Frontrunner

Frontrunner - 7th November 2024

Thu, 07 Nov 2024 11:51:04 GMT

The markets have moved down since the beginning of November. The London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) May '25 contract reached a high of £195/t on 1st November before slowly drifting off to a low of £191.50/t. The Marché à Terme International de France (MATIF) December '24 contract followed a similar track, opening November with a high of £221.50/t before drifting off to a low of €212.25/t.

During intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

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Frontrunner - 31st October 2024

Thu, 31 Oct 2024 11:06:24 GMT

The beginning of the week saw wheat futures markets extend their losses, with London wheat futures losing almost 8% of their value since the peak on 3rd October. Improving wheat crop prospects for Argentina this season, as well as for the EU and UK in 2025, encouraged the selling.

The Rosario Grains Exchange raised its Argentina wheat production estimate to 19.5 million tonnes following recent rains. It also raised the wheat export estimate to 13.3 million tonnes, which if achieved would be the second highest ever. Crop ratings for Argentinian wheat increased from 31% to 38%, ‘good/excellent’.

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Frontrunner - 24th October 2024

Thu, 24 Oct 2024 11:29:59 GMT

Having seen a spell of speculative fund short covering propel wheat futures prices to multi-week highs earlier this month, markets have subsequently eased lower again.

Questions remain over Russian wheat exports and the country’s 2025 wheat production potential. However, in the near positions there is a more than adequate supply and with good cover, buyers are back on the side lines. Russian weekly wheat shipments remain at about one million tonnes per week, but this week the country missed out in one international tender.

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Frontrunner - 17th October 2024

Thu, 17 Oct 2024 10:30:29 GMT

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report last Friday but presented no bullish surprises which contributed to a softer spell for world wheat prices.

Minor cuts in production for Brazil, the EU, India and Russia, partly offset by increases for Ukraine, sees world production down 2.8 million tonnes on the previous estimate to a total of 794.08 million tonnes. However, this is still almost four million tonnes up on last year.

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Frontrunner - 10th October 2024

Thu, 10 Oct 2024 10:25:15 GMT

Geopolitical issues triggered spells of speculative short covering in futures markets this week. Trader concerns over the wider repercussions of a potential retaliation by Israel against Iran increased crude oil prices by over 3% on Monday to over $80/t, its highest since 19th July. This had a positive impact on other commodity markets, including wheat.

Away from the tensions in the Middle East, Russian missile strikes on two Ukrainian Black Sea ports, including Odessa, resulted in damage to grain carrying vessels - another reminder of the potential risk around shipping from the world’s cheapest wheat source.

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Frontrunner - 3rd October 2024

Thu, 03 Oct 2024 12:45:24 GMT

Towards the end of last month, speculative traders extended their short positions in Paris wheat futures. They expected weaker prices due to the poor EU wheat export pace and Russia and Ukraine dominating world wheat trade.

Latterly, adverse EU weather raised concerns for winter planting which triggered some short covering and a lift in futures prices. However, news broke on Tuesday that Iran had launched a ballistic missile attack on Israel accelerated the short covering, leading to a sharp jump in all wheat futures markets.

During current intense volatility, markets can move significantly - sometimes in a matter of minutes and outside regular hours. Our MyFarm platform is free to Frontier customers and offers 24-7 access to market information and live grain prices, as well as the option to sell grain at a time that's more convenient. Find out more: www.frontierag.co.uk/myfarminfo

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Frontrunner - 26th September 2024

Thu, 26 Sep 2024 12:01:54 GMT

Further speculative fund short covering helped wheat prices move higher earlier this week. London wheat futures recovered £3 from last week's low, although further gains to match other wheat futures markets were capped by another spell of sterling strength. The pound reached its highest level against the euro and the US dollar since April 2022, with investors attracted by the Bank of England leaving the UK base rate unchanged as the Federal Reserve cut US interest rates by 0.5%.

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Frontrunner - 19th September 2024

Thu, 19 Sep 2024 10:02:51 GMT

The end of last week saw the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) publish its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Any expectations for a bullish report to boost prices were dashed.

World production was cut 1.5 million tonnes to 796.88 million tonnes and there was also a 900,000-tonne rise in consumption which presented a potential marked cut in year-end stocks. However, increases for carry-in Canadian stock to this season to align with StatsCan leaves year-end stocks up 600,000 tonnes on last month to a total of 257.22 million tonnes. Despite this being eight million tonnes down on last year, the market subsequently found ready sellers.

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Frontrunner - 12th September 2024

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 11:29:57 GMT

Wheat futures prices have stabilised over the past week, sitting approximately 7% above their August lows. There is an increasing number of supporting elements to hold prices up, but nothing sufficient enough to move them on to another level yet.

Strong Russian and Ukraine exports dominate world trade and spot Russian wheat offers remain anchored at about $218/t FOB, failing to follow outside markets higher. The lack of rain and low soil moisture for drilling crop '25 is an additional watch for an extensive area covering Eastern Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan. Russian winter drilling is reported to be at its slowest pace since 2013 because of the dryness. According to the Ukraine Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food, just 2% of Ukraine winter wheat area is planted due to record high temperatures and dryness.

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Frontrunner - 5th September 2024

Thu, 05 Sep 2024 14:33:59 GMT

Wheat markets have enjoyed a buoyant start to September. Just three days into the new month Paris futures topped a 9% price gain from their contract lows seen trading during the last week of August. With the US and EU harvests nearing completion and harvest farm selling pressure drying up, trade liquidity has become an issue at the lower price levels. Speculative short covering has provided buying interest, although the primary negative wheat price driver remains in play.

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Frontrunner - 29th August 2024

Thu, 29 Aug 2024 11:05:44 GMT

This season’s leisurely pace of EU wheat exports is contributing to market negativity. To the week ending 25th August, exports are ahead by 238,000 tonnes to a total of 3.927 million tonnes which compares with 5.038 million tonnes last season.

There is a lower surplus of around 27 million tonnes which is four million tonnes below last year. According to analysts Stratégie Grains, this figure will leave a carryover stock almost four million tonnes lower than the carry in. Therefore, it would be premature to be overly concerned for the slower export pace at this stage.

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Frontrunner - 22nd August 2024

Thu, 22 Aug 2024 11:17:15 GMT

Poor EU wheat export demand, particularly for French wheat, sent Paris wheat futures to their lowest levels since the middle of March.

EU wheat shipments were up just 337,000 tonnes on the week to 3.553 million tonnes which compares to 4.527 million tonnes in the same period last year. Romania is the top EU shipper so far with close to 1.5 million tonnes, almost three times the French pace. Egypt has received the most wheat with imports of 505,000 tonnes, followed by Nigeria and Morocco.

The UK is number five on the list, having taken 202,000 tonnes already - which includes German milling wheat. The low protein issues, coupled with the low planted area of UK bread making varieties for this harvest, is limiting availability for our domestic millers. German milling wheat imports look set to be the largest since 2012 as a result and could exceed one million tonnes.

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Frontrunner - 15th August 2024

Thu, 15 Aug 2024 12:06:39 GMT

On Monday this week the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its August World Agricultural Supply Demands Estimate (WASDE). Traders expected to see a slight increase in US wheat production, but despite seeing a higher yield, the USDA also saw a smaller harvested area. This left US wheat production dropping from the previous estimate of 54.66 million tonnes to 53.93 million tonnes.

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Frontrunner - 8th August 2024

Thu, 08 Aug 2024 11:36:27 GMT

Improving production prospects for US wheat and corn has encouraged speculative funds to build near record short positions in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures, sending markets to contract lows at the end of July. The subsequent weakness in the US dollar – which has enabled US grains to be more competitive in export markets - has allowed for a modest wheat price recovery, but strong crop ratings temper any notable buying enthusiasm.

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Frontrunner - 1st August 2024

Thu, 01 Aug 2024 12:01:10 GMT

Up until Wednesday, the past week has seen the bears take control of the market.

London wheat futures for the November contract opened at £195.75/t last Thursday before shedding £8.50/t to a low of £187.25/t on Tuesday – they recovered by close of play Wednesday.

Paris wheat futures for the December contract followed a similar pattern. They opened at €231.25/t last Thursday, then dropped by €9.75/t to a low of €221.50/t and recovered on Wednesday by closing at €227.50/t.

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Frontrunner - 25th July 2024

Thu, 25 Jul 2024 13:15:16 GMT

Reports of poor quality and plunging crop ratings triggered a sharp price rally for wheat futures markets earlier this week, as the French wheat harvest progressed northwards. Paris wheat futures found strength, adding 12 euros from its recent low last week.

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Frontrunner - 18th July 2024

Thu, 18 Jul 2024 10:46:12 GMT

Last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its July World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates (WASDE) report, making notable increases for 2024 world wheat production which was increased by 5.4 million tonnes on the previous report.

This was particularly bearish data which triggered another wave of speculative fund selling and subsequently, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures lost a further 6% of their value - striking new contract lows.

Higher US wheat supply is the main reason for the total increase, with the USDA seeing the US wheat harvested area rising to 38.8 million acres. Yields are seen rising by 2.4 bushels per acre on the USDA's previous estimate to a total of 51.8 bushels per acre. This leaves a crop of 54.6 million tonnes - up 3.6 million tonnes on previous estimate and is the largest US wheat crop since 2016.

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Frontrunner - 11th July 2024

Thu, 11 Jul 2024 11:53:43 GMT

US 2024 wheat production looks set to be the largest for five years as winter wheat harvest progresses at a fast pace and the spring wheat condition continues to improve.

Last month, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) increased its total 2024-25 US wheat crop estimate up to 51 million tonnes which, if realised, will be the biggest crop since 2019 when US farmers harvested over 52 million tonnes.

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Frontrunner - 4th July 2024

Thu, 04 Jul 2024 09:42:38 GMT

June saw a significant decline in wheat prices. Futures prices had peaked at the end of May due to concerns over Russian wheat production for 2024. As these fears eased and prospects for other major wheat producers improved, managed money traders sold heavily.

Consequently, US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures lost 25% of their value. On the last day of June, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported increased wheat and corn stocks compared to the previous year - corn planting is ahead of last year, adding to the bearish sentiment.

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Frontrunner - 27th June 2024

Thu, 27 Jun 2024 12:30:19 GMT

Wheat futures markets have continued to fall as crop concerns ease and demand remains uncertain. Speculative managed funds trading the US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat market were sellers again on Tuesday, for the seventeenth time in the last 19 trading days. This has left the December CBOT position at its lowest since 15th March 2024 and just 16 cents away from the lowest point so far this year.

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Frontrunner - 20th June 2024

Thu, 20 Jun 2024 12:14:21 GMT

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures continued to fall sharply this week, only pausing mid-week when US markets closed for a public holiday. By end-of-trade on Tuesday, the December 2024 position had fallen to its lowest since 22nd April, marking an 18% fall in value from the recent peak on 28th May.

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Frontrunner - 13th June 2024

Thu, 13 Jun 2024 13:45:35 GMT

Global wheat markets continued to fall earlier in the week. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures dropped for the ninth consecutive day on Monday, reaching their lowest levels since early May and marking a 14% decline in value since the recent peak at the end of May.

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Frontrunner - 6th June 2024

Thu, 06 Jun 2024 11:01:15 GMT

This week, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) ended Tuesday 14 cents down, posting its fifth consecutive lower close.

Upbeat US crop condition weighed on the US market, despite a wealth of international trade activity. European markets maintained their value as France proved successful in capturing market share in international trade.

US winter wheat condition improved by one point, increasing to 49% of the area rated 'good/excellent' which is still notably ahead of last year's 36%. 83% is headed which is up on the average 78%. The US wheat harvest is underway with 6% complete, double the pace this time last year and the average.

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Frontrunner - 30th May 2024

Thu, 30 May 2024 09:33:49 GMT

French 2024 wheat futures have hit their highest levels since November 2022, driven by further downgrades in Russia's 2024 wheat harvest potential.

While UK and US markets observed a public holiday on Monday, the Paris market surged by nearly 3%. The Russian Grain Union reported frost damage which affected potentially two million hectares. The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, IKAR, further reduced its Russian wheat production estimate to 81.5 million tonnes, down from 83.5 million tonnes.

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Frontrunner - 23rd May 2024

Thu, 23 May 2024 13:40:50 GMT

Further cuts to Russian 2024 wheat production estimates and concerns for Ukraine output have reignited speculative buying interest, sending futures markets higher and setting new recent highs. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat rose to its highest since August 2023 and French wheat futures to their highest since February 2023, whilst London futures struggled to match the pace as sterling continued to appreciate versus the euro.

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Frontrunner - 16th May 2024

Thu, 16 May 2024 12:41:32 GMT

Last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first grain balance sheet estimates for next season.

World wheat production is seen higher by 10.5 million tonnes on the year to a total of 798.19 million tonnes, but corn will be lower by eight million tonnes to a total of 1.22 billion tonnes. Increases in consumption for both wheat and corn see stocks falling by 4.2 million tonnes and 800,000 tonnes respectively by the end of next season.

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Frontrunner - 9th May 2024

Thu, 09 May 2024 10:55:04 GMT

After a sluggish start to the year, wheat prices experienced a remarkable turnaround in the last days of April, surging to multi-month highs. Speculative funds, which had previously driven prices lower by building record short positions in wheat futures markets, reversed their stance.

However, cooler temperatures and rain over the weekend means buyers have taken a step back and sellers are keen to take advantage of these attractive prices – this has taken markets lower again.

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Frontrunner - 2nd May 2024

Thu, 02 May 2024 10:41:53 GMT

Last week, speculative fund short covering took UK wheat futures to their highest levels in 2024 so far. Prolonged dryness and temperatures in the high 20s across much of southern Russia and east Ukraine were the primary price drivers.

However, cooler temperatures and rain over the weekend means buyers have taken a step back and sellers are keen to take advantage of these attractive prices – this has taken markets lower again.

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Frontrunner - 25th April 2024

Thu, 25 Apr 2024 12:01:58 GMT

In an eventful week for the wheat markets, speculative fund short-covering spurred a sharp ascent, propelling London November 2024 wheat futures past £200/t - their highest level since 10th January. Geopolitical tensions and weather fluctuations initially fuelled the surge, although values retraced mid-week. Escalating missile attacks on the Ukrainian Black Sea port of Odesa by Russia over the weekend, coupled with the US government's proposed $61 billion support for Ukraine's war efforts against Russia, prompted speculative funds to reduce their near-record short positions in global agricultural futures markets.

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Frontrunner - 18th April 2024

Thu, 18 Apr 2024 09:37:01 GMT

Last week's United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) report brought minimal shifts in the global wheat landscape. While world wheat production saw a slight increase to 787.36 million tonnes and consumption rose marginally to 800.1 million tonnes, end stocks dipped to 258.27 million tonnes. Notably, the adjustments made for India hint at a potentially bullish scenario for world wheat markets.

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Frontrunner - 11th April 2024

Thu, 11 Apr 2024 12:24:07 GMT

The latest weekly crop condition and progress report from the US highlights a positive outlook for production potential. Winter wheat maintained a steady condition, seen 56% ‘good/excellent’, which is unchanged on the week. However, this is significantly higher than the same period last year when just 27% of the crop was seen looking this well. Kansas is the number one producing state and edged one point higher on the week, to 49% ‘good/excellent’.

Spring wheat and corn planting is off to a good start with the US spring wheat area 3% planted, as expected, up from 1% last week and last year, and unchanged from the five year average.

The US corn area is 3% planted, which is the same as last year but ahead of the five-year average of 2%. It is important to bear in mind that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) sees US farmers notably cutting their corn planted area to just over 90 million acres, down from 94.6 million acres last year.

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Frontrunner - 4th April 2024

Thu, 04 Apr 2024 11:22:22 GMT

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) presented a bullish set of data before the Easter weekend and sent futures prices higher.

On 1st March, US wheat stocks were marginally higher than average expectations at 1.087 billion bushels versus 1.044 billion bushels. This was also up on last year which was 0.941 billion bushels.

The surprises for the market didn’t come from the stocks though, rather it was the lower-than-expected 2024 US corn and US winter wheat prospective planted areas. Winter wheat is seen down to 34.135 million acres which is at the bottom end of trade guesses - these ranged from 34 million acres to 38.37 million acres and notably the Ag Forum estimated 34.425 million acres.

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Frontrunner - 28th March 2024

Thu, 28 Mar 2024 14:03:18 GMT

World wheat futures markets enjoyed a short-lived price spike at the end of last week. Early on Monday, follow-through buying took Paris futures to their highest since 7th February and 22 euros above the contract low seen earlier this month. Prices rallied following the news that the largest private Russian grain exporter was in dispute with Russian authorities and was not being issued with the appropriate documentation to allow vessels loaded with grain to sail to their end destinations.

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Frontrunner - 21st March 2024

Thu, 21 Mar 2024 12:57:28 GMT

Speculative fund short covering has driven wheat futures higher in recent days, led primarily by gains in the Paris market. The May 2024 contract breached €200/t on Tuesday which was the market’s highest level since 27th February 2024.

The funds had built record short positions in the Paris wheat market but improved physical wheat demand, Black Sea supply concerns and EU political moves have been the catalysts to trigger a need to reduce the exposure to potentially higher prices.

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Frontrunner - 14th March 2024

Thu, 14 Mar 2024 12:53:21 GMT

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) late last Friday afternoon, trimming end stocks for both world wheat and corn which helped to lift prices.

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Frontrunner - 7th March 2024

Thu, 07 Mar 2024 11:44:55 GMT

Earlier this week, both US and French wheat futures fell sharply again and struck new contract lows.

Wheat futures have nearly lost half their value from their peak in May 2022 and are under pressure from abundant world wheat supplies and cheaper export sales from Black Sea origins. Offers are reported to have fallen below $200/t FOB – the sterling equivalent of £157/t for milling quality on a vessel at a Black Sea port.

Algeria is thought to have taken advantage of these low prices, securing up to one million tonnes for June delivery at $228/t, including all freight costs. This is almost $40/t below the prices the country paid in its previous tender and is most likely Russian origin.

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Frontrunner - 29th February 2024

Thu, 29 Feb 2024 12:11:20 GMT

So far, 2024 has proven to be disappointing for wheat prices. London wheat futures lost 20% of their value over the first seven weeks of the new year, but in week eight they managed to reverse the trend and for the first time this year closed higher on the week. There was little to be bullish about and the gains were more a desire for speculative traders to lock in profits as wheat futures bounced higher from their contract lows.

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Frontrunner - 22nd February 2024

Thu, 22 Feb 2024 15:02:26 GMT

So far, 2024 has been a bad year for wheat prices under the weight of world grain.

This is now heavier according to the International Grains Council who raised its latest world corn production estimate by four million tonnes to a total of 1.234 billion tonnes, now 71 million tonnes up on last year. World wheat production was left unchanged at 788 million tonnes.

London wheat futures have lost over 16% of their value since the end of last year and they struck a new contract low earlier this week. Subsequently, a spell of short covering for world markets delivered a £7/t gain and signalled a pause in declining prices. Growers who had set triggers in Frontier's MyFarm online pricing system were notified of this and were able to take advantage of the short reversal in trend.

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Frontrunner - 15th February 2024

Thu, 15 Feb 2024 14:08:31 GMT

Late last Wednesday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and there were very few changes from January’s numbers. Year-end stocks for both world wheat and corn will be less than estimated in the previous month’s report, but the cuts made were insufficient to halt the slide in wheat prices seen since the beginning of 2024.

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Frontrunner - 8th February 2024

Thu, 08 Feb 2024 13:22:43 GMT

By midweek, European wheat markets established new contract lows and extended their 2024 price decline.

Slow demand, uninterrupted wheat exports from the Black Sea and no tangible weather issues has seen London wheat futures shed £25/t in value since the end of 2023. There seems little in sight at this stage to arrest the current trend.

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Frontrunner - 1st February 2024

Thu, 01 Feb 2024 12:15:13 GMT

World wheat prices continued to fall this week, extending the decline that has prevailed since the beginning of 2024. The Paris and London wheat futures markets both fell to new contract lows - the lowest prices seen since July 2021. Over supply and slow demand have encouraged speculative selling, with managed money traders holding record short positions in the Paris market.

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Frontrunner - 25th January 2024

Thu, 25 Jan 2024 11:37:19 GMT

This week UK wheat futures have fallen to new contract lows despite support for US and European wheat markets.

UK feed wheat prices remain around £10/t too expensive to compete for export market share. Traditional UK feed wheat EU export destinations, such as Spain and Ireland, continue to find cheaper offers from other origins and there is no shortage of sales opportunity should prices become competitive.

The EU has so far imported 5.4 million tonnes of wheat - 3.65 million tonnes of that has come from Ukraine. UK exports remain stagnant at less than 130,000 tonnes shipped for the first half of the season, signalling a potential carryover of over three million tonnes of stock into next season.

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Frontrunner - 18th January 2024

Thu, 18 Jan 2024 11:59:55 GMT

Last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first World Agricultural Supply Demands Estimate (WASDE) for 2024, presenting a bearish set of data for both wheat and corn. Subsequently, futures wheat prices dropped sharply and both the Paris and London markets established new contract lows.

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Frontrunner - 11th January 2024

Thu, 11 Jan 2024 11:39:10 GMT

This week world wheat markets have continued the new year in decent shape, as Russia continues to dominate wheat export share by under cutting other origins.

Paris wheat futures fell to new contract lows under the weight of old crop wheat supplies, despite concerns for 2024 production potential. In its latest tender to buy wheat, the General Authority For Supply Commodities (GASC) purchased 420,000 tonnes of Russian wheat for delivery through February and March at the Russian floor price $265 FOB. There was just one French offer which, including freight, was about $17/t too expensive to compete with the Russian sales, highlighting the competitive challenges in world trade.

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Frontrunner - 5th January 2024

Fri, 05 Jan 2024 15:49:47 GMT

The new year hasn’t been positive for wheat markets. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) opened on the first trading day with heavy losses, as speculative funds started to rebuild short positions. European markets followed US markets lower, with Paris wheat futures setting new contract lows.

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Frontrunner - 22nd December 2023

Fri, 22 Dec 2023 13:52:47 GMT

World wheat futures markets are drifting into the festive period, with little change in value but trading above the season’s lows.

There has been no shortage of international trade, however, with Saudi Arabia buying 1.3 million tonnes and Egypt securing 480,000 tonnes in the week before Christmas.

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Frontrunner - 15th December 2023

Fri, 15 Dec 2023 14:42:08 GMT

This week world markets dropped lower, ending last week's strong run of prices in US wheat futures.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) has lost almost half the gains it made after China purchased 1.1 million tonnes of US wheat, meanwhile Black Sea origins reinforced dominance in world trade.

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Frontrunner - 8th December 2023

Fri, 08 Dec 2023 14:49:22 GMT

This week, China - the world’s largest wheat producing country - has put pen to paper with US wheat exporters. Published sales data showed US traders selling around one million tonnes of US wheat to the country and in the process triggered a sharp price rally. As a result of this, the short covering launched Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures 15% higher from the previous week’s multi-month lows.

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Frontrunner - 1st December 2023

Fri, 01 Dec 2023 15:03:48 GMT

Earlier this week, Paris wheat futures dropped to their lowest level in over two years following disappointing export news.

Up to Sunday 26th November, the latest trade data from Brussels put EU wheat exports up to 11.995 million tonnes - 18% behind last year when 14.677 million tonnes had been shipped in the same period.

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Frontrunner - 24th November 2023

Fri, 24 Nov 2023 16:28:05 GMT

World wheat markets have come under further selling pressure this week, with little to no fresh bullish features to be seen.

Whilst demand slows, an improvement in the weather and crop ratings has encouraged speculative funds to build on their short positions in agricultural markets.

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Frontrunner - 17th November 2023

Fri, 17 Nov 2023 17:49:47 GMT

Last week's price spike because of Black Sea supply concerns and confusion over a cap on Russian grain exports seems a distant memory.

The plentiful nearby physical wheat supply is again weighing on markets and whilst Russian exports continue to power ahead, the EU and US are left trailing in its wake. Russia is expected to have its poorest performing month in November since the start of the season, but despite that the country is likely to ship about four million tonnes of wheat as it continues to dominate world trade.

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Frontrunner 10th November 2023

Fri, 10 Nov 2023 15:58:55 GMT

This week has brought more volatility across the US and European wheat markets.

On 3rd November, London International LIFFE (Financial Futures and Options Exchange) closed at £200.50/t. Since then, London futures traded in a £7.05/t range between £205.00/t and £197.95/t before closing last night at £201.05/t.

MATIF (Marché à Terme International de France) followed a similar pattern, closing at €240.00/t on 3rd November. Futures traded in a €8.25/t range between €245.00/t and €236.75/t before closing at €239.75/t last night.

Across the Atlantic, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed at $6.164 per bushel on 3rd November. It then traded in a $0.29 range between $6.082 and $6.372 before closing out last night at $6.220.

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Frontrunner - 3rd November 2023

Fri, 03 Nov 2023 15:44:49 GMT

It has been a relatively quiet trade week, with a lot of Europe out of the market for All Saints Day on Wednesday. The Marché à Terme International de France (MATIF) remained open, but it was very quiet.

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Frontrunner - 27th October 2023

Fri, 27 Oct 2023 16:23:57 GMT

European wheat futures prices were notably lower this week with little fresh trade news to enthuse buying.

Amid strong Black Sea competition, the disappointing EU wheat export pace is behind last season and is leading to concerns that a burdensome carry out will come into fruition.

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Frontrunner - 20th October 2023

Fri, 20 Oct 2023 14:57:39 GMT

World wheat futures markets have been choppy this week, but have edged forward and recovered from the lows seen at the end of last month.

Speculative funds holding significant short positions have taken some cover because of the uncertainty around increasing tensions in the Middle East, as well as the rise in other commodity prices such as crude oil.

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Frontrunner - 13th October 2023

Fri, 13 Oct 2023 14:13:04 GMT

Wheat futures markets came under pressure again this week, extending recent losses under the weight of fresh export sales from Russia.

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Frontrunner - 6th October 2023

Fri, 06 Oct 2023 16:20:00 GMT

Late last Friday the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated the markets with its latest US wheat production estimates. The data showed a marked increase over its previous figures, ahead of the most upbeat pre-report trader estimates, which resulted in a sharp fall in wheat futures.

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Frontrunner - 29th September 2023

Fri, 29 Sep 2023 14:44:45 GMT

Russia's appetite for world wheat export market share continues to be the primary bearish market driver. The latest estimates see Russia shipping 5.1 million tonnes of wheat in September and although this is 200,000 tonnes below last month, the first quarter of the season will now see a staggering 14.8 million tonnes shipped. On average, this figure is more than one million tonnes each week. There's also a quest for future sales, made evident by the news of intergovernmental discussions with Egypt for the supply of another one million tonnes of wheat.

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Frontrunner - 22nd September 2023

Fri, 22 Sep 2023 16:18:13 GMT

Despite UK wheat futures prices falling back from their recent highs earlier this week, weaker sterling is now edging them upwards although current values are only £10/t over the futures contract lows.

Consumer demand has helped maintain domestic values, but UK feed wheat export prices remain at least £10/t above other origins irrespective of sterling’s fall. Therefore, feed wheat exports remain uncompetitive and aren’t attracting any fresh business. To date, UK wheat shipments into the EU amount to little a more than 90,000 tonnes and currently face stiff competition from Ukraine wheat.

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Frontrunner - 15th September 2023

Fri, 15 Sep 2023 17:22:32 GMT

Last week’s trade ended quietly with all markets posting small losses at the close. The London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE) was down £0.85/t, Marché à Terme International de France (MATIF) lost €1.50/t and the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell by $0.05/t.

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Frontrunner - 8th September 2023

Fri, 08 Sep 2023 15:32:45 GMT

Russia continues to dominate world wheat export trade whilst the US and EU fall further behind, leaving falling prices. Leading analysts revised estimates and put the Russian wheat crop between 91 and 92 million tonnes, with exports for the season between 48.5 and 49.5 million tonnes. 20% or more of that export target has already been achieved during the first two months of the season, with 9.7 million tonnes reportedly shipped by the end of August at record pace.

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Frontrunner - 1st September 2023

Fri, 01 Sep 2023 14:52:11 GMT

With the Russian wheat harvest progressing further than expected, yields are leading more analysts to revise their crop estimates for Russia - the world's leading wheat exporter.

Total production is now seen ranging between 91 and 92 million tonnes, therefore creating potential for a higher record export target of 49.5 million tonnes. The first two months got off to a racing start, with estimates of 9.5 million tonnes shipped during July and August. However, the government has since imposed an official floor price for new wheat tenders and this may result in a slowing of the current pace.

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Frontrunner - 25th August 2023

Fri, 25 Aug 2023 15:10:59 GMT

Many UK farmers crossed the finish line this week, bringing a welcome end to one of the most challenging harvests for over a decade. Continued periods of rain delayed combining – a complete contrast to last year’s harvest where prolonged dryness allowed for the earliest and quickest harvest since 1976.

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Frontrunner - 11th August 2023

Fri, 11 Aug 2023 16:26:30 GMT

The week started with a sharp rally for wheat futures prices following a weekend of military action between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine seaborne drone attacks on Russian commercial shipping, including a tanker near the Crimean, caused renewed wheat supply fears. Russia is currently shipping between 3.5 to 4.5 million tonnes of wheat each month, with approximately 70% of this total coming from its Black Sea ports. Any tangible disruption to sea freight will have a positive impact on prices, especially if importers are forced to seek supplies from alternative sources such as the EU or the US.

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Frontrunner - 4th August 2023

Fri, 04 Aug 2023 15:29:41 GMT

Wheat futures prices continued to fall this week, dampening any signs of trade activity much like the UK weather is doing for harvest progress. Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding Black Sea wheat supply, US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures fell again on Thursday for the seventh consecutive trading day. This wiped out all the gains made since 17th July when Russia withdrew from the Black Sea export corridor deal with Ukraine. Russia has continued to launch drone strikes on the Ukrainian Black Sea Port of Odesa and River Danube grain loading terminals, Reni and Izmail. However, it would seem markets have become immune to any potential supply chain disruptions this might create, with the EU also stating it would fund an initiative to create export lanes for Ukrainian grain through EU member states to ensure a continued flow to the nations which need it.

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Frontrunner - 28th July 2023

Fri, 28 Jul 2023 14:58:14 GMT

This week, US wheat futures markets rallied to briefly touch their highest level since late February this year in what has been a notably volatile period of trade. On Monday, aggressive fund short covering took prices to their daily trading limit of 60 cents up - the equivalent of a 9% price gain. The primary trigger for the gains was the Russian military attacks on Ukrainian grain loading terminals on the River Danube. This river has proven an effective export route for Ukraine wheat and other grains since the Russian invasion in February last year. However, coupled with the attacks on the Black Sea port of Odessa, it seems that Russia is intent on preventing any Ukraine access to world markets. Wheat prices subsequently eased through the week when the EU said it would fund Ukrainian grain transit costs through EU member states to help maintain Ukraine exports, and Russia said it would provide free grain for six African nations to ensure they are not left short.

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Frontrunner - 21st July 2023

Fri, 21 Jul 2023 16:08:19 GMT

Events unfolding because of the Russia/Ukraine conflict have once again had a major impact on world wheat prices this week. Following months of threats, Russia chose to halt its engagement with the UN-brokered Black Sea wheat export deal on Monday, which previously allowed vessels to safely collect wheat and other grains from selected Ukraine Black Sea ports. Since its inception a year ago, the deal has seen almost 33 million tonnes of grains and oilseeds shipped around the world, helping to supply some of the poorest nations.

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Frontrunner - 14th July 2023

Fri, 14 Jul 2023 14:49:17 GMT

This week the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. It added weight and area to both US wheat and corn crops. The increasing supply of these crops triggered a wave of selling and futures prices went back down to early June levels.

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Frontrunner - 7th July 2023

Fri, 07 Jul 2023 15:37:13 GMT

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) struck a bearish blow to global grain markets late last Friday, announcing a shock increase in the 2023-24 US corn planted and harvested area. This came following an increasingly optimistic view on yield potential for the crop, with the recent arrival of widespread rain across the US corn belt following a sustained spell of dryness.

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Frontrunner - 30th June 2023

Fri, 30 Jun 2023 15:57:47 GMT

The week started with news that the Wagner Group’s attempted coup against the Russian government had failed. In addition, Sterling has weakened against the Euro over the past week while it has strengthened against the US dollar.

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Frontrunner - 23rd June 2023

Fri, 23 Jun 2023 14:58:54 GMT

From early 2023, speculative funds had built near record short positions in agriculture futures markets. The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat market alone received over 120,000 contracts which is the equivalent of over 16 million tonnes. This process helped wheat prices decrease to multi-month lows at the end of May, but the current month has seen a price recovery.

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Frontrunner - 16th June 2023

Fri, 16 Jun 2023 15:09:50 GMT

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published revisions to its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report late last Friday afternoon. There was a notable jump in its world wheat production estimate, which it now sees rising to over 800 million tonnes. This is 10.4 million tonnes up on last month and 12 million tonnes up on last year. It came as a surprise to many that the USDA did not cut production estimates for areas where adverse weather may reduce output potential. For example, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) recently cut its country’s production potential by a third on last year’s figure to 26.2 million tonnes due to the expected negative impact on yields from the El Nino weather.

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Frontrunner - 9th June 2023

Fri, 09 Jun 2023 16:58:42 GMT

The world’s wheat futures fell to new multi-month lows last week, with London wheat dropping to its lowest value since mid-January 2022. However, a combination of weather-related factors and concerns for the security of supplies from the Black Sea helped deliver five consecutive days of positive closing prices and an overall gain of around 9% from this low.

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Frontrunner - 2nd June 2023

Fri, 02 Jun 2023 15:29:31 GMT

For most of this week wheat values have remained on the defensive with London International Financial Futures and Options Exchange (LIFFE), Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and Marche A Terme International de France (MATIF) all falling to their lowest point in over a year. Without much bullish news traders continued to add to their short positions after the small bounce in prices last week.

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Frontrunner - 26th May 2023

Fri, 26 May 2023 16:32:31 GMT

World wheat markets continued to fall this week, following Russia’s agreement to extend the Black Sea export corridor deal until the 17th July. Prospects of a continued flow of Ukrainian wheat have kept speculative sellers active. Encouraging data for improved crop potential in both the US and EU added to the market negativity. US winter wheat condition gained two points to 31% now rated ‘good/excellent’ and US corn planting reached 81% completion - up 16 points on the week, which is six points ahead of the five-year average.

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Frontrunner - 19th May 2023

Fri, 19 May 2023 14:43:51 GMT

Late last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its first look at the world’s 2023-24 grain balance sheets, with a contrasting outlook for wheat and corn. World wheat production is seen rising by 1.5 million tonnes up to 789.76 million tonnes, but year-end stocks will fall by two million tonnes down to 264.34 million tonnes – this will be the lowest for seven years.

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Frontrunner - 12th May 2023

Fri, 12 May 2023 15:28:02 GMT

Last week’s wheat price gains were quickly lost this week as the weight of old crop stocks, demand concerns and improving 2023 production prospects motivated selling interest. Despite uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the Black Sea export corridor deal and increased hostility from Russia towards Ukraine, eastern EU states are heavy with previously imported Ukrainian supplies.

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Frontrunner - 5th May 2023

Fri, 05 May 2023 14:49:49 GMT

World wheat futures dropped again this week, extending their 2023 losing streak. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) figures dropped to their lowest since December 2020 and London old crop futures struck a new contract low which was almost half the peak price it achieved during May last year.

Russian wheat exports remain the primary negative price driver, dominating world trade with an estimated five million tonnes shipped during April alone, taking the season’s total above 37 million tonnes. Analysts see over 44 million tonnes likely to be shipped by the end of the season on 30th June.

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Frontrunner - 28th April 2023

Fri, 28 Apr 2023 15:58:56 GMT

This week, Canada’s national statistical office, Statistics Canada (StatsCan), published its first look at 2023 Canadian crop potential and farmer planting intentions. Canadian farmers are set to increase their wheat area by around 6% on last year, to 27 million acres. If realised, this would be the largest drilled area since 2001. This potential boost to global supplies exceeded trade expectations and added to the market price negativity.

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Frontrunner - 21st April 2023

Fri, 21 Apr 2023 16:18:40 GMT

Wheat futures markets rose sharply earlier this week, with traders concerned over the flow of grain from the Black Sea. Prices increased by around 6%, with Russia casting doubt on its renewal of the Ukraine Black Sea export deal next month. Subject to the terms of the deal, vessels entering or exiting the Ukrainian Black Sea must be inspected. However, Russia has blocked inspections as vessels passed through Turkish waters for a second day, which has prompted Ukraine to say that the export deal is at danger of collapse. Russia warned that prospects of an extension to the deal will be low once its previous 60-day extension ends in the middle of May unless certain criteria are met in respect to Western sanctions. Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, will meet UN representatives next week.

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Frontrunner - 14th April 2023

Fri, 14 Apr 2023 12:29:12 GMT

This week, London wheat futures fell to their lowest since the beginning of 2022. Lower-than-expected use in both the animal feed and bioethanol sectors has created a heavy domestic balance sheet. This, combined with scarce export opportunity, has put pressure on prices and led to a notable discount on new crop.

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Frontrunner - 6th April 2023

Thu, 06 Apr 2023 15:51:26 GMT

London wheat futures fell lower again this week, with old crop prices falling close to multi-month lows, the lowest since the 22nd of March. Selling was encouraged by lower world markets and what is likely to be a significant UK carry over stock from this season into next.

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Frontrunner - 31st March 2023

Fri, 31 Mar 2023 16:49:32 GMT

Wheat futures markets continued to rally until mid-week, making impressive gains from last week’s multi-month lows. The London wheat market added £19/t which encouraged further farmer selling, but with limited interest in physical wheat buying, domestic prices subsequently dropped again towards the end of the week.

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Frontrunner - 24th March 2023

Fri, 24 Mar 2023 16:00:01 GMT

Last weekend the Black Sea export corridor deal was renewed. Despite demands from Ukraine for a minimum extension of 120 days, all parties ultimately agreed to Russia’s proposal of a maximum of 60 days. Russia said an extension of the deal beyond mid-May will depend on the removal of some western sanctions.

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Frontrunner - 17th March 2023

Fri, 17 Mar 2023 16:09:43 GMT

Wheat markets have endured a volatile week’s trading with focus on the talks between representatives from Ukraine, Russia and the UN as they discussed the renewal of the Black Sea export deal.

Russian officials have indicated that there is no objection from Russia to a deal extension, but that this extension would be limited to a 60-day term. This is due to Russia’s belief that western sanctions are preventing the free flow of its agricultural produce and harming its trade. In response, a Ukrainian official has stated that anything less than a 120-day extension would be in violation of the agreement. At the time of writing, the UN has not confirmed an extension or provided further details on possible terms.

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Frontrunner - 10th March 2023

Fri, 10 Mar 2023 16:08:23 GMT

World wheat futures markets continued to fall this week and have now lost 14% of their value since the end of 2022. The primary drivers for the market negativity are twofold. Firstly, the ongoing competition from cheap Russian wheat exports following Russia’s record 2022 wheat crop; and secondly, a strong belief the Ukraine Black Sea export deal with Russia and the UN will renew at the end of next week. If this is the case, Ukraine will continue to ship cheaply offered wheat, corn and other grains on world markets. This makes it likely the US, the EU and other major exporters will be left with burdensome year end stocks.

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Frontrunner - 24th February 2023

Fri, 24 Feb 2023 15:22:51 GMT

European wheat markets have fallen sharply this week, dropping back to price levels seen towards the end of last month. Markets had previously risen due to concerns around the Ukraine Black Sea export deal with Russia and the UN not likely to renew next month, which will be when the timeline for the previous agreement comes to an end. Recent comments from Russian officials suggested some dissatisfaction that the deal was not working in its favour. However, in a public address this week, President Putin made no comments to indicate the deal will not be renewed. Despite this, a date for renegotiation has not yet been set. Ukraine will ask Turkey and the UN for a one-year extension to the export deal and to expand it to include the ports of Mykolaiv.

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Frontrunner - 17th February 2023

Fri, 17 Feb 2023 15:57:49 GMT

There were few developments in the wheat market this week, with attention remaining focused on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Next week will mark one year since the conflict began and this has seen London wheat futures reach their highest level since the 24th March.

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Frontrunner - 10th February 2023

Fri, 10 Feb 2023 15:23:48 GMT

This week world wheat markets continued their February recovery, shaking off the January blues. London wheat futures reached their highest level since 6th January, following European markets higher. The euro has been weak compared to the US dollar, with a 2% drop in value from last week’s ten-month high. This allows EU wheat to become more competitive and a key factor in trying to secure export sales to Algeria in its latest tender. Official EU wheat exports are now seen at 19 million tonnes, although private analysts estimate shipments at least one million tonnes ahead of that figure from an overall surplus of 30 million tonnes.

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Frontrunner - 3rd February 2023

Fri, 03 Feb 2023 15:19:17 GMT

US wheat production prospects for the 2023 harvest remain in question following a period of challenging weather conditions, also taking into account an increase in the planted area. In January, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated US farmers had planted 36.95 million acres - an 11% increase on the year. Although others estimate less, if this growth is accurate there is a question around how much of that area will provide a crop.

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Frontrunner - 27th January 2023

Fri, 27 Jan 2023 17:34:03 GMT

Wheat futures saw further aggressive selling on Monday which extended the negative price run that began in early 2023. Chicago Board of Trade wheat futures dropped to their lowest level since October 2021 with sellers encouraged by weekend rains and snow that fell across much of the US winter wheat producing states.

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Frontrunner - 20th January 2023

Fri, 20 Jan 2023 16:06:12 GMT

Russia’s military activity in Ukraine have had a significant influence on wheat prices over the past 11 months. Last May, wheat futures soared to record high levels as the Russian invasion of Ukraine halted Black Sea exports from one of the world’s primary wheat exporters. The subsequent arrival of a record Russian wheat crop - now put above 104 million tonnes - has resulted in notable wheat exports, increasing their market share in world markets. This has contributed to wheat futures prices falling back to levels not seen before the conflict. This week, official analysts raised this season’s Russian wheat export estimate to 45.5 million tonnes, up from 33 million tonnes last season. Cheap Russian wheat sales saw the country’s export pace rise by one million tonnes per week in December.

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Frontrunner - 13th January 2023

Fri, 13 Jan 2023 16:29:00 GMT

Wheat futures rallied over the festive break with many regaining the losses they had posted earlier in December. The primary driver for this was the extreme cold that hit a significant part of the US winter wheat belt with freezing temperatures as far south as Texas raising concerns for winter kill. US winter wheat was already in poor shape with over 70% of the area drilled in drought conditions heading into the winter.

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Frontrunner - 6th January 2023

Fri, 06 Jan 2023 15:32:34 GMT

Wheat markets enjoyed some festive cheer over the Christmas holiday season. Prices moved higher and regained the losses they had made since the end of November. However, this short-term blip reversed in the new year with sharp declines and futures markets headed back down towards multi-month lows.

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Frontrunner - 16th December 2022

Fri, 16 Dec 2022 16:25:37 GMT

UK wheat futures have struggled to recover from last week’s 9-month lows. UK wheat futures are currently hindered by low world prices and a slow export pace. Official customs data puts UK wheat shipments to the end of October at 313,700 tonnes and it is likely a further 200,000 tonnes will have been shipped by the end of December.

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Frontrunner - 9th December 2022

Fri, 09 Dec 2022 15:55:22 GMT

European and US wheat futures prices have continued to fall this week. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures fell to their lowest since the end of September 2021 and Paris wheat futures to their lowest since March 2022.

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Frontrunner - 2nd December 2022

Fri, 02 Dec 2022 16:25:00 GMT

US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures have fallen to three-month lows and are now trading at levels last seen before the start of the Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Traders are focused on the situation in China, where strict Covid-19 lockdowns are expected to result in reduced demand and lower-than-expected import requirements.

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Frontrunner - 25th November 2022

Fri, 25 Nov 2022 15:15:11 GMT

Wheat market volatility continued again this week, with London wheat futures falling £12/t below last week’s highs. The extended Ukraine Black Sea export deal with Russia, coupled with the record Russian wheat crop and cheap export values, continues to pressure prices. However, support comes from robust demand for EU wheat.

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Frontrunner - 18th November 2022

Fri, 18 Nov 2022 16:50:10 GMT

This week, wheat markets continued to fall and have seen further losses in value – over £30/t since the beginning of the month.

The primary bearish price driver has been the hope that Russia would extend the grain export corridor agreement in the Black Sea. On Thursday, the UN Secretary-General confirmed the deal would be extended for 120 days.

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Frontrunner - 11th November 2022

Fri, 11 Nov 2022 16:18:31 GMT

European prices have steadily declined to levels last seen in mid-September as a push of cheap exports from key producers has occurred. Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) and Algeria have tendered for Dec/Jan wheat shipments with Russia leading the supply race by pricing significantly below competing origins.

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Frontrunner - 4th November 2022

Fri, 04 Nov 2022 15:46:36 GMT

Benchmark global wheat prices lifted 6% on Monday in a knee-jerk reaction to news from the weekend that Putin was withdrawing from the safe Black Sea corridor agreement. Consequently, insurers refused to grant fresh cover for vessels that were returning to Ukraine which caused concern for the 22 boats anchored in Ukrainian ports waiting to be loaded - a further 101 are awaiting inspection. London futures rallied from £12 to a high of £293, which ignited UK farmers to market large volumes at prices not seen for a month.

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Frontrunner - 28th October 2022

Fri, 28 Oct 2022 13:48:11 GMT

Markets slipped lower this week but further problems for Southern Hemisphere wheat production helped generate a mild recovery on Thursday. In southeastern Australia, persistent rain and consequential flooding across thousands of acres of arable land is damaging yield and quality. At this stage it is uncertain what impact this will have on total Australian wheat production. Recent estimates are at 34 million tonnes which would be the country’s second ever highest crop after last year’s record of 36.3 million tonnes.

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Frontrunner - 21st October 2022

Fri, 21 Oct 2022 14:34:52 GMT

The possibility that the Black Sea export corridor agreement will be renewed has influenced markets this week. However, whether this renewal will be realised remains in question. President Putin has reportedly commented that a recent attack on the Kerch Bridge, which links Russia to Crimea, was a result of weapons that were smuggled via the corridor and therefore he is unsure whether a renewal of the agreement is in the best interests of Russia.

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Frontrunner - 14th October 2022

Fri, 14 Oct 2022 14:31:17 GMT

Wheat futures prices surged to a three-month high on Monday. Speculators and trade shorts raced for cover due to the Russian missile strikes on civilian targets in many cities across Ukraine, fearful of an escalation of the conflict and an interruption to exports from the Black Sea. However, markets subsequently eased lower as shipments continued. Comments in the media that Russia may cancel an export quota also triggered selling, although with a record 150 million tonne grain crop - 100 million tonnes of which is wheat – this hardly suggests any restriction for exports is necessary.

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Frontrunner - 7th October 2022

Fri, 07 Oct 2022 14:31:01 GMT

Late last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its final 2022 US wheat production estimate and surprised markets by cutting over 130 million bushels from its September estimate, which was in line with average trade expectations. The USDA sees the crop down to 1,650 million bushels; the equivalent of 44.9 million tonnes. This reduction in the US wheat production estimate coupled with lower-than-expected corn and wheat stocks in the US (as of 1st September) saw futures prices make sharp gains. The rally continued into the beginning of this week.

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Frontrunner - 30th September 2022

Fri, 30 Sep 2022 14:22:18 GMT

World wheat markets continued to rise this week, driven higher by heightened tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Threats to the longevity of the safe Black Sea export corridor amidst the increasingly aggressive rhetoric from the Kremlin has encouraged further short covering and speculative buying of wheat futures. Over 210 vessels carrying agricultural produce have now left Ukrainian Black Sea ports since the UN-brokered deal was signed with Russia, but there is increasing doubt the deal will extend beyond the expiry of the initial agreement in November.

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Frontrunner - 23rd September 2022

Fri, 23 Sep 2022 15:39:55 GMT

London wheat futures rallied to their highest point since the 11thJuly this week as a result of escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. President Putin said he was mobilising 300,000 additional reserves and announced other activity that has concerned markets. The comments from Putin saw Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures rise by over 7% as the shorts covered their positions fearing disruption to essential Ukrainian agricultural produce exports.

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Frontrunner - 16th September 2022

Fri, 16 Sep 2022 16:28:36 GMT

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its September updates to the World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates (WASDE) report on Monday afternoon, which helped wheat futures prices rally to a two-month high mid-week. However, lower corn production estimates currently provide the main price driver for wheat.

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Frontrunner - 2nd September 2022

Fri, 02 Sep 2022 14:19:43 GMT

Wheat futures moved sharply higher earlier this week, although prices remained in the trading range that has prevailed for the past two months. Traders reacted to lower corn production estimates for both the US and EU, the result of prolonged dry and hot weather conditions that have proved damaging for yield potential.

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Frontrunner - 26th August 2022

Fri, 26 Aug 2022 15:48:51 GMT

Wheat prices moved higher early in the week in response to strong gains in US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures, which rose to a two-month high. Corn futures rose in reaction to disappointing results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour as it progressed through the main corn-producing states. Iowa is the world’s number one corn producer, yet yields from Western Iowa were reported at 181.12 bu/ac, which has fallen from 183.96 bu/ac last year and is lower than the three-year average of 183.47 bu/ac.

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Frontrunner - 19th August 2022

Fri, 19 Aug 2022 14:34:25 GMT

London wheat futures fell to their lowest level for almost five months this week following the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report published late last Friday afternoon. The USDA increased its estimate for world wheat production by eight million tonnes on last month’s estimate to a new world total of 779.6 million tonnes. If realised, this will be a record.

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Frontrunner - 12th August 2022

Fri, 12 Aug 2022 14:52:51 GMT

By the 7th August, EU wheat exports reached 2.49 million tonnes; this is marginally ahead of last year. However, Brussels state the data is incomplete and private analysts see shipments 30% ahead of last year. French shipments alone are thought to be at least half a million tonnes understated.

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Frontrunner - 5th August 2022

Fri, 05 Aug 2022 14:30:13 GMT

One grain ship leaving a Ukrainian Black Sea port was sufficient for world wheat futures markets to come under notable selling pressure this week. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat fell to a six-month low...

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Frontrunner - 29th July 2022

Fri, 29 Jul 2022 14:32:57 GMT

This week, the world’s wheat futures markets have recovered all the losses they took last Friday. Prices then fell sharply due to Russia and Ukraine signing a deal with Turkey and the United Nations (UN). The deal set out to ship trapped wheat and other grains and oilseeds from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports. However, the market is now reacting to the reality that shipping through these ports will, for some time, be a slow process as there are challenges in securing the resources needed to resume operations whilst the hostilities with Russia continue. Russia launched a missile attack on a vessel in Odessa a day after the deal was signed, which highlighted the fragile nature of the agreement. A week later we are still waiting to see the first vessel to sail.

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Frontrunner - 22nd July 2022

Fri, 22 Jul 2022 15:24:22 GMT

After weeks of talks and negotiations, Turkish officials said that a deal to allow safe Ukrainian grain exports from Black Sea ports would be signed at a ceremony in Istanbul on Friday 22nd July 2022. Russia and Ukraine are reported to have reached agreement with the UN and Turkey although at the time of writing there has been no official confirmation from either Russia or Ukraine and the details of the agreement have not been released.

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Frontrunner - 15th July 2022

Fri, 15 Jul 2022 15:49:11 GMT

On Tuesday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its July updates to its World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates (WASDE) report. Revisions were relatively mild but continued long liquidation on futures markets was encouraged by increases to production estimates and stocks for US wheat and corn, as well as cuts to world demand figures for each commodity resulting in a higher stock than the previous month.

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Frontrunner - 8th July 2022

Fri, 08 Jul 2022 14:51:22 GMT

The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) adopted a change to its method for wheat import purchases this week, entering into direct talks with exporters in preference to where it usually holds a general purchase tender. Egypt bought around 444,000 tonnes, adding to the 815,000 tonnes it bought last week, split between Russia with 214,000 tonnes, France with 170,000 tonnes and 60,000 tonnes from Romania. Shipment will be between September through to the end of October and contrasts significantly to last season, where early imports were dominated by Russian and Ukrainian supplies. The EU has dominated the sales, securing two thirds of the 1.2 million tonnes made in recent days. This highlights the attraction and importance of competitive grain, free from taxes, quotas or sanctions. Egypt has subsequently bought a further 63,000 tonnes from Germany at $420 including freight and it is rumoured further sizeable German sales have been made to Iran.

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Frontrunner - 1st July 2022

Fri, 01 Jul 2022 14:51:52 GMT

The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) made its largest single wheat purchase for over 13 years this week, buying 815,000 tonnes for shipment during August, September and October. Last weekend, the Egyptian Minister for Supply and Internal Trade said his country needed to import ten million tonnes of wheat over the next six months while having secured 3.9 million tonnes from local farmers and having wheat reserves sufficient for almost six months.

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Frontrunner - 24th June 2022

Fri, 24 Jun 2022 15:10:20 GMT

World wheat futures have fallen sharply this week, as highlighted by the US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), for which wheat values declined almost 9.5% since last Friday’s close. These losses have been driven by fears of demand destruction in light of failing economies, unaffordable high commodity prices and grain that remains trapped in Ukraine.

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Frontrunner - 17th June 2022

Fri, 17 Jun 2022 14:35:23 GMT

Late last Friday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report but it made few changes to the previous month’s wheat and corn world balance sheets. However, markets rallied from the low levels of trading before the report, where traders had squared long positions in case of bearish data.

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Frontrunner - 10th June 2022

Fri, 10 Jun 2022 15:10:01 GMT

Recent market weakness has been driven by expectations that a solution will be found for releasing trapped Ukrainian grain for shipment through Black Sea ports. This week, meetings took place in Turkey with Russian officials to secure safe routes for grain exports.

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Frontrunner - 27th May 2022

Fri, 27 May 2022 16:22:11 GMT

Wheat futures markets have again been volatile this week and have fallen sharply with losses extending by over 10% from the record highs reached earlier this month. Long liquidation and speculative selling gathered pace in response to newswire reports that Russia would provide a humanitarian corridor for vessels carrying food to leave Ukraine.

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Frontrunner - 20th May 2022

Fri, 20 May 2022 15:18:11 GMT

The world’s wheat futures markets opened the week with another notable rise in prices, setting new record highs following the news that India would ban wheat exports with immediate effect.

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Frontrunner - 13th May 2022

Fri, 13 May 2022 14:48:26 GMT

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report this week along with its eagerly awaited first look at the 2022-23 season.

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Frontrunner - 6th May 2022

Fri, 06 May 2022 14:36:52 GMT

The primary price driver for the world’s wheat markets continues to be the impact on supply chains resulting from the conflict in Ukraine.

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Frontrunner - 29th April 2022

Fri, 29 Apr 2022 15:01:58 GMT

There are new contract highs for 2022 European new crop wheat futures this week, as markets continue to react to the longer-term threats to Black Sea wheat supplies - particularly those from Ukraine. The London November 2022 contract passed £300/t for the first time and the old crop May 2022 contract set a new record with a high of £332.20/t.

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Frontrunner - 22nd April 2022

Fri, 22 Apr 2022 14:34:36 GMT

European wheat futures started the post-easter bank holiday weekend with strong gains, with both the Paris and London new crop markets setting new contract highs in early trade following stronger US wheat markets. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures were higher on the latest crop condition report and the overall situation is worse than trade expectations. Winter wheat slipped two points to just 30% good/excellent, this compares to 53% last year and trade expectations at 33%. The crop condition index has only been worse in one of the past 35 years at this stage of development.

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Frontrunner - 14th April 2022

Thu, 14 Apr 2022 15:06:01 GMT

New crop European wheat futures rallied further this week and set new contract highs, reflecting trade concerns around the prospect of a long-term conflict between Ukraine and Russia. London November 2022 wheat futures briefly touched £295/t, almost double its initial trades and the contract low made in September 2020. The extent of the loss of Ukraine as one of the world’s major grain exporters was highlighted by comments from a Ukrainian official, who said corn exports this season would be 17 million tonnes.

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Frontrunner - 8th April 2022

Fri, 08 Apr 2022 14:26:57 GMT

Grain markets have continued to see volatile trading and early in the week US wheat futures rallied following the first 2022 national crop condition and progress report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Winter wheat crops are in a particularly poor condition, with ratings as bad as they have ever been at this time of year, with the exception of the 1996 crop. Crops have suffered from prolonged dry conditions, expanding drought and storms in December.

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Frontrunner - 1st April 2022

Fri, 01 Apr 2022 14:39:55 GMT

Wheat markets continue to experience notable price volatility in response to developments in the conflict in Ukraine. US wheat futures fell sharply on Tuesday to their lower trading limit and to their lowest level since 1st March. This is in response to encouraging comments made in peace talks being held in Istanbul.

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Frontrunner - 25th March 2022

Fri, 25 Mar 2022 17:09:46 GMT

The escalating conflict following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent fears for future wheat supplies from the Black Sea led to extreme volatility in the wheat market this week, resulting in new record highs for futures markets. Wheat futures rose to their highest on record this week, with Paris futures exceeding €400/t and London futures rising above £300/t, breaking the previous record set in 2008.

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Frontrunner - 18th March 2022

Fri, 18 Mar 2022 16:18:45 GMT

Wheat futures continued to see volatile trading this week as the trade reacted to the impact of the worsening conflict between Russia and Ukraine. There were early notable falls in prices with reports that peace talks between Russia and Ukraine were making some headway and that all five of Russia’s Black Sea ports were operating normally for grain shipments.

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Frontrunner - 11th March 2022

Fri, 11 Mar 2022 17:24:48 GMT

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Frontrunner - 4th March 2022

Fri, 04 Mar 2022 16:11:03 GMT

Wheat markets have been extremely volatile this week due to the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine. London old crop wheat futures hit a high, which was more than £50/t above last week’s closing prices, and in doing so set a record high for the market. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures climbed up by over 30% to their highest figure for 14 years, although remained below the all-time highest figure of $13.49/t which was set in February 2008. Frontier farm trader, Ollie Wilson covers this and more, including the latest market news for barley, oilseed rape, pulses and fertiliser.

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Frontrunner - 25th February 2022

Fri, 25 Feb 2022 16:08:52 GMT

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine this week triggered unparalleled price movements in commodity markets. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures posted gains of almost 20% on last Friday’s close and, at their peak, were at their highest level since 2008. Fear, panic and speculative trade exaggerated futures price gains but the world’s wheat importers have lost access to a primary supplier of wheat and corn as military action brought a halt to commercial shipping and Ukraine’s ports shut down. Egypt’s General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) held a tender to buy wheat on Thursday which highlighted the market chaos and uncertainty. There was only one offer from French exporters at a price including freight just below $450/t. Egypt has sourced most of its wheat this season from Russia and Ukraine and bought 180,000 tonnes last week from Romania at less than $340/t. Other major wheat importers tried to maintain some calm by assessing their stocks and supply chain options. Iraq has said it currently has sufficient strategic wheat supplies and Tunisia has said it has already secured the imports it needs until the 2022 harvest. Ukraine is thought to have shipped almost 18 million tonnes from its 24.5-million-tonne surplus this season, but it seems highly unlikely that the remaining balance will be accessible in the short term. Russian officials said their ports were operating normally but how sanctions might impact on the Russian wheat export programme remains unclear.

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Frontrunner - 18th February 2022

Fri, 18 Feb 2022 14:30:04 GMT

World wheat markets have seen less volatile trading than they have over the past three to four weeks, but prices continue to be underpinned by the worsening situation in Ukraine. US President Biden said on Thursday that there was now every indication that Russia was planning to invade Ukraine in the next few days. Should this be the case, it seems likely there would be interruptions to wheat exports from the Black Sea region, which is a serious concern considering that Russia, Ukraine and Romania continue to dominate international tenders. This week, Algeria’s State grains agency (Office Algerien Interprofessionnel des Cereales), known internationally as the OAIC, is thought to have bought as much as 720,000 tonnes through this week’s tender process with offers from several origins including the Black Sea, Argentina and its traditional primary supplier, France. Romania is thought to be the most likely origin given the competitiveness of its pricing. Romania also took the honours in capturing all the sales to Egypt in its tender this week. The General Authority for Supply Commodities (GASC) was spoilt by a long list of offers also including Russia, Ukraine and France and confirmed a purchase of 180,000 tonnes. The selling price, at an average of $338.50/t including freight for April delivery, is about $10/t below its previous purchase at the end of January. Romania, benefitting from ideal weather during the growing cycle, had a record-yielding 2021 wheat crop at 10.4 million tonnes, which was up by over four million tonnes on the previous year.

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Frontrunner - 11th February 2022

Fri, 11 Feb 2022 16:34:49 GMT

The threat of conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to generate price volatility in world wheat markets. The week started with an optimistic view from traders that a diplomatic solution to the tensions could be found following a seemingly successful meeting between French president Emmanuel Macron and Russian president Vladimir Putin. This triggered a bout of selling on futures markets on Tuesday. However, later in the week, military exercises between Russia and Belarus led Ukraine to state its ports had been blocked by Russian navy activity, which halted commercial shipping operations. Speculative trading and panic buying took wheat futures sharply up to their highest prices in over two weeks. Following this period of panic, calm prevailed and most of the futures price gains were lost, highlighting how sensitive a matter this potential conflict is for grain markets.

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Frontrunner - 4th February 2022

Fri, 04 Feb 2022 16:54:22 GMT

Following last week’s notable volatility, wheat markets started this week making sharp loses and struggled to find any form of recovery. The threat of conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains and, should this be realised, wheat futures prices would rally again. Speculative longs have, however, been encouraged by progress with diplomatic solutions, with many having subsequently taken the exit, bringing futures prices down in the process.

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Frontrunner - 28th January 2022

Fri, 28 Jan 2022 16:14:59 GMT

The world’s wheat markets have seen significant price volatility this week. Fuelled by news reports of increased tension between Russia and the Ukraine, short covering and speculative buying extended gains on Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures by 6% by the close of Tuesday and took the market to its highest level since the end of November last year.

Subsequent diplomatic efforts gave markets confidence a solution to the tensions between Russia and the west might be found, easing speculation of any incursions into Ukraine. With hopes that trade flows and wheat shipments from Russia and Ukraine would continue uninterrupted, wheat futures markets saw heavy selling and, by close of play on Thursday, all the week’s gains had been lost.

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Frontrunner - 21st January 2022

Fri, 21 Jan 2022 15:23:13 GMT

World wheat markets rallied sharply this week, reacting to mainstream media reports of increasing tension between Russia and the Ukraine. This was highlighted by Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures which gained over 7% and, in doing so, recaptured all the losses they had made so far in 2022.

The short covering and speculative buying are understandable given the potential disruption to international trade should conflict develop. Russia is the world’s primary wheat exporter with as much as ten million tonnes from its estimated 35-million-tonne surplus left to ship this season. Ukraine, the fourth-largest wheat exporter, has eight million tonnes from its 24.5-million-tonne surplus to ship. Together, the two countries account for almost 30% of the world’s wheat export trade. Ukraine is also expected to ship up to 33.5 million tonnes of corn this season.

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Frontrunner - 14th January 2022

Fri, 14 Jan 2022 16:05:37 GMT

World wheat prices have fallen again this week, which was highlighted by London wheat futures. This extended losses to the lowest level since the middle of last October. Paris wheat futures have led the way down with increasing concerns that the EU export pace is falling behind where it needs to be to meet export estimates. Brussels updated its weekly EU wheat export data, which included French data that was previously lacking. Shipments to 9th January 2022 rose to 15.1 million tonnes, up by 1.1 million tonnes on the week. However, this is less than half the surplus gone with less than half the season left to clear the surplus wheat. Shipments last season at the same time were 14.8 million tonnes from a total available surplus of 27.5 million tonnes. Analyst, Strategie Grains cut its EU wheat export estimate by 300,000 down to 31.2 million tonnes. This was due to strong competition from Argentina and the Black Sea opposing the traditional EU market. It was thought French wheat might be excluded from an Algerian wheat tender held this week.

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Frontrunner - 7th January 2022

Fri, 07 Jan 2022 17:15:20 GMT

Wheat markets made an uncertain start to 2022 but after some early small gains, trade futures prices posted some notable losses. This week, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat prices fell to their lowest since mid-October and were followed by the Paris and London futures markets. Strong price support had been expected to continue to come from the world’s major wheat importers – including Egypt, China and Algeria - as it had done throughout December. However, such support was found lacking this week.

This lack of buying was highlighted by very poor weekly US wheat sales data which showed just 48,600 tonnes sold for the current season; traders had been expecting between 150,000-400,000 tonnes to be sold. New crop sales were just 2,500 tonnes. Overall, just over two-thirds of the US wheat export estimate has been sold compared to the 75% average for this period.

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Frontrunner - 17th December 2021

Fri, 17 Dec 2021 15:51:37 GMT

Wheat futures markets fell heavily mid-week, losing almost 4% of their value. A number of changing elements led to this long liquidation resulting in the loss of all the gains made last month and the new record high prices. The fast-spreading Omicron variant of Covid-19 presents a host of uncertainties but will almost certainly result in lower demand as the hospitality trade once again has to manage lost business. However, there are changing fundamentals that point towards a more relaxed world wheat balance sheet with an increased supply from some of the world’s major wheat exporters. The Southern Hemisphere wheat producers, Australia and Argentina, will harvest record wheat crops with estimates for Argentina exceeding 22 million tonnes as its harvest reaches 65% complete. This compares with just 17.65 million tonnes harvested last year. This week, Algeria bought 700,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat which excluded its traditional wheat supplier France and added weight to the selling pressure for Paris wheat futures. The tender results included Argentina, which highlights the competitiveness of Southern Hemisphere wheat for the second half of the season.

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Frontrunner - 10th December 2021

Fri, 10 Dec 2021 16:51:22 GMT

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Thursday, presenting a bearish set of wheat data. World production is seen 2.61 million tonnes higher than last month at 777.89 million tonnes. Overall, wheat supplies are seen up 4.3 million tonnes with increased carry in from last season. Production volumes reflect recent official revised estimates which have seen many increases since figures were previously released. The estimate for Australia is up to 34 million tonnes from 31.5 million tonnes, for Canada it is up to 21.65 from 21 million tonnes and for Russia it is up to 75.5 million tonnes from 74.5 million tonnes. Increases in world consumption are just short of two million tonnes higher at 789.35 million tonnes, leaving stocks ahead of the trade expectation of 278.18 million tonnes and 2.38 million tonnes up on last month.

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Frontrunner - 3rd December 2021

Fri, 03 Dec 2021 15:54:42 GMT

Wheat markets have endured a volatile week of trading, as traders and speculators reacted to the uncertainty of the latest Covid-19 variant Omicron and what it might bring. Having peaked at nine-year highs last week, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures lost over 10% of their value by close of business on Tuesday. This was due to a wave of panic selling, which caused prices to tumble. European wheat futures made similar losses from their record highs last week.

However, the tight world wheat balance sheet and the availability of milling wheat from the world’s major wheat exporters remain a concern. The lower wheat prices led to several of the world’s major importers issuing fresh wheat tenders, the most significant of those from Egypt. Egypt bought 600,000 tonnes, including 240,000 tonnes from Russia and 240,000 tonnes from Romania. The final 120,000 tonnes it purchased from Ukraine. Prices ranged from $376-379/t including freight for January delivery and, on average, represented a $6/t increase in price over the solitary cargo Egypt bought from Romania on the 17th November.

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Frontrunner - 26th November 2021

Fri, 26 Nov 2021 16:56:35 GMT

European wheat futures rallied further this week, striking new record-high levels as bullish drivers continue to influence markets. Adverse wet weather across east and southeast Australia has proved damaging for wheat crops with reports of sprouted grains and quality wheat consigned to the feed bin. The world’s major milling wheat importers were hoping that the arrival of a predicted bumper crop in Australia would ease the tight supply of quality wheat and cap record prices but that may no longer be the case.

In New South Wales, where harvest was expected to achieve up to 11 million tonnes, reports suggest that between 50-75% of the crop could be damaged. Better-than-expected yields were reported in Western Australia but managing lower-than-usual proteins is a further complication for exporters to manage.

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Frontrunner - 19th November 2021

Fri, 19 Nov 2021 16:30:34 GMT

European wheat futures struck new record highs in volatile trading this week. Markets continued to rise, reacting to further notable purchases from some of the world’s major wheat importers while being mindful of the likelihood of further export restrictions for Russia, the world’s primary wheat exporter. Algeria weighed in with a chunky purchase, thought to be up to 800,000 tonnes, having to pay up to $384/t including freight for shipment mid-December to the end of January. The country relaxed its bug damage specification, now allowing for up to 1% presence, which enables the country to source 250,000 tonnes of this total from Russia. It has the option to source the remainder from a range of origins as wide apart as Poland and Argentina.

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Frontrunner - 12th November 2021

Fri, 12 Nov 2021 16:20:45 GMT

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its November World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimate (WASDE) report early this week, bringing an end to a short spell of declining prices. A revised estimate for world wheat stocks was released, which was below average trade estimates. The USDA cut world wheat stocks from 277.18 million tonnes to 275.80 million tonnes. This revision changed the negative market sentiment. The profit-taking that was seen from the middle of last week reverted to bullish enthusiasm.

Overall, changes for the wheat balance sheet were modest and few but worth noting. The USDA reflected increasing import needs and revised its exports estimate upwards to 203.16 million tonnes from a previous figure of 199.63 million tonnes. The increase in the exports total was aided by an additional one million tonnes exported from Russia, from 35 million tonnes to 36 million tonnes. However, this is in contrast to the figures released by Russian analyst group SovEcon, which has cut its own Russian wheat export estimate to 34 million tonnes to account for the impact of export taxes.

SovEcon noted more demand from the EU, increasing its European demand estimate from 35.5 million tonnes to 36.5 million tonnes. This is well ahead of other estimates and leaves an untenable ending stock which is too low to meet domestic demand strategic needs.

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Frontrunner - 5th November 2021

Fri, 05 Nov 2021 16:02:57 GMT

Wheat markets have continued to go from strength to strength. Future markets have moved sharply higher, with price gains of over 25% since early September. This rise has been driven by wheat production losses for major exporters Canada, US and Russia and by a loss of French quality amidst strengthening demand.

Official EU wheat export data is not fully accounting for all shipments, but private estimates suggest that the EU will have breached 11 million tonnes by the end of October. Ukraine has exported 12.4 million tonnes of wheat in the first four months of the season, which is half the country’s annual quota. Despite prevailing high prices, there is no evidence of slowing international wheat demand.

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Frontrunner - 29th October 2021

Fri, 29 Oct 2021 15:17:49 GMT

Wheat futures prices soared again this week, striking new contract highs. This is another record on the back of multi-year highs, driven currently by strong export demand and concerns for tightening world supplies. The Paris wheat market reached its highest level since March 2008 following the release of the EU weekly export data which shows exports have now reached 8.99 million tonnes. Official data for France dating back to July remains incomplete showing just 753,000 tonnes shipped. However, unofficial vessel counts suggest that almost 2.6 million tonnes have been loaded, which would take the total EU shipments to an unsustainable 11 million tonnes.

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Frontrunner - 22nd October 2021

Fri, 22 Oct 2021 14:58:22 GMT

China is the largest wheat producing country and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates the country’s total production this season will reach 136.9 million tonnes. However, Chinese government officials said this week that persistent heavy rain impacting the main wheat producing areas across the country has left planting at only 26% complete so far. This is 27 points below the normal pace. Nevertheless, the State Council of the People’s Republic of China said authorities would work to ensure a bumper harvest next summer. Annual wheat consumption this season is expected to be up to 149 million tonnes which highlights the need for successful harvests. Wheat stocks at the end of this season are expected to fall three million tonnes on the year to a total of 141 million tonnes. This equates to just over half the world total, despite ten million tonnes of it being imported.

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Frontrunner - 15th October 2021

Fri, 15 Oct 2021 15:09:17 GMT

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) updated markets with the release of its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report this week, presenting bullish data that further underpins the strong prevailing prices. Traders expected to see cuts for Canadian wheat output in line with updates from local analysts. Prolonged spells of heat and dryness have been significantly damaging to the Canadian crop and the USDA now sees the crop total down to 21 million tonnes. This is down two million tonnes on last month and 14 million tonnes down on last year. The US wheat production estimate was lowered by 1.4 million tonnes in line with yield adjustments published on 30th September.

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Frontrunner - 8th October 2021

Fri, 08 Oct 2021 15:23:08 GMT

Wheat markets continued to rise this week, supported by strong export trade and uncertainty over Russian wheat export capability. Paris wheat futures have set new contract highs, gaining over 10% in value since the 20th September. So far this season, from 1st July to 4th October, Brussel’s trade data showed the EU had shipped just over eight million tonnes of wheat. This was up by one million tonnes on the week and unofficial vessel counts suggests this is still significantly understated. In the same period last year, just 5.5 million tonnes had been shipped - albeit from a smaller surplus. Analyst group Strategie Grains estimates the EU will have 31 million tonnes available to export this season, which would leave end of season stocks at minimum levels. Therefore, the current pace is not sustainable and the rising prices need to choke off demand. Romania is the EU’s leading wheat exporter, having now shipped 2.9 million tonnes from its record 11.4 million-tonne crop. At this time last season, had shipped less than 800,000 tonnes.

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Frontrunner - 1st October 2021

Fri, 01 Oct 2021 14:11:26 GMT

Paris and London wheat futures rallied to new contract highs this week, the jump in prices triggered by bullish wheat stocks and production data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). US wheat stocks estimates for the 1st September 2021 have been set at 1.78 billion bushels - 70 million bushels below average trade estimates and the lowest since 2007. The USDA also cut its 2021 US wheat production estimate by 50 million bushels from its previous estimate, down to a new total of 1.646 billion bushels. This is the equivalent of 44.79 million tonnes and, if realised, will be the smallest US wheat crop for 19 years.

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Frontrunner - 24th September 2021

Fri, 24 Sep 2021 16:38:17 GMT

London wheat futures prices gained 3.5% from their low on Monday and came within £4/t of the contract high which was achieved in the middle of August. Following higher world market prices, there seemed no clear catalyst for the sharp price rise, but the latest export data from the EU and US was supportive.

Last week, analyst group Stratégie Grains cut its EU wheat export availability estimate by 1.7 million tonnes down to a new estimate of 31 million tonnes. This is as a result of a lower EU wheat production estimate; Stratégie Grains has reduced this figure by 2.4 million tonnes to a new estimate of 129.1 million tonnes. The latest EU export data shows that over 6.5 million tonnes has now been shipped this season, which is two million tonnes ahead of this time last season.

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Frontrunner - 17th September 2021

Fri, 17 Sep 2021 15:52:27 GMT

Late last Friday the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report; much in line with traders’ expectations it produced neutral to bearish data. World wheat production is seen rising 3.7 million tonnes up to 780 million tonnes, with Australia up 1.5 million tonnes to 31.5 million tonnes and India up 1.52 million tonnes to 109.52 million tonnes. These increases in production estimates are offset by a one million tonne reduction in the Canadian estimate, which is now 23 million tonnes and a reduction in the Argentinian estimate of 500,000 tonnes to a new total of 20 million tonnes. A notable change was that world consumption last season was down four million tonnes, which increases the carry over to this season by the same amount; carry over stocks now sit at 292.46 million tonnes. 2021/22 year end stocks were increased by four million tonnes to 283.22 million tonnes in the August report, but stocks are still seen falling by nine million tonnes on the year. Almost half of global stock - 141 million tonnes - is in China.

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Frontrunner - 10th September 2021

Fri, 10 Sep 2021 16:11:09 GMT

FranceAgriMer updated its French wheat crop data this week with changes that highlighted the poor quality of its crop. Domestic and export milling specifications demand that grain specific weight meets at least 76kgs but only 30% of the crop is estimated to have reached that standard. Such poor French wheat crop quality is unusual; last season over 98% of France’s crop met the minimum 76kgs standard. The Hagberg falling number (HFN) is also an issue, with only 67% meeting the minimum 220 specification.

With up to 70% of French wheat only at feed standard, traditional UK feed wheat export homes will be extremely competitive. This likelihood has contributed to the additional negativity seen in UK wheat futures this week.

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Frontrunner - 3rd September 2021

Fri, 03 Sep 2021 14:16:38 GMT

Earlier this week Statistics Canada (StatsCan) updated its country’s wheat crop estimate, now seeing the crop falling to 22.95 million tonnes. This compares to 35.18 million tonnes last year and, if realised, will be Canada’s smallest crop for 14 years. Persistent excessive heat and dryness for much of the growing season has slashed yield potential for Canada; one of the world’s major wheat exporters.

In its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its Canadian wheat estimate to 24 million tonnes from 31.5 million tonnes in July. Last season, Canada exported 27.5 million tonnes of wheat and ranked third in wheat volumes shipped, behind Russia and the EU and just ahead of the US. This season’s crop losses will have a major impact on world wheat trade flows and has been one of the primary bullish price drivers for wheat markets. US spring wheat futures are 60% up on the year as a result of tightening quality wheat supplies.

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Frontrunner - 27th August 2021

Fri, 27 Aug 2021 15:13:29 GMT

In contrast to UK feed wheat futures, the Paris futures market has a milling standard specification. Under normal circumstances traders may elect to deliver physical wheat against their futures sales at harvest or buy futures as a hedge against milling wheat export sales they make. However, the adverse French weather and delayed harvesting has seen lower than average specific weights, particularly in northern France, and has left traders unable to source wheat of a sufficient standard to meet the specification required for export (78kgs) or the specification required for futures wheat (76kgs).

This has forced traders with short futures positions to buy back their contracts rather than deliver physical wheat. Last week, this resulted in the nearby September position hitting a €30/t premium to the next December position and saw prices rise to their highest level since 2013.

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Frontrunner - 20th August 2021

Fri, 20 Aug 2021 14:35:09 GMT

In its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, the United States Department of Agriculture surprised markets last week with larger-than-expected production cuts for some of the world's major wheat and corn producers. After the report was released, strong wheat futures surged a further 5% to multi-year highs. However, fresh selling and speculators banking profits gathered pace throughout this week and wiped out the short-lived spike in prices.

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Frontrunner - 13th August 2021

Fri, 13 Aug 2021 16:21:43 GMT

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its August World Agricultural Supply and Demands Estimates (WASDE) report on Thursday and presented some bullish surprises. Futures markets reacted with notable gains and US, Paris and London wheat futures all rallied to set new contract highs.

Having taken an overly conservative view of potential crop losses in its July estimates, this time the USDA made some aggressive production cuts. This was particularly the case for Russia where the USDA estimates the wheat crop will be as low as 72.5 million tonnes. This compares with its July estimate of 85 million tonnes. Earlier this week, the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) lowered its production estimate to 77 million tonnes, reflecting poorer than expected yields.

Notable production losses are also seen as a result of the drought that has ravaged Canada; the USDA sees Canadian production falling to 24 million tonnes, compared to its previous July estimate of 31.5 million tonnes. In contrast, both Ukraine and Australia are seen producing larger crops than estimated in July at 33 million tonnes (up 3 million tonnes) and 30 million tonnes (up 1.5 million tonnes) respectively.

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Frontrunner - 6th August 2021

Fri, 06 Aug 2021 15:40:47 GMT

This week, the UK’s oilseed rape harvest has continued making progress further up the country where weather has allowed. As mentioned last week, yield reports seem to be improving as harvest makes its way north. An increase on the widely estimated 3.3t/ha may well be seen before harvest with numbers as high as 5t/ha being reported in the Lincolnshire area.

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Frontrunner - 30th July 2021

Fri, 30 Jul 2021 15:08:50 GMT

Wheat long-holders in many areas can still achieve attractive premiums for old crop wheat as the market scrambles to find stocks to service late-season demand. In Scotland and the North of England particularly, wheat prices that are £30-40/t above harvest levels should encourage most sheds to be emptied as the country enters a new crop year with bare boards and minimal carryover. As wheat harvest started in the south this week, most merchants and consumers will breathe a sigh of relief as we come to the end of one of the smallest UK crop years in recent history.

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Frontrunner - 23rd July 2021

Fri, 23 Jul 2021 15:42:40 GMT

Persistent hot and dry weather continues to damage spring wheat crops in the northern US states, particularly North Dakota and Minnesota. Weekly crop condition ratings slipped to 11% rated ‘good to excellent’, which is just one point above the worst condition rating on record in 1988. The area rated ‘poor to very poor’ increased on the week to 63% from 55% and this data propelled US spring wheat futures to new contract highs - their highest level since November 2012. The weather forecast signals little relief for parched crops and similar problems persist in the Canadian prairies. In its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its Canadian wheat crop estimate by just 500,000 tonnes to a new figure of 31.5 million tonnes, which compares to 35.18 million tonnes produced in the previous season. However, some see Canada producing as little as 25 million tonnes, an estimate which tightens global supply of high-quality bread making wheat.

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Frontrunner - 16th July 2021

Fri, 16 Jul 2021 15:54:44 GMT

US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures rallied sharply this week, gaining 10% in value from last week’s three-month lows.

Persistent hot and dry weather conditions across US and Canadian spring wheat production areas look set to continue into next week and will prove further damaging for yield potential. Minneapolis spring wheat futures rose above $9/bu which is their highest since December 2012. The fast rise in spring wheat futures prices has significantly extended its premium to CBOT soft red winter (SRW) wheat futures above $2.20. In early April it was little more than 30 cents.

Monday’s US spring wheat progress report saw only 16% of the crop as good to excellent. Although this was unchanged on the week, it also saw the poor to very poor rating increase five points to 55%. On Monday, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its US spring crop estimate by 41% on last year and cut total 2021 US wheat production by four million tonnes from its June estimate to 47.52 million tonnes, which is two million tonnes below last year.

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Frontrunner - 9th July 2021

Fri, 09 Jul 2021 15:23:25 GMT

Wheat markets have stepped lower this week again, strongly influenced by the fortunes for US corn. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) markets were closed on Monday for Independence Day but most of last week’s sharp price rally was lost on Tuesday following the long US weekend. CBOT corn opened 40 cents down but losses over the week amounted to 10% as US weather changed to cooler and wetter conditions. This was deemed ideal for developing corn plants as they head towards their pollination period.

Speculative funds have been heavy sellers, reducing their long positions and taking corn futures 10% below last Friday’s close through the week. It was not all negative news for corn, with analysts making further cuts to the Brazilian corn crop. Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) dropped its estimate by three million tonnes from its previous figure to a new estimate of 93.385 million tonnes. It is anticipated that the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will publish a similar number on Monday in its July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report, down from its previous figure of 98.5 million tonnes.

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Frontrunner - 2nd July 2021

Fri, 02 Jul 2021 15:10:18 GMT

In recent weeks, analysts have been increasing their wheat production estimates for major exporters Russia, Ukraine and the EU-27. This has left a negative tone and seen world prices continually ease during June. This change has been highlighted by London wheat futures which lost £14/t during the month. However, the primary negative price driver has been expectations for a notably higher 2021-22 US corn crop than previously anticipated. Since March, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has estimated the US corn planted area to be just 350,000 acres larger than last year at 91.1 million acres. In contrast, high prices and ideal drilling conditions have led some analysts to estimate an area of more than 96 million acres. This week the USDA updated its estimates and fearing a notable increase in predictions, speculative funds reduced their long positions, adding to price pressure. Average trade wheat area estimates were just below 93.8 million acres, but the USDA surprised the markets with an estimate of 92.7 million acres, which is 1.1 million acres below this average prediction. The market’s reaction was sharp. From the week’s low, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn prices gained 14% and reported the biggest weekly corn price gain since 2011. Despite the USDA predicting a larger wheat area than previously thought, world wheat prices followed corn higher. London wheat futures regained half their June losses.

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Frontrunner - 25th June 2021

Fri, 25 Jun 2021 14:47:34 GMT

Wheat futures have slipped lower this week. London November 2021 wheat futures closed below £170/t for the first time since mid-April. Grain markets have been pressured by wetter and cooler weather across the primary US corn producing states, which are conditions that are ideal for the pollination period and signal improved yield potential.

Speculative funds have been active sellers, reducing their long corn futures positions, which has also helped to lower wheat prices. The US winter wheat harvest advanced rapidly, up 13 points on the week, and is now around 17% complete, which is adding some harvest price pressure. In contrast, the northern US states have stayed mostly dry and expanding drought is proving increasingly damaging for spring wheat crops.

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Frontrunner - 18th June 2021

Fri, 18 Jun 2021 14:53:52 GMT

Wheat prices have fallen sharply in recent days and London wheat futures have lost more than £10/t from their highs early last week. The fall has been driven by the US agriculture market, particularly by US corn, which has lost over 12% of its value this week.

A host of bearish features have combined to galvanise the aggressive speculative fund sell off. A change in weather prospects is one of the main drivers for lower US corn and wheat markets with cooler and wetter conditions now arriving and expected to benefit spring drilled crops. US markets were also pressured by speculation that the Biden Administration might allow a reduced blending of corn ethanol into fossil fuels as blenders come under severe financial pressure to meet their mandates.

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Frontrunner - 11th June 2021

Fri, 11 Jun 2021 15:01:33 GMT

The week began with markets on an upward trajectory. Weather is hot and dry in Northern USA, Canada and throughout Europe. Any rain we might see is likely to be confined to the Black Sea region. Despite the dryness, the EU wheat crop should achieve a good volume. However, it will not be an early harvest this season, which raises concerns over quality and, subsequently, prices are generally supported.

On Tuesday, Algeria purchased 450,000 tonnes of wheat for August delivery, most likely originating from France, Germany and the Baltics. Despite this tender, inflated freight rates and current spreads make France one of the more expensive origins currently, so some price correction could be seen if French wheat is to compete in the export arena going forward.

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Frontrunner - 4th June 2021

Fri, 04 Jun 2021 15:32:56 GMT

Price volatility for the world’s wheat markets continued this week. After initially making a sharp recovery following last week’s slump, ultimately wheat markets failed to hold onto their gains. This was highlighted by London wheat futures, which increased by £8/t at their peak midweek before subsequently losing two-thirds of that rally.

Contrasting fortunes for potential wheat yields across the Northern Hemisphere are contributing to this choppy trade. Much of Europe, the Black Sea and central and southern US producers look set for promising crops. In contrast, much of the northern US and the primary spring wheat producing states, North and South Dakota, are gripped by extreme drought with weather primarily forecast to continue to be hot and dry. The US spring wheat condition dropped two points on the week to just 43% rated ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ compared to 80% which achieved this rating last year. This crop has the worst condition index since 1988.

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Frontrunner - 28th May 2021

Fri, 28 May 2021 15:40:36 GMT

US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat and corn futures have been particularly volatile this week. Spring planting has advanced at a fast rate which has encouraged notable long liquidation from market speculators. Spring wheat planting reached 94% complete, which is well ahead of the 85% average for this time of year. Meanwhile, corn planting advanced to 90% complete compared with the 80% average.

Some analysts predict that US farmers will expand their corn planted area to over 96 million acres, which is well ahead of the prediction of 91.1 million acres from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. The pace of planting and historically high prices support the higher estimate.

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Frontrunner - 21st May 2021

Fri, 21 May 2021 15:02:53 GMT

World wheat markets have fallen again this week as a result of the pressure of improving production potential for some of the world’s primary exporters. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat prices are now 10% below their end-of-April high and London wheat futures hit a low at £21.50/t beneath their recent peak.

Conversely, US winter wheat prospects look particularly upbeat following this week’s annual Kansas crop tour. Yields for the south west of the state are seen at 56.7bu/a, which is significantly higher than the five-year average of 42.7bu/a. There were similar results from northern Kansas, which is the primary US winter wheat producing state; it is set for a crop with a record yield.

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Frontrunner - 14th May 2021

Fri, 14 May 2021 16:08:29 GMT

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report this week, updating its current season balance sheets and its first estimates for next season. The markets were particularly keen to see how the USDA would assess corn production prospects for Brazil.

Late drilled crops are now suffering from an almost complete lack of rain, low soil moistures and rising temperatures. Despite the planting difficulties and obvious adverse weather, the USDA has previously failed to make changes to its crop estimate. However, this time it has made a notable cut of seven million tonnes, now reducing its wheat crop estimate to 102 million tonnes.

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Frontrunner - 7th May 2021

Fri, 07 May 2021 14:33:46 GMT

Persistent dryness across many of the primary corn growing regions of Brazil is continuing to stress late drilled corn crops and impact their yield potential. In April, the estimate from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) for the Brazilian corn crop was at 109 million tonnes, but analysts see the lack of rain taking at least nine million tonnes from that crop potential. If the dryness continues, there are concerns that the crop could fall to as little as 90 million tonnes. These significant losses amidst increasing Chinese buying will push additional demand to US supplies, with the US exportable surplus already sold out. This has encouraged increased speculative buying and seen Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures rise by over 40% since the end of March. CBOT corn futures have risen to their highest level in eight years and for the first time since July 2013, the near contract position has overtaken wheat.

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Frontrunner - 30th April 2021

Fri, 30 Apr 2021 15:01:43 GMT

Wheat and corn futures continued to drive higher earlier this week, setting new contract highs. US markets reached their highest level for eight years and Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures pushed above $7/bu – a level double their contract low. New crop London wheat futures at their highest had risen over this month by an impressive £35/t. Higher European futures markets reflected concerns for both winter and spring crops following the prolonged period of dry weather and, in places, record low April temperatures impacting on most of northern Europe. However, with strong speculative buying, futures markets had become technically overbought and were overdue a correction. Forecasts for much needed rain seemed to be the trigger for a wave of profit-taking which drove markets sharply lower during the second half of the week. Upbeat wheat production prospects for Romania were another negative element. Romania’s enthusiasm to sell new crop wheat was highlighted in the tender held by Egypt this week.

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Frontrunner - 23rd April 2021

Fri, 23 Apr 2021 14:34:08 GMT

Persistent cold dry weather affecting much of the US and Western Europe coupled with ongoing Chinese demand drove wheat and corn markets sharply higher this week. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures have gained over 8% since last Friday’s close and are trading over $7 per bushel, bringing them to their highest level since May 2014. European new crop wheat futures have been equally impressive, setting new contract highs. London November 2021 wheat futures are now £26/t above their end of March low.

US winter wheat crop ratings were unchanged on the week with 53% rated ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ which is four points below last year. However, subsequent reports from Oklahoma of frost-damaged winter wheat helped galvanise speculative buying. Corn planting reached 8%, which is average for this time of year, but the cold US weather conditions are seen delaying crop establishment and yield potential, therefore adding more demand for depleted old crop supplies. Record low April temperatures coupled with a lack of rain is increasingly concerning for wheat crop production potential in Western Europe.

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Frontrunner - 16th April 2021

Fri, 16 Apr 2021 14:35:25 GMT

Wheat markets continued to rise this week, reacting to increasing concerns for wheat crops as dry and very cold weather persists in Western Europe and parts of the US. The latest US drought monitor maps show an increasing area of extreme drought now impacting on over three-quarters of major spring wheat state, North Dakota. However, spring wheat drilling in the state achieved 8% completion by 11th April compared to the 2% average for this time of year. Nationally, spring drilling is 11% complete compared to the 6% average.

Dry cold conditions remain in the forecast and US spring wheat futures rallied to new contract highs this week. In contrast, the central southern plains are due rain which will benefit winter crops. The condition of winter wheat crops remains unchanged at 53% rated ‘good’ to ‘excellent’. Record low April temperatures have been prevalent in France and the UK. How damaging this has been for cereal crops remains to be seen. With more dry weather forecast for Western Europe, new crop wheat futures rallied to new contract highs. London new crop wheat futures have added a significant £15/t to their values since their lowest point in March, bringing them now to their highest values this season.

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Frontrunner - 1st April 2021

Thu, 01 Apr 2021 14:46:14 GMT

On Wednesday 31ST March, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its quarterly US stock and acreage report. It contained bullish data for corn that triggered a sharp price rally for Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures, sending them to new contract highs; the highest level seen since 2013. Despite the report having bearish wheat data, wheat futures followed corn futures higher, ending the recent slide in prices that had dropped to a three-month low prior to the report.

In recent weeks, analysts have been very upbeat about US famers reacting to high corn prices and significantly increasing the corn area they plant this spring. Estimates have been as high as 94 million acres compared to 90.8 million acres last year. At its Outlook Forum in February, the USDA saw US farmers planting 92 million acres of corn. Average trade guesses before the report were 93.28 million acres. However, in the report, the USDA has revised its estimate with only a small increase on the year, bringing the new predicted acreage to 91.144 million acres. Using trend line yield data, this would leave 2021 US production short of expected domestic and export demand, cutting stocks and leaving a bullish outlook. US quarterly corn stocks estimates were also bullish, seen at 7.701 billion bushels, which is below average trade guesses and down 3% on the year.

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Frontrunner - 26th March 2021

Fri, 26 Mar 2021 15:18:15 GMT

World wheat markets have fallen again this week and have now effectively lost all the price gains they made in 2021. London wheat futures fell to their lowest level since the 17th December. In January, fears that Russia would close the door on wheat exports saw Black Sea export prices soar to £300/t free on board (FOB), before including freight costs. Buyers are now harder to find and traders’ offers were reported to have fallen to $250/t searching for demand. Prices have fallen sharply despite strong exports to date for the world’s major producers. Weekly wheat export sales for the US were 344,000 tonnes, taking the season’s total sold to almost 93% of the surplus estimated by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which is just ahead of average at this time of year.

From this point, sales only need to average 80,000 tonnes per week to hit the estimate. US weekly corn sales included the 3.8 million tonnes that China bought last week, bringing the total sold to just over 4.6 million tonnes. Over 98% of the USDA’s estimated surplus is sold, which is 25 points on the average at this time. If just 1% of last week’s sales are made each week to the end of the season, the USDA target will be exceeded.

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Frontrunner - 19th March 2021

Fri, 19 Mar 2021 16:47:39 GMT

Please note, in this audio report China was reported to have purchased three million tonnes of US supplies during the week commencing the 15th March 2021. Following the release of this recording, China purchased a further 800,000 tonnes.

World wheat markets have slipped 2-3% lower this week following better than expected wheat crop estimates from analysts for many of the world’s primary wheat exporters: the US, Russia, Ukraine, and the EU.

Much of the US wheat belt has stayed dry for several months but recent snow and rain has proved beneficial. Weekly crop ratings were ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ for both Oklahoma and Kansas which were up four points to 57% and two points to 38% respectively. More rain is due with significant storms forecast to arrive.

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Frontrunner - 12th March 2021

Fri, 12 Mar 2021 16:13:58 GMT

Earlier this week, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. Speculative traders holding significant long positions in US grain futures were hoping for a helping hand to support their bullish view but were left disappointed.

It was expected that the USDA would lower its corn production estimates for Argentina and Brazil following dry weather in Argentina and excessive rainfall in Brazil. The wet conditions in Brazil have delayed soybean harvest and consequently delayed planting corn crops at the optimum time. However, the USDA made no changes to these estimates.

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Frontrunner - 5th March 2021

Fri, 05 Mar 2021 16:26:07 GMT

World wheat markets have slipped this week. A lack of fresh bullish features has led to spells of profit taking from speculative buyers who still carry significant long positions in grain futures markets. US weekly wheat export shipments and sales were particularly disappointing. However, the weekly export pace from the EU was far more encouraging. Wheat shipments for last week were one million tonnes, taking the total now shipped to over 17.5 million tonnes.

Analysts estimate the EU, including the UK, will ship just over 26 million tonnes. This will leave end June stocks extremely tight at around ten million tonnes. Last season from the beginning of March to the end of June, the EU shipped over 13 million tonnes during a period when there were no Russian export taxes and therefore stronger competition. However, this week, the world’s major importers, Egypt, Algeria and Saudi Arabia, have again been absent from the market, leading to concerns for export demand for the remainder of the season and adding to market weakness. Remaining old crop supplies may be tight but carry a $40-50/t price premium to new crop. Perhaps importers will target cheaper new crop supplies if they have sufficient stocks to wait until they are available.

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Frontrunner - 26th February 2021

Fri, 26 Feb 2021 15:59:59 GMT

The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) updated estimates for the current season's UK wheat balance sheet this week, highlighting a huge two-million-tonne cut in domestic wheat consumption. Demand in the human and industrial sectors is now seen at 6.438 million tonnes; almost half a million tonnes lower than last season.

This is primarily due to loss of demand for biofuel and starch following the closure of the Roquette plant in Corby in December. Miller demand is also lower as a result of the impact of the coronavirus and subsequent lockdowns.

The biggest drop in wheat use, however, is within the animal feed sector where year-on-year demand will be over 1.5 million tonnes lower. Feed barley has been heavily discounted to wheat by as much as £50/t, resulting in wheat being displaced in the feed ration. Wheat imports are seen doubling on the year to 2.1 million tonnes, but the small 2020 wheat harvest - just 9.658 million tonnes - leaves total supply five million tonnes down on the year. This also results in an exceptionally tight supply situation ahead of the 2021 wheat harvest. Old crop wheat prices look set to continue to reflect import costs.

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Frontrunner - 19th February 2021

Fri, 19 Feb 2021 15:25:16 GMT

A period of extreme cold has affected the primary US winter wheat producing states in recent days. Temperatures nearing record lows of between -15-20°c have been recorded as far south as Texas and concerns that wheat crops will be subject to winter kill has triggered volatile trading in Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures. Prices rallied to their highest since the end of January as the chief meteorologist of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) suggested crops in Texas and Oklahoma had been lost to the severe cold.

This week at its Annual Outlook Forum, the USDA said that it expects to see a record combined area of US corn and soybeans of 182 million acres. US farmers, encouraged by seven-and-a-half-year high prices will increase their corn planted area to 92 million acres this spring, compared to 90.8 million acres last year. The US is the world’s leading corn exporter and this season will see its shipments rising by 21 million tonnes on the previous year to 66 million tonnes. This is helping to meet increasing demand to China where corn imports will rise to 24 million tonnes, which is over 17 million tonnes up on the year.

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Frontrunner - 12th February 2021

Fri, 12 Feb 2021 16:00:53 GMT

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on Tuesday this week, which many traders expected to present a very bullish picture for world grains, particularly corn.

Last week’s record US corn sales to China coupled with adverse South American weather over the past month, which has impacted on corn production prospects for Argentina and Brazil, encouraged further buying. Prior to the publication of the WASDE report, these circumstances had taken US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn futures to new contract highs; the highest for 7.5 years.

However, the USDA presented data which failed to meet the bullish trader expectations and triggered a spell of notable long liquidation in corn and wheat futures markets. It is estimated the speculative funds sold 55,000 CBOT corn contracts, representing 15% of their long position and values 10% below their Tuesday high.

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Frontrunner - 5th February 2021

Fri, 05 Feb 2021 16:31:03 GMT

Last week’s Frontrunner reported China making significant purchases of US corn. China bought over six million tonnes, which helped take total US weekly corn export sales to 7.44 million tonnes for the period up to the 28th January. This is a record high, doubling the previous weekly high set back in 2012.

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates that US 2020-21 exports will reach 64.77 million tonnes, which will leave US ending stocks nine million tonnes down on the year at 39.42 million tonnes.

However, the US has now sold 87% of this estimated available surplus with seven months of the season to go and with the next crop still sitting in the seed bag. Adding to this bullish situation are reduced corn production estimates from South America. Adverse weather has led the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange to lower estimates for Argentina by one million tonnes to a new total of 46 million tonnes.

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Frontrunner - 29th January 2021

Fri, 29 Jan 2021 16:30:09 GMT

Early this week, world wheat futures markets continued to be pressured by speculative long holder selling. Losses extending from the contract highs reached last week have resulted in futures markets losing almost all the price gains they had made since the start of January. Losses for London wheat futures were almost £15/t. However, further political intervention that will disrupt grain flows partnered with soaring Chinese import demand helped generate a rally from the lows. This highlighted how market price volatility may be expected to continue.

The Russian government formally approved its proposed €50/t wheat export tax which will come into effect from 1st March and run to 30th June 2021. It remains unclear what the exact impact of these taxes will be, but restricting grain flows from the world’s leading wheat exporter can only support prices in the short-term. Russian officials have confirmed they will continue taxing wheat exports from 1st July but, instead of the fixed rate, a formula will be used to calculate exact amounts. Meanwhile, disruptive weather is preventing 70 vessels from loading at the port of Azov, resulting in 20km queues of lorries waiting to tip.

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Frontrunner - 22nd January 2021

Fri, 22 Jan 2021 15:29:39 GMT

US wheat futures peaked last Friday, ending the 30% price rally that began last August. Futures markets had become technically overbought and were due a correction. US markets were closed for a public holiday on Monday but Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures subsequently posted four consecutive days of losses. London wheat futures peaked on Monday, setting a contract high price that hasn’t been seen since January 2013 before following US markets lower during the week.

One of the primary world price drivers has been increasing concerns for the availability of wheat supplies as Russia looks set to levy an increased tax for its wheat exports. It is proposed that from 1st March, any wheat shipments from the world’s leading wheat exporter would incur a €50/t tax. If this is realised, it would cause considerable disruption to normal grain flows. Later in the week, trade rumours suggested that Russia may instead employ a floating tax on its wheat exports, which analysts believe may help reduce prices. This uncertainty galvanised selling pressure.

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Frontrunner - 15th January 2021

Fri, 15 Jan 2021 16:18:18 GMT

Few World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) reports from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) trigger a market reaction such as the reaction triggered by the report released earlier this week. A report with such futures volatility following a period of prolonged market price gains hasn’t been seen since 2012/13.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn and wheat futures rallied by almost 5% whilst both Paris and London wheat futures hit new contract highs for old and new crop markets. Sterling strength against the euro tempered the UK price rally to a degree, but May 2021 London wheat futures climbed to their highest level since January 2013.

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Frontrunner - 8th January 2021

Fri, 08 Jan 2021 16:03:34 GMT

World grain markets have started the new year with sharp gains, led higher by US soybean and corn futures. Prolonged dry weather and a rainfall deficit for developing corn and soybean crops across both Argentina and Brazil are raising concerns that yields will be adversely affected amidst strengthening export demand, particularly from China. Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) corn and wheat futures rallied to highs this week not seen since 2014 as speculative funds continued to buy and established record-long positions. Price gains for corn futures have reached 50% since the summer.

Private estimates already see Brazil and Argentina corn production 10 to 15 million tonnes below the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) December estimates and, with less corn available and prices rising, demand and values for wheat are rising too. The Argentinian government suspended corn export sales until 1st March 2021 and industrial action by port workers further disrupted trade flows for the world’s third largest corn exporter.

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Frontrunner - 18th December 2020

Fri, 18 Dec 2020 16:43:13 GMT

Russia, the world’s leading wheat exporter, officially confirmed it would introduce a €25/t export tax in the new year. The tax will be applied to its 17.5-million-tonne export quota, which begins on the 15th February and runs to the 30th June 2021. Traders are unlikely to exceed the quota in light of the news that tonnage which surpasses this figure will be taxed at 50% of the sales value.

Market reaction was initially negative due to concerns that traders may step up their sales and shipments ahead of the introduction of the tax. However, that might prove difficult with reports of delays in obtaining documents from the Russian customs service. Overall, this political interference is bullish for world markets and prices have risen this week; although not for Russian farmers. Analysts have highlighted that there will now be less Russian wheat available to ship this season, cutting estimates from almost 41 million tonnes to less than 38 million tonnes.

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Frontrunner - 11th December 2020

Fri, 11 Dec 2020 14:41:17 GMT

World wheat markets posted sharp gains this week, recovering much of the losses they had made since the end of last month. The primary driver for these positive moves was news that Russia may introduce additional measures to control wheat exports. Russia has previously established a quota of 17.5 million tonnes to limit wheat exports between February and June 2021, but so far this has proved to have little impact on its domestic market prices.

President Putin criticised officials and market participants over rising prices for essential foodstuffs, such as wheat and flour, which are reported to have reached record levels in Russia. The Russian Prime Minister said measures must be taken to stabilise domestic food prices. Traders may now expect export taxes to be employed at some stage. The mechanism is already in place and could be implemented at any time. Potential for disruption of supplies from Russia, the world's leading wheat exporter, could lead to further volatility in world markets.

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Frontrunner - 4th December 2020

Fri, 04 Dec 2020 15:37:10 GMT

US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures continued to fall this week and by close of business on Thursday were 10% below the 4-year highs they peaked at in October. The increasing size of the Australian, Canadian and Indian wheat crops as well as a proposed increase in Russian export quota combine to signal ample wheat supplies and a bearish feel to markets.

The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARES) increased its official Australian wheat crop estimate to what would be the second highest on record at 31.17 million tonnes. However, some private analysts see the potential for up to 35 million tonnes, which would equal the previous record set four years ago. Australian wheat futures have dropped to a 13-week low, highlighting the need to be competitive in export markets while still facing what is, effectively, a ban from the Chinese market.

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Frontrunner - 27th November 2020

Fri, 27 Nov 2020 17:16:54 GMT

In a trading week that was shorter than usual due to Thanksgiving, there has been little fresh wheat news. Instead, markets have been buoyed by China’s continued purchasing of US corn. With another 200,000 tonnes purchased last week, the market continues to predict China’s overall demand. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has estimated it will reach 7.2 million tonnes while other private analysts are estimating that China will tender up to 30 million tones of US corn. Either way, it is creating uncertainty in markets, which is a supportive factor for old crop.

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Frontrunner - 20th November 2020

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 15:16:14 GMT

World wheat markets stalled this week with a lack of any fresh bullish features to drive them higher again. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures drifted as their winter wheat crop rating made modest improvements following recent rains. 46% of the crop is rated ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ and is up one point on the week. This is still well behind this time last year when 52% of the crop received this rating.

96% of the planned area is planted. Export sales were lower than expected at 192,000 tonnes. Market expectations were for 250,000-500,000 tonnes. This created a lacklustre tone for the market. However, the tight UK wheat supply situation bucked the trend, with London wheat futures setting new contract highs, driven higher by a spell of animal feed compounders taking cover for their forward positions. UK millers, however, remain mostly absent from the market and the prices they offer are heavily discounted to imported supplies. It seems likely this will continue to be the case until the Brexit outcome is established. Meanwhile, ships carrying imported supplies continue to berth at ports around the country.

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Frontrunner - 20th November 2020

Fri, 20 Nov 2020 15:16:07 GMT

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Frontrunner - 13th November 2020

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 15:14:59 GMT

World wheat markets rallied this week following the publication of the November World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Tuesday afternoon. There were few changes to the world wheat estimates from last month’s report.

Russian production increased by half a million tonnes to 83.5 million tonnes, the Argentinian estimate was cut by one million tonnes to 18 million tonnes and, surprisingly, the estimate did not change at all for Australia, remaining at 28.5 million tonnes, despite estimates from private analysts being as high as 32 million tonnes...

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Frontrunner - 6th November 2020

Fri, 06 Nov 2020 15:35:24 GMT

Earlier this week, wheat markets eased lower following concerns that the increasing impact of Covid-19 will lead to cuts in global demand for grains, particularly from the fuel sector. Wheat price gains made in the second half of October were all but lost. However, on Thursday, the US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean market jumped to $11 per bushel, a four-year high, which pulled world wheat prices higher with it...

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Frontrunner - 30th October 2020

Fri, 30 Oct 2020 15:28:36 GMT

World wheat markets have made impressive gains in price since harvest, highlighted by US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures which, by the end of last week, had gained over 25% in value. This is impressive as the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates a record world wheat crop of 733 million tonnes - up nine million tonnes on last year. Furthermore, USDA estimates see stocks rising by 22 million tonnes on the year to 321 million tonnes. Price gains have been generated by both strong international demand and a record-breaking export pace from Black Sea regions. Prolonged dry weather and dry soils in the US and Russia have added to the bullish sentiment in recent weeks, raising concerns for newly planted winter wheat crops.

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Frontrunner - 23rd October 2020

Fri, 23 Oct 2020 14:18:09 GMT

Earlier this week the world's futures markets continued to rise, extending their bull run that began back in August. US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) futures were close to a six-year high whilst Paris and London wheat futures each set new contract highs. Prolonged dry weather has been an increasing concern for wheat crops in Argentina, the US and Russia, and has latterly been the primary price driver. Each of these countries has received some rain, which is a benefit for some regions but mostly deemed insufficient, particularly for Russia where the forecast remains dry.

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Frontrunner - 16th October 2020

Fri, 16 Oct 2020 15:33:22 GMT

There has been little fresh news for markets this week, although on Thursday world futures markets posted significant rallies with many hitting new contract highs. Speculative funds were again assertive buyers of Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat and corn contracts as they continue to build significant long positions. Their stake in the markets is similar to those they held back in 2010 and 2012 when adverse weather severely cut wheat and corn output for many of the world's primary producers.

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Frontrunner - 9th October 2020

Fri, 09 Oct 2020 14:48:57 GMT

The world’s wheat futures markets rallied to new highs this week as prolonged dry weather conditions threatened wheat crops for some of the world’s leading producers. Speculative funds were increasingly active buyers and took Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat prices to their highest level for five years.

Wheat crops in Argentina and the US are suffering from a lack of rain, but it is dry soils extending across most of Russia that is raising the greatest concern. Russian farmers have planted over 70% of their winter wheat but ongoing dry conditions and warm temperatures could see newly planted seed fail to germinate. With no change likely in the medium term weather forecast, it is entirely possible that the world’s leading wheat exporter could see a significant fall in its 2021 wheat output...

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Frontrunner - 2nd October 2020

Fri, 02 Oct 2020 13:37:33 GMT

Late on Wednesday afternoon this week, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its quarterly US grains Productions and Stocks Report and final 2020 US wheat production estimates. This is a quarterly report which often passes without much attention. Yet, the results of this report triggered a significant price rally for the world’s grain and oilseeds markets. Supportive data was perhaps expected but not to the extent revealed.

Traders were shocked by USDA estimates that placed US wheat and corn stocks well below expected volumes. At 50.7 million tonnes, corn stocks were 6.5 million tonnes below average trader estimates and 5.8 million tonnes below this time last year.

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Frontrunner - 25th September 2020

Fri, 25 Sep 2020 13:43:57 GMT

Early this week, world wheat markets eased from their recent highs, with futures seeing some technical corrections. However, on Thursday, the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) published the Basic Payment Scheme (BPS) data; the content of which sent London wheat futures back to their contract highs. The BPS data suggests the UK wheat area for the 2019 harvest could be 3% smaller than the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) June survey stated.

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Frontrunner - 18th September 2020

Fri, 18 Sep 2020 13:43:09 GMT

Late last Friday afternoon, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) published its September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report. It increased wheat production estimates for Australia, Canada and the EU, adding 4.5 million tonnes to world output, bringing the total prediction to 770.49 million tonnes and increasing season end stocks to 319.37 million tonnes. This is up almost 20 million tonnes on the year...

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Frontrunner - 11th September 2020

Fri, 11 Sep 2020 14:29:05 GMT

Brexit discussions between the UK government and EU negotiators ran aground this week. The prospects for the UK leaving the EU without a deal became increasingly likely and concerns this will be damaging for the UK economy triggered a sterling sell-off in foreign exchange markets. By close of play on Thursday, sterling had fallen during the week by more than 3% versus the euro to its lowest level since March. London wheat futures rallied £8/t with buyers also concerned that a 'no deal' Brexit could lead to tariffs on EU wheat of up to £78/t. This presents a very challenging prospect for UK millers.

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Frontrunner - 4th September 2020

Fri, 04 Sep 2020 14:37:18 GMT

US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures rallied to a five-month high earlier this week. Since early August, CBOT wheat futures have risen in value by an impressive 12%; impressive, because many regard the world wheat market as bearish. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) sees world wheat stocks rising by 16mt this season to a record 317mt. This prediction follows significant production increases for Russia and Canada and predicted increases for Australia.

In contrast, recent Chinese buying of US wheat, corn and soybeans has lead to a wave of fund short covering, pushing US wheat futures higher. US wheat and corn sales this week were at the top end of traders' expectations, with approximately 600,000t and 2.6mt sold respectively.

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Frontrunner - 28th August 2020

Fri, 28 Aug 2020 13:00:32 GMT

London and Paris wheat futures rallied this week, reaching five-week highs and following US wheat futures from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) which gained 10% in value during August. The US market gains are due to increasing demand for both wheat and corn. US wheat export sales announced by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) on Thursday were at 740,000 tonnes – this is up on trader estimates which ranged between 400,000 and 700,000 tonnes.

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Frontrunner - 21st August 2020

Fri, 21 Aug 2020 14:28:21 GMT

One of the major bearish influences for the world wheat market is the increasing production prospects for the Russian wheat harvest. In any normal season, the best yields are seen in the south where harvest begins, and the yields fall as the harvest progresses northwards through the country. This year, however, southern Russia endured prolonged drought and heat, leaving early yields 27% down on the year and raising concerns for overall production. However, in contrast to other seasons, yields continued to improve throughout the harvest.

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Frontrunner - 14th August 2020

Fri, 14 Aug 2020 14:40:36 GMT

Speculative selling on wheat futures markets continued this week and saw values from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) drop to a six-week low. The increasing size of the Russian wheat crop seemed sufficient to encourage sellers, as analysts published new estimates surpassing 80 million tonnes. Average yields are running above last year and, with a larger wheat area drilled, it seems likely that Russia will produce its second largest wheat crop on record. However, there is still time for the average yield to fall as some of the worst drought-affected spring wheat areas are yet to be combined.

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Frontrunner - 7th August 2020

Fri, 07 Aug 2020 13:55:58 GMT

US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures lost 5% of their value this week as traders reacted to increases in crop estimates for some of the world's major wheat producers. Improving Russian prospects were highlighted as a primary driver for the move. The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) raised its estimate to 79.5 million tonnes from 78 million tonnes as the Russian wheat harvest reached 46% completion and average yields surpassed last year, up to 3.66t/ha from 3.62t/ha.

49.7 million tonnes have been combined compared to 46.7 million tonnes at the same time last year. Additional selling pressure came from news that Canadian farmers could harvest a record wheat crop this season.

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Frontrunner - 31st July 2020

Fri, 31 Jul 2020 13:56:51 GMT

Last Friday, global markets saw a considerable lift following reports of significant export sales to China from the US for corn and soybeans. On Monday, however, this lift was wiped out on the back of increased Russian wheat crop estimates and less than expected US wheat shipments.

The Institute of Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) increased its Russian wheat production estimate to 78 million tonnes. This is up from 76.5 million tonnes previously and comes as a result of the higher yields being seen in the Black Earth region, which are moving the average closer to that of last year due to the increased area drilled.

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Frontrunner - 24th July 2020

Fri, 24 Jul 2020 15:17:00 GMT

Early UK wheat harvest results suggest huge variability in terms of yield and quality, with wide-ranging proteins grabbing the headlines thus far and testing generally lower than at this stage last year. The Hagberg falling numbers and specific weights reported also reflect a less-than-ideal growing season and, with a mixed short-term weather forecast, this may continue to be the case.

Elsewhere, FranceAgriMer estimates 57% of soft wheat to be in ‘good’ to ‘excellent’ condition. This is a 2% improvement on last week, bringing the harvest to 71% completion.

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Frontrunner - 17th July 2020

Mon, 20 Jul 2020 13:26:37 GMT

This week has seen volatile trading on US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures caused by rumours of US wheat sales to China along with further cuts to wheat crop estimates for some of the major producers.

CBOT wheat futures hit contract lows ahead of the Stocks and Acreage Report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) which was published on the 30th June. However, an unexpected cut of 600,000 acres in the planted wheat area, and therefore the lowest US wheat area since records began, triggered a positive turn for the market.

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Frontrunner - 10th July 2020

Mon, 20 Jul 2020 13:20:26 GMT

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures prices rallied by more than 6% this week as speculative funds bought heavily, covering large parts of their short positions. This surge in buying was triggered by reports of poor early harvest wheat yields in France and the Black Sea region. Buying was also triggered by a string of revised wheat crop production estimates that has seen output lowered for some of the world's primary wheat exporters.

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Frontrunner - 3rd July 2020

Mon, 20 Jul 2020 13:19:07 GMT

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) surprised markets at the end of March 2020 when it published its US quarterly stocks and acreage report. It estimated that US farmers would significantly expand their corn planted area. The estimate predicted the planted corn area would be 7.3 million acres greater than last year, when prolonged rainfall kept farmers out of the fields.

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Frontrunner - 26th June 2020

Mon, 20 Jul 2020 13:17:42 GMT

Wheat markets continued to fall this week, continuing the trend that coincided with the beginning of June. Improving production prospects for US wheat and corn crops are the main cause for this negativity as Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures fell to within a cent of contract lows set early last September. US CBOT corn futures slipped almost 6% lower during the week.

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Frontrunner - 19th June 2020

Mon, 20 Jul 2020 13:15:50 GMT

Improving US harvest prospects saw Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures come under increasing pressure this week, losing almost 4% of their value and falling to levels not seen since early September last year. The US wheat harvest is advancing rapidly, with 15% completed according to the most recent crop progress report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which was published on Monday evening. This figure compares to 7% at this time last year...

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Frontrunner - 12th June 2020

Mon, 20 Jul 2020 11:04:10 GMT

Beneficial rain across most of Europe, as well as improving wheat and corn production prospects in the US, weighed on wheat markets early this week. Expectations for a bumper US corn crop in the 2020/21 season grew higher as US farmers advanced their planting to 97% completion. This is ahead of the five-year average of 94% and would suggest that drilling the increased 7.3 million acres projected by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is highly likely...

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Frontrunner - 5th June 2020

Mon, 20 Jul 2020 11:02:39 GMT

Rain arriving in the UK, northern Europe and Black Sea countries has been viewed as beneficial for the drought-stricken wheat crops in these regions, triggering a wave of selling on wheat futures markets earlier this week.

UK prices suffered particularly, losing as much as 40% of the gains they made during May. Values were not helped by the 1% gain of sterling against the euro. However, there was a notable turnaround on Thursday, led by wheat futures from the US Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), which rallied to a six-week high...

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Frontrunner - 29th May 2020

Mon, 20 Jul 2020 10:57:59 GMT

Damaging heat and prolonged dry weather coupled with a fall in the value of sterling versus the euro have driven wheat prices higher again this week. Since the beginning of May, London 2020 wheat futures have gained almost £15/t. This is a particularly impressive performance when compared to French wheat futures, which, over the same period, have increased by little more than €3. Unfortunately, not all farmers will benefit from this. The prolonged wet drilling conditions throughout the autumn and winter period prevented planting in vast areas of the country and will result in the smallest UK wheat crop since the 1970s.

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Frontrunner - 22nd May 2020

Mon, 20 Jul 2020 10:53:16 GMT

World wheat markets had a poor start to the week as traders digested the bearish United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Supply and Demand report published last Tuesday. The report signalled ample grain supplies for the coming season and US wheat futures fell to lows not seen since last September. However, prolonged dry weather is adversely affecting the wheat production prospects for some of the primary producers across the Northern Hemisphere and leading officials and analysts to lower their crop estimates. This triggered a wave of buying mid-week and wheat futures rallied sharply.

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