The Numbers

Another MP crosses floor to Liberals ahead of Monday's byelections

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 17:00:00 GMT

It was rumoured to be in the offing, but on Wednesday news came of the surprising floor-crossing of Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong MP Marilyn Gladu from the Conservatives to the Liberals, putting Mark Carney’s government even closer to a majority. We started the podcast unaware of the news, but we eventually offer some hot takes on the crossing minutes after it was announced.

Still, even with Gladu the Liberals need some wins to make their majority official on Monday night in the three federal byelections being held in the two Toronto ridings of University—Rosedale and Scarborough Southwest and the Quebec riding of Terrebonne.

Rarely are byelections so impactful. But beyond the question of whether or not the Liberals will win them, the three contests will be a gauge of where the Conservatives, NDP and Bloc stand in public opinion. Can Pierre Poilievre shake off his party’s poor polling numbers? Can Yves-François Blanchet take back Terrebonne, which was once a stronghold? And can Avi Lewis show any signs of life for his NDP?

Join us for a livestream of the byelection results on YouTube, starting at 8:30 PM ET on Monday!

We set you up for Monday’s byelections with some over/unders on this week’s (early) episode of The Numbers. We also break down some of the latest polls and discuss the final days of the CAQ’s leadership race, which comes to a close on Sunday.

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Carney's majority, Poilievre's challenge and Lewis's debut

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 19:00:00 GMT

Three federal byelections that could give Mark Carney a majority government are now less than two weeks away. Pierre Poilievre is trying out some new approaches against the Liberal government as he tries to close the gap and the NDP now has a new permanent leader in Avi Lewis. Meanwhile, a new poll out of Quebec shows the provincial election in October could prove to be a toss-up.

Stuff is about to get real out there.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polls and where things stand as this political spring starts to heat up. Plus, we take a peak at some leaked data about how NDP members ranked their ballot on the weekend. We also chat about a new poll out of Quebec, where the provincial election slated in October is looking tougher and tougher to predict.

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Avi Lewis wins

Sun, 29 Mar 2026 17:00:00 GMT

Avi Lewis secured the NDP leadership in Winnipeg today, getting 56% of the vote on the first ballot. In this quick-hit episode of The Numbers, we give our initial reactions to the results and chat about where the NDP under Lewis goes from here.

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Is the NDP leadership Avi Lewis's to lose?

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 19:00:00 GMT

The most predictive indicator of most leadership races is money. And in the NDP leadership race, Avi Lewis has raised the most of it — by far. Does that make him the favourite to win the NDP crown on Sunday?

This week on The Numbers, before we both jet off to Winnipeg, we set our expectations for how the vote will unfurl this weekend. We also take a look at what some new poll numbers say about the candidates for the leadership as well as the future of the NDP. Then, we break down the new federal polls (including on views of Pierre Poilievre’s appearance on The Joe Rogan Experience podcast) and take a quick look at some new provincial numbers out of Manitoba and Ontario before we close with an NDP-themed Quiz.

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Have we hit Carney's ceiling and Poilievre's floor?

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 19:00:00 GMT

With some polls suggesting the Liberals are nearing 50% support while the Conservatives are slipping toward 30%, one has to wonder: has Mark Carney hit his ceiling and has Pierre Poilievre hit his floor?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polling numbers and the unprecedented scores being put up by the Liberals. We also discuss provincial polling from across the country as a new poll shows which premiers are up and which premiers are down. Then, Philippe has another Quiz.

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Floor-crossing + Byelections = Carney majority?

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 19:00:00 GMT

Mark Carney’s Liberals have a majority in sight after adding Nunavut MP Lori Idlout to their ranks. The former New Democrats has pushed the Liberals to 170 seats in the House of Commons, meaning they are only two short of a majority with three vacancies set to be filled in a trio of byelections on April 13.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss Idlout’s floor-crossing, the byelection calendar and what it all means for the Liberals and the opposition parties. Is the NDP in serious trouble? What does a majority mean for Pierre Poilievre’s leadership? We also chat about the latest fundraising figures from the NDP leadership contest and break down all of the new federal polls published over the last week. Then, it’s the triomphant return of The Quiz!

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Carney, Poilievre go abroad in search of wins

Thu, 05 Mar 2026 20:00:00 GMT

Both Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre were overseas this week, as the prime minister made stops in India, Australia and Japan and the opposition leader visited Germany and the United Kingdom. But while the trips were foreign, the politics are always domestic.

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at polling numbers that shed some light on what Canadians think about a few hot button foreign policy issues and what bearing that could have on Liberal and Conservative support. We also chat about some of the latest federal polling numbers, including a new Léger poll that awards the Liberals a 14-point lead. Plus, we discuss some new provincial polls in Alberta, British Columbia and Quebec, where support for independence has hit a new low.

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Carney's Liberals are up big in Alberta. Is it for real?

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 20:00:00 GMT

As the polling gap widens between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, a surprising new trend has emerged. In Alberta, three new polls suggest the margin between the two parties has closed significantly. What is behind this shift in the polls, is it the real deal and what could it mean for the next election?

We break it all down on this week’s episode of The Numbers. We also discuss the results of the Chicoutimi byelection as well as some new provincial polling out of Quebec and Ontario, where Doug Ford has dismissed numbers that show he might be losing a step on his rivals.

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Poilievre on the ropes as Carney's majority in sight

Thu, 19 Feb 2026 20:00:00 GMT

With the decision of Edmonton Riverbend MP Matt Jeneroux to cross from the Conservatives over to the Liberals — rather than resign as he said he would back in November — Pierre Poilievre’s leadership of the Conservative Party is again under the microscope. And with one additional MP joining the government benches and a series of byelections on the horizon, Mark Carney and the Liberals are within sight of the majority government they were denied in the 2025 federal election.

This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jeneroux’s floor-crossing, the over-turning of the Terrebonne election result and the potential resignation of NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice, who is reportedly eyeing greener (or more orange?) pastures at the provincial level. We also have some new polls to discuss out of British Columbia, Ontario, Nova Scotia and Quebec.

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Liberals in majority territory, but there's no election — yet?

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 20:00:00 GMT

With the polls showing a spike in support for the Liberals, speculation has also spiked about an early election. What do the polls say about whether Mark Carney’s Liberals or Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives should want to head back on the campaign trail in 2026?

This week on The Numbers, we break down the state of the federal race and discuss whether or not Carney’s bump is an extension of his honeymoon or an entirely new thing. We also chat about the round of byelections that we can expect in the next few months and what they mean for both federal and Ontario politics. Plus, a new poll on Alberta independence shows some stark divides in the province that complicate things for Danielle Smith (and Poilievre).

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Poilievre prevails in Calgary but trails in the polls

Tue, 03 Feb 2026 20:00:00 GMT

Pierre Poilievre received 87.4% support in his leadership review at the Conservative convention in Calgary — a number we said in last week’s episode would be the “most boring” because it would be neither extremely high nor problematically low. But now that Poilievre has passed this test, he has to face his next challenge: closing the widening gap in the polls between his Conservatives and Mark Carney’s Liberals.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the aftermath of Poilievre’s leadership review and what the polls are saying about the state of the national race. We also chat about the NDP leadership contest, where Avi Lewis has opened a wide fundraising lead. Plus, we have some new provincial polls out of B.C., Alberta and Quebec.

(Our discussion of the upcoming federal byelections was before the Liberals announced they had nominated Ontario NDP MPP Doly Begum as their candidate in Scarborough Southwest.)

Scheduling note: Starting next week, new episodes of The Numbers will be published on Thursdays. Look for the next episode of The Numbers on February 12!

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Carney gets post-Davos bump as Poilievre falls further back

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 20:00:00 GMT

Following Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech at Davos last week, the polls appear to have shifted in his favour — and against that of Pierre Poilievre. With the House of Commons now sitting again, the year’s political season just getting started and Poilievre only a few days away from his leadership review in Calgary, what do these numbers mean for where things go from here on the federal political scene?

We break it all down on this week’s episode of The Numbers. We also take a look at some new polls coming out of the provincial level in Ontario, Quebec and Alberta. Where do voters stand on the idea of Alberta independence?

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Poilievre's negatives spike. Is it a blip or a problem?

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 20:00:00 GMT

With less than two weeks to go before Pierre Poilievre’s leadership review in Calgary, a new poll shows a spike in his negative ratings to a new high. Is it a one-off blip or a sign of a deeper problem for the Conservative leader?

We break down the federal polls on this week’s episode of The Numbers. We also discuss François Legault’s bombshell resignation last week and how it shuffles the deck ahead of Quebec’s provincial election in October.

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New year, new byelections?

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 20:00:00 GMT

Chrystia Freeland, the former cabinet minister and Liberal leadership contestant whose resignation letter was the final nail in the coffin of Justin Trudeau’s prime ministership, finally vacated her seat in the House of Commons last week. As Mark Carney tries to find his way to the magic number of 172 seats needed for a majority government, he now has one more to fill.

And it likely won’t be the last.

In the first episode of 2026 of The Numbers, we take a look at the one byelection we know will happen soon and the other potential seats that could be vacated in the coming weeks or months. We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers as well as the state of the B.C. Conservative, Quebec Liberal and Ontario Liberal leadership races. Plus, there’s a new poll out of Nova Scotia.

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Predicting 2026 in provincial politics

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 20:00:00 GMT

After tackling the year in federal politics to come, we now turn our attentions to the provincial scenes.

In this second part of our Over/Under Contest, we set our lines for the Quebec election in October. We also make our predictions for potential other provincial elections, premier resignations, leadership race outcomes and where party leaders might end the year in the polls.

Thanks for all of your support for the podcast throughout 2025 and we wish you all the best in 2026!

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Predicting 2026 in federal politics!

Tue, 23 Dec 2025 20:00:00 GMT

After the beating our predictions took in 2025, we’ve lifted ourselves up, dusted ourselves off and are once again ready to try to predict the political year to come.

Yes, it’s time for our annual Over/Under Contest, the fifth year in a row that we go head-to-head to see who has the better crystal ball for 2026. What score will Pierre Poilievre get in his leadership review? When will Mark Carney’s polling numbers begin to drop — if at all? Will there be any more floor-crossers? And, of course, will there be an election in the year to come?

We’re splitting up the 2026 Over/Under Contest into two parts. Today, we’re reviewing how we did in 2025 (badly) before we set our sights on the year ahead of us in federal politics. Next week, we’ll place our lines and make our predictions for the provincial political scene.

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Poilievre suffers another blow as roller-coaster year comes to an end

Tue, 16 Dec 2025 20:00:00 GMT

One year ago today, Chrystia Freeland resigned from Justin Trudeau’s cabinet and kicked off a series of events that led to the Liberals winning re-election under new leader Mark Carney in April’s federal election. Also one year ago today, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives were enjoying a 20+ point lead in the polls. Now, the beleaguered Conservative leader has lost his second MP to the Liberals in little more than a month.

It’s been quite a roller-coaster year.

On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we discuss the defection of Markham–Unionville MP Michael Ma to the Liberals and what it means for Poilievre’s leadership of the Conservative Party. We also play a game of Election Draft, drafting what we think are the most likely unscheduled elections to take place in 2026.

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Could the shake-up in B.C. be felt in Ottawa?

Tue, 09 Dec 2025 20:00:00 GMT

After months of caucus departures, expulsions and internal party turmoil, John Rustad finally resigned as leader of the B.C. Conservatives last week. Could that shake-up in the Conservative Party have reverberations that’ll go far beyond the provincial political scene in Victoria?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss what just happened in British Columbia and whether we might see any federal politicians run for the B.C. Conservative leadership — potentially opening up some fascinating byelections. We also chat about the latest federal polls say about Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre, as well as new numbers out of every province, including in Quebec where there has been a big swing in public opinion and in Prince Edward Island where last night’s byelection almost resulted in a flip.

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Mark Carney's hinge moment

Tue, 02 Dec 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Polls suggest that a majority of Canadians (including British Columbians), support building a new pipeline from Alberta to the north coast of B.C. But after the resignation of Steven Guilbeault, a key minister for the Liberals in Quebec, and indications that the party’s electoral base in B.C. and elsewhere has mixed views about a new pipeline, could Mark Carney’s voter coalition be cracking — or could it grow instead?

This week on The Numbers, we dissect some new numbers on how Canadians view the possibility of a new pipeline and what they could mean for the fortunes of the Liberals. We also have some new polls concerning the federal scene and Quebec provincial politics to chat about.

This Friday, don’t miss our 2026 Leader Resignation Draft episode. Join the Patreon to listen to it if you aren’t already a member!

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Will Carney have to choose between Alberta and BC?

Tue, 25 Nov 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Prime Minister Mark Carney is reportedly set to announce a new agreement with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith that could pave the way for a new pipeline to the Pacific coast. The only problem? British Columbia might not be on board. Beyond the implications for the economy and the environment, could choosing between Alberta and B.C. have electoral repercussions for the Liberals?

This week on The Numbers, we break down views on a new pipeline and what impact it could have on Liberal fortunes in the two westernmost provinces. We also discuss the state of the NDP leadership race and what two new polls tell us about it, before chatting about the latest upheaval in Quebec provincial politics. Then, Philippe is back with The Quiz.

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No election for now, but for how long?

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 20:00:00 GMT

It wasn’t entirely clear how the budget was going to get passed, but it did indeed get passed on Monday night thanks to the abstentions of a few Conservative and NDP MPs. So, that means Canadians won’t be called to the polls over the holidays. But the clock on this minority parliament continues to count down. How long can it really last?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss what happened with the budget vote on Monday and what it tells us about the timing of the next federal election. We also chat about some new polling numbers, including both at the federal level and provincially out of New Brunswick and Quebec, as well as about an upcoming byelection in Prince Edward Island.

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Is Pierre Poilievre's leadership on borrowed time?

Tue, 11 Nov 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Questions continue to surround the future of Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre following the turmoil of budget week. Not only did the Conservatives lose Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont to the Liberals, they also lost Edmonton MP Matt Jeneroux, who announced his upcoming resignation. It’s been widely reported that Jeneroux was contemplating a floor-crossing of his own, but instead he has opted to resign his seat in the coming months.

While it’s possible the caucus departures could halt with d’Entremont and Jeneroux, rumours are swirling that upwards of a dozen Conservative MPs are unhappy with Poilievre’s leadership and how events have unfolded over the last few weeks. Can Poilievre weather this storm?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest developments and what the poll numbers say about the state of the Conservative Party and its leader. We also take a look at how Canadians are reacting to last week’s budget. Was it ho-hum, or a turning point? Plus, Québec Solidaire chooses a new co-leader that will have it doubling-down on independence and we have some new polling numbers out of Ontario.

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Budget, floor-crossing shake up Ottawa

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Mark Carney’s Liberal government tabled what it called its ‘generational’ budget on Tuesday, promising a mix of spending and cuts and booking a big budget deficit. So far, the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois look set to vote it down. The New Democrats are on the fence.

But the drama of budget day was punctuated by the defection of Nova Scotia MP Chris d’Entremont from the Conservatives to the Liberals. He might not be the only one to cross the floor as rumours fly. What does it mean for the fate of the government, Pierre Poilievre’s leadership and the potential for a snap election?

We had good reason to delay this week’s episode of The Numbers until after the budget so we could break down all the latest drama — because there’s quite a bit of it! We also discuss the state of the NDP leadership race and some new provincial polling out of Ontario, British Columbia and Alberta, as well as the results of the mayoral elections in Quebec and the territorial vote in Yukon.

CORRECTION: In Philippe’s Number of the Week, he said 85% when he meant 75%.

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Who should and shouldn't want an election?

Tue, 28 Oct 2025 19:00:00 GMT

There’s one week to go before Prime Minister Mark Carney’s government tables the budget. We still don’t know if it will pass a vote in the House of Commons. Failing to do so would mean another election. Should Pierre Poilievre welcome a second campaign in 2025, or should he and his Conservatives prefer to put that contest off to another day? And what about the Bloc Québécois and the New Democrats?

This week on The Numbers, we rate how much each party should want to head back to the polls this fall. We also take a look at a new poll that suggests the B.C. Conservatives are doing far better among voters than is their leader, John Rustad, plus we chat about the end of the fixed election date law in Ontario. Finally, Philippe has a Quiz to mark the 30th anniversary of the 1995 Quebec referendum.

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Is Pierre Poilievre's leadership in trouble?

Tue, 21 Oct 2025 19:00:00 GMT

Nobody within Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative caucus has publicly broken ranks with the leader, but calls for a change at the top of the party were given voice last week by Dimitri Soudas, a top aide to former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper. Is it a sign that Poilievre’s leadership of the party is more fragile than was previously thought, or are Soudas’s criticisms those of a former Conservative who no longer represents today’s version of the party? And what do the numbers say about the strength of Poilievre’s leadership?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss where things stand for Poilievre and the Conservatives. We also take a look at some more polling numbers on the Canada-U.S. relationship (and the Carney-Trump relationship). Plus, we have provincial polls out of Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia, as well as some mayoral results in Calgary and Edmonton. How did the polls do in these two big cities?

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Carney's delicate balancing act with Trump

Tue, 14 Oct 2025 19:00:00 GMT

The polls continue to show a narrow, but diminishing, advantage for Mark Carney’s Liberals. But the polls also show that Canadians hold some complicated, and at terms contradictory, views when it comes to the United States and the prime minister’s relationship with Donald Trump. It’s a delicate balancing act for Carney — one that could easily go badly for the Liberals if they risked (or were forced into) an election in the fall.

The week on The Numbers, we talk about the federal polling landscape and what it shows about Canadians’ views on our relations with the United States. We also take one last look at the Newfoundland and Labrador provincial election, as well as what the polls are showing ahead of next week’s mayoral elections in Calgary and Edmonton. Then, we close with a Quiz.

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Could a polarized electorate be the new normal?

Tue, 07 Oct 2025 19:00:00 GMT

For most of the four years between 2019 and 2023, the Liberals and Conservatives were deadlocked in the polls with each party hovering a little over 30%, give or take a few points. Then the bottom fell out for Justin Trudeau’s Liberals. But are we entering into another phase of a deadlocked, polarized electorate — this time with Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives both stuck around 40%?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss what could be the new normal. Plus, the NDP gets an interesting new entrant into its leadership race and the government announces a change to the budgeting schedule that could have some repercussions for the electoral calendar. In New Brunswick, the PCs hold one of their seats in a provincial byelection, while in Newfoundland and Labrador we’re only one week out election day. Where do things stand there? We also discuss some new polling numbers from Quebec and British Columbia, where David Eby seems to be benefiting from a divided (and infighting) opposition.

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Are Carney and Poilievre a boost or a drag on their parties?

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 19:00:00 GMT

Mark Carney seems to be more popular than his Liberals, while Pierre Poilievre seems to be less popular than his Conservatives. Are these numbers sustainable for either party leader — and what would it mean if these numbers held going into an election campaign? Plus, what to make of the NDP’s better polls as the party’s leadership campaign takes off?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest in federal polling trends. We also chat about the ongoing (but still unpolled) campaign in Newfoundland and Labrador, some surprising polling numbers out of Alberta and some less surprising numbers out of municipal races in Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal and Quebec City (a well as in Ontario). Then, Philippe is back with a new edition of The Quiz.

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What's the leadership review magic number?

Tue, 23 Sep 2025 19:00:00 GMT

It’s been a tough time for party leaders. After Ontario Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie resigned following her 57% leadership review score, Marit Stiles of the Ontario NDP managed only a little better with 68%. Over in British Columbia, John Rustad of the Conservatives scored 70%. While Crombie couldn’t hold on, Stiles and Rustad plan to stick around. But what number is good enough to stay on as leader — and what number should Pierre Poilievre aim for in his upcoming leadership review to keep his job safe?

This week on The Numbers, we chat about these leadership review results and what they mean. We also discuss new federal polling numbers and the opening moves of the NDP leadership race for contenders Avi Lewis and Heather McPherson. Plus, we break down some new provincial survey results out of Quebec, Manitoba and Nova Scotia. Then, Philippe boosts the difficulty level in this week’s edition of The Quiz.

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Who will prop up Carney's Liberals?

Tue, 16 Sep 2025 19:00:00 GMT

The MPs are back in Ottawa and already the big question on Parliament Hill is whether or not the government will survive the budget vote later this fall. Just a few seats short of a majority, Mark Carney’s Liberals still require the support (or abstention) of at least one other party in the House of Commons. Do any of those parties have an incentive to go back to the polls sooner rather than later?

This week on The Numbers, we break down the current state of the polls and what they say about the stability of this Parliament. We also discuss the newly-launched Newfoundland and Labrador election campaign, Bonnie Crombie’s resignation as leader of the Ontario Liberals and some provincial polling numbers from coast to coast.

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Are we buying or selling on Carney and Poilievre?

Tue, 09 Sep 2025 19:00:00 GMT

Parliamentarians return to Ottawa next week for what will be the first showdown between Prime Minister Mark Carney and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre in the House of Commons. It’ll be the official kick-off for the fall political season. Who will come out on top?

This week on The Numbers, after delving into the latest poll numbers we play a little game of “buy or sell” — buying the parties and leaders we think will end the season higher in the polls than where they are today, and selling those we think could end up in a worse spot.

Plus, we also chat about an upcoming provincial byelection in New Brunswick and break down the latest goings-on in Quebec, where Premier François Legault’s government is up against the ropes as a new poll shows the CAQ at rock bottom.

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A tale of two NDPs

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 19:00:00 GMT

The first two serious contenders for the federal NDP leadership have emerged in Heather McPherson and Avi Lewis, according to recent reporting. But the challenge they have ahead of them to rehabilitate the ailing New Democratic Party is enormous. Could the path laid out by Manitoba’s Wab Kinew be the answer?

This week on The Numbers, we discuss where the NDP goes from here as its leadership race officially begins. We also chat about whether we’re seeing any corroboration of last week’s polling numbers that showed some Liberal slippage, plus the potential for a couple of federal byelections in the next few months. Then, we break down the results of the Spruce Woods byelection in Manitoba, where the incumbent PCs were nearly upset in a safe riding. Plus, new poll numbers in Ontario disagree on where Doug Ford stands — is he in a dominant position, or just a really good one? Finally, Philippe ups the ante with another Quiz.

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Are Carney's Liberals losing steam?

Tue, 26 Aug 2025 19:00:00 GMT

Is Mark Carney’s honeymoon in danger of coming to an end? A new poll from Abacus Data suggests the Liberals might have lost some steam for the first time since the April election. What to make of these new numbers that put the Conservatives marginally ahead?

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at this new poll — and a few others that muddy the waters, including some not-so-strong numbers for Pierre Poilievre nationwide. We also discuss the upcoming (second) resignation of Green leader Elizabeth May and a new poll that puts the Parti Québécois in the driver’s seat ahead of the 2026 Quebec election. We close with a prime ministerial Quiz from Philippe.

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Pierre Poilievre passes his byelection test

Tue, 19 Aug 2025 19:00:00 GMT

Pierre Poilievre easily won the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection on Monday, thereby securing his return to the House of Commons. His closest challenger, Independent candidate Bonnie Critchley, finished 70 points behind as voters in the riding came out in droves to support the Conservative leader.

This week on The Numbers, we dive deep into the results of the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection. We also discuss some recent poll numbers that continue to look good for Mark Carney and the Liberals but suggest some vulnerabilities on key issues (such as the now-ended Air Canada strike and Donald Trump’s tariffs). Plus, we take a look at what happened in two PEI byelections last week and then Philippe closes with a byelection-themed Quiz.

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The Battle for Battle River–Crowfoot

Tue, 12 Aug 2025 19:00:00 GMT

With less than a week to go before the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection, how do we assess Pierre Poilievre’s chances to not only win but to put up a score that is just as big as what his Conservative predecessors did in the riding? Plus, what to make of the news that Jenni Byrne, who ran the Conservative campaign in this year’s election, will not be running the party’s next campaign?

This week on The Numbers, we take our last look at the Battle for Battle River–Crowfoot. We also discuss the results of the Quebec provincial byelection in Arthabaska, where the Parti Québécois secured a surprisingly comfortable victory over Éric Duhaime and the Quebec Conservatives. What does it mean for politics in the province ahead of next year’s election?

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Poilievre vs. 200+ candidates

Tue, 29 Jul 2025 19:00:00 GMT

For the second time in as many elections, Pierre Poilievre will have to contend with an enormous number of opponents. After the Longest Ballot Committee organized to expand the list of names to 91 candidates in Carleton, they’ve now boosted their efforts to push the roster of candidates to over 200 ahead of the Battle River–Crowfoot byelection.

Will it be the final straw before changes are made to the election laws? And what impact could it have on the race?

This week on The Numbers, we delve into the absurd byelection in Alberta. We also discuss some of the latest federal polling, as well as a trio of provincial byelections added to the calendar in Prince Edward Island and Manitoba and a face-off between Bonnie Crombie and Nate Erskine-Smith that is brewing within the Ontario Liberal Party. Then, Philippe takes us back to a time when “the land was strong” in this week’s edition of The Quiz.

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Carney, Trump and TACOs

Tue, 15 Jul 2025 19:00:00 GMT

As Donald Trump rachets up the pressure on Mark Carney, a majority of Canadians are still approving of the job the prime minister is doing. And one of the things that might be helping him the most is Canadians’ own lack of trust that the U.S. president is acting in good faith.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss some of the latest polling on how Canadians are viewing Carney’s government and their negotiations with the United States over tariffs. We also discuss the rules that have been laid out by the New Democrats for their leadership race. Is the entry fee too high? Is the race too long?

Plus, Philippe is tested with an impromptu Quiz as we look back on where things stood in summers past.

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Who can save the NDP?

Tue, 08 Jul 2025 19:00:00 GMT

After the New Democrats suffered a stinging rebuke in the last federal election, there are many questions surrounding where the party goes from here — and who could lead it.

On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we discuss the troubled state of the NDP and a new poll that suggests few Canadians know much about any of the potential leadership contenders. We also chat about what the polls say about Pierre Poilievre’s current standing within the Conservative Party, as well as an upcoming provincial byelection in Quebec. Plus, Philippe has a quiz on past NDP leadership contests.

If you missed it last week, we played a round of Over/Unders on the federal byelection in Battle River–Crowfoot. You can listen to this members-only episode by joining our Patreon here.

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Trouble or relief for Danielle Smith?

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 19:00:00 GMT

The Alberta New Democrats held their two seats in Edmonton and the United Conservatives won their seat in the rural south of the province. Naheed Nenshi now has a seat in the legislature and Danielle Smith has kept the separatists at bay. But there are some conflicting signals in the results. Are there reasons for Smith to be concerned over these numbers?

And what could they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s own quest for a seat in rural Alberta?

We break down the results of the Alberta byelections in this week’s episode of The Numbers. We also discuss the deep hole Quebec’s François Legault finds himself in and Philippe has another quiz (and a tough one) on the results of the 2025 federal election.

(We are planning to take a break for Canada Day, but our next episode for members of our Patreon should be out at the end of next week.)

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Should the Conservatives be worried?

Tue, 17 Jun 2025 19:00:00 GMT

The post-election polling hasn’t been kind to Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives. Is it just a blip or something the Conservatives should start worrying about?

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at what the federal polls say about Poilievre’s future. We also get a report from Philippe’s trip to Quebec City for the Quebec Liberal leadership that was won by Pablo Rodriguez and we look at provincial polling numbers from coast-to-coast with new premier approval ratings data and voting intentions results from across the country.

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Carney's honeymoon continues

Tue, 10 Jun 2025 19:00:00 GMT

Mark Carney has been prime minister for three months and his honeymoon appears to be holding as new polls show his own personal numbers continue to sparkle — even if the Liberals aren’t much further ahead in voting intentions than they were in April’s election. How long can these good vibes last?

We break down the latest federal polls on this week’s episode of The Numbers. Plus, we have some new data out of Alberta and Ontario and a leadership contest (finally) coming to a close in Quebec. Will presumed front runner Pablo Rodriguez be the next Quebec Liberal leader, or could an upset be in the making at this weekend’s convention in Quebec City?

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Doug Ford, Canada's premier?

Tue, 03 Jun 2025 19:00:00 GMT

A new poll suggests that not only is Ontario’s Doug Ford the most well-known provincial premier in the country, he is also the most popular in the country as a whole. Does that make Doug Ford Canada’s premiere premier?

This week on The Numbers, we dig into some polling by Pollara on how Canadians view their premier and the premiers of other provinces. We also delve into some numbers from Janet Brown Opinion Research on Albertans’ voting intentions, impressions of Danielle Smith and Naheed Nenshi and where the province stands on independence, as well as a trio of key provincial byelections being held on June 23.

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Does Canada want to chuck Charles or keep the King?

Tue, 27 May 2025 19:00:00 GMT

King Charles III kicked off a new parliamentary session on Tuesday by reading the government’s speech from the throne, the first time the monarch has done so since 1977. Does this herald a newfound enthusiasm for the Crown in Canada, or would Canadians prefer to chuck Charles and become a republic?

On this episode of The Numbers, we break down a series of polls that gauge Canadians’ opinions of the monarchy. We also delve into more data on Alberta sovereignty, some new federal numbers and discuss just what the NDP thought it was doing in the final days of the campaign as it tried to save Jagmeet Singh’s seat.

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Carney's cabinet, Poilievre's byelection

Mon, 19 May 2025 19:00:00 GMT

Prime Minister Mark Carney named his new cabinet last week. Do his choices suggest some electoral considerations came into play on who did and didn’t made the cut — and does a cabinet minister make a difference at the ballot box? Plus, Pierre Poilievre’s byelection in Battle River–Crowfoot looms, as does the prickly subject of Alberta separation.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss some of these new developments in federal politics. We also delve into new polling numbers in Ontario and Alberta, as well as in Quebec where the Parti Québécois is holding a wide lead. Could Pablo Rodriguez, if he wins the Quebec Liberal leadership, shake things up? And how could a referendum on Alberta independence impact that debate in Quebec?

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Wexit, Alberta-ta, Saskatchewants-out?

Mon, 12 May 2025 19:00:00 GMT

With referendums on separation a real possibility in the not-so-distant future, is there a chance that Alberta and/or Saskatchewan could vote to leave the country? We take a look at some of the latest polling numbers on the subject on this episode of The Numbers.

Plus, both the Conservatives and New Democrats have named some interim leaders (Andrew Scheer as head of the opposition until Pierre Poilievre gets into the House, and Don Davies as interim NDP leader until his replacement is named). What can we read into these choices? And does it matter that the judicial recount in Terrebonne has pushed the Liberals one seat closer to an outright majority?

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How long will this Parliament last?

Mon, 05 May 2025 17:46:13 GMT

Mark Carney’s Liberals secured a big minority government in last week’s election, but not the majority they were hoping for. Is 169 seats, three short of the majority threshold, as good as a majority in the current context?

On this episode of The Numbers, we debate how long it will be before we’re heading to the polls once again. We also discuss some post-election polling that hints at how different demographics voted and we chat about Pierre Poilievre’s future in Battle River–Crowfoot and beyond. Plus, The Quiz is back!

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Post-mortem on an unprecedented election

Wed, 30 Apr 2025 18:46:26 GMT

It was a remarkable end to an unprecedented few months in Canadian politics. Mark Carney’s Liberals came up just short of a majority with 169 seats, while the Conservatives won 144 seats but did not see their leader, Pierre Poilievre, win his. The New Democrats put up their worst performance in all of their history and saw leader Jagmeet Singh go down to defeat as well. But with seven seats, the NDP still holds the balance of power — as does Yves-François Blanchet and the Bloc Québécois.

So, there are lots of numbers to go into on this episode of The Numbers. How did the polls perform? How did our projections do? And what results surprised us the most?

Thanks for all of your support during this campaign! We’re going to go back to a weekly schedule of episodes, with bonus episodes for members of our Patreon. Become a member to continue supporting this podcast and to get access to those episodes as well as to our lively Discord server. Join here!

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Who's going to win the election?

Thu, 24 Apr 2025 18:27:13 GMT

Mark Carney’s Liberals still hold a lead over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives in our projections with only days to go before this campaign is all over. Will anything change between now and Monday?

On this episode of The Numbers, we go over our projections and discuss whether or not the polls are really tightening. We then take a look at where each party stands and assess what would be a good or bad night for each of them. Can Jagmeet Singh’s NDP retain official party status? Will Yves-François Blanchet and the Bloc Québécois hold the balance of power? Can the Greens avoid disaster?

And, of course, who will win the election?

Thanks for all of your support during this campaign! We’ll have one more final episode on Saturday for members of our Patreon. You can listen to that episode and join our Discord by becoming a member of our Patreon.

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How big of a polling cushion do the Liberals have?

Mon, 21 Apr 2025 18:06:14 GMT

We’re in the final week of this federal election campaign and the polls are still showing that Mark Carney’s Liberals remain the heavy favourites against Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But if the Liberals are in majority territory today, just how much of a cushion do they really have?

This week on The Numbers, we delve into the national polling numbers and our (somewhat differing) projections. We also take a look at some local polling in the Greater Toronto Area and on Vancouver Island.

Throughout this campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

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You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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Will the French debate change a tightening race?

Thu, 17 Apr 2025 18:32:18 GMT

The polls suggest the race could be getting closer between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives. But the Liberals are still way ahead in Quebec. Did last night’s French-language leaders’ debate change that?

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened during the debate and whether it’ll have any impact on the polls. We also chat about what appears to be a tightening race and where our projections disagree.

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Keep calm and trust the averages

Mon, 14 Apr 2025 19:30:52 GMT

After a period of broad consensus, there’s been a few divergences in the polls. Are we seeing real movement between Mark Carney’s Liberals and Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, or just some normal fluctuations between random surveys? We try to make sense of some of the numbers.

Plus, we discuss our projections (is Saskatchewan really in play?) and chat about how Carney and Poilievre did on the much-watched Radio-Canada program, Tout le monde en parle.

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Believe the polls

Thu, 10 Apr 2025 17:59:53 GMT

At Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative rally in Brampton on Wednesday, some supporters wore sweaters and held banners asking a simple question: “do you believe the polls?”

Yes. Yes, we do.

On this episode of The Numbers, we break down what the polls are showing and explain why every indicator suggests not only that Mark Carney’s Liberals are leading, but that they are in a very good position to win a majority government.

This election isn’t over, and in that sense having a healthy doubt about the polls is fine. And polls are never 100% accurate. But if anyone is thinking these polls are completely bogus snapshots of where things are today — well, we have some thoughts about that.

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Mind the polling gap

Mon, 07 Apr 2025 17:54:30 GMT

Do we have a polling controversy on our hands? Maybe! Over the last few days, we’ve seen a few polls published that portray some starkly different public opinion environments. Are Mark Carney’s Liberals leading by double-digits, or are Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives keeping them to a close race? Or is it somewhere in between?

On this episode of The Numbers, we try to make some sense of the diverging poll numbers. We also take a deep dive into some B.C. regional polling numbers and look at a pair of ridings that could be worth watching on election night. Does the NDP actually have a chance to win a second seat in Quebec?

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Do the polls make sense?

Thu, 03 Apr 2025 18:23:02 GMT

While the consensus in the polls pretty clearly points to an advantage for Mark Carney’s Liberals over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, what should we make of those individual surveys that show the race to be far closer — perhaps even tied? And how should we interpret the polls that show the Liberals surging in regions they haven’t won in decades?

In this episode of The Numbers, we try to make some sense of the numbers. We also look at some polls from Léger that have surprising regional breakdowns of support within Ontario and British Columbia.

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Liberals enter uncharted territory

Mon, 31 Mar 2025 18:08:46 GMT

It’s clear enough that Mark Carney’s Liberals would be the favourites to win this election if it were held today. But as support for the party in parts of the country grows to levels not seen in decades, just where those Liberal seat gains will happen is tough to predict.

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss how the electoral map is shifting. We also chat about whether or not Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats can beat expectations and if there are any signs that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives can turn things around.

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Did you miss our special episode on Saturday? Patreon members can listen to it here.

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As NDP collapses, Carney hits new highs

Thu, 27 Mar 2025 17:50:25 GMT

Early campaign polls show that the New Democrats under Jagmeet Singh are in freefall, propelling Mark Carney’s Liberals to new highs in support. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives are holding steady, but that just means they are losing ground as the Liberals keep moving ahead.

On this episode of The Numbers, Philippe J. Fournier and I discuss what the latest polling numbers say about how this campaign is unfolding. Can the NDP save any of its seats? Have the Liberals run into trouble in Quebec? And will the Conservatives be able to turn things around?

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The Liberal advantage is real

Mon, 24 Mar 2025 18:01:21 GMT

The writ has dropped and the campaign buses are rolling. It also means the pollsters are polling — and, as hard as their numbers are to believe after what has been an extraordinary few months, you better believe them. The Liberal edge is real.

But can it be sustained for the next five weeks? On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss whether or not Mark Carney’s Liberals have hit their ceiling and just how solid their support really is. We also break down the difficult situation Jagmeet Singh and the New Democrats find themselves in.

Starting this week and going straight through to the end of the campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

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The Liberals are...the favourites?

Thu, 20 Mar 2025 19:00:00 GMT

A flurry of polls conducted just ahead of Sunday’s expected writ drop show the Liberals in the lead — and potentially in majority territory. Have the Liberals really gone from catastrophic to the favourites in a matter of weeks?

On this episode of The Numbers, we break down the polls showing Mark Carney’s Liberals to be ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and try to make sense of what is happening. We also discuss results from two provincial byelections held in Quebec and Manitoba this week.

Starting next week straight through to the end of the campaign, we’ll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

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Are you ready for an election?

Thu, 13 Mar 2025 19:00:00 GMT

Mark Carney won the Liberal leadership race in emphatic fashion on Sunday and an election call seems only days away.

This week on The Numbers, we dissect the results of the Liberal leadership contest and what the latest polls are saying about Carney’s chances against Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. Plus, we take a look at some new provincial numbers out of Quebec and British Columbia.

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.

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Has the Liberal surge peaked already?

Thu, 06 Mar 2025 20:00:00 GMT

A series of polls published last week put the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck. This week, the numbers are putting Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives back in front by a sizeable margin. Has the Liberal surge already ended?

This week on The Numbers, we dissect the latest federal polling numbers. We also do a round of over/unders on Sunday’s Liberal leadership race where Mark Carney is heavily favoured to win, plus we discuss some new polling out of Quebec. Then, Philippe has a Quiz on past Liberal leadership contests.

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About last night in Ontario...

Fri, 28 Feb 2025 14:12:57 GMT

Doug Ford gambled when he called an early election, but it paid off in spades last night as his Progressive Conservatives won their third consecutive majority government. It wasn’t necessarily the bigger mandate he wanted, but a win’s a win. And that was a win.

The surprise of the night, though, was the performance of Marit Stiles’s NDP. The party’s vote went down significantly, as the polls predicted. But the NDP still managed to squeeze a lot of seats out of a lot less of the vote, as incumbency ruled the day in what was an otherwise status quo election. We try to make some sense out of how the NDP managed to defy expectations. And what do we make of the performance of Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals — good enough to regain recognized party status, but not good enough to get their leader elected?

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The polls have gone crazy

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 19:00:00 GMT

It’s been a whirlwind few weeks in the polls as the Liberals have closed the gap on the Conservatives. At first, the Liberals were merely on track for a smaller defeat than before. But now the polls are pointing to the possibility that the prime minister after the next election might not be Pierre Poilievre. It could be Mark Carney.

This week on The Numbers, we delve into the wild federal polls that have been published over the last few days. We also discuss the Liberal leadership race, the resignations of two Atlantic premiers and give our final assessment of the Ontario election campaign. Doug Ford’s PCs are heading to a majority victory, but what is going to happen to Bonnie Crombie’s Liberals and Marit Stiles’s NDP?

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The NDP is in deep trouble

Thu, 20 Feb 2025 20:00:00 GMT

As the Liberals close the gap on Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, Jagmeet Singh’s New Democrats are in danger of being completely eclipsed. Polls even suggest that if Mark Carney becomes the new Liberal leader, the NDP could be pushed into single digits.

And in Ontario, Marit Stiles’s NDP could lose half of its seats (or more) as the fight for second place appears to be Bonnie Crombie’s and the Ontario Liberals’ to lose.

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at the latest federal and Ontario polling numbers, as well as break down some new fundraising data from the Liberal leadership race. We also chat about an upcoming Manitoba byelection and polls out of British Columbia and Yukon. Finally, Philippe has a Quiz!

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Is it a whole new race?

Thu, 13 Feb 2025 20:00:00 GMT

The Liberals have made significant gains in a number of recent polls, closing the gap with Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives, in some case, to single-digits. And when Mark Carney is substituted-in for Justin Trudeau, that gap disappears entirely. Have we entered an entirely new federal race?

On this week’s episode of The Numbers we also discuss some of the latest polling numbers out of the dynamic and exciting (sarcasm) Ontario election campaign, as well as a byelection call in Quebec and some new polls out of Alberta and British Columbia.

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https://youtu.be/sakffqWeHhY

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Something's happening in the polls

Thu, 06 Feb 2025 20:00:00 GMT

The trend is getting irrefutable — the Liberals have reversed their slide since Justin Trudeau’s resignation. But just how competitive is the race really getting, and how much of it is based on the idea of Mark Carney rather than the reality?

On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we discuss some of the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean. We also discuss the fourth quarter fundraising figures for 2024 and new developments in the Liberal leadership contest. Then, we break down where things stand in the ongoing Ontario election campaign and take a look at some new provincial numbers out of Quebec.

You can also watch this episode on YouTube. https://youtu.be/9vqTM_CtYZo

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Are the Liberals up a lot, a bit, or not at all?

Thu, 30 Jan 2025 20:00:00 GMT

One thing seems clear these days: the polls aren’t very clear these days.

While there appears to be some indication of a Liberal uptick since Justin Trudeau’s resignation, there are big disagreements about just how big that uptick is. Not only is there a discrepancy in the federal polls, there are diverging polls in Ontario’s election campaign, too. Could the two be related — and just what can we say with any certainty?

We also take a look at the state of the Liberal leadership race and a new poll out of Quebec that has good news for the Bloc Québécois and Parti Québécois but, conversely, bad news for the Quebec sovereignty movement.

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Will Ontario give Doug Ford a new mandate?

Thu, 23 Jan 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Citing the need for a new, stronger mandate to take on Donald Trump’s tariffs, Doug Ford looks poised to call an Ontario election more than a year ahead of schedule. It’s a campaign that would play out while Justin Trudeau is still prime minister and Pierre Poilievre isn’t. Is this a smart political gambit for Ford’s PCs, or could it blow up in the premier’s face?

This week on The Numbers, we dissect the latest numbers out of Ontario — as well as some diverging trendlines at the federal level. One poll shows the Liberals surging. Is it an outlier or something new? Plus, we take a look at the federal Liberal leadership race and discuss whether or not this contest is Mark Carney’s to lose.

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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Who's in, who's out, and who has a chance?

Thu, 16 Jan 2025 20:00:00 GMT

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at the winnowing field of Liberal leadership contestants. We also discuss some new polling numbers that suggest the Conservatives have grown their support since Justin Trudeau announced he was resigning as prime minister.

Plus, is Doug Ford preparing to send Ontarians to the polls?

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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Now that Trudeau's out, who'll replace him?

Thu, 09 Jan 2025 20:00:00 GMT

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the impact of Justin Trudeau’s resignation as prime minister and Liberal leader, as well as the early moves in the contest to replace him. What do the polls say about the chances his successor will have against Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives?

And who will that successor be? We hold an auction to choose our picks for the most likely winners of the Liberal leadership race.

https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod

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Predicting politics in 2025

Thu, 26 Dec 2024 12:00:27 GMT

It’s that time of year again!

Time for us to match wits as we try to predict the political year to come. How many seats will the Conservatives win in the next federal election? Will the Liberals’ vote share be above or below the historic low set in 2011? How many leaders will resign on election night?

And who made the best predictions for 2024?

In addition to taking out the crystal ball for the federal campaign, we also make some guesses about what to expect in provincial elections in Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador and in politics across the country!

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Stunned, floored and flabbergasted

Thu, 19 Dec 2024 19:00:49 GMT

It’s hard to find the right adjectives to describe what happened with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government this week following the resignation of former finance minister Chrystia Freeland. But we try our best to make sense of what just happened and what could happen next. We also talk about some of the first post-resignation polling numbers that have been published since it all went down.

Plus, we have federal byelection results to dissect in Cloverdale–Langley City and provincial results to discuss in Lethbridge-West, as well as new poll out of Manitoba.

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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Liberals end year at their lowest in the polls

Thu, 12 Dec 2024 20:00:10 GMT

This week on The Numbers, we break down the latest federal polling that continues to look rough for Justin Trudeau. Next week’s byelection in the B.C. riding of Cloverdale–Langley City also looks rough for the Liberals, as the Conservatives appear likely to flip the seat that has gone back and forth between the two parties since 2015.

We also take a look at the latest premier approval ratings, how things are shaping up for Doug Ford in Ontario and just who is the favourite in next week’s Alberta provincial byelection in Lethbridge-West.

As always, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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Polls go from bad to sad for the Liberals

Thu, 05 Dec 2024 20:00:21 GMT

Four new polls put the Liberals and New Democrats within zero to two points of each other — and behind the Conservatives by margins of 19 to 23 points. We delve into the numbers and what they mean for each of the parties. Has Justin Trudeau’s promised GST holiday helped or hurt his chances?

We also discuss provincial polls coming out of Ontario and Quebec, where two incumbent premiers (Doug Ford and François Legault) face two very different futures.

As always, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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A shock poll and a PC wave

Thu, 28 Nov 2024 20:00:56 GMT

A new poll, employing a new methodology, has the Conservatives at their highest and the Liberals at their lowest levels of support in years — maybe even a decade. What to make of it?

On this week’s episode of The Numbers, we also break down Tim Houston’s PC landslide in the Nova Scotia election and take a look at some recent polls out of Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island.

As always, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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Liberals, NDP tied in new poll — again

Thu, 21 Nov 2024 20:00:46 GMT

A new poll by Abacus Data puts the Liberals and NDP neck-and-neck in national voting intentions, well behind the Conservatives. But this isn’t the first time it’s happened. Is it a blip or another worrying sign for Justin Trudeau?

On this episode of The Numbers, we take a look at the federal polling landscape. We then discuss some new numbers out of Quebec before taking a deep-dive into the Nova Scotia provincial election. Could anything put a big win by Tim Houston’s PCs in doubt, and who has the inside track on forming the official opposition?

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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Yet another tough byelection test for Trudeau

Thu, 14 Nov 2024 20:00:55 GMT

The Liberals face a tough test — maybe their toughest test yet — in an upcoming byelection in the B.C. Lower Mainland. Will Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose their third contest in a row?

We also take a look at the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives and Jagmeet Singh’s NDP. Then, we discuss new provincial polling numbers ahead of Nova Scotia’s election and Ontario’s apparently upcoming election. Finally, we chat about new polling from Quebec that continues to show trouble for Premier François Legault.

As always, you can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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Did the U.S. polls miss the mark?

Thu, 07 Nov 2024 20:00:14 GMT

Pollsters under-estimated Donald Trump’s support in his first two presidential campaigns. Did they do it a third time this year? We take a look at how the polls performed south of the border — and what the results could mean for politics on this side of it.

We also dissect some of the latest federal polling and fundraising numbers, plus we take a look at where things stand in the early days of the Nova Scotia provincial election campaign. Then, we close with a U.S.-themed Quiz!

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Close race and a polling miss in Saskatchewan

Wed, 30 Oct 2024 19:00:03 GMT

The Sask. Party held on in Saskatchewan in what turned out to be a close election, but the polls nevertheless missed the mark by a wide margin. We break down the results. We also take a look at the final count in British Columbia and the snap election call in Nova Scotia, where Tim Houston is hoping to avoid an incumbent slump. Then, we discuss the latest federal polls and whether the Liberals have any good alternatives for leader. Plus, the return of The Quiz!

If you aren't already a member of our Patreon and want to listen to this week's mailbag episode, you can join here. Members get a bonus mailbag episode every week and one special episode every month on a topic of members' choosing! Members also get to participate in our lively Discord.

This episode is also available on YouTube here.

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What just happened?

Thu, 24 Oct 2024 19:30:44 GMT

This week on The Numbers, we parse through the surprising results of the British Columbia and New Brunswick provincial elections. What’s next for the B.C. Conservatives, what do we make of the Liberals’ shellacking of the PCs out east and how did the polls do?

We also discuss the mini-revolt within the Liberal caucus and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau’s leadership. There’s also a new poll giving the Saskatchewan NDP the lead ahead of Monday’s vote, and another poll showing Doug Ford’s Ontario PCs on cruise control. Does it mean an early election?

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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Days of Decision in BC, NB — and for Justin Trudeau

Fri, 18 Oct 2024 10:00:24 GMT

Justin Trudeau faces a leadership challenge from within his own caucus — will it be the beginning of the end for him? Plus, there are just days to go in the election campaigns in British Columbia and New Brunswick. We break down the latest polls, plus some new numbers out of Saskatchewan, which is also hurtling toward its own decision day.

We then play a Provincial Election Draft and answer questions from the listener mailbag about the machinations in Ottawa.

Apologies for the poor audio from Éric during the first half of this episode.

As suggested in the podcast, if you’d like to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app, follow the instructions after clicking on this link.

Livestreams on SATURDAY and MONDAY can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheWrit/streams

A video of this episode is available on YouTube.

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Are the Liberals now in third place?

Fri, 04 Oct 2024 10:00:46 GMT

This week on The Numbers, we discuss a couple of new polls that put the Conservatives first, the NDP second and the Liberals in third. Is this the start of a new trend? We also chat about the state of the race in British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives have pushed ahead David Eby's NDP, and a new poll out of Quebec that shows continued trouble for Premier François Legault.

In the mailbag, we answer questions about the potential for prorogation and just how low the Liberals' floor could go. Finally, the tables are turned for a Mini Quiz for Philippe.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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After another defeat, where do the Liberals go from here?

Fri, 20 Sep 2024 10:00:15 GMT

This week on The Numbers, we parse through the results of Monday's byelections in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. Is it End Times for the Liberals? We also grade ourselves on our Byelection Draft and Over/Under choices. Plus, a confidence vote is on the docket next week. What do we make of the Bloc's early positioning — and what about Pablo Rodriguez's decision to make the jump to provincial politics?

We also take a look at some new polls out of British Columbia and Thursday’s writ drop in New Brunswick.

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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Jagmeet Singh rips up the deal — now what?

Fri, 06 Sep 2024 10:00:04 GMT

This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jagmeet Singh's decision to end the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. What does it mean for the upcoming byelections — and when will the general election be? We also discuss what new polls say about the impact of BCU's withdrawal from the upcoming B.C. election campaign.

In the mailbag, we answer a listener question on how a Trump election win may or may not change Canada's political landscape. Then, Philippe tests Éric against a machine in the Quiz.

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Summer is ending, polling season begins

Fri, 23 Aug 2024 10:00:17 GMT

It's poll-a-palooza on The Numbers this week, as we tackle five federal polls, two B.C. polls and new numbers out of Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Alberta. Also, there's a snap byelection call in Ontario that took us by surprise.

We compare caucus sizes in response to a listener question, and then Philippe has a Quiz on historical premiers.

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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Byelection Draft Day!

Fri, 09 Aug 2024 10:00:15 GMT

What are the most likely results of the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections? We rank the potential outcomes — with a draft! We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for all parties (especially the NDP), the prospect of Pablo Rodriguez as PLQ leader, and some new polling numbers out of Saskatchewan.

In our mailbag, we discuss what a Canadian VP sweepstakes would look like, plus Philippe tests Éric with a Prairie-themed Quiz.

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Trudeau's next byelection test

Fri, 26 Jul 2024 10:00:52 GMT

A byelection call looms in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in a contest that could prove a stiff test for the Liberals, as the NDP and Bloc target what has been a safe Liberal seat in Montreal. Plus, another call could come in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona, where the Conservatives will put the NDP on the defensive.

(Note: the Liberals announced their candidate for Elmwood–Transcona shortly after we recorded.)

We also chat about the announcements from Seamus O'Regan and Francis Drouin that they won't be running for re-election and answer listener questions from the mailbag — and provide a Margin of Error 101 refresher course. Then, Philippe tests Éric with a Quiz.

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Don't you know who I am?

Fri, 19 Jul 2024 10:00:33 GMT

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that gauges just how recognizable Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders and top figures in the Liberal Party really are to Canadians. We also chat about the latest federal numbers, the ubiquitous Mark Carney rumours, the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection and provincial polling out of British Columbia and Ontario.

In the mailbag, we answer a question about whether or not we can calculate the odds of big swings happening in future elections. Then, Philippe is put to the test with an impromptu Quiz.

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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Summer mailbag!

Fri, 12 Jul 2024 10:00:06 GMT

As we wait to return from our break, we're back this week with an extended mailbag episode to answer your questions, including:

Is it better to have an election in the summer or the winter?
Are the Liberals still the "natural governing party"?
Which past party leader who lost an election might have had a better shot at a different time?
Plus answers to questions on projection models, polling methods and more!

This episode was recorded on July 3. We'll be back with a regular episode next week!

Support the podcast on Patreon and get bonus episodes every two weeks, extended mailbag segments every week, ask us questions for the mailbag and join our Discord!

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A turning point in Toronto–St. Paul's

Fri, 28 Jun 2024 10:00:13 GMT

On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened in the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. We also chat about Naheed Nenshi's landslide win in the Alberta NDP leadership race and provincial premiers' approval ratings.

For the mailbag, we discuss whether Toronto–St. Paul’s was a one-off or not (and we have many more byelection-related questions in the members-only extended mailbag). Then, Philippe harkens back to the 2006 election for the Quiz.

You can also watch this episode on YouTube.

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Don't call it a comeback yet, Liberals

Fri, 14 Jun 2024 10:00:45 GMT

On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that puts the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals at the smallest its been in months. We also chat about some new polls out of Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec, and an upcoming byelection option for Naheed Nenshi in Alberta. We answer a question on the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and Philippe has more trivia for Éric in the Quiz.

You can also watch this episode on YouTube here.

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Snap elections, byelections and Trudeau's leadership

Fri, 31 May 2024 10:00:06 GMT

This week, we break down the latest federal polls and discuss whether or not they show a tightening of the race. We then delve into the Baie Verte-Green Bay byelection in Newfoundland and Labrador and the speculation of a snap election call in Ontario, and how those might be tied to Justin Trudeau's leadership. Plus, we have new numbers out of B.C. and a question from the mailbag on the federal byelections. Finally, Philippe has a Quiz on electoral landslides.

This episode is also available on YouTube: https://youtu.be/thM0AQAJweY

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Strong, stable, national Conservative 20-point lead

Fri, 17 May 2024 10:00:21 GMT

This week, we discuss another poll that shows a 20-point lead for the Conservatives, as well as some new numbers on how various religious communities are voting. We then delve into some provincial polling out of British Columbia and Quebec, and check-in on the Alberta NDP leadership race. In the mailbag, we chat about merger talks in B.C. and we close with a birthday-themed Quiz.

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Conservatives put up some big numbers

Fri, 03 May 2024 10:00:21 GMT

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss some BIG numbers that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives are putting up in both national polls and first-quarter fundraising. What does this mean for Justin Trudeau? Plus, we chat about an odd poll out of British Columbia ahead of that province's fall election.

In our mailbag, we answer a question on Poilievre and the PPC vote, and Philippe takes no pity on a hobbled Éric in this week's edition of The Quiz.

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Could an election make sense for the NDP?

Fri, 19 Apr 2024 10:00:51 GMT

This week, we assess the pros and the cons of an election for the New Democrats as Jagmeet Singh mulls whether or not to support the Liberal budget. We also chat about an upset PC victory in a Newfoundland and Labrador byelection as well as another poll showing the B.C. Conservatives on the move. We answer listener questions, including whether there is a Joe Manchin-style riding in the House of Commons, and Philippe is put to the test with a Quiz about past busy electoral calendars.

You can also watch the episode on YouTube.

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A new trend or another blip?

Fri, 05 Apr 2024 10:00:23 GMT

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the latest federal polls and whether or not the gap is narrowing between the Conservatives and the Liberals. We also delve into the question of whether Chinese interference in the 2021 election cost Erin O'Toole seats and his job. Plus, two byelections have been called in Ontario. What to make of the races in Milton and Lambton–Kent–Middlesex?

In our mailbag, we answer questions on how upcoming provincial elections could impact the next federal election and whether voters care about jurisdictional squabbles. Finally, Philippe has a new Quiz format for Éric.

Get access to our Discord, get our public episodes one day early and our exclusive episodes every second Thursday by joining our Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/thenumberspod

You can also watch this episode on YouTube: https://youtu.be/nK6rCL5lxNo

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With Liberal friends like these...

Fri, 22 Mar 2024 10:04:18 GMT

This week, Philippe and Éric chat about some of the latest federal numbers and how a trio of provincial Liberal leaders have come out against the carbon tax, putting Justin Trudeau in a bind. We also discuss what the political future of Liberal MP Anthony Housefather could mean for his riding on the island of Montreal. Plus, we have provincial polling out of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Quebec, we answer some mailbag questions and Philippe puts Éric to the test with The Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Every second episode of The Numbers is for Patreon members only.

Also available on YouTube: https://youtu.be/0STgWKKT8vo

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Proving the polls right

Fri, 08 Mar 2024 11:00:54 GMT

If the proof of the pudding is in the eating, is the proof of the polls in Durham? We break down the results of this week's federal byelection as well as some new national polls. We then answer listener questions about the NDP's performance, the possibility of having an interim PM forced onto the hustings, and whether the Conservatives have the biggest tent. Then, Philippe tests Éric's knowledge of a pivotal Ontario election.

This episode can also be viewed on YouTube: https://youtu.be/awUzGs9C_WM

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Races for second places

Fri, 23 Feb 2024 11:08:59 GMT

A new poll shows the NDP within spitting distance (yes, Philippe, that's a real thing) of the Liberals in the race for second place. What to make of it — and some recent controversies that are dogging the Liberals? We also discuss new poll numbers showing the Ontario Liberals well ahead of the NDP for runner-up status behind Doug Ford, as well as a survey on the race to become the leader of the opposition Alberta New Democrats. We answer questions on federal fundraising, the split on the right in B.C. and the linguistic split in New Brunswick. Then, Philippe quizzes Éric on some provincial premiers.

Join our Patreon to get early access to episodes and exclusive access to bonus episodes every two weeks: https://www.patreon.com/thenumberspod

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Will the NDP pull the plug?

Fri, 09 Feb 2024 11:00:22 GMT

We discuss the latest threats from the New Democrats to rip up their confidence-and-supply agreement with the Liberals and just how likely it is that this could lead to the fall of the government. We also chat about new polls on how Canadians view support for Ukraine and where the parties stand in Quebec as chatter increases on the possibility of a third referendum on sovereignty. Plus, we discuss an upset byelection win in P.E.I., answer listener questions and put Philippe to the test with another Quiz.

Join our Patreon for exclusive episodes and access to our Discord at thenumberspod.ca

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Dissent in the ranks

Fri, 26 Jan 2024 11:00:15 GMT

Are cracks starting to show in the Liberal caucus — and can more of them be prevented if the polling numbers don't improve? We also discuss views on health care, new numbers out of Alberta and dive into the listener mailbag. What happens if Donald Trump is unable to be the nominee? And what about the Conservatives' new star recruit in British Columbia?

Get early access to episodes and exclusive access to our bonus episodes by joining our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/thenumberspod

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Nevermind, Liberals are doomed again

Fri, 12 Jan 2024 11:04:18 GMT

After polls suggested the gap was narrowing a little between the Liberals and the Conservatives, a new survey puts the Conservatives back into landslide territory. We also discuss new polling on Canadians' views on the U.S. election, some upcoming byelections in Atlantic Canada and answer listener questions. Finally, Philippe gets his revenge on Éric for last week's Quiz.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site here (thenumberspod.ca). Every second episode of The Numbers is for Patreon members only.

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The 3rd Annual Over/Under Contest!

Fri, 29 Dec 2023 11:00:07 GMT

On this special episode of The Numbers, we port over a favourite from The Writ Podcast to mark the third edition of what is now our annual holiday tradition: the Over/Under Contest!

Yes, for the third time we throw caution to the wind and make our predictions for the political year to come. Plus, we see who has the most egg on his face from last year's guesses.

This being the last episode of the year, let us take this opportunity to thank you so much for your support of The Numbers in 2023 and wish you and yours all the best for the New Year!

To join our Patreon and support our work (as well as get early access to episodes and Patron-only episodes every second week) head to thenumberspod.ca

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Wait, maybe the Liberals aren't doomed after all?

Fri, 15 Dec 2023 11:00:21 GMT

The latest Abacus Data poll shows a nine-point swing between the Liberals and the Conservatives over the last few weeks, closing the gap to (a still wide) 10 points. Is it a mirage or a Christmas miracle for Justin Trudeau and crew? We also discuss some provincial polling out of the Prairies, an upcoming byelection in Toronto and answer listener questions.

To join the Discord page for The Numbers and to get early access to episodes every Thursday, you can become a member of our Patreon site. Every second episode of The Numbers is for Patreon members only.

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Have the Liberals hit their floor?

Fri, 01 Dec 2023 11:00:19 GMT

This week, we chat about the latest polls that show the Liberals flirting with the NDP for third place. We also chat Liberal leadership polling and a little Ontario politics, plus we discuss the naming of the new female co-spokesperson of Québec Solidaire and sit down for a brief chat with Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois, male co-spokesperson of the party. We've got listener questions and, of course, The Quiz.

To join our Patreon, get early access to public episodes on Thursdays and exclusive episodes every two weeks, head to thenumberspod.ca

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RIP Carbon Tax?

Fri, 17 Nov 2023 11:08:10 GMT

We discuss the latest polls that show the Liberals in deep trouble and how the carbon tax has become a vote loser for Justin Trudeau's government. We also chat about the OLP leadership race, new recruits for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and answer listener questions. Plus, Philippe comes up with his toughest quiz yet.

To join our Patreon and get access to our members-only episodes and early access to public episodes on Thursdays (as well as to join our hopping Discord!), please head to thenumberspod.ca

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Unexpected flailings

Fri, 03 Nov 2023 10:05:35 GMT

We discuss some troubling polling and fundraising numbers for the Liberals and wonder how they could possibly keep this up for another 23 months. Plus, there's a shocking new poll out of Quebec, listener questions and a quiz that puts Éric on the spot. Join our Patreon at https://www.patreon.com/thenumberspod to get early access to episodes every week on Thursday and exclusive access to our members-only episodes every two weeks!

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Preview: Sixteen Points

Thu, 26 Oct 2023 16:24:20 GMT

A preview of this week's episode, where we chat about the Conservatives' big lead in the polls, some new numbers regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict and a tightening gap on the Saskatchewan provincial scene. We answer some listener questions, including whether Trudeau could do worse than Ignatieff or Poilievre could do better than Mulroney, and Philippe is put to the test with a quiz! To get access to the full episode, visit thenumberspod.ca

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Should Trudeau stay or should he go?

Fri, 20 Oct 2023 10:00:43 GMT

This week, we chat about some new polling numbers on Justin Trudeau's leadership and we dissect the NDP's prospects coming out of the convention, where Jagmeet Singh scored 81% on his leadership review. We also discuss just how much Teflon is coating Doug Ford and his Ontario PCs, and answer listener questions — including whether any party could win a landslide the size of John Diefenbaker's or Brian Mulroney's.

Get early access and don't miss out on next week's episode: thenumberspod.ca

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Don't miss out on this week's episode!

Thu, 12 Oct 2023 17:14:19 GMT

As we mentioned last week, every second episode of The Numbers will now be only for members of our Patreon. This week, we're chatting about the latest federal polls as well as new numbers in B.C., Alberta and Quebec, and we discuss the NDP's upcoming convention in Hamilton. Plus, Philippe has another quiz! We'll have a regular episode of The Numbers in your feed next week, but if you don't want to miss this week's episode join our Patreon and listen today: https://www.patreon.com/thenumberspod

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What happens in Manitoba doesn't stay in Manitoba

Fri, 06 Oct 2023 10:00:58 GMT

We break down the results of the Manitoba provincial election and the Quebec byelection in Jean-Talon, as well as some new polling numbers out of Ontario and Newfoundland and Labrador. We also answer listener questions (can the Conservatives ever win in Montreal?) and present our numbers of the week.

Don't miss next week's episode! Become a member at https://www.patreon.com/thenumberspod

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Poilievre minority or landslide?

Fri, 29 Sep 2023 10:09:05 GMT

Philippe and Éric discuss some federal polling that would produce very different electoral outcomes. They then draft their ridings to watch in Manitoba's election, play a game of over/under ahead of the Jean-Talon byelection and answer listener questions. Join our Patreon for early access to episodes and, starting soon, Patron-only episodes: thenumberspod.ca

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Power Polliver

Fri, 22 Sep 2023 10:00:59 GMT

We discuss just how well Canadians know the names of the Conservative leader and the Liberal cabinet, as well as news about India, the creation of a new federal party, the latest Manitoba polls and a potential snap election in New Brunswick. Plus, we answer listener questions and Philippe has another quiz for Éric. Join our Patreon and get early access to all episodes at http://thenumberspod.ca

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Enthusiastic Conservatives, nervous Liberals

Fri, 15 Sep 2023 10:18:31 GMT

We chat about Philippe's experience at the Conservative convention and more polling numbers that should make the Liberals very worried. We also discuss a big development in B.C. politics, whether Doug Ford is made out of Teflon and if Heather Stefanson can win re-election as the least popular premier in Canada. Plus, we have answers to listener questions and our numbers of the week. Get early access to episodes and our Discord at thenumberspod.ca

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Conservatives hold a convention and a big polling lead

Fri, 08 Sep 2023 10:00:10 GMT

In this inaugural episode of The Numbers podcast, we chat about the latest federal polls and the Conservative convention, before delving into the provincial scenes in Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec. Plus, we answer questions from the mailbag and Philippe test's Éric's Ontario political knowledge.

To get early access to episodes on Thursdays and join our Discord, become a Patron here: https://www.patreon.com/thenumberspod

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The Numbers, a new political podcast

Wed, 16 Aug 2023 19:37:26 GMT

Éric Grenier, political analyst and author of The Writ newsletter, and Philippe J. Fournier, the mind behind 338Canada, provide their unique perspective and analysis on federal and provincial politics across Canada.

After collaborating together from time to time on The Writ Podcast, Éric and Philippe have decided to launch a new podcast to share their passion for political history and data-driven analysis with an audience of fellow election junkies.

In The Numbers podcast, we'll dive deep into the world of political polling to try to make some sense of the signal that is in all that noise, identify the emerging trends and put all those numbers into context. We'll also analyse political and electoral strategy as it unfolds, as well as look back at the history of election campaigns that have changed the course of Canadian history — for better or worse!

We'll also be answering questions from our audience, and hopefully have a little fun, too!

Subscribe to our Patreon at thenumberspod.ca

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.