Global Guessing Weekly Podcast

GGWP 7 w/ Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov of Pytho: Human Forest Forecasting Competition Results

Sat, 03 Apr 2021 14:12:31 GMT

In this week's special episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast, Andrew and Clay are joined by Regina Joseph and Pavel Atanasov of Pytho: A boutique R&D shop that use decision science to improve predictions and decision making. Pavel and Regina discuss the method and design of their patent-pending Human Forest system which combines data-driven base rate automation and collective human insight to deliver on key objectives on which machine algorithms and human forecasters can fall short. They also talk to us about their recent forecasting competition where they put their Human Forest system to test and put human forecasters against machine models to predict COVID-19 clinical trials.

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GGWP 6 w/ Saar Wilf: What is Rootclaim, Syrian Chemical Attacks, COVID Origins, Bzigo

Sat, 27 Mar 2021 06:54:04 GMT

In the sixth episode of the Global Guessing Weekly #Podcast we sit down with Rootclaim founder Saar Wilf. Saar goes over his entrepreneurial background and discusses the story and method behind Rootclaim. In the podcast, we question Saar on some of the assumptions made by some of Rootclaim's more controversial analyses including in their Syria chemical attack analysis before Saar questions some of the assumptions in our Rootclaim-based forecast in last week's Metaculus Monday's on the origins of COVID. And that's not all! in our longest episode yet we also make predictions about aliens and discuss Bzigo, one of Saar's technology start-up companies that creates a device which detects, locates, and (one day) kills mosquitos 🦟!

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GGWP 5 - US-China Summit, New Forecasting and Geopolitics Books, North Korea Tensions

Sat, 20 Mar 2021 06:01:01 GMT

We review the new books that we've been reading on forecasting and geopolitics. We also cover the major geopolitical stories of the week, including the US-China Summit in Alaska, new North Korean tensions, and the status of US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. We also talk about what’s in store next for Global Guessing! Let us know on Twitter, Facebook, or our website if you have any comments, questions, or suggestions regarding our plans for the future of the brand!

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GGWP 2 - Israeli-Saudi Relations After Khashoggi, Korea ICBM Test in 2021?, Road to Superforecasting

Sat, 20 Mar 2021 05:59:40 GMT

Clay and Andrew are flying solo...or rather duo. In this week’s episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we chat about the most pressing news from this week in geopolitics. Then we discuss our latest Metaculus Monday article regarding normalizing Israeli-Saudi relations before doing a live prediction on Metaculus! We also cover The Good Judgement Project’s new Good Judgement Open challenges as well as talk about Marko Papic’s book Geopolitical Alpha. Tune in for a good one!

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GGWP 4 w/ Ross of ARGS - Future of Statehood, Geopolitics of the Arctic, Hybrid Warfare

Sat, 13 Mar 2021 08:05:58 GMT

Ross, founder of AR Global Security, a brand dedicated to providing news and analysis about the global security landscape, joins us this week. We discussed how the rise of cyberspace will change the future of statehood, discuss the implications of China's push for an Arctic Silk Road and what the Russia-China joint moon base means for their future relations. In a later segment, we also discuss how hybrid warfare will change the nature of conflict over the next decades, among other topics in episode 4 of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast.

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GGWP 3 - Metaculus Scoring Controversy, Future of US-China Competition, Rootclaim Intrigue

Sat, 06 Mar 2021 20:07:53 GMT

Andrew and Clay are flying solo again. In Episode 3 of GGWP, we cover the recent Metaculus scoring controversy and discuss ways to better incentivize accurate forecasts in community prediction platforms. We also reflect on the recent geopolitical events in the news, update one of our forecasts in the Middle East, and talk about a new forecasting website that has caught our attention for more than one reason.

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GGWP 1 w/ Dr. Balkan Devlen - Theory in Forecasting, Incentives, Prediction Retrospectives

Sat, 20 Feb 2021 04:59:55 GMT

For the first episode of the Global Guessing Weekly Podcast we are joined by Dr. Balkan Devlen, author, professor, and superforecaster for Good Judgement, Inc. In the episode, we discussed Dr. Devlen's introduction to quantified forecasting and his path to becoming a Superforecaster, before discussing how theories of social sciences can be incorporated into predictions, why forecasting has little presence in academia, and reflecting on past predictions–among other topics.

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