Hold Your Fire!

From Bad to Disastrous: Will Trump Escalate in Iran?

Sat, 28 Mar 2026 00:38:08 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Stephen Pomper and Michael Wahid Hanna to talk about where the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran stands, one month in. Richard first speaks with Ali about reported backchannel talks between Washington and Tehran, the two sides’ largely incompatible demands for ending the war, changes in Iran’s leadership, and the slim prospects for de-escalation as the U.S. deploys more troops to the Gulf. Next, he speaks with Yasmine about how Gulf states see the war, where their views diverge, and what kind of outcome they would like to see when the war ends. He and Mairav talk about why the war continues to enjoy broad support in Israel despite its mounting costs, and what Israeli leaders still hope to achieve. Finally, Richard speaks with Michael and Stephen about Trump’s decision-making as the conflict continues, his erratic messaging, the administration’s options and what off-ramps remain.

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For more, check out our Statement “Finding an Off-ramp in the Middle East War” and our Middle East & North Africa page.

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Is Cuba Next?

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 17:50:46 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Crisis Group’s Latin America director, Renata Segura and senior policy director, Ivan Briscoe, about what the Trump administration is trying to achieve in Cuba and recent developments in Venezuela. They discuss Washington’s pressure campaign on Cuba, the effects of the U.S. oil blockade, popular frustration on the island and the inner workings of the Cuban regime and the reported talks between Washington and figures within the Cuban regime. They also look at Venezuela, what has changed since Nicolás Maduro’s capture, what is happening with oil revenues and whether the country is moving toward political reform. They assess how the rest of Latin America is reacting to Trump. They ask whether military action against Cuba is a real possibility, and whether a compromise short of full regime change would satisfy Washington and hardline Cuban-Americans.

For more, check out our Q&A “Hunger in Havana: Can the U.S. Cutoff Bring Change to Cuba?” and our Latin America & Caribbean page.

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Escalation or off-Ramp in the Gulf? And What Hope for a Ceasefire in Lebanon?

Sat, 14 Mar 2026 13:47:29 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Lebanon expert David Wood and former Crisis Group President Rob Malley. Richard first talks with David about the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, why Hezbollah decided to launch attacks after the U.S.-Israel war on Iran began, Israel’s war aims in Lebanon and prospects for a ceasefire. Richard then turns to Rob to discuss the U.S.-Israel campaign against Iran, how closely Washington and Israel are aligned in their objectives, whether Iran is pacing itself for a drawn-out conflict, and how Gulf states are reacting as they look for ways to bring the war to an end. They also discuss the danger of further escalation, possible pathways out of the conflict and lessons from years of failed diplomacy with Iran.

For more, check out Rob’s article in The New York Times, “Of Course Trump Bombed Iran”, our commentary “A Sprawling Middle East War Explodes” and our Middle East page.

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Operation Epic Folly? Trump’s and Netanyahu’s War on Iran

Sat, 07 Mar 2026 00:09:37 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein and Michael Wahid Hanna to talk about how the U.S.-Israel war with Iran is unfolding and what might be next. Richard first speaks with Ali about what is happening inside Iran amid internet blackouts and heavy bombardment, debates around Iran’s leadership and Ali Khamenei’s succession, calculations in Tehran and the risks of state collapse. Next, Richard speaks with Yasmine about Iran’s continued missile and drone attacks on Gulf countries and how Gulf capitals weigh the dangers of escalation against the risks of Iran collapsing. He then speaks with Mairav about Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategy, how Israelis are experiencing and viewing the war, and Israel’s renewed operations in Lebanon alongside the Iran campaign. Finally, he speaks with Michael about Washington’s murky motives for entering the war, the lack of domestic support for the campaign, debates about whether Netanyahu dragged U.S. President Donald Trump into war and potential off-ramps.

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For more, check out our last episode “Regime Change or Regional War? U.S. and Israel Kill Iran’s Supreme Leader” our Iran page.

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Special Episode: Regime Change or Regional War? U.S. and Israel Kill Iran’s Supreme Leader

Sun, 01 Mar 2026 22:51:25 GMT

In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran director Ali Vaez and Gulf and Arabian Peninsula director Yasmin Farouk to discuss the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, the regional fallout, and what could come next. Richard first speaks with Ali about the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and what it means for Tehran’s leadership and decision-making. They assess the damage to Iran’s missile capabilities, the risks posed by its remaining nuclear stockpile, and escalation dynamics as Iran retaliates against Israel and countries in the Gulf. Richard then speaks with Yasmine about how Gulf states are responding, their concerns about escalation and the “day after” in Iran, and their anger at Iran’s barrage of missiles and drones.

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For more, check out our Iran page.

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Will Ethiopia and Eritrea Start a Regional War?

Sat, 28 Feb 2026 11:43:48 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group Africa director Murithi Mutiga about rising Ethiopia–Eritrea tensions and the growing risk of another war in the Horn of Africa. They discuss how political divisions in Tigray and Ethiopia’s push for Red Sea access are sharpening fault lines between Addis Ababa and Asmara. They examine how Gulf and Middle Eastern rivalries could shape any Ethiopia–Eritrea confrontation and increase the risk of wider regional conflagration, including the danger of spillover from Sudan’s war. They also explore how global political shifts are playing out in Africa, reactions to U.S. President Donald Trump’s “Board of Peace” and the prospects for coalitions of mid-sized Western and non-Western powers to act collectively.

For more, check out our briefing, “Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: A Powder Keg in the Horn of Africa”, and our Ethiopia-Eritrea page.

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A Transport Route to Peace in the South Caucasus?

Fri, 20 Feb 2026 22:36:36 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Joshua Kucera, Crisis Group’s senior South Caucasus analyst, about progress in Armenia-Azerbaijan peace talks, U.S. involvement and shifting regional politics. They discuss U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance’s recent visit to Yerevan and Baku, why Washington got involved and U.S. efforts to broker agreement on the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) – a proposed transit corridor linking mainland Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan through southern Armenia. They talk about whether the corridor could move forward even without a fully ratified peace deal and examine the remaining sticking points. They also assess Türkiye’s expanding role in the region, Iran’s concerns about the corridor, Russia’s waning influence and European policy. They examine why the Trump administration’s peacemaking appears to have been more successful in the South Caucasus than elsewhere.

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For more, check out Joshua’s recent Analyst’s Notebook, “Vance Visit Reaffirms U.S. Push to End Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict” and our Armenian-Azerbaijani Conflict page.

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Phase Two in Gaza?

Sat, 07 Feb 2026 15:31:31 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Amjad Iraqi, Mairav Zonszein and Max Rodenbeck about President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace and its implications for Gaza. They unpack the structure of the board’s different layers, how Palestinians are reacting to the new Palestinian technocratic Gaza committee and what that committee will do. They look at conditions on the ground in Gaza amid frequent ceasefire violations and Hamas’s continued hold of parts of the strip. They also assess the obstacles to moving the peace plan forward, including working out agreement on the sequencing of Hamas decommissioning weapons, on one hand, and Israeli withdrawing troops and letting in reconstruction aid on the other, as well as the still-uncertain prospects for an international stabilisation force in the strip.

For more, check out our recent episodes “Norway’s FM Espen Barth Eide on Greenland, Iran, Trump’s Board of Peace and other crises”, “The Greenland Showdown and Board of Peace at Davos” and our Israel/Palestine page.

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Norway’s FM Espen Barth Eide on Greenland, Iran, Trump’s Board of Peace and other crises

Sat, 31 Jan 2026 01:18:05 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Norway’s Foreign Minister, Espen Barth Eide. They discuss the latest U.S.-Europe tensions over Greenland, Arctic security and Europe’s approach to Washington. They then turn to prospects for a peace deal in Ukraine and what security guarantees might look like. They examine President Trump’s newly announced “Board of Peace” and its implications for Gaza, the danger of another round of U.S. strikes on Iran, the U.S. raid that seized Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro and the outlook for political change in Venezuela. Finally, they reflect on the role of middle powers in a fragmenting world.

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For more, check out our last episode, The Greenland Showdown and Board of Peace at Davos and our Multilateral Diplomacy page.

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The Greenland Showdown and Board of Peace at Davos

Sat, 24 Jan 2026 02:53:08 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Richard Gowan, Olga Oliker and Steve Pomper about U.S. President Donald Trump’s new Board of Peace and whether the transatlantic crisis over Greenland is over.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts, Richard Gowan, Olga Oliker and Steve Pomper and Richard Gowan to discuss the transatlantic strains over President Donald Trump’s bid to acquire Greenland and his push to expand the mandate of his Board of Peace. He first speaks with Richard to discuss the Board of Peace–originally approved by the UN to oversee Gaza’s administration and reconstruction, but now accompanied by a charter suggesting a wider global mandate and a potential challenge to the UN system. They discuss how the board is viewed at the UN and beyond, who is signing up, what it could deliver in Gaza and whether it may accelerate the erosion of traditional multilateral institutions. Richard then speaks with Olga and Steve about what a rupture in the transatlantic alliance would mean for Ukraine and European security more broadly, and how European leaders can manage their volatile relationship with Washington.

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For more, check out our Q&A “Waiting at Davos: U.S. Allies Wrestle with Trump’s Threats to Greenland”, our Analyst’s Notebook “Trump Proposes a Bypass to the UN Security Council”, and our “Multilateral Diplomacy” page.

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What Next for Iran?

Fri, 16 Jan 2026 11:45:37 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran Director Ali Vaez to discuss the wave of nationwide protests in Iran and what the unrest could mean for the Islamic Republic’s future. They look at what’s behind the protests, what is known about the situation on the ground amid an information blackout and the regime’s brutal crackdown, with a death toll that authorities themselves put in the thousands. They unpack the public anger at the regime, debates over who could rally an opposition, and calls for a referendum and a new constitutional order. They also assess President Donald Trump’s options, including the possibility of U.S. strikes, the risks of escalation or state collapse in Iran, and whether any viable path exists toward political change.

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For more, check out our latest statement “Iran in Crisis: Time for a Change from Within” and our Iran page.

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From Venezuela to Greenland? Trump’s Gunboat Diplomacy

Sat, 10 Jan 2026 03:31:06 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Stephen Pomper about the fallout from the U.S. operation capturing Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Washington’s push for oil concessions, and the future U.S. Western hemisphere policy.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Renata Segura, Crisis Group’s Latin America & Caribbean director, and chief of policy Stephen Pomper, about the fallout from the U.S. operation last weekend seizing Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro. They unpack how the Chavista government is holding together under pressure from the Trump administration to give up control of Venezuelan oil. They examine what’s driving the Trump administration's action in Venezuela and whether a democratic transition is realistically on the horizon. They also explore what precedent the operation sets for Cuba and countries across Latin America, the administration’s sharpening rhetoric around Greenland, and what all this signals about a more openly revisionist U.S. approach to the post–World War II order.

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For more, check out our statement “Venezuela after Maduro: Transaction or Transition?”, this week’s special episode “What Next for Venezuela?” and our Venezuela page.

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Special Episode: What Next for Venezuela?

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 15:32:16 GMT

This week, in a special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Caracas-based senior Andes region analyst Phil Gunson to unpack the U.S. military operation in Venezuela that led to the capture of President Nicolás Maduro and to assess what may come next. They examine how the operation unfolded, how it was experienced inside Venezuela, and the government’s initial response. They discuss Vice President Delcy Rodríguez’s assumption of power and whether Washington may be willing to work with a Maduro-less but still Chavista government to secure oil concessions rather than pursue full regime change. They talk about what Trump meant when he said the U.S. would “run” Venezuela. They also explore the weakened state of the opposition, the role of the military and armed groups, regional reactions, and the prospects for resolving Venezuela’s political crisis.

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Trump Brokers Rwanda-DR Congo Deal, Rwandan-backed Rebels Advance

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 14:46:50 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Richard Moncrieff about the Rwanda-backed M23’s advance into Uvira in eastern DR Congo and where the war and the diplomacy to end it might be headed. They discuss what’s driving the group’s latest offensive, what governance looks like in M23-held areas, its reliance on Rwanda, and its ambitions through its political arm, the Congo River Alliance (or AFC). They then examine President Félix Tshisekedi’s resilience despite battlefield setbacks, Burundi’s deepening involvement, and rising tensions with Rwanda. Finally, they unpack the mediation tracks led by Qatar and the U.S., President Donald Trump’s dealmaking, the value of its business elements and prospects for reaching at least a durable ceasefire.

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Fighting on the Cambodia-Thailand Border

Sat, 13 Dec 2025 15:56:17 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Matthew Wheeler, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Southeast Asia, about the renewed clashes along the Thailand-Cambodia border. They explore the origins of the long-running dispute and the triggers for the latest round of fighting, which has shattered a ceasefire reached in Malaysia in late July and displaced more than half a million people. They examine calculations in Bangkok and Phnom Penh, the rising nationalist sentiment in Thailand, and the fallout from a leaked phone call between then-Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Cambodia’s de facto leader Hun Sen in June. They also assess diplomacy to end the fighting, Malaysia’s mediation, and President Donald Trump’s role in brokering the July truce. As fighting continues despite Trump’s claim to have forged another ceasefire, they discuss why a quick de-escalation looks less likely this time around.

For more, check out Matthew’s analyst’s notebook, “Ceasefire Collapses as Heavy Fighting Erupts along Cambodia-Thailand Border”, as well as our Cambodia and Thailand pages.

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UN stamps Trump plan, Gaza in Limbo, Saudi Crown Prince in Washington

Sat, 22 Nov 2025 17:06:10 GMT

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At Home and Away: President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Year in Power in Syria

Mon, 17 Nov 2025 09:37:27 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Dareen Khalifa, Crisis Group’s senior adviser for dialogue promotion, to discuss Syria’s transition after the fall of the Assad regime and the political evolution of President Ahmed al-Sharaa. They talk about al-Sharaa’s recent trip to the White House and Washington’s evolving Syria policy and sanctions relief. They examine how life has changed under Syria’s new leadership and the daunting task the authorities face in unifying the country’s armed groups, including efforts to integrate the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the north east. They also delve into outbreaks of sectarian violence in Alawite and Druze-majority areas, concerns about the political transition’s inclusiveness and Syria’s complicated relations with Israel. Finally, they trace al-Sharaa’s evolution from his militant past to the Syrian presidency and discuss whether domestic headwinds could derail his achievements on the world stage.

For more, check out our Syria page.

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Election Standoff Grips Cameroon and Jihadists Squeeze Mali’s Capital

Sat, 08 Nov 2025 00:59:32 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Cameroon expert Arrey E. Ntui and Sahel director Jean-Hervé Jézéquel. Richard first talks with Arrey about the fallout from Cameroon’s disputed elections, growing public anger toward President Paul Biya – the world’s oldest serving head of state – and opposition protests. They also assess how the political crisis might affect Cameroon’s long-running Anglophone conflict and risks for further escalation. Richard then turns to Jean-Herve to discuss the blockade imposed by the militant group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), which has cut off fuel supplies to the capital Bamako. They examine why the military has struggled to secure key supply roads, whether the blockade signals a shift in JNIM’s strategy, how it might shape public sentiment toward Mali’s military rulers and whether the blockade paves the way for a jihadist takeover.

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For more, check out our Cameroon and Mali pages.

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Drug War or Regime Change? Trump’s Venezuela and Western Hemisphere Policy

Fri, 31 Oct 2025 18:43:17 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group experts Phil Gunson and Renata Segura about U.S. military build-up off Venezuela’s coast, strikes on alleged drug smuggling boats and whether Washington could depose Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Venezuela and Andes expert Phil Gunson and Latin America & Caribbean director Renata Segura about the escalating tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela. They assess the large-scale military build-up off Venezuela’s coast, officially framed as a counter-narcotics operation but widely seen as part of a broader campaign to pressure Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. They unpack U.S. strikes on suspected drug smuggling boats and how effective such measures are in curbing the narcotics trade. They talk about the evolution of U.S. policy toward Venezuela, divisions within Donald Trump’s team over policy and how Venezuelans view the latest escalation. They look at the role of Venezuela’s military and armed groups and how they might respond to foreign intervention. Finally, they consider Washington’s next steps and assess Trump’s approach to the Western hemisphere more broadly and how Latin American leaders view his policies.

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For more, check out our statement “Beware the Slide Toward Regime Change in Venezuela” and our Latin America & Caribbean regional page.

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Special Episode: What Does the RSF’s Seizure of El Fasher Mean for Sudan’s War?

Wed, 29 Oct 2025 12:33:46 GMT

In this update episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn director Alan Boswell about the paramilitary RSF capturing North Dafur’s capital El Fasher, the reports of horrific violence in the city and the implications for the trajectory of Sudan’s war. They discuss how the RSF managed to take control of the city after a siege of more than a year and the situation in El Fasher now amid a worsening humanitarian crisis and reports of mass killings of civilians. They discuss the de facto partition of Sudan with the RSF now controlling most of western Sudan and the army holding the capital Khartoum and the east. They also explore whether the capture of El Fasher may derail U.S.-led efforts to broker a ceasefire.

For more, check out our recent episode Can a U.S.-Arab Roadmap Stop Sudan’s War? And our Sudan country page.

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What’s Next for the Houthis in Yemen?

Sat, 25 Oct 2025 04:18:39 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group Yemen expert Ahmed Nagi about what the ceasefire in Gaza means for the Israel-Houthi conflict, risks of further attacks in the Red Sea and the future of the intra-Yemeni peace process.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Yemen expert, Ahmed Nagi, to discuss where the Israel-Houthi conflict may be headed after the ceasefire in Gaza. They examine the Houthis’ attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, which the group links to Israel’s assault on Gaza. They assess Israel’s recent attacks in Yemen that killed senior Houthi political and military figures, and how the group is adapting. They also unpack the Houthis’ ties to Tehran, as they have become the most capable actor within Iran’s “axis of resistance”, as well as the group’s sharper rhetoric against Saudi Arabia in recent weeks. Finally, they discuss the standoff between the Houthis and its Yemeni rivals, the state of the internationally recognised government under the Presidential Leadership Council, risks of renewed conflict, and prospects for reviving intra-Yemeni talks.

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For more, check out our Yemen country pages.

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Another South Asia Cross-Border Crisis: Afghan and Pakistani Forces Clash

Sat, 18 Oct 2025 00:39:03 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Afghanistan expert Ibraheem Bahiss and South Asia director Samina Ahmed about clashes this week between Afghan and Pakistani forces. Richard first speaks with Ibraheem about what triggered the latest confrontation, including reported Pakistani strikes on Pakistani militants, the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), in Kabul and in border regions. They trace the strained relations between Kabul and Islamabad and why the Taliban authorities struggle to address Pakistan’s concerns – with Islamabad accusing the Kabul authorities of sheltering the TTP and allowing cross-border attacks – even as they have reined in other foreign militants. Richard then turns to Samina to discuss the spike in militant violence in Pakistan’s western regions, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, how Islamabad views possible rapprochement between the Taliban and India, Islamabad’s broader foreign relations – including a defence pact with Saudi Arabia and warmer ties to Washington – and the risk of further clashes.

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For more, check out our Afghanistan and Pakistan country pages.

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Can a U.S.-Arab Roadmap Stop Sudan’s War?

Sat, 11 Oct 2025 00:44:39 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael, Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell and Gulf & Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk about the latest shifts in Sudan’s war and recent diplomatic efforts. They chart recent battlefield developments, including the situation in El Fasher in northern Darfur, where fighting between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) is particularly intense amid a worsening humanitarian crisis. They examine how the balance of power between the warring parties is evolving, the interests of outside actors supplying arms, and the RSF’s push to establish a parallel government. They also look at diplomatic efforts to end the war, including the recent announcement by the U.S., Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, known as the Quad, outlining a roadmap for peace in Sudan, how the RSF and the Sudanese army are responding, and what the initiative can realistically achieve.

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For more, check out our recent Q&A “All Eyes on the Quad: How the U.S. and Its Partners Can Push for Peace in Sudan”, Alan’s Foreign Affairs piece “Sudan’s War Is the Shape of Things to Come” and our Sudan page.

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Special Episode: Rob Malley on Gaza, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the wider Middle East

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 02:20:29 GMT

In this Special Episode of Hold Your Fire!, two years of war in Gaza after Hamas’s 7 October attacks, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s former president and former U.S. Special Envoy to Iran and official in several previous U.S. administrations, Rob Malley. They discuss Trump’s peace plan for Gaza, Hamas’ reaction to the proposal and where things might be headed next. They discuss Rob’s new book, co-authored with Hussein Agha, “Tomorrow Is Yesterday: Life, Death and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel-Palestine”, which traces the collapse of the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and the two-state solution, potential missed opportunities, and whether Washington or others could ever have clinched a peace agreement. They discuss the unravelling of Iran’s “axis of resistance” and what, if anything, could deter Israel from continuing to pursue its objectives by force. Finally, Richard reflects with Rob on what it means to be both an insider and an outsider in policymaking.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out Rob’s new book, co-authored with Hussein Agha, “Tomorrow Is Yesterday: Life, Death, and the Pursuit of Peace in Israel/Palestine”, our last episode “What to Make of Trump’s Gaza Plan?” and our Israel/Palestine page.

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What to Make of Trump’s Gaza Plan?

Sun, 05 Oct 2025 01:24:54 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Crisis Group experts Michael Hanna, Max Rodenbeck, Amjad Iraqi and Mairav Zonszein about Donald Trump’s proposed Gaza peace plan, who might benefit from it, the many uncertainties it raises, and what it could mean for Gaza’s future.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Michael Hanna, Max Rodenbeck, Amjad Iraqi and Mairav Zonszein about President Donald Trump’s new 20-point proposal to end the war in Gaza. They unpack how the plan emerged and the external pressure surrounding it, against the backdrop of Israel’s 9 September strike in Doha targeting Hamas leaders, its ongoing ground offensive in Gaza City, and the humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in the strip. They discuss what the proposal entails, who might benefit, the key uncertainties around its provisions and timeline, how Palestinians are reacting, and what it could mean for future governance in Gaza and for easing the humanitarian crisis. They also discuss responses inside Israel, including among Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right coalition partners, and how Arab and European capitals, having already thrown their support behind the plan, should move forward. The episode was recorded before Hamas responded to the plan.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our recent Q&A “Can the World Make Recognition of Palestine’s Statehood Matter?” and our Israel/Palestine page.

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What to Make of Trump’s Ukraine Diplomacy?

Sat, 27 Sep 2025 02:31:17 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Lucian Kim, Olga Oliker, and Stephen Pomper about battlefield developments in Ukraine, the Trump administration's diplomatic efforts to end the war, and what might lie ahead.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Ukraine expert Lucian Kim, Europe director Olga Oliker and chief of policy Stephen Pomper. They unpack recent developments along Ukraine’s frontlines and the role of drones. They discuss President Trump’s August meeting with President Putin in Alaska, the Trump team’s mixed messages on what kind of deal Russia and Ukraine might be willing to accept, and what to make of Trump’s rhetoric at the UN General Assembly. They also look at the mood in Ukraine and the recent controversy over a bill that would have curbed anti-corruption agencies. Finally, they touch on Russian incursions into the airspace of NATO countries, whether Moscow might further test NATO’s resolve and the future of European security.

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For more, check out our commentary Beyond the Ukraine Summits: Five Realities after Three Years of War and our Ukraine country page.

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The UN’s Uncertain Future

Fri, 19 Sep 2025 23:42:47 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Richard Gowan about what to expect from this year’s UN General Assembly High-Level Week. They discuss the mood at the UN as the second Trump administration both finds its feet at the world body and makes drastic funding cuts, forcing the UN to scale back humanitarian operations and lay off thousands of staff in New York and agencies. They examine the conflicts likely to dominate the agenda, including mounting global fury at Israel’s assault on Gaza, shifting global views on Russia’s war in Ukraine, the conflict in Sudan, and the challenges of Syria’s new government in its dealings with the UN. Finally, they consider the future of UN peacekeeping and whether the organisation can endure as much of the post-1945 multilateral order unravels.

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For More, check out our latest briefing Ten Challenges for the UN in 2025-2026, our Updates from the UN General Assembly 2025 and our Multilateral Diplomacy page.

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The DR Congo-Rwanda Deal, Trump’s Mediation and African Politics

Sat, 05 Jul 2025 14:09:57 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa program director, to discuss the DR Congo-Rwanda deal, U.S. peacemaking in Africa and elsewhere, and how revisionist leadership could impact the continent. They unpack the U.S. and Qatar-brokered peace deal, its minerals component and the pitfalls in the Trump administration’s mediation style, also looking at diplomacy in other hotspots. They also discuss Sudan’s civil war and whether Trump’s illiberal dealmaking might offer a way out. They examine simmering tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea and what renewed war between them would mean for an already tumultuous region. Finally, they look at how revisionist leaders in Africa may be emboldened by a broader global trend of achieving goals through force, how Africans view Trump’s second term policy so far and how it compares to Chinese engagement in Africa.

For more, check out The Horn podcast episode “The New Scramble for Peace (and Minerals) in DR Congo” and our Africa page.

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A Twelve-Day War, A New Middle East?

Sat, 28 Jun 2025 00:20:25 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Max Rodenbeck and Michael Hanna about the uneasy truce between Israel and Iran after twelve days of war and what it means for the region.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined once more by Crisis Group experts, Ali Vaez, Yasmine Farouk, Mairav Zonszein, Max Rodenbeck and Michael Hanna to discuss the uneasy truce between Israel and Iran after twelve days of war and what might follow. Richard first talks with Ali about the extent of damage U.S. strikes may have inflicted on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and incentives for Washington and Tehran to reengage diplomatically. Next, Richard and Yasmine examine how the conflict has affected relations between Gulf Arab capitals and Tehran, and how Gulf states are adapting to a rapidly shifting region. Richard then turns to Mairav and Max to assess how Israel’s leadership views the outcome of the war and whether it can translate military into political gains. Finally, Richard talks to Michael about what’s next for American policy in the Middle East.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our Iran page.

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Special Episode: “Totally Obliterated”? Trump’s Iran Strikes and What Iran Might Do Now

Mon, 23 Jun 2025 09:24:51 GMT

In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran director Ali Vaez and Gulf and Arabian Peninsula director Yasmine Farouk to discuss the U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. They assess what is known about the damage at the nuclear sites and how far the attacks might have set back Iran’s nuclear program. They unpack why diplomatic efforts to prevent escalation have broken down and how Gulf Arab capitals view the situation. They also talk through Iran’s options to respond and whether there’s still a path back to diplomacy.

For more, check out our latest Hold Your Fire! episode, “Will he? Won’t he? The Trump Iran Show”, and our Iran page.

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Will he? Won’t he? The Trump Iran Show

Sat, 21 Jun 2025 15:30:10 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts, Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein, Max Rodenbeck, Yasmine Farouk and Michael Hanna to discuss the escalating Israel-Iran conflict. Richard first talks with Ali about how Iranians are experiencing the conflict, the damage Israeli strikes have inflicted on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, missile program and military leadership, and whether Iran’s regime might offer concessions to end the war. Richard then turns to Mairav and Max to discuss Israeli public sentiment and Prime Minister Netanyahu’s objectives in Iran. With Yasmine, he explores how Gulf Arab states view the war. Finally, Richard talks with Michael about President Donald Trump’s shift from opposing Israeli strikes on Iran to seemingly supporting them, divisions within his base over the U.S. joining the war, and whether Washington will bomb or can still find a diplomatic off-ramp.

For more, check out our latest statement, “How Trump and Tehran Can Find an Eleventh-hour Exit from an Escalating War” and our Iran page.

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Military Rulers and Jihadist Rebels in the Sahel

Sat, 14 Jun 2025 11:39:52 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s president, Comfort Ero, and Sahel director Jean-Hervé Jezequel. He first speaks with Comfort about her recent visit to Mali’s capital, Bamako, and her reflections on the diverging political trajectories of Sahelian countries. Richard then turns to Jean-Hervé for a closer look at Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, which formed the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) after breaking away from the regional bloc ECOWAS last year. They examine the sovereignty narrative promoted by the military regimes and the risk of growing public frustration as economic and security conditions stagnate. They also talk about the jihadist coalition JNIM, which has stepped up attacks on towns and cities in the region. They explore the group’s goals, leadership and the, for now, seemingly remote prospect of talks as military leaders prioritise military operations. Finally, they touch on how the AES countries’ foreign relations may evolve amid shifting regional dynamics.

For more, check out our EU Watchlist entry “Defining a New Approach to the Sahel’s Military-led States” and our Sahel project page.

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Special Episode: Israel Strikes Iran

Fri, 13 Jun 2025 18:19:41 GMT

In this special episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks with Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran project director, about Israel’s strikes on Iran, which badly damaged nuclear and military sites and killed senior military officials. They discuss the scale of the attacks and their aims, focusing on whether they were primarily about setting back Iran’s nuclear program or weakening its regime. They also talk through how Iran might respond and what further escalation would look like. They explore how the crisis may affect nuclear diplomacy between Washington and Tehran and what options the Trump administration and Middle East actors may have to prevent the situation from spiralling further out of control.

For more, check out our Iran country page.

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Bomb the Cartels? Expel the Migrants? Reboot Monroe? Trump and Latin America

Sat, 07 Jun 2025 00:40:35 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Renata Segura and Ivan Briscoe about the Trump administration’s Latin America policy, responses from the region and the future of Washington’s influence.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Latin America Program Director Renata Segura and Senior Policy Director Ivan Briscoe to look at how the Trump administration is recalibrating U.S. policy toward Latin America. They examine ideological divisions within Trump’s team between officials promoting a confrontational stance toward states like Venezuela and more pragmatic, transactional elements focused on curbing migration and drug flows. They also explore Washington’s approaches to regional hotspots, including Haiti, and assess how Latin American leaders are adjusting their strategies in reaction to shifting U.S. policies. Finally, they discuss the future of U.S. influence in a region where China is increasingly viewed as an important partner.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our Latin America & Caribbean program page.

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Bonus Episode: The New Scramble for Peace (and Minerals) in DR Congo

Fri, 30 May 2025 17:10:42 GMT

Today, we're bringing you a bonus episode on DR Congo from Crisis Group's The Horn podcast.

In this episode, Alan Boswell is joined by Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group’s Great Lakes project director, to discuss the state of the war in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. They discuss the extent of the Rwanda-backed M23’s territorial gains in eastern Congo and why the group’s military advances halted. They discuss Rwanda’s motives and objectives, the state of Rwanda-Burundi relations, and Uganda’s positioning inside Congo. They also delve into how the crisis has affected President Félix Tshisekedi’s grip on power and the re-emergence of former President Joseph Kabila as an opposition figure. Finally, they discuss why the various African peace initiatives lost steam, the new Qatari and American peace efforts, and how to analyse this new era of peacemaking.

For more, check out Richard’s recent Analyst’s Notebook entry “A New Great Lakes Peace Pledge Marks Progress but Questions Remain” and our DR Congo country page.

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Netanyahu Against the World? Anger Mounts over Gaza’s Starvation

Sat, 24 May 2025 10:50:08 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s experts Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi, Max Rodenbeck and Rob Blecher to discuss Israel’s new ground offensive in Gaza and its contentious efforts to take over control of aid distribution amid a deepening humanitarian crisis. Richard first speaks to Mairav, Amjad and Max about “Operation Gideon’s Chariots”, Israel’s military campaign that appears aimed at fragmenting Gaza territorially while linking military operations to the management of humanitarian aid. They examine how the war is affecting Israel’s domestic politics and whether public sentiment is shifting. They also discuss how the war has affected Israel’s international standing, with European leaders voicing growing criticism of Israel’s conduct. Richard then turns to Rob to take a closer look at Israel’s aid distribution plan and its reported aim to provide only minimal levels of food after months of blockade, despite most Palestinians in Gaza already facing severe hunger.

For more, check out our recent statement “Saving Gaza from Starvation” our Analyst’s Notebook entry “The Vanishing Line between Starvation and Famine in Gaza” and our Israel/Palestine page.

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Until Next Time? The India-Pakistan Truce

Sat, 17 May 2025 00:45:25 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Praveen Donthi, Samina Ahmed, and Pierre Prakash about the India-Pakistan ceasefire after days of clashes sparked by militant attacks in Kashmir and how to prevent the next crisis from spiralling out of control.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s India expert Praveen Donthi, South Asia Project Director Samina Ahmed, and Asia Program Director Pierre Prakash to discuss the ceasefire between India and Pakistan, which followed days of intense clashes between the nuclear-armed neighbours. Richard first speaks with Praveen about the mood in India following the ceasefire and its investigation into the late-April attack in India-administered Kashmir that killed 26 tourists – an assault India blames on Pakistan-sponsored militants and which triggered last week’s brief war. With Samina, they unpack the view from Pakistan, the toll the fighting took across the country, and safeguards the two sides can put in place to prevent future crises from escalating. Finally, Richard talks with Pierre about what diplomacy over Kashmir and tensions between India and Pakistan might entail and why South Asia deserves greater outside attention.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our India-Pakistan (Kashmir) page.

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Trump in the Gulf

Sat, 10 May 2025 00:38:02 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Yasmine Farouk, Ali Vaez and Michael Wahid Hanna about U.S. President Donald Trump’s forthcoming trip to the Gulf and how much the Iran nuclear talks, the Gaza war and other regional crises will feature on the agenda.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Michael Wahid Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program Director, Yasmine Farouk, Gulf and Arabian Peninsula Director, and Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director, to discuss U.S. President Donald Trump’s forthcoming visit to the Gulf. They unpack Washington’s priorities for the trip, the role regional peace and security might play in Trump’s discussions with Gulf Arab leaders, and what Riyadh and other capitals hope to get from his visit. They assess the state of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, the incentives on both sides to reach a deal, and obstacles to diplomacy. They also examine other issues that might feature in Trump’s discussions in the Gulf, including Israel’s new war plans and the humanitarian disaster in Gaza, sanctions relief for Syria and the war in Sudan.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our Gulf and Arabian Peninsula regional page.

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What Hope Do the Ceasefire Proposal and Minerals Deal Offer Ukraine?

Sat, 03 May 2025 01:11:14 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia Director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to discuss Donald Trump’s ceasefire proposal for Ukraine. They unpack what is known about the U.S. proposal and its potential implications, including the prospects of U.S. recognition of Russia’s claim to the Crimean Peninsula and Kyiv agreeing not to pursue membership in NATO. They examine Ukraine and its European backers’ counterproposal and the U.S. response, and Moscow’s position. They also explore Washington’s negotiating tactics, including its threat to withdraw from the talks if an agreement isn’t reached soon, and the minerals deal between the U.S. and Ukraine. Finally, they discuss the likelihood of Russia agreeing to a ceasefire given Putin’s belief he has the battlefield advantage, and whether Moscow’s position on negotiations to end the war has shifted.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our recent statement “Deal or No Deal, a Basis for Talks about Peace in Ukraine” and our Ukraine country page.

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Will Myanmar’s Devastating Earthquake Impact its Civil War?

Fri, 04 Apr 2025 18:51:30 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey about the devastating earthquake that struck Myanmar last week, challenges facing relief efforts and implications for the country’s civil war and its military leaders.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey to discuss the aftermath of the earthquake that struck central Myanmar last Friday. They examine the devastation in Myanmar’s second largest city, Mandalay, and other hard-hit areas, how U.S. aid cuts have hampered the emergency response and the extent to which China and others have stepped in. They explore how Myanmar’s civil war complicates relief efforts, with the army largely absent from rescue operations, and whether the disaster might impact military leader Min Aung Hlaing’s grip on power. They also unpack the evolving policies of Myanmar’s big neighbours, China and India, and what might break a stalemate in an increasingly intractable and neglected crisis.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our recent Q&A “Support Vital for Myanmar’s Quake Victims, Despite Military Obstacles”, our briefing “Disquiet on the Western Front: A Divided Resistance in Myanmar’s Chin State” and our Myanmar country page.

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South Sudan on the Brink of Another War

Sat, 29 Mar 2025 00:12:26 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Daniel Akech and Alan Boswell about escalating violence across South Sudan, President Salva Kiir’s dismissal of both loyalists and opposition leaders, the impact of neighbouring Sudan’s conflict and hope of averting a return to civil war in the world’s youngest country.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell and South Sudan expert Daniel Akesh to discuss the escalating violence in South Sudan. They examine what’s behind clashes between government forces and opposition-linked militias, which began in Upper Nile state before spreading to other parts of the country. They look at President Salva Kiir’s recent government shakeup, including the dismissal of both former Kiir allies and key opposition figures and rivals, most notably First Vice President Riek Machar, a co-signatory of the 2018 peace agreement. They also talk about how the war in neighbouring Sudan has compounded tensions in South Sudan and Juba’s uneasy balancing act with Sudan’s warring factions, both of which control territory along a vital oil pipeline. Finally, they discuss the muted response from outside South Sudan, what a renewed conflict could mean for regional stability and the legacy of the country’s fragile 2018 deal.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, be sure to check out our recent Alert “South Sudan on the Precipice of Renewed Full-blown War”, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and our South Sudan country page.

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Israel Goes Back to War in Gaza

Sat, 22 Mar 2025 07:48:06 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Max Rodenbeck, Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi and Michael Wahid Hanna to discuss the breakdown of the Gaza ceasefire, the likely effect on Palestinians in Gaza and the goals of both Israel’s renewed military campaign and the U.S. strikes on the Houthis in Yemen. Richard first talks to Max, Mairav and Amjad about Israel’s return to war, including its retreat from a three-phase ceasefire deal it struck with Hamas in January. They examine Israeli views of the war, including the growing public anger at the government’s handling of the hostage crisis and the resumption of the war. They also explore Hamas’s strength in Gaza, the humanitarian catastrophe in the enclave and the possible futures of governance in the strip. Richard then speaks to Michael, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program Director, about the Trump administration’s emerging Middle East policy, as the U.S. backs Israel's campaign in Gaza, strikes the Houthis in Yemen and steps up pressure on Iran, even as the president signals he wants to enter nuclear talks with Tehran.

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Trump, France and European Security

Mon, 17 Mar 2025 10:17:20 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Gérard Araud, Crisis Group Trustee and former French ambassador to the U.S., the UN and Israel. They take stock of U.S. President Donald Trump’s foreign policy so far, his administration’s seemingly competing visions for European security and how European capitals are reacting. They talk about diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, whether the Trump administration can get genuine concessions out of Russia and the prospect of European troops in Ukraine. They assess the role of France in Europe and debates around extending its nuclear umbrella to eastern Europe. They also discuss whether the Trump administration’s unorthodox diplomacy might bear fruit in the Middle East.

For more, check out our latest report “Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future” and our Europe & Central Asia Program page.

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What Does the PKK Ceasefire Mean for Türkiye, Iraq and Syria?

Sat, 08 Mar 2025 00:48:11 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group experts Berkay Mandıracı, Lahib Higel and Dareen Khalifa to discuss the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK)’s announcement of a ceasefire with Türkiye following imprisoned PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s call for the group to disarm and dissolve. They discuss the motivations behind the Turkish initiative to end the 40-year conflict with the PKK (a group designated as terrorist by Ankara and several Western capitals). They unpack how the PKK’s leadership in northern Iraq’s Qandil Mountains has reacted to Öcalan’s call and how the conflict has influenced Ankara’s relations with Baghdad. They discuss implications for north-eastern Syria, where the PKK-linked Syrian Democratic Forces have clashed with Türkiye-backed groups, whether the efforts by Syria’s new leadership to integrate the SDF into a new state structure can address Ankara’s security concerns and Israel’s potential support for the SDF. They also assess how the public in Türkiye has reacted to the latest initiative to end the conflict and where the process might be headed next.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more, check out our visual explainer “Türkiye’s PKK Conflict: A Visual Explainer”, our latest War & Peace podcast “After Assad – Implications for Türkiye in Syria and Beyond” and our Türkiye country page.

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A Decisive Turn in Sudan’s War?

Sat, 01 Mar 2025 00:25:03 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell, to discuss the Sudanese army’s military advances against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan amid a devastating humanitarian crisis. They assess what explains the shifting battlefield momentum and why an end to the conflict appears out of sight despite the RSF’s setbacks. They examine how both the army and RSF are manoeuvring for political influence, with each side laying out plans for rival governments. They also explore the role of external actors in the war, challenges facing diplomatic efforts and the implications of Washington’s potential disengagement from the region.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.

For more, be sure to check out our recent statement “Battle for Khartoum Marks a Crossroads in Sudan’s Civil War”, our briefing “Eight Priorities for the African Union in 2025” and our Sudan country page.

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U.S. and Russia Start Ukraine Talks, Transatlantic Ties Unravel

Sat, 22 Feb 2025 01:12:53 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe/Central Asia director, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to talk about talks between U.S. and Russia over the Ukraine war and the growing rift in transatlantic relations. They unpack Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth's remarks at NATO, apparently ruling out Ukraine’s return to its pre-2014 borders or NATO membership and Vice President JD Vance’s criticisms of European democracy at the Munich Security Conference. They discuss the U.S.-Russia talks in Riyadh intended to lay groundwork for further diplomacy to end the Ukraine war and what role Kyiv and Europe might play in future rounds. They assess whether European capitals can step up to shape the future of the continent's security. They also discuss dynamics within President Trump's team, what to make of his statements about the U.S.’s own territorial expansion and his attacks on Ukrainian President Vlodymyr Zelenskyy.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.

For more, check out our latest report “Ukraine and Beyond: Shaping Europe’s Security Future” and our Europe & Central Asia Program page.

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How Will Trump Deal with Iran?

Fri, 14 Feb 2025 15:35:08 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President, to talk about U.S. President Donald Trump’s Iran policy. They discuss Trump’s return to his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran even as he signals willingness for dealmaking with Tehran. They examine how Iran’s leadership views the Trump administration and whether supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s dismissive stance on diplomacy with Washington leaves any room for talks. They look at Iran’s diminished regional influence, given Israel’s hammering of Iran-backed militant groups, including Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, and Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s ouster, and whether its increased vulnerability changes its nuclear calculations. They talk about what maximum pressure might entail this time around and whether European capitals might reinstate UN sanctions on Iran, which they can still do before October as part of the 2015 nuclear deal. Finally, they assess what a diplomatic initiative to revive negotiations between the U.S. and Iran might look like and how regional powers like Saudi Arabia can help.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent EU Watchlist commentary “Test Diplomacy with a Weakened Iran” and our Iran country page.

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Trump’s Gaza Plan

Sat, 08 Feb 2025 01:02:30 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Amjad Iraqi, Michael Hanna and Rob Blecher to talk about Donald Trump’s shock proposal for Gaza and its implications for the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Richard first speaks with Mairav, Amjad and Rob about Trump’s plan, which would include relocating Palestinians out of Gaza and placing the territory under U.S. control and how it has been received among Palestinians, Israelis and worldwide. They assess progress made under the first phase of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, conditions in the strip and prospects of getting to a second phase which includes an Israeli troop withdrawal. They discuss the uptick of violence in the West Bank and the risk of Israel fully annexing the territory. Richard then talks with Michael about how Trump’s remarks on Gaza should be interpreted, as top officials appear to walk some of them back even as Trump doubles down.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.

For more, be sure to read our latest EU Watch List Commentary “Toward a Stronger European Stand on Israel-Palestine”, our statement “Understanding the Israel-Hamas Truce”, and our Israel/Palestine country page.

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Can Diplomacy Stop Rwandan-backed Rebels in the Eastern DRC?

Sat, 01 Feb 2025 01:12:39 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Great Lakes Director Richard Moncrieff to discuss the fall of Goma, the capital of DR Congo’s North Kivu province, to the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group and its implications for Kinshasa and the broader region. They unpack the rapid collapse of Congolese forces in Goma, the role of Rwandan troops in the offensive, and how the city’s residents view the M23. They look at the Rwandan army’s presence in the Kivus, Kigali’s strategic interests there and its shift from denying involvement to justifying it. They talk about DRC President Félix Tshisekedi’s political standing in Kinshasa in the wake of Goma’s fall and how he might respond. Finally, they assess the role of other African leaders and prospects for diplomacy. They also look at Rwanda’s status as a regional power player and why Western capitals have been reluctant to put more pressure on Kigali to stop meddling.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.

For more, be sure to check out our latest statement “Fall of DRC’s Goma: Urgent Action Needed to Avert a Regional War”, our EU Watch List Commentary “Turbulence in the DRC Raises Hard Questions for the EU”, and our Great Lakes regional page.

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What's Next for Syria?

Sat, 25 Jan 2025 00:57:44 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Dareen Khalifa and Nanar Hawach to discuss what’s ahead for Syria after the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. They unpack the offensive led by Hei’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and other rebels, the rapid disintegration of regime forces and Syrians’ hopes after more than a decade of war. They look at the challenges Syria’s new authorities are facing under HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa, including protecting public order, integrating the country’s fragmented rebel factions, army remnants and militias into a unified command, and steering a political transition. They look at security in central and western Syria, how minorities view Syria’s new rulers, and north-eastern Syria, where Turkish-backed groups have been battling the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). They discuss the U.S.’s role in Syria, the risk of a resurgent Islamic State and al-Sharaa’s efforts to get sanctions lifted and restore Syria’s relations with regional and Western capitals.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest commentary “Key Decisions Loom as Syria Enters a New Era” and our Syria country page.

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Trump in Africa

Fri, 29 Nov 2024 22:29:44 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga to discuss the implications of a second Trump administration for Africa. They examine how African leaders have reacted to Donald Trump’s election victory and why some might favour a more transactional Washington. They assess the Biden administration’s legacy in Africa, the shifts a second Trump administration might bring and the possible plans of outside powers jockeying on the continent for influencing Washington. They look at what Trump’s presidency could mean for hotspots in Africa, including Somalia, Sudan, the DR Congo and the Sahel, as well as the future of UN peacekeeping missions on the continent. Finally, they discuss the risk that some African states may fragment, asking whether stronger, more unified leadership might help the continent navigate the volatile world order.

For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Africa program page.

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North Korean Forces in Russia and North East Asia Security

Fri, 15 Nov 2024 18:22:24 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Kyung-wha Kang, former South Korean Foreign Minister, CEO of Asia Society and Crisis Group trustee, to discuss North Korea and Russia’s strategic partnership, potential change Donald Trump might bring to U.S.-South Korea relations and what they mean for the Korean peninsula. They talk about North Korea’s deployment of troops to Russia’s Kursk region to assist Moscow in its war against Ukraine, what Pyongyang and Moscow seek to gain from strengthening their ties and how Beijing views the relationship. They also look at how Washington’s alliance with Seoul might evolve under a second Trump presidency and what a potentially more confrontational U.S.-China policy means for the prospects for nuclear diplomacy with Pyongyang and for North East Asia’s security more broadly.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check our report The Next U.S. Administration and China Policy, our Q&A Plugging a New Gap in Monitoring Sanctions on North Korea, and our North East Asia regional page.

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Trump and the World

Sat, 09 Nov 2024 02:08:51 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Olga Oliker, Michael Wahid Hanna, Renata Segura, Ali Wyne and Amanda Hsiao to talk about Donald Trump's return to the White House and what it means for the world, whether the wars in Europe and the Middle East or crises and flashpoints elsewhere. He first talks with Olga about Trump’s pledge to end the Ukraine war. Does that means subjugating Kyiv to Russian influence? What does a more transactional Washington portend for NATO and European security? Richard and Michael then look at how a Trump presidency might approach Israel’s war in Gaza and Lebanon, its confrontation with Iran and Middle East politics more broadly. Renata lays out what to make of Trump’s stated plans for mass deportations and his next administration’s Latin America policy. Richard then speaks with Ali and Amanda about China policy under the next Trump administration, the prospect of tariffs on Chinese exports and flashpoints around Taiwan and in the South China Sea.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.

For more, check out our commentary Toward a Plan B for Peace in Ukraine, our recent report The Next U.S. Administration and China Policy, and our United States program page.

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Strongmen and Geopolitical Jostling in Central Africa

Sat, 02 Nov 2024 13:52:22 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Central Africa project director, Enrica Picco, to talk about Chad, the Central African Republic and Cameroon. They discuss Chadian President Mahamat Déby’s consolidation of power since the death of his fatherIdriss in 2021, his approach to dealing with the fallout from Sudan’s war and his outreach to new security partners alongside Chad’s traditional ally France. They also talk about neighbouring Central African Republic President Faustin-Archange Touadéra’s increasing reliance on Russian mercenaries and Rwandan forces for protection and support in battling rebels on the country’s peripheries. They look at Cameroonian President Paul Biya’s recent absence from public view, questions surrounding the leadership succession and enduring separatist violence in Cameroon’s Anglophone areas. Lastly, they assess the gloomy prospects for more open politics in Central Africa, where leaders seem determined to stay in power at any cost, and the implications for the region’s stability.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.

For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent Q&A Arrest of Separatist Leader Puts Spotlight on Cameroon’s Anglophone Conflict and our Central Africa regional page.

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The “Generals’ Plan”, Sinwar’s Death and a Year in Gaza

Sat, 26 Oct 2024 00:42:49 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Tahani Mustafa and Rob Blecher to discuss Israel’s intensified military operations in northern Gaza, the implications of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar’s death and what is left of Gaza a year into the war Israel launched in response to Hamas’ 7 October attacks. They talk about the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, particularly in the besieged north, where access to aid remains restricted. They discuss the “generals’ plan”, a blueprint by former Israeli military officials that entails denying areas of Gaza aid so as to flush out militants, which Israel denies it is implementing. They examine what Sinwar’s death might mean for Hamas and who might replace him as leader. With prospects for a ceasefire bleak, they also reflect on the devastating toll and trauma the past year has wrought on Gaza and Palestinian society.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcast or Spotify.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to read our recent statement In Gaza, the Time of Greatest Peril and our Israel/Palestine country page.

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Can Either Trump or NATO Membership Help End the Ukraine War?

Fri, 11 Oct 2024 19:02:45 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia director Olga Oliker and senior Ukraine analyst Lucian Kim to discuss the latest developments in the Ukraine war. They talk about President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s recent visit to the U.S., what we know about his proposed “victory plan” and his efforts to ensure support from both sides of the aisle in Washington. They unpack the latest battlefield dynamics, including Ukraine’s Kursk offensive, Russia’s slow but steady gains in eastern Ukraine and the challenges both sides face in maintaining the war effort. They examine how the approaching winter and Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure. They also discuss former U.S. president and Republican candidate Donald Trump’s claims that he can quickly end the war by striking a deal with Russian president Vladimir Putin and the idea gaining currency in Western capitals of making firmer commitments to Ukraine about its NATO membership.

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For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check our Ukraine country page and our visual explainer Ukraine War Map: Tracking the Frontlines.

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“Restoring Deterrence”: Dangerous Words in the Middle East

Fri, 04 Oct 2024 23:29:46 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard speaks to Crisis Group colleagues Christina Boutros, David Wood, Ali Vaez and Mairav Zonszein about Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon, Iran’s ballistic missile attack on Israel, how Israel might respond and whether the Biden administration can avert an all-out confrontation that would draw the U.S. in. Richard first discusses with David and Christina Israel’s bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon, its humanitarian toll, whether Hezbollah will fight back and what Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah’s death could mean for the country’s politics and sectarian relations. Richard then talks with Ali about Iran’s motives for launching its ballistic missile attack on 1 October against Israel and how it might react to an Israeli strike. Finally, he talks to Mairav about how Israelis view the attack and the opportunities and risks that lie in pressing what appears to be Israel’s military advantage in Lebanon and against Iran directly.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest alert The U.S. Should Prevent All-out Israeli-Hizbollah War, our alert Staying the Guns of August: Avoiding All-out Regional War in the Middle East and our Middle East & North Africa page.

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Will Israel’s Bombing Start an All-out War or Force Hizbollah Back from the Border?

Wed, 25 Sep 2024 12:35:30 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Heiko Wimmen and Michael Hanna about the intensified Israeli strikes on Hizbollah militants in Lebanon and whether both sides can still step back from the brink of all-out war. They unpack calculations on both sides, why Israel has ramped up attacks recently and why Hizbollah hasn’t yet responded more forcefully. They discuss what an escalation into a full-scale war would mean for both countries and the region. They also assess Washington’s role as the U.S. heads toward presidential elections, its failed efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and whether it can prevent a wider escalation absent one.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode read our recent conflict alert The U.S. Should Prevent All-out Israeli-Hizbollah War, and our Middle East & North Africa region page.

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The United Nations in a Divided World

Fri, 20 Sep 2024 16:34:57 GMT

In the first episode of Hold Your Fire’s new season, Richard Atwood is joined by Richard Gowan, Crisis Group’s UN director, to speak about the UN General Assembly high-level week and the UN’s global role. They look at how the UN has responded to the Gaza war and conflict’s impact on politics and debates at the UN. They talk about the UN’s efforts in other conflicts, including Ukraine, Sudan and Haiti, and challenges UN peacekeepers and envoys face elsewhere. They also discuss efforts to reform UN institutions and strengthen multilateral diplomacy and the potential implications of the U.S. elections, particularly if former President Donald Trump prevails, for the world body.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode check out our briefing Ten Challenges for the UN in 2024-2025, and our Updates from the UN General Assembly 2024.

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What Hope for a Gaza Ceasefire and What Happens Without One?

Mon, 22 Jul 2024 14:42:37 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Israel expert Mairav Zonszein, Israel-Palestine director Rami Dajani and U.S. program director Michael Hanna to talk about the latest from Gaza, prospects for a ceasefire and the risks of all-out war between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. They discuss how the violence in Gaza has evolved and the recent Israeli strike aimed at killing a top Hamas commander that, according to the local authorities, killed scores of civilians in a designated safe zone. They talk about ceasefire negotiations, whether the two sides have softened their positions on the main stumbling blocks – Hamas’s rejecton of a short-term ceasefire entailing the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners without guarantees that such a truce would lead to a permanent end to hostilities; and Israel’s refusal to agree to end the war without further degrading Hamas – and what governance in Gaza looks like absent a deal. They also cover the risk of a full-scale war between Israel and Hizbollah.

For more, check out our statement A Gaza Ceasefire and our Israel/Palestine country page.

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Pakistan’s Political Standoff and Surging Militant Violence

Fri, 12 Jul 2024 15:54:10 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s South Asia project director Samina Ahmed to talk about the fallout from the February elections in Pakistan, the deteriorating security in Pakistan’s border regions and Islamabad's relations with Pakistan’s neighbours. They unpack what’s behind the enduring popularity of former Prime Minister Imran Khan and his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, and their standoff with the country’s political and military establishment. They discuss Khan’s efforts to repair his relations with the military, the legal cases levelled against him and the near-term chances of his release from jail. They also talk about the uptick in militant attacks in Pakistan’s border regions, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, claimed in part by the Pakistani Taliban, links between that group and the Afghan Taliban, and the strained relations between Islamabad and the authorities in Kabul. Lastly, they touch upon Pakistan’s evolving relations with India.

For more, check out our Pakistan country page.

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Finland’s President Alexander Stubb on NATO, Europe’s Security and its Relations with the Rest of the World

Fri, 05 Jul 2024 14:43:20 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Finnish President and former Crisis Group trustee Alexander Stubb to talk about next week’s NATO summit, European security and the war in Ukraine. They assess Finland’s role as one of NATO’s newest members, Europe’s defence spending and preparedness and the future of the alliance as Washington’s attention shifts to the Asia Pacific. They talk about the war in Ukraine and what hope there is for a negotiated settlement. They discuss how Western capitals can counter perceptions of their double standards in much of the rest of the world and the challenges facing peacemaking and diplomacy in an era of big power competition and a more multipolar world order.

For more, check out our recent podcast episodes Ukraine and European Security and U.S. Elections and the Future of Transatlantic Relations.

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Houthi Strikes, Red Sea Shipping and Yemen’s War

Fri, 28 Jun 2024 16:00:14 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s senior Yemen analyst Ahmed Nagi to talk about the uptick in attacks by Houthi rebels on cargo ships in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean and the prospects for an escalation of the conflict both in Yemen and the broader region. They unpack what the Houthis are trying to achieve with the attacks, which the group has linked to the war in Gaza, and their relations with Iran and other members of the “axis of resistance”. They assess how effective the U.S. and UK-led military response has been in deterring Houthi strikes. They also discuss how the attacks on Red Sea shipping have affected the talks with Saudi Arabia that were underway in Yemen before 7 October, and whether the latest escalation could reignite the war in Yemen after a period of relative calm. They also reflect on how the Houthis might respond to an all-out war between Israel and the Lebanese group Hezbollah.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Q&A What Next After U.S. and UK Strikes on the Houthis? and our commentary The Gaza War Reverberates Across the Middle East.

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Ukraine and European Security

Fri, 21 Jun 2024 18:47:47 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia director Olga Oliker to talk about the latest from Ukraine, whether a negotiated settlement can be reached anytime soon and the future of European security. They discuss the Ukraine Summit of Peace in Switzerland and whether it met the expectations of Kyiv and other participants. They give an update on what is happening on the battlefield and prospects for a negotiated settlement to end the war. They also discuss Moscow’s and Kyiv’s demands, how they have evolved over the course of the war and what space exists for compromise. They talk about European security at large, the threat Western leaders see from Moscow and the deterrence value of Europe’s military build-up.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our reports Ukraine: How to Hold the Line and A Fraught Path Forward for Ukraine’s Liberated Territories and our Q&A An Embattled Kyiv Looks for Aid in the Diplomatic Arena.

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Türkiye in its Neighbourhood: “Strong in the Field, Strong at the Table”?

Sat, 15 Jun 2024 08:06:13 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Türkiye/Cyprus project director Nigar Göksel to talk about Türkiye’s foreign policy, particularly in its neighbourhood. They discuss the fallout of the Gaza war for Türkiye’s relations with Israel and the U.S., and Ankara’s evolving relations with other countries in the Eastern Mediterranean, as well as the Gulf. They assess Türkiye’s balancing act in Ukraine: as a NATO member supplying weapons to Kyiv and keen to check Russian influence in the Black Sea but keeping ties open to Moscow. They discuss Ankara’s close relations with Azerbaijan, prospects for Turkish normalisation with Armenia and Russian and Iranian influence in the South Caucasus. They also talk about Türkiye’s operations against Kurdish militants in Iraq and Syria and how Iran views Ankara’s involvement in both countries. They examine whether the past few years represent a new phase in Turkish foreign policy under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our commentaries Türkiye’s Growing Drone Exports and The Gaza War Reverberates Across the Middle East as well as last year’s episode with Nigar Drones and Diplomacy: Will Türkiye’s Elections Change its Middle Power Activism?

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A Big Week for Democracy: Elections in India, South Africa and Mexico

Fri, 07 Jun 2024 21:53:48 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Praveen Donthi, Pauline Bax and Falko Ernst to talk about the recent elections in India, South Africa and Mexico. Richard first talks to Praveen about the setbacks for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s BJP in India, what explains Indian voters’ discontent with the party, as well as India’s foreign policy, particularly its competition with China, and the role that played in the election. Pauline then joins Richard to discuss the ruling African National Congress’s poor performance in South Africa’s election, where the party has lost its 30-year parliamentary majority. They also look at South Africa’s hedging on the global stage and its motives in bringing a recent genocide case against Israel in the International Criminal Court. Richard and Falko then look at the elections in Mexico, where Claudia Sheinbaum from the ruling MORENA party is set to become the country’s first woman president after winning a landslide in an election marred by violence. They talk about how Sheinbaum’s security and foreign policies might differ from those of her mentor, incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out Praveen’s Foreign Affairs piece India’s Perilous Border Standoff With China, Pauline’s Q&A Rising Discontent Pushes South Africa Toward a Tight Poll and Falko’s Q&A As Mexico Votes, What Next for Crime and U.S. Ties?.

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Ruto in Washington: Kenya’s State Visit and the U.S.’s Africa Policy

Fri, 31 May 2024 16:11:43 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa director Murithi Mutiga to talk about Kenyan President William Ruto’s recent visit to the U.S., Nairobi’s involvement in Somalia, DR Congo and Haiti and Washington’s evolving role in Africa. They discuss the motives for and implications of President Ruto’s trip to the U.S., how Washington and Nairobi sought to benefit, and their closer ties. They look at the lessons from Kenya’s troop deployments to Somalia and DR Congo as Kenyan paramilitaries prepare to deploy to Haiti. They also assess U.S. policy in Africa more broadly, amid the continent’s shifting political sands and increasing Chinese, Russian and Turkish influence. They also reflect on Ruto’s foreign policy and pivot West, how he and other African leaders view the prospect of a second Trump presidency and, at a time when the International Criminal Court is in the spotlight, the court’s legacy in Kenya.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Q&A What’s at Stake in Kenyan President William Ruto’s State Visit to the U.S.? and the episode from our podcast The Horn: Kenya and the Chaos in Haiti.

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Iranian President Raisi’s Sudden Death and the ICC Case Against Israeli and Hamas Leaders

Sat, 25 May 2024 21:09:35 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein and Stephen Pomper to talk about the death of Iran’s president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash and the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor’s request for arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders. Richard first speaks to Ali to discuss Raisi’s legacy and how his sudden demise might affect Iranian politics, particularly Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s succession, and its foreign relations. Richard then talks with Mairav and Steve about the announcement by ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan that he was requesting arrest warrants for top Hamas leaders as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. They unpack the reaction to the announcement in Israel and the U.S. and its possible impact on the war in Gaza.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Q&A Iran: Death of a President and All Eyes on The Hague: The ICC Prosecutor’s Move against Hamas and Israeli Leaders.

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South China Sea: The World’s Most Treacherous Waters?

Fri, 17 May 2024 16:44:22 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s China and Philippines experts Amanda Hsiao and Georgi Engelbrecht to talk about friction between China and the Philippines in the South China Sea. They discuss recent incidents involving Chinese coast guard vessels ramming and firing water cannons at Philippine supply boats near the contested Second Thomas Shoal and the risk of further escalation. They unpack the competing claims in the South China Sea and the strategic value of the maritime features for China and the Philippines. They talk about Manila’s policy towards China and its deepening defence ties to the U.S. under current President Ferdinand Marcos. They also discuss U.S. involvement in the South China Sea and Asia more broadly, China’s reaction to Washington reinforcing its Asian alliances and how to manage risks of incidents between the Chinese and U.S. militaries in the region.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our South China Sea page.

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War and Hunger in Gaza and Darfur

Fri, 10 May 2024 20:31:00 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Alan Boswell, Shewit Woldemichael, Rami Dajani and Rob Blecher about the latest from Sudan’s western Darfur region and from Gaza. Richard first talks to Alan and Shewit about the worsening violence in North Darfur. As the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces encircle the city of al-Fashar, the last Darfuri capital held by the Sudanese army, and both sides build up forces, they talk about the implications of an all-out battle for the city. They also discuss the legacy of the 2020 Juba peace agreement and why some Darfuri former rebels have now chosen to fight alongside the Sudanese army against the RSF. Richard then talks to Rami and Rob about Israel’s incursion this past week into Gaza’s southernmost city, Rafah. They discuss prospects for talks over a ceasefire-hostage release deal in Cairo, the views of both Hamas and the Israeli government on what such a deal should entail and Israeli politics around the Rafah offensive. They also talk about the difficulties of aid delivery and famine risks in both Sudan and Gaza.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our statement Sudan: A Year of War and our report Stopping Famine in Gaza.

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Egypt and Gaza: Cairo Talks, Sinai Fears

Fri, 03 May 2024 16:10:58 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s North Africa director Riccardo Fabiani, U.S. director Michael Hanna and Dareen Khalifa, Crisis Group’s senior dialogue adviser, to talk about the Gaza war’s impact on Egypt. They assess the latest round of ceasefire talks in Cairo and Egypt’s role as a mediator. They talk about Cairo’s fear, since 7 October, of Palestinians’ forced displacement from Gaza into Egypt’s Sinai region and the implications of an Israeli ground operation in Rafah. They look at how the war in Gaza has exacerbated Egypt’s economic woes, particularly given the Egyptian military’s outsized economic footprint and the country’s closed politics. They assess the significance of protests in solidarity with Palestinians and whether those might channel discontent at the government of President Abdul Fatah al-Sisi. They also explore Egypt’s position on Gaza’s future and interim governance arrangements.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Egypt and Israel-Palestine pages.

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Could a Competitive Vote Offer a Way out of Venezuela’s Crisis?

Fri, 26 Apr 2024 16:42:26 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Venezuela expert Phil Gunson to discuss Venezuelan presidential elections, whether they offer a chance for the country to escape its protracted political crisis and Venezuela’s claim to Essequibo, an oil-rich region of neighbouring Guyana. They talk about Edmundo Gonzalez, an outsider whom the opposition appears to have rallied behind as its candidate to take on President Nicolas Maduro. They look back to the October 2023 Barbados agreement between the government and opposition that set out conditions for the vote, the opposition primary just afterwards, and the government’s efforts since to curb the opposition’s prospects. They explore how the country has been faring, as economic collapse triggers a humanitarian crisis and a wave of migration. They also talk about Venezuela’s dispute with neighbouring Guyana over Essequibo and what role other neighbours, Brazil and Colombia, could play in resolving the crisis. Finally, they assess whether a more competitive vote could offer a path to some form of transition or cohabitation between the government and opposition.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest commentary Seeking the Best from a Skewed Poll: Hard Choices for Venezuela.

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Bonus Episode: Polarisation, Political Violence and the U.S. Elections

Wed, 24 Apr 2024 16:37:07 GMT

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on the U.S. elections from Crisis Group's Ripple Effect podcast.

In this episode of Ripple Effect, Michael and Steve talk with Rachel Kleinfeld, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, about the state of U.S. democracy and the risk of political violence as the U.S. heads toward the November elections. They break down how we should understand polarisation in U.S. society. They assess the potential risk factors that could contribute to political violence in the run-up and aftermath of the November elections and how they compare to the 2020 elections. They discuss how Washington is navigating the difficult task of promoting democracy abroad while facing its own challenges to its democratic institutions. They also talk about what politicians on both sides of the aisle can do to mitigate the risk of political violence in the near term.

For more, check out Rachel’s piece Polarization, Democracy, and Political Violence in the United States: What the Research Says. You can read more of Crisis Group’s in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode on our United States program page.

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Out of the Shadows: Exchanges of Fire Between Iran and Israel

Fri, 19 Apr 2024 18:00:39 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna, Lahib Higel and Robert Blecher to discuss the exchange of fire between Iran and Israel, risks of a wider regional war and what the escalation means for the war in Gaza. Richard first speaks with Ali, Mairav and Michael about Iran’s calculations in launching an attack on 13 April that saw hundreds of missiles and drones target Israeli military infrastructure, debates in Israel on how to respond and views within both countries’ societies. They also talk about U.S. efforts to stop regional tensions spiralling out of control. Richard then talks with Lahib and Rob about the latest developments in Gaza, particularly warnings of famine and prospects for a ceasefire.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest statement The Israel-Iran Crisis: A Chance to Step Back from the Brink, our report Stopping Famine in Gaza and our Middle East & North Africa page.

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What’s Left of Sudan After a Year At War?

Fri, 12 Apr 2024 20:55:08 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined again by Crisis Group’s Sudan expert Shewit Woldemichael and Horn of Africa director Alan Boswell to discuss Sudan’s war on the eve of its first anniversary. They talk about what’s happening on the battlefield, particularly recent gains by the Sudanese Armed Forces against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which had appeared to have the upper hand. They unpack the humanitarian crisis, with millions displaced and aid access restricted by the warring parties as famine looms. They also discuss internal dynamics within Sudan’s Armed Forces, which increasingly rely on Islamist brigades and other armed groups, and the RSF. They examine outside powers’ roles, with Egypt supporting and Iran reportedly selling drones to the army, the United Arab Emirates widely thought to be arming the RSF, and how foreign involvement has evolved. They also discuss the difficulties of getting the warring parties’ leaders to talk even about a ceasefire, let alone a more sustainable end to the fighting, and the difficulties of returning Sudan to a civilian-led post-war transition.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest statement Sudan: A Year of War and our Sudan country page.

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The Moscow Attack, Afghanistan’s Islamic State branch and the Ukraine War

Fri, 29 Mar 2024 20:34:12 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard talks with Crisis Group experts Jerome Drevon, Ibraheem Bahiss and Olga Oliker about the attack on Crocus City Hall in a Moscow suburb claimed by the Islamic State (ISIS), how the group and its affiliates have evolved in recent years and the potential implications of the strike for Russian politics and the war in Ukraine. Richard first talks with Jerome and Ibraheem about what we know about the attack and the involvement of ISIS and the group’s affiliate in Afghanistan, Islamic State-Khorasan Province (IS-KP). They discuss how ISIS’s structure has evolved after losing its territory in Iraq and Syria and how much of a global threat it and its affiliates now pose. They also discuss the Taliban’s fight against IS-KP and its relations with outside powers worried about threats emanating from Afghanistan. Richard then talks with Olga about the attacks’ implications for Russia, Moscow’s attempts to link responsibility to Kyiv and what that might mean for the war in Ukraine.

For more in-depth analysis of topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent Q&A ISIS Strikes Moscow, our 2016 report Exploiting Disorder: al-Qaeda and the Islamic State and our Jihad in Modern Conflict page. For more reading on the topic, check out The Exile: The Stunning Inside Story of Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda in Flight by Adrian Levy and Catherine Scott-Clark.

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Conferences in Germany, India and Türkiye and the Demise of Peace Deals

Tue, 26 Mar 2024 08:57:02 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Comfort Ero, Crisis Group’s President and CEO, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to talk about a string of recent conferences – in Germany, India and Türkiye – and obstacles to diplomacy aimed at securing peace deals among warring parties. First, they share takeaways from the Munich Security Conference, the Raisina Dialogue in India and Türkiye’s Antalya Diplomacy Forum, the differences in mood in each of the three meetings and what they tell us about global affairs today. Then, they discuss why so few recent conflicts have ended in negotiated settlements, what’s behind the seeming demise of comprehensive peace agreements and what a changing global environment for diplomacy means for efforts to end wars today.

For more of Crisis Group’s in-depth analysis of conflicts around the world, check out our website.

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Haiti in Freefall

Fri, 15 Mar 2024 16:32:27 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group Haiti expert Diego Da Rin and deputy Latin America and Caribbean director Renata Segura to discuss the latest wave of gang violence engulfing Haiti. They look at the recent attempt by gangs, who already controlled perhaps 80 per cent of the capital Port-au-Prince, to overrun the airport, ports, government buildings and other critical infrastructure and their attacks on jails that freed thousands of inmates. They look at a new pact between previously warring gangs, seemingly motivated by their determination to deter foreign forces arriving, and the aspirations of gang leaders, notably Jimmy “Barbeque” Cherizier. They talk about the worsening humanitarian crisis, as water, food and fuel become harder to access. They discuss whether Prime Minister Ariel Henry’s resignation, a new presidential council and efforts by the Caribbean’s regional bloc CARICOM to mediate among Haiti’s politicians can turn a page on years of tumult. They also assess how a Kenya-led multinational force can help loosen gangs’ grip on the capital and what role diplomacy with gang leaders can play in reducing violence.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, check out our briefing Haiti’s Gangs: Can a Foreign Mission Break Their Stranglehold? and our Haiti country page.

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Starving Gaza

Sat, 09 Mar 2024 01:22:19 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Azmi Keshawi, Robert Blecher and Mairav Zonszein to discuss Gaza’s humanitarian crisis, Israeli politics around the war, stalled ceasefire talks and how much Washington’s stance is changing. Richard first talks to Azmi in Gaza’s southern city of Rafah about deteriorating living conditions in the strip. He then talks with Mairav and Robert about the main obstacles to ceasefire talks and the difficulties in getting aid into the strip and distributing it. They assess how much Israel's military operation is succeeding in degrading Hamas's military infrastructure. They also talk about splits in the Israeli war cabinet and how much pressure Washington is prepared to exert to get more aid in.

For more analysis of the conflict in Israel-Palestine, check out our Israel/Palestine page.

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Military Rule and Russian Mercenaries in the Sahel

Fri, 01 Mar 2024 15:31:24 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Sahel director, Jean-Hervé Jezequel, to discuss the decision of military leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger to withdraw from the regional bloc ECOWAS, their campaigns against jihadist insurgencies, backed by Russian mercenaries and what might lie ahead for the region. They unpack the strained relationship between the three countries and West African and Western capitals and their seemingly closer relations to Moscow. They look at how military leaders’ rhetoric emphasising their sovereignty has won support among parts of the population but also its limits in terms of enabling them to deliver the basic services that citizens need. They discuss whether the Sahel’s new authorities might at some point talk to jihadist militants. They also assess the risks of further coups in the region.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest report “Northern Mali: Return to Dialogue” and our Sahel country page.

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Great Lakes Politics and the Fight for the Eastern DR Congo

Fri, 23 Feb 2024 15:58:36 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Great Lakes director, Richard Moncrieff, to discuss the spike in violence in eastern Congo’s North Kivu province, where clashes between M23 rebels and government forces have intensified. They talk about the fight for Sake, a town just west of provincial capital Goma, the risk of the M23 marching on Goma and the worsening humanitarian crisis. They look at what’s behind Kinshasa’s pivot to southern Africa for support, escalating friction between the DR Congo and Rwanda over Kigali’s alleged support for the M23 and increasing polarisation in the region over the war. They look at the prospects of talks with the M23, a regional track involving Rwanda and other neighbours of the DR Congo and the role of Western governments that traditionally have close ties to Rwanda.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, visit our DRC country page.

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“Axis of Resistance” versus U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria

Tue, 13 Feb 2024 09:33:04 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Senior Iraq Analyst, Lahib Higel, to discuss the latest escalation between Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq and Syria and U.S. forces stationed in the region. They talk about the 29 January drone strike that killed three U.S. soldiers in a military base in Jordan and the U.S. retaliation against Iran-backed groups in Iraq, including a strike in Baghdad on 7 February that killed a senior commander from Kata’ib Hizbollah, which orchestrated the Jordan attack. They unpack the history of Kata’ib Hizbollah and other members of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, their relations with other Iraqi Shia paramilitaries, including those in the Hashd al Shaabi, or popular mobilisation forces, and Islamic Resistance strikes on U.S. forces since Hamas’s 7 October attack on Israel and Israel’s subsequent assault on Gaza. They talk about how much control Tehran has over the Iraqi groups. They also discuss what the escalation means for the role and presence of U.S. forces in Iraq.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, visit our Iraq country page.

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The Red Sea and the Horn

Sat, 03 Feb 2024 23:01:33 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa Director Murithi Mutiga to discuss Horn of Africa politics, including Ethiopia's push for sea access, Sudan’s war, Kenya’s regional role and Gulf rivalries playing out in the region. They talk about a recently announced deal between Ethiopia and Somaliland, the breakaway northern region of Somalia, that would see Ethiopia lease part of the Somaliland coast reportedly in exchange for Ethiopia’s recognition of Somaliland’s statehood. They discuss the reaction in Somalia, which rejects Somaliland independence, and whether anti-Ethiopian sentiment could strengthen Islamist militant group Al-Shabaab. They also talk about growing hostility between Ethiopia and Eritrea. They discuss increasing foreign involvement in Sudan’s war and the former paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ advances. They touch on the regional role that Kenyan President William Ruto appears to aspire to and the evolving influence of Western powers, especially the U.S., in the Horn.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, visit our Horn of Africa regional page.

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War of Attrition in Ukraine

Fri, 26 Jan 2024 17:51:43 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia Director Olga Oliker to talk about recent developments in Ukraine and where things might be headed after almost two years of war. They discuss why Ukraine’s counteroffensive failed to break through Russian defences, whether a war of attrition now plays to Russia’s benefit and how it might shape Ukrainian and Russian politics. They also discuss signs that Ukraine’s Western backers could be wavering in their support, which has been critical to war efforts, and what a Trump presidency might mean for Kyiv. They also look at prospects for diplomacy in the year ahead.

For more on the situation in Ukraine, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page.

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Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2024

Mon, 22 Jan 2024 15:00:19 GMT

On this week’s Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Comfort Ero, Crisis Group’s president and CEO, and Stephen Pomper, Chief of Policy, to reflect on 2023 and look ahead to 2024. They talk through Crisis Group’s “10 Conflicts to Watch in 2024”, this year’s edition of Crisis Group’s annual flagship commentary by Comfort and Richard, co-published with Foreign Policy magazine. The list this year includes Gaza, the wider Middle East, Sudan, Ukraine, Myanmar, Ethiopia, the Sahel, Haiti, Armenia-Azerbaijan and the U.S.-China rivalry. Comfort, Richard and Steve also talk through wider trends underpinning the uptick in conflict over recent years and what U.S. elections this year mean for world affairs and the U.S.’s global role.

For more information, check out our flagship commentary, by Comfort Ero and Richard Atwood, with Foreign Policy magazine: “10 Conflicts to Watch in 2024”, Crisis Group’s Twitter thread 8 Reasons For Hope in 2024 and the Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2024 Event with Comfort, hosted by Chatham House.

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A New Phase in the War in Gaza?

Sat, 13 Jan 2024 18:39:54 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Robert Blecher, Tahani Mustafa and Heiko Wimmen to talk again about the war in Gaza, the mood in Israel, what the promised third phase of Israeli operations in the strip look like and the danger of clashes between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah escalating. Richard first talks to Mairav and Robert about what is happening in Israel and Gaza. He then discusses with Tahani efforts by Palestinian factions, including Fatah and Hamas, to form a united front. He and Heiko assess the significance of the killing of Hamas leader Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut and the risk of the continuing clashes between Hizbollah and Israel at the northern border triggering a wider confrontation.

For more analysis of the conflict in Israel-Palestine, check out our Israel/Palestine page.

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Iran: Gaza, “Axis of Resistance” and Nuclear Calculations

Fri, 01 Dec 2023 16:42:35 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran Project Director Ali Vaez to talk about Iran’s position on the war in Gaza and its advantages and drawbacks for Tehran. They look at Iran’s links with what it calls the “Axis of Resistance” – Hizbollah in Lebanon, militias in Iraq and Syria, and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as Palestinian militants including Hamas – and its strategy of using such groups to extend its influence in the region and as deterrence against attacks on Iran by its rivals. They also assess how the war has affected Iran’s nuclear ambitions, with its nuclear program ever more advanced and a potential nuclear crisis looming. They talk about Iran’s relations with Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states and the prospects that diplomacy in the region can reduce risks of a wider war, either related to Gaza or Iran’s nuclear program.

For more analysis on the risks of U.S.-Iran escalation, check out our Q&A Understanding the Risks of U.S.-Iran Escalation amid the Gaza Conflict, as well as our Iran and Israel/Palestine pages.

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What Threat Does the Rebel Offensive in Myanmar Pose to the Junta?

Fri, 24 Nov 2023 14:40:26 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert Richard Horsey to talk about the offensive launched by the Three Brotherhood Alliance, comprising three ethnic armed groups, that has made rapid advances against Myanmar’s military in northern Shan State. They talk about the offensive and what the various ethnic armed groups hope to gain. They look at the illicit economy along the northern border areas, China’s border management approach, Beijing’s policy and its worries about online scam centres in Myanmar’s east. They also talk about the resistance forces across Myanmar that emerged when the junta cracked down on post-coup protests, relations between those forces and the ethnic armed groups, and how they view the latest surge in fighting. They discuss Myanmar’s growing humanitarian needs and massive displacement over the past few years.

For more analysis on the recent fighting in Myanmar, check out our Q&A A New Escalation of Armed Conflict in Myanmar and our Myanmar page.

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Will There Be a Day After for Gaza?

Fri, 17 Nov 2023 16:37:23 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks to Crisis Group experts Tahani Mustafa and Heiko Wimmen, as well as to Daniel Levy, president of the U.S./Middle East Project, about the surge in settler attacks in the West Bank, the escalating tensions at the Israel-Lebanon border and hopes for a ceasefire in Gaza. Richard first talks to Tahani about the spike in violence in the West Bank, including Israeli settler attacks, how the Palestinian Authority has responded and what role it might play in Gaza. He then talks with Heiko about the intensifying clashes at the Israel-Lebanon border and risks of further escalation. In a longer conversation, Richard and Daniel assess the odds of an Israel-Hamas hostage deal, the U.S.’s role in halting the fighting in Gaza, what a day after in Gaza might look like and prospects for restarting political talks between Israelis and Palestinians.

For more analysis on the war in Gaza, check out our Israel/Palestine page.

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Sudan’s Collapse and the Demise of Peacemaking

Fri, 10 Nov 2023 17:51:06 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Alan Boswell and Shewit Woldemichael to talk about the latest developments in Sudan’s civil war, where fighting between the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has been raging for almost seven months. They talk about the recent advances by the RSF in Darfur, where the Sudanese army has been largely routed, and what the recent gains mean for the war’s trajectory. They talk about the RSF’s motives in fighting and what its leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, or Hemedti, hopes to gain from the war. They discuss the army’s weakness and increasing reliance on Islamist forces formerly associated with long-serving ruler Omar al-Bashir. They also examine the dearth of serious diplomacy aimed at ending the war.

For more analysis on the war in Sudan, check out our Sudan page.

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What Hope for a Ceasefire in Gaza

Sun, 05 Nov 2023 09:29:47 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Robert Blecher and Azmi Keshawi to discuss Israel’s assault on Gaza, the mood in Israel nearly a month after Hamas’s 7 October attacks and whether Israeli concerns about Hamas can be addressed without such devastation and civilian harm in Gaza. Richard first talks to Mairav and Robert about Israel’s operations thus far, whether its goals in Gaza are evolving and the nature of U.S. support. They discuss prospects for a ceasefire or at least a pause in fighting, perhaps in exchange for Hamas releasing ome hostages, and whether that could buy some space for diplomacy. Richard then talks to Azmi about life in Gaza under Israeli bombardment and short of basic necessities.

For more analysis on the war in Gaza, check out our Israel/Palestine page.

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Gaza, Ukraine and An Inflection Point in World Politics?

Fri, 27 Oct 2023 15:32:41 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia Director Olga Oliker and U.S. Director Michael Hanna to discuss the war in Gaza, its implications for Ukraine and U.S. President Joe Biden’s efforts to navigate the crisis in the Middle East while supporting Ukraine’s defence against Russia. They first look at Ukraine’s fears that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could divert Western resources away from its fight against Russia’s invasion. They talk about U.S. attempts to get aid to both Israel and Ukraine despite a divided Congress. They look at how Russia views what is happening in the Middle East, whether a wider regional war may be in Moscow’s interest and how much sway it has in the region. They also talk about the impact of the Gaza war on the regional diplomacy underway before Hamas’s attacks, notably between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and efforts by the U.S. to encourage Saudi Arabia to normalise relations with Israel.

For more analysis of the conflict in Israel-Palestine, you can check out our latest statement A Ceasefire in Gaza and our Israel/Palestine page.

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War in Gaza: To What End and At What Cost?

Fri, 20 Oct 2023 21:06:32 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Robert Blecher, Tahani Mustafa and Heiko Wimmen to discuss what has happened over the past week in Gaza and where the war might be headed. Richard first talks to Mairav and Robert about Biden’s visit to Israel this week, Israel’s looming ground invasion of Gaza and whether the devastating blast at the al-Ahli Arab Hospital in Gaza, for which responsibility remains unclear, might change calculations in Israel or Washington. He then talks with Tahani about escalating violence in the West Bank and risks of further worsening bloodshed. He and Heiko discuss the continuing exchange of fire between the Israeli army and Lebanese militant group Hizbollah at the Israel-Lebanon border and what might trigger a further escalation there and further afield.

For more analysis of the conflict in Israel-Palestine, you can check out our latest statement A Ceasefire in Gaza and our Israel/Palestine page.

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No Going Back? Hamas’s Atrocities and Another Catastrophe in Gaza

Fri, 13 Oct 2023 18:34:53 GMT

For the first episode of a new season of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Joost Hiltermann, Mairav Zonszein and Azmi Keshawi to discuss Hamas’s shock attack on Israel over the weekend and its potential consequences. The attack saw Palestinian gunmen rampage through southern Israel killing some 1,200 Israelis, many of whom were civilians, including women, children, the elderly and entire families. In response, Israel has bombed and blockaded Gaza, and is gearing up for a ground offensive. Richard first talks to Azmi in Gaza about life for Gazans under the Israeli bombardment and their views of Hamas. He then talks with Mairav about Israelis’ shock at the horrific attacks, the intelligence failures that Hamas exploited and the mood among Israelis. He and Joost discuss what Hamas hoped to gain, outside actors’ involvement, how the war affects Arab politics and Israeli-Saudi normalisation talks, and the dangers of escalation, particularly involving the Lebanese militant group Hizbollah. At the end of the episode, Richard speaks to Azmi again after his displacement from Gaza City.

For more analysis of the conflict in Israel-Palestine, you can check out our latest commentary A Second October War in Israel-Palestine and our Israel/Palestine page.

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A Long War Looming in Sudan

Fri, 07 Jul 2023 13:21:45 GMT

Almost three months into the war in Sudan that has pitted the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) against the Sudanese Army, the fighting shows no sign of slowing. Khartoum remains the epicentre, but Sudan’s periphery, especially the West Darfur region, has seen a dramatic resurgence in intercommunal violence. Mediation efforts have thus far yielded little.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined again by Crisis Group’s Senior Sudan Analyst Shewit Woldemichael and Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Project Director Alan Boswell to talk about the war. They discuss the tragedy unfolding in Darfur, where civilians have increasingly become the target of resurging ethnic violence. They talk about the latest battlefield dynamics between Sudan’s Army and the RSF in Khartoum and if either side stands a chance of prevailing militarily. They also discuss why mediation efforts by the U.S., Saudi Arabia and African leaders have made little headway and the consequences of a protracted war.

For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to check out our Sudan country page.

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Bonus Episode: What Egypt Wants in Sudan

Fri, 30 Jun 2023 14:54:51 GMT

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Egypt and Sudan from Crisis Group's The Horn podcast.

The conflict in Sudan between the country’s armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has been a major source of concern for its northern neighbour Egypt. Cairo, a backer of Sudan’s army, now faces both a humanitarian crisis that is spilling over into its borders and an increasingly challenging geopolitical landscape with Sudan, an ally since the fall of Omar al-Bashir in 2019, descending into chaos.

This week on The Horn, Alan talks with Michael Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program director, about Egypt’s role in the war in Sudan. They look at the historical ties between the two countries, current political dynamics, and Egypt’s response to the 2019 popular uprising and political transition in Sudan. They discuss what is behind Cairo’s support for the Sudanese armed forces and how it positioned itself toward the current conflict in Sudan. They also discuss Cairo’s views of U.S.-led diplomacy and the role of Gulf powers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in Sudan and the Horn of Africa more generally. They also talk about the long-running dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and how the war in Sudan might affect Cairo’s diplomacy in the region more broadly.

For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Sudan and Egypt country pages.

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Is This the End? Wagner in Russia, Ukraine and Africa

Wed, 28 Jun 2023 16:16:31 GMT

Over the weekend, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Russian private security company known as the Wagner Group, spearheaded an insurrection in Russia. In response to Kremlin moves to bring Wagner under the Russian army’s command and, according to him, attacks on a Wagner base by the Russian military, the group seized the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, the main staging ground for Russia’s Ukraine war. Wagner forces then advanced to within 200km of Moscow before Prigozhin backed down and agreed to leave for Belarus and demobilise his forces involved in the uprising. Wagner’s future, particularly in areas of Africa and the Middle East in which it operates, is uncertain.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks first with Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia Director Olga Oliker about what drove Prigozhin’s rebellion and what it means for the Kremlin and its war in Ukraine. Richard then talks to Sahel Director Jean-Hervé Jezequel and UN Director Richard Gowan about how the uprising might affect Wagner’s operations in Africa, particularly in Mali. They look at how the Malian transitional authorities’ ties to Moscow and Wagner have influenced Bamako’s foreign relations and their recent demand that the Security Council pull out UN peacekeepers from Mali. They also examine what the withdrawal of the mission might mean for the fight against jihadists in Mali and a peace process in the country’s north that is already under strain.

For more in-depth analysis on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Russia and Africa pages.

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Blinken in Beijing: Will the Secretary of State's Visit Calm China-U.S. Tensions?

Fri, 23 Jun 2023 16:35:00 GMT

This week, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken travelled to Beijing, where he met with top Chinese foreign policy officials as well as President Xi Jinping. His trip, the first high-level visit in nearly five years, comes at a low point in China-U.S. relations, with the two giants at loggerheads over issues ranging from trade policy to Taiwan.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard talks to Amanda Hsiao, Crisis Group’s senior China analyst, about the takeaways from Blinken’s visit and the state of China-U.S. relations. They discuss the significance of Blinken’s visit, what motivated both sides to set it up, what was on the agenda and whether the trip signals a thaw in relations. They look at risks of a mishap between the two militaries escalating, as Chinese and American boats and planes operate in close proximity to one another in the Taiwan Strait and South and East China Seas. They also talk about the debate over China in Washington ahead of the 2024 elections and where the bilateral relationship might be headed.

For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to check out our China and U.S. country pages.

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Myanmar’s Forgotten War

Fri, 16 Jun 2023 09:32:00 GMT

In February 2021, Myanmar’s military seized power in a coup that plunged the country into a protracted crisis. Mass protests against the junta met a brutal crackdown and morphed into armed resistance, with new groups, known as people’s defence forces, fighting the army across swathes of rural Myanmar. Some of the country’s ethnic armed organisations, older rebel forces that have battled the Myanmar army for decades mostly from the country’s upland areas, have thrown their weight behind the new resistance. Others have sat out the fighting. The Myanmar military’s scorched-earth tactics entail airstrikes and other attacks that indiscriminately target civilians in an attempt to punish dissent and cut off support for the resistance. Outside efforts to halt the fighting and force the military to cede power have mostly been left to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and have made no headway.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Richard Horsey, Crisis Group’s Myanmar expert, to talk about the war and why ending it is not a greater priority for global powers. They discuss how fighting between the military and resistance groups has evolved, the military’s brutal counter-insurgency approach and both sides’ calculations. They explore why some ethnic armed groups support the resistance while others have taken advantage of the crisis to consolidate their influence in other ways. They also talk about the international politics of the crisis: Russia’s support to the junta, China’s recent diplomatic engagement, thus far ineffective ASEAN diplomacy and Western powers’ half-hearted involvement. They discuss why a more concerted international effort could matter, notwithstanding the Myanmar military’s longstanding intransigence to outside influence. They also look at the war’s longer-term implications and why ending it should be a greater priority for the world.

For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to check out our Myanmar country page.

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Could Jihadists Seize Parts of Coastal West Africa?

Fri, 02 Jun 2023 20:43:02 GMT

Recent years have seen increasing fear in some Gulf of Guinea countries, notably Benin, Togo, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, that jihadists who have overrun much of the Sahel move south. Militants already operate in forested areas along the Benin-Burkina Faso border, and northern Benin and Togo have both seen an uptick in jihadist attacks.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa Deputy Director Pauline Bax and Sahel Senior Analyst Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim to discuss what’s behind militants’ southward march. They first look at how jihadists captured swaths of Burkina Faso, which borders several Gulf of Guinea countries and could serve as a gateway to coastal West Africa. They ask whether coastal governments should see the presence of militants in their north as spillover from the Sahel or a problem rooted in the local politics of often-neglected regions. They talk about how militants are recruiting and raising money. They also look at the policies of the different governments involved, coordination among them and the involvement of Western capitals and Russia, among outside powers. They look at how coastal countries in West Africa differ from their Sahelian neighbours and what they can learn from mistakes in the Sahel.

For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to check out our Sahel and West Africa regional pages.

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Libya: Political Gridlock, Regional Politics and Sudan’s War

Fri, 26 May 2023 15:21:33 GMT

Last week, Libya’s parliament fired one of the country’s two prime ministers, Fathi Bashaga. Libya for years has been split between two rival governments. An internationally recognised prime minister, Abdelhamid Dabaiba, sits in the capital Tripoli and a rival government, until recently headed by Bashaga, is based mostly in the east. Last summer, Bashaga, who was backed by Khalifa Haftar, a powerful commander from eastern Libya, tried several times to seize Tripoli by force. Those efforts failed, costing Bashaga a lot of support in the east. Over recent months, Haftar’s camp and Dabaiba have been holding quiet talks. Violence has mostly subsided and the country has experienced something of an economic upturn thanks to increasing oil revenues. Still, the political gridlock remains. The newly appointed UN envoy for Libya, Abdoulaye Bathily, has laid out a roadmap to elections, but his plan does not seem to enjoy much support from either camp.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Libya expert Claudia Gazzini, recently in Tripoli, to talk about Libya’s gridlock. They take stock of the dynamics between the rivalling political factions in the country, prospects for the Haftar-Dabaiba talks and also for elections. They discuss changing geopolitical winds in the region, particularly how better ties between Türkiye, which has long backed the internationally recognised government in Tripoli, and Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, which back Haftar, have made foreign involvement in Libya less fraught. They also talk about Libyan factions’ potential links to the fighting in Sudan and the danger of spillover.

For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to check out our Libya country page.

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Riyadh and the World: What to Make of Saudi Arabia’s Recent Diplomacy

Mon, 22 May 2023 19:25:30 GMT

Saudi Arabia’s diplomacy is flourishing after a decade in which Riyadh has been entangled in regional conflicts and rivalries. Over the past few years, Saudi Arabia has turned the page on the Gulf Cooperation Council dispute, opened talks with Huthi rebels in Yemen, agreed to re-open diplomatic relations with Iran and welcomed Syrian president Bashar al-Assad back to the Arab League.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Abdulaziz Sager, Founder and Chairman of the Gulf Research Center and Crisis Group trustee, to talk about Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy.

They talk about Syria at the Arab League, last March’s China-brokered Saudi-Iran deal, how Iran’s rapidly advancing nuclear program might impact Saudi-Iran relations, and Riyadh’s talks with the Huthis. They also discuss the rapprochement within the Gulf Cooperation Council and Saudi Arabia’s hosting, with the U.S., of talks between Sudan’s warring factions. They examine how Riyadh is positioning itself in an era of friction between its traditional security partner, the U.S., and China, its most important market, and how it has navigated the collapse in Russia-West relations over Ukraine. They ask whether Saudi Arabia’s recent diplomacy represents a recalibration and if so, why the change and what is its significance.

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Fighting in Khartoum, Talking in Jeddah

Fri, 12 May 2023 16:58:23 GMT

Fighting between the Sudanese armed forces and a rival paramilitary outfit, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has torn apart Sudan for nearly a month. The capital Khartoum and its residents have borne the brunt of the violence, with millions caught in the city and supplies of drinking water, food and medicine running low. Hundreds of thousands have left their homes. This past week, the warring parties’ representatives have met in the Saudi city Jeddah for talks brokered by Saudi Arabia and the U.S., though observers remain sceptical that they will reach an agreement on a ceasefire, let alone an end to the war and transition to civilian rule.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined again by Crisis Group’s Senior Sudan Analyst Shewit Woldemichael and Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Project Director Alan Boswell to discuss how the fighting is evolving and prospects for the Jeddah talks. They discuss the clashes in Khartoum and in Sudan’s western Darfur region, the humanitarian fallout and the latest from Jeddah. They talk about the implications of including only the warring parties, rather than also civilians or other armed groups, in the talks, and of the Saudi-U.S. lead. They also talk about the risks of others getting involved, whether Sudanese rebels or outside powers, the longer the war drags on.

For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to check out our Sudan country page.

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What to Expect from Ukraine’s Counter-Offensive

Fri, 05 May 2023 15:27:28 GMT

As fighting rages in Ukraine, with high casualties but little ground gained or lost on either side, Kyiv seems poised to launch its much anticipated counteroffensive. New Western equipment, including tanks, has arrived and Ukraine appears to have struck Russian supply lines, including in Crimea. Russia, meanwhile, has dug in along key stretches of the front and upped attacks on Ukrainian towns and cities, mostly hitting civilian infrastructure. This past week also saw an alleged attempted drone attack on the Kremlin, with Moscow blaming Kyiv and Washington, both of which denied the accusation.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Program Director for Europe and Central Asia. They look at what the counteroffensive might entail and what success would look like for Ukraine and its Western backers. They examine Russia’s calculations, the alleged drone attacks on the Kremlin and what it would take to lessen Moscow’s seeming determination to keep fighting. They also discuss debates in Western capitals about supplying Kyiv with advanced fighter jets, how the Ukraine war is playing out in U.S. politics ahead of the 2024 elections and what it all means for Western unity in backing Ukraine.

For more analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, be sure to check out our Ukraine country page and our commentary Saying the Quiet Part Out Loud: Russia’s New Vision for Taking on the West.

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What Can Stop Sudan’s Devastating War

Fri, 28 Apr 2023 14:13:32 GMT

Sudan has entered its second week of fighting between rival military factions. Battles between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have torn apart cities and towns, especially the capital Khartoum, where millions of civilians are facing shortages of basic necessities. A 72-hour ceasefire between the rival forces has offered some respite, allowing many Sudanese to flee the country and diplomats’ and other foreign nationals’ evacuation. But clashes still continue and mediators have struggled to convince the two sides to get back to talks. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa Program director. They discuss what’s behind the power struggle between the Sudanese armed forces and the RSF, and between the men – General Abel Fattah al-Burhan and Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo – in command of each. They discuss the devastation a full-scale civil war would cause, efforts by the U.S., Gulf power and African leaders to mediate, and the conflict’s geopolitics and risk of outside involvement. They look back at how Sudan’s transition unravelled and the challenges facing talks and getting to civilian rule if the parties do get back to the table.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Sudan country page and our latest statement; Stopping Sudan’s Descent into Full-Blown Civil War.

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War in Sudan

Sat, 22 Apr 2023 11:50:51 GMT

Two rival armies are driving Sudan toward full-blown civil war. Fighting between the Sudanese armed forces, led by Abdelfattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary force led by Mohamed “Hemedti” Hamdan Dagalo, is tearing apart cities and towns across the country, including the capital Khartoum. The battles have already killed hundreds of civilians and left millions more facing shortages of basic necessities. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Senior Sudan Analyst Shewit Woldemichael and Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa Project Director Alan Boswell to look at the background to the crisis and what can be done to halt the fighting. They look at evolving tensions between the army and the RSF since Sudan’s 2019 popular uprising, especially since the 2021 coup, when Burhan and Hemedti seized full control of the state from civilians with whom they had been sharing power. They explain the trigger for the fighting: a dispute over how to integrate the RSF into regular army ranks. They discuss how Hemedti, a figure from outside Sudan’s traditional Nile elites, emerged as an influential power broker and what he wants in the confrontation with Burhan. They also talk about the two military leaders’ foreign ties, the danger that outside powers will get sucked into Sudan’s conflict and prospects for mediation. Finally, they ask what went wrong with Sudan’s transition after the 2019 uprising and whether external actors, particularly Western governments, could have done more to prevent its collapse.

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Drones and Diplomacy: Will Türkiye’s Elections Change its Middle-Power Activism?

Tue, 04 Apr 2023 10:31:27 GMT

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in power for two decades, faces a stiff challenge in Türkiye’s forthcoming election, which will take place only a few months after devastating earthquakes killed some 50,000 people. The vote comes at a time of evolving Turkish foreign affairs. Some years ago, Ankara was boxed in, its relations with its neighbours, the Gulf and some of its Western NATO allies fraught. Today, things look different. Ankara has gone some way to repair ties in the region. Its support has been pivotal to partners in the South Caucasus and Libya. It has developed an indigenous drone industry, with weapons sales heightening Türkiye’s influence abroad. While the Ukraine war has tested Ankara's balancing act between NATO membership and ties to Moscow, Erdoğan has notched up diplomatic successes, notably helping the UN broker a Ukraine-Russia deal that gets Ukrainian grain onto global markets via the Black Sea.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Nigar Göksel, Crisis Group’s project director for Türkiye, to discuss Ankara’s foreign policy and whether a change in government would bring a change in policy. They look at Türkiye’s delicate balancing act in Ukraine, supporting Kyiv while keeping lines of communication open to the Kremlin. They discuss several hotspots where Türkiye is involved: the country’s struggles against Kurdish militants in Syria and Iraq, its troops deployed to enforce a ceasefire in north west Syria, and its role in the standoff between Azerbaijan and Armenia. They talk about the dramatic expansion in Turkiye’s drone production and what influence weapons sales to many countries give Ankara. They also talk about Erdoğan’s pivot away from “precious loneliness” toward mending relations with neighbours and Gulf capitals. They talk about what Turkiye’s more assertive foreign policy says about how non-Western middle powers can defend their interests in a changing global order.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our Türkiye country page.

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Somalia’s Latest Battles Against Al-Shabaab

Fri, 24 Mar 2023 16:16:56 GMT

Over recent months, the Somali army, backed by clan militias, has recaptured areas in central Somalia from Al-Shabaab militants. Profiting from local anger at Al-Shabaab’s predation, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s government has deployed Somali forces to Hirshabelle and Galmudug states, just north of the capital, Mogadishu, to fight militants. The campaign has reversed some of Al-Shabaab’s gains of the past few years, forcing the militants out of several areas, including some important towns. Yet big challenges remain. Al-Shabaab continues to mount resistance in parts of central Somalia. In recaptured areas, the government must ensure disputes among clans do not flare up again and show locals its value – in the short term by delivering aid and over time by reestablishing services like health and education. Fighting Al-Shabaab in its southern strongholds – the government’s planned next phase of operations – will likely be a tougher slog. The al-Qaeda linked insurgency has weathered previous offensives only to bounce back.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group's senior analyst for East Africa, about this latest fight against Al-Shabaab and the challenges that lie ahead. They discuss the clan politics in central Somalia that have enabled the government’s offensive. They look at the challenges in stabilising recaptured areas and curbing Al-Shabaab's formidable revenue generation, including its parallel tax system. They look at the drought blighting parts of the country and how Al-Shabaab’s predation, in combination with water shortages, has forced a wave of displacement. They also discuss fighting – separate to the war with Al-Shabaab – on the edge of Somaliland, a northern region that declared independence in 1991. They ask whether the latest offensive against Al-Shabaab stands any hope of dealing the Islamists a decisive blow, or whether it is better seen as a way to weaken the group and force it to negotiate.

For more in-depth analysis of the topics discussed in this episode, make sure to check out our recent briefing, Sustaining Gains in Somalia’s Offensive against Al-Shabaab and our Somalia country page.

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Iran: A Deal with Saudi Arabia, Closer Ties to Russia and the Looming Nuclear Crisis

Fri, 17 Mar 2023 21:06:39 GMT

Last week, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to restore diplomatic relations in a deal brokered by China. The two countries had broken off ties in 2016, after Saudi authorities executed a prominent Shiite cleric and dissident, prompting protesters in Tehran to sack the Saudi embassy. Last week’s deal follows several rounds of talks, hosted by Iraq and Oman over recent years, between Iranian and Saudi officials. It comes at a time of deepening Iranian ties to Russia, with Iran sending weapons to help Moscow’s war efforts in Ukraine. In contrast, Tehran’s relations with Europe and the U.S. are at a new low, due partly to anger in Western capitals at the Islamic Republic’s brutal repression of the protests, often led by young women, that have engulfed the country over recent months. Western leaders are incensed, too, by Iran’s support for Russia in Ukraine. Talks over Iran’s nuclear program are on hold, even as it has advanced dramatically.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s Iran project director and senior adviser to the president, to shed light on the Saudi-Iranian deal, Tehran’s evolving foreign relations and the looming crisis over its nuclear program. They discuss the recent agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia and what both sides, and China, get from the deal. They look at efforts to end Yemen’s war and Iran’s influence over Huthi rebels. They talk about what is driving the change in Iran's relations with Russia. They also discuss Iran's worsening relations with Europe and the U.S. and prospects for diplomacy to head off a confrontation over its rapidly advancing nuclear capability.

For more on the situation, check out our latest Q&A How Beijing Helped Riyadh and Tehran Reach a Detente and Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Iran country page.

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Will the Ukraine War Blow U.S.-China Relations Further Off Course?

Sat, 11 Mar 2023 07:51:57 GMT

The past few weeks have seen U.S.-China tensions ratchet up. In early February, a U.S. fighter jet shot down what Washington concluded was a Chinese spy balloon off the east coast of the U.S., prompting loud condemnations from Beijing. Later that month, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, after meeting with top Chinese diplomat Wang Yi at the Munich Security Conference, warned that China was considering giving lethal aid to Russia for its war efforts in Ukraine. He warned of serious consequences for Beijing if that happened. U.S.-China relations had seemed to be looking up after a meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jingping in November last year. These past few weeks, however, mark further deterioration, with some particularly harsh rhetoric from Beijing over the past few days.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Amanda Hsiao, Crisis Group's China expert, and Stephen Pomper, Crisis Group’s chief of policy, to talk about what to make of China's potential involvement in the Ukraine war, U.S.-China relations and tensions over Taiwan. They explore how Beijing sees its relations with Moscow, its stance on the Ukraine conflict and whether it is likely to send weapons, given it also appears reluctant to alienate Europeans. They discuss the spy balloon incident and heightened tensions between the US and China. They then talk about Chinese and U.S. policy toward Taiwan, particularly since the controversial August 2022 visit by then Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi to the island, what to expect in the forthcoming Taiwanese presidential elections and how the Ukraine war is shaping calculations over the island.

For more on the situation, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our China and Taiwan country page, and for more analysis on global issues, see our Multilateral Diplomacy page.

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Another Year of War in Ukraine?

Fri, 24 Feb 2023 11:19:24 GMT

One year into Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, prospects for a settlement remain bleak. On 21 February, President Vladimir Putin announced in a belligerent yearly address that he would suspend Russia’s participation in New START, its last remaining nuclear arms control treaty with the U.S. The speech followed U.S. President Joe Biden’s surprise visit to Kyiv, during which he reaffirmed Washington’s determination to support Ukraine. Top U.S. officials also warned that China was considering sending “lethal support” to Russia’s war efforts, which thus far it has avoided doing. Fierce fighting continues along front lines in Ukraine’s south and east, with Russian forces making small gains but seemingly incurring massive losses. Whether they can break Ukrainian lines before the tanks that several Western nations have promised Ukraine arrive, and what difference those tanks will make on the battlefield, remain to be seen.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Olga Oliker, Crisis Group's program director for Europe and Central Asia, joins Richard Atwood to assess where things stand. They discuss Putin’s yearly address and the significance of Russia suspending its participation in New START. They talk about the front lines in Ukraine and both sides’ ability to sustain their war effort. Olga talks about her recent visit to areas Ukrainian forces have recaptured from Russia and the challenges of reconstruction. They assess the mood in Kyiv, Moscow and Western capitals, and the potential impact of Chinese weapons and ammunition on the war. They also discuss both sides’ war goals, the difficulties of trying to hold the Kremlin accountable and what to watch in the months ahead.

For more on the situation in Ukraine, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page.

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Insecurity and Identity Politics Ahead of Nigeria’s Vote

Fri, 17 Feb 2023 18:21:10 GMT

Nigerians will go to the polls on 25 February to elect a new president. The election is shaping up as a three-way contest between Bola Tinubu, a veteran Nigerian politician from the ruling All Progressives Congress party, Atiku Abubakar, a former vice president, and Peter Obi, who appears to have won over many young Nigerians. A cash crisis, caused by a bungled government policy to replace old banknotes, plus fuel shortages look set to complicate the vote. The country also grapples with an array of security threats – jihadist insurgencies in the north east, kidnapping and banditry especially in the north west, herder-farmer violence, and, in the south west, separatist violence, including against election staff. Despite a pact among the presidential candidates to avoid hate speech, their supporters often resort to divisive rhetoric.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Ayo Obe, Crisis Group’s Trustee and a Lagos-based lawyer and human rights activist, and Nnamdi Obasi, Crisis Group’s senior Nigeria adviser, about the forthcoming vote. They look at the three main contenders, their campaigns and their prospects. They also discuss the impact of rampant insecurity on the vote and why identity politics look set to shape this election more than previous ones. They talk about the potential fallout from the cash crunch, concerns about vote-buying and risks of post-election disputes. Finally, they reflect on incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari’s legacy and the challenges facing his successor.

For more on the situation in Nigeria, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Nigeria country page, and our recent report Mitigating Risks of Violence in Nigeria’s 2023 Elections.

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Mark Malloch-Brown on the Ukraine War and Challenges to Open Societies

Fri, 10 Feb 2023 16:54:40 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Mark Malloch-Brown, president of Open Society Foundations (OSF), Crisis Group trustee, and former UN Deputy Secretary-General and UN Development Programme administrator, about challenges facing open societies today. They talk about the erosion of democracy around the world, including in the West, authoritarians’ increasing global influence and the challenge some of the more competent autocrats’ governance poses. They discuss the war in Ukraine, Western support to Kyiv, risks of escalation as new weaponry pours in, and whether trying to hold the Kremlin accountable for the crime of aggression could close avenues to a settlement. They also talk about what Western powers and international financial institutions can do to help poor countries suffering from rising inflation, debt burdens and, often, stress related to climate change. They also discuss how organisations like OSF and Crisis Group, which in some ways reflect the heady assumptions of the post-Cold War years, should adapt to a world very different to the one many people back then expected to emerge.

For more on the situation in Ukraine, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page, and for more analysis on global issues, see our Multilateral Diplomacy page.

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Israel-Palestine’s Worsening Violence and Despair

Fri, 03 Feb 2023 17:55:37 GMT

On Friday last week, a Palestinian gunman killed seven civilians in occupied East Jerusalem, the deadliest such attack for years. The shooting came the day after a raid by Israeli forces in a refugee camp in the West Bank city of Jenin, also the deadliest such operation for years. The week’s violence follows months in which more Palestinians died, according to human rights groups, than in the past almost two decades. More frequent Israeli raids, which Israel says aim to root out Palestinian militants behind an increasing number of attacks on Israelis, often provoke gun battles in West Bank cities. Militants have died, but also civilians, including many young Palestinians. In West Bank cities, new militias have formed, attracting young Palestinians angry not only at Israel but also at their own political leadership. Meanwhile, the new Israeli government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which is the most right-wing in Israeli history and comprises openly Jewish nationalist and anti-Palestinian ministers, promises an even tougher line on Palestinians.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Mairav Zonszein and Tahani Mustafa, Crisis Group’s Israel/Palestine experts, about the latest spike in violence. They talk about Israel’s new government, its efforts to curb judicial power and what it might mean for policy toward the Palestinians. They also talk about Palestinian politics, many Palestinians’ disillusionment at their leadership, the emergence of new militias in West Bank cities and what might happen when ageing Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas passes from the political scene. They ask whether there is any hope of change in policy from Washington and other Western capitals following U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s trip to the region this past week. They also talk about flashpoints in the months ahead.

For more on the situation, check out our latest report Managing Palestine’s Looming Leadership Transition and Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Israel/Palestine page

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Great Lakes Tensions Spike After Rwanda Nearly Downs a Congolese Fighter Jet

Fri, 27 Jan 2023 17:10:01 GMT

On 24 January, Rwanda's defence forces fired a missile at a DR Congo army jet for allegedly violating Rwandan airspace. Congolese officials called the incident an “act of war”. The shooting has ratcheted up already high tensions between Rwandan and Congolese authorities, with the two governments at loggerheads since the resurgence of the M23 rebel group in late 2021. The M23 was defeated in 2013 but has re-emerged in the past year, taking control of significant areas in the eastern DR Congo’s North Kivu region. Kinshasa accuses Kigali of supporting the M23. Rwanda denies the allegations, though repeated UN reports offer strong evidence that the rebels are, indeed, supported by Rwanda. The fighting has triggered a humanitarian crisis, with hundreds of thousands displaced, many in the last few months.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Richard Moncrieff, Crisis Group’s interim Great Lakes project director, about the resurgence of the M23 in the DRC and how the conflict could affect the stability of the wider Great Lakes region. They talk about the origins of the M23, what its leaders want and its ties to Rwanda. They discuss how the conflict has worsened already fragile Rwandan-Congolese relations. They also delve into the efforts of the East African Community to defuse tensions in the DRC, particularly Kenya’s military and diplomatic involvement in the region, and examine the risks that the crisis in the DRC could trigger a wider conflagration.

For more on the situation, check out Crisis Group’s latest Q&A “A Dangerous Escalation in the Great Lakes” and our extensive analysis on our Great Lakes regional page.

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Bonus Episode: Eritrea’s Long Bitter Feud with Ethiopia’s Tigray

Fri, 20 Jan 2023 13:19:05 GMT

Today we're bringing you a bonus episode on Ethiopia and Eritrea from Crisis Group's The Horn podcast.

The contemporary rivalry between Eritrea and Tigray goes back several decades. After an almost-17-year-long civil war starting in the mid-1970s, the Eritrean EPLF and Tigrayan TPLF jointly defeated Ethiopia’s Derg regime in 1991, resulting in Eritrea’s independence and the TPLF taking power in Ethiopia. Despite their joint achievement, their already-complicated relations soon started to sour. A growing power struggle, as well as unresolved territorial disputes between the two sides, led to a deadly border war lasting from 1998 to 2000. Meanwhile, an increasingly repressive Eritrean regime found itself regionally and globally isolated. A new administration in Ethiopia under Abiy Ahmed signed a peace agreement with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki in 2018, formally ending the border war. However, this rapprochement between Addis Ababa and Asmara also appeared to pave the way for Ethiopia’s civil war, with Eritrea allying with Ethiopia’s federal government in the war against Tigrayan forces in northern Ethiopia that started in 2020.

In this episode of The Horn, Alan is joined by Michael Woldemariam, associate professor at the University of Maryland’s School of Public Policy, to take a deep dive into the long and tumultuous relationship between Eritrea and Tigray to understand Eritrea’s motives and objectives in the Ethiopian conflict. They talk about the origins of the relations between the EPLF and the TPLF and their shared struggle against Ethiopia’s Derg regime from the 1970s to 1991. They unpack how relations between the two sides soured in a struggle for power and authority, culminating in the deadly border clashes starting in 1998. They also discuss how Eritrean President Afwerki’s motivations in the conflict in northern Ethiopia have shifted over time. Finally, they talk about how to navigate Eritrea’s role while trying to end the conflict in Tigray.

Please note that this episode was recorded before the 2 November truce agreement between Ethiopia’s federal government and Tigray’s leaders.

For more in-depth analysis on Ethiopia and Eritrea, make sure to check out our Horn of Africa regional page.

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Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2023

Sun, 15 Jan 2023 11:36:13 GMT

On this week’s Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood is joined by Comfort Ero, Crisis Group’s president and CEO, and Stephen Pomper, chief of policy, to reflect on 2022 and look ahead to 2023. They talk through “10 Conflicts to Watch”, Crisis Group’s yearly flagship commentary co-published with Foreign Policy magazine. They discuss Russia’s war in Ukraine, its global ramifications and what it says about global affairs today. They also take a look at other flashpoints on the list, which this year includes Ukraine, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Iran, Yemen, Ethiopia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Sahel, Haiti, Pakistan and Taiwan. Lastly, they talk about how we put the list together and, despite a generally gloomy and unsettling year, where we can look for signs of hope.

For more information, check out our flagship commentary, by Comfort Ero and Richard Atwood, with Foreign Policy magazine: “10 Conflicts to Watch in 2023” you can also check out Crisis Group’s Twitter thread 10 Reasons For Hope in 2023.

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Can Foreign Forces Tackle Haiti’s Gangs?

Fri, 09 Dec 2022 17:40:40 GMT

Haiti has long suffered political crises, gang violence and natural disasters, but the past two years have been especially cruel. In July 2021, gunmen murdered then President Jovenel Moïse in his home in the capital Port-Au-Prince. Ariel Henry took over as prime minister, supposed to shepard the country to elections. But rampant violence renders a credible vote impossible, and Henry’s dismissal of the election commission has hardly helped. Gang violence has spiralled, as rival gangs battle for control of parts of Port-au-Prince. Some estimates suggest gangs control some 60 per cent of the capital, as well as all main roads leading to the city and, for almost two months, the country’s main port. Protesters have repeatedly taken to the streets, angered at the gang violence and at hikes in fuel prices, triggered by Henry’s removal of subsidies. With shortages of drinking water, cholera is spreading and difficult to curb in gang-controlled areas. In early October, Henry requested that foreign troops deploy to help Haitian police take on gangs. Many Haitians, including Henry’s political opponents, oppose another intervention after repeated failures of foreign involvement in the past, though some Haitians, particularly in areas most affected by gang violence, are more supportive, seemingly out of sheer desperation.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Renata Segura, Crisis Group’s deputy Latin America and Caribbean director, and Diego Da Rin, consulting Haiti expert, about the crisis. They talk about what life is like under gang control, the fight between the two main gang coalitions, G9 and G-PEP, as well as their leaders’ backgrounds and links to Haiti’s politics. They discuss Haiti’s political crisis and Ariel Henry’s rule since Moïse’s killing. They also talk about the prospect of foreign forces deploying to Haiti, the challenges any mission would face, and whether it could help loosen the grip of Haiti’s gangs over much of the country and bring a measure of stability for long-suffering Haitians.

For more on the situation in Haiti, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Haiti country page.

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No End in Sight in Ukraine?

Fri, 02 Dec 2022 17:09:46 GMT

Winter is setting in as the one-year anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches. Recent months have seen Ukrainian forces advance, but whether front lines will continue to shift as the weather changes remains unclear. Russia, which has mobilised some 300,000 new soldiers in recent months, has reportedly sent them to the front lines with little preparation. It claims to have annexed large parts of its neighbour, brandishes nuclear threats and has embarked on a weeks-long bombardment of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing blackouts across much of the country. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, speaking from a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Bucharest, accused Russia of “weaponising winter” to break the Ukrainian people’s will and the unity of Kyiv's Western backers. For now, however, Western capitals appear in no mood to reduce their support to Ukraine.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia program director, about where Russia’s war in Ukraine might be headed next. They talk about how the winter might affect battlefield dynamics and the impact of Russia’s bombardment of Ukrainian energy infrastructure. They discuss whether Russia might yet gamble on using a nuclear weapon and what Western and other governments can do to deter that. They ask whether opinion around the world toward the war is changing. They look at NATO policy and what an acceptable settlement for Ukraine and Western capitals might look like. Finally, as U.S. President Joe Biden says he would be prepared to meet his Russian counterpart to talk about Ukraine, they ask whether any space exists for diplomacy to find a way to end the war.

For more on the situation in Ukraine, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page.

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Football and Politics in the Gulf

Fri, 25 Nov 2022 18:00:48 GMT

The 2022 FIFA World Cup kicked off this week in the Qatari capital Doha. The tournament comes at a time of fast-evolving politics in the region. Just a few years ago, a spat within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) saw Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) break diplomatic ties with and blockade Qatar, frustrated in part by Doha’s support for Islamists across the Middle East and North Africa. The crisis was mostly resolved in early 2021, and diplomacy ahead of the World Cup has further calmed intra-GCC relations, though differences remain, particularly between Qatar and the UAE. The World Cup also comes amid other changes nearby: Iran is convulsed by mass protests; talks involving Tehran and world powers over Iran’s nuclear program have fizzled out; and Benjamin Netanyahu looks set to return to power in Israel at the helm of the most right wing government in the country’s history – all at a time when Gulf monarchies have taken some steps to calm tensions with Iran and, in some cases, improve relations with Israel. It also comes amid Saudi-U.S. friction. Riyadh’s decision, together with other oil producers, to cut oil production against Washington’s wishes has further tested relations that were already strained over the 2018 murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, for which U.S. intelligence blames powerful Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Joost Hiltermann and Dina Esfandiary, Crisis Group’s Middle East & North Africa director and senior adviser, respectively, to talk about the World Cup and Gulf Arab states’ external relations. They discuss how ties between countries in the region have evolved since the GCC spat and their different interests in the region. They examine how Gulf Arab countries view developments in Yemen and Iran and the changing relationship between some Gulf capitals and Israel. Finally, they look at the ups and downs of U.S.-Saudi ties during U.S. President Joe Biden’s tenure in office thus far. They talk about how Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region are navigating Washington’s changing role in the region, big-power tensions and multipolarity. They discuss Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s plans for Saudi Arabia and ask what the future holds for relations between Riyadh and Washington.

For more on the situation in the Gulf region, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Gulf and Arabian Peninsula regional page.

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Finland's FM Pekka Haavisto on the Ukraine War, European Security and Peacemaking Elsewhere

Fri, 18 Nov 2022 16:41:10 GMT

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood is joined by Finland's Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto for a wide-ranging discussion from the war in Ukraine to peacemaking efforts in the Horn of Africa and the Middle East. They talk about Western support for Ukraine and the danger that Russia uses nuclear weapons. They discuss the role of diplomacy and prospects for a mediated settlement to the war. They also look at how the Ukraine war has affected popular opinion in Finland, the country’s application for NATO membership and the war’s impact on Europe’s security architecture more broadly. They discuss its global reverberations, including on peacemaking efforts elsewhere and how Western capitals have competed with Russia and China in their efforts to shore up support in the Global South. They discuss crises in the Horn of Africa, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki’s role in the region and prospects of peace in Ethiopia and Somalia. They also talk about the Israel-Palestine conflict and European policy in the Middle East.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our website.

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Ethiopia’s Tigray War: After the Cessation of Hostilities, What Next?

Thu, 10 Nov 2022 20:32:46 GMT

On 2 November, the Ethiopian federal government and Tigrayan forces reached an agreement to cease hostilities and end almost two years of bloody war in Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region. The truce came after the Ethiopian army, together with Eritrean troops and forces from the Amhara region, which borders Tigray, made rapid advances into Tigray over recent weeks. It raises hopes that peace in Tigray might be within reach and that the region’s humanitarian crisis – amplified by a federal blockade on aid throughout much of the war – can finally be addressed. However, peace talks did not include Eritrea, despite its involvement in the war, and the deal includes no provisions about what will happen to the Eritrean forces in Tigray. It does involve other major concessions for the Tigrayans, who agreed to fully disarm within a month.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Africa director, to talk about the cessation of hostilities and its implications. They talk about the events leading to the truce, Ethiopia’s recent offensive in the Tigray region, Eritrea’s involvement in the conflict and how all sides are likely to view and respond to the agreement. They address the role of the African Union and its envoy, former Nigerian President Olesugun Obasanjo, in brokering the agreement. They also talk about the influence of external actors in Ethiopia and how the support of countries like the United Arab Emirates and Türkiye for the Ethiopian government shaped battlefield dynamics. They ask what went wrong with a transition in Ethiopia that had generated enormous optimism in its early years, and what the coming years might bring for politics in the Horn of Africa at a moment of considerable flux.

For more on the situation in Ethiopia, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ethiopia country page.

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Lula and Latin America’s Leftward Lurch

Sat, 05 Nov 2022 13:19:56 GMT

Last Sunday in Brazil, former leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won a tightly fought presidential run-off against incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro’s supporters took to the streets in angry protest against Lula. Although Bolsonaro narrowly lost out, he and the populist movement he has whipped up enjoy considerable support, hold a legislative majority and several key governorships, and remain a powerful force in Brazilian politics. Lula’s success comes at the heels of another leftist victory in Latin America – that of Gustavo Petro in Colombia. Petro promises “total peace” in Colombia, pledging to talk to the country’s remaining guerrilla movement and even drug traffickers to bring peace to the country’s violence-torn countryside. Lula and Petro are part of a crop of new leftist leaders across the continent, which though themselves diverse seem to mark a departure from the old authoritarian left at the helm in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela. To some degree, their coming to power narrows the polarisation in Latin America that has undercut regional cooperation and could reinvigorate efforts to resolve Venezuela’s protracted political standoff, curb the political repression by Daniel Ortega’s government in Nicaragua or tackle Haiti’s violent collapse. At home, though, Latin America’s new leftist leaders face huge challenges, with stagnant economies, big hikes in living costs and, in places, rampant criminal violence driving the discontent that right populists tend to profit from.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Ivan Briscoe and Renata Segura, Crisis Group’s Latin America director and deputy director, about Lula’s victory in Brazil and what the leftward shift in Latin American politics means for the region. They talk about the future of Bolsonaro and his movement. They also talk about Petro’s ambitious plans for Colombia but his seeming pragmatism in rolling them out, his restoration of relations with neighbouring Venezuela and how the U.S. has responded to his policies so far. They discuss if the new political leadership on the continent can help address some of the continent’s worst crises. They also talk about the continent’s political future – will left-wing governments endure or will the populist right bounce back?

For more on the situation in Brazil and Latin America, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Latin America and Caribbean regional page.

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After the Crackdowns, is Chad’s Transition Unravelling?

Fri, 28 Oct 2022 17:00:14 GMT

On 20 October, Chadian security forces killed more than 50 protesters on the streets of Chad’s capital N’Djamena and other cities and towns. Demonstrators had taken to the streets in anger at an extension of the country’s transitional period that allows President Mahamat Déby to hold power for another two years and then possibly contest elections, despite his previous pledges to stand down. Mahamat Déby assumed power at the head of a transitional military council after his father, Idriss Déby, who had ruled Chad for 30 years, died when Chadian forces were fighting rebels in the country’s north. Initially, Mahamat Déby seemed to mark a break from the past: space for political debate opened up, some exiled opposition leaders returned to Chad, and talks with rebels got under way. Over the past few months, though, the most powerful rebel groups have rejected the deal that emerged from those talks and, when a national dialogue started in N’Djamena, the main opposition party and civil society organisations chose not to participate. Then came the announcement that junta members, including Déby, could run for elections, which triggered protests and the crackdown.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Enrica Picco, Crisis Group’s Central Africa director, about where Chad’s transition is headed. They look at the violence against protesters and what options remain for the country’s political opposition. They also talk about the various Chadian rebel groups, many based in Libya and some of whose leaders are part of Deby’s family, that arguably pose a graver threat to Deby’s rule than his civilian opponents. They discuss Mahamat Déby’s ascendancy to power after the death of his father, the influence of Chad’s powerful military in backing him and how Déby has shaped politics in the country thus far. They also look at how regional actors, including the African Union, and other foreign powers, notably France, which traditionally enjoys close ties to the Chadian government, have responded to the violence. They discuss what people should be watching in the months ahead.

For more on the situation in Chad, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Chad country page.

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Can a New UN Envoy Help Resolve Libya’s Political Crisis?

Fri, 21 Oct 2022 15:08:06 GMT

Clashes between rival factions rocked Libyan capital Tripoli over the summer. The fighting pit forces loyal to UN-backed Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dabaiba against supporters of Fathi Bashagha, who last March was appointed prime minister by Libya’s eastern parliament and has formed an alliance with Khalifa Haftar, a powerful commander from the east. The clashes were triggered by a march on Tripoli by Bashaga’s loyalists, the latest in a series of attempts to oust Dabaiba, initially through political means and now by force. Armed factions in Tripoli came to Dabaiba’s defence and violence has now largely subsided, but Libya remains divided into rival governments. Foreign powers, who two years ago appeared to be putting aside their differences over Libya, are again divided on what the way forward should be. Turkey and Egypt, in particular, appear to be viewing the crisis in zero-sum terms, with Cairo particularly incensed by a maritime deal Dabaiba has just signed with Ankara. The new UN envoy, former Senegalese Minister Abdulaye Bathily, who formally starts his role this week, has his work cut out.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood talks with Claudia Gazzini, Crisis Group’s Libya expert, about the country’s impasse. They discuss prospects for resolving the standoff between Dabaiba and Bashagha and what their next moves, and those of Haftar, might be. They look at how foreign powers view the crisis, and the impact of Egypt-Turkey tensions and the latest maritime deal. They assess how likely another flare-up of violence is. They also examine whether the new UN envoy can mend the deep rifts that continue to divide the country and what his immediate priorities should be.

For more on the situation in Libya, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Libya country page.

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An Escalatory Spiral in Ukraine?

Fri, 14 Oct 2022 16:08:08 GMT

The war in Ukraine took another nasty turn this week. Last Saturday, a blast destroyed parts of the Kerch bridge, which links Russian-occupied Crimea with Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed Ukraine for the explosion and announced retaliatory strikes on cities throughout Ukraine. This latest escalation comes after Ukrainian military gains in September prompted Putin to announce a partial mobilisation of fresh Russian forces and the annexation of several partly Russian-held regions in eastern Ukraine. He also made his most explicit nuclear threats yet.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood speaks with Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia program director, to discuss where things stand on the battlefield, where the conflict might be headed and the peril of further escalation. They talk about Russia’s recent escalatory steps and Moscow’s announcement of General Sergey Surovikin, who led Russia’s brutal campaign in Syria, as new commander for Russia’s Ukraine operations. They also look at the growing criticism in Moscow of Russia’s war efforts. They examine what Putin’s repeated escalations in response to Ukrainian gains means for the risks of a direct confrontation with NATO and nuclear weapons use. They also discuss the divided response from European countries on whether to welcome in Russians fleeing the Kremlin’s mobilisation.

For more on the situation in Ukraine, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page and our recent statement Staying the Course in Ukraine.

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Coup in Burkina, Russia in Mali and a New Chapter in the Sahel?

Fri, 07 Oct 2022 15:59:20 GMT

On 30 September, a group of young army captains, led by Ibrahim Traoré, seized power in Burkina Faso. They ousted Interim President Paul-Henri Damiba, who himself had come to power in a coup last January. In a televised speech, Traoré blamed Damiba for failing to check terrorism and violence. A few days before the coup, Islamist militants had attacked an army convoy carrying humanitarian aid to the besieged northern city of Djibo. The coup comes at a difficult moment not only for Burkina but also for the Sahel more broadly. Mali has also seen successive coups driven partly by anger at the government’s and its Western partners’ failure to contain rampant insecurity. Mali’s authorities have turned to Russia for help, with forces from the Russian security company, Wagner, which allegedly has close ties to the Kremlin, now reportedly fighting alongside the Malian army. Partly as a result, relations between Bamako and Western capitals, notably France, have tanked. French troops have pulled out of Mali after almost a decade of operations against militants.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Sahel Project Director Jean-Hervé Jezequel to discuss what’s happening in Burkina Faso and the rest of the Sahel. They talk about Ibrahim Traoré, the coup leader, and why he seized power. They discuss how militant groups continue to extend their reach and recruit across rural areas of Burkina. They look at the legacy of a decade of French military operations in the region. They also explore Russia’s increasing influence and how governments should navigate the increasing acrimony between Russia and the West and avoid the region becoming a battleground for major powers. They explore what a strategy against Islamist militants that subordinates military operations to politics might look like.

For more on the situation in the Sahel, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Sahel region page.

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The U.S. and the Taliban after the Killing of al-Qaeda Leader Ayman al-Zawahiri

Fri, 30 Sep 2022 15:20:47 GMT

On 31 July, a U.S. drone strike killed al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in the Afghan capital Kabul. Zawahiri appears to have been living in a house maintained by the family of powerful Taliban Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani. His death came almost a year after U.S. troops pulled out of Afghanistan and the Taliban routed the former Afghan security forces and seized power. The Taliban’s uncompromising rule over the past year has seen girls denied their right to education, many other rights and freedoms curtailed and power tightly guarded within the Taliban movement. The Afghan economy has collapsed, owing in large part to the U.S. and other countries’ freezing Afghan Central Bank assets, keeping sanctions against the Taliban in place and denying the country non-humanitarian aid. Levels of violence across the country are mostly down, but Afghans’ plight is desperate, with a grave humanitarian crisis set to worsen over the winter. The Taliban’s apparent harbouring of Zawahiri seems unlikely to smooth relations between the new authorities in Kabul and the outside world.

This week on Hold your Fire! Richard Atwood speaks with Crisis Group’s Asia Program Director Laurel Miller about U.S. policy in Afghanistan and the Taliban’s broader foreign relations after Zawahiri’s killing. They discuss what his presence and death in Kabul mean for U.S. policy and what they say about the threat posed by transnational militants sheltering in Afghanistan. They look into how countries in the region are seeking to protect their interests in Afghanistan, including by engaging with the de facto Taliban authorities, and how those countries – particularly Pakistan, which has faced an uptick of violence in the past year – view the danger from foreign militants in Afghanistan. They also look in depth at Washington’s goals in Afghanistan a year after the withdrawal and what balance it should strike between engaging the Taliban or seeking to isolate them. Just over a year after the U.S. withdrawal and Taliban takeover, they reflect back on Washington’s decision to pull out troops.

For more on the situation in Afghanistan, check out Crisis Group’s recent report Afghanistan’s Security Challenges under the Taliban.

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Back to War in Ethiopia

Fri, 23 Sep 2022 15:49:07 GMT

Just a few months back, a humanitarian truce in Ethiopia offered a glimmer of hope that an end might be in sight to the war in and around the country’s northern Tigray region. Fighting pitted the federal government, forces from the Amhara region, bordering Tigray, and Eritrean troops on one hand, against Tigrayan forces on the other. In March, the federal government and Tigrayan leaders announced a cessation of hostilities. Formal peace talks were supposed to follow. But the last few weeks have seen the truce collapse and conflict resume across several front lines, with Tigrayan leaders accusing Eritrean forces of advancing en masse. The return to the battlefield marks another nasty turn in a war that has had a catastrophic human toll – a UN report this week points to war crimes by all sides – but garners relatively little international attention.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood catches up with Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Ethiopia William Davison to make sense of what’s happening. They discuss why the truce failed to hold over the summer, and notably why Tigrayan leaders chafe at the federal government’s refusal to restore basic services – electricity, telecommunications and banking – in Tigray. They talk about the war’s human toll and this past week’s UN human rights experts’ report. They examine the thorny challenges to peace talks, especially the disputed territory of Western Tigray, part of the region since the 1990s but captured by Amhara forces in the war’s early days. They talk about Eritrea’s role and whether the Eritrean president Isaias Afwerki would accept any deal that left the Tigrayan leadership in place. They also talk about both sides’ apparent goals – for the Ethiopian government and allied forces, subduing the Tigrayan leadership; for Tigrayan forces, breaking the siege – and why neither is likely to prevail militarily any time soon. Finally, they discuss the prospects for bringing the parties back to the table, and what foreign diplomats involved can do.

For more on the situation in Tigray, check out Crisis Group’s recent statement: Avoiding the Abyss as War Resumes in Northern Ethiopia.

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What to Watch at the UN General Assembly, plus Ukraine’s Kharkiv Offensive and the Armenia-Azerbaijan Border Clashes

Fri, 16 Sep 2022 16:37:00 GMT

World leaders are gathering this week in New York for UN General Assembly week, in an event that looks set to be overshadowed by Russia’s war in Ukraine and skyrocketing food and fuel prices. In a two-part episode, Richard talks first to Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia Program Director Olga Oliker to get the latest on Russia’s war in Ukraine, particularly how Ukrainian forces recaptured large chunks of Russian-held territory in the Kharkiv region in a matter of days, and what their advance might mean for the war. They also catch up on the recent clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and whether the fallout from the Ukraine war might have emboldened Baku.

Richard then talks to Crisis Group’s UN Director Richard Gowan about what we should be watching during UN General Assembly week. They talk about UN Security Council politics over Ukraine and how the world body, including the Secretary-General, has responded to the crisis more broadly. They also discuss other crises the UN is dealing with, from peacekeepers struggling in parts of Africa to UN envoys’ efforts in the Middle East and the UN’s role in Afghanistan. Lastly, they look at prospects for UN reform, what appetite there is on the UN Security Council, particularly among its permanent five members, for change and – more broadly – what we can expect of the world body in an era of fraught geopolitics and resurgent nationalism.

For more analysis ahead of the UN General Assembly’s 77th session, check out Crisis Group’s special briefing: Ten Challenges for the UN in 2022-2023.

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Iraq’s Political Crisis, Moqtada al-Sadr and a Divided Shia House

Fri, 09 Sep 2022 15:00:57 GMT

Almost a year since Iraq’s parliamentary elections in October 2021, the country’s political parties have struggled to form a new government. Despite doing well in the vote, the Sadrist Movement, led by powerful Shiite leader Muqtada al-Sadr, has been thwarted in its attempts to build a governing coalition, thanks to a decision by Iraq’s Supreme Court. The court required a two-thirds quorum to convene parliament to select a president, who in turn would nominate the prime minister. In protest, al-Sadr threatened to quit politics and withdrew his deputies from parliament. Days later, his supporters, who had occupied parliament and entered the presidential palace, clashed with paramilitary groups loyal to al-Sadr’s Shia rivals. The fighting was the worst the capital Baghdad had seen in years. Violence has abated for now, but it is far from clear whether Sadr and his rivals can reach agreement on a way forward.

In our first episode of Season 3 of Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Senior Iraq Analyst Lahib Higel to make sense of the political turmoil engulfing the country. They talk about how the crisis came about and why Sadr’s attempts to form a government have failed. They discuss the opposition he faces from his main political rivals, the coalition of Shia parties known as the “Coordination Framework”, which is backed by Iran, and look at Tehran’s hand in the crisis and Washington’s influence on Iraqi politics more broadly. They talk about the prospects for rapprochement between al-Sadr and his Shia rivals, as negotiations on a new government look set to resume amid calls for early elections. They also assess risks of another bout of fighting.

For more on the situation in Iraq, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Iraq country page.

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Season Finale: Ukraine and an Unsettling Few Months in Global Politics

Mon, 11 Jul 2022 10:59:00 GMT

In a special Hold Your Fire! episode to mark the end of Season Two, Richard Atwood speaks first to Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia director, for an update on the war in Ukraine, and then to Comfort Ero, its president and CEO, to reflect back on a rocky six months. Olga talks about the latest from the front lines in eastern and southern Ukraine. She and Richard discuss what is happening in Russian-occupied territories, whether Moscow’s goals in Ukraine have evolved, and potential scenarios for the months ahead. They look at the impact of Western sanctions on Russia and prospects for getting Ukrainian grain out of Black Sea ports. They also zoom out, and reflect on European security and relations with Russia more broadly.

Richard and Comfort then look back at an unsettling few months in global affairs. They reflect on the West’s Ukraine policy and the dilemmas Russia’s invasion poses for an organisation like Crisis Group in trying to find a sustainable end to the war. They talk about the global fallout, particularly reactions from around the world and why many non-Western leaders have distanced themselves from efforts to isolate Russia, and feel Western capitals should be investing more into addressing a perfect storm of other challenges – price hikes in food and fuel, poor countries’ debt burdens and the climate emergency. They also survey some of the world’s other wars and crises, many in danger of being neglected as attention focuses on Ukraine.

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India’s Response to Russia’s War in Ukraine

Tue, 05 Jul 2022 11:06:04 GMT

Since late February, when Russian forces crossed the Ukrainian border en masse, India has steered what it portrays as a neutral course on the war. It has abstained on UN votes condemning Russia’s invasion. New Delhi refuses to publicly blame Moscow for the crisis, even while emphasising India’s traditional respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity. It has maintained India’s historically close ties to Moscow, increasing Russian oil imports and receiving Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov on a diplomatic visit in April. Last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended, along with his Argentinian, Indonesian, Senegalese and South African counterparts, the summit of the G7 — or Group of Seven — which brought together leaders from seven industrialised countries, mostly NATO member states. On the agenda were the Ukraine war, its wider ramifications and ways to tackle rising commodity prices, as well as other global challenges.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks with Crisis Group trustee and former Indian Foreign Secretary and National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon about India’s foreign policy and its response to Russia’s war in Ukraine. They discuss Modi’s participation in the G7 summit and look back at what has motivated New Delhi’s response to the war, particularly its relations with Russia. They talk about the key priorities driving India’s foreign policy and its security dilemmas in Asia, notably its border dispute with China in the Himalayas and its long rivalry with Pakistan. They discuss India’s participation in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with Australia, Japan and the U.S. and what role the Quad might play in Asian security in the years ahead. They also talk about the contrast between the way New Delhi and other non-Western capitals view the Ukraine war, especially Western sanctions against Russia, and the views among NATO leaders.

For more on the war in Ukraine, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page.

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Finland’s NATO Application, Western Policy in Ukraine and the War’s Global Fallout

Fri, 24 Jun 2022 13:59:28 GMT

NATO leaders meeting next week in Madrid have a lot on their agendas. Russia’s war in Ukraine has entered its fifth month, with fierce fighting continuing along front lines in Ukraine’s east and south. Media coverage increasingly suggests differences of opinion are hurting the unity NATO powers have displayed thus far during the crisis. The war’s global fallout is becoming ever starker, as a commodities crisis and cost of living hikes start to bite in different parts of the world. NATO leaders will also discuss Finnish and Swedish applications to join the alliance, a reversal of both countries' decades-long position outside NATO. Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine rapidly swayed publics in both countries toward membership. Hurdles remain, however: Türkiye has so far blocked the application, criticising, amongst other things, what it believes is too lax a policy within the Scandinavian countries toward the Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK), a Turkish insurgent group that Türkiye, along with other countries, lists as a terrorist organisation.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks with former Finnish Prime Minister and Crisis Group trustee Alexander Stubb about the Finnish decision to join NATO, the war in Ukraine more broadly and its global ramifications. They break down the reasons behind the dramatic shifts in Swedish and Finnish public opinion, what a successful application would mean for the balance of force between NATO and Russia, and the likelihood of Turkish opposition scuppering their chances of membership. They talk more widely about NATO policy toward Ukraine, looking at how Western powers should respond to different scenarios. They also ask whether cracks are showing in NATO’s unity. They discuss global perceptions of the war and of Western policy, as an economic crisis partly fuelled by the war looms. They also look at why some leaders in the Global South have distanced themselves from the West’s efforts to isolate Russia and even blame Western sanctions as much as Russia’s aggression for fuel and food price hikes.

For more on the war in Ukraine, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page and read our latest commentary, 'Why Türkiye's Hindrance of NATO's Nordic Expansion Will Likely Drag On'.

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Rollercoaster Politics Ahead of Kenya's August Elections

Fri, 17 Jun 2022 16:18:35 GMT

Kenya’s presidential race has been turned upside down. After a high-profile split with President Kenyatta, his deputy William Ruto – despite being in government for the last nine years – is running on an anti-establishment platform. Having distanced himself from Kenyatta, Ruto is positioning himself as a man of the people, or the “hustler in chief”, opposing the political elite. Meanwhile, his main rival Raila Odinga – for decades an opposition leader and fierce critic of the government – has been endorsed by Kenyatta, thus becoming the establishment candidate. At the same time, while previous Kenyan polls have been shaped mostly by ethnic politics, the 2022 race has also seen economic issues come to the fore, with Ruto promising wide-ranging reforms. Whatever its outcome, the election matters not just in Kenya, but for the entire region, riddled by war and crises.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director, Murithi Mutiga, to talk about the campaign thus far and what to expect from the election. They discuss how things got so bitter between Kenyatta and Ruto, and what the bad blood might mean for the outcome of the vote. They talk about the main issues dominating the election, as Ruto plays on people’s economic frustrations and Odinga portrays himself as a unifier. They also discuss the risks of a disputed outcome, in a country that has suffered terrible bloodshed after contested results in the past. They look at the impact on Kenyan politics of indictments against Kenyatta and Ruto by the International Criminal Court, which were dropped in 2014 and 2016 respectively. They also look at how Nairobi views the war in Ukraine and the impact of the commodities crisis that war has triggered.

For more on the situation in Kenya, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Kenya country page, including our recent briefing “Kenya’s 2022 Election: High Stakes”.

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Peacemaking After Ukraine: A Look at Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya

Fri, 10 Jun 2022 17:17:36 GMT

How much have the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine reverberated across other warzones? Moscow is involved in several of the world’s conflicts, and the breakdown of relations between Russia and the West could endanger peacemaking elsewhere. In Nagorno-Karabakh, for example, Russian peacekeepers monitor a ceasefire brokered by Moscow between Armenia and Azerbaijan after the 2020 war. Moscow is also co-chair, along with France and the U.S., of the Minsk Group, the main format for peace talks over Nagorno-Karabakh. In Libya, the Kremlin backs military commander Khalifa Haftar, who leads forces in Libya’s east. Moscow is the only capital in the world to recognise as Libya’s prime minister Fathi Bashagha, who heads a rival cabinet to the internationally recognised government in Tripoli.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group’s teams on Nagorno-Karabakh and Libya respectively to discuss the Ukraine war’s impact on these crises and diplomatic efforts to resolve them. First, he talks to South Caucasus experts Olesya Vartanyan and Zaur Shiriyev about the role of Russian peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh, how their presence is perceived by Armenians and Azerbaijanis in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and how diplomacy around the conflict is evolving. After that, he speaks with Claudia Gazzini, Crisis Group’s Libya expert, about Russian involvement in Libya, the role of Russian private contractors from the Wagner Group and what motivated the Kremlin’s recognition of Bashagha. They also discuss how the Ukraine war has changed prospects for international diplomacy, given Russian involvement in previous talks aimed at helping resolve the conflict.

For more on these crises, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Caucasus regional page and our Libya country page.

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Who is Rodolfo Hernández, Colombia’s “TikTok King”, and Can He Win the Presidency?

Fri, 03 Jun 2022 14:05:21 GMT

Colombians decisively rejected mainstream political parties in the first round of their presidential election last week, with two anti-establishment candidates advancing to the run-off on 19 June. Gustavo Petro, a leftist former guerrilla, promises to overhaul the country’s socio-economic system. He’s drawn fierce opposition from Colombia’s financial elites. His opponent, Rodolfo Hernández, known as the “King of TikTok”, has connected with voters through an astute social media campaign and is often compared to former U.S. president Donald Trump for his populist and sometimes outlandish rhetoric. The candidate that came in third in the first round of voting, establishment-backed Federico Gutiérrez, has thrown his weight behind Hernández, arguably making him the favourite. It remains unclear how Hernández will tackle Colombia’s most acute challenges, notably the inequality and corruption that drove country-wide protests last year and rampant insecurity in the countryside. In May this year, an armed strike organised by a former paramilitary, now criminal, group, the Gulf Clan, paralysed several regions in northern Colombia for days.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood is joined by Crisis Group experts Elizabeth Dickinson, Senior Colombia Analyst, and Renata Segura, Deputy Program Director for Latin America and the Caribbean. They talk about the candidates’ campaigns and Colombians’ disenchantment with their political elite. They discuss the hurdles Petro will have to surmount to win the run-off. They chart Hernández’s meteoric rise and dissect some of his proposals. They assess Colombia’s worsening insecurity, as armed groups, from guerrillas to former rebels and criminal gangs, exploit the state’s absence in rural areas. They also discuss what the election of Hernández or Petro would mean for Colombia’s foreign relations and Latin American politics more broadly.

For more on the situation in Colombia, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Colombia country page, including our recent Q&A “Colombia’s Election Clash Rattles a Fragile Peace”.

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New President in Somalia, New Opportunity for Reconciliation

Fri, 27 May 2022 13:43:33 GMT

On 15 May, Somali lawmakers voted in new president Hassan Sheikh Mohamud. The peaceful vote and transfer of power drew a line under what had been a fraught, long-delayed and sometimes violent electoral process that repeatedly threatened to tip into a major political crisis. Defeating the incumbent Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, better known as “Farmajo”, Hassan Sheikh became the first Somali to hold the presidency twice – having already served between 2012 and 2017. The new president promises reconciliation among Somalis and a new era of peace. But he faces daunting challenges. Foremost among them are deep divisions among Somali political elites, particularly between the capital Mogadishu and Somalia’s federal member states, or regions, and the long struggle against the Islamist militant group and al-Qaeda affiliate Al-Shabaab.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood is joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Somalia Analyst, to talk about what the change in power means for Somalia. They discuss how it might impact domestic politics, notably the fraught dynamics between Mogadishu and federal member states. They look at how Somalia’s foreign relations might evolve: in the Horn of Africa, where Farmajo had forged tight links to Ethiopia and Eritrea; in the Gulf, where Farmajo’s close ties to Qatar had alienated the United Arab Emirates; and with Western governments that had grown impatient with his election delays. They then talk in depth about a forthcoming Crisis Group report on prospects for dialogue with Al-Shabaab. Omar and Richard map out the many challenges to such engagement: the troubled history of dialogue with Al-Shabaab, the group’s uncompromising nature, unpopularity and foreign ties, political fractures among other Somalis and resistance in regional capitals. They examine why, despite all the challenges, it would be worth President Hassan Sheikh testing the water with the group’s leaders to see what sort of compromise might be feasible.

For more on Somalia, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Somalia country page and keep an eye out for our upcoming report “Testing the Water: Considering Political Engagement with Al-Shabaab in Somalia”.

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Shades of Jihad in Syria

Fri, 20 May 2022 10:53:27 GMT

On 3 February, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that American special forces had killed the leader of the Islamic State (ISIS), Abdullah Qardash, in a house where he was hiding out in Idlib province, in north west Syria. Idlib is held by another militant group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate and supposedly a sworn enemy of ISIS. Qardash’s killing came just after ISIS’s largest attack in the country for years on a prison holding many ISIS prisoners in the north east, and a two-week long pitched battle between ISIS and the mostly Kurdish forces, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), that control that area. Other ISIS attacks over recent years in the north east and the desert in central Syria suggest that despite having lost the territory it controlled for some years, ISIS remains a resilient insurgency. Moreover, its enemies are largely antagonistic toward each other and new fighting among them could open more space for jihadists.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group experts Dareen Khalifa, Senior Analyst on Syria, and Jerome Drevon, Senior Analyst on Jihad and Modern Conflict, about ISIS in Syria, its global footprint and the evolution of HTS. They assess the strength of ISIS, the nature of its insurgency and Qardash’s role before his death. They look at links between ISIS in Syria and affiliates in other parts of the world, notably Africa, where more local militants now fight under ISIS’s banner. They talk about the challenges faced by the largely Kurdish SDF, which leads the ISIS fight in the north east, their relations with Arabs in areas they control, their enmity with Turkey and their reliance on U.S. protection. They also discuss HTS and its rule in Idlib, where Qardash was killed, drawing on frequent visits to that area. They discuss the state of play in Syria more broadly – the U.S.’s presence in the north east, the uneasy ceasefire brokered by Turkey and Russia in the north west and the precarious calm that prevails after years of brutal war.

For more on Syria, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Syria country page.

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A Perilous Free-for-all in the Eastern DR Congo?

Fri, 13 May 2022 11:42:02 GMT

Neighbouring states are fighting again in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. In November 2021, Tshisekedi invited Ugandan units to cross into the DRC’s North Kivu province in pursuit of the ISIS-linked Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), a Ugandan rebel group blamed for a high profile attack last November in Ugandan capital Kampala. The following month, Burundian soldiers clashed with a Burundian rebel group also on Congolese soil. Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame has suggested that his country’s troops could soon also cross the border to battle Rwandan rebels, the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), who are also based in the eastern DRC.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group’s Great Lakes expert Nelleke van de Walle to make sense of what’s happening. They discuss politics among Great Lakes leaders and Tshisekedi’s efforts to develop closer ties to his neighbours in an effort to stabilise the eastern Congo. They talk about the myriad rebel groups – Congolese and foreign – active in the area, and their local and regional ties. They discuss Kagame’s concerns and how Tshisekedi can better delineate the role of the thousands of Ugandan forces now in the DR Congo. They also discuss how the Congolese president and other regional leaders can dissuade Kagame from sending in Rwandan forces. They discuss the role of the DR Congo’s neighbours in the east, an area that has long suffered from foreign meddling and predatory rebel groups, and prospects for improving the lives of its inhabitants.

For more on the fighting in the eastern DRC, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Great Lakes regional page and keep an eye out for an upcoming briefing on the conflict.

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Taliban Rule in Afghanistan

Fri, 06 May 2022 15:02:10 GMT

It’s been almost nine months since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan. What for years had been the world’s deadliest war is mostly over and the country is suffering considerably less violence, though reprisals against some former members of the security forces and attacks by the local Islamic State branch continue. Afghanistan is also in the grips of an economic crisis. The UN and humanitarian organisations managed to stave off a famine over the past winter. But the situation remains dire as the prices of staples rise and the Afghan central bank has collapsed. The economic squeeze largely owes to Western policy, particularly donors cutting off all but essential aid, and Western capitals seizing Afghanistan’s assets and applying pre-existing sanctions on the Taliban insurgency to the state as a whole. The Taliban’s decision, on 23 March, not to reopen girls’ secondary schools across the country, despite repeatedly promising to do so, has made it even less likely that donors will reverse course. That decision is only one of several recent edicts that suggest a harder line by the Taliban government.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group’s Afghanistan experts Graeme Smith and Ibraheem Bahiss, both recently returned from their first trip to the country since the Taliban seized control. They talk about their time in the capital Kabul and how it compares to life before the takeover. They explain the impact of the country’s economic isolation, dependence on humanitarian aid and faltering central banking system — in particular the costs for millions of Afghans struggling to scrape by. They discuss in depth Western policies related to aid, the frozen assets and sanctions. They break down the Taliban’s decision to keep girls’ secondary schools closed and what that says about debates within, and the direction of, the Taliban government. They also describe resistance to that decision among many Afghans and prospects for teenage girls desperate to get back to school.

For more on Afghanistan, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Afghanistan country page.

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Is the Danger of a NATO-Russia War Growing?

Fri, 29 Apr 2022 13:37:55 GMT

Ukraine’s war has entered a new phase, with Russia launching a major offensive in the east and south. This follows Moscow pulling back its forces from around Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, after fierce Ukrainian resistance and seemingly changing its immediate goals to focus on capturing more of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Kyiv’s Western allies have pledged to increase supplies of advanced weaponry to help Ukrainian forces fend off Russia’s latest offensive.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia Director, for the latest update on the fighting in Donbas, how Western capitals have responded and whether the risks of direct confrontation between NATO and Russia are growing. They discuss what’s happening on the front lines in Donbas and ask what the latest fighting says about Moscow’s tactics and goals. They talk about the likelihood of Russia trying to capture a land bridge across southwest Ukraine to the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria, as one Russian general has threatened. They also talk about policy in Western capitals, as NATO member states pledge to send more weapons to Kyiv, and how well Western leaders are balancing the need to support Ukraine while minimising risks of a NATO-Russia war that could rapidly turn nuclear. They also talk about the prospects of diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict.

For more on the Ukraine War, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page.

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European Security and France’s Election in the Shadow of Russia’s War in Ukraine

Fri, 22 Apr 2022 14:49:00 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood is joined by Gérard Araud, Crisis Group Trustee, distinguished French diplomat and former ambassador to both the UN and the U.S., to look at the Western response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As the war enters its second month and Russia launches a major offensive in Ukraine’s east and south, they discuss the dilemmas Western governments face in supporting Ukraine, while avoiding risks of direct conflict between NATO and Russia. They walk through different aspects of Western policy, from the provision of weapons to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia to diplomacy aimed at ending the war. They also reflect back on past decades of deteriorating relations between the West and Russia. They map out the war’s implications for Europe’s security architecture and transatlantic relations, and what it means for French President Emmanuel Macron’s vision of European strategic autonomy. They also discuss the French election and what a Le Pen presidency would bring for France and its place in Europe and the world.

For more on the Ukraine War, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page.

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Pakistan After Imran Khan’s Ouster: Tests at Home and Away

Fri, 15 Apr 2022 12:30:42 GMT

On 10 April, Pakistani legislators passed a no-confidence vote that ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan’s government. The vote capped weeks of political turbulence, as a coalition of rival parties accused Khan’s government of chronic mismanagement amidst an intense economic crisis fuelled by soaring inflation. Khan has not gone quietly. Parliamentarians from his party walked out of the National Assembly in protest at the vote and thousands of furious supporters have taken to the streets. Khan accuses his successor Shahbaz Sharif of abetting a foreign conspiracy aimed at toppling him.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood is joined from Lahore by acclaimed author, journalist and Crisis Group trustee Ahmed Rashid to talk about Pakistan’s political crisis, what it might mean for the country's stability and challenges for the Sharif government. They discuss Khan’s response to his ouster and how disruptive a force his movement might be in the months ahead. They look at his apparent fall from grace with the chiefs of Pakistan’s powerful military. They discuss the dilemmas facing Sharif, particularly, reviving a floundering economy, navigating relations with the military and containing rising Islamist militancy, all the while managing coalition politics. They also talk about the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine and its impact on a difficult foreign policy agenda: repairing relations with Western capitals, keeping China on board and managing what appeared to be warming ties to Moscow, alongside the traditionally bitter rivalry with India and complicated relations with the Taliban in Afghanistan.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Pakistan country page and make sure to read our recent Q&A, “Imran Khan’s Fall: Political and Security Implications for Pakistan” , and our report, “Pakistan’s Hard Policy Choices in Afghanistan”.

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Can a Truce and New Government Help End Yemen’s War?

Fri, 08 Apr 2022 18:16:13 GMT

On 7 April, the head of Yemen’s internationally recognised government, President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi made the surprise announcement that he would cede all executive power to an eight-person presidential council. His handover comes only days after the start of a UN-mediated two-month truce between Huthi rebels and a fractious coalition of anti-Huthi forces backed by a Saudi Arabia-led coalition.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Peter Salisbury, Crisis Group’s Senior Yemen Analyst, about what’s behind these two announcements and what they might mean for the war and prospects for peace talks. They break down how shifting battle dynamics may explain the truce, what exactly it entails for Yemenis and the likelihood of it holding. They also make sense of President Hadi’s handover of power and the evolving calculations in the Gulf, notably Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. They examine whether a government that is more representative of the balance of force among anti-Huthi factions on the ground could open space for credible peace talks and improve prospects of ending a war that has provoked one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Yemen country page, make sure to read our recent Q&A: ‘Behind the Yemen Truce and Presidential Council Announcement’ and check out our previous Yemen episode.

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Can a “Humanitarian Truce” Help End Ethiopia’s Civil War?

Fri, 01 Apr 2022 15:30:26 GMT

After almost seventeen months of devastating civil war in Ethiopia, the federal government on 24 March announced what it called a humanitarian truce. The offer would ostensibly allow aid into Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, which has, in effect, been under a blockade for months and where millions face what the UN describes as a serious lack of food. The government’s unilateral truce declaration comes after its offensive in late 2021 pushed back Tigrayan forces, who had advanced to within striking distance of the capital Addis Ababa – the latest about-face in a war that has seen the balance of force between federal troops and Tigrayan rebels swing back and forth. It also comes alongside other signals that Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed may have tempered his initial goal of crushing Tigray’s leadership.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood, Naz Modirzadeh and William Davison, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Ethiopia, discuss the causes and significance of the government's proposal. They map out the military dynamics on the ground and the evolving calculations of Tigrayan leaders, Prime Minister Abiy, other Ethiopian protagonists in the conflict and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, whose forces were also fighting alongside the federal troops against the Tigrayans. They talk about the role of foreign powers in supporting President Abiy Ahmed and in pushing for peace and break down how regional relations are shaping the conflict. They ask how optimistic we should be that the truce eases Tigray’s humanitarian disaster or even serves as a foundation for peace talks and how such talks might surmount the thorniest obstacles – notably resolving a territorial dispute in Western Tigray – to a political settlement.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page.

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Decoding Russia’s Nuclear Threats over Ukraine

Fri, 25 Mar 2022 14:37:30 GMT

Since Russian forces crossed en masse the Ukrainian border a month ago, the war has been overshadowed by Moscow’s nuclear menacing. Vladimir Putin has made thinly veiled threats of nuclear escalation as a way to deter other governments coming to Ukraine’s aid. He also announced he was placing Russian nuclear deterrence forces on “high alert”, though the meaning of that is not entirely clear. Recent proclamations by Russian officials that Ukraine might use biological and chemical weapons add to concerns that Russia is laying the ground for its own use of such weapons.

In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia Program Director, discuss the significance of Russia’s nuclear threats and what they aim to achieve. They talk about Russia’s nuclear doctrine and widespread perceptions in Western capitals about its “escalate to de-escalate” policy. Olya also runs through Moscow’s failure to conquer Ukraine quickly in the face of fierce Ukrainian resistance, backed by Western arms supplies, and what that might mean for the Kremlin’s calculations. They talk about the potential dangers of greater NATO involvement, scenarios that could lead to the use of nuclear weapons, what that would mean and ways of minimising risks of a catastrophic nuclear confrontation.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ukraine country page and make sure to read our recent statement, “Avoiding an Even Worse Catastrophe in Ukraine” and Olga’s recent piece for Foreign Affairs, “Putin’s Nuclear Bluff”.

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The Fallout from Ukraine: Iran Talks Stalled; U.S. Woos Caracas?

Sat, 19 Mar 2022 16:01:23 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Iran and Andes senior analysts Naysan Rafati and Phil Gunson to talk about the Ukraine war’s fallout on Iran nuclear talks and Venezuela’s crisis. Naysan discusses Russia’s role in the talks over Iran’s nuclear program, what Moscow’s latest demands regarding carve-outs from Ukraine-related sanctions entail and whether they could scupper efforts to get back to the nuclear deal. Phil talks through a surprise visit to Caracas by a high-ranking U.S. delegation – its meeting with Venezuelan officials all the more surprising given that Washington formally recognises an opposition leader as Venezuela’s president. They discuss Venezuela-Russia relations, prospects for U.S.-Venezuela bridge-building and for reinvigorating talks between the Venezuelan government and its opponents.

Click here to listen on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ukraine country page and make sure to read our recent commentary, ‘A Twist in Caracas: Is a Venezuela-U.S. Reboot on the Cards?’ and statement, ‘Avoiding an Even Worse Catastrophe in Ukraine’.

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France’s Troop Withdrawal from Mali

Wed, 16 Mar 2022 16:02:14 GMT

On 17 February, President Emmanuel Macron announced he would withdraw all French troops from Mali after a deployment in the country of almost ten years. In early 2013, French forces together with Chadian troops ousted jihadists from cities and towns in northern Mali, which created space for a peace deal between Bamako and other, non-jihadist rebels. Since then, however, the French-led campaign against militants in the Sahel has struggled against local al-Qaeda and Islamic State branches. French operations have killed jihadist leaders, but militants have extended their reach from northern Mali to its centre and to parts of Niger, Burkina Faso and even Gulf of Guinea countries. Inter-ethnic violence has ballooned. Mali has also suffered two coups over the past couple of years. Relations between Paris and the junta currently holding power have deteriorated sharply, partly because Mali’s military leaders had agreed, mid-2021, to the deployment of Russian private military contractors to help fight jihadists. Popular anger toward France’s deployment has also mounted, seemingly partly fuelled by disinformation.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk with Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim and Richard Moncrieff, respectively Crisis Group’s senior Sahel analyst and interim Sahel director, about the French decision, its causes and its implications. They look at the collapse in relations between Bamako and Paris, the direction the junta is currently taking Mali and how other countries in the region have responded. They talk through what the French departure might mean for other forces, including the UN force in Mali and the G5 Sahel regional force. They also examine the repercussions for the balance of force between jihadists and their enemies in the Sahel and ask what a future French presence in the region might look like after the withdrawal from Mali.

N.B. This episode was recorded before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Sahel regional page. For our analysis of African perspectives of the Ukraine War, check out our commentary ‘The Ukraine War: A Global Crisis’.

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International Women’s Day Special Episode: Can War Be Feminist?

Fri, 11 Mar 2022 14:02:02 GMT

Both our political mapping of conflict and peacebuilding efforts too often neglect the powerful role of gender dynamics in driving war. The identities of men and women shape their motivations and strategies at times of conflict, as well as the ways they experience violence, whether as victims, fighters or peacemakers.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Azadeh Moaveni, Crisis Group’s gender and conflict project director for a special episode for International Women’s Day to discuss the complex relationship between gender and conflict. They highlight some of Crisis Group’s recent work – discussing how women and girls experience Cameroon’s Anglophone crisis and their roles as insurgents and peace activists, as well as the story of women’s peacebuilding in Pakistan’s North West tribal belt, and how their hard-fought struggle for rights has shaped the prospects of a region mired in militancy and cultural conservatism. They also talk about the outlook for women across Afghanistan in the wake of the Taliban’s takeover, and the ongoing detention of ISIS-affiliated women and children in Syria, forbidden from returning to their home countries. They explore how considering gender can enrich our understanding of conflict resolution. They end with a discussion on several countries’ adoption over recent years of feminist foreign policies, what those policies entail and the value of framing foreign relations through a feminist lens.

For more of Crisis Group’s work on gender, make sure to explore our Gender and Conflict page and check out our recent reports: “Women and Peacebuilding in Pakistan’s North West” and “Rebels, Victims, Peacebuilders: Women in Cameroon’s Anglophone Conflict”.

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The Ukraine War: A View from Moscow

Wed, 09 Mar 2022 16:00:31 GMT

Russia’s war in Ukraine thus far has not gone Moscow’s way. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to have expected that Russian forces would capture Ukraine without much resistance, but Ukrainian forces have put up a fierce fight. The Western response has been more united than Putin appears to have anticipated. Russia faces economic isolation, after Western leaders have enacted crippling, far-reaching sanctions, shutting off the country from the global economy. They have also sent arms to Ukraine and deployed additional NATO troops in the countries on the alliance’s eastern flank. Yet for now nothing suggests the Kremlin will reverse course. Talks between Russian and Ukrainian officials continue, but have yielded little. Russia has stepped up its bombardment of Ukrainian cities. Casualties on both sides, and among Ukrainian civilians, are mounting.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined from Moscow by Andrey Kortunov, Crisis Group trustee, director-general of the Russian International Affairs Council and a leading expert on Russian foreign policy. They discuss Russian perspectives on the war, decision-making in the Kremlin, why President Putin appears to have miscalculated so badly and what the next few weeks might hold for the fighting. They look at the danger of the crisis escalating into a wider confrontation between Russia and NATO, potentially through one side misunderstanding the other’s intentions, and at ways to avoid that happening. Andrey also lays out what options exist for de-escalating the conflict and obstacles to that happening.

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis, visit our Ukraine regional page, and make sure to read our recent Q&A: “No-Fly Zone: War with Russia by Another Name” and our commentary: “The Ukraine War: A Global Crisis?”.

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Any Hope Left For Diplomacy Over Ukraine?

Sat, 05 Mar 2022 13:06:27 GMT

Fighting rages on in Ukraine. Despite massive advantages in fire and manpower, the Russian military is facing much fiercer Ukrainian resistance than Moscow appears to have anticipated and has stepped up airstrikes on Ukrainian cities. Diplomatic efforts still continue, with the two sides meeting to talk about humanitarian access. But casualties and the levels of destruction continue to rise. Western countries have responded with punishing sanctions, further NATO troop build-ups along the alliance's eastern flank and continued supplies of arms to Ukraine. Meanwhile, a UN General Assembly meeting on 2 March saw a large majority of states vote to condemn Russia’s aggression. Whether Moscow’s diplomatic and economic isolation will have any impact on the Kremlin’s calculations remains to be seen.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood discusses again the war in Ukraine and its fallout, in a two-part episode with Crisis Group experts, Olga Oliker, Europe & Central Asia director and Richard Gowan, UN director. Olga talks about the latest fighting dynamics, what the coming weeks could bring, the Western response so far and whether diplomatic efforts stand any hope of getting to a ceasefire or end to the fighting. Richard Gowan then looks at the overwhelming condemnation in the UN General Assembly of Russia’s aggression and reactions to the crisis from around the world. He asks what role the UN might play in Ukraine and examines the war's potential impact on an already deeply divided Security Council and its conflict management more broadly.

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis, visit our Ukraine regional page, and make sure to read our recent commentary, ‘The Ukraine War: A Global Crisis?’ and our statement, ‘War in Europe: Responding to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine’.

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Russia’s War in Ukraine

Sat, 26 Feb 2022 15:51:32 GMT

On Thursday 24 February, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared the launch of, in his words, a “special military operation” in Ukraine. Russian airstrikes on military and other infrastructure near Ukrainian cities were followed by massive troop advances from the north, east and south. Despite fierce Ukrainian resistance, Russian forces have reached the capital Kyiv, where fighting rages on the city’s streets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on all Ukrainians to arm themselves to defend their homeland. Notwithstanding months of warnings, as perhaps as many as 200,000 Russian troops have massed at the Ukrainian border, the Kremlin’s invasion has left Europe, and indeed much of the world, in shock. It seems inevitable that it will exact a terrible human toll.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and guest host, Crisis Group’s president & CEO Comfort Ero are joined by Olga Oliker, our Europe & Central Asia director to discuss Russia’s aggression. They look at what’s happening on the ground, what the next few days could bring and what happens if the Zelenskyy government falls and the Russians try to install a pliant regime in Kyiv. They talk about the mood in Moscow and reactions to Russia’s invasion from around the world, including in China. They also talk through the Western response – the extent and impact of sanctions, what a NATO build-up would entail and whether Western powers should back Ukrainian resistance and what that might involve. They discuss the impact of Russia’s invasion on wider global affairs.

For more of Crisis Group’s analysis, visit our Ukraine regional page, and make sure to read our recent statement ‘ War in Europe: Responding to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine’. Comfort and Richard also discuss the Ukraine crisis in their piece, ‘10 Conflicts To Watch in 2022’.

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Can Western Diplomacy Still Avert War in Ukraine?

Fri, 18 Feb 2022 15:54:15 GMT

Russia has amassed over 150,000 troops at the Ukrainian border, fuelling growing fear that Moscow plans an attack. Russian leaders deny any such plan and in recent days, the defence minister has claimed that Moscow is pulling back troops and equipment as military drills come to a close. Other reports and satellite imagery suggest, however, that in fact more are arriving. At the same time, front lines in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region separating areas held by the Ukrainian government and those held by Russia-backed separatists have seen a barrage of shelling, raising further concern that Moscow might use the violence as a pretext for military action. All this comes after an intense few weeks of diplomacy by Western leaders aimed at deterring Moscow.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Comfort Ero, Crisis Group’s president & CEO, are joined by Olya Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia Program director, to talk about latest developments, what to make of the recent shelling on front lines in Donbas and whether there is anything more the West can do to stave off further military action by Russia. They talk through Russian demands, from a halt to NATO expansion to Ukrainian compliance with Russia’s interpretation of the Minsk agreements that aim to resolve the Donbas conflicts. They discuss Western efforts to deter Moscow and the degree of unity among Western capitals. They also talk about what a Russian invasion could look like in practice, its human toll and how Western leaders should respond. They also examine prospects for talks on the wider European security architecture if Russia does pull back.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ukraine regional page.

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Turkey's Foreign Relations Balancing Act

Sat, 05 Feb 2022 09:46:32 GMT

This week, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was in Kyiv. The Turkish leader has previously offered to use his ties to Ukraine and reasonably cordial relations with Russia to mediate between the two. They’re unlikely to take him up on the offer, but Erdoğan’s trip was another sign of Turkish involvement in nearby conflicts over the past few years and its changing foreign relations. In late 2020, a Turkish military intervention in Libya propped up the UN-recognised government in Tripoli – an ally of Ankara – and created space for peace talks. At about the same time, in the Caucasus, Ankara backed Azerbaijan in the second Karabakh war of November 2020 that saw Baku recapture territory in and near the breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh region. In the war's aftermath, Turkey has started normalising relations with its old adversary Armenia. Over the past year, Turkey has also sought to build bridges to the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, with whom relations were particularly fraught only a few years ago.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined from Istanbul by Nigar Göksel, Crisis Group’s Turkey director, to make sense of President Erdoğan’s foreign policy. They sketch out the motives for and implications of Turkish involvement in crises across the Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus and the eastern Mediterranean, which include support for local forces in northern Syria and maritime disputes in the Mediterranean as well as the interventions in Libya and Azerbaijan. They discuss Turkey’s complicated relations with Russia, testy ties to Western capitals and signs of rapprochement with the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Israel. They ask how much of the evolution in Turkey’s foreign relations is by design, reflects the evolving geopolitics of Turkey’s neighbourhood, or a bit of both. They talk about whether it marks a return to Ankara’s aspirations in the 2000s to have a zero-problems foreign policy.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Turkey regional page.

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Another Coup in West Africa: The Burkina Faso Military Seizes Power

Fri, 28 Jan 2022 15:17:10 GMT

Burkina Faso is the latest in a string of African states to fall victim to a military coup. Late January saw Burkinabé soldiers oust President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré, dissolve the government and suspend the country's constitution. Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Damiba, the coup leader, has promised to address burgeoning violence across much of Burkina’s countryside. Fighting between jihadist militants and the army, together with state-backed militias, has over the past few years killed thousands and displaced 1.5 million people. Many Burkinabé, frustrated at the government’s inability to curb violence, took to the streets in celebration at the military’s power grab. The Burkina coup is the fifth in Africa over the past year, part of a worrying uptick in military takeovers on the continent.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Rinaldo Depagne, Crisis Group’s deputy Africa director and an expert on Burkina Faso, to talk about the coup and its ramifications. They discuss the instability across parts of Burkina that fuelled anger within the population and military, paving the way for the coup. They talk about what Damiba and the military will do next, how his power grab might impact the country’s struggles against Islamist militancy and how it might shape politics in West Africa and the Sahel more broadly. They look at the Burkina coup alongside other military takeovers on the continent and discuss what is driving more frequent coups and the dilemmas the trend poses regional organisations, Western powers and the UN.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Sahel regional page and keep an eye out for an upcoming Q&A.

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Special Episode: Ten Conflicts to Watch in 2022

Fri, 21 Jan 2022 18:07:10 GMT

As Russia appears poised for a military escalation in Ukraine, humanitarian catastrophe looms in Afghanistan and negotiations over the Iran nuclear deal enter crunch time, what should we worry about in the year ahead? Each year Crisis Group’s flagship publication 10 Conflicts to Watch, published with Foreign Policy magazine, looks at the trends, wars and crises that keep us up at night.

On this week’s Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and guest host Ásdís Ólafsdóttir, Crisis Group's Online Communications Manager, are joined by Comfort Ero, our new President & CEO, to talk about what we’re watching in 2022. They talk about big trends overshadowing global affairs: the impact of the pandemic and the climate crises on international peace and security, the human toll of the world’s worst wars, the major and regional power rivalries that hinder peacemaking and make for several increasingly perilous flashpoints, as well as the U.S.’s evolving global role one year into President Joe Biden’s tenure. They look up-close at the latest dynamics in individual crises, from Ukraine and Yemen to Afghanistan and Ethiopia, while sketching out some reasons for hope in an overall gloomy picture.

For more information, make sure to explore the whole of our flagship commentary published with Foreign Policy magazine: “10 Conflicts to Watch in 2022”. For some more hopeful news, you can also check out Crisis Group’s Twitter thread 10 Reasons For Hope in 2022.

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Will the Iran Nuclear Deal Survive and What Happens if Not?

Fri, 14 Jan 2022 14:53:23 GMT

It’s crunch time for negotiations over the Iran nuclear deal. That deal, the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), curtailed Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for substantial sanctions relief. In 2018, President Trump unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the agreement. Four years later, Iran is closer than ever to being able to develop a nuclear weapon. While President Biden came to office vowing to rejoin the deal, months of sustained indirect talks in Vienna this year have made only slow headway. There is a real danger that talks collapse, Iran’s nuclear development continues and the U.S. faces a hard choice between accepting Iran as a nuclear threshold state – able to build a bomb even if not yet having done so – or trying to stop that happening, which could mean military strikes on Iran.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Crisis Group’s Iran Project Director Ali Vaez. They discuss the current state of negotiations in Vienna, impediments to the U.S. and Iran getting back to compliance with the deal, and strategic calculations in Tehran and Washington, as well as in Europe, China, Russia and the Middle East. They talk about where Iran’s nuclear program stands and what options exist if talks collapse. They also discuss what a potential military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities could look like and what risks it might entail. Ali also lays out how the parties could yet salvage the deal in a way that gives them enough of what they need even if not all of what they want.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Iran regional page. Make sure to look out for our report coming out on Monday, ‘The Iran Nuclear Deal at Six: Now or Never’.

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Can the U.S. Address Migration’s “Root Causes” in Central America?

Fri, 17 Dec 2021 14:56:47 GMT

Over recent years, an estimated million and a half Central Americans have made the journey up to the U.S. seeking a better life. Many are fleeing political instability, corruption, poverty or gang violence and predation. In Nicaragua, President Daniel Ortega has veered toward dictatorship, locking up his rivals and dismantling civil society organisations after winning a fourth term in an election widely condemned as rigged. Ortega’s counterpart in El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, a social media-savvy millennial leader, has had some success in reducing phenomenal levels of violence, seemingly through deals with gangs. But he too, shows worrying authoritarian traits, dismissing Supreme Court justices in an apparent bid to stay in power. There have been bright spots. In Honduras, opposition candidate Xiomara Castro won a peaceful election only a few weeks ago. The ruling party accepted defeat, allaying fears of a political crisis.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Crisis Group’s Analyst for Central America, Tiziano Breda, and its Latin America Program Director, Ivan Briscoe. They talk about Nicaragua’s troubling direction under Ortega and how the outside world should respond. They also talk about Bukele’s record, what explains his popularity and his government’s controversial approach to gang violence. They discuss U.S. policy toward Central America under former President Donald Trump and what has changed under President Joe Biden and ask how much outside actors can realistically help mend the deep-rooted trends that drive migration.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Central America regional page.

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Russia in Africa

Fri, 10 Dec 2021 15:52:45 GMT

After a post-Cold War hiatus, Russia is returning to Africa. Through both traditional diplomacy and the deployment of security contractors, Moscow’s influence on the continent is growing. Particularly controversial has been the role of the Wagner Group, a Russian military contractor. In the Central African Republic (CAR), Wagner forces have been at the forefront of operations against rebels. Overall, Russia’s muscular new visibility on the continent has unsettled Western powers.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Pauline Bax, Crisis Group’s senior Africa adviser, joins Richard Atwood and guest co-host Comfort Ero. Pauline has just written a piece on Russia’s role in CAR. They discuss how Russian mercenaries have shifted battlefield dynamics in that country in the government’s favour and popular perceptions of their gains, both in the capital Bangui and in areas affected by fighting. They discuss how Moscow, which had close ties to former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, has navigated Sudan’s revolution. They also talk about Russia’s emerging role in the Sahel, where it has sought to capitalise on anti-France sentiment to win influence. They ask what Russia’s aims are in Africa and what the impact of its increased presence is for Africans themselves.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Russia and Africa pages.

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Will Russia Invade Ukraine?

Fri, 03 Dec 2021 17:11:44 GMT

Over recent weeks, some 100,000 Russian troops have massed on the Ukrainian border -- for the second time this year. Ukrainian officials warn of a potential Russian invasion; Western leaders warn of severe consequences if that happens.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group’s Europe and Central Asia director, Olga Oliker, and Oleg Ignatov, senior Russia analyst. They discuss developments leading to the troop build-up: the breakdown of a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian security forces; and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s increasingly testy statements about Ukraine’s relations with NATO member states. They look at what Putin may hope to gain with the troop deployments, whether Moscow is really prepared to use military force, what a military intervention might entail and how Ukraine and its Western partners might respond. They also look at what Western powers could do to deter an attack.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ukraine and Russia pages.

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Western Policy and Afghanistan’s Humanitarian Devastation

Fri, 26 Nov 2021 17:20:19 GMT

Afghanistan is on the brink of becoming the world’s worst humanitarian emergency. Western governments responded to the Taliban takeover in August by suspending aid, freezing state assets and imposing stringent sanctions regimes. The country’s economy was plunged into freefall as a result. Government salaries remain unpaid, the financial sector has collapsed and cash is in short supply. Millions of the country’s civilians struggle to access basic necessities and feed their families. The UN has already warned that half the country’s citizens are suffering from extreme hunger. Things only look set to get worse as winter sets in.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group’s Afghanistan expert Graeme Smith about this crisis and the responsibility shouldered by Western governments. They talk about the Taliban’s refusal to do much in the way of compromise on draconian policies so far, especially limiting education for girls and women, curtailing women’s right to work and shunning demands for political inclusion. They discuss the dilemma facing Western governments, Washington’s status as an economic gatekeeper, the role played by the Europeans and how Afghanistan’s neighbours have responded to the Taliban takeover. They ask what Western policymakers, particularly in Washington, should do to help humanitarian organisations operate effectively and alleviate the looming emergency.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Afghanistan page and keep an eye out for our upcoming report.

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Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte: Populist or Peacemaker?

Fri, 19 Nov 2021 14:31:22 GMT

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte’s term ends next June. Abroad, Duterte is arguably best known for a brutal anti-drug campaign which has killed thousands of people, prompting the International Criminal Court to open an official probe into alleged crimes against humanity. Yet Duterte has also nudged along a peace process in the Muslim-majority region of Mindanao, where Duterte himself is from, helping turn the page on a decades-long conflict that had killed 120,000 people.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Georgi Engelbrecht, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for the Philippines. They discuss Duterte’s legacy as his term comes to a close. They talk about the splits in Duterte’s own political camp, as his daughter, Sara Duterte-Carpio, registers to run as vice presidential candidate on a rival ticket. They discuss the cost of the violent anti-drug campaign and Duterte’s popularity among Filipinos. They also talk about the peace process in Mindanao, the continued challenge posed by Islamist militancy and Duterte’s failed attempts to open talks with communist rebels. Lastly, they look at Duterte’s foreign policy and efforts to pivot toward closer relations with China.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Philippines page and read Georgi’s recent Q&A ‘The Philippines: Three More Years for the Bangsamoro Transition’.

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Bosnia Unravelling?

Fri, 12 Nov 2021 14:47:20 GMT

Bosnia faces what the current international High Representative to the country, Christian Schmidt, calls “its greatest existential threat of the post-war period”. It is grappling with dual crises that could upend the fragile status quo that has endured since the 1995 Dayton Accords ended Bosnia’s brutal civil war. In October, Milorad Dodik, the de facto leader of the autonomous Serb-dominated region, Republika Srpska, vowed to pull out of state institutions, paving the way for independence or union with neighbouring Serbia. Meanwhile, Bosniaks and Croats have yet to resolve a longstanding electoral dispute and, divided, cannot join together to counter Dodik’s secessionist threats. Both Serbs and Croats threaten to boycott elections planned for 2022.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz Modirzadeh and Richard Atwood are joined by Crisis Group Balkans expert Marko Prelec to talk about the crises. They discuss the motives for the Serbian drive for secession, the ongoing electoral dispute that has left Croats feeling disenfranchised, and the High Representative’s role. They look at quick fixes to calm both crises, the necessity but challenges of constitutional reform and revisiting the framework established at Dayton, and what international actors can do to help.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Bosnia And Herzegovina page and make sure to read our recent Q&A ‘Grappling with Bosnia’s Dual Crises’.

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Will Tigrayan Rebels Attack Ethiopia’s capital?

Fri, 05 Nov 2021 16:32:48 GMT

This week, as Ethiopia’s civil war enters its second year, Tigrayan rebels captured the strategically placed cities of Dessie and Kombolcha, only hours away from the country’s capital Addis Ababa. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed imposed a state of emergency and exhorted citizens to take up arms to defend the capital. With Tigrayan forces at striking distance, is an all-out assault on the capital imminent?

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Senior Ethiopia Analyst William Davison to discuss what might happen next. They discuss the factors explaining Tigrayan forces’ offensive, the strain on Ethiopia’s federal forces and the impact of Tigrayan gains on Prime Minister Abiy’s position and his ruling party. They look at the war’s international dimensions: Eritrea’s continued involvement, how Djibouti might respond were Tigrayan forces able to reach the Djiboutian border and seek to open supply lines, and the risk Sudan gets sucked in. They discuss what an assault on the capital by Tigrayan forces might entail and how that can be averted.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page and read our latest briefing Ethiopia’s Civil War: Cutting a Deal to Stop the Bloodshed.

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The Military’s Dangerous Power Grab in Sudan

Fri, 29 Oct 2021 13:43:53 GMT

On 25 October, Sudan’s military leaders ousted the country’s civilian government, detaining Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and several of his ministers. The coup took place two and a half years after a mass uprising that toppled long-standing ruler Omar al-Bashir. The military, fearful of losing their grip over the economy and of facing judicial action for abuses committed during Bashir’s rule and against protesters, had been reluctant partners in a transitional power-sharing government. Coming less than a year before a planned handover of power to civilians, the power grab was met with fury on the streets. Demonstrations have erupted in a defiant rejection of military rule.

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz and Richard are joined by two Crisis Group experts, Murithi Mutiga, Project Director for the Horn of Africa, and Jonas Horner, Senior Analyst for Sudan, to talk about the coup, why it happened and what it means for risks of violence and Sudan’s future. They discuss potential splits within the security forces, the possible role played by outside governments, and the way the African Union and Western powers should respond. They also ask if Sudan’s generals have overestimated their hand and how to walk them back from the brink.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on the Sudan page and read our statement ‘Reversing Sudan’s Dangerous Coup’.

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U.S.-China Tensions and Beijing’s Show of Strength in the Taiwan Strait

Fri, 22 Oct 2021 15:25:54 GMT

In recent weeks, record numbers of Chinese fighter jets have entered Taiwan’s Air Defence Identification Zone in what appears to be a deliberate show of strength by Beijing. This comes at a time when tensions between Beijing and the U.S. are particularly fraught. A core part of Washington’s China policy seeks to deter China’s assertiveness in its neighbourhood, as Beijing expands its military presence within the first island chain, which stretches from Japan past Taiwan to the Philippines and Borneo in the South China Sea.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood is joined by Amanda Hsiao, Crisis Group’s Senior China Analyst. They talk about what Beijing hopes to achieve with the flights and how they’re perceived in Taiwan. They also discuss the military build-up in the region and how U.S. and Chinese militaries are more frequently coming into contact with one another. Amanda also talks through how Beijing views its relations with Washington and, with a virtual summit between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping scheduled for some time this year, prospects for dialling back tensions.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our China page. Make sure to check out Amanda’s recent Q&A.

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Cameroon's Forgotten Anglophone Conflict

Fri, 15 Oct 2021 13:15:36 GMT

For almost five years, Cameroon’s western provinces have been wracked by a deadly separatist insurgency. In 2016, Anglophone protesters took to the streets angry at the increasing use of French in courtrooms and schools. The government’s crackdown fuelled support for separatism and the emergence of several separatist militias calling for a new state: Ambazonia. Separatists attacked security forces and for years also enforced a school boycott, depriving hundreds of thousands of children of their education. For the most part, Paul Biya’s government has refused to talk directly to separatist leaders and has waged a brutal military campaign. Violence has killed thousands of people and displaced some 700,000 more. For now, no end is in sight.

In the latest episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk with Arrey Elvis Ntui, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Cameroon, about the war, its toll and prospects for a settlement. They discuss the origins of Anglophone grievances and the motives of separatists and Biya’s government in Yaoundé. They also talk about the role women play in both the insurgency and peacemaking efforts. They ask what a peaceful settlement would look like, and the role Cameroon’s foreign partners could play in getting the parties to the table.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Cameroon page. Make sure to keep an eye out for our upcoming report.

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Lebanon is Falling Apart

Fri, 08 Oct 2021 13:59:48 GMT

Lebanon is in the midst of what the World Bank describes as what could be one of the worst economic crises of the past 150 years. Over three-quarters of the population have been plunged into poverty, often struggling to obtain food, medicine and basic necessities amid rampant inflation, currency collapse and widespread shortages. State institutions, including the security forces and police, are increasingly strained. Unrest has mounted as political elites defer necessary reform. The newly appointed government has promised to break the deadlock but it is difficult to see the path out of the crisis, especially with elections only months away.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Naz and Richard are joined by Heiko Wimmen, director of Crisis Group’s Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon Project to discuss the country’s plight. They discuss the origins of the crisis, its everyday consequences for Lebanese citizens, the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the role played by competing political factions, including Hezbollah. Three decades after the end of the devastating civil war, they ask what Lebanon’s economic implosion means for relations among the country’s sects and assess risks of violence.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Lebanon page. Make sure to look out for our upcoming report on the political and social ramifications of the crisis.

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Could Talking to Mali's Jihadists Bring Peace?

Fri, 01 Oct 2021 13:30:36 GMT

The war in the Sahel appears to have reached a stalemate. In Mali, fighting pits the Malian security forces, backed by regional militaries and French special forces and airpower, against an al-Qaeda-linked jihadist coalition, JNIM (the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims). Since Mali’s crisis in 2012-2013, efforts to defeat jihadist militants have only seen their influence expand. Violence has spread across the Sahel at terrible human cost. Two successive coups in Bamako, Mali’s capital, have fuelled political instability. French officials appear exasperated by the lack of progress. Yet militants themselves are also under pressure, with several leaders killed over recent years.

In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Ibrahim Yahaya Ibrahim, Crisis Group’s Sahel expert, to ask whether it is time for a new approach. They take stock of the insurgency’s current state, its aims and JNIM’s relationship with al-Qaeda. They discuss the future of the French presence and the consequences of the recent coups. They also speak at length about prospects for talks between the government and JNIM leaders, what such talks might entail and the challenges such a path would pose.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Sahel and Mali regional pages as well as our work on Jihad in Modern Conflict. Be sure to keep an eye out for Ibrahim’s upcoming report.

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Avoiding Another Afghanistan: Could Al-Shabaab Seize Power in Somalia?

Fri, 24 Sep 2021 14:12:59 GMT

Many people in the Somali capital Mogadishu watched with apprehension as the Taliban seized control of Afghanistan. Could Somalia, struggling against its own Islamist insurgency -- Al—Shabaab -- face a similar fate? In this episode of Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Omar Mahmood, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Somalia, to discuss the resurgence of Al—Shabaab as political instability wracks the country and the withdrawal of African Union troops potentially looms. They discuss the state of the insurgency, the capability of Somali defence forces, the troubled relationship between the central government and Somalia’s regions, and the role of East African and other foreign powers. They also talk about whether there is any hope of a political settlement with Al—Shabaab.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Somalia and Horn of Africa pages.

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License to Kill: Lawyering in the War on Terror

Thu, 16 Sep 2021 13:54:53 GMT

Only days after the 9/11 attacks, Congress ushered in extraordinarily broad legislation that authorised President Bush to use military force in order to eliminate terrorist threats to the U.S. In this episode of Hold Your Fire! – the second in a podcast series looking at the legacy of the 9/11 attacks – Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Stephen Pomper, Crisis Group's Interim Chief of Policy, to discuss the lasting legacy of this Authorisation for the Use of Military Force (AUMF). They discuss the forthcoming Crisis Group report on the topic, “Overkill: Reforming the Legal Basis for the War on Terror”, reflecting on how the AUMF became the legal basis for increasingly wide-ranging military actions embraced by successive administrations, from Bush to Biden, as the fighting against Islamist militants expanded in scope. They also discuss the role of law and lawyers in establishing the boundaries of presidential authority and the consequences of diminished congressional oversight.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our United States page. This episode also features as part of our series The Legacy of 9/11 and the "War on Terror”.

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Al-Qaeda and ISIS Twenty Years after 9/11

Fri, 10 Sep 2021 15:35:51 GMT

On the eve of the twentieth anniversary of the 9/11 attacks, a new episode of Hold Your Fire! looks at the shadow cast by the “global war on terror” across South Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh discuss how Islamist militants – groups like al-Qaeda and later ISIS – have fared in twenty years marked by the Afghanistan and Iraq wars, the 2011 Arab revolutions, the war in Syria and U.S. counter-terrorism operations in many other corners of the world. They talk about al-Qaeda’s recovery after losing its safe havens in Afghanistan, its vicious local branch in Iraq and its expansion through affiliates elsewhere. They also discuss how al-Qaeda’s Iraq branch exploited the Syrian war and evolved into ISIS, and the later struggle between ISIS and al-Qaeda. They take stock of where Islamist militancy stands today, with groups fighting in an increasing number of warzones across Africa and in light of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. They examine what efforts against militants look like today and some of the flaws of existing counter-terrorism policy.

The episode is the first in a series on this podcast looking at the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks and the impact of the “global war on terror”. For Crisis Group's other publications on this topic, see our series The Legacy of 9/11 and the "War on Terror”.

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Afghanistan: the Islamic State, still no Taliban government and a looming humanitarian catastrophe

Fri, 03 Sep 2021 16:48:56 GMT

After days of chaos at Kabul airport, including an attack by the Islamic State’s local chapter, the last American plane has left, ending the Americans’ twenty-year war against the Taliban. As yet, the Taliban have not announced a new government, and what its rule will look like remains unclear. Afghanistan’s neighbours, other regional powers and Western governments are still working out what engagement with the new government will entail.

This week Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh welcome back Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss, who is joined by Graeme Smith, a long-time Crisis Group consultant on Afghanistan, to discuss where things stand. They talk about the Islamic State in Afghanistan, its battles with the Taliban and the Taliban’s relations with other transnational militants, including al-Qaeda. They also discuss the emerging resistance in the Panjshir valley, why the Taliban are taking time to form a government, the increasingly desperate humanitarian crisis and what the world can do to address it. They talk about how regional governments appear to be positioning themselves regarding Taliban rule, some of the dilemmas this poses for Western powers and how much the Taliban might be prepared to compromise in return for recognition, sanctions relief and aid.

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Special Episode: What Will the Taliban Do Next?

Thu, 19 Aug 2021 10:28:35 GMT

The Taliban is back in power in Afghanistan. A few days ago, insurgents entered the Afghan capital Kabul, topping off a week in which they had swept through cities and towns across the country. Back from a summer hiatus for this special episode, Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group expert Ibraheem Bahiss about some of the decisions the group will have to make. What will a Taliban government look like? Will the movement share power? What will its rule look like? Will it roll back some of the freedoms Afghans – women in particular – have enjoyed over the past two decades? How will it pay for the costs of running a state? What will its foreign relations look like? They unpack these key questions and what the days ahead could hold for Afghanistan.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Afghanistan page.

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Iraq: Protests, Iran’s Role and an End to U.S. Combat Operations

Fri, 30 Jul 2021 14:58:13 GMT

After a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi earlier this week, U.S. President Joe Biden announced that American forces would end their combat mission in Iraq by the end of 2021. Biden’s announcement comes after a turbulent few years for Iraq. Mass protests saw young people camp out in city and town squares across much of the country despite harsh crackdowns by security forces and Iran-backed paramilitaries. Although demonstrations forced one government to step down and have largely dissipated this year, few of the protesters’ grievances have been addressed, and it is far from clear whether elections in October this year offer a chance for political renewal. In this week’s episode, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Lahib Higel, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Iraq, to talk about Iraqi politics, Iran’s role, how much of a threat ISIS poses, and what an end to U.S. combat operations likely means for the country.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Iraq page.

This is the last episode of the first season of Hold Your Fire!. Please do get in touch with any feedback for the hosts or ideas for the next season at podcasts@crisisgroup.org.

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The Taliban’s Advance in Afghanistan

Thu, 22 Jul 2021 14:25:31 GMT

The past few weeks have seen sweeping gains by Taliban insurgents across parts of Afghanistan as U.S. forces withdraw. This week, Richard Atwood is joined by Laurel Miller, Crisis Group’s Asia director, and Andrew Watkins, Crisis Group’s senior Afghanistan analyst, to discuss what is arguably the most dramatic shift in the Afghan war since the U.S. intervention 20 years ago ousted the then Taliban government. Andrew describes the Taliban’s steady expansion into many of Afghanistan’s districts and what it means for the government’s control in bigger cities and other provincial capitals. They discuss the Taliban’s political and military strategy as foreign forces pull out. Laurel looks at how the evolving battlefield dynamics are viewed in Washington and the broader debates around the future of U.S. policy in South Asia. They discuss what the Taliban’s advance means for peace talks between the insurgents and the Afghan government and other factions. They talk about how Afghanistan’s neighbours and other regional powers view what is happening and what their policies might entail. They also look at what foreign powers would ideally do in the months ahead and what people should watch for a sense of the conflict’s trajectory.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Afghanistan page.

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#WhatsHappeningInMyanmar

Thu, 15 Jul 2021 12:32:37 GMT

Six months after the military seized power in Myanmar, mass strikes and a brutal crackdown by the regime continue to paralyse the country – as the economy and public services, including the health system, have collapsed and new forms of armed resistance are emerging. Joining Richard Atwood and guest co-host Comfort Ero this week to discuss what’s happening in the country is Richard Horsey, Crisis Group’s senior adviser for Myanmar. Richard describes new forms of armed resistance emerging against the regime and the military’s heavy-handed retaliation that has displaced tens of thousands of people. He explains how these locally organised civilian militias have altered what was already a complex conflict landscape. They discuss the relationship among these new militias, underground resistance cells in cities like Yangon and Mandalay, the opposition National Unity Government and the ethnic armed groups that have long operated in parts of the country. They look at whether there is any hope of the regime changing course. They also examine what options exist for outside powers to ease humanitarian suffering and try to find a way out of the crisis.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Myanmar page.

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Ten Years of South Sudanese Statehood

Thu, 08 Jul 2021 14:04:23 GMT

This week marks the tenth anniversary of South Sudan’s independence, much-celebrated at the time but now eclipsed by the brutal civil war that followed. The conflict, which saw the army split along ethnic lines, killed an estimated 400,000 people and displaced a third of the country’s population. A 2018 peace deal signed by the war’s two main protagonists, President Salva Kiir and his former Vice President Riek Machar, ended much of the fighting. But millions still suffer from chronic hunger and unchecked militia violence. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Alan Boswell, Crisis Group’s senior analyst for South Sudan, for an in-depth look at the past decade of statehood, the problems still blighting the world’s newest country and prospects for turning the page on the brutal civil war.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our South Sudan page.

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A Dramatic Turn in Ethiopia’s Tigray War

Thu, 01 Jul 2021 14:39:53 GMT

Earlier this week, fighters loyal to the ousted leaders of Ethiopia’s Tigray region recaptured Mekelle, the regional capital, as Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed withdrew federal forces and announced a unilateral ceasefire after eight months of brutal war. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to William Davison, senior analyst for Ethiopia, about this dramatic turnaround, its immediate fallout and what may come next. William explains how Tigrayan forces managed to consolidate control in rural areas, build up forces thanks in large part to popular support and launch attacks on Tigrayan cities and towns. They look at the balance of power in Tigray today and the likelihood of further fighting between Tigrayan forces and those of Eritrea, who were fighting alongside the Ethiopian army. They also examine prospects for a Tigrayan offensive to capture back disputed territory currently held by the Amhara, another of Ethiopia’s ethnic groups. William explains how Abiy has portrayed the withdrawal of government troops and the potential implications of their retreat for his popularity in the rest of Ethiopia. They also discuss the importance of getting aid in and what international actors should focus on in the days ahead.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page.

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Biden in Europe

Thu, 24 Jun 2021 13:19:52 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Michael Hanna, Crisis Group’s U.S. Program director, to talk about U.S. President Joe Biden’s first overseas trip since taking office. Biden embarked on a tour of European capitals last week, with a first leg at the G7 summit in the UK, followed by meetings with EU and NATO officials in Brussels and finally a meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Geneva. Michael explains that while Biden’s predecessor Donald Trump’s legacy still looms large, his presence among European allies signals a return to more traditional U.S. diplomacy, even if their collective pledge on the distribution of COVID-19 vaccines to vulnerable countries was underwhelming. They discuss prospects for the alliance of democracies Biden had talked up before the trip, the tone and conclusions of the Brussels meetings, and U.S.-Turkey relations after Biden’s first face-to-face encounter with Turkish President Recip Tayyep Erdogan. Michael also unpacks what Biden’s meeting with President Putin means for the future of U.S.-Russia relations. They then discuss the Biden administration’s deepening rivalry with China and the potential dangers in such an approach.

For more information, browse Crisis Group’s analysis on our U.S. page.

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Iran: the Vote and the Bomb

Thu, 17 Jun 2021 15:02:07 GMT

As Iranians go to the polls on Friday to elect a new president, Iranian diplomats are meeting their Western counterparts in Vienna in their latest efforts to get back to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Ali Vaez, Crisis Group’s senior adviser to the president and Iran project director, for an in-depth look at the elections, the nuclear talks and Iran’s role in the region. Ali explains that while elections in the Islamic Republic are never free or fair, this vote is likely to be even less competitive than usual, with the playing field narrowed to favour current front runner, the hardliner Ebrahim Raisi. They talk about how this could relate to Supreme Leader Ali Khameini’s succession plans. They also talk about where things stand in the talks over Iran’s nuclear program, with U.S. and other diplomats locked in a sixth round of talks with their Iranian counterparts aimed at reviving the nuclear deal. They discuss what would happen if the parties fail to reach an agreement. They also talk about the deal’s significance for regional politics and whether recent talks between Iranian and Saudi officials in the Iraqi capital Baghdad offer some hope of calming the bitter Iran-Saudi rivalry that has overshadowed the region for decades.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Iran page.

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COVID-19, Inequality and Protests in Colombia

Thu, 10 Jun 2021 11:56:32 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Renata Segura, deputy program director for Latin America and the Carribean, and Beth Dickinson, senior analyst for Colombia, about the anti-government protests across Colombia. They discuss what the deadly unrest looks like, a controversial tax reform proposed in April that triggered protests and the blockades that have sprung up across the country’s cities, towns and villages. They unpack protesters’ demands, notably the role of the COVID-19 pandemic in aggravating already rife inequality, and how police crackdowns have further fuelled people’s anger. They also talk about how Colombian society views the protests, whether protesters’ demands are widely shared and how likely it is that President Ivan Duque’s government will take measures to address their grievances. They discuss the likelihood of similar protests elsewhere in Latin America, given that many other countries in the region suffer the same inequality, worsened by COVID, that has taken people to the streets in Colombia.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Colombia page.

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The Insurrection in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado

Thu, 03 Jun 2021 15:33:13 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and guest co-host Comfort Ero, our Interim Vice President and Africa Program Director, talk to Crisis Group’s Deputy Africa Director Dino Mahtani about the insurrection unfolding in Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado region. The militants - known locally as al-Shabab, and now labelled by the U.S. as a branch of the Islamic State - have been terrorising the population for years now without clearly stating their demands. Dino talks about who they really are and what their interests might be. He also discusses the Southern African Development Community (SADC) meeting in Maputo coming up in two weeks’ time, when the bloc plans to lobby for the deployment of a regional force, amid growing fears that the conflict could spread beyond the borders of Mozambique. Dino unpacks the government’s response to al-Shabab, its turn to Rwanda for military support as it attempts to diversify its security partners, and what the next steps should be.

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What Does Hamas Want?

Thu, 27 May 2021 15:22:06 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood talks to Tareq Baconi, Crisis Group’s senior Israel/Palestine analyst, about Hamas, the Palestinian Islamist movement that governs Gaza. They talk about how Hamas views the latest bout of violence which saw the group fire more than 4,000 rockets at Israel, provoking Israel’s bombardment of the strip. Tareq looks at how Palestinians in Gaza and elsewhere view the movement, its relations with its main Palestinian rival Fatah and its efforts to navigate geopolitical changes in the Middle East. They also discuss the conditions imposed by the Quartet (the European Union, Russia, the UN and U.S.) on Hamas after it won elections in 2006: that the group recognise Israel, as well as previous agreements with Israel, and renounce violence. They discuss debates within Hamas about those conditions and about its use of tactics that target civilians. They talk about whether, after this latest bout of fighting, there is any prospect of moving beyond an uneasy ceasefire punctuated by outbreaks of Hamas rocket fire and Israeli bombardments that perpetuate suffering in Gaza.

For more information:

Tareq Baconi, “Hamas Contained: The Rise and Pacification of Palestinian Resistance”, Stanford University Press
Explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Israel/Palestine page

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Another War: Views from Israel/Palestine

Thu, 20 May 2021 15:24:14 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood talks to Crisis Group experts Azmi Keshawi, Tahani Mustafa and Mairav Zonszein, respectively based in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, about the latest war – the fourth between Hamas and Israel in the past fifteen years. Azmi talks about his experiences in Gaza under intense Israeli bombardment, what Hamas hopes to achieve with its rocket fire into Israel and whether anything will change for Gaza after a ceasefire. Tahani and Mairav discuss how the war and the events that led to it have looked from the West Bank and East Jerusalem and from Israel. They discuss how Israeli and Palestinian leaders have responded and what Israel hopes to achieve with the bombardment of Gaza. They describe the violence between Palestinians and Israeli Jews in Israel and the West Bank and how much that is a game changer for Israel. They also talk about the shifting terms of the debate in the U.S. within the Democratic party and what that might mean for American policy. They reflect on how much a ceasefire would change the conditions that led to the fighting and what the longer-term implications of this latest war are for Israelis and Palestinians.

For more information:

Read our recent Q&A: The Israel-Palestine Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Portents.
Hold Your Fire! E34: Delayed Palestinian Polls, Israeli Politics and U.S. Middle East Policy

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UN Security Council Crankiness and Antonio Guterres' Re-election

Wed, 12 May 2021 15:14:41 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group’s UN Director Richard Gowan. They reflect back on Antonio Guterres’ first term as UN Secretary-General now that he is seeking a second. They discuss his approach to crisis diplomacy, some of the challenges and some of the successes over the past five years. They also talk about Security Council dynamics, particularly the fraught relations among its most powerful members, and what those mean for its role and that of the Secretary-General in peacemaking. They look ahead to the big challenges Guterres is likely to face in the next five years.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Multilateral Diplomacy page.

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Delayed Palestinian Polls, Israeli Politics and U.S. Middle East Policy

Thu, 06 May 2021 14:56:12 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Daniel Levy, president of the U.S./Middle East Project, which works in partnership with Crisis Group on Israel/Palestine. They talk about why President Mahmoud Abbas indefinitely postponed Palestinian elections, and why not holding the vote is a wasted opportunity and a disappointment to many Palestinians. They discuss recent Israeli elections, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s struggles to form a government and whether those make any difference to Israel’s policy toward the Palestinians. They also talk about what the Biden administration’s Israel/Palestine policy might entail, prospects for a “rights-based” approach and the recent Human Rights Watch report that labels Israeli policies toward the Palestinians as “apartheid”.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Israel/Palestine page.

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What Déby’s Death Means for Chad and the Region

Thu, 29 Apr 2021 13:38:10 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group’s Project Director for Central Africa Richard Moncrieff and Crisis Group’s Libya expert Claudia Gazzini about what the death of Chadian President Idriss Déby means for the country and for the Sahel region and the connection between Chadian rebel groups and Libya. They unpack possible scenarios now that Déby’s son, Mahamat Déby, has assumed power and formed a transitional military council, provoking popular protests in response. They look at what drove the Front for Change and Concord’s (FACT) recent rebel incursion from Libya into Chad that led to Déby’s death. They also discuss Chad’s military engagement against jihadist groups in the Lake Chad basin and the Sahel, and what the future might hold for those operations.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Chad page.

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Rising Russia-Ukraine Tensions and the West

Thu, 22 Apr 2021 14:04:23 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group’s program director for Europe and Central Asia, Olga Oliker, about rising tensions between Russia, on one hand, and Ukraine and Western capitals on the other, over Moscow’s recent military build-up at the Ukrainian border. They talk about the motives behind Russia’s deployments, how they are being perceived in Kyiv, the situation in separatist-held parts of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region and why the peace process has stalled. Olga describes the broader standoff between Russia and the West, of which disagreements over Ukraine are an important – but far from the only – factor. They also look at how U.S. and European leaders should respond and what might help reverse the dangerous escalation in Donbas, with a view to returning to the 2020 ceasefire agreement and peace talks.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ukraine page.

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Is The Gulf Dispute Actually Over?

Thu, 15 Apr 2021 14:27:31 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group’s Senior Adviser for the Middle East and North Africa, Dina Esfandiary, about what drove Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, among other Gulf states, to cut diplomatic ties with Qatar in 2017, why the Gulf Arab countries announced an end to the crisis in January 2021 and whether the rift is truly over.

They reflect on what this means for the foreign policies of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and how their leaders see their priorities and challenges in the region. They also discuss what the spat has meant for crises across the region where the GCC countries are involved.

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How Afghanistan Views the U.S. Troop Drawdown

Thu, 08 Apr 2021 13:55:31 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group’s senior analyst for Afghanistan, Andrew Watkins, about the fast-approaching 1 May deadline for U.S. troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, the stalled peace process and ongoing violence across the country. In February 2020, the U.S. struck a deal with Taliban leaders. It entailed the U.S. pledging to withdraw its forces and the Taliban agreeing not to allow Afghanistan to be used for international terrorism and to enter talks with the Afghan government. Those Afghan peace talks have made little progress, even as the deadline for the U.S. drawdown looms. Andrew talks about how Afghan factions view the U.S. withdrawal, what neighbours and other regional powers think and dangers for the country in the months ahead.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on Afghanistan page.

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Tshisekedi Consolidates Power in DR Congo

Thu, 01 Apr 2021 13:16:12 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz Modirzadeh and guest co-host Comfort Ero, our Interim Vice President and Africa Program Director, talk to Nelleke van de Walle, Crisis Group’s Central Africa Deputy Project Director, about the challenges preventing the Democratic Republic of Congo from moving forward. They discuss President Tshisekedi’s consolidation of power and the still strong influence of former President Joseph Kabila. Nelleke says that President Tshisekedi needs to step up and make sure he doesn’t become what he replaced. She also warns about the fraught security landscape in eastern DR Congo, where the recent U.S. designation of the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) as a foreign terrorist organisation could have unintended consequences for peacemaking and humanitarian efforts.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our DR Congo page.

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Ethiopia’s Tigray Crisis and Horn of Africa Politics

Thu, 25 Mar 2021 12:57:01 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood, Crisis Group’s interim president, and guest host Comfort Ero, our interim vice president and Africa Program director, talk to Murithi Mutiga, Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, about the fighting in Tigray and its implications for regional politics. Murithi sheds light on the calculations of Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, rebel Tigray leaders and Eritrea, which has also sent forces into Tigray. He talks through the Horn of Africa’s evolving geopolitics, growing friction between Ethiopia and its neighbours, and the state of play of both Ethiopia’s and Sudan’s transitions. He looks at what continental and world leaders need to do to end the Tigray crisis and calm escalating regional tensions.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Ethiopia page.

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Good News in Libya?

Thu, 18 Mar 2021 13:15:24 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh talk to Crisis Group’s Libya expert, Claudia Gazzini, about the historic turn of events resulting in a new unity government in Libya. After years of chaos, division and war, often fuelled by foreign powers, the past six months saw Libyan leaders engage in UN-led peace talks and agree to an interim cabinet headed by Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh. Claudia talks through events that led the warring parties and their external backers to agree to the unity government, the benefits of the UN’s inclusive, multitrack process, the significance of a peaceful handover of power and the challenges that lie ahead for Dbeibeh’s government.

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The War on Drugs in Colombia’s Countryside

Thu, 11 Mar 2021 14:45:25 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh speak with Beth Dickinson, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Colombia, about the Colombian government’s new war on drugs and the escalation of violence in rural areas. Beth unpacks the complex dynamics between vulnerable farming communities, criminal groups vying for control over illicit markets, and security forces failing to contain the bloodshed. She explains how the downward spiral undermines the 2016 peace process. They discuss Crisis Group’s recent reports on the subject, including how women’s involvement in coca cultivation means they are at particular risk of violence, why armed groups have emerged as winners of the post-FARC peace deal, and the social activists and leaders caught in the crossfire. They also look at what an alternative to Bogota’s current heavy-handed approach would look like.

For more information, read Crisis Group’s reports: Deeply Rooted: Coca Eradication and Violence in Colombia and Leaders under Fire: Defending Colombia’s Front Line of Peace.

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Special Episode: Gender and Conflict

Mon, 08 Mar 2021 16:14:50 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz Modirzadeh and Richard Atwood talk to Azadeh Moaveni, Crisis Group’s Gender Project Director, in honor of International Women’s Day. They look at the challenges in implementing the goals of UN Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace, and Security twenty years after its adoption. Azadeh also talks about Crisis Group’s work on gender and conflict. She details recent research on the dangers for local women’s groups of getting involved in counter-terrorism. She also talks about her well-reviewed book on young women joining ISIS, Guest House for Young Widows, about women’s involvement with other militant groups, including Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram, and about the controversy over repatriating ISIS-affiliated women and children from Syria and Iraq.

For more information, explore Crisis Group’s analysis on our Gender & Conflict page.

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A Dangerous New Turn in Yemen’s War

Thu, 04 Mar 2021 13:34:39 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz Modirzadeh and Richard Atwood speak with Peter Salisbury, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Yemen, about Yemen’s multilayered conflict, now in its seventh year. They look at the state of play in Marib, where an offensive by Huthi forces could worsen what the UN already calls the world’s worst humanitarian disaster. Peter unpacks the complex alliances and rivalries among the conflict parties. They also discuss how Yemen fits into U.S. President Joe Biden’s still evolving Gulf policy, including U.S. relations with Iran and Saudi Arabia.

For more information, see:

Crisis in Marib: Averting a Chain Reaction in Yemen

Rethinking Peace in Yemen

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The War in the Sahel

Thu, 25 Feb 2021 15:28:37 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz Modirzadeh and Richard Atwood are joined by Jean-Hervé Jezequel, Crisis Group’s Sahel Project Director, for a frank look at why French-led efforts to weaken the jihadist grip on the Sahel and restore regional stability have foundered. He describes the lay of the land today, how jihadist groups have exploited the void left by states, and why emphasis should be shifted to local-level dialogue and governance to effectively reverse the spiral of violence.

For more information, see our latest report: A Course Correction for the Sahel Stabilisation Strategy

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The Coup in Myanmar

Thu, 18 Feb 2021 11:33:45 GMT

Why did the generals seize power on 1 February in Myanmar? With protests gathering steam, what does the future hold? How should outside actors respond?

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood, Crisis Group’s Interim President, and guest host Comfort Ero, our Interim Vice President and Africa Program Director, speak with Richard Horsey, Crisis Group’s Senior Adviser on Myanmar.

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Latin America’s Tough Year Ahead

Thu, 11 Feb 2021 16:01:38 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz Modirzadeh and Richard Atwood speak with Ivan Briscoe, Crisis Group’s Program Director for Latin America and the Caribbean, and discuss the current situation in the region following a tumultuous year. Ivan examines the impact of COVID-19 in Latin America, from stifling public protests to reducing homicide rates, and whether we are likely to see these trends continue. He explains how Venezuela has affected the region as a whole and touches on solutions going forward. Due to the complex history of international intervention in Latin America, finding an answer won’t be easy.

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Africa in 2021

Fri, 05 Feb 2021 12:29:41 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz Modirzadeh and Richard Atwood bid farewell to Rob Malley, who has left Crisis Group to join the Biden administration, and discuss trends on the African continent in 2021 with Crisis Group’s Africa Program Director and interim Vice President Comfort Ero. Comfort points out the rising violent jihadist threat in the Sahel, the Lake Chad basin, Somalia and Mozambique, the risky political transitions and tense elections in Uganda and Ethiopia, and the role of African powers in the continent’s crises.

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Syria’s Frozen Conflict

Thu, 28 Jan 2021 12:48:10 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz Modirzadeh and Richard Atwood host Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Syria, Dareen Khalifa, for a wide-ranging discussion of how the war in that country, until lately one of the world’s hottest, has cooled down over the past year. Dareen unpacks the de facto division of Syria into four parts, each controlled by a different faction with different outside allies, and explains what the future likely holds for each part.

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U.S. Sanctions: An Overused Foreign Policy Tool?

Thu, 21 Jan 2021 14:55:44 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Naz Modirzadeh and Richard Atwood host Crisis Group’s Iran Project Director, Ali Vaez, and Senior Analyst for Venezuela, Phil Gunson, to assess Washington’s unilateral sanctions on Tehran and Caracas. They argue that the Trump administration’s "maximum pressure" policy had none of the intended effects on the Iranian and Venezuelan governments but had dramatic ill effects on civilians. The unintended consequences highlight the responsibility that comes with the power to impose these penalties, as does the difficulty of reversing them.

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Social Media and the U.S. Capitol Events

Thu, 14 Jan 2021 12:49:54 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and Naz Modirzadeh host Sheera Frenkel, New York Times cybersecurity reporter and author of An Ugly Truth: Inside Facebook's Battle for Domination, to discuss the role that social media platforms played in the mob assault on the U.S. Capitol and the response, or lack thereof, to online disinformation by Big Tech companies. They also talk to Peter Salisbury, Crisis Group’s Yemen Senior Analyst, who warns of dire consequences for Yemen if the U.S. does not quickly overturn its recent designation of the Huthis as a terrorist group.

Background readings:

Sheera Frenkel: An Ugly Truth: Inside Facebook's Battle for Domination

Crisis Group: The U.S. Should Reverse Its Huthi Terror Designation

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10 Conflicts to Watch in 2021

Thu, 07 Jan 2021 15:08:08 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and Naz Modirzadeh host Crisis Group’s Chief of Policy Richard Atwood in a special episode on Crisis Group’s flagship publication “10 Conflicts to Watch in 2021”, discussing the hot-spots we chose to feature, the opportunities for conflict resolution and the legacy of Donald Trump’s foreign’s policy, as well as debating the conventional wisdom that there is no military solution to political conflict.

Background readings:

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Trump’s Morocco-Israel Transaction

Thu, 17 Dec 2020 13:27:10 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood unpack the normalization of relations between Israel and Morocco with Century Foundation Fellow Dahlia Scheindlin and talk with Crisis Group’s North Africa Project Director Riccardo Fabiani about how U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara could affect the conflict over this territory. They also address the elections in Venezuela and what the rollout of the first COVID-19 vaccine could mean for conflict prevention as well as Richard’s 100-year-old grandmother.

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Michael Kovrig: Two Years in Arbitrary Detention in China

Thu, 10 Dec 2020 14:09:39 GMT

This week marks two years of detention in China for our colleague Michael Kovrig, for no reason other than being a Canadian in the wrong place at the wrong time. Rob Malley and guest host Brittany Brown dedicate this episode of Hold Your Fire! to Michael’s case and talk with his wife Vina Nadjibulla about Michael’s resilience in prison, the conditions there, the letters they have exchanged, the geopolitical intricacies of his case and her relentless fight at the highest levels of government to get him out and safely home.

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Regime Change Re-examined

Thu, 03 Dec 2020 13:43:39 GMT

In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood take on the U.S. “forever wars” with Phil Gordon, a former adviser to President Barack Obama and author of the acclaimed book Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East (St. Martin's Press, October 2020). Rob also addresses one of the most pressing foreign policy decisions the incoming Biden administration will face: should the U.S. simply go back to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal or should it aim for a more ambitious agreement with Tehran?

Background reading:

Losing the Long Game: The False Promise of Regime Change in the Middle East, Philip H. Gordon. St. Martin's Press.

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Afghanistan's Peace Process

Thu, 26 Nov 2020 14:59:30 GMT

In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood unpack the state of talks among the U.S., and Afghan governments and the Taliban about a peace deal, along with Crisis Group’s Asia Program Director Laurel Miller, who served as acting U.S. Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. They also address the expulsion of Crisis Group Senior Analyst Will Davison from Ethiopia and reflect on how the organization does its work in wartime.

Background readings by Crisis Group:

Afghanistan's Peace Process Will Be Long, Incremental, and in Need of a Mediator

Ethiopia Expels Crisis Group Senior Analyst

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Ethnicity and Conflict in Myanmar

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 16:34:31 GMT

In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood talk about the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh with Crisis Group Europe Program Director Olya Oliker. Then they speak with Crisis Group expert Richard Horsey about Myanmar’s identity crisis as it emerges from the second democratic elections in its history.

Background readings by Crisis Group:

Another Landslide Victory for Aung San Suu Kyi’s Party in Myanmar – But at What Cost? - November 2020 Q&A
Identity Crisis: Ethnicity and Conflict in Myanmar - August 2020 report

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“First, Do No Harm”: A New U.S. Foreign Policy under Biden?

Fri, 13 Nov 2020 15:43:11 GMT

In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Brittany Brown compare their own experience with presidential transitions to the Trump administration’s refusal thus far to pave the way for Joe Biden’s arrival at the White House. They then explore what a Biden foreign policy could look like with Matt Duss, foreign policy adviser for Senator Bernie Sanders, evoking the motto: “First, do no harm”.

Background readings by Crisis Group:

Staving off Violence around Somalia’s Elections - 2020 Briefing

Ethiopia: Not too Late to Stop Tigray Conflict from Unravelling Country - 2020 Op-Ed

Algérie: un air de déjà vu? - 2020 Q&A

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Protests against Police Brutality Shake Nigeria

Thu, 05 Nov 2020 16:59:36 GMT

In this week’s episode of Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Richard Atwood try to make sense of a very convoluted electoral map, with no clear winner, the day after the U.S. election. They then turn to the protests against police brutality that have shaken Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, with Crisis Group Senior Adviser Nnamdi Obasi and Africa Program Director Comfort Ero. Lastly, they offer an update on the sadly predictable military escalation in Ethiopia.

Background readings by Crisis Group:

Nigeria’s #EndSARS Protest: De-escalate Tensions, Start Deep Police Reform

The Islamic State Franchises in Africa: Lessons from Lake Chad

Facing the Challenge of the Islamic State in West Africa Province

Violence in Nigeria’s North West: Rolling Back the Mayhem

Video: The Fate of Women Who Lived With Boko Haram

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Can the U.S. Avoid an Election Crisis?

Thu, 29 Oct 2020 13:29:40 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob Malley and guest host Steve Pomper talk about a bizarre Oval Office meeting that enraged Ethiopia and a must-watch documentary about social media. Then they take a deep dive into the risks of election-related violence in the United States with Carnegie Senior Fellow Rachel Kleinfeld. She unpacks the combination of risks that place the 2020 presidential contest in a category apart from any other in memory.

Background readings by Crisis Group:
The U.S. Presidential Election: Managing the Risks of Violence
Too Much to Lose: Steering the U.S. Away from Election-Related Violence

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What Makes Peace? Colombia’s Ex-President Santos Says It’s Harder than War

Thu, 22 Oct 2020 12:01:46 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, former Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos takes Rob and Naz behind the scenes of the negotiations with the FARC guerrillas that achieved a peace deal and won him the Nobel Peace Prize. Santos, also a Crisis Group Trustee, explains that making peace was much harder than leading the war effort. Beth Dickinson, Crisis Group’s analyst for Colombia, joins the conversation to give an update on how the peace agreement is working out.

Background reading by Crisis Group:

Leaders under Fire: Defending Colombia’s Front Line of Peace - 2020 report mentioned by Rob in the interview
The Missing Peace: Colombia’s New Government and Last Guerrillas - 2018 report
Colombia’s Armed Groups Battle for the Spoils of Peace - 2017 report

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Turkey Flexes Its Foreign Policy Muscles

Thu, 15 Oct 2020 15:39:14 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob and Naz talk with Nigar Göksel, Crisis Group’s Turkey director, about how Turkey is flexing its muscles in its near abroad — Syria, Iraq, the eastern Mediterranean, and now Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as farther afield in Libya. Then they get an update on the Azerbaijani side of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh from Zaur Shiriyev, Crisis Group’s analyst in Baku.

Background readings by Crisis Group:

Crisis Group Statement (October 14): Reducing the Human Cost of the New Nagorno-Karabakh War

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What’s Behind the Fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh

Thu, 08 Oct 2020 14:02:31 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob and Naz question the efficacy of international sanctions, as the European Union wields this overused tool against Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko. They are then joined by Olesya Vartanyan, Crisis Group’s senior South Caucasus analyst, for a very personal conversation about the toll the fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh has taken on her friends on both sides as well as an analysis of the role played by Turkey, Russia, and other external actors in the conflict.

Background reading by Crisis Group on the war in Nagorno-Karabakh:

De-escalating the New Nagorno-Karabakh War - statement on the most recent escalation

Digging out of Deadlock in Nagorno-Karabakh - 2019 report mentioned by Olesya in the interview

Nagorno-Karabakh’s Gathering War Clouds - 2017 report mentioned by Olesya in the interview

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: A Visual Explainer

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President Trump’s Off-the-Rails Foreign Policy

Thu, 01 Oct 2020 12:29:47 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob reminisces about his recent trip to Azerbaijan, where he saw warning signs of a “frozen conflict” ready to thaw. Naz explains why the U.S. might regret trying to designate the Huthis as a terrorist organization if it cares about helping Yemen make peace. They are joined by Aaron Miller, a veteran U.S. diplomat and Carnegie senior fellow, who examines the successes and shortcomings of President Trump’s unconventional diplomacy, and explains how the phrase “nobody ever washes a rental car” applies to conflict prevention.

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Libya's Proxy War

Thu, 24 Sep 2020 13:50:20 GMT

This week on Hold Your Fire!, Rob pays a very personal homage to U.S. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg and confides about what keeps him up at night. Naz explains the convoluted legal argument laid out by the U.S. to try and justify its snapback of UN sanctions against Iran. They then turn to the complexity of the war in Libya, torn between foreign proxies and militias, with Crisis Group Senior Analyst Claudia Gazzini.

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Ethiopia's Political Crisis

Thu, 17 Sep 2020 14:42:40 GMT

Naz and Rob reflect on U.S. support for the Yemen war and the conspicuous absence of the Palestinian issue from the normalisation agreement among Israel, the UAE and Bahrain. Crisis Group's senior analyst for Ethiopia, Will Davison, then joins them to discuss the enormous challenges facing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed amid rising ethnic tensions in Africa's second-most populous country.

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Afghan Peace Talks: Dealing with the Taliban

Thu, 10 Sep 2020 15:53:06 GMT

Naz and Rob discuss French President Emmanuel Macron's dive into the murky waters of Lebanese politics and the Trump administration's stunning decision to impose sanctions on the staff of the International Criminal Court. They also speak with Andrew Watkins, Crisis Group's senior analyst for Afghanistan, about what to expect from the country's pending peace talks. Do the Taliban have the upper hand?

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Israel, the UAE, and Normalisation

Thu, 03 Sep 2020 13:18:43 GMT

In this first episode of Hold Your Fire, Naz and Rob talk about the role foreign policy played, or didn’t, at the Democratic and Republican National Conventions, and explain why the U.S. attempt to snap back UN sanctions on Iran met with an international, collective shrug. They welcome Crisis Group’s former Arab-Israeli project director, Nathan Thrall, to discuss the Israel-UAE agreement, what it means for Palestinians, and whether he believes there can be a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

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