IFS Zooms In: The Economy

What does this election mean for Scotland’s future?

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 14:26:53 GMT

Scotland receives significantly more funding per person for devolved public services than England, helping to pay for policies like free university tuition and smaller school class sizes. But despite that advantage, performance in parts of health and education remains under pressure, and Scotland’s fiscal outlook is becoming tighter.

In this episode, Helen is joined by Mairi Spowage of the Fraser of Allander Institute and IFS Associate Director David Phillips to unpack the big economic and fiscal questions hanging over the Scottish Parliament election. They explain what powers are devolved, where Scotland’s money comes from, how tax and benefit choices have made the system more progressive, and why the next Scottish Government will face difficult trade-offs.

They also discuss Scotland’s public service performance after Covid, the risks created by recent budgeting habits, and the issues politicians may prefer not to talk about as manifesto season begins.

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Will everyone have to work until they are 67?

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 15:00:00 GMT

The state pension age is rising. It is currently 66, and by 2028 it will reach 67. But what does that actually mean for the people approaching retirement, and does it really mean everyone will have to work longer?

In this episode, Helen is joined by Jonathan Cribb and Heidi Karjalainen to examine one of the biggest questions facing the pensions system: how high should the state pension age be? They discuss why it has been rising, what the state pension is designed to do, and how changes to the pension age affect work, retirement and government spending.

They also look at who is able to keep working into their late 60s, who is not, and whether a single state pension age makes sense for everyone. Along the way, they explore how the UK compares with other countries, what happens to people who cannot work up to pension age, and whether the state pension system is financially sustainable in the long run.

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Are pensioners richer than everyone else?

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 15:32:32 GMT

For decades, pensioners were one of the poorest groups in Britain. That is no longer true. Today, the average pensioner is at least as well off as the average working-age person, and in wealth terms many are far better off.

In this episode, Helen Miller is joined by Jonathan Cribb and Heidi Karjalainen to examine what the data really say about pensioner incomes, wealth and living standards. Where does pensioners’ money come from? How much is driven by the state pension, private pensions and housing wealth? Which pensioners are still struggling? And how do today’s retirees compare both with their parents’ generation and with younger people who are still working?

They also look ahead to the future: will younger generations enjoy the same living standards in retirement, or are higher house prices, lower homeownership and the decline of defined benefit pensions changing the picture? This episode sets out the big story of how pensioners’ finances have changed, and what it means for the future.

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The Spring Forecast explained

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 16:21:27 GMT

Helen Miller is joined by IFS colleagues Ben Zaranko and Bee Boileau to discuss the Spring Forecast. The headline numbers haven’t moved much since the autumn, but that stability may not last. With conflict in the Middle East pushing up oil and gas prices, the UK faces a potential negative shock: higher inflation, pressure on interest rates, and a tougher outlook for households, businesses and the public finances.

We discuss what higher energy prices could mean for government policy (from fuel duty to targeted support), why calls to raise defence spending are growing, and the scale of the trade-offs involved. We also look at three key forecast uncertainties: unemployment, migration, and volatile capital gains tax receipts. Finally, we ask how realistic tight future spending plans look ahead of the next Spending Review.

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How to fix the fiscal rules

Thu, 19 Feb 2026 15:09:30 GMT

Fiscal rules can sound technical, but they shape some of the biggest choices in economic policy: what we spend today, what we invest for tomorrow, and how we share costs across generations.

In this episode of IFS Zooms In, Helen is joined by Ben Zaranko to unpack why governments use fiscal rules, what the UK’s current rules are designed to do, and why - despite repeated promises - debt has continued to ratchet upwards. They discuss how a narrow, pass–fail approach has encouraged a fixation on “headroom”, contributed to last-minute policy changes driven by forecast movements, and crowded out wider debate about long-run sustainability.

They then set out an alternative approach: a clearer fiscal strategy at the start of each parliament, assessed against a broader dashboard of indicators rather than a single bright-line test, using a traffic-light style system to support a more transparent and nuanced public conversation about the state of the public finances.

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Are Plan 2 student loans 'unfair'?

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 15:30:00 GMT

On average, students now leave university with just over £50,000 in student loan debt. Repayments are income-contingent: many graduates will repay little or nothing, while others repay 9% of their income above a threshold for decades, often watching the outstanding balance rise. That design has led some to argue the system is unfair and to argue that students were mis-sold loans whose terms have shifted over time.

In this episode, Helen is joined by Nick Hillman, Director of the Higher Education Policy Institute and a former government adviser during the introduction of Plan 2 in the early 2010s, alongside Kate Ogen, Senior Research Economist at IFS, to unpack how the student loan system works in practice. We explain how the system has evolved across cohorts, how it differs across the UK, and when it makes sense to think of student finance as a loan versus a graduate tax. We also look at who repays what across the earnings distribution, how repayment thresholds shape lifetime payments, what changed with the move to Plan 5, and what recent policy choices mean for graduates and for the public finances.

Finally, we discuss competing claims about “fairness”, between graduates and taxpayers, among graduates, and across generations, and ask the core question: who should pay for higher education?

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Did inflation cause the cost of living crisis?

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 11:42:41 GMT

Inflation has fallen a long way from its peak - but many people still feel worse off, and price rises have remained stubbornly above the Bank of England’s 2% target. So what actually caused the big inflation spike, how close are we to “normal”, and what does that mean for households?

Helen is joined by David Miles (OBR and former member of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee) and Peter Levell (IFS) to break down the basics: what inflation is, why central banks target 2% rather than 0%, and what drove prices up so sharply in recent years.

We also dig into who inflation hits hardest, how much of the cost-of-living crisis is really about inflation, and why the Bank raises interest rates even though it can make life feel tougher in the short run.

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Does the minimum wage cost jobs?

Thu, 29 Jan 2026 15:45:00 GMT

The UK minimum wage is one of the biggest economic policy changes of the past few decades. Introduced in 1999 at £3.60 an hour, it’s now over £12 and it shapes pay for a large share of the workforce. But what has it done to jobs? And if firms pay higher wages, where does the money come from - higher prices, lower profits, or higher productivity?

In this episode, Helen is joined by Eduin Latimer (IFS) and Professor Alan Manning (LSE) to unpack what we do and don’t know about the minimum wage. We look at the evidence on employment effects, the knock-on impacts on pay compression, and whether the current minimum wage is set too high. Finally, we look ahead to the government’s ambitions, including faster rises for younger workers, and the trade-offs involved.

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Why isn’t the NHS improving faster?

Fri, 16 Jan 2026 15:28:45 GMT

The NHS holds a unique place in British life: a source of national pride, and the single biggest public service in England. This year it’s set to cost over £200 billion, around £3,500 per person, more than we spend on education, defence, justice and transport combined. And yet, despite sustained funding increases and around a quarter of a million more staff than in 2019, concerns about performance haven’t gone away.

Labour came into office promising to get a grip on record waiting times, but progress so far looks limited. The waiting list stands at 7.3 million, only slightly down from around 7.6 million when the government took office a year and a half ago. With winter pressures, flu surges, and resident doctors taking strike action, it raises a big question: what’s actually going on inside the system, and is improvement realistically on the horizon?

In this episode, Helen is joined by IFS colleagues Olly Harvey-Rich and Max Warner to unpack the data and the trade-offs. We look at winter pressures and capacity, what the latest performance metrics tell us, and the real constraints facing the NHS in England - money, productivity and system design. Finally, we look ahead to the rest of the parliament: should we be hopeful about meaningful change, or are the obstacles bigger than the plans?

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What really matters for the UK economy in 2026

Fri, 09 Jan 2026 14:25:18 GMT

Moving into 2026, the government faces a critical period of delivery. After 18 months in power and several major fiscal events behind them, the focus is shifting from setting policy to seeing it through. However, with unemployment reaching 5.1% and a series of high-stakes reviews underway, the road ahead remains complex.

In this episode, we are joined by Christine Farquharson and Tom Waters to examine the economic landscape for the year ahead. We look at the rising pressures on the public purse, from health-related benefits to the "national conversation" on SEND, and ask what the upcoming fiscal events might reveal about the government’s long-term strategy. We also look at what could shift the outlook, for better or worse, from public sector productivity to the economic impact of new technologies like AI and GLP-1 drugs.

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Tax changes in the Budget

Fri, 05 Dec 2025 12:52:07 GMT

As ever the big-picture choices in the Budget dominated media coverage - but some of the most interesting changes were buried in the detail. From electric vehicles to tourist tax, how much do these quieter tax shifts really matter?

In this episode, we dig into the lesser-noticed policies: why the government is offering upfront EV grants while planning a per-mile tax, how tweaks to salary sacrifice and cash ISAs could shape saving behaviour, and what the changes to EIS and EMI mean for investment and entrepreneurship.

Joining Helen are Stuart Adam and Ben Zaranko from the IFS to break down what’s changed, why it matters, and what the “devil in the detail” tells us about the government’s tax strategy.

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The Autumn Budget explained

Thu, 27 Nov 2025 15:51:20 GMT

This week on IFS Zooms In, host Helen Miller is joined by IFS economists Ben Zaranko and Christine Farquharson to unpack one of the biggest Autumn Budgets in years. With seventy-five policy measures, major tax and spending changes, and a striking shift in the economic forecasts, this was a Budget that surprised almost everyone.

Helen, Ben and Christine break down:

Why the expected “fiscal repair job” never arrived
How a “lucky” surge in forecast tax receipts reshaped the Chancellor’s options
The major spending stories: abolishing the two-child limit, rising welfare pressures, SEND funding reform, and tighter departmental plans
The government’s tax decisions - from threshold freezes to the new ‘mansion tax’
Whether any of this adds up to a credible long-term strategy for growth

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How could the Chancellor cut spending?

Thu, 20 Nov 2025 16:00:00 GMT

As the Chancellor prepares her Budget, attention is turning not just to how she could raise more tax - but how she might cut spending. Where does the government actually spend its money? Why is it so difficult to reduce that spending in practice? And what would it take to genuinely pare back the size of the state?

Helen Miller is joined by IFS colleagues Ben Zaranko and Tom Waters to unpack the realities behind public spending. They look at how the government’s budget is divided across welfare, public services, and investment; how pressures such as an ageing population, defence commitments and struggling services constrain choices; and whether efficiencies or productivity gains could ever plug the gap.

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Is the UK in hock to the bond market?

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 16:00:00 GMT

The bond market plays a crucial role in shaping government spending decisions - but how much power does it really have? With a Budget around the corner, are investors or Rachel Reeves setting the limits on fiscal policy?

In this episode, we unpack how the government borrows, why it’s so expensive right now, and what “fiscal credibility” really means. Joining Helen are Jack Meaning, Chief Economist at Barclays, and Ben Zaranko, IFS, to discuss the state of the bond market, the lessons from the Liz Truss era, and what investors will be watching for in the 2025 Budget.

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How could the Chancellor raise more tax?

Thu, 06 Nov 2025 15:45:00 GMT

As the Chancellor prepares for her next Budget, attention is turning to how more tax revenue could be raised. What options are on the table - and what would they mean for households, businesses and the wider economy?

Helen Miller is joined by IFS colleague Stuart Adam and tax expert Dan Neidle to explore the choices facing the Treasury. They discuss options from income tax and frozen thresholds to landlords, partnerships, pensions, and property taxes, asking which levers make sense and which should be left well alone.

Recorded live as part of the ESRC Festival of Social Science.

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How to fix VAT

Tue, 04 Nov 2025 16:13:19 GMT

Why are chocolate-covered shortbread and plain shortbread taxed differently? The UK’s VAT system is full of bizarre inconsistencies that make it complex, inefficient, and unfair.

In this episode, we dive into how VAT works, why economists tend to love it in theory, and why the UK’s version falls short in practice. We explore zero and reduced rates, exemptions, myths about regressivity, and discuss how simplifying VAT could make it fairer and less distortionary.

In the fourth and final episode of our tax mini-series, Helen, Ben and Stuart look at how to fix one of the UK’s most important and misunderstood taxes.

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How to fix property taxes

Thu, 30 Oct 2025 14:57:53 GMT

From council tax and stamp duty to business rates and taxes on landlords, the UK’s system for taxing property is complicated, inconsistent, and long overdue for reform.

Homes aren’t just places to live - they’re also assets and a major form of saving - which makes deciding how to tax them especially tricky.

In this episode, Helen is joined by Stuart Adam and Ben Zaranko to explore how property is currently taxed, what’s gone wrong, and how it could be made fairer and more efficient.

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How to fix wealth taxes

Mon, 27 Oct 2025 16:41:35 GMT

In the second episode of our mini-series on how to fix the UK’s tax system, Helen is joined by Stuart Adam and Ben Zaranko to explore one of the most contentious areas of taxation - savings and wealth.

Why do people who earn through investments often pay lower taxes than those earning a salary? Why do business owners and landlords sometimes end up both undertaxed and overtaxed? And could an annual wealth tax ever work in practice?

This episode unpacks how the UK taxes savings, dividends, capital gains and inheritances, revealing the tensions at the heart of our system - and what a fair, efficient approach to taxing wealth might really look like.

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How to fix income tax

Tue, 21 Oct 2025 13:51:02 GMT

In the first episode of our new mini-series on how to fix the UK’s tax system, Helen is joined by Stuart Adam and Ben Zaranko to explore income tax - the cornerstone of government revenue, and one of the most confusing parts of our system.

Why do we have two separate taxes on earnings? Why do odd kinks and cliff edges exist that distort behaviour? And what would a well-designed income tax actually look like?

This episode dives deep into the structure of income tax and National Insurance, revealing how small design flaws create big inefficiencies - and what we can do to fix them.

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The Budget Dilemma: Tax Rises or Spending Cuts?

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 07:56:03 GMT

Rachel Reeves is once again facing tough choices on tax and spending. After promising no further tax rises last autumn, the Chancellor could now see a sizeable downgrade to the borrowing outlook - enough to wipe out the limited ‘headroom’ she built into her fiscal plans last spring. To stick to her ‘iron-clad’ rules, Reeves may now need a sizeable fiscal consolidation through tax rises, spending cuts, or both.

Helen talks to IFS economists Carl Emmerson and Ben Zaranko about why we’re back here again, what’s really driving the UK’s fiscal challenges, and what options the Chancellor has to get the public finances back on track. They discuss whether Reeves can stick to her fiscal rules, what role productivity and growth forecasts play, and how the government could avoid fiscal 'ground hog' day again.

This episode is part of the 2025 Green Budget, our annual report exploring the Chancellor’s options.

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Should Labour scrap the two-child limit?

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 10:07:54 GMT

The two-child limit stops most families on Universal Credit from claiming support for a third or later child — worth about £3,500 a year per child. Introduced in 2017, it’s now at the centre of a political debate, with the Chancellor under pressure to scrap or reform it in the November Budget.

Helen talks to IFS economists Tom Waters and Christine Farquharson about why the policy was introduced, how it’s affected families and child poverty, and what the options are for changing or removing it.

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Should the middle class get benefits?

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 14:50:48 GMT

From child benefit to winter fuel payments, debates over who really deserves support run through the history of the UK’s welfare state.

In this episode of IFS Zooms In, we ask whether benefits should be universal, means-tested or contributory — and why the UK's benefits system has become one of the most means-tested in the developed world.

Helen is joined by Nicholas Timmins (Institute for Government) and Tom Waters (IFS) to explore Beveridge’s original vision, the rise of means-testing and whether ideas like Universal Basic Income could work.

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Why is defence spending rising?

Fri, 26 Sep 2025 13:47:42 GMT

The UK has promised to raise defence spending to levels not seen since the 1980s. That means tens of billions more pounds each year, with big implications for the armed forces, the economy, and the public finances.

In this episode, Helen speaks to Matthew Savill (RUSI) and Max Warner (IFS) about what defence spending actually pays for, how it has changed over time, and what the government’s new commitments could mean for growth and future military capabilities.

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Children and young people: your questions answered | Are the kids OK? #5

Thu, 11 Sep 2025 09:11:43 GMT

This week, we turn the tables and put your questions to the experts.

From childcare and early years, to schools, apprenticeships, and family life — listeners sent in brilliant questions on the challenges facing children and young people today.

Helen Miller is joined by Christine Farquharson and guests Carey Oppenheim, Sam Freedman, Philip Augar, and Anne Longfield to discuss:

- Should mothers be supported to stay at home rather than return to work?

- Has YouTube made teaching harder for schools?

- How can we encourage more firms to offer apprenticeships and sponsorships?

- What are the consequences of declining physical activity and play?

👉 Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to subscribe for more evidence-based discussions from IFS Zooms In.

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What’s happening to families in the UK? | Are the kids OK? #4

Fri, 05 Sep 2025 11:41:40 GMT

Nearly a third of children in the UK live in relative poverty, and rising numbers face material deprivation. The government’s Opportunity Mission pledges that every child should grow up in a safe, loving home and that families should be able to afford the essentials — but how close are we to that goal?

In this episode of IFS Zooms In, Helen Miller is joined by Christine Farquharson (IFS) and Baroness Anne Longfield (Centre for Young Lives; former Children’s Commissioner for England) to explore:

- How family structures are changing and what that means for children

- The impact of child poverty and financial insecurity

- Why children’s social care is under growing pressure

- What early intervention could do to improve outcomes

👉 Don’t forget to subscribe for the final Q+A episode, where we put your questions to the experts.

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Is further education treated as second class? | Are the kids OK? #3

Thu, 28 Aug 2025 14:09:14 GMT

What happens after GCSEs, and how well does England’s education system support young people as they move into adulthood?

The government’s Opportunity Mission sets out to “build skills for opportunity and growth,” aiming to give every young person a pathway that’s right for them. In practice, that means navigating a system divided between academic routes, like A levels and university, and technical or vocational routes, often delivered through further education colleges.

In this episode of IFS Zooms In, Helen Miller is joined by Christine Farquharson (Associate Director, IFS) and Sir Philip Augar (Chair of the government’s 2019 review of post-18 education and funding) to explore the strengths and challenges of post-16 education in England. They discuss GCSE attainment, the divide between higher and further education, funding pressures, and what a skills system fit for the future might look like.

📩 We want your questions for our final Q&A episode! Send them – voice notes welcome – to podcasts@ifs.org.uk.

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Are England's schools working? | Are the kids OK? #2

Thu, 21 Aug 2025 09:11:12 GMT

Are England’s school-aged children thriving – or are too many being left behind?

The government’s Opportunity Mission promises to end the link between a child’s background and their future. But with rising absences, a growing mental health crisis, and a SEND system under strain, how close are we to that goal?

In this episode of IFS Zooms In, Helen Miller is joined by Christine Farquharson (Associate Director, IFS) and Sam Freedman (Institute for Government, Ark Schools) to explore:

What’s driving improvements in average attainment
Why so many children are still struggling to keep up
The challenges in special educational needs and disabilities (SEND)
How COVID has shaped education, attendance, and well-being
What reforms could ensure every child has the chance to succeed

📩 We want your questions for our final Q&A episode! Send them – voice notes welcome – to podcast@ifs.org.uk or comment on the episode.

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Are Britain’s youngest children getting the best start? | Are the kids OK? #1

Thu, 14 Aug 2025 08:00:00 GMT

Are England’s youngest children getting the best possible start? Or are too many beginning school already behind?

One of the government’s five ‘missions’ is to break down barriers to opportunity by tackling inequalities in early childhood. Its ‘Best Start in Life’ strategy aims for 75% of children to reach a ‘good level of development’ by age five - but with only 68% meeting that bar today, how ambitious is that goal, and what will it take to get there?

In this episode of IFS Zooms In, Helen Miller is joined by Christine Farquharson (Associate Director, IFS) and Carey Oppenheim (Nuffield Foundation) to discuss:

Why the early years matter for long-term outcomes
The role of childcare, parenting and home environment
What the evidence says works to close development gaps
How government policy can (and can’t) deliver change

📩 We want your questions for our final Q&A episode! Send them – voice notes welcome – to podcasts@ifs.org.uk or comment on the episode.

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What are the big threats to public finances?

Thu, 24 Jul 2025 14:08:10 GMT

Is the UK heading for a fiscal crisis? Or can policymakers still steer the public finances back to a sustainable path?

The Office for Budget Responsibility’s latest Fiscal Risks and Sustainability report warns that, without action, UK government debt could climb above 270% of GDP by the 2070s - driven by rising borrowing, an ageing population, and the fiscal impacts of climate change.

In this episode of IFS Zooms In, Helen Miller (Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies) is joined by Richard Hughes (Chair, OBR) and Ben Zaranko (Associate Director, IFS) to explore the forces shaping the long-term outlook for the public finances, the 50 risks highlighted by the OBR, and what can be done now to avoid a crisis later.

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One year of Labour government: Is mission-driven politics really happening?

Fri, 18 Jul 2025 05:16:06 GMT

Has Keir Starmer’s Labour government really brought in a “new way of doing government”? Or are its five missions more rhetoric than reality?

To mark the one-year anniversary of Labour’s 2024 general election victory, the Institute for Fiscal Studies and the Institute for Government held a joint event exploring the government’s approach to governing – and whether its decisions, trade-offs and spending priorities reflect a genuinely mission-driven approach.

In this episode of IFS Zooms In, we bring you the recording of that event, hosted by Hannah White (Director, Institute for Government), with panelists Helen Miller (Director, Institute for Fiscal Studies), Stephen Bush (Columnist, Financial Times) and Gemma Tetlow (Chief Economist, Institute for Government).

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Paul Johnson’s final episode: big challenges ahead for the UK economy

Wed, 09 Jul 2025 12:55:37 GMT

Today, we’re zooming out to ask: what are the biggest economic challenges facing the UK in the years ahead?

As Paul Johnson hosts his final episode before stepping down as IFS director, he’s joined by incoming director Helen Miller to reflect on the country’s fiscal outlook, the importance of economic growth, and the pressures of an ageing population.

With rising demands on public services, debates over tax policy, and uncertainty around fiscal rules, how should policymakers navigate the road ahead? What choices will the government face to deliver sustainable growth?

Paul and Helen discuss these big-picture questions - and what the coming years might hold.

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How to fix UK pensions?

Fri, 04 Jul 2025 10:36:01 GMT

Today, we’re asking whether people in the UK will be able to afford a decent standard of living in retirement.

While the foundations of the system—like the state pension and automatic enrolment—are strong, there are growing concerns. Rising state pension ages, the unpredictability of the ‘triple lock’, low private saving rates, and the complexity of managing pension wealth in later life all pose challenges for future retirees.

So, what changes are needed to improve outcomes? What’s the right balance between state support and private saving? And how can pensions be made easier to navigate?

Paul Johnson is joined by IFS Deputy Director Carl Emmerson and Senior Research Economist Laurence O’Brien to discuss the findings of the IFS pensions review.

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The policy that changed childhood in the UK

Thu, 26 Jun 2025 14:59:07 GMT

Today, we’re looking back at one of the most ambitious policies ever introduced for young children in England – Sure Start.

Launched by the Labour government in 1999, Sure Start aimed to give every child the best start in life by bringing together early education, childcare, health services, and parental support under one roof. At its peak, more than 3,000 centres were operating across the country. But since 2010, the programme has been scaled back, with funding cut by around two-thirds.

So, what difference did Sure Start really make? How was it implemented? And why does it still shape today’s debates around early years services?

Paul Johnson is joined by IFS Associate Director Christine Farquharson and former Education Secretary Ed Balls to explore the legacy and lessons of Sure Start.

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What’s gone wrong in the Crown Courts?

Thu, 19 Jun 2025 09:46:03 GMT

Delays in the Crown Court are at record highs, despite more funding and longer court hours. So what’s really causing the growing backlog of serious criminal cases in England and Wales?

In this episode, Paul Johnson is joined by Ben Zaranko (IFS) and Cassia Rowland (Institute for Government) to explore why court productivity may have slowed, what the consequences are for victims and defendants, and whether more money alone can fix the problem.

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Spending Review 2025: What it means and why it matters

Thu, 12 Jun 2025 14:35:44 GMT

In this episode, we unpack the government's 2025 Spending Review with analysis from experts at the IFS.

Paul is joined by Helen Miller and Ben Zaranko to discuss what the Chancellor’s plans mean for public services, government investment, and the broader economic outlook.

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Trade Wars: The end of globalisation?

Wed, 04 Jun 2025 14:01:35 GMT

Rising tariffs, deepening tensions between the US and China, and a growing wave of protectionism—are we witnessing the unravelling of globalisation as we know it?

In this episode of IFS Zooms In, Paul is joined by Professor Meredith Crowley (University of Cambridge) to explore the shifting landscape of global trade. Together, they unpack why trade barriers are rising, how trade wars are reshaping international relationships, and what this means for the UK and the global economy.

This episode builds on Meredith’s 2025 IFS Annual Lecture. You can watch the full talk here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPIATYktrRM&t=1s

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Why is the government reforming health-related benefits?

Wed, 14 May 2025 10:40:51 GMT

It's been two months since the government first announced its plans to enact the largest welfare reforms for a generation, aiming 'to help sick and disabled people who can and have the potential to work into jobs’. Since then, there has been considerable debate about the consequences of these reforms.

But why does the government want to implement reforms in the first place? How does the current system work? And what could the impact be for those receiving these benefits?

In this episode, Helen is joined by Tom Waters, Associate Director at IFS, and David Finch, Assistant Director at the Health Foundation, to unpack the government’s proposals and explore what they mean for the future of health-related benefits.

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What's the future of corporation tax?

Thu, 10 Apr 2025 09:35:29 GMT

This week, we’re looking at corporation tax, which was introduced 60 years ago. Across the decades there have been no shortage of predictions that corporate tax revenues will decline, and yet the tax is forecast to raise record amounts in the coming years.

To pick all of this apart, and to see how Donald Trump and tariffs play into the story, IFS Director Paul Johnson is joined by Amanda Tickel, Head of Tax & Trade Policy for Deloitte UK and Helen Miller, who is Deputy Director at The IFS and leads on our tax work.

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Spring Statement 2025

Thu, 27 Mar 2025 16:18:14 GMT

This week, we look at the Spring Statement. What were the decisions and trade-offs made by Chancellor Reeves? To pick this apart, IFS Director Paul Johnson is joined by IFS Associate Directors Ben Zaranko and Tom Waters.

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The Schools Bill

Tue, 11 Mar 2025 07:00:00 GMT

This week, we’re looking at The Schools Bill. The bill, which has the full title of The Children’s Wellbeing and Schools Bill 2024-25, covers children’s social care and education.

The aim of the bill, as stated on the House of Commons Library website, is to “improve the safeguarding of children and to raise educational standards”. We’re going to be focusing on the schools components.

To look at this, IFS Director Paul Johnson is joined by Laura McInerney and Luke Sibieta.

Laura was the founding editor of Schools Week and now co-runs Teacher Tapp, a regular online survey of teachers. Luke is a Research Fellow at The IFS specialising in Education.

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Family values: inheritance, inequality and social mobility

Mon, 03 Mar 2025 15:20:41 GMT

As baby boomers hold an increasing share of wealth, younger generations are finding it harder to build financial security, often relying on family support for major milestones like homeownership.

In her book Inheritocracy, Eliza Filby argues that – because of this – baby boomers have been good parents but not always great citizens.

To explore the issue, IFS Director Paul Johnson is joined by Eliza and David Sturrock, a Senior Research Economist at the IFS.

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How important is the OBR forecast?

Wed, 12 Feb 2025 09:23:13 GMT

As the OBR comes up with its forecast, which will underpin the Chancellor’s decisions at the Spring Forecast, one of the concerns may be that it tells her that she is not meeting her fiscal targets. That will require some action.

Helping Paul explore this are Andy King and Gerard Lyons. Andy previously worked at the OBR and is now a Specialist Partner at Flint Global. Gerard has spent over thirty years in senior roles in the City and in public policy. He is currently Chief Economic Strategist at Netwealth.

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Do tariffs work?

Thu, 23 Jan 2025 15:05:13 GMT

This week, President Trump was inaugurated for his second term and announced plans to impose significant tariffs on imports. But what exactly are tariffs, and how do they work?

In this episode, we dive into the economic consequences of tariffs, why governments use them, and whether they actually achieve their intended goals.

Joining Paul to unpack these questions is Peter Levell, Deputy Research Director at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) and an expert on trade economics.

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How is tax damaging the housing market?

Wed, 18 Dec 2024 10:08:22 GMT

The UK’s housing market has long been a source of frustration for renters and homeowners alike, with issues of affordability and availability topping the agenda. The new government has identified housing market failures as a major barrier to economic growth—but what role does the tax system play in these challenges?

In this episode, we’ll dig into how taxes impact the housing market, from the cost of buying and renting to the incentives—or disincentives—they create for landlords, developers, and homeowners. We’ll explore everything from capital gains tax to stamp duty surcharges and council tax policies. Are these tax measures helping or hindering progress? And if reform is needed, where should policymakers begin?

To help answer those questions, Paul is joined by Stuart Adam, Senior Economist at IFS and Tim Leunig, economist at the London School of Economics and former Economic Advisor to Sajid Javid and Rishi Sunak.

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Why did the French budget fail to pass?

Thu, 12 Dec 2024 12:22:44 GMT

Today, we’re turning our attention to France, where a recent Budget has sparked intense debate and raised major questions about the country’s economic future.

France is tackling some big economic challenges: rising public debt, slow growth, and the need for major reforms in areas like pensions and energy. In this episode, we’ll explore what was in the budget, why it caused such a stir, and how it compares to the recent UK budget.

To help us make sense of it all, we're thrilled to welcome Dr. Antoine Bozio, Director of the Institut des Politiques Publiques in Paris.

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How can we make government more productive?

Tue, 03 Dec 2024 11:34:39 GMT

From healthcare to education to local government, the public sector delivers essential services—but how can it stay effective and efficient with tightening budgets and rising demand?

In this episode, we examine the UK government’s push to improve public sector productivity. Rachel Reeves is enlisting private sector leaders to tackle inefficiencies in Whitehall, while Wes Streeting has proposed NHS reforms to boost output. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, President-elect Trump has stirred debate by appointing Elon Musk to a new ‘Department of Government Efficiency’ to slash costs.

Are public services keeping pace with private sector innovations? What’s driving productivity trends in the UK? And how can policies create better outcomes for everyone?

We’re joined by Ben Zaranko, Associate Director at IFS, and Sam Freedman, a senior fellow at the Institute for Government and former senior policy adviser to Michael Gove, to unpack these questions and more.

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Inheritance tax rises and the Budget: who's affected?

Fri, 15 Nov 2024 09:19:03 GMT

In the recent budget, the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, announced a £40 billion tax increase, pushing tax as a share of national income to an all time UK high.

Just 6% of that came from an increase in inheritance tax, and just a small fraction of that will come from farmers. And yet it is the tax increase on farmers that has dominated the news headlines. But beyond the change to agricultural reliefs, there were some other big reforms as well - to pensions and business reliefs.

So to discuss how inheritance tax actually changed in the budget, who will be affected and whether it was a good idea, Paul is joined by Helen Miller and David Sturrock, colleagues at the IFS.

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How big are the UK's demographic challenges?

Fri, 08 Nov 2024 15:11:23 GMT

At the end of October, the ONS announced that the fertility rate in England and Wales had fallen to 1.44 births per woman in 2023 - the lowest figure since records began in 1938.

What will this mean for the population make-up of the country? What other big demographic shifts are occurring? Why is this trend occurring across the developed world? And what will its implications be for the public finances?

To discuss those questions, Paul is joined by Melinda Mills, Director of the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science and Nuffield Professor of Demography at Oxford. And by Carl Emmerson, Deputy Director at IFS and one of the leading experts on the UK's public finances.

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What does the Budget mean for the UK?

Thu, 31 Oct 2024 16:20:33 GMT

117 days after Labour took office, Rachel Reeves has finally delivered her Budget.

From tax rises and fiscal rules, to public services and investment, we'll take a tour around all of the big announcements.

Paul is joined by Helen Miller and Ben Zaranko, colleagues at the IFS.

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LIVE: How can Rachel Reeves make her first Budget a success?

Thu, 24 Oct 2024 14:09:12 GMT

In our first ever live episode, we're going to look at how Rachel Reeves can make her first Budget a success.

It will have been 117 days since Labour took power before we finally hear what is in the Budget - in that time we’ve heard about £22bn 'black holes' and the difficult economic situation the UK faces. We’re going to think a bit about some of the challenges facing the Chancellor, what she can learn from previous Budgets and how she can navigate these complexities.

Paul is joined by colleague Helen Miller, Deputy Director at IFS, Lord Stewart Wood, a Labour peer and former member under Tony Blair’s government of the Chancellor of the Exchequer's Council of Economic Advisers, and Stephen Bush, associate editor and columnist at the Financial Times.

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What options does Rachel Reeves have for the Budget?

Wed, 16 Oct 2024 13:20:21 GMT

The budget coming up in a few weeks will be one of the big moments for Labour to set out their policy agenda.

Over the summer, the government set out what it considers a difficult public finance picture - including a supposed £22bn ‘black hole’. The Labour manifesto promised big improvements to public services, and the prime minister has since promised no return to austerity. Meanwhile, the chancellor has promised that the upcoming Budget will be a ‘Budget for investment’. And there’s those promises to get debt falling, and not to raise the main rates of income tax or corporation tax, or to raise national insurance or VAT at all.

So how could they meet their fiscal targets while also fixing public services and increasing investment? What is the public finance picture looking like? And will there be enough resource to tackle some of the challenges facing the UK economy?

To explore these questions, Paul is joined by Carl Emmerson and Ben Zaranko.

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Should the Chancellor raise capital gains tax?

Wed, 09 Oct 2024 08:38:16 GMT

There’s been lots of speculation that Chancellor Rachel Reeves is looking to raise Capital Gains tax in her upcoming budget.

Capital Gains tax raises around £15 billion a year, which is less than 2% of total tax revenue, and it’s paid by less than 1% of the adult population. But it’s important for both the fairness and efficiency of the tax system.

In this episode, we’ll explore why CGT reform is necessary and how changes could make the tax system fairer, more efficient, and better aligned with long-term economic growth. We’ll also ask what Rachel Reeves would need to do if she wants to raise significant additional revenue from taxing capital gains.

To explore that, Paul is joined by IFS Deputy Director, Helen Miller and Dan Neidle, a tax lawyer and founder of Tax Policy Associates.

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How can government reduce child poverty?

Thu, 03 Oct 2024 13:45:48 GMT

Currently, around 4.3 million children - that’s around 30% of all kids - are living in relative poverty. Since 2010 that figure has risen by over 700,000 and the new government has made tackling child poverty one of its key policy objectives, with a cross-government strategy due to be published in 2025.

In today’s episode, we’ll explore the factors contributing to this increase in child poverty, including changes to the benefits system, housing challenges, and the broader economic context. We’ll look at the long-run impacts that child poverty has and examine the potential policy options available to reduce child poverty.

To do that, Carl is joined by Tom Waters and Christine Farquharson.

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Are people saving enough into their pensions?

Fri, 20 Sep 2024 09:55:18 GMT

Since the introduction of auto-enrolment over 10 years ago, more people than ever are saving into a workplace pension than ever before. However, new research from the IFS shows that approximately 30% to 40% of private sector employees (5 to 7 million people) saving in defined contribution pension schemes are on course to have individual incomes that fall short of standard benchmarks in retirement.

What changes should government make to the auto-enrolment policy? How much do people need to save? What about self-employed people?

To answer these questions, Paul is joined by Jonathan Cribb and Carl Emmerson from the IFS.

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The big challenges facing the benefits system

Tue, 10 Sep 2024 10:40:05 GMT

We’re looking at the benefits system and answering the questions likely being asked by government ministers: how can the rising costs of benefits be managed, and what changes could improve the system?

With disability and incapacity benefit caseloads rising and the Universal Credit rollout still ongoing, what options does the government have to address these challenges? How might frozen housing support and past cuts to working-age benefits be impacting the most vulnerable? Should the government abolish the two-child limit?

To tackle these questions, Paul is joined by Tom Waters and Carl Emmerson from the IFS.

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The Chancellor's options for raising taxes

Wed, 28 Aug 2024 11:00:12 GMT

Over the summer we’re bringing you a series of briefings on the key challenges and policy options facing the new set of government ministers. Today we’re turning to the tax system and we’ll answer the questions that the Chancellor has almost certainly been asking Treasury officials in recent weeks: how could more tax revenue be raised and how could tax reform boost growth.

Rachel Reeves has ruled out tax rises on 'working people', saying that there will be no increase of income tax, VAT, National Insurance or Corporation Tax. What areas of tax does this leave to fill the shortfall in the public finances? Which taxes could be reformed to boost growth?

To tackle those questions, Paul is joined by Dan Neidle a tax lawyer and founder of Tax Policy Associates and Helen Miller, Deputy Director at the IFS.

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Why are universities in financial trouble?

Wed, 21 Aug 2024 11:00:50 GMT

Over the coming weeks, we’re bringing you a series of briefings looking at key areas of government and analysing their performance over recent years, the challenges they face and the solutions the new government may look to help them.

This week, we’ll be looking at higher and further education.

Over recent months, we’ve heard lots of stories about the pressures on university finances, and concern that some universities may go bust. We’ll discuss why this is, what happens if a university goes bust and whether government can do anything to fix the problem. We’ll also discuss longer-term challenges facing the higher and further education sectors.

We're joined by Jack Britton and Christine Farquharson, IFS education experts.

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Can the new government fix the NHS?

Wed, 14 Aug 2024 09:45:16 GMT

Over the next few weeks, we’re bringing you a series of briefings looking at key areas of government and analysing how they have performed over recent years, what challenges they face and which solutions are on the table.

This week we'll start with the NHS - the UK's biggest public service.

We're joined by Ben Zaranko and Max Warner, IFS experts, to discuss the big challenges facing the NHS, and what Labour will do about them.

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Is Labour's inheritance really worse than expected?

Tue, 30 Jul 2024 14:39:59 GMT

On Monday, the new Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, stood up in front of Parliament and spoke about, what was in her view, the challenging economic inheritance left to Labour by the previous Conservative government.

She revealed a series of unfunded commitments by the previous government - a multibillion-pound gap in the public finances covering areas such as spending on asylum seekers and unfunded infrastructure projects.

So, what do we make of the announcements? What are the implications of the spending cuts announced? What does this statement tell us about how the Chancellor will handle economic challenges?

To answer these questions, we’re joined by Christine Farquharson and Ben Zaranko.

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What is Labour's economic strategy?

Mon, 22 Jul 2024 13:56:43 GMT

In the King's Speech last week, Labour announced 40 new bills covering areas from planning and green energy, to fiscal locks and a national wealth fund.

What can these bills tell us about Labour's economic strategy?

We speak with IFS economists, Christine Farquharson and Ben Zaranko.

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ELECTION SPECIAL: Your questions answered

Thu, 27 Jun 2024 15:32:38 GMT

In the final run up to the election, we answer your questions about everything from borrowing to growth and from AI to the part that luck plays in the economy.

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ELECTION SPECIAL: The big issues politicians haven't spoken about

Tue, 25 Jun 2024 12:31:22 GMT

On Monday, we released our comprehensive analysis of the parties manifestos at an event in Westminster.

After some time digesting and analysing the manifestos, we’ve concluded that neither of the main parties is being honest with voters about the challenges we face in coming years.

So, what are the manifestos missing? What are the big challenges facing us? And what information should voters be aware of as they head to the polls?

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ELECTION SPECIAL: Has 'levelling up' worked?

Fri, 21 Jun 2024 11:20:44 GMT

We discuss 'levelling up' and local government and see how much progress has been made. We also analyse the SNP and Plaid Cymru manifestos.

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ELECTION SPECIAL: The Reform UK and Green Party manifestos explained

Tue, 18 Jun 2024 11:00:26 GMT

We discuss the Reform UK and Green Party manifestos and give our reaction to the policies and pledges within them.

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ELECTION SPECIAL: The Labour manifesto explained

Fri, 14 Jun 2024 12:18:52 GMT

We discuss the Labour manifesto launched on Thursday and give our reaction to the policies and pledges within it.

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ELECTION SPECIAL: The Conservative manifesto explained

Wed, 12 Jun 2024 11:48:15 GMT

We discuss the Conservative manifesto launched on Tuesday and give our reaction to the policies and pledges within it.

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ELECTION SPECIAL: The government's record on tax

Mon, 10 Jun 2024 15:07:41 GMT

It’s manifesto week, and we’ll be coming to you with plenty of analysis of the promises, pledges and numbers. In this episode, we’ll dive into some work looking at the how the size and shape of the state have changed over recent decades, and how the tax system has changed since 2010. We'll also give our reaction to the Liberal Democrat manifesto.

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ELECTION SPECIAL: The 'conspiracy of silence' on the economy

Thu, 06 Jun 2024 15:04:39 GMT

The last few days have seen plenty of competing claims about tax rises, but very little discussion of the very tight fiscal situation facing the next government. What problems will they face? Can growth ride to the rescue?

Also in this episode, we explore what's happened to the education system, from funding and teacher pay, to falling pupil numbers and the impact of COVID.

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ELECTION SPECIAL: The UK economy since 2008

Mon, 03 Jun 2024 13:21:43 GMT

Since 2008, the UK economy has faced a series of shocks and challenges, leaving the next government with a difficult task. From low growth to falling living standards, we ask what structural problems the next government faces.

We also tackle announcements on limiting tax rises, apprenticeships and the NHS waiting list.

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ELECTION SPECIAL: What you need to know

Tue, 28 May 2024 14:08:54 GMT

In our first election special, we look at the broad economic picture and analyse announcements about the fiscal rules, the triple lock and tax.

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How to grow the economy

Fri, 24 May 2024 11:38:08 GMT

After years of sluggish growth and flatlining productivity, a rare political consensus has emerged that growing the economy is one of the key priorities of the next government.

With an election on the way, we're bound to hear pledges and policies on how to get the economy growing again.

But how can we actually grow the economy? Can we get productivity growth back on track? And in what sectors can the UK lead?To help answer these questions, we’re joined by Anna Valero, Policy Fellow and Director of the Growth Programme at the Centre for Economic Performance at the LSE.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/

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The £600 billion problem awaiting the next government

Thu, 25 Apr 2024 08:43:56 GMT

Today, we’re setting the stage for a key moment in UK politics — the upcoming spending review, expected this November. The spending review will set some £600 billion of departmental budgets from April 2025 onwards, and will be a crucial moment for the next government to lay out its priorities and plans for public services.

How should the incoming government go about doing the next spending review? How can the government make sure they deliver on their priorities? And will they be constrained by the much talked about ‘treasury orthodoxy’?

To help us answer these questions, we're joined by two people who have been at the heart of government - David Gauke, a lawyer and former MP who served in the Treasury under David Cameron and Theresa May’s governments and Giles Wilkes, a senior fellow at the Institute for Government and former special adviser to Theresa May and Vince Cable.

Try our tool: https://ifs.org.uk/election-2024/be-chancellor

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Should we worry about government debt?

Thu, 11 Apr 2024 14:46:28 GMT

We often hear about government debt in the headlines. Currently the UK government owes around £2.65 trillion, nearly 100% of UK GDP - the value of all the goods and services produced in the UK in a year.

How has the debt level grown? Should we aspire to reduce the debt? And do we need to worry about high debt to GDP ratios?

Joining us today to answer all these questions and more, is David Miles, Professor of Financial Economics at Imperial College Business School, a member of the OBR Budget Responsibility Committee and former member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/

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Spring Budget 2024: What you need to know

Thu, 07 Mar 2024 17:29:13 GMT

In his Spring Budget, the Chancellor announced a 2% cut to National Insurance, amidst other measures on tax and spending.

What will the impact of the measures be? How will it affect living standards? And what choices face the next Parliament?

Joining us today are Helen Miller, Deputy Director at IFS and Ben Zaranko, Senior Research Economist at IFS.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/

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The NHS waiting list: when will it come down?

Thu, 29 Feb 2024 13:49:48 GMT

Since the pandemic, the size the NHS waiting list has been in the headlines almost constantly. At the start of 2023, Rishi Sunak committed to decreasing the size of the waiting list as one of his ‘five priorities’, and since then it has actually gone up.

So today, we’re going to dive into the NHS waiting list - what is it? How big is it? And is there a credible plan to get it back down?

Joining us to answer those questions are Ben Zaranko and Max Warner, IFS economists who have recently published a report on the NHS waiting list.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/

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Are councils in crisis?

Wed, 14 Feb 2024 16:12:55 GMT

Over recent months, you may have seen local authorities warning that they are facing a funding crisis. Since 2021, six local authorities have declared themselves effectively bankrupt, and many other local authorities have reported that they may soon be forced to do the same.

How did we end up here? Why are local councils facing funding pressures? And what can government do to help them?

Joining us to answer these questions are Tony Travers, a professor in the Department of Government at LSE and expert on local government, and David Phillips, Head of Devolved and Local Government Finance at IFS.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/

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How to fix our irrational income tax system

Thu, 25 Jan 2024 14:20:37 GMT

Income tax and National Insurance Contributions are our biggest taxes. Together they raise almost half of all tax revenues.

National Insurance Contributions were cut at the start of the year, but we’re in the middle of a multi-year freeze in tax thresholds that will amount to a tax rise of over £40 billion by the time it’s finished. And these are just the latest in a string of changes in how we tax personal incomes.

From cliff edges and personal allowances, to Scotland's 6-band income tax system and The Beatles' scheme to minimise their tax, we cover all things income tax.

To do that, we're joined by Helen Miller, Deputy Director at IFS and head of our tax sector, and Dan Neidle, a tax lawyer and founder of Tax Policy Associates.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/

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The economic stories that will shape 2024

Fri, 05 Jan 2024 10:39:49 GMT

As we enter the new year, we take a look-ahead at what to expect in 2024.

What will happen with the cost of living crisis? What might the Chancellor announce in his Spring Budget? What should we be looking out for during an election?

This week, Paul is joined by colleagues Ben Zaranko, Helen Miller and Carl Emmerson to take a look at the stories which will define 2024.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/

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The future of the state pension

Thu, 21 Dec 2023 08:57:49 GMT

With an ageing population, the UK faces a series of significant challenges with regard to its state pension. The OBR estimates that spending on the state pension, pension credit and winter fuel payment is expected to rise by 1.2% of national income (£32 billion per year in today’s terms) by 2050.

How does the state pension work? What are the problems with it? And how can we reform it to work more effectively?

In our final episode of the year, Paul is joined by Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director at IFS and Head of the Retirement, Savings, and Ageing sector, and Baroness Ros Altmann, a life peer, pensions expert and former Pensions Minister.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/

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Why we need to reform inheritance tax

Wed, 06 Dec 2023 12:33:10 GMT

Inheritance tax is arguably the UK’s most unpopular tax - a recent YouGov poll found that just 20% of people deemed inheritance tax ‘fair’. Yet most people are unaffected by it - only a minority of estates currently pay inheritance tax.

In this episode, Paul Johnson is joined by Arun Advani and David Sturrock to discuss the intricacies of inheritance tax. They cover the inequality inherent in the current system, the distortion of economic incentives resulting from exemptions, the small percentage of estates that actually pay the tax, and how it affects to social mobility.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/

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The Autumn Statement explained

Fri, 24 Nov 2023 07:41:39 GMT

This week, the Chancellor delivered his Autumn Statement. After weeks of speculation about headroom, tax cuts and pre-election giveaways, the dye is cast and the policies are in.

What was in it? What will the impact of his announcements be? And how sensible were the policies announced?

Joining us today are Helen Miller, Head of Tax at IFS, Ben Zaranko, Senior Research economist and Tom Waters, Senior Research economist at IFS.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/

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Cake or biscuit? The UK's byzantine VAT system explained

Thu, 16 Nov 2023 14:50:49 GMT

From jaffa cakes and gingerbread men, to fur skin coats and children's clothes, our VAT system and its byzantine rules seem, on the surface, to be a fun quirk of the UK tax system.But dig deeper, and one finds economic distortions and inefficiencies due to the complex way the UK's third largest tax is levied.Leading us through this maze of complexity are Helen Miller, Deputy Director and IFS tax expert, and Dan Neidle, a tax lawyer and founder of Tax Policy Associates.

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The Expert Factor: What next for Net Zero?

Mon, 06 Nov 2023 12:12:15 GMT

Climate change used to be that rarest of things in British politics – an issue over which there was broad interparty consensus. That consensus saw Ed Miliband oversee the passing of the Climate Change Act in 2008, committing the UK to an 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050; Theresa May enshrining of the target of net zero in law; and Boris Johnson going further still, increasing the target for 2030 reductions to 68%.

But recently we have seen a divergence from this consensus, with Rishi Sunak pushing back the ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars in the UK from 2030 to 2035.

In this episode, the Experts team drill down into this changing landscape. What do voters think about Sunak’s changes? How is Labour going to respond? What are the key steps to achieving net zero? And what are the economic costs involved?

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The Expert Factor: What can be done to fix standards in public life?

Mon, 30 Oct 2023 14:25:32 GMT

Do you remember when politics was the domain of good chaps and a time when politicians could be trusted to stick to the rules? Ok, so maybe there was never quite such a rose-tinted age – but from lobbying scandals to accusations of minsters bullying their staff, standards in politics seem to have been slipping in recent years.

So this week the Expert Factor team take a deep dive into standards and ethics in public life – and how they are meant to be uphold. Why have standards been on the slide? Have the good chaps left the political scene for good? What could Rishi Sunak or Keir Starmer do to fix the problem? And do the voters really care?

A general election is looming. Manifestos are being drafted. The battle of ideas is intensifying. From tackling climate change to turning around the economy, rethinking Britain’s place in the world to restoring trust in politics, the UK is facing huge challenges. So how can we make sense of it all?

THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven’t had enough of experts. Each week the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come.

Produced by Milo Hynes and Podmasters.

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The Expert Factor: Why is the UK so bad at infrastructure?

Fri, 27 Oct 2023 13:08:18 GMT

From HS2 cancellations to Heathrow’s still unbuilt third runway, the over-budget Elizabeth line to the repeated delays to the Hinkley C nuclear reactor, why is the UK so bad at infrastructure projects?

This week the Expert Factor team – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – take a deep dive into what goes wrong when the UK wants to build big things. How did the costs for HS2 get so high? Is there the right level of government expertise to see through big infrastructure projects? Does the UK have a bigger NIMBY problem than other countries? And what could be done to learn from past mistakes?

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The Expert Factor: Is there any money left?

Fri, 20 Oct 2023 08:22:46 GMT

Rising inflation, a cost of living crisis, striking public sector workers, the NHS facing another winter crisis… costs on the public purse are spiralling and government borrowing is being pushed still higher.

So is it true to say there is no more money left?

This week the Expert Factor team take a deep dive into the state of Britain’s public finances. What would it mean if we stick to current tax and spend policies? What choices are facing this country’s politicians and its public services? What does the country expect its governments to deliver – and how does it expect it to be paid for? And what did we learn from the Labour and Conservative conferences about the two parties’ plans for the economy?

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The economic picture facing the Chancellor

Wed, 18 Oct 2023 09:00:14 GMT

On the 22nd November, the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt will give his Autumn Statement. He will update MPs on the country's finances and the government's plans for tax and public spending, based on the latest forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

In this episode, we speak to Carl Emmerson, Deputy Director at IFS and Ben Nabarro, Chief UK Economist at Citigroup, about the underlying economic situation facing the Chancellor.

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An honest conversation about net zero

Wed, 11 Oct 2023 15:14:59 GMT

Recently, Rishi Sunak announced significant changes to the UK's net zero pathway. A ban on the sale of combustion engines has been pushed back to 2035, instead of a 100% phase out of gas boilers by 2035, this has been changed to 80%, and he’s scrapped energy efficiency targets for homes.

What is the impact of the announcement? Who will it affect? How will it alter the UK's path to net zero?

Joining us today is Chris Stark, Chief Executive of the Climate Change Committee, an independent, statutory body which advises the government on climate change.

Paul was until this year also a member of the CCC.

Find out more: www.ifs.org.uk/podcast

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The Expert Factor: What is Britain’s place in the world?

Mon, 09 Oct 2023 11:03:57 GMT

Some politicians are keen to talk up global Britain. Others boast that the UK is world leader in, well, just about everything. But some say this is a country in non-stop decline. So what’s the true story?

This week the Expert Factor team take a deep dive into Britain’s place in the world. How do other countries view the UK after a tumultuous time in Westminster? What is the state of the UK’s post-pandemic economy compared to other countries? Just how special is the ‘special’ relationship with the US? And what is the true story about what Brexit has meant for the UK? Hannah White, Paul Johnson and Anand Menon ask the tricky questions – and come up with the expert answers.

THE EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven’t had enough of experts. Each week we the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come.

• Institute Fiscal Studies: https://ifs.org.uk/

• Institute for Government: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/

• UK in a Changing Europe: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/

Written and presented by Paul Johnson, Hannah White and Anand Menon. Audio production by Alex Rees for Podmasters.

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The Expert Factor: What is the Point of Party Conferences?

Fri, 29 Sep 2023 12:34:44 GMT

Subscribe to The Expert Factor feed: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-expert-factor/id1709487231

The EXPERT FACTOR is the podcast for people who haven’t had enough of experts. Each week we the directors of three leading and respected think tanks – Paul Johnson of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Hannah White of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon of UK in a Changing Europe – get together to discuss, debate and explain the big questions and themes that will shape the election – and the political landscape for years to come.

This week the team look ahead to the party conference season. What are the pressing questions that Keir Starmer needs to answer? How much pressure will Rishi Sunak be under? And what difference do these get-togethers really make?

• Institute Fiscal Studies: https://ifs.org.uk/

• Institute for Government: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/

• UK in a Changing Europe: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/

Written and presented by Paul Johnson, Hannah White and Anand Menon. Audio production by Alex Rees for Podmasters.

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The materials that shape our economy

Wed, 13 Sep 2023 10:01:58 GMT

From silicon chips to fertiliser, the last few years have shown us that where our materials come from matters massively to the stability of our economy.

How we get stuff out of the ground, processed and into complex global supply chains is a vital and oft-overlooked part of our economy - with ramifications for government policy across all sectors.

In this episode, we speak with Ed Conway, Economics Editor at Sky News and author of a new book Material World: The Making of Civilisation.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/

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Big firm, little firm: are differences between companies driving inequality and holding back growth?

Wed, 30 Aug 2023 14:12:06 GMT

Debates about inequality often focus on inequalities between people. But what about inequalities between firms?

Recent decades have seen the emergence of giant, multinational firms - the FAANGs of this world. But over 40% of registered businesses in the UK have less than 10 employees.

What do we mean when we talk about inequality between firms? Are inequalities between firms limiting UK business dynamism? And do governments need to step in and enforce competition rules?

Joining us this episode are John Van Reenan, Ronald Coase Chair in Economics and School Professor at the LSE, and Amelia Fletcher, Professor of Competition Policy at Norwich Business School.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/inequality/

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Still a man’s world? Gender inequalities, parenthood and the workplace

Wed, 23 Aug 2023 13:56:20 GMT

Over the past decades, women have drawn closer to men in a variety of areas - education, university degrees and workforce participation. But, women still earn less on average than men.

In this episode, we ask why this pay gap opens up, whether things have improved in recent years, and talk about one key factor affecting women’s pay - kids.

Joining us are Alison Andrew, Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Oxford, Christine Farquharson, Senior Research Economist at IFS and Lucinda Platt, Professor of Social Policy and Sociology at the LSE.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/inequality/

Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

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Levelling Up: Is inequality between places Britain’s biggest problem?

Wed, 16 Aug 2023 10:41:39 GMT

Since 2019, we’ve all heard a lot about levelling up. It makes sense that our politics is centered around it - of all types of inequality, the public seems most concerned about the geographical sort.

But do the numbers back this up? How much of Britain’s inequality is generated by differing fortunes in different parts of the country? And what might an effective “levelling up” agenda look like?

In this episode, we speak to Xiaowei Xu, Senior Research Economist at IFS, James Banks, Professor of Economics at Manchester University.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/inequality/

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When and why should we care about inequality?

Wed, 09 Aug 2023 11:44:38 GMT

We see inequalities all the time, whether at the school gates, the hospital, when travelling round the country and definitely when turning on the news.

But why should we care about inequality? What has happened to inequality over recent decades? And can government do anything about it?

We speak to Professor Sir Angus Deaton, an economist who is an expert on inequality and leads the IFS-Deaton Review, Debra Satz, a philosopher and Dean of the School of Humanities and Sciences at Stanford University, and Robert Joyce, Deputy Director at IFS and panel member of the IFS-Deaton Review.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/inequality/

Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

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COMING SOON: IFS Zooms In: Inequality

Thu, 03 Aug 2023 15:35:48 GMT

Inequalities are one of the defining issues of the modern age.

We see inequalities all the time, whether at the school gates, the hospital, when travelling round the country and definitely when turning on the news.

Over the next month on the IFS Zooms In, we are bringing you a mini-series looking at inequality in Britain. We’ll be looking at a range of issues, from what’s happened to inequality over the last several decades and why that might matter, to more specific issues such as the role parenthood plays in opening the gender pay gap, and whether the practices of big tech companies worsen inequality.

We hope you’ll join us, starting next week, as the IFS Zooms In on inequality.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcasts

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HIGHLIGHT: The future of public sector pensions

Thu, 22 Jun 2023 16:19:57 GMT

This week, we're bringing you an episode from the archives, looking at the future of public sector pensions. We'll be back in two weeks with a new episode.

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In an era where those in the private sector have seen their pension provision decrease, pensions in the public sector continue to look generous.

But is this sustainable? Should we change the balance between pay and pensions for those in the public sector? What does the future hold for public sector pensions?

This week, we speak to Lord Hutton of Furness, cabinet minister in the last Labour government and leader of the Independent Public Service Pensions Commission, a review into public sector pensions commissioned by David Cameron, and by Carl Emmerson, IFS Deputy Director and expert on pensions.

Support the IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/donate

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The economics of immigration

Thu, 08 Jun 2023 15:30:31 GMT

Over the past 13 years, successive governments have pledged to bring immigration down, but have failed to do so. Recently, the government announced that net immigration for 2022 was around 600,000.

How many people are migrating and where are they coming from? How has Brexit shifted the dynamics of migration? What is the impact of migration on the wages of native-born workers? And what could government do if it wanted to achieve its target of reducing migration?

In this episode, Paul speaks to Madeleine Sumption, a political scientist who is Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcast

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Work from home: what does the future look like?

Wed, 24 May 2023 10:39:42 GMT

Since the start of the pandemic in March 2020, the topic of working from home has been everywhere and has seemingly affected everything. From big companies calling workers back to the office and city centre food chains struggling, to house price jumps in rural areas and zoom fatigue, the transition to work from home is one of the biggest shifts in working patterns in the last century.

But what evidence do we have on the success of remote working? Are people more or less productive at home? And what does the future hold?

In this episode, Paul speaks to Professor Nick Bloom, a Professor at Stanford University, former IFS-er and leading expert on working from home.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcast

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What's wrong with inflation?

Wed, 10 May 2023 10:00:00 GMT

Over the past year, the UK has seen very high inflation, affecting households and businesses across the country.

But what is actually wrong with inflation? How do we measure it? And what is the way out of it?

We speak to Chris Giles, economics editor at the Financial Times and former IFS economist, and Peter Levell, Associate Director at IFS, both inflation experts.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/pensions-review

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Why politicians need to think long-term about pensions

Wed, 26 Apr 2023 15:51:48 GMT

From declining homeownership rates and low pension saving, to high numbers of self-employed people with no pensions at all, it seems that future generations face steep challenges in retirement.

Recently, IFS launched a new review of the pensions system, supported by the Abdrn Financial Fairness Trust, to look into these issues and seek policy solutions to help politicians navigate these challenges.

Joining us today to talk through the challenges facing the UK pensions system are Heidi Karjalainen, a researcher at IFS, and Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director at IFS, both who are involved in the review.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/pensions-review

Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

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The stealth tax rise

Thu, 06 Apr 2023 07:06:33 GMT

To many, the start of the new tax year in April will seem quiet, more of the same with no big changes to the tax system announced by the government.

But hidden beneath the surface lie a series of stealthy tax rises - freezes to thresholds which coupled with rising inflation are projected to raise around £30 billion for the Treasury over the next few years and hit household finances hard.

Here to reveal the truth are Helen Miller, Head of Tax at IFS, and Tom Waters, Associate Director at IFS.

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The Spring Budget Explained

Thu, 16 Mar 2023 17:07:29 GMT

Chancellor Jeremy Hunt recently outlined his Spring Budget, with big announcements on childcare, corporation tax, pensions and more.

We dive into the detail and bring you our expert analysis on the Budget.

Joining us are Ben Zaranko, public finances expert, Christine Farquharson, childcare expert and Helen Miller, tax expert.

Find out more: www.ifs.org.uk/podcast

Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

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Are high energy prices here to stay?

Wed, 08 Mar 2023 12:51:31 GMT

From price caps and pipelines to price guarantees and LPG, the rising cost of energy has been central to understanding the economy over the past year.

As we come out the cold winter period, we ask whether high energy prices are here to stay?

What is happening with the energy market? Should we expect further price shocks? And can we decarbonise our energy supply while keeping bills affordable?

Joining us are Heidi Karjalainen, Research Economist at IFS, and Giles Wilkes, a senior fellow at the Institute for Government and former special adviser to Theresa May on industrial and economic policy.

Find out more: www.ifs.org.uk/podcast

Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

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How to tax the rich?

Fri, 24 Feb 2023 12:31:27 GMT

From non-doms to offshore investment vehicles - how the rich are taxed, and how they avoid it, has been all over the headlines.

But who are the 1%? How much tax do they pay? And should government tax them more?

Joining us are Helen Miller, Deputy Director at IFS and our Head of Tax, and Dan Neidle, Founder of Tax Policy Associates and a former tax lawyer.

Find out more: www.ifs.org.uk/podcast

Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

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The state of the NHS

Wed, 08 Feb 2023 16:07:57 GMT

With COVID, strikes, staff shortages, an enormous waiting list and an ever-ageing population (amongst other issues), the NHS is coming under greater pressure than ever. In this episode, we take a look at the state of the NHS across a range of areas.

How is the service doing at the moment? Will we see a pay settlement for nurses and other workers? And are there any reasons to hope that better days are ahead?

Joining us are Saffron Cordery, Deputy Chief Executive of NHS Providers, a membership organisation for NHS acute, ambulance, community and mental health services, and Max Warner, IFS researcher and NHS expert.

Find out more: www.ifs.org.uk/podcast

Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

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Pandemics, recessions and mental health: young people and jobs in 2023

Wed, 25 Jan 2023 15:52:32 GMT

Two years ago, in the depths of lockdown, the future for young people looked bleak. Policymakers worried about an unemployment crisis, lost career opportunities and a generation of young people missing out on key milestones.

The reality - at least on the jobs front - is far rosier than many predicted. But is it all good news for those who graduated during COVID and entered the jobs market during the work from home era? What about those in non-graduate jobs? And what about the next generation - those who were in school during the peak of COVID?

This week we're joined by Sarah O'Connor, employment columnist at the Financial Times, and Xiaowei Xu, Senior Economist at IFS to answer these questions.

Find out more: www.ifs.org.uk/podcast

Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

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Strikes, Budgets, Brexit and elections: a look ahead to 2023

Wed, 11 Jan 2023 15:05:07 GMT

Happy New Year! After a tumultuous 2022, we look to the year ahead and hope for calmer waters.

Joining us on our voyage into the future are Dr. Hannah White, Director of the Institute for Government, and Anand Menon, Director of the UK in a Changing Europe.

From strikes and immigration, to Budgets and Brexit, we offer our best analysis of the situation we're currently in, and what we expect to happen next year.

Find out more: www.ifs.org.uk/podcast

Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

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Are we in a new era of austerity?

Thu, 24 Nov 2022 12:46:02 GMT

Last week, the Chancellor gave his autumn statement. In the run-up, many expected significant cuts to public spending, ushering in a new era of austerity.

But did these anticipated cuts happen? How important is it to bring down debt? And after a decade of cuts in the 2010s, how are departments faring?

This week, we speak with Gemma Tetlow, Chief Economist at the Institute for Government, and Carl Emmerson, Deputy Director at IFS.

Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

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What we owe each other: a new social contract

Wed, 16 Nov 2022 10:33:39 GMT

This week, we're bringing you the IFS Annual Lecture, given this year by Baroness Minouche Shafik. In it she talks about what a new social contract for the 21st century would look like.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/events/ifs-annual-lecture-baroness-minouche-shafik

Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

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Why are older workers leaving the workforce?

Wed, 02 Nov 2022 12:00:57 GMT

Since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, there has been a fall in the employment rate in the UK, driven by a rise in the rate of economic inactivity rather than in unemployment.

What has been happening to older workers since the pandemic? Why are they leaving the workforce? Should government work to bring them back?

We speak to Jonathan Cribb, Associate Director at IFS, and Beatrice Boileau, Research Economist at IFS to find out what has been happening with older workers.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcast

Support IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

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The challenges facing the Chancellor

Wed, 12 Oct 2022 10:31:11 GMT

The UK economy faces a series of challenging headwinds - high inflation, higher energy prices and a 'terms of trade' shock. These are squeezing household budgets and pushing up the cost of living. The adverse market reaction to the Chancellor's 'mini-budget' on the 23rd September has created further difficulties.

In this year's Green Budget, our flagship annual report funded by the Nuffield Foundation in partnership with Citi, we explore the Chancellor's options for achieving fiscal sustainability.

We speak with Carl Emmerson, IFS Deputy Director, and Ben Nabarro, Chief UK Economist at Citi, to take a broad view of the UK economy and the public finances, and see what a path forward might look like.

Support IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

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Benefits, inflation and redistribution

Thu, 06 Oct 2022 13:46:07 GMT

In recent weeks, the new Prime Minister has argued that the UK has been too focused on redistribution.

But what role does the benefit system play in redistribution? Has this changed over recent decades? And should benefits be uprated in line with inflation?

Joining us are Charlotte Pickles, Director of Reform, and Tom Waters, IFS Senior Economist.

Find out more: https://www.ifs.org.uk/podcast

Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

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Will public sector workers get a pay rise?

Wed, 21 Sep 2022 13:02:14 GMT

Workers in the public sector have seen their pay squeezed over the last decade, and with inflation on the rise, disputes over pay look set to dominate the headlines this autumn.

Across the public sector, we're hearing stories of hiring issues, staff retention and squeezed budgets. These issues all affect the morale of the workforce and the delivery of public services.

What will the government do? How much would inflation matching pay increases cost? What would a longer-term plan to deal with these issues look like?

This week we speak to Ben Zaranko, IFS expert on public finances and Delphine Strauss, Economics Correspondent at the Financial Times.

Support IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

Public sector pensions episode: https://ifs.org.uk/articles/future-public-sector-pensions

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The challenges facing the new Prime Minister

Tue, 06 Sep 2022 14:41:30 GMT

As Liz Truss takes office, she is faced with a series of interlocking challenges - rising inflation, an energy crisis and a cost of living crisis.

How can she tackle these in the short-term and put the country back on surer footing in the long-term?

Paul speaks to IFS economists Ben Zaranko and Xiaowei Xu to assess the challenges facing the new Prime Minister.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/podcast

Support IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/individual-membership

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The future of public sector pensions

Wed, 13 Jul 2022 11:54:21 GMT

In an era where those in the private sector have seen their pension provision decrease, pensions in the public sector continue to look generous.

But is this sustainable? Should we change the balance between pay and pensions for those in the public sector? What does the future hold for public sector pensions?

Support the IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/donate

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How can we fix the childcare system?

Thu, 16 Jun 2022 08:29:19 GMT

Early education and childcare can have a critical impact both on helping children to develop and in supporting parents, especially mothers, to work.

In recent months, reports of soaring childcare costs and staff shortages combined with the wider cost of living crisis have pushed government to act. But how expensive is childcare in the UK? How does it stack up against other countries? What can the government do to bring down costs?

This week, we speak to Christine Farquharson, senior economist at IFS and expert on education and childcare and to Neil Leitch, Chief Executive of the Early Years Alliance.

Support the IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/donate

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HIGHLIGHT: The productivity problem

Mon, 06 Jun 2022 08:35:42 GMT

**We will be back next week with a new episode **

In the past decade, the UK has seen some of the slowest rates of productivity growth of the OECD countries, with output per hour and real wages no higher today than they were prior to the global financial crisis. Why is a high-tech, developed economy like the UK struggling to be more productive? What policies can government implement to get productivity growing again? And how can we spur innovation while also tackling issues like inequality?

This week, we speak to John Van Reenen, Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, and expert on innovation, firms and productivity.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/donate

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How should the government tax electric cars?

Thu, 19 May 2022 15:15:09 GMT

In 2030, motorists in the UK won't be able to buy fossil fuel powered vehicles from showrooms anymore. To incentivise a shift to an all-electric future, the government is giving considerable tax breaks to the owners of electric vehicles (EVs) to stimulate uptake.

However, as more and more people move away from fossil fuels, the government stands to lose billions of pounds in tax revenue - unless it decides to tax EVs.

In this episode, we speak to Stuart Adam, IFS tax expert and Steve Gooding, Director of the RAC Foundation to discuss how the government could tax EVs in future.

Support the IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/donate

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The future of student loans

Wed, 04 May 2022 10:09:11 GMT

Since 2012, students have been paying considerably higher tuition fees, and borrowing more money in the form of student loans.

The average graduate racks up a total average debt of £45,000 and only a minority of students under the current system will ever pay these loans back in full. By the middle of the century, the government forecasts the unpaid student loans debt to be around £560 billion.

In a series of recently announced reforms, the government has indicated a desire for students to pay back more of their loans, and pushed through significant changes to the system.

This week, Paul speaks to Ben Waltmann, IFS education expert, and Ivor Crewe, panellist on the Augar Review of the post-18 education system, to get to the bottom of these reforms and think about how students, taxpayers and universities will be affected.

Are too many people going to university?: https://ifs.org.uk/podcast/are-too-many-people-going-to-university

Support the IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/donate

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HIGHLIGHT: How should the government influence what we eat?

Wed, 20 Apr 2022 14:05:21 GMT

** This is an episode from 2021. We will return with a new episode next week **

The food we eat and the way it is produced impacts not only our health and lifestyles, but also our carbon footprints.

The recent National Food Strategy report commissioned by the government and published this summer proposes measures to improve our health, reduce strain on the NHS and make our food culture healthier and more sustainable. What role should the government play in influencing what we eat? And how can taxes and policy be designed to get us to eat more healthily?

This week, Paul is joined by Henry Dimbleby, co-founder of the restaurant chain Leon and leader of the National Food Strategy report, and IFS Associate Director and expert on food taxes Kate Smith.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/donate

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How should we tax multinational corporations?

Wed, 06 Apr 2022 02:00:49 GMT

Taxing multinational corporations more fairly is often presented in the media is a no-brainer - an open goal for government to increase tax revenue and cut down on tax avoiding behaviour.

But what seems like a simple policy is in fact incredibly complicated, requiring the navigation of complex international laws and fundamental questions over types of property and where intangible assets exist.

In this episode, Paul speaks to Helen Miller, IFS tax expert, and Dan Neidle, a tax lawyer specialising in corporate taxation, to get a sense of how successful international efforts to tax multinationals are.

Support the IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/donate

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Spring Statement: inflation, living standards and uncertainty

Fri, 25 Mar 2022 06:30:24 GMT

The current economic environment is shaped by inflation and a rising cost of living crisis. During this period of uncertainty, the Chancellor gave his Spring Statement, outlining his plans for the public finances and responding to the shocks facing the economy.

In this episode, Paul speaks with Carl Emmerson, Deputy Director at IFS and Tom Waters, IFS research economist, about the Chancellor’s statement and the implications going forward.

Become a member: https://ifs.org.uk/donate

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Is the UK spending enough on defence?

Wed, 09 Mar 2022 12:54:12 GMT

Since we were last on air, Russia has invaded the Ukraine, and defence has come to the fore of the public conversation.

How much does the UK spend on defence? How has this changed over time? And what will Russia's invasion mean for UK defence spending?

This week, we speak with Malcolm Chalmers, Deputy Director-General at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) and Ben Zaranko, IFS Public Finance expert.

Support the IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/donate

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Everything you need to know about National Insurance

Wed, 23 Feb 2022 15:15:17 GMT

National Insurance Contributions are rising in April. Since being announced, opinion has been divided on whether this is the best mechanism to raise revenue.

But, what are National Insurance contributions? Are they the same as income tax? What will the extra tax revenue raised from April be used for? And are there better ways of raising tax?

In this episode, IFS Deputy Director Helen Miller takes us through the world of National Insurance Contributions, and answers questions posed by our social media followers.

Support the IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/donate

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Should people be saving more for retirement?

Thu, 10 Feb 2022 16:37:43 GMT

In a world of rising housing costs, rising energy bills and increasing taxes, saving for retirement may be at the back of many people's minds. But decisions around when and how much to save can be crucial in shaping people's lives post-retirement.

This week, we're joined by Claer Barrett, Consumer Editor at the Financial Times and host of the FT's Money Clinic podcast, and Carl Emmerson, Deputy Director at IFS and pensions expert.

Support the IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/donate

See Claer's article 'The Million Pound Pension Problem': https://www.ft.com/content/48ae7709-916b-4cec-b22f-3c006805b699

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What should the government do about rising energy prices?

Wed, 26 Jan 2022 12:00:00 GMT

The UK is engulfed in a cost of living crisis, from rising inflation to flat-lining wages and incoming tax rises. In addition, energy prices are set to rise steeply, affecting households up and down the country and especially those on lower incomes.

This week, we're joined by Giles Wilkes a senior fellow at the Institute for Government and former special adviser to Theresa May on industrial and economic policy, and Stuart Adam, a Senior Economist at IFS who focuses on the design of the tax and benefit system, to understand why energy prices are rising, and think about what the government can do to bring down prices and help households.

Support the IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/donate

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What you should be paying attention to in 2022

Wed, 12 Jan 2022 11:41:57 GMT

Happy New Year and welcome to season three of the IFS Zooms In!

This week Paul is joined by four IFS experts, Robert Joyce, Helen Miller, Ben Zaranko and Christine Farquharson to discuss the most important issues facing the economy in 2022.

From the rising cost of living, to tax rises in April, an Omicron surge challenging the NHS and an education system making up for lost learning, we'll go beyond the headlines and brief you on the deeper stories you should be paying attention to this year.

Support the IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/donate

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Has globalisation deepened inequality?

Wed, 15 Dec 2021 14:26:48 GMT

Many economies in Western Europe have experienced a sizeable increase in income inequality since the 1980s, and inequality has grown even more rapidly in the United States. This rising inequality in advanced economies coincided with a period of globalisation that was characterised by rapid growth in international merchandise trade.

What role did globalisation play in deepening inequality?

In this episode, we speak with IFS economist Peter Levell and Penny Goldberg, Professor of Economics at Yale University and former Chief Economist of the World Bank.

**The sudden shift to home working left us without our usual equipment - apologies for any issues with audio quality**

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The common good after Covid

Wed, 17 Nov 2021 09:36:35 GMT

This week, we bring you this year's IFS annual lecture delivered by Professor Jean Tirole, Honorary Chairman of the Toulouse School of Economics. In his talk, he discusses how economics can be used to shape narratives and help solve the biggest crises facing our societies and governments.

Support the IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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Can carbon taxes get us to net zero?

Wed, 03 Nov 2021 06:00:00 GMT

This week, all eyes are on the UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) summit in Glasgow as world leaders meet to accelerate action on climate change.

The UK is legally committed to reducing the net greenhouse gas emissions that arise from UK-based activities to zero by 2050, but action to reduce emissions will need to happen on a global scale to be effective. What policies should governments worldwide introduce to combat climate change? How should carbon taxes be designed to ensure a cost-efficient and fair transition to net zero?

This week, IFS Director and Climate Change Committee member Paul Johnson is joined by Alice Pirlot, Research Fellow at the Oxford University Centre for Business Taxation, and IFS Associate Director Peter Levell.

Support the IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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How should the government influence what we eat?

Fri, 22 Oct 2021 10:52:09 GMT

The food we eat and the way it is produced impacts not only our health and lifestyles, but also our carbon footprints.

This week, Paul is joined by Henry Dimbleby, co-founder of the restaurant chain Leon and leader of the National Food Strategy report, and IFS Associate Director and expert on food taxes Kate Smith.

Find out more about the IFS: https://ifs.org.uk/

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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SPECIAL: What should the Chancellor consider in his autumn budget?

Wed, 13 Oct 2021 09:13:58 GMT

This week, we published the IFS Green Budget, our flagship publication analysing at the outlook for the economy and the opportunities and challenges facing the Chancellor ahead of the autumn budget.

We speak to Benjamin Nabarro, Senior Associate at Citi Research, and Carl Emmerson, Deputy Director at IFS, to discuss the ongoing impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, as the Chancellor aims to secure a lasting recovery and deliver on the government’s other objectives and priorities.

The IFS Green Budget is produced in partnership with Citi, and is funded by the Nuffield Foundation.

Find out more: https://ifs.org.uk/green-budget

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

Citi disclosures: https://ir.citi.com/yFS39VEXTHB9LB42vdE1xZP0VjyL9LOxpaO4LN%2FamW770hu2OdhPQCEXd0aPMduZrBygj%2FbvVgE%3D

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Job vacancies, labour shortages and a 'high-wage economy'

Wed, 06 Oct 2021 09:20:53 GMT

From HGV drivers, to strawberry pickers, to doctors and nurses, the UK seems to be facing labour shortages across many different industries.

As the pandemic recedes, and the impacts of Brexit begin to reveal themselves, the government have insisted that this is part of the transition to a 'high-wage economy'. What is happening in the labour market? Which sectors are facing the biggest challenges? And what can policy-makers do to help?

This week, we're joined by Jonathan Cribb and Xiaowei Xu, IFS experts on labour markets and jobs.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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How to fix the education system

Wed, 22 Sep 2021 09:13:25 GMT

After a year and half of lockdowns, schools and their students face a vast array of challenges.

From mental health issues and childhood obesity to teacher shortages and exam results, the education system has been placed under incredible strain over the past year.

This week, we speak with Birgitta Rabe, education expert at the University of Essex and Luke Sibieta, a research fellow at IFS who studies education policy, to dig into the issues and see what we can do to fix the education system.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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Social care: what happens now?

Wed, 15 Sep 2021 09:04:00 GMT

For decades, social care has been in need of reform.

Last week, the Prime Minister announced an extra tax to fund social care in England, and help the NHS recover after the pandemic, and changes to the way the social care system works.

In this episode, featuring Natasha Curry, Deputy Director of Policy at the Nuffield Trust, and Ben Zaranko, IFS economist, we dig into the new announcement, what it means, whether it will work and how it will affect people's care.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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HIGHLIGHT: When and how to raise taxes?

Wed, 25 Aug 2021 01:34:00 GMT

**This is a rerun from September 2020. The government announced some tax increases in Budget 2021. We discuss those here: https://ifs.org.uk/budget-2021**

The financial support given to individuals and businesses and the costs of managing the pandemic have left us with the biggest peacetime deficit in British history.

As the economy reopens, and the coronavirus begins to have less of a hold on our lives, the government will need to start thinking about how to return the deficit to a more sustainable level.

Many have suggested that the Chancellor might think about raising taxes in the near future to tackle this deficit.

In this episode, recorded last autumn, our resident tax expert, Helen Miller, helps pick apart the options for raising taxes - and whether they are effective.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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HIGHLIGHT: The state of social mobility

Wed, 11 Aug 2021 02:01:00 GMT

This week, students across the country are getting back A Level and GCSE grades. In the past higher education was considered a one-way ticket to better and higher paying jobs, now many question whether they will get better jobs, and have a quality of life higher than that of their parents.

Social mobility is never far from the front pages; education, geographic and intergenerational inequalities and jobs affect everyone.

This week we bring you a conversation from September last year, with Lindsey MacMillan, Director of the Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities and Anna Vignoles, Director of the Leverhulme Trust where we explore issues around social mobility.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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HIGHLIGHT: Investment, infrastructure and levelling up

Wed, 28 Jul 2021 00:00:00 GMT

The government has pledged to make 'levelling up' a core part of their policy agenda. To achieve this, they have promised increased investment spending and infrastructure spending.

What is investment spending? Why is investment so much lower now than it was 40 or 50 years ago? How does this relate to the levelling up agenda?

This week, we are digging into the archives. In this episode from last year we spoke with Professor Sir Tim Besley, Professor of Economics at LSE and member of the National Infrastructure Commission, and Ben Zaranko, Research Economist at IFS.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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How to reform - and fund - social care?

Thu, 15 Jul 2021 13:47:03 GMT

Ageing populations, rising care costs and COVID-19 have placed significant strain on an already struggling social care sector. Since assuming office in 2019, the Prime Minister has repeatedly promised to present a comprehensive plan to reform social care, the latest in a long line of governments to promise to tackle the issue.

So, how should we think about reforming social care? How should we pay for it? And what can we learn from other countries?

This week Paul speaks with Andrew Dilnot, Warden of Nuffield College Oxford and author of the Dilnot Report on Social Care, set up under David Cameron's coalition government, and Natasha Curry, Deputy Director of Policy at the Nuffield Trust and expert on social care.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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Behind the scenes at HM Treasury

Wed, 30 Jun 2021 11:47:06 GMT

Over the pandemic, the Treasury has spent hundreds of billions of pounds, from paying wages via the furlough scheme to funding the testing program. But how does decision-making work at the Treasury? What kinds of evidence do officials use? And as we hopefully exit the pandemic, what will be on the minds of those working there?

This week Paul speaks to Jill Rutter, senior research fellow of UK in a Changing Europe, and a former employee of the Treasury and Lord Nick Macpherson, Permanent Secretary to the Treasury from 2005 to 2016.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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Location, location, location: how to reform council tax?

Wed, 16 Jun 2021 13:30:11 GMT

Everybody over the age of 18 who lives in a property in the UK is eligible to pay council tax. It's the fifth largest tax, raising up to £40bn a year in the UK, and it pays for local services such as social care, waste collection and libraries.

However, there is a widespread consensus that the implementation of council tax is flawed. The house prices it is based on haven't changed since 1991 despite 30 years of significant change in the housing market and these changes have made the tax regressive.

Joining us this week to dissect council tax and work out how we can reform it are David Phillips, Associate Director at IFS and local government expert, and John Stevenson, the Conservative MP for Carlisle who has written extensively about reforming council tax.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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Can the NHS recover from COVID?

Wed, 02 Jun 2021 08:31:49 GMT

'Stay home. Protect the NHS. Save lives.'

More than ever, the COVID crisis has bought the NHS and the vital role it plays to the fore. However, after more than a year of unprecedented pressure, it faces long waiting lists, staffing shortages and inadequate funding. What challenges will the NHS face in the future? How can it tackle these issues? And what can government do to help?

Joining us this week are George Stoye, IFS Associate Director who leads our work on healthcare, and Saffron Cordery, Deputy Chief Executive of NHS Providers, the membership organisation for NHS trusts.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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Are too many people going to university?

Wed, 19 May 2021 02:00:46 GMT

In September 1999, Tony Blair set a goal for 50% of young adults to attend higher education institutions in the UK. In 2019, twenty years after the policy was announced, university attendance tipped over the 50% threshold.

However, in a world where many graduates work in non-graduate jobs, and where successive governments seek to develop further education in the UK, many have questioned the wisdom of this policy.

This week, we speak with Jack Britton, IFS education expert, and Professor Alison Wolf, Sir Roy Griffiths Professor of Public Sector Management at Kings College London, to find out whether too many people are going to university.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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Has COVID transformed the labour market?

Wed, 05 May 2021 09:39:28 GMT

Since the start of the COVID pandemic, the government has stepped in to pay the wages of millions of workers through the furlough scheme. As restrictions ease, and economic life begins to recover, we ask what changes COVID brought to the labour market, and what jobs could look like in future.

This week, we speak with Sarah O'Connor, Employment Columnist at the Financial Times, and Jonathan Cribb, a Senior Research Economist at IFS who studies the labour market.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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Are business rates killing the high street?

Wed, 28 Apr 2021 13:10:38 GMT

Business rates are charged on non-domestic properties, such as shops, offices, pubs, factories and warehouses, and raise around 3% government's revenue.

At the start of the COVID pandemic, the government waived business rates for most businesses in the retail, hospitality and leisure sectors. But the tax will start again from summer. As the high street reopens, we ask what effect business rates have on our high streets, whether they should be reformed, and whether we need a new tax on online retail to level the playing field.

This week, we speak with Helen Miller, IFS tax expert, and Helen Dickinson, CEO of the British Retail Consortium.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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HIGHLIGHT: Geographical inequalities in the UK

Wed, 07 Apr 2021 02:00:00 GMT

The COVID-19 crisis has brought to the fore increasing concerns about inequalities not only between different population groups – such as the gap between the rich and poor, young and old, and different ethnic groups – but also between people living in different places.

Even prior to the crisis though, there was a sense that the UK is not only a highly geographically unequal country, but also an increasingly geographically unequal one.

This week, we have gone into the archive to bring you an episode from last year exploring geographical inequalities with David Phillips, Associate Director at IFS and an expert on devolved and local government finance.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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The productivity problem

Wed, 24 Mar 2021 10:02:47 GMT

This week, we speak to John Van Reenen, Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics, and expert on innovation, firms and productivity.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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Universal Credit: The future of benefits?

Wed, 10 Mar 2021 03:00:00 GMT

Universal Credit is a benefit for working-age people, which combines six existing benefits payments into one payment. Launched in 2013, there are now about 5 million households claiming Universal Credit in the UK. What was the thinking behind this new policy? Has it been successful? And how has COVID affected the trajectory of Universal Credit?

This week, Paul speaks with Charlotte Pickles, Director of Reform and a member of the Social Security Advisory Committee, and Tom Waters, Senior Research Economist at IFS and expert on benefits.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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Budget 2021: The road to recovery?

Wed, 24 Feb 2021 03:00:26 GMT

The Spring 2021 Budget will be the first one since the UK entered a series of lockdowns and Great Britain left the EU's Single Market and Customs Union. The Chancellor has immediate decisions to make over many aspects of the emergency support packages that will otherwise expire soon. In addition there is a clear need for policies to help the economy to recover and to adjust to a post-Covid, post-Brexit world in which we are moving towards Net Zero.

In this episode, Paul speaks with IFS Deputy Directors, Carl Emmerson and Helen Miller to explore the kinds of things the Chancellor should be thinking about.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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Catching up on lost learning

Wed, 10 Feb 2021 09:37:30 GMT

By the time the pandemic is over, most children across the UK will have missed over half a year of normal, in-person schooling. That’s likely to be more than 5% of their entire time in school.

What are the effects of this lost learning? How is it impacting students and teachers? What can policymakers do to make up for lost learning?

Here to discuss are Luke Sibieta, IFS Research Fellow, and Becky Francis, CEO of the Education Endowment Foundation, an independent charity which seeks to improve the educational attainment of the poorest pupils in English schools.

Support the IFS: https://www.ifs.org.uk/about/membership/individual

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The economics of net zero

Wed, 27 Jan 2021 03:00:00 GMT

The UK has committed to achieving net zero by 2050. To achieve this, nearly all sections of the economy will have to undergo significant changes - from trade and transport, to agriculture and construction. What will this shift look like? How easy will it be to transition? What role will government play in driving net zero?

Here to talk through these issues is Chris Stark, Chief Executive of the UK's Climate Change Committee (CCC), the UK’s independent advisory group on tackling climate change.

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The state of inequality with Sir Angus Deaton

Wed, 13 Jan 2021 13:11:09 GMT

For many, inequality has become the dominant lens through which to understand our society. The coronavirus crisis and political upheavals in the US and UK have shone a harsh light on the increasing inequalities we face, and prove that not everyone is affected equally.

In our first episode of 2021, we speak with Nobel Laureate Sir Angus Deaton, Professor of Economics at Princeton University and leading expert on inequality, poverty and welfare. He also chairs Inequality: The IFS Deaton Review, our multi-year study into inequality in the modern world, funded by the Nuffield Foundation.

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SPECIAL: Making sense of 2020

Wed, 16 Dec 2020 09:00:00 GMT

It’s now cliché to say that 2020 has been unprecedented, but the COVID-19 crisis has turned the lives of billions of us worldwide upside down. From record-level UK government borrowing and a furlough scheme paying the wages of many workers, to society-wide lockdowns and a seemingly ever-shifting regime of tiers, 2020 is a year like no other.As we say goodbye to 2020 and ready ourselves for 2021, our Director Paul Johnson sits down with Stephanie Flanders, head of Bloomberg Economics and IFS alumna, to make sense of 2020 and see what we can learn from it going into the New Year.

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What's going on with Brexit?

Wed, 02 Dec 2020 14:44:42 GMT

As the UK has been dealing with coronavirus pandemic this year, we have also been moving closer to the realities of our new relationship with the European Union, and the end of the Brexit transition period on January 1st, 2021.

What does this mean for our future trading relationships with the EU and beyond? What happens if there is No Deal?

Joining Paul this week is Professor L. Alan Winters, Professor of Economics and Director of the UK Trade Policy Observatory in the University of Sussex, former Chief Economist of Department for International Development (DFID), and leading contributor to the debate on Brexit.

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Prices in a crisis

Tue, 17 Nov 2020 03:00:47 GMT

We often hear about inflation in the news, whether it has gone up or down, and how this impacts the price of everyday goods. But what do economists mean by inflation, how do they measure it, and is inflation the best way of understanding the changes in the price of goods? This week we speak with Martin O'Connell, Deputy Research Director at IFS and author of a recent paper looking at grocery prices during the pandemic, and Ian Crawford, Professor of Economics at Oxford.

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What’s happened to benefits through the pandemic?

Wed, 04 Nov 2020 10:05:37 GMT

There has been significant analysis of the furlough scheme in the wake of COVID-19, but far less attention has been paid to the welfare system and how benefits are being affected by the pandemic. The temporary increases to working age benefits implemented this year take total welfare spending to record levels, though the UK’s support system is still thin by international standards. This episode, we speak to Robert Joyce, IFS Deputy Director and Head of our Income, Work and Welfare sector, about how COVID-19 has impacted the UK’s welfare system and what might happen to benefits in future.

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What's happening with government debt?

Wed, 21 Oct 2020 15:30:30 GMT

Government borrowing is never far from the headlines, and in the current crisis, has been a central mechanism for the government to fund its economic support measures. There are many questions around the current level of government debt, whether it is too high, what the long-term implications are and if the government can continue to borrow at its current level. This week we speak with David Miles, Professor at Imperial College London and a former member of the Monetary Policy Committee at the Bank of England, to answer these questions about government debt in the COVID era.

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Counting the cost of COVID-19

Thu, 15 Oct 2020 15:00:56 GMT

The COVID-19 pandemic and the public health measures implemented to contain it will lead to a huge spike in government borrowing this year. This week we released our annual Green Budget report analysing the impact the coronavirus crisis has had across different sectors of the economy and the big decisions confronting the Chancellor. In this episode, we speak with Green Budget chapter authors Ben Nabarro, Economist at Citi, and Carl Emmerson, Deputy Director at IFS, to get a sense of how big government borrowing could get and what the long-term impacts will be.'

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How is coronavirus affecting older workers?

Wed, 07 Oct 2020 02:00:00 GMT

Older workers are one group of people who are at risk of suffering serious and persistent consequences from the economic turmoil arising from the coronavirus pandemic. Previous research has shown that unemployment shocks have persistent effects on the employment and incomes of older workers. In particular, older individuals who lose their jobs are less likely to secure re-employment, or to find a job on a similar wage to their previous earnings, than younger workers. Being unexpectedly out of work, or on lower wages, in the years leading up to retirement can have obvious negative implications for retirement resources. In this episode, we speak with Rowena Crawford, IFS Associate Director, who has recently published research on how the pandemic is impacting older workers.

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University Challenge: COVID-19 and higher education

Wed, 30 Sep 2020 02:00:50 GMT

The COVID pandemic has created huge uncertainly for students returning to university. Have student numbers remained stable in the face of the COVID-19 crisis? Has the A Level results debacle had an impact on admissions? Should students be paying full rates for an online-only experience? How are university finances doing more generally in the face of the coronavirus crisis?

In this episode, we speak with Jack Britton, education expert at the IFS, to consider some of the complex questions facing the higher education sector.

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Moving on up: the state of social mobility

Wed, 23 Sep 2020 02:08:19 GMT

A socially mobile country provides equal opportunities for everyone, across big cities and small towns, and regardless of whether your parents are rich or poor. Social mobility is never far from the front pages; discussions around education, geographic and intergenerational inequalities and jobs affect everyone. Joining us this week is Lindsey MacMillan, Director of the new Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities and Anna Vignoles, Professor of Education at the Faculty of Education, University of Cambridge.

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Taxing times ahead? When and how to raise taxes

Wed, 16 Sep 2020 15:05:06 GMT

The coronavirus pandemic has brought new and severe pressures on the UK economy. The challenge now facing Her Majesty’s Treasury will be how to balance the need for increasing revenues through taxes with stimulating much-needed economic growth. This week, our host and IFS Director Paul Johnson speaks to Helen Miller, Deputy Director of the IFS and expert on tax policy, to discuss how the Treasury might raise revenues in the future and how our current tax system can be reformed.

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Childcare during the pandemic

Wed, 09 Sep 2020 09:31:31 GMT

The closures of childcare providers to most families during the COVID-19 crisis have underlined the importance of access to childcare, both to support paid work and to help shape young children’s environment. However, the crisis has had severe consequences for the finances of childcare providers, which were already weak in several parts of the sector going into the crisis. Despite a range of government support programmes, many providers lost income during lockdown. In the medium term, a longer-lasting fall in demand for childcare or an increase in costs related to social distancing could seriously hamper financial sustainability in the sector going forward. This week, we speak with Christine Farquharson, Senior Research Economist at IFS and Claire Crawford, Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Birmingham and IFS Research Fellow.

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What to expect when schools reopen?

Wed, 26 Aug 2020 13:42:24 GMT

While most things have changed in 2020, the end of the summer will once again see students preparing to go back to school. But this year’s return to school will be unlike any that has come before; for many students, it will have been more than five months since they last attended school in person. Reopening schools has been contentious, but the Department for Education in England – partly motivated by research showing the challenges from home learning and the growing inequalities it has brought – has signalled its determination for all students to return come September. This will be a decisive shift from a period in which schools were open for some year groups, some of the time, with some families choosing to attend while others stayed home. This week we are joined by Angela Donkin, Chief Social Scientist, at the National Foundation For Educational Research (NFER) and Sarah Cattan, Associate Director at IFS in the Education and Skills sector.

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A Level playing field? Exam results during the pandemic

Mon, 17 Aug 2020 13:08:19 GMT

Recently, students got their A Level results, despite having never sat an exam.

How did the government decide what grades to give students? What methodology did they use? How has this affected the distribution of results?

This week, we speak with Jack Britton, Associate Director at IFS and expert on education, to get to the bottom of how this year's A Level results were calculated.

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The potential consequences of Brexit

Wed, 12 Aug 2020 02:25:02 GMT

For the last five months the country has, understandably, been focused on the health and economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is already having a huge effect on the economy, on employment and on the public finances. All the while, though, the government has been preparing for the reality of Brexit; not the formal Brexit that happened back in January, but the new trading relationship which will come into force at the end of this year. That too, whatever the final deal, will cause deep and fundamental changes to our economy and to jobs, earnings and incomes.

In this episode, we speak to Peter Levell, Senior Research Economist at IFS and expert in the economics of Brexit, to look at how the significant change in our trading relationship with Europe will affect the UK.

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Catching up or falling behind? Geographical inequalities in the UK

Wed, 05 Aug 2020 02:00:00 GMT

The COVID-19 crisis has highlighted concerns about inequalities. This is not only about gaps between rich and poor, young and old and between different ethnic groups. It is also about the differences between people living in different places. Even prior to the crisis, there was a sense that the UK is a highly geographically unequal country and that this inequality is increasing. In this episode, we explore these geographical inequalities with David Phillips, Associate Director at IFS and an expert on devolved and local government finance.

Inequality: The IFS Deaton Review is funded by the Nuffield Foundation.

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Keeping it in the family: inheritances and inequality

Wed, 29 Jul 2020 08:29:58 GMT

Recent decades have seen rising wealth-to-income ratios. In England, increases in wealth have been concentrated among older generations. Those born in the 1980s have accumulated no more wealth than those born in the 1970s had done by the same age, but the parents of those born in the 1980s hold 40% more wealth than the parents of those born in the 1970s held at the same age. One consequence is that inherited wealth is on course to be a much more important determinant of lifetime resources for today’s young than it was for previous generations. In this episode we speak to James Banks, Professor of Economics at the University of Manchester and Senior Research Fellow at IFS, and David Sturrock, Senior Research Economist.

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Have the Chancellor's policies been stimulating enough?

Wed, 15 Jul 2020 01:00:00 GMT

Last week - in the Summer Economic Update - the Chancellor announced another significant spending package. In normal times, even in times of recession, this package would have been seen as huge. But, of course, these are not normal times and this is no normal recession. Joining us this week to discuss the spending package is Helen Miller, Deputy Director at the IFS and Chris Giles, Economics Editor at the Financial Times.

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Investment, infrastructure and levelling up

Thu, 09 Jul 2020 01:00:00 GMT

The government has pledged to make 'levelling up' a core part of their policy agenda. To achieve this, they have promised increased investment spending and infrastructure spending. What is investment spending? Why is investment so much lower now than it was 40 or 50 years ago? How does this relate to recent announcements from the government, and the response to the pandemic? Joining us today, Professor Sir Tim Besley, Professor of Economics at LSE and member of the National Infrastructure Commission, and Ben Zaranko, Research Economist at IFS.

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Incomes before, during and after the pandemic

Wed, 01 Jul 2020 01:00:00 GMT

The effect of the COVID-19 crisis on the economy has been huge. National income fell by 20% in April, to a level last seen in the early 2000s. But the impact of this vast aggregate shock on the finances of different households will vary widely. In this episode, we ask how household incomes were looking before the crisis, how they've been impacted during the lockdown and what we think they could look like in future.

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The long shadow of Covid-19 on the economy and the public finances

Wed, 24 Jun 2020 02:00:00 GMT

We found out that the UK came close to insolvency in March as a result of the turmoil caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Thankfully, the country managed to avoid that. Nevertheless, the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unprecedented damage to the UK economy. In this episode, we speak with Benjamin Nabarro, a senior economist at Citi Group and IFS Deputy Director, Carl Emmerson. We ask what the forecast is for the economy, how Brexit will impact that forecast, how the government can help the economy recover and what the long term effects of this crisis might be.

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COVID-19: Are people in some parts of England more 'vulnerable' than others?

Wed, 17 Jun 2020 02:00:00 GMT

The COVID-19 crisis has affected every part of the country – and indeed many other countries. What sets this crisis apart is the many different ways that it is impacting families: while the virus itself is primarily a public health issue, the unprecedented responses it has necessitated mean that this is also very much an economic and a social crisis. This is not to say that it is equally all of these things to all people – some families, and some areas, will be particularly vulnerable to the virus’s health impacts, while others look to be hit particularly hard on economic or social dimensions. We are joined by Imran Rasul, Professor of Economics at University College London and co-director of the Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy at the IFS and Christine Farquharson, Senior Research Economist at the IFS to ask, are people in some parts of England more 'vulnerable' than others?

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The challenges facing further and higher education

Wed, 10 Jun 2020 01:00:00 GMT

Alongside widespread school closures, lockdown has also resulted in significant challenges for the higher and further education sectors. What will happen with universities and students next year? How will the pandemic affect apprenticeship schemes? What are the likely educational and economic impacts on young people from our response to the virus? In this episode we speak with Anna Vignoles, Professor of Education at the University of Cambridge and Luke Sibieta, Research Fellow at the Institute for Fiscal Studies, specialising in education and skills.

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The long-run effects on health and healthcare

Wed, 03 Jun 2020 02:00:00 GMT

In this episode of IFS Zooms In, we'll be looking at the longer term impacts of the current crisis on the nation's health and on the delivery of healthcare. From pent up demand from those unable to attend appointments, to the long-term effects of the recession we have now entered, we will ask how has the pandemic affected our health and healthcare? Joining us are two of the UK’s leading experts on the economics of health and healthcare: Carol Propper, Professor of Economics at Imperial College London, research fellow at the IFS and President of the Royal Economic Society, and James Banks, Professor of Economics at Manchester University and Senior Research Fellow at the IFS.

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Who's looking after the kids?

Wed, 27 May 2020 07:56:30 GMT

The coronavirus crisis has caused drastic changes to most parents’ work lives and other responsibilities. Millions of adults have lost or are forecast to lose their jobs permanently; many more have stopped work temporarily. Others are newly working from home, while many key workers are experiencing additional pressures and risks in their work. For most parents, school and childcare closures have meant that children are at home, and requiring care, for at least an extra six hours a day. How much time have children spent learning from home? Are mothers and fathers sharing the responsibility equally? How is this affecting families' use of time? In this episode of IFS Zooms In, we ask who is looking after the kids?

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Getting people back into work

Wed, 20 May 2020 02:00:00 GMT

Governments are starting to ease restrictions to economic activity. The risks of easing these measures too soon, or in misguided ways, are obvious, not only for public health but also for the economy. A world with no lockdown and a pandemic spreading rapidly through the population does not make for a healthy economy. Neither, in all likelihood, does a world in which containment measures have to be repeatedly reinstated after being eased prematurely or in suboptimal ways. In this episode we ask, how can the UK government get people back to work?

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The unequal effects of the pandemic

Thu, 14 May 2020 01:00:00 GMT

Wherever we look, it seems that inequalities are shaping people's experience of coronavirus and of the lockdown. Ethnic minorities are significantly more likely to die from coronavirus than their white counterparts. Those in lower-paid jobs are more likely to be in a shut-down industry. The lockdown is widening the gender pay gap. In this episode, we take a close look at how the impact of coronavirus on communities is shaped by ethnic, gender and demographic inequalities.

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Is the government doing enough to support workers during the pandemic?

Wed, 06 May 2020 01:30:00 GMT

The government has offered unprecedented support to workers since the start of the lockdown in March. Chancellor Rishi Sunak has announced multiple schemes to tackle the economic impacts of the lockdown, including the JRS (Job Retention Scheme) for employees and the SISS (Self-Employment Income Support Scheme) for self-employed workers. In this episode, IFS Director Paul Johnson speaks to Helen Miller, Deputy Director of the IFS and head of our Tax sector, and Xiaowei Xu, a senior research economist in the Income, Work and Welfare sector. We ask about the government intervention, whether the schemes are extensive enough and what role the benefit system can play in plugging any gaps.

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