The Investment Perspective, with Ninety One

#79 When private credit flips the script

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 08:32:42 GMT

For years, developed markets were seen as the safer home for private credit, while emerging markets carried the higher-risk label. But that gap may be narrowing, and in some cases even reversing. Alper Kilic explores why strains are surfacing in US private credit, how weaker underwriting standards have contributed to the shift, and why emerging market private credit may offer a more resilient opportunity set built on secured lending, stable underwriting standards and real-economy demand.

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#78 Cash Talk: FLAC decoded | What SA’s new bank debt means for fixed income investors

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 10:49:17 GMT

South Africa’s fixed income market is entering a new phase with the introduction of FLAC instruments, a class of bank debt designed to strengthen the financial system and reduce the risk of taxpayer-funded bailouts. Lisa MacLeod and Stephen Naidoo unpack how these instruments work, why they are being introduced now, and what their arrival means for credit risk, pricing and portfolio construction in the years ahead.

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#77 When the taps run dry: the real story behind South Africa’s water crisis

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 07:32:12 GMT

South Africa’s water challenges are becoming harder to ignore, as supply disruptions spread beyond rural areas into major urban centres. Yet the issue is less about scarcity than system failure. Tshiphiri Muedi explores how infrastructure inefficiencies are driving the crisis, and how emerging reforms could begin to unlock a more investable path forward.

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#76 Bond market shock: panic or opportunity?

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 11:03:17 GMT

South African bonds have suffered their second-worst monthly drawdown in two decades, rattled by global conflict and rising inflation fears. But beneath the volatility, the fundamentals may tell a different story. James Turp unpacks what’s driving the sell-off, what past episodes reveal about market recoveries, and whether this presents investors with an attractive entry point into fixed income.

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#75 Markets shaken, not broken: Middle East tensions

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 09:05:15 GMT

The sudden escalation in the Middle East has jolted global markets, reversing expectations for lower inflation and rate cuts almost overnight. Malcolm Charles explains why this is more than a passing shock, how portfolios are being repositioned for a more uncertain world, and why caution rather than conviction is guiding investment decisions right now.

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#74 When gold falls and oil calls the shots

Fri, 27 Mar 2026 09:44:28 GMT

In a market where gold no longer behaves like a safe haven and oil is rewriting the rules, investors are being forced to rethink old assumptions. George Chevely unpacks the dynamics across precious and industrial metals, and explains why energy, not gold, may now be the dominant force shaping returns.

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#73 Central banks on edge: when war rewrites the rate outlook

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 08:05:33 GMT

Just as central banks looked set on a path to easier policy, geopolitics has thrown a wrench into the plan. With conflict in the Middle East driving energy prices higher and clouding the inflation outlook, Jason Borbora-Sheen explains why rate cuts are being repriced, why different central banks will respond differently, and why, despite all the noise, markets have remained surprisingly resilient.

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#72 When geopolitics shuts the taps

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 07:45:51 GMT

Oil markets have been jolted by a sharp escalation in the Middle East, pushing prices higher and disrupting flows through the vital Straits of Hormuz. Paul Gooden explains how the effective closure of this key route is squeezing global supply, driving volatility across energy markets. With outcomes ranging from a temporary spike to a more sustained period of higher prices, inventories, demand destruction and geopolitics will ultimately determine where oil settles.

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#71 The Biccard playbook – patience, pain and payoff

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 13:10:04 GMT

After more than 25 years running the Ninety One Value Fund, John Biccard has learned that successful investing often means enduring periods of discomfort. Value investing requires buying what others dislike and waiting patiently for the cycle to turn. In this conversation, Biccard explains why geopolitical shocks and market noise rarely change the long-term investment case and why some of today’s most out-of-favour sectors could become tomorrow’s winners.

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#70 War risk and oil spikes: Shock, sell-off… or opportunity?

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 11:53:13 GMT

The military build-up signalled it was coming, and now markets must grapple with the fallout. As conflict in the Middle East escalates, energy prices jumped, bond yields backed up and investors are reassessing risk. John Stopford explores why spiking oil matters for inflation and monetary policy, how markets typically absorb geopolitical shocks, and why a defensive starting position may create opportunities as volatility unfolds.

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#69 Goldilocks or false dawn?

Fri, 27 Feb 2026 14:08:46 GMT

After a year in which tariffs failed to ignite inflation and both bonds and equities surprised on the upside, investors are reassessing the outlook. With global growth resilient, inflation cooling and the dollar gradually weakening, David Knee explains why the “Goldilocks” backdrop still supports risk assets. The real challenge for 2026 may not be that conditions are perfect but recognising that – for now – they’re good enough.

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#68 From election fears to fiscal discipline: What Budget 2026 means for your portfolio.

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 12:11:32 GMT

The National Treasury delivered expenditure discipline, no new bailouts, and a third consecutive primary surplus. Jaco van Tonder discusses the expanded tax-free savings, retirement deductibility, CGT exclusions, and offshore allowances that create planning opportunities advisers should not ignore. Malcolm Charles explores how reduced weekly bond issuance, a rally in long-dated yields, and improving debt dynamics are reshaping the fixed-income opportunity set.

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#67 SONA: Infrastructure at the heart of SA’s growth plan

Tue, 17 Feb 2026 14:00:12 GMT

This year’s State of the Nation Address struck a notably confident tone: less promise, more progress. But is this truly a turning point? Alastair Herbertson explores why infrastructure is at the heart of South Africa’s growth ambitions, where private capital fits in, and why long-term investors may find this moment compelling.

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#66 SA Infrastructure: the dawn of reform

Fri, 13 Feb 2026 11:44:47 GMT

Phase 1 of Operation Vulindlela proved reforms can unlock private capital — around R500bn worth. Now Phase 2 shifts from policy design to delivery, with infrastructure firmly in the spotlight. Investment specialist Phuleng Pitso unpacks where the next wave of opportunity may emerge and what “success” could look like for investors and communities alike.

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#65 Dollar down: Halfway there or just getting started?

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 11:43:36 GMT

The dollar’s weakness is no longer a contrarian call; it’s becoming the base case. But what’s driving its persistence, and what would finally confirm a full-blown dollar bear cycle? Sahil Mahtani revisits the forces behind the “sell America” trade, the limits of Fed leadership changes, and the signals investors are watching for the next leg lower.

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#64 Gold at $5 000: Bubble blow-off or just getting started?

Thu, 05 Feb 2026 09:20:05 GMT

After a breathtaking surge that carried gold well beyond $5 000 an ounce, followed by a brutal pullback, investors are questioning whether the rally has finally run its course. George Cheveley unpacks what drove the frenzy, why volatility is here to stay, and why gold equities may still offer compelling value despite the metal’s wild ride.

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#63 US rates on hold, questions in motion

Thu, 29 Jan 2026 14:15:27 GMT

One of Jerome Powell’s last acts as Fed chair was to do nothing. Or so it may seem. In the face of sluggish employment but lively growth, US rates were left unchanged. But will benign inflation continue and ultimately sway future decisions to ease? Philip Saunders analyses the situation.

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#62 Keep calm and carry on yielding

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 09:29:18 GMT

A stronger rand. Lower inflation. Rate cuts on the horizon. Malcolm Charles explains why South African bonds remain one of the most attractive income trades on the board, despite a blockbuster 2025. However, with the easy gains behind us, discipline and risk management will be essential.

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#61 Could the momentum run out?

Thu, 22 Jan 2026 08:24:07 GMT

In 2025, quality investing was overshadowed by AI exuberance, precious metals and momentum-driven market leadership. As volatility re-enters the picture, those same forces are being tested. Sumesh Chetty reflects on why the balance between growth, valuation and resilience is becoming harder to ignore. From gold’s rise to a reassessment of South African assets, he explores what may matter more as 2026 unfolds.

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#60 Beyond supply and demand – how politics is driving oil prices

Wed, 14 Jan 2026 07:57:05 GMT

The oil price is once again being shaped by forces far beyond the fundamentals of supply and demand. Geopolitics has re-entered the equation in a meaningful way, from instability in Venezuela to rising tensions in Iran. Layered onto this is Donald Trump’s political calculus. His domestic priorities are tightly interwoven with his international stance on energy and geopolitics. Paul Gooden unpacks the complex forces influencing black gold and sets out where volatility may create opportunity.

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#59 Is SA Inc poised for a breakout?

Mon, 08 Dec 2025 10:41:27 GMT

The JSE has delivered a standout year, led by resource names, but the real story, according to John Biccard, is only just starting. He explains why SA Inc is primed for a powerful re-rating, what the bond–equity divergence really tells us, and which sectors and stocks will dominate his portfolio as it enters 2026 with conviction.

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#58 The dichotomy of defence: Are today’s safest bets tomorrow’s cyclical risks?

Tue, 02 Dec 2025 09:29:38 GMT

The AI boom has turned the most cyclical parts of the market into perceived safe havens, while true defensives languish. Clyde Rossouw unpacks the tension between AI euphoria, a weakening consumer, and where genuine opportunities may actually lie.

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#57 MTBPS: Targets met, reforms on track

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 07:25:31 GMT

From the surprise early announcement of a lower inflation target to reduced bond issuance and cautious revenue projections, Sisamkele Kobus and Adam Furlan discuss why the market’s reaction was upbeat, and how improved fiscal and monetary alignment could support greater market stability ahead.

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#56 Active expertise, now on the JSE

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 07:53:54 GMT

Ninety One marks a milestone moment with the launch of its first two actively managed exchange-traded funds (AMETFs) on the JSE, bringing almost 35 years of active investment expertise into a listed, accessible format. Siobhan Simpson explains how Ninety One is evolving to meet changing investor needs and broaden access to its active investment skill while offering a glimpse of what’s to come.

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#55 Precious potential: why commodities still shine

Thu, 30 Oct 2025 13:24:58 GMT

From platinum deficits to gold’s resurgence and copper’s electrifying prospects, Muhammad Docrat unpacks the powerful forces reshaping commodities. He explains why tight supply, renewed central bank demand and the global energy transition are keeping precious and base metals in focus. even as oil tells a more complex story.

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#54 Private credit comes of age

Mon, 20 Oct 2025 17:56:17 GMT

Once a quiet corner of the alternatives market, private credit is now stepping into the mainstream. As investors seek yield, diversification, and real-world impact, the asset class offers a compelling blend of steady income, resilience through cycles, and tangible development benefits, particularly in emerging markets. Reabetswe Kungwane illustrates how private credit has moved from a niche alternative to a mainstream allocation in institutional portfolios.

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#53 Cash Talk: The resilient rand – what’s driving it and how long can it last?

Wed, 15 Oct 2025 13:02:55 GMT

The rand has been one of 2025’s standout performers: stronger against the dollar, steady against peers, and buoyed by solid fundamentals. A weaker greenback, firm commodity prices, and South Africa’s credible policy mix have all played a part. With global central banks shifting gears and local inflation easing, what comes next, and how will it shape the South African Reserve Bank’s path in the months ahead?

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#52 Climbing the wall of worry – on market momentum and hidden value

Wed, 15 Oct 2025 11:06:37 GMT

Stock markets at home and abroad have soared this year, but not all sectors are sharing in the gains. From the resource-heavy rally on the JSE to the dominance of tech in the US, Hannes van den Berg unpacks the narrow leadership behind record highs and where overlooked value may lie.

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#51 The Fed’s flip – why risk management could be a tailwind for equities

Mon, 13 Oct 2025 05:18:54 GMT

The tone of the US Federal Reserve has flipped from hovering on the hawkish side earlier this summer to delving firmly into dovish territory today. With jobs, inflation and politics all demanding attention, the policy permutations are many. Alex Holroyd-Jones unpacks the Fed’s shift into risk-management mode and what it means for markets and for equities in particular.

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#50 The big 5-0: the best of the past year’s Investment Perspective

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 06:08:10 GMT

Fifty episodes, countless insights. To mark this milestone, The Investment Perspective revisits some of the most compelling moments from the past year. From the dollar bear market to renewed interest in South African equities, from oil’s uncertain path to the enduring case for gold, this episode distills the sharpest thinking from Ninety One’s investment professionals. A fitting celebration of 50, with a clear eye on what’s next.

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#49 From safe haven to supply crunch: what’s driving gold and copper

Fri, 26 Sep 2025 09:32:05 GMT

Gold has surged past $3 700 an ounce and copper is climbing on tightening supply. From record central bank buying and ETF flows to mining disruptions and the spectre of a dollar bear market,

George Cheveley unpacks the forces reshaping precious and base metals markets.

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#48 Fed cuts as expected, but strains are showing

Thu, 18 Sep 2025 09:13:13 GMT

The Fed’s 0.25% cut landed as expected, but markets are left weighing a more complicated picture: cooling jobs, stubborn inflation, and a divided FOMC. Philip Saunders unpacks what the move really signals and where opportunity can be found amid the noise.

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#47 Cash Talk: Money market funds – now safer by design

Mon, 15 Sep 2025 11:46:29 GMT

Money market funds remain a cornerstone of the global financial system, prized for their liquidity and stability. Yet history has shown they are not immune to stress, with mismatches between investor redemptions and underlying assets occasionally exposing vulnerabilities. Regulators have responded with reforms designed to bolster resilience and transparency. Vivienne Taberer explains why these changes should be welcomed, how they reinforce money markets’ safe-haven role, and what today’s rate environment means for investors seeking both security and yield.

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#46 Why SA bonds are holding firm

Thu, 11 Sep 2025 07:58:59 GMT

Developed market bonds have had a turbulent year, buffeted by deficits, politics and policy uncertainty. Enter South African bonds. In contrast, they’ve been a bastion of relative calm, supported by orthodox fiscal and monetary policy. Ruen Naidu unpacks their performance and what the road ahead may hold.

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#45 The ‘safe’ portfolio just got risky

Fri, 05 Sep 2025 12:48:01 GMT

South Africa’s high real yields have allowed conservative investors to lean heavily on income strategies for returns. However, that tailwind is fading. As inflation expectations settle and the SARB prepares to cut rates further, the return gap between bonds and equities may widen. Sumesh Chetty believes it's time to rethink what ‘cautious’ really means.

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#44 Bonds – anything but boring

Fri, 29 Aug 2025 12:43:25 GMT

Once seen as safe and steady, bonds are now at the heart of market turbulence. From political pressure on the Fed to diverging central bank moves and volatile long-end yields, 2025 is rewriting the rules. Jason Borbora-Sheen makes the case for short-dated bonds, global diversification and a relentless focus on capital protection.

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#43 The price is (finally) right?

Fri, 29 Aug 2025 06:26:42 GMT

Markets are a game of probabilities, and John Biccard thinks investors are mispricing them. In this episode, he unpacks why South African banks may offer compelling value, why the case for gold still glitters, and what 25 years of value investing has taught him about conviction, misperception, and timing. Is value finally getting its moment in the spotlight?

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#42 Stagflation looms as next test for markets

Fri, 22 Aug 2025 08:04:27 GMT

This year has not been short on worries for market participants. Now, another concern is creeping onto the list: stagflation. Early signals of a slowing US economy, coupled with rising prices, have caught investors’ attention, though they are not yet fully reflected in market pricing. John Stopford unpacks the complex likelihood of stagflation taking hold, its potential impact and how he is positioned to navigate one of investors’ most persistent adversaries.

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#41 Infrastructure investment – aligning returns with impact

Mon, 18 Aug 2025 13:47:59 GMT

Infrastructure credit is emerging as a powerful way for institutional investors to combine resilient returns with real-world impact. Thanzi Ramukosi highlights a strong pipeline across energy, water, transport and digital connectivity, offering diversification, stability and support for South Africa’s development.

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#40 Bond market round-up – from bright spots to red flags

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 13:24:50 GMT

Malcolm Charles unpacks the contrasting outlooks for global bond markets, starting with a ‘sunnier’ South Africa buoyed by improving fundamentals and resilient fixed income returns, before heading offshore where clouds of policy uncertainty and tariff tensions loom large.

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#39 Decoding supply and demand dynamics in commodity surge

Wed, 06 Aug 2025 11:21:15 GMT

A global commodity index has hovered near multi-year highs for months, but beneath the surface, individual commodities tell very different stories. George Cheveley delves into the supply-and-demand dynamics behind key commodities, including platinum group metals, copper, oil, and gold. He discusses what’s powering the rally, and what may lie ahead.

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#38 Cash Talk: Cut and curveball.

Fri, 01 Aug 2025 08:52:59 GMT

The South African Reserve Bank delivered a widely expected 25 basis-point rate cut, but surprised the market with its ambition to target a 3% inflation rate sooner than anticipated. Vivienne Taberer analyses the decision, decodes the Governor’s tone and shares her take on what’s next for SA interest rates.

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#37 A narrow climb to an all-time high – can SA Inc. join the JSE rally?

Mon, 28 Jul 2025 07:31:43 GMT

The JSE All Share Index has surged past the 100 000 mark, doubling in just 5 years. Hannes van den Berg explores the significance of this milestone, while cautioning that the rally has been narrow, driven largely by the Resources sector and a handful of heavyweight stocks. He raises the key question: can SA Inc. step up to broaden the market rally?

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#36 A turning point for the dollar?

Wed, 09 Jul 2025 22:00:00 GMT

As the world’s reserve currency, the US dollar plays a pivotal role in global markets. But has it reached a critical inflection point? Sahil Mahtani, Director at Ninety One’s Investment Institute, examines four key forces that may have already ended the dollar’s long-term bull run – potentially marking the start of a multi-year bear market cycle. The implications for asset allocators and investors could be profound.

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#35 Cash Talk: Mid-year monetary pulse

Mon, 30 Jun 2025 14:55:32 GMT

After a turbulent start to 2025 driven by tariff tensions, markets have found firmer footing. Sisamkele Kobus unpacks South Africa’s economic trajectory, the ups and downs of the Government of National Unity (GNU), and the South African Reserve Bank’s stance on inflation, before offering her reflections on inflation targeting.

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#34 Oil, politics and uncertainty

Mon, 30 Jun 2025 14:22:28 GMT

Geopolitical tensions have once again exposed the oil market’s vulnerability to global events, fueling volatility and uncertainty for producers, consumers, and investors alike. Paul Gooden unpacks the forces driving recent market disruptions, including the fragile truce, the role of OPEC+ and US shale producers.

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#33 Fixed income – why the old rules no longer apply

Thu, 19 Jun 2025 12:28:30 GMT

Fixed income has long held ‘safe-haven’ status, but that reputation is cracking. In bond markets today, old assumptions are being upended. Peter Kent unpacks the blurring lines between developed and emerging market debt, the new global order where traditional labels no longer apply, and why bonds' defensive qualities are no longer a given. Meanwhile, headwinds for emerging markets are easing – and the case for diversification is more compelling than ever. A flash in the pan? Or a new trend that has long legs?

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#32 Cash Talk: Targeting 3% – an opportunity to catalyse economic growth

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 07:45:54 GMT

With CPI consistently below the target range, the SARB is proposing a lower, more ambitious 3% anchor. Vivienne Taberer examines what a 3% target would mean for the economy, markets, the rand, and monetary policy, concluding that the long-term gain would outweigh the short-term pain.

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#31 Budget 3.0, Trump and bonds – what lies ahead for fixed income investors

Wed, 28 May 2025 10:03:34 GMT

After a turbulent start to the year, 2025 is evolving into a year of opportunity. Malcolm Charles unpacks the key drivers of the bond market and dives into two significant events for South Africa: Budget 3.0 and President Ramaphosa’s recent meeting with Donald Trump. He explores what these developments could mean for the economy, markets, and sets out their positioning.

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#30 Third time’s the charm

Fri, 23 May 2025 10:05:27 GMT

Fresh from a meeting with National Treasury, Adam Furlan shares a cautiously optimistic view on Budget 3.0. With signs of fiscal discipline and borrowing restraint, he unpacks the key takeaways – and what they mean for bonds and the rand.

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#29 US approaches crunch point as debt soars

Wed, 21 May 2025 12:31:39 GMT

Moody’s, after some deliberation, joined its peers and knocked the US off its AAA perch. Markets seemingly shrugged it off, but it’s not that simple. John Stopford unpacks the implications, including why Trump’s "Big Beautiful Bill" could trigger a Truss-style trauma.

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#28 A new investment reality takes shape

Wed, 14 May 2025 09:34:33 GMT

Ninety One’s 2025 Capital Market Assumptions was recently published based on data until the end of March, before the Trump tariff shock that so unnerved market participants. But as Daniel Morgan explains, many asset classes have already come full circle. Looking ahead, however, he anticipates a decade of modest returns where outperformance is unlikely to come from broad exposure alone, requiring investors to be more selective.

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#27 Cash Talk: Why the SARB is holding back

Fri, 09 May 2025 07:37:39 GMT

Inflation is under control in South Africa and the price of money surely set to fall. Despite an uncertain international backdrop, the SARB is expected to cut interest rates twice this year. Vivienne Taberer examines the case for cuts, why prices are behaving in South Africa and why the MPC is hawkish.

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#26 Tariffs, OPEC and shale: Where oil and gas markets are headed in 2025

Wed, 30 Apr 2025 12:39:49 GMT

Paul Gooden breaks down the complex forces moving oil and gas prices in 2025 — from OPEC’s fragile balancing act to the fading punch of US shale. But the real story might be in natural gas, where AI demand, electrification, and LNG exports are shaping a compelling new growth curve. This is energy investing beyond the headlines — analytical, forward-looking, and grounded in a global perspective.

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#25 Keeping your footing when markets feel like shifting sand

Wed, 30 Apr 2025 12:37:21 GMT

Hannes van den Berg, unpacks how the team is navigating 2025’s waves of volatility. From sentiment swings and shifting earnings trends to gold’s safe-haven rally and the trade tensions shaping global equities — this conversation offers a timely look at what’s working (and what’s not) and why conviction matters more than ever.

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#24 Fact over fury: dissecting Trump’s first 100 days

Thu, 24 Apr 2025 09:11:24 GMT

A 100 days have flown by. Under the stewardship of Donald Trump, the US and the world have had to sit up and take notice, sometimes for all the wrong reasons. Philip Saunders and Lindsay Williams try to remain non-partisan when discussing this most divisive of US Presidents by analysing his impact on an assortment of asset classes. While Lindsay quietly gnashes his teeth, Philip methodically stands away from screaming headlines and presents facts and prospects.

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#23 Cash Talk: Making your cash work smarter – strategies in a changing rate environment

Mon, 14 Apr 2025 11:58:05 GMT

In this episode, we explore how corporate cash can work harder—without compromising on liquidity or safety. With the repo rate steady and a VAT hike ahead, Tsitsi Hatendi-Matika unpacks practical strategies that can be tailored to match corporates' operational cash flow cycle.

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#22 Europe warrants a revisit as market forces change

Wed, 19 Mar 2025 10:20:42 GMT

The Trump administration’s varied and often controversial executive orders and policy changes have kept market participants on edge. US assets, having been a dominant force for investors for so long have recently underperformed. The fear is that certain measures, notably tariffs, will crimp economic growth and push inflation higher. Philip Saunders discusses whether these fears are justified and if other geographies might take advantage, with a focus on Europe.

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#21 Compromises and trade-offs as Godongwana delivers Budget 2.0

Thu, 13 Mar 2025 08:13:57 GMT

The revised Budget tackles the near-impossible challenge of driving growth while managing fiscal pressures and funding critical sectors. Adam Furlan explores what it reveals about the dynamics within the Government of National Unity (GNU), unpacks the short-term market reaction and long-term implications, and outlines the positioning of the Ninety One Diversified Income Fund.

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#20 Cash Talk: Jibar makes way for Zaronia – What it means for your cash investments

Tue, 11 Mar 2025 09:28:40 GMT

For nearly 25 years, JIBAR (Johannesburg Interbank Average Rate) has been South Africa’s preferred benchmark rate for overnight and term lending. This is set to change as Zaronia (the SA Rand Overnight Index Average) replaces Jibar. In the inaugural episode of our Cash Talk series, Vivienne Taberer unpacks the upcoming changes and the likely impact on cash investments.

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#19 Trump, trade & tactics: what It means for SA investors

Fri, 07 Mar 2025 07:58:59 GMT

The furious pace of political pronouncements in the first quarter of 2025 has economies and markets on high alert. SA has not been spared, as aid from the US has been halted and tariffs threatened. Hannes van den Berg analyses all these factors and explains how he navigates investment decision-making as the noise grows louder.

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#18 Gold and beyond – unpacking the commodities surge

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 12:17:54 GMT

It’s not just gold that’s been on an upward trajectory. Commodity prices across the board have been rising from the low Covid base of 2020. Recent short-term upward momentum has in part been fueled by the much-vaunted Trump tariff syndrome, but other factors are also contributing. George Cheveley summarises the commodities complex with a special focus on gold, and sets out where he sees opportunity.

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#17 Inflation: a pernicious longer-term problem?

Tue, 25 Feb 2025 14:25:13 GMT

Inflation has been on a wild ride since the outbreak of war in Europe, which sent it soaring. Then central banks came to the rescue by raising rates. But has inflation bottomed, and is the line of least resistance to the upside as Trump tariffs loom? John Stopford considers strategies to mitigate the inflationary threat.

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#16 Why this environment calls for an active approach to managing fixed income assets

Tue, 11 Feb 2025 12:27:19 GMT

SA faces the looming Budget, while in the US, Donald Trump is wielding his power as only he can. Against a backdrop of economic growth uncertainty, currency movements and the vagaries of political manoeuvring in a world facing a potential trade war, Malcolm Charles sets out why this environment calls for an active approach and how they’re positioning to navigate it.

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#15 Navigating politics and markets

Mon, 03 Feb 2025 13:47:43 GMT

Gail Daniel, the portfolio manager of Ninety One Manged Fund, analyses Trump’s policy impact on South Africa, covering the Rand, SA bonds, and the Fund’s positioning. She explains the Fund’s offshore preference over SA Inc., highlighting key investment risks and opportunities.

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#14 Central Banks make their monetary mark

Mon, 03 Feb 2025 09:13:12 GMT

Central banks have had a busy start to the year. The Bank of Japan began with an interest rate rise, followed by decisions from the South African Reserve Bank, the ECB and the all-important US Federal Reserve. Ruen Naidoo discusses how expectations have changed from this time last year and considers the implications for SA fixed income investors.

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#13 SA - Optimism stages a (cautious) comeback

Mon, 27 Jan 2025 10:43:47 GMT

The word ‘optimism’ has been conspicuous by its absence for many years when investors and analysts have spoken of the SA economy. Last year, however, it made a tentative return. The GNU has been cheered as the catalyst, but it’s the stabilisation of the economy that is the most encouraging. Sisamkele Kobus discusses the economic indicators of importance and covers inflation, GDP, unemployment and interest rates, and of course the attitude of foreign investors.

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#12 Why bond yields are soaring and what it means for income investors

Fri, 17 Jan 2025 10:46:39 GMT

According to a major American bank the US bond market is in the sixth year of the third great bear market since 1790. But in September of 2024, the tide appeared to turn, before stubborn inflation and a robust US economy knocked the bulls off their perch. Add to that the threat of tariffs and suddenly it’s bear business as usual. Jason Borbora-Sheen unwraps a complicated asset class and sets out where opportunities lie for income investors.

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#11 Why 2025 requires a new investment playbook

Fri, 17 Jan 2025 06:38:24 GMT

With the US performing strongly and China showing signs of turning a corner, a global economic recovery is building. Opportunities abound, but Philip Saunders argues 2025 requires a new investment playbook. He explores where the smart capital will be heading – and where the pitfalls lie. A long, comprehensive and essential listen.

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#10 Defying the sceptics

Thu, 12 Dec 2024 09:25:25 GMT

Any review of asset-class performance in 2024 would doubtless headline ‘Big Tech’, Bitcoin and geopolitics. But delving below the headline grabbers are unloved stocks that have surprised the sceptics. And to great effect. John Biccard discusses his big call ahead of the May 29th elections, how that played out and where he’s seeking opportunity now.

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#9 What do earnings revisions tell us about the outlook for SA Inc?

Tue, 03 Dec 2024 06:52:44 GMT

How do you employ earnings revisions as an investment style, and what role does valuation play when evaluating stocks? Samantha Hartard sets out the SA 4Factor team’s investment approach, and how they apply their thinking to the outlook for SA Inc.

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#8 Two-pot, rate cuts and Black Friday – is the retail sector poised for take-off?

Mon, 02 Dec 2024 09:08:27 GMT

The day after Thanksgiving has become more than a time to sleep off excesses and patch up family squabbles. ‘Black Friday’ has become a day when discounts are dangled to the delight of consumers, and South Africa has not been spared. To mark it Achumile Mashalaba assesses the JSE retail sector, recent results and trading updates and the potential impact of the two-pot system regime.

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#7 Advisor pulse – clarifying two-pot uncertainty

Thu, 21 Nov 2024 07:32:12 GMT

The two-pot retirement regime has revolutionised South Africa’s retirement system. As can be expected with any major change, the industry has raised questions and suggested changes. National Treasury responded accordingly, so Janine Langenhoven clarifies some of the key amendments and the implications for advisors and their clients.

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#6 What reflationary policies mean for markets

Mon, 18 Nov 2024 08:11:26 GMT

Bond markets were feeling rather buoyed by falling inflation and an interest-rate cutting cycle that promised many more moves to the downside. Then along came the US Election and a Trump victory. The campaign that promised even lower inflation was greeted by market participants that disagreed. Trump’s potential policies once in office have been interpreted as reflationary and bond yields have been ticking higher. Adam Furlan explains the implications.

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#5 Trump 2.0 – A remarkable resurrection

Wed, 06 Nov 2024 15:57:03 GMT

In a feat of remarkable political resurrection, Donald Trump is to be the 47th President of the United States. As results trickled in, US equity futures started rising, presumably assuming that Trump will be a business-friendly president. But can the initial reaction be maintained, and what about other asset classes, particularly bonds? Philip Saunders assesses the implications of this seismic political event.

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#4 MTBPS – A boon for infrastructure?

Thu, 31 Oct 2024 08:23:25 GMT

The Medium Term Budget Policy Statement it is an important precursor to the real deal in February 2025, and often serves as a useful barometer of SA’s fiscal state. Growth is sluggish, income crimped and deficits will widen. However, there were no unpleasant surprises and although the rand and bond markets weakened, there was a gratifying air of predictability. Adam Furlan sketches out the speech with particular reference to promised infrastructure spend.

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#3 All that glitters?

Fri, 25 Oct 2024 09:13:02 GMT

Gold has astonished in 2024, making record highs in dollar terms with repetitive regularity. And yet the high-profile gold gathering in Denver Colorado, recently concluded, was not as well attended as in previous years. George Cheveley was there, and although he conceded that a cautious pall hung over the conference, he came away enthused by the yellow metal’s prospects. He looks at why gold is where it is, who has been buying, and how one should consider its future in a world where AI and big tech have distracted potential investors from this asset class.

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#2 Advisor pulse | Addressing clients burning questions

Tue, 22 Oct 2024 06:59:08 GMT

In this first instalment, Marc Lindley delves into a clutch of the questions keeping investors up at night – from solutions for ‘lazy cash’ to walking the trust tightrope.

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#1 SA equities – time to shine?

Fri, 18 Oct 2024 06:23:16 GMT

South African domestic equities have dusted themselves down and shaken off their inferiority complex. Against the backdrop of the GNU, relative electricity supply consistency, falling inflation and interest rates, the JSE is matching its overseas counterparts. Rehana Khan looks at the sectors and companies that are benefiting and explores whether the trend is to become embedded.

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