In this conversation, I’m joined by Ali Vaez - Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President of the International Crisis Group to examine what is actually happening behind the headlines. Why the war has shifted into a grinding war of attrition, why Iran’s leadership prepared for a long confrontation rather than a quick collapse, and how the balance of power inside Iran may now be shifting toward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

We also discuss the growing divergence between U.S. and Israeli strategic objectives, the limits of military escalation, and the wider regional risks—from Kurdish separatism to the possibility of a broader regional conflict drawing in major powers.

If the fighting stops, it may only produce a fragile ceasefire, not a real resolution.

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In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Con Coughlin, Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor at The Daily Telegraph, to unpack the real strategy behind America’s military pressure on Iran. We explore how Donald Trump is using military leverage to force a new nuclear deal, why Iran’s weakened regional position has shifted the balance, and how Tehran is relying on diplomacy, Russia, and China to survive.

This is a conversation about coercion, credibility, and why the most powerful military deployments are often designed not to be used — but to reshape the negotiating table.

Chapters

00:00 The Military Buildup and Its Implications

10:01 Iran's Current Position and Internal Dynamics

19:57 The Role of External Influences and Regional Dynamics

29:42 Future Scenarios: Engagement or Conflict?

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In this episode I engage Larissa Brown, the defence editor at The Times, to discuss the current state of geopolitics, defence dynamics, and the implications of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. They explore insights from the Munich Security Conference, the UK's defence spending, military readiness, and the evolving threat posed by Russia. The conversation also delves into the US-UK defence relationship, public sentiment on military spending, and the challenges facing the UK military in terms of manpower and logistics. As they look ahead, they consider the impact of populism on European defence and the importance of collaboration among European nations.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Geopolitics and Defense Dynamics

02:38 Insights from the Munich Security Conference

05:41 Assessing the UK Military's Readiness

08:26 The Threat of Russia and Hybrid Warfare

11:22 UK's Defense Spending and Political Challenges

14:08 The US-UK Defense Relationship

16:43 European Strategic Autonomy and Cooperation

19:36 The Role of Drones in Modern Warfare

22:28 Joint Operations Against ISIS and Future Threats

25:02 The Future of UK Defense and European Relations

28:17 Looking Ahead: Key Global Events and Developments

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In this conversation, Edward Lucas discusses the ongoing war in Ukraine, the influence of Donald Trump on NATO and European defense, and the shifting dynamics of power in Europe. He emphasises the need for Europe to enhance its military autonomy and the importance of a united front against Russia. Lucas also addresses the concept of the 'shadow fleet' and the implications of European actions on Russia's strategic calculations. The discussion highlights the complexities of international relations and the necessity for Europe to adapt to changing geopolitical realities.

Chapters

00:00 Current State of Trilateral Talks

03:59 The Role of the United States in European Security

09:55 Europe's Defense Capabilities and Autonomy

15:47 The Shadow Fleet and European Responses

21:38 Final Thoughts and Future Outlook

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In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin engages with Trita Parsi, the Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute, to discuss the evolving geopolitical landscape in Iran and the broader Middle East. They delve into the implications of the recent leadership changes in Iran, particularly following the death of President Raisi, and how this has affected the political dynamics within the country.

Parsi emphasizes the incompetence of the previous government and the ongoing protests, highlighting the deep-seated frustrations among the Iranian populace regarding economic mismanagement and political repression. The conversation also touches on the significant internet blackout in Iran, which has hindered communication and information flow, further complicating the situation.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Iran's Current Landscape

14:47 Leadership Changes and Public Sentiment

17:44 The Impact of Protests and Government Response

21:45 Internet Shutdown: A Sign of Desperation

24:34 Violence and the Role of the IRGC

27:28 Civil Liberties and Digital Isolation

29:55 Geopolitical Context and Regional Dynamics

37:32 The Future of Iran in a Changing Middle East

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In this conversation, Martin Wolf discusses the current state of the global economy, emphasizing the importance of demographic changes, economic growth, and the resilience of economies in the face of challenges. He highlights the political fragility in Europe and the US, the risks associated with transatlantic relations, and the need for Europe to strengthen its position in a multipolar world. The discussion also touches on the fragmentation of regional blocks and the uncertainty surrounding the future of global governance.

Chapters

00:00 Reflections on Global Economic Trends

08:52 Political Fragility and Economic Growth

17:51 The Future of Transatlantic Relations

26:37 Europe's Strategic Challenges Ahead

35:07 Navigating a New World Order

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In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Dmitri Alperovitch delve into the intricate relationship between geoeconomics and geopolitics, particularly in the context of the United States' National Security Strategy. They discuss the implications of Trump's approach to international relations, the challenges Europe faces in achieving strategic autonomy, and the complexities surrounding tariffs and economic strategies. The dialogue also touches on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the potential risks associated with seizing Russian sovereign assets.

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In this episode of Global Gambit, host Pyotr Kurzin engages with Lawrence Freedman, a prominent figure in military strategy, to dissect the recent 28-point peace plan regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Kurzin expresses skepticism about the plan's legitimacy, noting its repetitive nature and the lack of serious diplomatic engagement. Freedman elaborates on the origins of the plan, highlighting its amateurish drafting and the absence of meaningful discussions between Russia and Ukraine. He critiques the plan's vague language and unrealistic expectations, suggesting that it may not lead to a viable resolution of the ongoing conflict.

As the conversation progresses, Freedman discusses the implications of the plan for both Ukraine and Russia, emphasizing the need for a more robust diplomatic framework. He also touches on the current military situation, including the challenges faced by both sides as winter approaches. The episode concludes with a reflection on the broader geopolitical landscape, urging listeners to consider the complexities of international relations and the potential for escalation in the region. Freedman's insights provide a nuanced understanding of the ongoing conflict and the challenges of achieving lasting peace.

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This conversation delves into the complex and evolving tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, focusing on the recent ceasefire, the role of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), and the broader geopolitical implications of the Taliban's legitimacy. Michael Kugelman provides insights into the historical context of the violence, the political instability in Pakistan, and the international mediation efforts by countries like Qatar and Turkey. The discussion also highlights the challenges Pakistan faces in managing its relationships with militant groups and the potential future scenarios for border security.

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In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Mitch Mechigian discuss the evolving landscape of geopolitics and finance, particularly focusing on the role of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins. They explore Trump's shift from skepticism to support for crypto, the normalization of digital currencies among nation-states, and the implications of geopolitical events on the crypto market. The discussion also highlights the rise of stablecoins as a significant player in the financial system and the potential for emerging markets to lead the next wave of crypto adoption.

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In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Martin Wolfe discuss the evolving landscape of global economics, focusing on the return to regionalism, the implications of geopolitical uncertainties, and the role of currencies in the modern economy. They explore the impact of Trump's trade policies, the rejection of globalization, and the future of the US dollar amidst rising nationalism and protectionism.

Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times, London. He was awarded the CBE (Commander of the British Empire) in 2000 “for services to financial journalism”.

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In this conversation, Dmitri Alperovitch discusses the intricate geopolitical dynamics involving Russia, Iran, and China, focusing on Iran's nuclear ambitions and the implications of recent Israeli military actions. The dialogue explores the vulnerabilities of Iran's leadership, the reactions of global powers, and the potential future of negotiations surrounding Iran's nuclear program. The conversation emphasizes the delicate balance of power in the region and the strategic decisions that Iran must navigate in light of its recent setbacks.

Dmitri Alperovitch is a geopolitical strategist and co-founder of the Silverado Policy Accelerator.

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In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Frank Giustra about the spiralling U.S. debt crisis, the fragility of dollar dominance, and how rivals like China and the BRICS bloc are accelerating moves away from the post-war financial order. From unfunded liabilities to currency alternatives, we unpack whether the U.S. is facing a market correction — or the beginning of the end of its global economic power.

Frank Giustra is a Canadian entrepreneur, philanthropist, and geopolitical thinker. He is co-chair of the International Crisis Group, founder of Lionsgate, and former CEO of Goldcorp.

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This conversation delves into the intricate relationship between energy geopolitics and conflict, particularly focusing on the Iran-Israel tensions and the implications for global oil markets. Anas Al-Hajji provides insights into the strategic importance of the Hormuz Strait, the dynamics of oil pricing, and the roles of major players like the US and Russia in shaping energy policies. The discussion also highlights the future of energy demand in light of climate change and technological advancements, emphasizing that the world cannot overlook Iran's potential in the energy sector.  

Dr. Anas F. Alhajji is a leading energy economist and former chief economist at NGP Energy Capital, known for his global expertise in oil markets, energy policy, and macroeconomic strategy.

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In this episode, former UK Defence Attaché John Foreman joins me to unpack the fragile diplomacy, shifting battlefield tactics, and the deeper power struggles shaping the war’s next phase. We explore how Russia’s economy is adapting under sanctions pressure - barely, and why internal shakeups in the Kremlin could point to a regime preparing for escalation, not peace.

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Ankit provides insights into the current crisis, comparing it to past conflicts and discussing the role of the United States in de-escalation efforts. The conversation also touches on the influence of domestic politics, the evolving military capabilities of both nations, and the potential impact of China's military developments on the region.

Ankit Panda is Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Watch our talk on YouTube: https://youtu.be/P3xwmHg9g7I. Support the show on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/theglobalgambit

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She delves into the evolution of the group under Prigozhin, highlighting its use in proxy wars and mercenary operations in Africa, Ukraine, and Syria. We also cover the power struggles between Putin and Prigozhin leading to the group's collapse and an examination of Wagner’s lingering influence on global security.

Candace Rondeaux is the Senior Director of Future Frontiers at New America. Check out her book, Putin's Sledgehammer here: https://amzn.to/4me0FMB

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The conversation delves into the strategic significance of the Panama Canal amidst rising US-China tensions, exploring the implications of recent US military agreements and the Panamanian government's response to pressure from the Trump administration. Experts discuss the historical context of US-Panama relations, public sentiment in Panama, and the potential economic consequences of climate change on the canal's operations. The dialogue emphasizes the delicate balance Panama must maintain between its relationships with the US and China, as well as the internal political challenges it faces.

Will Freeman is a Fellow for Latin America Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, where he focuses on regional politics, corruption, organized crime, and U.S.–Latin America relations.

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In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Rohit Goel discuss the current state of the global economy, focusing on the impact of Donald Trump's presidency on economic policies, particularly regarding China and emerging markets. They explore the challenges facing China, the dynamics of U.S.-China relations, and the implications of de-dollarization. The discussion also touches on the potential for BRICS to create a common currency, the role of cryptocurrencies, and the future of emerging markets in a multipolar world.

Rohit Goel is Partner and Head of Global Macro Research at Breakout Capital, where he leads analysis on emerging markets, global financial stability, and cross-asset macro strategy.

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We discuss the limited leverage the US has in influencing both Russia and Ukraine, the challenges of negotiating peace, and the realities of a war of attrition. We touch on the role of NATO, European defence strategies, and the significance of mineral deals in the context of US support for Ukraine.

This episode is sponsored by Military Metals Corp (CSE: MILI, OTCQB: MILIF, FSE: QN90). Learn more: www.militarymetalscorp.com/investors.

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In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin and Chris Fenton discuss the emergence of DeepSeek, an AI technology developed in China, and its implications for US-China relations, national security, and the influence of technology on global narratives. They explore the role of open-source technology, the impact of platforms like TikTok, and the complexities of Trump's foreign policy towards China. The discussion highlights the challenges and opportunities presented by technological advancements and the need for the US to navigate its alliances and economic policies carefully.

Chris Fenton is a U.S.–China expert, author, and former Hollywood executive who led major film collaborations between the two countries and now advises on geopolitics, business, and media strategy.

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I also argue that while tariffs may seem beneficial in the short term, they could lead to significant long-term challenges, including supply chain disruptions, increased prices for consumers, and weakened alliances with traditional partners. The discussion emphasises the interconnectedness of economic policies and global power dynamics.

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This time Pyotr discusses the major geopolitical risks and themes that could shape 2025, including the implications of Donald Trump's return to power, the ongoing US-China strategic competition, the autocratic relations involving Russia and Iran, the rise of political violence and extremism, and the increasing risks associated with technology and AI. Each of these themes is explored in depth, highlighting the interconnectedness of global events and the potential consequences for international stability.

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In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Ankit Panda, about the deepening political crisis in South Korea and its wider regional implications. They discuss the impeachment proceedings against President Yoon Suk-yeol, the potential rise of progressive opposition leader Lee Jae-myung, and the resilience of South Korea’s democratic institutions. The conversation also explores North Korea’s expanding involvement in the war in Ukraine, China’s geopolitical manoeuvring, and what these developments mean for the future of U.S.–South Korea relations and security dynamics on the Korean Peninsula.

Ankit Panda is the Stanton Senior Fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, specialising in East Asian security, nuclear strategy, and U.S. foreign policy toward the Koreas.

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In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Wladimir van Wilgenburg, journalist at the Kurdish Chronicle, about the dramatic collapse of the Assad regime in Syria and the shifting power dynamics across the region. They discuss the rapid advances by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham and other rebel groups, the fall of key cities including Aleppo, Homs, and Hama, and the surprising absence of intervention from Assad’s key allies, Russia and Iran. The conversation also explores the roles of Kurdish forces, Turkish-backed rebels, and the potential impact of an incoming Trump presidency on Syria’s future and broader Middle East stability.

Wladimir van Wilgenburg is a journalist and analyst specialising in Kurdish and Middle Eastern affairs, with a focus on Syria, Iraq, and regional conflict dynamics.

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In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Marlene Laruelle about the ideological foundations of Vladimir Putin’s regime and Russia’s evolving identity under his leadership. They discuss the tension between restoring the Soviet Union versus the Russian Empire, the influence of strongman politics, and how Russia’s future may unfold amid growing friction with NATO and shifting U.S. leadership. The conversation also explores the prospects for democratic change, the role of Russian nationalism, and the West’s ability to shape societal trends within Russia.

Marlène Laruelle is a research professor at George Washington University and an expert on Russian ideology, nationalism, and authoritarianism in the post-Soviet space.

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We explore the complexities of defining victory, the role of NATO, and the technological adaptations in warfare. The discussion also touches on the involvement of North Korea and China, as well as the complacency of European nations in responding to the threat posed by Russia.

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In this conversation, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Richard Gowan, UN Director at the International Crisis Group, about the growing challenges facing the United Nations and the leadership of Secretary-General António Guterres. They discuss the contrasting messages delivered by world leaders at the UN General Assembly, including those from President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu, and explore the UN’s role in addressing humanitarian crises and global conflicts. Gowan reflects on the limitations of the General Assembly, the pressures facing Guterres, and the uncertain future of multilateral diplomacy in a fractured international landscape.

Richard Gowan is the UN Director at the International Crisis Group, where he analyses the United Nations’ role in global conflict resolution, diplomacy, and multilateral policy.

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Pyotr is joined by the esteemed Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies, King's College London. We focus on the war in Ukraine and the conditions for a negotiated settlement and the challenges in reaching any such agreement. We debate motivations behind Putin's actions and the implications for the use of military force in international relations including role of NATO and the concerns of Russia regarding its expansion.

The principal themes discussed in the conversation include the challenges faced by NATO in satisfying Putin, the impact of events like the Kosovo War and the Orange Revolution on Russia's perception of the West, the importance of self-determination, the role of international law and norms, the rise of China as a global power, the complexities of the Russia-China relationship, and the need for the West to be aware of its limitations and engage in honest conversations about trade-offs.

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I am joined by fellow YouTuber James Ker-Lindsay, and expert of Cyprus to cover this forgotten crisis and example of how complex geopolitics can be. We debate how Greek vs Turkish Cypriots differ in their feelings over separation, how the island has involved in the past decades, the roles of Britain, Greece, and Turkey especially, and why a 'two-state solution' may be more likely than reunification.

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This time l am joined by Ryan Bohl, Senior Middle East and North Africa Analyst at RANE (Risk Assistance Network + Exchange) to discuss this latest escalation. I challenged Ryan on how likely a Israel-Hezbollah war is, who and which assets are most at risk, how Netanyahu is costing the Israeli economy, whether the US can reign in Israel or prevent full-scale conflict, and if Iran could get pulled in.

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That's according to Dmitri Alperovitch - Dmitri Alperovitch, Chairman of Silverado Policy Accelerator, Co-Founder of Crowdstrike, and author of the new book 'World on the Brink. A prolific voice in the areas of geopolitics, grand strategy, and cybersecurity, I challenged Dmitri to explain why he thinks we're in Cold War 2.0, what a Chinese invasion would look like, how the US needs to step up, and each's shortcomings and volatiles that could worsen escalation risks even more.

Pick up Dmitri's book: https://www.amazon.co.uk/World-Brink-America-Twenty-First-Century/dp/1541704096.

Watch this interview and more on the YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7-TPqKMViddKZeo4K2P2jg

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Due to being MIA for so long - here is another episode! Normal service of the show will resume hereon-out, with 2 episodes a month. If you want more, subscribe to the YouTube.

The Russia-Ukraine War is the most documented conflict in history. One of the darkest, toughest parts is recording evidence to expose Putin's war crimes and hold this war in line to international humanitarian law (law of armed conflict). A pioneer in this is Oleksandra Matviichuk, a Ukrainian human rights lawyer, head of the Center for Civil Liberties and a 2022 Nobel Laureate.

We cover the importance of the US aid package to Ukraine, Oleksandra touring America and rallying Congress for support, her work documenting Russian war crimes, why the Russia Ukraine War is threatening human rights international humanitarian law (law of armed conflict) and much more.

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To explain why, Bilal Saab - professor at Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service & Dr Sanam Vakil - Director of Chatham House’s MENA programme, joined me for this extraordinarily timely conversation.

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Its so severe, the US and UK have initiated airstrikes in Yemen, but has made little difference and if anything only emboldens the Houthis more and who say they wont stop until Israel ceases its operations in Gaza. However, the long-term of these events on shipping are unprecedented, and not merely about the Houthis actions, but those of the ship insurers, explains Sal Dr. Salvatore Mercogliano - Chair of the Department of History, Criminal Justice and Politics at Campbell University. And the ramifications really are redefining global economic processes as well as geopolitical tensions.

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Returning guest, Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Program at the Wilson Centre sat down with me to outline, the challenges and details of these 3 countries on the geopolitical landscape. And while they all share elections, the reasons for, and potential consequences from, vary significantly, in a globe already highly unpredictable.

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Yet, COPs have poor reputations, with little tangible products or outcomes occurring - other than an agreement of inaction. But, as l spoke to Nazanine Moshiri - senior analyst at the International Crisis Group and attending COP28, this years began with an uplifting start - implementation of the loss and damage fund. But that's just the start, and as Nazanine made clear, there is real need to include one specific aspect: climate-conflict and security challenges.

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But why this fascination, arguably infatuation for the BRICS? Is it purely about it removing the US hegemony or something else? What of the expansion consisting of 6 new members? My guest Ali Wyne, senior analyst in Global Macro at Eurasia Group, joined me for an in-depth conversation and exchange of ideas in this thoroughly enlightening yet entertaining episode.

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Much of this rests on the near-inevitable ground operation the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) will undertake - the severer, harsher their approach, the more it might trigger a response from others, namely Hezbollah, because of a need to protect, defend, and similar motivations to their brethren. But what could that look like? What form of operations, what broader strategic objectives? And what about the relevance of external forces, such as US input, Iranian support and more?

Guests, Bryan Cunningham - former CIA analyst, and Patrick Fox, USAF Veteran, broke down some of the details from their experiences on this highly sensitive, hugely complex matter. Indeed, this podcast isnt attempting to cover all aspects and historical context, merely provide some takes to better make sense of the situation.

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Since June 24th 2016, the UK has had its entire economy, society and political environment largely defined by a singular issue - Brexit. The word itself, before diving into anything at all, is a source of contention.

Yet, very little to many, including myself, has changed. Certainly not in terms of improvements. Merely a country that is suffering an identity crisis as much as it is political turmoil, economic stagnation and social polarisation.

However, it doesnt necessarily need to stay that way, and are there still ways to make the most of it? Can we realise 'buccaneering Britain'? Or will be remain at risk of 'boiling the frog' - both these analogies and more are outlined by Peter Foster, Public Policy Editor at the Financial Times in this episode and his new book.

Peter's Book - What Went Wrong With Brexit And What We Can Do About It

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But its not that clear cut, and Vanda Felbab-Brown of Brookings Institute, emphasises that while there is some support for Russia, its definitely not that high; while the hatred of ECOWAS, the regional body that could lead a military intervention to reinstate Bazoum is not as high either.

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So what happened, and why? What about these clashes made them worse and why was NATO directly involved? Why were Western capitals critical of Kosovo over these events when they're usually defensive? How does this all impact Ukraine and Russian interests?

These themes were put to Ivana Stradner, research fellow at Foundation for Defence of Democracies (FDD). During this live talk, we also joined by Colonel (R) Jeffrey Fischer and former diplomatic defence official to Kosovo.

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But which is right? What did Macron mean and where does he stand? I put these questions to Tara Varma, visiting fellow at the Brookings Institutions, Center on the United States and Europe, and French expert. Prior to that, she was senior fellow and the head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

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In this Part 1, of a mini-series, Gonul joined  @theglobalgambit  for a preview to the election, Erdogan's resilience, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu & the main opposition, and more! Stay tuned for Part 2 on foreign policy implications.

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There were also audience questions that didn't make the final cut. You can find those available on Patreon when you sign up for as little as $2. 

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1. Is the UN capable of doing more?
2. Is it time for the Security Council to be modernised and if so how?
3. Has Sec Gen Antonio Guterres be an effective leader?
4. Why should we remain optimistic about the UN in 2023?

There were some additional questions from the audience that didn't make the final cut. Find those available on Patreon. 

Guest Profile

Richard Gowan oversees Crisis Group’s advocacy work at the United Nations, liaising with diplomats and UN officials in New York. He has also worked as a consultant for the UN Department of Political Affairs, the UN Office of the Special Representative of the Secretary-General on International Migration and more. 

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1. What is NALS and why's it matter?
2. How much are current events influencing regional priorities?
3. Did the capture of El Chapo's son play in Mexico's thinking?
4. How do Canadian-Mexican relations play vis-a-vis the US?
5. What should we make of this growing 'near-shoring' or 'friend-shoring'?

We also had a few audience questions, some that dived deeper in Mexican affairs and also the Ambassador's thoughts on LATAM given Peru.

Find those available on Patreon. 

Guest Profile

Amb. Juan Jose Gomez Camacho is a veteran diplomat, serving most recently as Ambassador of Mexico to Canada and 30+ years of a career! He has also served as Ambassador to Singapore, Myanmar and Brunei, as well as the EU, Luxembourg, and the United Nations as Mexico's Permanent Representative. 

This talk happened in the collaboration from Johns Hopkins SAIS's Foreign Policy Institute (FPI).

Don't forget you can sign up to my Substack too where l share my reflections about my talk with my guests, including the Amb!

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Guest Profile

Spook: Began their account in November 2021 to follow the Russian build up on Ukraine's border and began posting various updates, especially concerning graphic content.

The Intel Hub: Despite already a full-time analyst, this account began focused on the war looking at imagery, footage, and materials, focusing on OSINT, aggregation and analysis.

OSINTdefender: Acted as a OSINT monitor with an emphasis on Eastern Europe and increasingly the Central Asian / Eurasian regions. Holds a background in geospatial analysis.

You can access additional, unpublished content/questions from this  interview, by visiting Patreon and pledging as little as $2 a month!

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1. What is the status of democracy vs autocracy?
2. How much is the West to blame for what happened in 2022? 
3. Where is the Russian airforce and why hasn't it been used? 
4. What could the endgame look like and the prospect of negotiations?

This event was done in collaboration with Johns Hopkin's Foreign Policy Institute. Many thanks especially to Sophia Salazar RA for helping arrange the talk!

Guest Profile

Alex Vindman - a retired Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Army and former Director for European Affairs at the National Security Council. He is authoring the book: Here, Right Matters: An American Story & currently pursuing his doctorate degree at Johns Hopkins.

You can access additional, unpublished content/questions from Alex Vindman's interview too, by visiting Patreon and pledging as little as $2 a month!

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1. What triggered the protests and how severe were they?
2. Is there a high probability they will continue?
3. How does this affect Xi's popularity or his decision-making?
4. Are these trends and other internal issues undermining Chinese foreign policy?
5. What could these developments mean for Taiwan?

You can access additional, unpublished content/questions from James's interview too, by visiting Patreon and pledging as little as $2 a month!

Guest Profile

James Palmer - deputy editor at Foreign Policy and writes FP’s weekly China Brief newsletter. He authored The Bloody White Baron: The Extraordinary Story of the Russian Nobleman Who Became the Last Khan of Mongolia and The Death of Mao: The Tangshan Earthquake and the Birth of the New China.

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• What are the current conditions around types of drones and their use in war?
• How have the Russians been using them in Ukraine?
• What do the supply chains between Iran and Russia look like?
• Does their use fall under conventional war crimes?
• How should and could people piloting drones be prosecuted?

Have and want to ask a different question - follow Pyotr on Twitter to participate in the next event!

Guest Profile

Major John Spencer - an expert and advisor on urban warfare currently serving as Chair of the Urban War Studies with Madison Policy Forum, previously doing so at the Modern War Institute at West Point.

Patrick Fox - former Air Force Security Forces airman who spent time in a diverse set of roles and achieved a Bachelor's in Political Science from Tennessee State University and Master's in Security from UCL.

Sam Bendett - an Adviser with CNA Strategy, Policy, Plans and Programs Center (SP3), where he is a member of the Russia Studies Program. He is also an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

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• How have the conditions changed in Tigray, as well as across other provinces in Ethiopia?
• What is the role of Eritrea in the conflict and how significant is it? 
• Have the interferences from others like Turkey or UAE with drones influenced the direction of the war? 
• What could be a realistic and mutually-acceptable solution for both sides?
• Could the conflict destabilize the Horn of Africa? 

Guest Profile

Will Davison, is the International Crisis Group's Ethiopia expert. Previously he was Bloomberg’s Ethiopia correspondent from 2010 until 2017 and has also published in The Guardian, Foreign Policy, Al Jazeera, and other international media. In 2018 he founded Ethiopia Insight.

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• What are the current conditions around nuclear weapons and the existing treaties? 
• How does Russia approach nuclear weapons and their treatment compared to the West?
• What would be the propensity for Putin to use them and how would the West/NATO respond?
• If Russia did use them, how would that influence other countries who want to pursue nuclear proliferation? 
• How significant would tactical nuclear weapons be next to strategic ones/ICBMs? 
• How can we improve the narrative surrounding nuclear weapons? 

Guest Profiles

This episode had the following experts:

Dr. Alexander Bollfrass works as a Senior Researcher at the ETH Zurich Center for Security Studies. He holds a Ph.D. in Security Studies from Princeton University and worked on nuclear issues at Harvard University's Project on Managing the Atom, as well as the Stimson Center and the Arms Control Association.

Dr. Nicole Grajewski is a Stanton Nuclear Security Post-Doctoral Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. A scholar of Russian foreign policy, she holds a Ph.D. in International Relations from the University of Oxford.

Dr. Stephen Herzog is senior Research at the ETH Zurich Center for Security Studies, as well as an Associate of Harvard University's Project on Managing the Atom. He worked for the Federation of American Scientists and at the U.S. Department of Energy. Stephen holds a Ph.D. in Political Science from Yale University.

Surprise appearances were also made by:

Heather Williams, director of the Project on Nuclear Issues and a senior fellow in the International Security Program at CSIS.

Pavel Podvig, a Senior Researcher in the WMD Programme at UNIDIR. 

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• Since the takeover, and as international attention has shifted elsewhere, how have conditions in Afghanistan changed?
• What has the return of the Taliban meant for civil society, particularly women?
• Who, if anyone, has recognized the Taliban or given them legitimacy as a proper government? 
• If most countries, particularly the West, aren't willing to deal with the Taliban, how should humanitarian support be provided to reduce crises?
• What threat has Islamic State and its regional branch, ISK posed?
• Should there be partial engagement with the Taliban if they compromise on their governance and reintroduce them to the global stage? 

Guest Profiles

This special episode how an all-star line-up of experts:

Hasib Noor - a specialist in Sirah and Islamic history, Hasib studied at the Islamic University of Madinah. He is the founder of director of the Legacy Institute and Prophetic Legacy.
Graeme Smith - a senior consultant at International Crisis Group (ICG), Graeme also worked in the UN Mission to Afghanistan (UNAMA) as a Political Affairs Officer.
Mariam Wardak - a longstanding human rights activist, Mariam has been a leading voice in raising awareness of the struggle of women and girls in Afghanistan. Mariam was also a Senior Advisor to the NSA and Strategic Planning Adviser at the Ministry of Counter Narcotics.
Timor Sharan - a former senior analyst at ICG, Timor is a fellow at the LSE Ideas foreign policy think tank and Founder and Director of the Afghanistan Policy Lab.

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• As the war has evolved, how have the Ukrainian parliament's responsibilities changed?
• To what extent have the US, UK, or other intel played a decisive role in helping Ukraine with its defense such as by striking the Moskva?
• Was the Kherson front a feint for the Kharkiv counteroffensive? How much has it helped reinvigorate Ukrainian morale?
• What role has civil society and social media played in directing the military responses?
• How should post-war reconstruction efforts be undertaken? How will Russia be ensured to pay reparations while Putin remains in power?

Guest Profile 

Pyotr was joined by Lesia Vasylenko, Ukraine MP of the Voice/Holos Party in the 9th Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada. Lesia is also a member of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, President of the Inter-Parliamentary Unions Bureau of Women’s Parliamentarians, and founder of the Legal Hundred, a human rights NGO. During the discussion, Lesia based in Kyiv, mentions that air raid sirens are going on around her, illustrating the very real threat she faces daily, alongside so many Ukrainians from the Russian forces.

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• How have the conditions changed as the war progressed?
• What has been the response of Ukrainians entering Poland and also local populations receiving them?
• How has the reputation of some agencies been affected, in light of actions by some like the Red Cross or Amnesty?
• Is too much pressure or expectation put on NGOs, without substantial support from bigger donors like the UN or EU?
• Why hasn't there been better coordination between NGOs or relevant stakeholders and what lessons might we take forward?

Episode 16 sees your host Pyotr rejoined by Professor Steven Schrage - of the John's Hopkins SAIS's FPI and former Deputy Assistant Sec of State, and special guest Sebastian Stachowski, a senior officer in the Polish branch of the ICRC, to discuss the evolving humanitarian crisis and responses more broadly from within Poland.  Recorded in the Ukraine Sitrep Room - the 24/7 longest and largest audio room in history, the guests then took a string of questions from the live audience on Clubhouse.

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• Since the Ukraine War began, how have sentiments changed around the feasibility and desire for a renewed deal?
• Is there a genuine appetite for the Iranian Deal or have they been hoping to squeeze the US and others for concessions?  
• How should we assess the Russian role and positioning in negotiations given their activities and interests elsewhere?
• Were efforts to renew any deal futile, what would be the best alternative - a new deal or a new sanctions program?  

For this episode, your host Pyotr interviews Jason Brodsky, Policy Director of United Against Nuclear Iran, or UANI, since 2016. Previously, he was Research Associate and Advisor to Aaron David Miller at the Wilson Center & Senior Middle East Analyst at Iran International.  Recorded on Twitter Spaces, Jason then takes questions from the live audience who challenge him on some of his points and perspectives raised during his conversation with Pyotr.

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• How does one compare or apply the theories of liberalism and realism in the current geopolitical climate?
• To what extent should we be concerned by the growing disassociation between liberalism and democracy? 
• What role, if any, does the nation-state have in influencing the issue and unpredictabilities surrounding Taiwan? 
• How much does the West balance supporting Ukraine to uphold democracy vs alienating or compromising domestic unity and exacerbating polarization/isolationism?
• Should there be a Southeast Asian NATO (re)created like the previous SEATO?
• What should the USA's prevailing grand strategy be in this new multipolarity? 

For this episode, your host Pyotr interviews a world-renowned figure in the form of Francis Fukuyama, author of The End of History & the Last Man, but moreover, a political juggernaut who has influenced the discipline, foreign policy, and approaches to areas like international relations, geopolitics, or democratization. Professor Fukuyama is Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI), a faculty member of FSI's Center on Democracy, Development and the Rule of Law (CDDRL), Director of Stanford's Ford Dorsey Master's in International Policy, and former Bernard L. Schwartz Professor of IPE at the Johns Hopkins University SAIS. 

His latest book, Liberalism & its Discontent released in May 2022. He also has a blog, Frankly Fukuyama, on American Purpose. 

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And if you're unable able to do that - no worries. Please leave a review, or share GG. This small action has BIG impact in helping it grow and broaden its visibility to more audiences.

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• Why is the Wagner Group increasingly active in Ukraine and what could their objectives be? 
• Should we expect the Wagner Group to take a leading role in trying to improve Russian fortunes on the eastern front? 
• Is there an overlap or similarity in its behavior between Libya and Ukraine?
• How instrumental have they been in controlling or influencing the direction of food supplies? 

This time, Pyotr is joined by Hafed Al Ghwell, the latest senior fellow of Johns Hopkins SAIS's Foreign Policy Institute (FPI) to tackle these questions and more. Hafed is also a Senior Advisor at Maxwell Stamp, an international economic consultancy firm, where he specializes in the Middle East and North Africa political economy issues. He is also a Senior Advisor with Oxford Analytica, the global risk consultancy. 

As usual, the first 40 mins see an interview-styled discussion, followed by a 15 mins Q/A with audience members who were listening live to the conversation, this time recorded on Twitter Spaces. If you want to join next time, be sure to follow Pyotr at @pkurzin to when future events are taking place!

Considering Chipping in to Global Gambit (GG)

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So, if any of those resonate with you, consider chipping to the GG, as allows me to improve its quality and elevate the experience for you.

And if you're unable able to do that - no worries. Please leave a review, or share GG. This small action has BIG impact in helping it grow and broaden its visibility to more audiences.

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• Substack: https://pyotrskurzin.substack.com/

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• What does the Ukraine-Russia grain deal mean for global food supplies and the crisis?
• Should we expect this to lead to the potential for a broader ceasefire or peace deal being made? 
• How does the food crisis, especially in the Middle East, be directly or indirectly affected by the war?
• How has the deal and the war more widely, influenced the perception/relevancy of the UN?
• How does climate risk influence food insecurities? What about the role of women specifically?

In this episode, Pyotr attempts to put aside his wonderment as he puts the questions above and more to Sir Mark Lowcock, the former UN UnderSecretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator & Head of OCHA (Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs).  With more than 30 years of humanitarian and development experience, Sir Mark was also Permanent Secretary for the Department for International Development (DFID)leading the UK's humanitarian response to conflicts in Iraq, Libya, and Syria alongside natural disasters.

Sir Mark's book: Relief Chief: A Manifesto for Saving Lives in Dire Times is available for purchase now!

Considering Chipping in to Global Gambit (GG)

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So, if any of those resonate with you, consider chipping to the GG, as allows me to improve its quality and elevate the experience for you.

And if you're unable able to do that - no worries. Please leave a review, or share GG. This small action has BIG impact in helping it grow and broaden its visibility to more audiences.

Links

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• Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/login?ru=%2Ftheglobalgambit
• Substack: https://pyotrskurzin.substack.com/

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Follow The Show

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• What does Turkey seek to gain from supporting Ukraine but also engaging Russia?
• Why did Erdogan threaten to block Swedish/Finnish NATO ascension? 
• How genuine are its attempts to broker peace between the two sides? 
• How integral is Erdogan's personal ambition to Turkey's current behavior? 
• How might Turkey exploit Russia's waning influence in overlapping areas/regions and exert its power?

Enjoy the conversation? Consider becoming a patron on Patreon. Don't want to miss out on participating - follow Pyotr to know of the next event!

These questions are raised by Pyotr, as he is joined by Turkish expert, expatriate, and friend, Emre Uslu - a journalist, academic, and activist. Indeed, Emre's expansive knowledge and vocal criticism of Turkish internal affairs, Kurdish autonomy, and its foreign policy have resulted in Emre being designated in the blue category of the "most wanted terrorist list" published by the Ministry of Interior of the Republic of Turkey since 28 October 2015. 

This episode is special too as it is the inaugural recorded on Twitter Spaces, involving new and diverse contributors. That said, the format remains the same, with a 45 min discussion between Pyotr & Emre, before there a few audiences questions to challenge Emre, this time concerning a post-Erdogan Turkey, the removal of its NATO membership, and how Turkey's ambitions in MENA may change depending on the direction of the Ukraine War.

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So, if any of those resonate with you, consider chipping to the GG, as allows me to improve its quality and elevate the experience for you.

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