FT Martin Wolf

Why the Irish crisis is such a huge test for the eurozone

Mon, 06 Dec 2010 15:28:00 GMT

The fault lines in the currency union stand revealed. The promise was that the eurozone would deliver its members from currency crises. But, as I, and others, warned, be careful what you wish for: credit crises would replace currency crises – and these are likely to be even worse.

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Assets matter just as much as debt

Thu, 25 Nov 2010 00:00:00 GMT

Borrowing is no sin, provided we use the funds to ensure that we bequeath a better infrastructure to the future, says Martin Wolf

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Ireland refutes the German perspective

Tue, 23 Nov 2010 00:00:00 GMT

Berlin’s emphasis on deflationary adjustment in weaker countries risks turning the eurozone as a whole into a gigantic Germany, dependent on importing demand from the rest of the world, says Martin Wolf

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How to chart a course out of the Sino-American storm

Fri, 19 Nov 2010 18:00:00 GMT

They came; they saw; they lost. That is the reaction to what emerged on global rebalancing at the summit meeting of the Group of 20 leading countries in Seoul last week. Publicly, surplus countries persist in calling on those in deficit to deflate themselves into economic health. The consequences of this folly are now evident in the eurozone. At the world level, the US will never accept it. But, beneath the radar, something more productive may be emerging.

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The IMF is giving some good fiscal advice

Fri, 19 Nov 2010 17:00:00 GMT

The International Monetary Fund does not normally respond to mere journalists. But its staff have explicitly rejected my arguments on the pace of fiscal consolidation in the UK. On one point – the need for a fiscal “plan B” – the IMF takes my side in the argument with the government. This is no small victory, not least because its latest report on the UK reads, in other respects, as if dictated to it by the Treasury.

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The Fed is right to turn on the tap

Wed, 17 Nov 2010 11:55:00 GMT

The sky is falling, scream the hysterics: the Federal Reserve is pouring forth dollars in such quantities that they will soon be worthless. Nothing could be further from the truth. As in Japan, the policy known as “quantitative easing” is far more likely to prove ineffective than lethal. It is a leaky hose, not a monetary Noah’s Flood.

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Current account targets are a way back to the future

Thu, 04 Nov 2010 15:58:00 GMT

The debate on “global imbalances” has gone back to the future. The proposal from Tim Geithner, the US Treasury secretary, to target the current account takes us back to the preoccupations of John Maynard Keynes at the Bretton Woods conference of July 1944.

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Britain has gone climbing without a rope

Thu, 28 Oct 2010 20:05:00 GMT

Martin Wolf admires the courage of the government as it launches its spending review without a Plan B but wonders whether the public will accept the necessary pain

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Why US voters are suing Dr Obama

Tue, 26 Oct 2010 21:26:00 GMT

A large part of the American public has forgotten the gravity of the financial heart attack that hit the US in the autumn of 2008. The Republicans have convinced many voters that the intervention by the Democrats, not the catastrophe George W Bush bequeathed, explains the malaise. Does President Obama deserve blame? No and yes, says Martin Wolf.

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A spending review for a diminished country

Tue, 19 Oct 2010 23:00:00 GMT

This may be a great policy success or the biggest fiscal blunder since the early 1930s. More likely, it will be in between, says Martin Wolf.

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Britain and America seek different paths from disaster

Mon, 18 Oct 2010 23:00:00 GMT

With the announcement of massive cuts in government spending the UK has launched a remarkable policy experiment. The contrast with the US – which has announced none – should at least be instructive, says Martin Wolf.

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Why higher student fees are right

Wed, 13 Oct 2010 23:00:00 GMT

The changes will bring pain. But the upside is also huge. The government should grasp this nettle now, says Martin Wolf

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Why America is going to win the global currency battle

Mon, 11 Oct 2010 23:00:00 GMT

US policymakers will do whatever is required to avoid deflation. Indeed, the Fed will keep going until the US is satisfactorily reflated. What that effort does to the rest of the world is not its concern, says Martin Wolf

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How to fight the currency wars with stubborn China

Mon, 04 Oct 2010 23:00:00 GMT

The post-crisis world economy will not work so long as its most dynamic economy is also its largest capital exporter. Policies that would turn China into a net importer would benefit both its own people and the rest of the world, says Martin Wolf

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The IMF’s foolish praise for austerity

Wed, 29 Sep 2010 23:00:00 GMT

Effective policy would see the government increase its deficit and have this rise funded by the Bank of England, says Martin Wolf

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Currencies clash in new age of beggar-my-neighbour

Mon, 27 Sep 2010 23:00:00 GMT

Twenty five years ago, France, West Germany, Japan, the US and the UK met at the Plaza Hotel in New York and agreed to push for depreciation of the US dollar. Today America has the same desire. But this time, the focus of attention is not a compliant ally, such as Japan, but the world’s next superpower: China. When such elephants fight, bystanders are likely to be trampled, says Martin Wolf

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Wen is right to worry about China’s growth

Thu, 23 Sep 2010 16:00:00 GMT

Who dares to make such a downbeat assessment of the world’s most dynamic economy before a gathering of influential foreigners in the heart of China itself?

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The risks of premature tightening

Wed, 15 Sep 2010 23:00:00 GMT

It would be more sensible to make plans for fiscal retrenchment that are explicitly contingent on how the economy recovers, says Martin Wolf

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Basel: the mouse that did not roar

Mon, 13 Sep 2010 23:00:00 GMT

The world needs a smaller and safer banking industry. The defect of the new rules is that they will fail to deliver this, says Martin Wolf

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Germans are wrong: the eurozone is good for them

Mon, 06 Sep 2010 23:00:00 GMT

Germany has an enormous political and economic interest in making the eurozone work, however unpopular that view may be, says Martin Wolf

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Why the Balls critique is correct

Wed, 01 Sep 2010 23:00:00 GMT

The market is screaming its lack of concern about UK fiscal credibility. Government debt is long-term and denominated in the domestic currency. We are terrified of a confidence bogey who is asleep, says Martin Wolf

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Obama was too cautious in fearful times

Mon, 30 Aug 2010 23:00:00 GMT

The idea that the policies adopted in the last few months of the Bush administration and the first months of this one were far better than nothing is weirdly controversial in the US, says Martin Wolf

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Why Britain does not need a graduate tax

Wed, 21 Jul 2010 23:00:00 GMT

One big drawback is that it would again put allocation of funds under the control of the state, says Martin Wolf

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Why the battle is joined over tightening

Sat, 17 Jul 2010 23:00:00 GMT

The austerity debate: To tighten or not to tighten – that is the question. It is one to which policymakers have started changing their answers. Are they right to do so?, asks Martin Wolf

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Three years and new fault lines threaten

Mon, 12 Jul 2010 23:00:00 GMT

Leaders of the world’s principal economies – both advanced and emerging – will need to reform co-operatively and deeply if the world economy is not to suffer further earthquakes, says Martin Wolf

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Why we must halt the land cycle

Wed, 07 Jul 2010 23:00:00 GMT

Ruinous trust in land speculation as the route to wealth has led to expensive houses and inefficient taxes but, far worse, it ended up destabilising the entire global economy, says Martin Wolf

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Demand shortfall casts doubt on early austerity

Mon, 05 Jul 2010 23:00:00 GMT

Rapid cuts in fiscal support make sense if, and only if, monetary policy can be effective on its own and expanding the interest-elastic parts of the economy is the best way to climb out of the hole, says Martin Wolf

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This global game of ‘pass the parcel’ cannot end well

Sun, 04 Jul 2010 23:00:00 GMT

Was the summit of the Group of 20 leading economies in Canada over the weekend a step forward towards co-operation or a step backwards towards disagreement? The answer seems to be both.

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The risks of Osborne’s pre-emptive strike

Wed, 23 Jun 2010 23:00:00 GMT

The balance of cuts that the chancellor has set out is unlikely to prove politically sustainable, let alone sensible, says Martin Wolf

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A bloodbath none was prepared for

Tue, 22 Jun 2010 08:00:00 GMT

Perhaps only a young government – in age and in time in office – would gamble so much on such a fast adjustment, says Martin Wolf

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Why it is right for central banks to keep printing

Mon, 21 Jun 2010 23:00:00 GMT

At present, we have ‘too little money chasing too many goods’. In this environment, monetary policy must be aggressive. When the economy recovers, the monetary effects should be withdrawn, says Martin Wolf

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Why plans for early fiscal tightening carry global risks

Wed, 16 Jun 2010 08:00:00 GMT

Yet again, we hear the cry of the old economic religion: repent before it is too late; the wages of fiscal sin is death. But is it already time to retrench? I doubt it, says Martin Wolf

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A question for chancellor Osborne

Wed, 09 Jun 2010 23:00:00 GMT

Congratulations, Mr Osborne, on "hitting the ground running". You have made good decisions already. So far, so good. But here is my question: what is your "plan B"? , asks Martin Wolf

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Fear must not blind us to deflation's dangers

Mon, 07 Jun 2010 23:00:00 GMT

A consensus is forming that policymakers in countries with large fiscal deficits should tighten fiscal policy sharply – but what makes them sure that business and consumers will spend in response to austerity? asks Martin Wolf

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The grasshoppers and the ants – elucidating the fable

Mon, 31 May 2010 23:00:00 GMT

Flows of finance from export-driven ant nests to advanced grasshopper colonies end in tears. Flows of finance from old ant nests to young ones have not worked out either, says Martin Wolf

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An ABC of financial shocks and fiscal aftershocks

Thu, 27 May 2010 23:00:00 GMT

‘If the forecasts are true,’ asked Bobby, ‘why do all these people talk about ‘instability’? Martin Wolf responds

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Spare Britain the policy hair shirt

Wed, 26 May 2010 23:00:00 GMT

The OECD seems to take the view that they only big risk is a loss of fiscal and monetary ‘credibility’. But Martin Wolf argues a lengthy floundering economy is a more serious risk

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The grasshoppers and the ants – a modern fable

Mon, 24 May 2010 23:00:00 GMT

Today’s global economy is more complex than Aesop could have imagined. What would be the moral of a contemporary version of his famous story where the “ants” are Germans, Chinese and Japanese, while the “grasshoppers” are American, British, Greek, Irish and Spanish, asks Martin Wolf

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Eurozone plays 'beggar my neighbour'

Mon, 17 May 2010 23:00:00 GMT

Despite today’s gloom and doom, the eurozone will probably survive. But the view that everything would now be fine had fiscal rules been followed is wrong. The private sector’s irresponsibility was the biggest failing, says Martin Wolf.

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The economic legacy of Mr Brown

Wed, 12 May 2010 23:00:00 GMT

Everybody would like to blame Gordon Brown for the financial crisis. But he was only acting in line with the national consensus on economic policy, says Martin Wolf

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Governments up the stakes in their fight with markets

Mon, 10 May 2010 23:00:00 GMT

The German inclination is to believe that everything would be fine if deficit countries were placed under greater discipline. This is false. The answer, instead, is to create a system that recognises and responds to reality, says Martin Wolf

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A bail out for Greece is just the beginning

Fri, 07 May 2010 11:50:00 GMT

Desperate times - desperate measures, says Martin.

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Britain's historic general election

Thu, 06 May 2010 13:57:00 GMT

Martin finds himself in New York for the election - which he says gives him a sense of perspective.

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Why cautious reform is the risky option

Thu, 06 May 2010 11:47:00 GMT

To make anything close to the present system less unsafe, says Martin, requires radical changes in the rules - tighter supervision is not enough, incentives must change fundamentally.

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The challenge of halting the financial Doomsday machine

Thu, 06 May 2010 10:58:00 GMT

People pay too much attention to the direct costs of bailouts says Martin and not enough to the costs which matter - those of the recession itself and the huge jump in public debt.

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Growth is the fix for British finances

Tue, 20 Apr 2010 17:17:00 GMT

Martin Wolf asks what is the right economic medicine for the UK? He argues that rebalancing the economy towards higher investment and higher net exports is a big part of the answer.

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UK economy must perform a rebalancing act

Mon, 19 Apr 2010 15:30:00 GMT

Today's fiscal deficits exceed those of any previous periods in peace time. Martin Wolf talks about the importance timing will play if the balance is to be redressed successfully.

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Evaluating the renminbi manipulation

Thu, 08 Apr 2010 23:00:00 GMT

Is China a currency manipulator? Yes. China has intervened on a gigantic scale to keep its exchange rate down and it is also protectionist.

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Why Germany cannot be a model for the eurozone

Tue, 30 Mar 2010 23:00:00 GMT

Last week’s European Council was not a solution but a fudge. The IMF cannot save Europe

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‘Back to the future’ imperils Britain

Fri, 26 Mar 2010 00:00:00 GMT

The party that deserves to win the UK election must craft a narrative that creates opportunity out of disappointment, says Martin Wolf

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Mistakes that drained the fiscal reservoir

Wed, 24 Mar 2010 00:00:00 GMT

The government is offering a delayed return to fiscal stability, with details still to be filled in. Is that good enough? No, says Martin Wolf

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Excessive virtue can be a vice for the world economy

Tue, 23 Mar 2010 00:00:00 GMT

Germany is wrong to reject a role in rebalancing global demand, says Martin Wolf. Beggar-my-neighbour policies to boost exports cannot work for everybody

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China and Germany unite to impose global deflation

Tue, 16 Mar 2010 00:00:00 GMT

Suggestions from Schäuble and Wen would hit their own economies if followed through, says Martin Wolf. But it is not too late for a co-operative

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The British election that both sides deserve to lose

Thu, 11 Mar 2010 05:00:00 GMT

At a time of crisis, the UK has to choose between a government about which it knows far too much and an opposition about which it knows far too little. Neither side is convincing, says Martin Wolf

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Germany's eurozone crisis nightmare

Tue, 09 Mar 2010 05:00:00 GMT

he twin imperatives of sound money and European integration are clashing. Ironically, Germany must become less German if the eurozone is to become more so, says Martin Wolf

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India’s elephant charges on through the crisis

Tue, 02 Mar 2010 05:00:00 GMT

The world’s biggest democracy has changed, says Martin Wolf. But economic pragmatism alone will not be enough: reforms are still needed

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How unruly economists can agree

Thu, 25 Feb 2010 05:00:00 GMT

Both sides of the debate can be right, says Martin Wolf. The public finances must be credible, but further unnecessary economic damage needs to be avoided

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The world economy has no easy way out of the mire

Tue, 23 Feb 2010 05:00:00 GMT

Finding an exit route from the extraordinary government deficits could lead to default unless there is a radical rethink, says Martin Wolf

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How to walk the fiscal tightrope that lies before us

Tue, 16 Feb 2010 05:00:00 GMT

Today, high-income countries face huge fiscal challenges crisis-hit countries start from grossly unsustainable fiscal positions. But massive fiscal tightening could tip much of the world back into recession, says Martin Wolf

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Britain can love hung parliaments

Thu, 11 Feb 2010 05:00:00 GMT

Martin Wolf says he can see no reason why it would be more difficult to implement the needed tightening under a coalition government

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Europe needs German consumers

Tue, 09 Feb 2010 05:00:00 GMT

Greece fills the role of sinner to perfection, but if it and the rest of the peripheral European countries are to avoid meltdown they need a core demand engine within the eurozone, says Martin Wolf

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What the world must do to sustain its convalescence

Tue, 02 Feb 2010 05:00:00 GMT

The policy interventions of late 2008 and 2009 resulted in a far briefer and shallower recession than most imagined a year ago. The big questions for this year are how quickly to withdraw the monetary and fiscal stimulus and which should be withdrawn first, says Martin Wolf

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Britain’s strategic chocolate dilemma

Thu, 28 Jan 2010 05:00:00 GMT

Corporate takeovers are in the spotlight again after Kraft’s successful bid for Cadbury. Martin Wolf asks whether it makes sense to run a regime as open as the UK’s

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Volcker’s axe is not enough to cut banks to size

Tue, 26 Jan 2010 05:00:00 GMT

Obama’s latest proposals for bank reform miss the point, says Martin Wolf. They may or may not be workable, but they do nothing to create a sustainable finance sector

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The Greek tragedy deserves a global audience

Tue, 19 Jan 2010 05:00:00 GMT

The problems of Greece are extreme, because it alone of the vulnerable eurozone member countries has both high fiscal deficits and high debt. Some say it should be bailed out, but there are two other possibilities – it toughs it out or just defaults, says Martin Wolf

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How the Icelandic saga should end

Thu, 14 Jan 2010 05:00:00 GMT

The combination of cross-border banking with generous guarantees to creditors is unsustainable. Taxpayers cannot be expected to write open-ended insurance on the foreign activities of their banks, says Martin Wolf

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What we can learn from Japan’s decades of trouble

Tue, 12 Jan 2010 05:00:00 GMT

Japan’s experience indicates that when fast growth begins to slow in a catch-up economy with high corporate savings and comparably high fixed investment, demand may well prove hard to manage, says Martin Wolf

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The eurozone’s next decade will be tough

Tue, 05 Jan 2010 05:00:00 GMT

The countries on the periphery of Europe’s single currency are in deep trouble thanks to the imbalances within the eurozone, says Martin Wolf. And none of the solutions looks palatable

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The challenges of managing our post-crisis world

Tue, 29 Dec 2009 05:00:00 GMT

The underpinnings of our global economy and so of our globalised civilisation remain dangerously fragile. Somehow, we must manage to sustain a dynamic global economy, promote development, deliver environmental sustainability and ensure peaceful and co-operative international relations, says Martin Wolf

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How the noughties were a hinge of history

Wed, 23 Dec 2009 05:00:00 GMT

The rest of the world was inclined to believe that the west, whatever its faults, knew what it was doing. But then the teacher failed the examination, says Martin Wolf

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Why new challenges need new people

Thu, 17 Dec 2009 05:00:00 GMT

Those parts of public sector spending that sustain the long-term health of the economy should not be sacrificed, says Martin Wolf

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Britain’s dismal choice: sharing the losses

Tue, 15 Dec 2009 05:00:00 GMT

Not only has the UK had a financial crisis, with the usual severe impact on output and the public finances; it has also been a ‘monocrop’ economy, with finance itself acting as the ‘crop’, says Martin Wolf

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Why China’s exchange rate policy concerns us

Tue, 08 Dec 2009 05:00:00 GMT

What we are seeing is a failure of adjustment to changes in global competitiveness that has unhappy precedents, notably during the 1920s and 1930s, with the rise of the US, and during the 1960s and 1970s, with the rise of Europe and Japan, says Martin Wolf

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The post post-Thatcher era begins

Thu, 03 Dec 2009 05:00:00 GMT

The era of reforms from Thatcher through to New Labour led to rapid growth which, even after recent falls, has left Britain better placed than most major economies, says Martin Wolf

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Why Copenhagen must be the end of the beginning

Tue, 01 Dec 2009 05:00:00 GMT

Next week’s summit will fall short, but at least there is now broad agreement that action is needed to tackle climate change, says Martin Wolf. Solving the problem needs a stable price for carbon, needs wealthy countries to pay up and needs big subsidies for new technology

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Give us fiscal austerity, but not quite yet

Tue, 24 Nov 2009 05:00:00 GMT

Slashing deficits now would be wrong, argues Martin Wolf. What is needed, instead, are credible fiscal institutions and a road map for tightening that will be implemented, automatically, as and when the private sector's spending recovers

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Tax the windfall banking bonuses

Thu, 19 Nov 2009 05:00:00 GMT

The case for generous subventions to banks is to restore the financial system to health, not to enrich bankers, says Martin Wolf

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Grim truths Obama should have told Hu

Tue, 17 Nov 2009 05:00:00 GMT

Obama should have made clear the need for China to revalue its currency and rebalance the global economy when he met Hu Jintao, says Martin Wolf. He could reasonably threaten punitive action, such is the need for change

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Victory in the cold war was a start as well as an ending

Tue, 10 Nov 2009 05:00:00 GMT

Has capitalism failed, as communism did? No. Some transition countries are in crisis; but transition itself is not. Liberal democracies and market economies can reform and adapt. They have shown these qualities before. They must do so again, says Martin Wolf

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Time for a debate on immigration

Thu, 05 Nov 2009 05:00:00 GMT

Diversity brings social benefits, but also costs, arising from declining trust and erosion of a sense of shared values, says Martin Wolf

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Private behaviour will shape our path to fiscal stability

Tue, 03 Nov 2009 05:00:00 GMT

It is idiotic to discuss the reduction of the huge fiscal deficits, without considering the nature of the offsetting adjustments in the private and external sectors. Some adjustments would be desirable, but others would be extremely perilous, says Martin Wolf

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How mistaken ideas helped to bring the economy down

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 16:00:00 GMT

The era when central banks could target inflation and assume that what was happening in asset and credit markets was no concern of theirs is over. Not only can asset prices be valued; they have to be, argues Martin Wolf

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Why curbing finance is hard to do

Fri, 23 Oct 2009 04:00:00 GMT

There is a way of making finance safe. But it would be radical: deposits would be 100 per cent reserve backed; and the liabilities of other investment vehicles would be adjusted for the market value of their assets at all times. Banking would disappear, argues Martin Wolf.

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How to manage the gigantic financial cuckoo in our nest

Tue, 20 Oct 2009 19:00:00 GMT

This recovery has been no accident. When central bank money is almost free, prices of risky assets are recovering, competitors have disappeared or are weakened, making money is a relatively simple matter for the strong survivors, argues Martin Wolf

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Rumours of the dollar’s death are much exaggerated

Tue, 13 Oct 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Recent figures have proved that the dollar’s fall is a symptom of success, not of failure. All the same, the dollar-based global monetary system is defective. It would be good to start building alternative arrangements, says Martin Wolf

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Britain’s phoney debate on slashing spending

Mon, 12 Oct 2009 04:00:00 GMT

In deciding what to do about the UK's general government deficit, we must recognise the uncertainties: we do not know how big the “structural” fiscal deficit is; we do not know how long correction can be delayed before investors lose confidence; and we do not know how far a fiscal tightening will weaken aggregate demand. But the costs of being too optimistic are likely to be higher than of being too pessimistic. That should determine how policymakers respond.

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Finding a route to recovery and reform gets tough now

Tue, 06 Oct 2009 04:00:00 GMT

The economy is back on track, but it is too soon to celebrate victory, says Martin Wolf. Rebalancing, reform and regulation are still needed, none of which will be easy. Resistance from the banks is already threatening to poison the political debate

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Why narrow banking alone is not the finance solution

Tue, 29 Sep 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Demanding that banks act as narrow utilities solves the problem of the financial system taking control of the power to print money, but would need to be paired with a ban on other forms of banking. Such radical ideas may yet be entertained, says Martin Wolf

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This time will never be different

Mon, 28 Sep 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Martin Wolf welcomes a seminal empirical study of the frequently repeated cycles of euphoria, panic and default in public debt and global finance

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Why Vince Cable’s mansions tax is right

Thu, 24 Sep 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Only in a country both besotted with property and determined to tax the middle classes, rather than the hugely wealthy, would people object to this obviously just idea, says Martin Wolf

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Why China must do more to rebalance its economy

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Remember how poor hundreds of millions of Chinese still are. Then consider that the net transfer of resources abroad was equal to a third of personal consumption. China needs to increase consumption, and that means revaluing the currency, says Martin Wolf

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Do not learn wrong lessons from Lehman’s fall

Tue, 15 Sep 2009 04:00:00 GMT

No normal profit-seeking business can operate without a credible threat of bankruptcy, says Martin Wolf

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Wheel of fortune turns as China outdoes the west

Sun, 13 Sep 2009 04:00:00 GMT

China has emerged as the most significant winner from the global financial crisis. At the end of 2008, many questioned whether China would achieve its growth target of 8 per cent in 2009. Who now dares to do so?, asks Martin Wolf

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Turner is asking the right questions on finance

Thu, 10 Sep 2009 04:00:00 GMT

The debate is the right one but the more one analyses the debate and what is happening, the more difficult it is to believe that a safer and more responsible industry is emerging, argues Martin Wolf

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Why it is still too early to start withdrawing stimulus

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 04:00:00 GMT

The rescue of the financial system, unprecedented monetary easing and fiscal expansion have indeed put a floor under the world economy. But it is too early for the Group of 20 leading economies to pat themselves on the back, argues Martin Wolf

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What India must do if it is to be an affluent country

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 04:00:00 GMT

What would need to change if India were to become an affluent country in one generation? A great deal, says Martin Wolf

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Much ado about central bankers

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 04:00:00 GMT

One of the results of this whole crisis is to imperil central bank independence and not just in the UK, says Martin Wolf

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The cautious approach to fixing banks will not work

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Already the panic of 2008 is fading, yet without radical changes another crisis is certain, says Martin Wolf

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Why honesty is the best fiscal policy

Thu, 18 Jun 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Cuts in real spending are as inevitable under Labour as under the Tories. The only question is where they might fall, says Martin Wolf

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The recession tracks the Great Depression

Tue, 16 Jun 2009 04:00:00 GMT

The great likelihood is that the world economy will need aggressive monetary and fiscal policies far longer than many believe, says Martin Wolf

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Why Britain has to curb finance

Thu, 21 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

How should one manage a sector that produces such 'bads'? The answer is: in the same way as any polluting activity, says Martin Wolf

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This crisis is a moment, but is it a defining one?

Tue, 19 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Is the current crisis a watershed, with market-led globalisation, financial capitalism and western domination on the one side and protectionism, regulation and Asian predominance on the other? Or will historians judge it, instead, as an event caused by fools, signifying little, asks Martin Wolf

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Obama's conservatism may not prove good enough

Tue, 12 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

The more the crisis unfolds, the more evident it is that incentives in the financial system were (and are) badly distorted, says Martin Wolf. At the end, will the number of institutions thought 'too big to fail' be as large as now and, if so, how will they be controlled?

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Tackling Britain's fiscal debacle

Thu, 07 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

The UK has lost control over public spending. Like it or not, voters must elect a government willing to get it back, says Martin Wolf

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Central banks must target more than just inflation

Tue, 05 May 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Over almost three decades, policymakers became ever more confident they had found, in inflation targeting, the holy grail of fiat (or man-made) money. Today, they are struggling with the deepest recession since the 1930s and the danger of deflation. How can it have gone so wrong, asks Martin Wolf

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Fixing bankrupt systems is just the beginning

Tue, 28 Apr 2009 04:00:00 GMT

The largest economies have made the fundamental decision to prevent bankruptcy, but this is only the first step on the long road to financial health. Those who hope for a swift return to what they thought normal two years ago are deluded, says Martin Wolf

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Is the UK once again the economic sick man?

Thu, 23 Apr 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Fiscal deterioration in the UK and declines in manufactured output in Germany and Japan are two sides of one coin, says Martin Wolf

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Why the 'green shoots' of recovery could yet wither

Tue, 21 Apr 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Is the worst behind us? In a word, No. The rate of economic decline is decelerating. But it is too soon even to be sure of a turnround, let alone of a return to rapid growth. These are still early days, argues Martin Wolf.

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Is America the new Russia?

Fri, 17 Apr 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Decisive restructuring is necessary, because bankruptcy - and so losses for unsecured creditors - must be a part of any durable solution to this economic crisis, says Martin Wolf

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What the G2 must discuss now the G20 is over

Tue, 07 Apr 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Given the scale of the world's macroeconomic imbalances, it is far from obvious that higher regulatory standards alone would have saved the world. This is not just a matter of historical interest. It is also relevant to the sustainability of the recovery, says Martin Wolf

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Credibility is key to policy success

Thu, 02 Apr 2009 04:00:00 GMT

The ability to navigate through the financial crisis depends on the sincerity of the authorities' commitment to long-term stability, says Martin Wolf.

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Why G20 leaders will fail to deal with the big challenge

Tue, 31 Mar 2009 04:00:00 GMT

The G20 summit is dealing with the short-term symptoms of chronic global excess. The world economy cannot be safely balanced by a small number of countries spending themselves into bankruptcy. Finding a longer-term cure for the illness still lies ahead

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Successful bank rescue still far away

Tue, 24 Mar 2009 04:00:00 GMT

With the IMF expecting world output to shrink by up to 1 per cent this year and the economies of the advanced countries to shrink by between 3 and 3.5 per cent, this is the worst global economic crisis since the 1930s. So far the congressional response has been a disaster

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Why the Turner report is a watershed for finance

Thu, 19 Mar 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Yet even this radicalism is limited: the report rejects division of the financial system into utilities and a casino.

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Why saving the world economy should be affordable

Tue, 17 Mar 2009 04:00:00 GMT

Is there good reason to expect huge increases in public sector indebtedness across the globe? Yes. But this does not guarantee defaults.

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Why the G20 must focus on sustaining demand

Tue, 10 Mar 2009 04:00:00 GMT

The right thing to do is 'more than enough.' It will always be possible to withdraw stimulus a year or two hence. It will be far more difficult to make action effective if depression, both economic and social, takes hold.

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Big risks for the insurer of last resort

Thu, 05 Mar 2009 05:00:00 GMT

If the UK government believes bail-out must be piled upon bail-out, then banking must be treated as a regulated utility - end of story.

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To nationalise or not - that is the question

Tue, 03 Mar 2009 05:00:00 GMT

We are painfully learning that the world's mega-banks are too complex to manage, too big to fail and too hard to restructure. Nobody would wish to start from here. But, as worries in the stock market show, banks must be fixed, in an orderly and systematic way.

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What Obama should tell leaders of the Group of 20

Tue, 24 Feb 2009 05:00:00 GMT

The London summit of 1933 marked the moment at which joint efforts to manage the Great Depression collapsed. The summit of the Group of 20 countries, which will be held in the same city on April 2, must turn out quite differently.

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Thinking anew on UK monetary policy

Thu, 19 Feb 2009 05:00:00 GMT

A cogent analysis of prospects for inflation has to be broader and more long term in thinking than that in the Bank of England inflation report.

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Lessons from Japan for a world of balance sheet deflation

Tue, 17 Feb 2009 05:00:00 GMT

How far is that experience relevant to today? Japan was able to rely on exports to a buoyant world economy. This crisis is global: the bubbles and financial mania spread across much of the western world.

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Why Obama will fail to rescue the banks with his new Tarp

Tue, 10 Feb 2009 05:00:00 GMT

The US president must do far more than hope for the best. Yet that is what one sees in his stimulus programme and, judging from the sketchy announcement by the Treasury secretary, in the new plans for fixing the banking system.

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It is always the economy, stupid

Thu, 05 Feb 2009 05:00:00 GMT

I would far rather have to manage the UK through this crisis, despite the challenges, than Spain or Ireland, says Martin Wolf.

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Why Davos Man is waiting for Obama to save him

Tue, 03 Feb 2009 05:00:00 GMT

However easy it is to blame the US for global economic woes, it is also to the US that the world looks for a solution. Concerted action is needed to reverse the downward spiral of despair, and that will only occur if the US gives leadership.

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Why dealing with the huge debt overhang is so hard

Tue, 27 Jan 2009 05:00:00 GMT

Countries with large current account surpluses have long demanded an end to the profligate borrowing and spending of the customers upon whom they depended. They should have been careful what they wished for.

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Are UK banks too big to rescue?

Thu, 22 Jan 2009 05:00:00 GMT

By offering guarantees, the government could be subsidising the recreation of a market in lemons.

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Why Obama must mend a sick world economy

Tue, 20 Jan 2009 05:00:00 GMT

One idea the new US president should propose is a committee at the highest level to recommend a radical restructuring of global institutions. This would aim to lower the risk of emerging market crises like those that preceded the bubbles in advanced countries.

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Why Obama plan is still inadequate and incomplete

Tue, 13 Jan 2009 05:00:00 GMT

If the fiscal deficits are to fall sharply in the medium term, as they need to, the new US president needs effective programmes for private sector deleveraging and global reform and adjustment.

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Politicians squabble but no light emerges

Thu, 08 Jan 2009 05:00:00 GMT

The utterances of leading Labour and Conservative politicians do not explain how the UK is to emerge from its current quagmire.

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Choices made in 2009 will shape global destiny

Tue, 06 Jan 2009 05:00:00 GMT

Some entertain hopes of restoring the globally unbalanced economic growth of the middle years of this decade. They are wrong. Our choice is between a better balanced world economy and disintegration. And it must be made this year.

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Why Keynes remains relevant today

Tue, 23 Dec 2008 05:00:00 GMT

Sixty-two years after the death of John Maynard Keynes, the father of macroeconomics, it is easier for us to understand what remains relevant in his teaching as the financial crisis deepens.

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Testing times for 'Helicopter Ben'

Tue, 16 Dec 2008 05:00:00 GMT

Central banks may resort to their most powerful weapons against deflation: the printing press and the so-called helicopter drop of money. Will this work? Yes. But returning to normality will prove far more elusive.

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What to do with British banks

Thu, 11 Dec 2008 05:00:00 GMT

The biggest challenge is getting through the extended emergency support to a more sustainable structure, says Martin Wolf

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The eurozone depends on the US

Tue, 09 Dec 2008 05:00:00 GMT

A robust recovery would eliminate the danger of some countries being badly damaged. If it does arrive, there is no doubt where it will come from: not from the actions of Germany to sustain domestic demand, but from profligate Anglo-Saxons.

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The threat of imbalance to liberal trade

Tue, 02 Dec 2008 05:00:00 GMT

The world has run out of willing and creditworthy private borrowers. In the long run, the global economy will have to rebalance. As in the 1930s, if the surplus countries do not expand domestic demand, the open world economy may even break down.

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How Britain flirts with disaster

Thu, 27 Nov 2008 05:00:00 GMT

Is the UK on the road to disaster? Is it mad to tackle a calamity caused by excessive borrowing with still more borrowing? No, if the government remains creditworthy. Yes, if it does not. So, after its pre-Budget report, should you trust the UK government with your money, or not?

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Stock markets start to look attractive

Tue, 25 Nov 2008 05:00:00 GMT

We have bad news and good news. The bad news is that the world economy is teetering on the brink. The good news is that, after an extended period of overvaluation, stock markets are, at last, attractively priced. This should have enticing implications for investors and even for audacious governments.

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A gamble on investor confidence

Mon, 24 Nov 2008 05:00:00 GMT

UK chancellor Alistair Darling has delivered not a pre-Budget report, but a crisis budget. Profligacy has replaced prudence as the watchword. But, the chancellor would insist, it is profligacy with a purpose. Will the government get away with its gamble?

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Living perilously

Fri, 21 Nov 2008 05:00:00 GMT

Panic has seized markets. Deep depressions deliver not healthy cleansing of excess, but social and political catastrophe. The time for aggressive countervailing action is now.

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Eurozone membership is still no answer for UK

Tue, 18 Nov 2008 05:00:00 GMT

In an uncertain world, an economy needs mechanisms of adjustment. The exchange rate is the most powerful such mechanism. Today's extreme circumstances have made the case for retaining exchange-rate flexibility not weaker, but stronger, says Martin Wolf.

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What Britain's authorities must do

Thu, 13 Nov 2008 05:00:00 GMT

The country must temper the needed adjustment to the shock, without destroying its longer-term credibility, says Martin Wolf.

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Obama's economic challenges

Tue, 11 Nov 2008 05:00:00 GMT

The president-elect must build on the achievements of his predecessors rather than turn the US away from the world. He must push reforms that help most Americans gain from globalisation and promote reforms abroad, says Martin Wolf.

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Congratulations must go to the MPC

Thu, 06 Nov 2008 05:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England's monetary policy committee has, in extreme circumstances, adopted the risk management approach followed by Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve. It was right to do so.

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What the British authorities should try now

Thu, 30 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The idea that a quick recession would purge the world of past excesses is ludicrous. Choosing to risk a catastrophic downward spiral would be like deciding to let a city burn in order to punish someone who smoked in bed. Everything possible must be done to prevent the inescapable recession from turning into something worse, says Martin Wolf.

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Preventing a global slump must be the priority

Tue, 28 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

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The world wakes from the wish-dream of decoupling

Tue, 21 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The worst consequences of the banking crisis - a true depression - have been avoided. But the impact of the implosion of what economist Nouriel Roubini calls 'the largest leveraged asset bubble and credit bubble in history' is hitting real economies hard, says Martin Wolf.

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FT Special Debate: No more good times?

Mon, 20 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Leading economists from London Business School - Lucrezia Reichln, Richard Portes, Andrew Scott and Helene Rey - dissect the roots of the financial crisis, and debate how badly the real economy will be affected. The debate was chaired on Oct 14 by Mark Malcolmson in front of alumni of the LBS.

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A policy success amid the disaster

Thu, 16 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The costs of decisive action were vastly less than those of inaction. The fiscal burden should prove quite manageable, says Martin Wolf.

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Governments have at last thrown the world a lifeline

Tue, 14 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Policymakers finally realised that a plan for dealing with such a severe financial crisis must contain those elements that are individually necessary and collectively sufficient. The announced programmes are, in scale and construction, what is needed, says Martin Wolf.

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FT Special Interview: Mohamed El-Erian

Tue, 14 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The winner of the FT-Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year award tells Andrew Hill, FT city editor, how concerns about the signals coming out of markets in 2007 inspired his book When Markets Collide. He warns of more turbulence to come.

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FT Special Debate: What happens after the Icelandic bank collapse?

Fri, 10 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Martin Wolf and Gillian Tett, FT capital markets editor, discuss how highly leveraged Iceland came unstuck in the global financial crisis, and how the risk of sovereign default has grown there and in other countries

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It is time for full-scale financial rescue

Thu, 09 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The fear driving the breakdown in financial markets is as exaggerated as the greed that drove the opposite behaviour a little while ago. But unjustified panic also causes devastation. Martin Wolf argues it must be halted, not next week, but right now.

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FT special debate: will the UK bank rescue plan work?

Wed, 08 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

In this special podcast, Martin Wolf, chief economics commentator, discusses with FT leader writers, Christopher Adams and Chris Cook, whether the UK bank rescue plan will work, and how this week's G7 summit should react.

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What Britain must do in the crisis

Thu, 02 Oct 2008 04:00:00 GMT

As the financial crisis deepens, should the UK follow the US rescue package? Martin Wolf says on balance, the answer is: no. But the question raises some big issues: above all, he says that prudence today demands bold actions.

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Congress decides it is worth risking another depression

Tue, 30 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

It is just over 70 years since the Great Depression. Judged by its rejection of the US Treasury's bail-out plan, Congress believes it is time to risk another one. Martin Wolf argues a slump is not inevitable but only if action is taken to prevent one.

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Paulson's plan was not a true solution to the crisis

Fri, 26 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The US Treasury secretary views the core challenge as illiquidity, not insolvency. By creating a market for toxic assets, he hopes to halt the spiral of falling prices and bankruptcies. But the scheme is neither necessary nor efficient, says Martin Wolf

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How to meet the dangers facing Britain

Wed, 17 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Do not panic: the UK economy ought to be able to get through this crisis without a recession as deep as those of the early 1980s and 1990s, says Martin Wolf

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The end of lightly regulated finance has come far closer

Tue, 16 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Is the worst now over? Certainly not. The biggest outstanding question is whether government-led rescues of undercapitalised financial systems will be needed. This is now looking increasingly likely, says Martin Wolf

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The Wolf v Kay debate: will more regulation stop future financial crises?

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

In this special podcast, FT editor Lionel Barber chairs a debate between Martin Wolf and John Kay on the limits to regulating the banks. The debate was inspired by opposing articles these two leading economics experts wrote in March this year (see below).

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US housing solution is not a good one to follow

Tue, 09 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Is the rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac an example of US policymaking that the UK, quite as vulnerable to the collapse in the housing market, should follow? Martin Wolf very much hopes it will not. But the pressures on the UK government to act will be strong

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No alternative to nationalisation

Mon, 08 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The US public has ended up with an open-ended guarantee of the liabilities created by supposedly private entities. It is a bad place to be

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Why the sky may not be falling

Thu, 04 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

A weak government is a risk. Any policies it introduces must avoid undermining confidence in the UK???s policy regime.

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What the presidential choice could mean

Tue, 02 Sep 2008 04:00:00 GMT

This presidential election might well determine the character of the next, possibly final, epoch of Anglo-American global hegemony. The question is whether the American people will choose the instinct for conflict or that for co-operation.

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The return of the Russia the west loves to loathe

Fri, 29 Aug 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Superannuated cold warriors and neo-cons are salivating over the notion of a new cold war with Russia

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A year of living dangerously

Tue, 15 Jul 2008 04:00:00 GMT

It is almost a year since the US subprime crisis went global. The hope that the repricing of risk would be no more than a brief interruption has been disappointed. So where is the world economy now?

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Falling off a cliff in slow motion

Thu, 10 Jul 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Martin Wolf examines the outlook for the UK property market, concluding that a big drop in house prices is likely. This is attributed partly to extraordinarily high prices and partly to the unavailability of credit.

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Lessons to be learnt from the financial crisis

Wed, 09 Jul 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Martin Wolf reflects on why the financial crisis happened and the risks now facing the global economy. He also considers how the frequency and severity of future crises can be reduced.

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Why obstacles to a deal on climate change are mountainous

Tue, 08 Jul 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Tackling man-made climate change is much the most complex collective action problem in human history. Solving it will require concerted efforts from both developed and developing countries over at least a century. But there is no choice but to try.

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How to see world economy through two crises

Mon, 07 Jul 2008 04:00:00 GMT

In the short term, the biggest monetary policy requirement is a tightening in emerging economies, many of which have strongly negative real interest rates. As important is letting jumps in energy prices pass through, forcing adjustments in energy use, says Martin Wolf.

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Britain out of luck

Mon, 07 Jul 2008 04:00:00 GMT

What is ahead will be tougher than the expansion the UK has been used to for 16 years. But it is not the end of the world, says Martin Wolf.

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How imbalances led to credit crunch and inflation

Wed, 18 Jun 2008 04:00:00 GMT

What explains the combination of a 'credit crunch' in the US with soaring commodity prices and rising inflation across the globe? Are these related events? So far this is not a return to the 1970s. But action is needed to keep this true, suggests Martin Wolf.

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Britain's utility model is broken

Fri, 13 Jun 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Investors have been able to buy utility companies, replace the equity with debt and enjoy a licence to print money. This is intolerable, argues Martin Wolf.

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Sustaining growth is the century's big challenge

Wed, 11 Jun 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Is it possible for the vast mass of humanity to enjoy the living standards of today's high-income countries? Jeffrey Sachs has produced an analysis that manages to be both pessimistic and optimistic at the same time. One might not be quite as optimistic about the solutions. But one must recognise the salience of the challenges, argues Martin Wolf.

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Useful dos and don'ts for fast economic growth

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Achieving sustained, rapid growth turns out to be very hard. This is no objection to the findings of the Growth Report - it is, rather, an admission of how little we know about such a complex economic, social and political process.

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Britain is better off outside the euro

Thu, 29 May 2008 04:00:00 GMT

If a country is to join the eurozone, its people must be willing to cope with the consequences forever.

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Emu's second 10 years may be tougher

Tue, 27 May 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The eurozone is a triumph as a monetary union. Yet it is much less so as an economic union. Its creation has not caused the acceleration in dynamism that proponents hoped for - if anything, structural reforms have slowed.

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Preserving the open economy at times of stress

Wed, 21 May 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Everybody should remember, above all, that the opening of the world economy is the west's greatest economic policy achievement. It would be a tragedy if it were to turn its back on the world when the rest of humanity is at last turning towards it.

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Britain must not cut loose its anchor

Fri, 16 May 2008 04:00:00 GMT

In the 1970s, letting inflation rip, to avoid pain in the short run, increased it in the long run. The UK must not repeat that error.

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The market sets high oil prices to tell us what to do

Wed, 14 May 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Oil is a finite resource; it drives global transport; and if emerging economies consumed it as Europeans do, world consumption would jump by 150 per cent. Don't blame the high price on speculators and big bad oil companies, says Martin Wolf. The reality is different.

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Seven habits finance regulators must acquire

Wed, 07 May 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Unless we are comfortable with a crisis every five years or so, financial regulation must be radically reconsidered. Tighter rules are desirable in the longer-run interests of the banking industry itself let alone the public's. What should such regulation look like?

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Why Britain's economy will change

Fri, 02 May 2008 04:00:00 GMT

What does the economic turmoil mean for the UK economy? This is not a question about prospects for the next year. It is deeper than that: how well can an economy long characterised by soaring house prices, exploding debt and a dynamic financial sector adjust to a new world?

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Food crisis is a chance to reform global agriculture

Tue, 29 Apr 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Nobody knows how long these shocks will last, but they demand rapid policy changes across the globe. We must choose between fragmenting markets further and integrating them, between helping the poor and letting even more starve.

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A turning point in managing the world's economy

Wed, 23 Apr 2008 04:00:00 GMT

How do we persuade citizens the rise of the emerging countries, the brightest story of our era, is to be welcomed, asks Martin Wolf.

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Let Britain's housing bubble burst

Fri, 18 Apr 2008 04:00:00 GMT

It is high time the British realised a people cannot become rich by selling ever more expensive houses to one another, argues Martin Wolf

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Why financial regulation is both difficult and essential

Wed, 16 Apr 2008 04:00:00 GMT

A voluntary banking code is almost certainly not worth the paper it is written on. If regulation is to be effective, it must cover all relevant institutions and the entire balance sheet and, not least, it must make finance less pro-cyclical, argues Martin Wolf

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Why Greenspan does not bear most of the blame

Tue, 08 Apr 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The former chairman of the Federal Reserve, once lauded as the 'maestro', has, to his discomfort, become the scapegoat for the crisis. Much of the criticism is highly unfair, but there are areas where he is wrong.

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Four falsehoods on UK immigration

Thu, 03 Apr 2008 04:00:00 GMT

While the economic arguments of a high level of net immigration are weak, this does not mean that substantial gross immigration, particularly of skilled people, is undesirable.

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The prudent will have to pay for the profligate

Tue, 01 Apr 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Neither households nor the financial sector as a whole can de-leverage swiftly, other than via a calamitous mass default or by shifting their debt elsewhere, usually on to the government. A private-sector financial mania will finish up as public-sector pain.

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The rescue of Bear Stearns marks liberalisation's limit

Tue, 25 Mar 2008 04:00:00 GMT

For three decades we have moved towards market-driven financial systems. By its decision to rescue Bear Stearns, the Federal Reserve, the institution responsible for monetary policy in the US, chief protagonist of free-market capitalism, declared this era over.

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Why today's hedge fund industry may not survive

Fri, 21 Mar 2008 04:00:00 GMT

Just as it is particularly difficult to know whether a manager is skilful rather than lucky, it is hard to distinguish talented managers from untalented, so the business is bound to attract the unscrupulous and unskilled.

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The debutant banks on a brighter fiscal future

Wed, 12 Mar 2008 04:00:00 GMT

The chancellor used the new watchword 'stability' 23 times. 'Prudence', however, never crossed his lips. This is a telling shift.

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Going, going, gone: a rising auction of scary scenarios

Tue, 11 Mar 2008 04:00:00 GMT

A trillion dollars here, a trillion dollars there, and pretty soon you are talking real money, even for the US. Most of the losses will fall not on the financial sector but elsewhere.

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Leona Helmsley remains alive in Britain

Thu, 06 Mar 2008 05:00:00 GMT

'Only the little people pay taxes' - that is the principle behind all the screaming about non-dom taxation, argues Martin Wolf.

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Life in a tough world of high commodity prices

Tue, 04 Mar 2008 05:00:00 GMT

If central banks are confident commodity prices will stop rising, they should slash rates. But, given the continued growth of emerging economies, they cannot be sure of that. Worse, core inflation seems to be drifting upwards.

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Why Washington's rescue cannot end crisis story

Tue, 26 Feb 2008 05:00:00 GMT

When bubbles burst, asset prices decline, net worth of non-financial borrowers shrinks and illiquidity and insolvency emerge in the financial system. The US government can rescue the economy. It is now being forced to do so. But that is not the end of this story

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Brown is wrong even when he is right

Thu, 21 Feb 2008 05:00:00 GMT

The lesson for the government seems to be it is not enough to make what seem to be the right decisions if one does so in the wrong way, suggests Martin Wolf.

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America's economy risks mother of all meltdowns

Tue, 19 Feb 2008 05:00:00 GMT

The link between the bursting of the housing bubble and the fragility of the financial system has created huge dangers for the US and the world. The US public sector is coming to the rescue and will succeed, but the journey will be uncomfortable, argues Martin Wolf

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Why Putin's rule threatens both Russia and the west

Tue, 12 Feb 2008 05:00:00 GMT

In place of erstwhile hopes for the emergence of a democracy, we have proto-fascism: aggrieved nationalism; bullying of smaller nations; a cult of the strong leader; suspicion of enemies within; and resentment of foreigners.

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Why a crisis is also an opportunity

Thu, 07 Feb 2008 05:00:00 GMT

The credit crunch is the economy's brutal way of telling us that this era of unsustainable growth in spending and debt is over.

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Why it is so hard to keep the financial sector caged

Tue, 05 Feb 2008 05:00:00 GMT

We have a banking sector that has a demonstrated capacity to generate huge crises because of the incentives to take on under-appreciated risks. We lack the will and even the capacity to regulate it, yet have no obvious alternative but to try to do so.

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Bernanke's reflation gamble may work too well

Tue, 29 Jan 2008 05:00:00 GMT

If the US succeeds in its ???risk management', it will renew and, at worst, exacerbate the fragility, both domestic and international, that triggered the turmoil. If it fails, the US and, perhaps, much of the rest of the world could well suffer a prolonged period of economic weakness.

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The Bank must keep its nerve

Fri, 25 Jan 2008 05:00:00 GMT

A medium-term inflation target provides a clear objective for policy and so the best chance of avoiding recession. To change ships in the midst of a storm would be a catastrophic blunder.

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Why the global financial turmoil is like an elephant in a dark room

Tue, 22 Jan 2008 05:00:00 GMT

For one person it feels like a snake; for another a leathery sail. A third says a tree trunk. A fourth a pull rope. Explanations for what has happened to the world economy are just as diverse. The accurate story is that it is a combination of the various elements.

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Regulators should intervene in bankers' pay

Wed, 16 Jan 2008 05:00:00 GMT

The regulatory net should cover all systemically important financial institutions. The question the authorities need to ask themselves is simple: if a specific institution fell into substantial difficulty would they have to intervene?

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Why sterling is the next dollar

Fri, 11 Jan 2008 05:00:00 GMT

Policymakers must focus on preserving credibly low inflation, essential if a retreat of the pound is not to become a rout, argues Martin Wolf.

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Challenges for the world's divided economy

Wed, 09 Jan 2008 05:00:00 GMT

The health of the global economy demands the survival of an open world. Whether the present crisis proves a blip or the end of an era depends on whether openness survives, says Martin Wolf

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The dangers of living in a zero-sum world economy

Tue, 18 Dec 2007 05:00:00 GMT

It is vital for hopes of peace to sustain the positive-sum world economy in which everybody can become better off, but no less vital to tackle the environmental challenges it has thrown up. The condition for success is investment in human ingenuity, argues Martin Wolf

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A stress-test for Britain's economy

Fri, 14 Dec 2007 05:00:00 GMT

The Bank of England must not abandon all caution. It will be able to rescue the real economy if and only if low inflation remains believable, suggests Martin Wolf

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The helicopters start to drop money

Thu, 13 Dec 2007 05:00:00 GMT

The money to be dropped by central banks now is not that large. But if this does not work, argues Martin Wolf, more will surely follow

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Why the credit squeeze is a turning point for the world

Wed, 12 Dec 2007 05:00:00 GMT

The credit crisis may be just as important a watershed for financial markets and the world economy as the emerging market financial crises of 1997 and 1998 and the bubble in technology stocks that burst in 2000. Martin Wolf gathers the evidence

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Why the climate change wolf is so hard to kill off

Tue, 04 Dec 2007 05:00:00 GMT

For people to tolerate radical change in energy use, they must first be frightened and then offered a good way out. No country will deliver big cuts if the US does not. There will be no technological leaps unless the US commits resources, says Martin Wolf

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Judicial torture and the NatWest 3

Thu, 29 Nov 2007 05:00:00 GMT

That three men pleaded guilty to wire fraud does not prove they were. It demonstrates that the offers made by US prosecutors are of a kind sensible people cannot refuse, argues Martin Wolf

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Why banking remains an accident waiting to happen

Wed, 28 Nov 2007 05:00:00 GMT

What is wrong with the sector? It is too profitable, over-protected and takes risks, which is why a crisis emerges every few years. But the public sector subsidises this risk-taking, argues Martin Wolf

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Who will pick up the thread after the great unwinding?

Tue, 20 Nov 2007 05:00:00 GMT

It is plausible that the US will experience a lengthy period of sluggish growth in domestic private demand, partially offset by fiscal expansion and an improvement in net exports. The rest of the world must now become the demand engines of the world economy, argues Martin Wolf

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The big lessons from Northern Rock

Thu, 15 Nov 2007 05:00:00 GMT

The blame for the bank's vulnerability lies with its management, argues Martin Wolf

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Welcome to a world of runaway energy demand

Tue, 13 Nov 2007 05:00:00 GMT

The rest of the world wishes to enjoy the energy-intensive lifestyles that have, hitherto, been the privilege of less than a sixth of humanity. This desire has big consequences for the world's economic, strategic and environmental future, argues Martin Wolf

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Why plutocracy endangers emerging market economies

Tue, 06 Nov 2007 05:00:00 GMT

A capitalism that generates vast wealth, partly on the back of political connections, and rewards those who resist competition is likely to generate social and political drawbacks, argues Martin Wolf.

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Why immigration is hard to tackle

Thu, 01 Nov 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The British government has run a 'stealth' immigration policy. But that approach is now unworkable. Perhaps the UK should move to market compatible systems, such as auction of work permits, argues Martin Wolf.

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Biofuels: a tale of special interests and subsidies

Tue, 30 Oct 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Is it possible to justify complex and expensive subsidies, mandates and protectionist measures? No. But that does not stop people from trying.

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Rosy forecasts carry economic health warning

Tue, 23 Oct 2007 04:00:00 GMT

According to the IMF, the world is in the midst of a period of exceptional growth. While a happy outcome depends on sustained openness and monetary stability, this can no longer be ensured by developed countries alone. Emerging markets have become big players, argues Martin Wolf.

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Darling is correct on CGT

Fri, 19 Oct 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Arguments from wealthy people that they should pay less tax because they shower benefits upon us, should be treated with contempt, says Martin Wolf

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We are living in a brave new world of state capitalism

Tue, 16 Oct 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Should we be concerned that states are emerging as major owners of wealth, in particular through 'sovereign wealth funds', asks Martin Wolf.

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Diligent, dull and political

Tue, 09 Oct 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The persistence of sizeable structural overall deficits leaves the government little room to cope with bad news, argues Martin Wolf.

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Big challenges lie ahead for the emerging economies

Tue, 09 Oct 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Is the rest of the world too reliant on the US for economic growth, asks Martin Wolf.

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Britain faces its own housing risk

Thu, 04 Oct 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The impact of a correction in property prices and household spending would be negative: another Anglo-Saxon spending and debt machine would bite the dust, argues Martin Wolf.

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Securitisation: life after death

Wed, 03 Oct 2007 04:00:00 GMT

It is possible to sell complex products safely, but only for companies that demonstrably care about their reputations, argues Martin Wolf.

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Fed must weigh inflation against recession

Tue, 25 Sep 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The Federal Reserve may well have been right to be bold last week. But it cannot be foolhardy about inflation, argues Martin Wolf.

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The Bank loses a game of chicken

Thu, 20 Sep 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The Bank is concerned about the health of the economy, while the banks are concerned only about their survival. Guess who swerved first?

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From a bank run to nationalising deposits

Tue, 18 Sep 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Financial panic has hit both the public and politicians of the UK over the past week, to deliver two remarkable results.

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Challenge of rescuing world economy

Tue, 11 Sep 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The era in which the world could rely on the engine of US consumption is now at an end.

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A terrible way to treat Britain's doctors

Thu, 06 Sep 2007 04:00:00 GMT

In the old system hospitals hired senior house officers; now they are sent them like a parcel of slaves, argues Martin Wolf.

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Questions on the debt crisis

Tue, 04 Sep 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Regulation may fall between hard and impossible. It is why financial institutions must never be too big to fail.

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Central banks should not rescue fools

Tue, 28 Aug 2007 04:00:00 GMT

If some of the most powerful institutions in the world have been playing with fire, they need to feel the burns.

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Break-up of BAA is not the answer

Thu, 23 Aug 2007 04:00:00 GMT

One way to improve London airports is to price the growth of flying out of the skies. But which government would dare, asks Martin Wolf

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The Federal Reserve must prolong the party

Tue, 21 Aug 2007 04:00:00 GMT

American households must spend more than their incomes. If they fail to do so, they face the threat of recession, says Martin Wolf

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Fear makes a welcome return

Wed, 15 Aug 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Markets must regulate themselves. The only thing likely to persuade them to do so is the certainty that players will be allowed to go bust, argues Martin Wolf

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A new chancellor and a new chance

Thu, 28 Jun 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Alistair Darling has the opportunity to undo some mistakes. It will take some courage to take on the prime minister but his predecessor at the Treasury has shown it can be done

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A cynical plan for an unnecessary European treaty

Wed, 20 Jun 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The changes to be put forward in Brussels are inherently constitutional and justify a referendum, argues Martin Wolf.

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The Bank's broad money headache

Fri, 15 Jun 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Interpreting changes in stock growth is difficult and, in the UK, extremely controversial

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Villains and victims of global capital flows

Wed, 13 Jun 2007 04:00:00 GMT

There are two explanations for global capital flows: a money glut and a savings glut

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Why the Journal should not be sold to Murdoch

Mon, 11 Jun 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The WSJ is not threatened with disappearance but instead with inclusion in the world's most dynamic media empire

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Why progressive taxation is not the route to happiness

Thu, 07 Jun 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The new 'science' of happiness has failed to conquer classical Anglo-Saxon liberalism.

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The right way to respond to China's exploding surpluses

Tue, 29 May 2007 04:00:00 GMT

It is almost inconceivable that Beijing will grant what look like one-sided concessions to demands from the 'sole superpower'. That would be humiliating.

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How Russia slipped on the road to Yeltsin's new era

Tue, 24 Apr 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Yeltsin's story may then be seen as at best a partial success and at worst a gross failure. I would regard it as closer to the former.

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King's letter must lead to action

Thu, 19 Apr 2007 04:00:00 GMT

For its credibility, the monetary policy committee will have to come down hard on the UK's inflation surge, even if it means overkill on interest rates.

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The World Bank must regain the high ground

Tue, 17 Apr 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Martin Wolf discusses the demise of the bank's moral authority in its anti-corruption drive.

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How to promote employment while protecting the low-paid

Tue, 10 Apr 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The right policy is to combine openness to trade with a politically acceptable sharing of the gains in high-income countries. The challenge is huge. But it is one at which we cannot afford to fail.

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A Korean-American strand enters trade's spaghetti bowl

Tue, 03 Apr 2007 04:00:00 GMT

The US-South Korea trade deal has big dangers of fragmentation for global trade, with serious implications for businesses.

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The pain in Spain will follow years of rapid economic gain

Tue, 27 Mar 2007 04:00:00 GMT

A decade or so from today we should have a far better idea than today of how far one of Europe's hitherto most successful economies is able to thrive within the straitjacket of the currency union.

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Budget 2007: Virtues and vices of Mr Brown

Wed, 21 Mar 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Chancellor Gordon Brown's eleventh and final Budget contained apparently bold initiatives but on closer inspection it was sleight of hand to please Labour backbenchers but of modest economic benefit.

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In this brave new world, Chindia's uneven rise continues

Tue, 20 Mar 2007 04:00:00 GMT

Though the differences are striking, by looking carefully at China and India one can learn about their prospects for growth.

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