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Geopolitical tensions are rising again, following a U.S. attack on an Iranian merchant vessel in the Gulf, which sent oil prices jumping 5–6% with Brent nearing $95 a barrel. While JD Vance leads a U.S. delegation to Islamabad for high-stakes peace talks, a question remains as to whether Tehran will participate. Kevin Warsh’s pre-prepared speech to the senate banking committee spoke of a continuance of monetary policy free from the control of government. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through all this with Phil, plus Canadian CPI, and the significance of tonight’s US retail sales numbers.

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There were strong risk-on moves on Friday on the news that the Hormuz Strait had reopened. Since then, Iran has fired on vessels, and the Straits have closed again. But new talks are on the horizon if, as NAB’s Sally Auld puts it, they show up. The ceasefire officially ends Wednesday but markets aren’t pricing for President Trump’s threat to take out all  energy plants and bridges  Sally talks about how central banks are viewing the conflict and looks ahead to today’s CPI for Canada.

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In this weekend edition of the NAB Morning Call, veteran macroeconomist Phil Suttle joins Phil Dobbie to dissect the "unbridled enthusiasm" of global markets as they seemingly look past a U.S. naval blockade and a precarious energy crisis to push the S&P 500 to new record highs. Suttle warns of a stark internal divergence within the U.S. economy, where a concentrated investment boom in AI and tech masks the reality of flat real disposable income for the average household. The conversation traverses the globe, examining the strategic "payoff" of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the structural hurdles stifling European productivity. Central to the discussion is the "Mike Tyson" moment for central bankers—dealing with the reality of being "hit in the mouth" by supply shocks—as they weigh the necessity of "nipping inflation in the bud" against a world transitioning from "just-in-time" efficiency to a high-cost era of building buffers and resilience.

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There are mixed messages about where the war in Iran is heading. President Trump says a deal is close and that Iran has agreed to surrender its enriched uranium, whilst Arab and European leaders believe it could take six months to reach a deal, hence yesterday’s Beige Book suggested companies were pursuing a wait and see strategy, holding off on major investments. Yet the Philly Fed manufacturing index overnight surged to 26.7 and initial jobless claims fell to a two-month low of 207,000. China’s Q1 GDP beat expectations, despite weaker activity data for March, and there was an upward revision to Eurozone inflation. Again, mixed messages.

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Sally Auld talks about how global markets appear to be "buying time" as investors increasingly price out the immediate threat of a wider Middle East conflict. Following news of an extended ceasefire and the resumption of peace talks, the S&P 500 hit a new record high, underpinned by a resilient U.S. economy and ongoing AI-driven tech momentum. While the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz remains a concern, there seems to be a shift back to domestic fundamentals in the US, including solid Q1 bank earnings. Locally, the focus is squarely on today's Australian Labour Force release, expected to show continued resilience with unemployment steady at 4.3%.

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The hope of more peace talks between the US and Iran provided a temporary reprieve, sending the NASDAQ higher and Brent crude down toward $95 a barrel. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss this and how the fragile situation is reflected in the latest NAB Business Survey, which saw a sharp fall in confidence and the IMF's updated global growth scenarios, which suggest the world economy is already tracking toward an "adverse" outcome due to sustained energy price volatility. 

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While you'd expect chaos, NAB’s Ray Attrill notes that markets actually moved towards the end of the session on a positive note, spurred on by President Trump’s claims that Iranian officials are reaching out to talk peace—even if we should take that with a healthy pinch of salt. He talks to Phil about the "yo-yo" effect on the Aussie dollar, which touched 71 US cents as sentiment shifted, and the continued volatility in oil, with Brent and WTI both climbing despite staying under the $100 mark for now. They also dive into the Bank of Japan’s cautious stance on rate hikes and a sobering warning from the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey regarding the growing threats to global financial stability from the Middle East conflict.

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NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the "stalemate" in the Middle East after ceasefire talks in Islamabad ended without resolution. The breakdown has led to a further escalation, with President Trump announcing a U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz while Iran warns that any military approach to the waterway will be considered a breach of the standing agreement. It’s ecpcted markets will show signs of reversal from last week's brief optimism. They also discuss a jump in U.S. CPI driven by surging gasoline prices and an end to China’s deflationary PPI.

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Phil is joined by James Bentley (Director of Sustainable Finance at NAB) and Richard Lovell (Head of Debt Markets at CEFC) to discuss how current geopolitical instability and energy price volatility are accelerating the business case for net-zero technologies. The conversation highlights the strategic partnership between NAB and the Clean Energy Finance Corporation (CEFC), which provides significant interest rate discounts—up to 115 basis points for on-farm emissions reduction projects—to help SMEs and farmers overcome the high upfront costs of green equipment. From large-scale green hydrogen fertilizer projects to the adoption of "no-till" farming and battery-powered construction cranes, the guests explain how these investments are shifting from environmental ideals to essential tools for operational resilience and long-term cost management.

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NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss the fragile and one-sided nature of the proposed ceasefire in the Middle East, which Rodrigo notes remains highly volatile as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and Israel continues strikes in Lebanon. The conversation explores the "phantom" nature of the peace deal, with Iran demanding the right to continue enriching uranium and proposing a toll for passage through the Strait—conditions that remain far from any common ground with the U.S.. Beyond the conflict, they break down a worrying divergence in the U.S. economy, where Core PCE inflation rose for a second consecutive month while real consumer spending declined. 

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NAB's Skye Masters joins Phil Dobbie to discuss a fragile market reprieve following President Trump’s announcement of a two-week ceasefire with Iran. While the news triggered a significant relief rally—sending the Nasdaq up 2.8% and WTI oil down 17% to $91 a barrel—the optimism remains guarded as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and Iran alleges violations of the agreement. Skye notes that while investors are pricing out an immediate escalation, they aren't yet pricing in a total resolution, as energy prices remain well above pre-conflict levels. The discussion also covers the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's hawkish stance on stubborn inflation and a strong Japanese payrolls print, both of which suggest central banks may still be forced to tighten despite the global geopolitical volatility.

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NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil amidst the heightened tensions in the Middle East as President Donald Trump's 8:00 p.m. ET deadline approaches. Trump has issued a dire warning on Truth Social that a "whole civilization will die tonight" if Iran fails to comply with demands to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. While Axios reported a "glimmer of progress" in negotiations over the last 24 hours, the situation remains critical following recent U.S. and Israeli strikes on Kharg Island and a petrochemical compound in Shiraz. Despite the escalatory rhetoric, global markets have remained relatively sanguine, though oil prices saw WTI rise over 1% to nearly $118 a barrel. The pair also review recent economic data, including strong discretionary spen din Australia in February, and the likely hold from the RBNZ today.

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Taylor Nugent joins Phil Dobbie to discuss the "ratcheting up" of geopolitical tensions as President Trump issues stark warnings and Iran threatens regional infrastructure while maintaining its closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Despite the escalatory rhetoric, global markets showed surprising resilience over the Easter long weekend, though oil remains elevated with Brent hovering near $110 a barrel. They also dissect the latest U.S. non-farm payrolls data, which surprised on the upside with 175k jobs added in March, even as the ISM Services index signalled underlying employment weakness and persistent price pressures. With a light data calendar ahead, the focus remains firmly on the Middle East and upcoming inflation prints from the U.S. and China.

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Phil is joined by Terry Haines, founder of Pangaea Policy, to analyse the shifting geopolitical landscape as President Trump signals a potential wind-down of military action against Iran. Note, this was recorded ahead of Donald Trump’s address today. Haines provides a dual-lens perspective on the administration's strategy, balancing domestic political pressure to end the conflict with the urgent need to reassure Gulf allies that the job will be finished, whilst securing the Strait of Hormuz. But beyond Iran, how are Trump’s policies reflecting on global partnerships and international business. Haines discusses the "Manhattan Project 2.0" branding of AI as a national security priority and examines how a potential Democratic shift in the midterms might impact market sentiment and U.S. regulatory stability.

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NAB's Taylor Nugent joins Phil to discuss the wave of optimism sweeping through global markets as speculation grows regarding a potential ceasefire in the Iran conflict. While the Nasdaq and S&P 500 saw significant gains and oil prices dipped near $100 a barrel, the rally trimmed slightly as investors awaited a high-stakes address from President Trump. The conversation also breaks down resilient U.S. economic data, including a stronger-than-expected ISM manufacturing index—though Taylor notes that rising supply delivery times may reflect Middle East disruptions rather than pure demand. Additionally, the pair explore the Bank of Japan’s growing inflation expectations following the Tankan survey and a rebound in the (admittedly very choppy) Australian building approvals, painting a picture of a global economy showing surprising resilience amidst geopolitical volatility.

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In today’s NAB Morning Call, Rodrigo Catril joins the podcast to break down a wave of market optimism following reports that President Trump is prepared to wind down U.S. military action against Iran. While the Nasdaq surged 3.3% on the news, Rodrigo notes that the situation remains volatile as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed and retaliatory threats persist from both the Houthis and Iran.

Beyond the geopolitical shift, the discussion explores a rebound in China’s manufacturing PMI to 50.4 and a jump in Eurozone inflation to 2.5%, which has sparked a debate between ECB officials on whether these energy-driven shocks are short-lived. Rodrigo also points to a gradual softening in the U.S. labour market, evidenced by a decline in JOLTS job openings, as investors turn their focus toward upcoming non-farm payroll data.

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As the Middle East conflict continues with no clear resolution in sight, global markets are increasingly recalibrating from a focus on short-term inflation spikes to the broader risks of a sustained economic slowdown. Phil discusses how this shifting narrative is pulling bond yields lower across the US, Europe, and the UK, with NAB’s Ken Crompton. They analyse the divergence between the "hawkish" inflation concerns of some central bankers and the growing fear among investors that prolonged high energy costs—like the anticipated $3 per liter fuel in Australia—will eventually crush consumer demand and business investment. 

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As the Middle East conflict enters its fifth week, geopolitical tensions continue to escalate, driving Brent crude back toward $112 a barrel. Phil talks with NAB’s Skye Masters to explore the shifting market narrative as investors weigh the immediate threat of surging inflation against the growing risk of demand destruction. The pair discuss the latest University of Michigan survey, which showed a sharp drop in consumer sentiment alongside rising inflation expectations, and examine why bond yields are fluctuating as markets struggle to price in a potentially protracted war. They also preview a critical week of data, including US payrolls and eurozone CPI, while noting the hawkish rhetoric from central bankers at the ECB and Bank of England as they move to anchor long-term inflation expectations in a highly volatile environment.

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In this weekend’s edition of the NAB Morning Call, Phil talks with Matthew Berg, co-founder of Local Residential, and Bill Halmarick, NAB’s Head of Real Estate, to explore the burgeoning "build-to-rent" sector and its potential to alleviate Australia’s housing affordability crisis. They discuss how this institutional model—common in the UK and US—offers tenants greater security through long-term leases and professional management, contrasting it with the traditional "mom and dad" investor market. The conversation also highlights NAB's ambitious commitment to provide $6 billion in financing for social and affordable housing by 2030, including innovative construction methods like modular housing and partnerships for "impact housing" that integrates diverse income groups within a single community.

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Geopolitical uncertainty continues to dominate market sentiment as a five-day extension to President Trump’s ultimatum fails to produce a diplomatic breakthrough, with Tehran officially rejecting US peace proposals. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to analyse the resulting market volatility, including a rise in Brent crude up to $108, The pair discusses the "fear gauge" (VIX) currently sitting below 30 and what this indicates about market expectations for a potentially prolonged conflict and discuss why central banks like the Norges Bank are already pivoting toward a more hawkish stance as global inflation forecasts are revised upward.

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The path to de-escalation in the Middle East remains stalled as Tehran rejects the latest US peace proposal, issuing counter-demands that include sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and war reparations. Phil talks with NAB’s Taylor Nugent on the market’s reaction to this diplomatic deadlock, noting that while oil prices saw a temporary dip, the prospect of a protracted war continues to drive bond yields higher. There were hawkish tone from ECB President Christine Lagarde, who warned that the central bank "will not be paralyzed by hesitation" in responding to inflationary shocks. Domestically, the focus is on the latest Australian CPI data for February, which showed headline inflation easing slightly to 3.7% and trimmed mean inflation holding steady at 3.3%. These numbers will likely be eclipsed by the massive surge in fuel prices expected to hit the March print.

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Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East enter a dangerous new phase as the US deploys 3,000 troops and Iran launches fresh attacks across the region, sending Brent crude climbing toward $104 a barrel. Phil talks with NAB’s Skye Masters to explore how central banks are moving away from "looking through" temporary shocks toward bracing for the secondary, inflationary impacts of a protracted war. They analyze the sharp rise in bond yields and the sobering reality reflected in the latest global PMI data, which shows surging input prices and weakening consumer confidence in Europe and the US. The discussion also covers Australia’s upcoming CPI data and the finalization of the Australia-EU trade deal, somewhat overshadowed by the escalating conflict.

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Phil asks NAB’s Sally Auld if we’re seeing a TACO trade as President Trump pushes back his 48-hour ultimatum by five days, citing productive talks with Iran that the Iranians claim aren't even happening. This glimmer of a potential off-ramp has seen oil prices tumble nearly 10% and US equities rally. Bond yields have also fallen but remain somewhat elevated on the assumption central banks will continue to adopt a more hawkish tone in response to persistent inflation risks. Also, anecdotal evidence of the impact of surging input costs on business confidence, and what to expect from today’s critical global PMI data and Japanese CPI figures.

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Geopolitical tensions have reached a boiling point as a high-stakes deadline looms for Iran to fully open the Strait of Hormuz or face the "obliteration" of its power plants by the US. Phil talks with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril to analyse a volatile Friday session where markets—already reeling from earlier energy infrastructure attacks—saw Brent crude surge past $112 a barrel and bond yields spike globally. Crucially, these major moves occurred ahead of the weekend's direct ultimatum, meaning investors have yet to fully price in the prospect of a significant escalation. Australian CPI is out this week, along with global PMIs. The focus today, though, is on whether President Trump will carry through with his threats.

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In this weekend edition Phil is joined by Martin Wolf, the FT’s chief economics commentator, to analyze the deepening economic fallout of the intensifying conflict in the Middle East. As oil prices surge past $110 a barrel following attacks on energy infrastructure and a continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Wolf weighs the likelihood of a "nightmare" long-term war against a more optimistic scenario where President Trump declares a swift victory. The discussion explores the potential for a 1970s-style stagflationary shock, the precarious strategic position of an energy-dependent Europe, and the paradoxical resilience of the US dollar as a safe haven. Wolf also sheds light on the broader geopolitical ripple effects, from China’s irritation with regional instability to the severe strain on emerging nations facing a "double whammy" of rising tariffs and energy costs.

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Retaliatory attacks on Qatari gas facilities have sent energy prices soaring, with Brent crude momentarily almost return to $120 a barrel and European benchmark gas prices jumping as much as 30%. In this environment of heightened inflation risk, Phil talks with NAB’s Ray Attrill to examine the sharp rise in global bond yields, specifically a 40-basis-point spike in UK 2-year gilts following the Bank of England’s surprisingly hawkish stance. Ray also provides a deep dive into the latest Australian labour force survey, where a jump in the unemployment rate to 4.3% was offset by a surge in participation. Highlighting the resilience of the market, Ray notes, "Although the unemployment rate rose... employment growth was strong", keeping the labour market tighter than the RBA’s target for full employment and likely deterring any shift away from its restrictive policy.

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Despite mounting geopolitical risks and a surge in oil prices, the Federal Reserve is maintaining a remarkably dovish stance, holding rates steady while signaling that a future cut remains a priority. Phil talks with NAB’s Gavin Friend to explore the central bank's curious optimism as it simultaneously upgrades its US GDP and inflation forecasts while still aiming for rate reductions later this year. Even with a hotter-than-expected 0.7% jump in the Producer Price Index suggesting persistent supply chain pressures, Chair Jerome Powell indicated the Fed is "looking through" the current energy shock to focus on a resilient labor market. As the Fed holds its nerve, attention shifts to the Bank of England and the ECB to see if they will follow this lead or react more sharply to the deepening collapse in economic confidence. The blowback from the attack on Iran’s South Pars refinery will also be watched, as it could mark a significant inflection point in the Middle East war.

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Today NAB’s Sally Auld unpacks the fallout from the RBA's recent interest rate hike to 4.1%. While the decision was a close 5-4 split, it was a question of timing rather than any division of intent. Governor Michelle Bullock’s warning that a recession might be a "necessary" cost to tame stubborn inflation has sent ripples through the market. Meanwhile there’s the surprising resilience of the global economy, noted in both Chinese and US data prior to the Middle East conflict. Phil and Sally also look ahead to the the Bank of Canada and the Fed both poised to keep rates on hold in a "mega week" for central banks.

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NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil this morning to explore the curious rise in global risk appetite despite ongoing volatility and a lack of significant change in the Middle East conflict. They break down the surprising overnight market shifts, including falling yields and a strengthening Aussie dollar, while questioning the sustainability of this "mild positive sentiment". There’s also a preview of today’s highly anticipated RBA meeting - where a rate hike to 4.1% is widely expected - and analyses strong new economic data from China that suggests a firmer start to the year for the global power.

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The war in the Middle East continues to drive sentiment, with oil pushing back above $100 and bond yields rising. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil this morning to discuss how weak US data on Friday, including a sharp fall in GDP. This compounds the issue, leaving central banks balancing inflstion fears with concerns about demand destruction. Slowing economic growth is not confined to the US – the UK also saw weak GDP numbers on Friday, whilst unemployment rose in Canada. None of this is likely to prevent a rate rise from the RBA tomorrow, but other central banks meeting this week, of which there are many, are likelyt to wait and see how things unfold.

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In this episode of The Morning Call, Stewart Upson, Co-President of Infrastructure and Global Head of Strategy at Brookfield, discusses the massive infrastructure shift driven by the rapid evolution of Artificial Intelligence. Upson frames AI as a "flywheel" for technological development, highlighting a staggering $7 trillion investment opportunity over the next decade as the industry moves from basic data centers to fully integrated "data factories". He emphasizes that energy supply remains the primary bottleneck for growth, explaining how Brookfield leverages its expertise in renewable power and nuclear energy to de-risk these high-capital projects. From the rise of sovereign AI and personal AI agents to the long-term potential of embodied AI and robotics, Upson provides a comprehensive look at how infrastructure investors are building the foundation for a more productive, AI-driven global economy.

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NAB's Gavin Friend joins Phil today as heightened rhetoric over Iran pushes oil back over $100 for a spell. They unpack a significant climb in bond yields across the US, UK, and Europe, reflecting a market that is quickly pricing out hope for near-term rate cuts amidst the largest oil supply disruption in history. While the IEA warns of an 8 million barrel per day drop in global supply for March, Gavin breaks down why US Navy escorts might be the only hope for reopening the Straits of Hormuz by month's end. The conversation also pivots to the UK's precarious fiscal position under Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of new GDP data and a surprisingly sharp narrowing of the US trade deficit that could shift Q1 growth forecasts.

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NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to discuss the intensifying tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian attacks on merchant vessels and the threat of naval mines have effectively halted all shipping traffic. Despite a massive release of 400 million barrels of oil from IEA reserves, supply fears have pushed Brent crude toward $92 a barrel, with Iran warning the west should prepare for $200 oil. So, how is this energy shock complicating the global inflation outlook, specifically forcing a shift in NAB’s forecast to include consecutive RBA rate hikes in March and May to combat mounting domestic capacity constraints.

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NAB’s Skye Masters says there’s been a wave of optimism in global markets, driven by President Trump’s comments on the potential end of the Israel-Iran conflict. It was also an historic day for corporate bond issuance in the US. The tide could be turning now though, as oil prices start to rise again this morning. Phil and Skye also examine the RBA’s hawkish stance following Andrew Hauser’s recent comments, and the latest results from the NAB Business Survey, which shows easing confidence amidst persistent capacity constraints. Finally, they look at China’s surprisingly strong trade data and the softening demand seen in the latest US Treasury bond auctions. US CPI tonight would normally be significant to markets, but it’s likely to be overtaken by events in the Middle East.

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Phil and NAB’s Sally Auld discuss the roller coaster ride of oil prices, which took a breather after G7 nations hinted at tapping into their strategic reserves. While this news offered a bit of temporary relief to the markets, it’s a short-term fix and markets will be driven by how long the conflict drags on for, and how long supply is blocked through the Strait of Hormuz. They also look at the inflationary impacts for Australia, the surprising resilience of the Aussie dollar as a commodity currency, and what shifting global trends mean for central banks heading into their next round of policy meetings.

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The global economy is facing a volatile "double whammy" as intensifying conflict in the Middle East drives oil prices toward the $100 mark whilst the US labour market shows unexpected signs of cooling. Friday's US jobs data shocked markets with a loss of 92,000 jobs against expectations of growth, pushing the unemployment rate up to 4.4%. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil today to discuss how, as Israel/US and Iran engage in retaliatory strikes on critical oil and desalination infrastructure, central banks are left in a precarious position: grappling with rising inflationary pressures from energy costs while weighing the need for rate cuts to support weakening domestic economies. With US inflation data and major bond auctions on the horizon, and the 250th anniversary of Adam Smith’s The Wealth of Nations serving as a backdrop, the "invisible hand" of the market appears increasingly gripped by geopolitical uncertainty.

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Celebrate International Women’s Day (this Sunday) with a deep dive into the senior ranks of Australian business as Phil talks with Anastasia Clarke, CFO of property group Charter Hall. Despite recent reports suggesting a decline in female finance chiefs, Anastasia offers a refreshing and candid perspective on her rise to the top, discussing the "grit and determination" required to navigate an ASX-listed career and the pivotal male mentorship that supported her along the way. From the challenges of balancing a high-stakes career with young children to the strategic shift of moving women into revenue-focused roles, this episode explores why diversity of thought isn't just a social goal—it's a driver of Charter Hall’s leap to $92 billion in funds under management. Whether you're interested in the future of the commercial property market or the "40:40:20" approach to executive leadership, this conversation is an essential listen for anyone looking to understand the modern blueprint for corporate success.

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Financial markets took a sharp risk-off turn overnight as escalating tensions between the US, Israel, and Iran dominated investor sentiment and pushed oil prices significantly higher. NAB’s Skye Masters breaks down the resulting surge in bond yields across Europe and the US, noting that central banks are pivoting their focus back to stubborn inflation risks. The conversation covers the shifting expectations for rate cuts, the impact of volatile energy supplies on the Eurozone, and a preview of tonight’s critical US non-farm payrolls report. Closer to home, they look at the softening in Australian household spending and China’s newly adjusted growth targets following the People’s Congress.

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NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the global market's resilience amidst escalating Middle East tensions, noting gains in the Nasdaq, S&P 500, and European stocks like the DAX. They dive into the volatility of the Asian markets, specifically South Korea’s KOSPI, which saw a 14% decline following an AI-driven frenzy. Key economic indicators from the US, including strong ISM Services data and a significant rise in export orders, are balanced against a widening gap with PMI figures. They also analyse the contrasting PMI reports from China, Australia's steady 2.6% GDP growth and softening household consumption, and look ahead to today’s timely monthly update on that consumption number.

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War escalation has torn through markets, driving oil sharply higher, smashing equities and knocking the Aussie to the bottom of the majors as global bond yields surge. With Iranian, Qatari and Iraqi output disrupted, tankers steering clear of the Strait of Hormuz and even Saudi refineries hit, the risk of a genuine energy shock has snapped into focus. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock has stoked talk of a near term rate rise, even as today’s Q4 GDP is set to undershoot the Bank’s own forecasts. Europe’s hotter than expected inflation print has revived ECB hike chatter. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil for a rundown on how markets are working their way through all this, mentioning the word stagflation. Today China’s PMIs and the US services ISM will give us a taste if how things were before things got out of hand in the Middle East.

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Phil and NAB’s Rodrigo Catril discuss the market turmoil following Operation Epic Fury, which has sent oil and gas prices soaring, with European gas prices surging more than 50% following a drone attack on Qatari production facilities. So, is this a short-term spike or a long-term inflationary threat? A massive "about-turn" in bond markets suggests a longer story, hence a shift in central bank rate-cut expectations. With President Trump facing low domestic approval for the move, the key question remains: will this conflict be resolved in weeks, or are we settling into a period of prolonged stagflation?

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Today NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to examine the market reaction to the weekend’s dramatic military strikes on Tehran. With the Straits of Hormuz effectively stalled by soaring insurance costs and geopolitical uncertainty, we analyse the immediate pressure on oil and gold alongside. Beyond the Middle East there’s the brewing "mini-Lehman" moment in the UK as mortgage lender Market Financial Solutions collapses amid fraud allegations, leaving major players like Barclays exposed. From the PBOC’s strategic move to curb the Renminbi's rise to a massive week of data—including Australian Q4 GDP, the US Payrolls report, and China’s National People’s Congress—we provide the roadmap for a week where risk is suddenly everywhere.

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This week Phil dives into the massive infrastructure powering the global AI revolution with Luke Mackinnon, Senior Vice President of NextDC and Managing Director for Asia. As tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon pour billions into data centres, NextDC is rapidly expanding its footprint to provide the "shovels" for this digital gold rush, specifically engineering high-density "AI factories" like the KL1 facility in Kuala Lumpur and TK1 in Tokyo. Mackinnon breaks down the intense technical demands of supporting the latest GPU superclusters, the high-stakes race for power and land, and why specialized Tier 4 infrastructure is the non-negotiable backbone for the next wave of sovereign and enterprise AI.

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NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk about the curious response to NVIDIA’s 94% profit surge, which wasn’t enough to satisfy demanding investors, even though it beat expectations. The US continues to build up its military hardware in the Middle East as US-Iran talks in Geneva head nowhere, keeping oil prices on edge. Closer to home, they discuss the latest Aussie Capex data — highlighting a boom in data centres and renewable energy investment — while checking the speed of the economic recovery in New Zealand.

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The Aussie dollar outshone most currencies again overnight. It’s now at multi-decade high against the Yen. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about the influence of yesterday’s CPI numbers and weakening of the US dollar. There’s also a brief look at the State of the Union Address, why the Yen is weakening further, the push and pull of oil prices and what next for tariffs. Aside from Q4 capex for Australia, it’s a low news day ahead, unless NVIDIA lights the touchpaper on tech stocks.

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Phil talks with NAB’s Skye Masters about a fairly quiet session for data and market action. President Trump’s 10% tariffs has sent ripples through the UK and EU, whilst the Yen has felt pressure following reports of political concern over further rate hikes, as well as China’s strategic export ban on critical minerals to several Japanese firms. There was a rebound in US consumer confidence driven largely by Republican voters, a tech-led rally in US equities ahead of NVIDIA’s results (still a day away), and the "open question" of rate cuts at the Bank of England. They also look ahead to Australia's monthly CPI release today, Michelle Bullock’s upcoming address, and Donald Trump’s (no doubt lengthy) State of the Union address.

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NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to dissect a classic "risk-off" shift in the global markets, marked by a retreat in US stocks and a pivot toward safe-haven assets. They explore the fallout from recent US Supreme Court rulings on trade policy, the persistent volatility surrounding the AI and software sectors, and shifting labor market expectations, highlighted in a speech nby Chris Waller overnight. Plus, the surprising resilience of the German business climate and the strengthening of the Chinese Renminbi as markets return from the Lunar New Year break.

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Phil sits down with NAB’s Rodrigo Catril to break down a chaotic weekend in US trade policy following the Supreme Court's ruling against previous tariff structures and the administration's subsequent pivot to a global 15% tariff. They discuss the ripple effects across global markets—including a surprisingly resilient Aussie dollar—while analysing a significant miss in US Q4 GDP and the implications of rising core PCE on future Fed easing. They also touch on the latest global PMI data, showing unexpected strength in the UK and Germany, and preview a busy week ahead featuring Australian CPI and insights from Fed officials on the economic impact of AI.

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In this weekend’s podcast, Dr. Blair Chapman, Senior Economist at SEEK, previews the upcoming SEEK AI Gauge Report, highlighting that while overall job ad volumes have recently declined, demand for AI-specific skills is surging. Chapman notes a "broadening" of AI demand beyond the technical IT sector into fields like marketing and content creation, where approximately one in 20 ads now request AI proficiency. While the podcast addresses common fears of job displacement, particularly in entry-level white-collar roles, Chapman emphasizes that AI is currently augmenting rather than replacing most positions and creating new specialized roles such as AI ethics officers and AI content trainers. Ultimately, the discussion suggests that "AI fluency" is becoming a baseline requirement across the Australian workforce to drive productivity and navigate the evolving labour market.

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Australia’s unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, reinforcing the case for a potential RBA rate hike in May as the labour market remains tighter than expected. Meanwhile, oil prices have surged above $71.80 a barrel as the U.S. bolsters its air power in the Middle East to levels not seen since 2003, creating a volatile backdrop of geopolitical risk. While the U.S. continues to show economic resilience with a strong labor market, a record-high trade deficit and cautious outlooks from major retailers like Walmart are tempering global market optimism. NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to talk through the overnight market news.

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Things are heating up in the Middle East, with Iran getting itself ready in case talks fail. As a result oil prices have moved up sharply, with Brent back over $70 a barrel. While the geopolitical scene is tense, tech stocks are bouncing back, perhaps using a set of moderately optimistic second-tier data as the reason. Meanwhile NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through UK inflatioin, which has cooled to 3%, and Aussie wages holding steady at 3.4%. Australian employment numbers are out today and, to top it all off, the tech world is bracing for Mark Zuckerberg’s landmark testimony on whether Meta’s algorithms are intentionally addictive—an outcome that could have a big impact on share prices. Gavin also manages to sneek in the FOMC minutes, just released.

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A choppy session for equities, bonds and energy, as Iran went from powder keg to hopes of peace. As NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says the talks have a long way to go and oil is still well down despite the switch in sentiment. Phil and Rodrigo also break down the pound’s 0.6% slide following a rise in UK unemployment to 5.2% and they dive into the RBA’s latest minutes, which showed a hold was given consideration. There’s also discussion on Canada’s "slow grind" disinflation and a look ahead to today’s Australian Wage Price Index and the RBNZ rate decision.

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Trading was thin with holidays in the US and Asia on Monday, but there was still data around. NAB’s Sally Auld talks to Phil about jittery GDP figures from Japan and the mixed industrial signals coming out of Europe. They also weigh up the latest Bank of America fund manager survey, which shows high investor optimism despite a lack of downside protection, and touch on why geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are keeping a floor under oil prices.

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Phil catches up with NAB’s Ken Crompton to break down the fallout from a cooler-than-expected 0.2% US inflation print, which sent bond yields tumbling and left the US 2-year yield at its lowest level since mid-2022. They dig into the reality of the Fed’s waiting game, the New York Fed data showing that US consumers and firms are footing 90% of the tariff bill, and why the "AI vigilantes" are continuing to eye tech stocks with a bit more scepticism. From the Bank of England’s internal split over rate hikes to a busy week ahead featuring Japan's Q4 GDP and fresh inflation numbers from the UK and Canada, it’s a deep dive into whether the global disinflation trend is truly taking hold or hitting a snag.

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Phil grills BNZ Head of Research Stephen Toplis on which central bank played the inflation fight better — the RBNZ with its early hammer, or the RBA with its softer touch. They tear into NZ’s slow growth, a labour market now showing 5.4% unemployment, population pressures, housing distortions, and whether China’s slowdown or Trump‑era geopolitics pose the bigger threat. Plus: can NZ keep leaning on agriculture, is tech finally a real opportunity, and how do the two neighbours stack up on growth, risks and untapped upside.

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US markets are wobbling again as the AI boom shows its darker side — soaring investment costs on one hand, and the threat of software-sector disruption on the other — dragging the NASDAQ and S&P sharply lower. Bond yields are softer, commodities are sliding, and the Aussie has dipped below 71 US cents. In the UK, GDP is technically growing but only just, while Japan enjoys a rare week of political calm that’s helped steady JGBs and lift the yen. At home, the RBA’s Sarah Hunter has doubled down on the message that full employment and inflation remain uncomfortably intertwined. And with US CPI due today, markets are bracing for whether the Fed’s disinflation path is still intact. Phil talks it all through with NAB’s Ray Attrill.

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A surprise surge in Australian home loans has everyone asking whether it’s a one off policy quirk or fresh fuel for another RBA hike, while a headline grabbing jump in US payrolls looks far less convincing once you see where the jobs actually are. Add in firmer oil on Iran worries, a flat US dollar, a stronger Aussie, and the UK bracing for GDP growth that’s technically positive but barely, and you’ve got plenty for NAB’s Taylor Nugent to unpack on today’s podcast.

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Global markets are still grinding higher, but the real action is in bonds and currencies, with US Treasury yields tumbling after flat retail sales and softer price data, and the yen staging the day’s standout move, edging further away from the intervention zone. Commodities are drifting lower, Bitcoin continues its long slide from last year’s peak, and all eyes now turn to an unusually timed mid‑week non‑farm payrolls. At home, the NAB Business Survey shows conditions easing but confidence nudging up, capacity pressures softening, and consumer sentiment taking another hit alongside a sharp drop in building approvals. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to unpack what falling yields say about Fed expectations, why the yen is suddenly lively, and what the latest Australian data could mean for the RBA’s next move.

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Global markets are in a buoyant mood, with US and European equities pushing higher, the US dollar sliding and lifting the Aussie above 70.9 US cents, and commodities from gold to oil on the rise — but the real story today is at home, where Australia’s household spending remains 5% higher than a year ago. Will today’s NAB business survey continues to show strong trading conditions and high-capacity utilisation, reinforcing the question of whether the economy is simply running too hot for the RBA’s comfort. With US markets bracing for retail sales, inflation and jobs data, Japan settling after Sanae Takaichi’s decisive election win, and UK assets wobbling on political jitters, Rodrigo Catril joins us to unpack whether Australia’s resilience is now a policy problem.

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A huge week of US data lies ahead — payrolls, CPI and retail spending in the same week for the first time — but for now optimism is winning out, with US equities roaring back on Friday despite lingering worries over the scale of AI investment. The S&P jumped 2%, the NASDAQ a touch more, and the Dow hit a fresh high, while the US dollar slipped and commodities pushed higher, from Brent to gold to Bitcoin. Markets are still weighing softer job openings and rising claims against Fed Vice Chair Jefferson’s view that policy is already near neutral, and in Japan the likely landslide win for Sanae Takaichi raises fresh questions about how quickly the BoJ might move on rates. Closer to home, the Aussie dollar is back above 70 US cents and household spending data is due today. The gains of the previous two months are not expected to be maintained.

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This weekend we’re looking at Minotaur Capital — the global equities fund run by just two people and a whole lot of AI. Armina “Arms” Rosenberg and Thomas Rice launched the firm in late 2023 with a simple idea: replace the analyst floor with generative intelligence capable of scanning markets, news flow and pricing anomalies at a scale no human team can match. It’s worked so far — a notional million dollars at the start of 2024 would have grown to more than $1.43 million by year’s end — but the bigger question is whether this is the future of funds management, where algorithms and AI agents do the heavy lifting and humans steer the thematics. We talk to Arms about her path from JP Morgan to Atlassian to co‑founding Minotaur, how their proprietary engine finds mispriced companies, why they’ve beaten the MSCI hardly touching the Magnificent Seven, and what the next generation of AI‑driven research looks like.

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US markets slid again overnight as tech stocks took another hit, with Alphabet’s hefty AI‑driven capex plans spooking investors, while softer US jobs data raised fresh questions about next week’s non‑farm payrolls and the Fed’s path for rate cuts. Treasury yields fell, commodities weakened sharply, and the Aussie slipped below 69.8 US cents. In Europe, both the Bank of England and ECB held rates, even as UK inflation is expected to hit target by April and Eurozone inflation already sits below 2%. Locally, Australia’s trade balance improved, and all eyes turn to RBA Governor Michelle Bullock’s parliamentary testimony today. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins the show, failing to appreciate the cultural significance of Pascall’s Pineapple Lumps on Waitangi Day.

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Tech stocks are sliding again, with AMD’s weak outlook triggering a broader rethink on AI spending and dragging the NASDAQ lower. Ken Crompton says markets are questioning whether AI revenues can keep pace with the investment surge, ahead of Alphabet’s results tonight and NVIDIA later this month. Energy is the standout as oil climbs on renewed Iran–US tensions and delays to planned talks. US data stay firm — services ISM strengthened, ADP was soft, and the BLS has reset its calendar with JOLTS today and payrolls next Wednesday. Europe’s inflation eased, the ECB and BoE are set to hold, NZ unemployment rose on higher participation, and China’s private‑sector services PMI improved. The USD is firmer, the AUD is softer, oil is up, and global equities are split between tech weakness and energy strength.

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The RBA’s widely expected rate hike to 3.85% stole the show, but it was the sharper tone in the Statement on Monetary Policy and Michelle Bullock’s press conference that really moved markets, with the Bank now warning of broader‑based inflation pressures and pushing its return‑to‑target timeline all the way out to mid‑2028. The Aussie dollar surged past 70 US cents as equities softened and bond yields climbed. Meanwhile gold has bounced back a little, the US dollar slipped, the Fed’s loan officer survey showed mixed credit demand, Europe awaits fresh CPI, China’s services PMI is due, and with Washington still in partial shutdown the ADP report is the only US jobs data we’ll see this week, apart from what we can glean from the US services ISM out later. Skye Masters joins Phil to talk through it all.

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With markets all but certain the RBA will lift rates today, attention turns to the Bank’s updated forecasts. Meanwhile traders navigate a week without US jobs data thanks to Washington’s partial shutdown. A stronger US dollar, buoyant equities and rising bond yields set the backdrop, alongside a hawkish market reaction to Kevin Warsh’s Fed nomination and a punchy US ISM showing growth in orders and production but weaker employment. Oil has slumped, gold has tumbled, China’s private‑sector PMI has surprised on the upside, and the US–India tariff shift barely moved the dial. 

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Today’s episode digs into the market whiplash triggered by President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair — a move that nudged the US dollar higher, knocked the Aussie lower, and sent precious metals into a full‑blown plunge, even as equities and bonds delivered a more mixed, almost reluctant response. We unpack whether the gold and silver surge was really about Fed independence, revisit Warsh’s crisis‑era credentials and his scepticism of QE, and explore what his arrival means for balance‑sheet policy, rate‑cut expectations, and the future of Stephen Miran. Alongside that, we scan a messy global backdrop: China’s PMIs slipping below 50, Europe surprising with stronger GDP, US manufacturing beating forecasts, Japan’s inflation still too sticky for the BoJ’s comfort, and Washington wrestling with a partial government shutdown. Plus, a look ahead to a packed central‑bank week — RBA, BoE, ECB — and a Middle East update that has US officials signalling caution despite the President’s military build‑up.

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Oil has been trending lower lately. Rory Johnston says its primarily down to an expanding oil glut, which the market expects will be ultimately corrected. In the meantime, the impact of the glut has been subsumed by a variety of other factors, such as sanctions on Russia, the attack on Venezuela, uncertainty over Iran and such like. Without these distractions and the assumption of a supply correction Rory reckons oil prices would be sub $50, if not sub $40.

Rory is an oil market researcher, a lecturer at the University of Toronto’s Munks school of global affairs and public policy, and founder of Commodity Context, that provides deep data-driven analysis of the oil markets (commoditycontext.com). He joins Phil to talk through what is influencing oil prices and what he expects to happen this year.

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Microsoft was hammered overnight on fears it’s pushing too hard, too fast on AI investment, a sharp contrast to Meta, which is spending heavily too but can point to AI‑driven ad revenue as proof it’s paying off; add in rising speculation that Washington is preparing to strike Iran unless a new nuclear deal materialises, a tension clearly visible in a 3% jump in oil, while iron ore is climbing on China’s effective scrapping of its property‑sector borrowing limits. NAB’s Rodrigo Catriul joins Phil to talk through all this and more, with a lot of data due today, including Australian private‑sector credit.

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The Fed kept rates on hold, with two dissenters calling for a 25bp cut, but the real question for investors is how long the central bank stays on pause after three cuts already. NAB’s Sally Auld unpacked a statement that kept the door open to further easing but gave no hint of timing, against stubborn inflation and falling jobless claims. Australia’s Q4 CPI surprised on the upside to many, heightening expectations for an RBA hike next week, yet yields slipped. Geopolitics simmered, with US naval deployments raising questions about Iran and adding fuel to the gold rally. Currency chatter centred on yen intervention rumours — quashed by Scott Bessent — while the Bank of Canada held steady amid US trade uncertainty. And with Microsoft and Meta reporting after the bell, markets braced for another test of the AI‑driven tech narrative.

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The dollar has weakened again, lifting the Aussie and most majors, while oil, equities and spot gold all pushed higher in a broadly risk‑positive session. Bond moves are mild but yields are edging up across several markets, and silver is having a wild swing lower. Taylor Nugent joins us as the NAB Business Survey shows a rebound in conditions and confidence, capacity utilisation easing only slightly, and Q4 CPI likely to come in above the RBA’s forecast — all reinforcing the chance of a February rate hike. With the Fed tonight, a hawkish tone could unsettle markets given sticky inflation, softer jobs data and a sharp drop in US consumer confidence, alongside rising political tension and the risk of a partial government shutdown. We also have the Bank of Canada, NZ filled‑jobs data and a huge slate of tech earnings still to come.

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The US dollar is on the back foot, falling to its lowest level in four months, the Yen is clawing back territory, precious metals are surging to fresh highs, and the Aussie is the strongest it’s been in years — all setting the stage for a busy week ahead. Attention now turns to whether talk of coordinated action between Japan and the New York Fed signals more of a push for a weaker Dollar and stronger Yen — even as the BoJ remains reluctant to signal rate hikes. Gavin Friend joins us to unpack the latest market moves, the influence of stronger US data and the political uncertainty from Washington, including the real possibility of a US government shutdown this week. Domestically, the NAB Business Survey lands today, ahead of tomorrow’s Q4 CPI, with US consumer confidence also on the slate

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Tom Holland, deputy global research director at Gavekal, argues that Donald Trump’s flurry of geopolitical moves — from abducting Nicolás Maduro to threatening Iran and making claims on Greenland — is best read as strategic signalling aimed at China rather than random headline chasing. By disrupting Venezuelan and potentially Iranian oil flows, Washington is reminding Beijing how exposed it is to imported energy, while the sudden fixation on Greenland reflects US fears of China and Russia expanding into an increasingly accessible Arctic. Layered on top is a deep contradiction in Trump’s promise of “energy dominance”: US drillers need high prices to invest, while Trump promises voters cheap fuel. Markets, meanwhile, have largely tuned out of the geopolitical noise. The result, Tom says, is a mix of genuine strategic messaging and Trump’s trademark “flood the zone” chaos — a pattern that will shape, and probably destabilise, the months ahead.

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Markets faced a whiplash day of geopolitics and data, as President Trump’s abrupt Greenland U‑turn steadies equity markets even while uncertainty keeps gold surging. Phil and NAB’s Skye Masters unpack a stronger Aussie dollar, rising local bond yields, and the surprisingly sharp drop in Australia’s unemployment rate that has markets leaning even further toward a February RBA hike. They sweep through firmer US spending and GDP revisions, falling jobless claims, softer NZ retail numbers, and a big day of global PMIs, CPI prints, and the Bank of Japan’s delicate dance with a weakening yen.

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President Trump used his Davos address to insist there is “no going back” on his push to acquire Greenland, ruling out military action but signalling that more tariffs on Europe look inevitable — a stance that has kept gold at fresh highs even as broader markets remain relatively calm. Currencies and bonds were quiet overnight, with the Aussie dollar firmer and JGB yields retracing, while US equities stabilised after yesterday’s sharp fall. Oil is little changed, but the IEA warns that rising surplus stocks will keep prices capped despite stronger non‑OECD demand this year. Hopes of a Ukraine breakthrough faded with President Zelensky absent from Davos, and the US Supreme Court appeared sceptical over the case to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook, hinting the central bank may not be as heavily reshaped as expected. US pending home sales slumped in December, UK inflation was mixed, and attention now turns to today’s Australian employment data and US releases including core PCE, income and spending.

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Markets are on edge this morning as the Greenland fallout continues to reverberate through currencies, bonds, metals and equities, with fears that US–European trade and intelligence ties may suffer lasting damage. Tensions escalated as the President revealed a private text exchange with President Macron and threatened 200% tariffs on French wine and champagne. Meanwhile, Japan has endured a sharp bond sell off —its “Liz Truss moment” — after concerns that Sanae Takaichi’s proposed tax cuts are unfunded. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through a session that has seen commodity prices are surging, equities weaker and bond yields are higher across major markets.

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President Trump’s renewed push on Greenland and fresh tariff threats against Europe have markets bracing for possible retaliation, with EU leaders signalling they may hold firm rather than concede — even hinting at using their anti‑coercion powers, despite German hesitation. Precious metals are surging as investors hedge the “Greenland crisis”, while currencies and bonds move only modestly in a session thinned by the US holiday. European equities are weaker, China’s latest data remain soft, and Canada’s inflation mix adds to global CPI nerves ahead of the US print. With Davos only just underway — and memories of last year’s sharply anti‑EU Trump video address still fresh — the next 24 hours will determine whether this escalates into a trade war or proves to be little more than a storm in a teacup. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk through it all.

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Markets open the week a little snowblind, with investors unsure how to process President Donald Trump’s renewed interest in Greenland and the threat of tariffs on European countries that oppose the idea. NAB’s Sally Auld joins Phil to sift through the market reaction, alongside shifting expectations for the next Fed chair — with Kevin Hassett fading and Kevin Warsh now the frontrunner — plus a firmer US dollar, softer Aussie, weaker equities, rising bond yields and a yen that’s clawing back amid talk of possible intervention. China’s GDP and industrial production are due, so it Canada’s CPI, with the US closed for Martin Luther King Jr Day and the World Economic Forum kicking off in Davos.

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Australia’s housing market keeps getting more expensive, yet the real issue isn’t just how many homes we build — it’s how slowly they are changing hands. Dr Nicola Powell, chief economist at Domain, says turnover has become a structural drag, creating inefficiencies that stem far more from policy settings than from raw supply. Even with immigration easing, demand still outpaces movement, and rising prices continue to inflate the value of the national housing stock far faster than the number of dwellings themselves. Building approvals have jumped, apartment plans are surging, and forecasts point to further price gains in 2026, but the deeper question remains: why isn’t the market slowing? From interest‑rate dynamics and construction costs to population shifts and the FOMO factor, today’s episode digs into the mechanics behind a market that pushes prices ever high, well beyond the bounds of affordability.

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The mood in markets has brightened as tensions around Iran appear to have eased, with President Trump signalling a softer military stance, and attention has swung back to stronger‑than‑expected US data — lower jobless claims, upbeat regional manufacturing surveys and a solid equity rebound led by tech and small caps. Oil has slumped sharply, bond yields are higher in the US and UK, and the US dollar is firmer, while the UK has surprised with a 0.3% rise in November GDP that keeps the quarter out of the red. With a quieter day ahead — NZ PMI, US industrial production and the NAHB housing index, NAB’s Gavin Friend makes sense of a week that ends much calmer than it began.

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A cautious, uneasy calm hangs over markets this morning, with no ruling yet from the US Supreme Court on tariffs and no military response against Iran, even as the US and UK quietly evacuate personnel from a Qatar base. Equities have stumbled, led by sharp falls in the S&P and NASDAQ, while investors rotate out of big tech and into small caps and precious metals, pushing gold, silver, copper and tin to fresh records. Bond yields are lower across the board, the US dollar is softer, and commodities are firmer, all underscoring a clear risk‑off tone. China has posted a striking US$1.2 trillion annual trade surplus on stronger‑than‑expected export growth, US retail sales have surprised on the upside, and Australia’s job vacancies continue their slow drift lower. We also touch on mixed US bank earnings, improving NZ labour data, upcoming regional Fed surveys and UK GDP and industrial production out today.

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A softer run of US inflation has kept hopes of further rate cuts alive, even as markets juggle mixed earnings, fragile consumer sentiment in Australia, signs of recovery in New Zealand, and a surge in Japanese yields driven by election rumours. Commodities are climbing on geopolitical tension, with President Trump’s “help is on its way” message to Iranian protesters fuelling speculation of US action and adding to the broader sense of unease.

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President Trump has been directing sharp words at Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve, while the Fed Chair has pushed back, suggesting that any legal action against him is politically motivated. It’s the kind of confrontation with the central bank that many had anticipated, yet markets have taken it in their stride so far.

Where markets have reacted more noticeably is the proposal for a 10% cap on credit‑card interest rates — though this may prove to be another policy idea that makes noise without ever becoming reality.

We also look ahead to US CPI, and unpack a couple of Australian data points: consumer confidence, household spending, and what they collectively signal for the RBA. If further confirmation was needed, yesterday’s numbers strengthen the case for another rate rise — potentially as early as next month.

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US rate cut expectations are starting to erode, even as jobs growth softens. Markets are beginning to question whether weaker payrolls really matter if inflation refuses to fall — and this week’s CPI and PPI will be critical in deciding that. But, as NAB's Ray Attrill points out, it depends on Trump's nomination for Fed chair. The delayed Supreme Court ruling on tariffs now looks set for Wednesday, adding another layer of uncertainty. And here at home, fresh Australian consumer spending data lands today, giving an early read on household momentum heading into year end. Welcome to 2026, which promises to be just as firey as President Trump’s first year in office.

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Australia has managed to steer its own course through a turbulent 2025. Taylor Nugent explains how the RBA resisted the urge to slash rates early in the year, instead holding firm as inflation proved more stubborn than expected. That stance kept the economy balanced while other central banks lurched between easing and tightening. Compared with New Zealand’s harsher approach and the US’s tariff‑driven dilemmas, Australia’s policy mix looks measured – not perfect, but enough to avoid the extremes.

Rodrigo Catril adds that the Aussie dollar has been resilient, even if it hasn’t fully matched the US dollar’s swings. Its fortunes are now more tied to China and Asian sentiment than Wall Street, and with local rates set to rise while the Fed eases, he sees the currency heading towards 70 cents.

Ken Crompton rounds out the picture with bonds, noting strong demand for Australian debt and a widening yield gap with the US. Together, the NAB team sketch a story of a country that hasn’t soared, but hasn’t stumbled either – Australia has held its own.

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Markets seem to be heading to the end of the year on a fairly steady note, with currencies little changed today and equities pushing higher . Bond yields are mixed, oil is nudging back above $60 a barrel, and silver’s up and down like a yo‑yo.

For our final morning edition of the year, NAB’s Gavin Friend joins us from London to unpack the latest central bank moves: the Bank of England’s razor‑thin vote to cut rates, the ECB holding firm, and the Bank of Japan poised to lift rates to their highest since 1995. We also touch on Norges Bank and the Riksbank staying put, US inflation data and jobless claims, and a surprisingly strong GDP print out of New Zealand.

Plenty to chew over before the Christmas break — from hawkish cuts to resilient economies, and what it all means for the Fed, fiscal policy, and the year ahead.

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It’s a big Thursday, with markets bracing for the BoE and ECB after UK CPI surprised with outright deflation. German sentiment disappointed again, and Japan’s stronger exports added to the case for a BoJ hike tomorrow. All eyes are on the November U.S. CPI release later today. Equities remain under pressure with no Santa Claus rally in sight, oil prices edge higher amid Trump’s Russian tanker threats, and silver hits fresh highs. Meanwhile, New Zealand shows signs of recovery with improved confidence and GDP prospects. Ray Attrill joins for his final time in 2025.

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A new rate call from NAB: the RBA will move rates higher twice in the first half of next year. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent before they dissect the latest non‑farm payrolls data from the US for October and November. Plus, the mixed picture in the latest global PMIs. The surprise outsider was the UK, the only place to show an improvement in services and manufacturing numbers. That’s not going to stop the Bank of England, though, which is expected to cut rates this week. We are a day away from the central bank deluge.

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China’s economy is still struggling to find momentum, with retail sales growth slipping to its weakest pace since 2022 and investment dropping sharply. Property prices are sliding too, adding to the lack of confidence, and oil markets are feeling the knock‑on effect. Japan, on the other hand, looks brighter: the Tankan survey beat expectations, strengthening the case for a rate hike later this week. Meanwhile, Europe’s industrial production is picking up and Canada surprised with outright deflation in November.

Today the focus is on the late running US jobs data for November – finally something up to date, although we’ll have to guess what happened in October.

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It’s a pivotal week for global markets as central banks take centre stage. The long‑awaited, up‑to‑date U.S. Non‑Farm Payrolls report finally lands, just days after the Fed’s decision — a timing mismatch that leaves investors scrambling. In the UK, GDP figures arrived with sharper precision, revealing an economy sliding into decline right before the Bank of England meets. And across the globe, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, and others are lining up with their own policy calls. NAB's Sally Auld talks us through the busy week ahead.

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NAB’s trading division, headed by Tim McCaughey, facilitates trades requested by a range of clients, from hedge funds, through to corporates and pension funds. So how does it work? Tim says it works like a grocery store - they buy the goods, add a margin and sell on. Except its not a grocery store, its trading rooms in Australia, London, New York and Asia. But just like a retailer, the secret is knowing what to buy, how to price it and how long to hang onto it.

Phil tries to pry into how Tim and his team balance the risk in all this buying and selling, how the liquidity is managed, and the role of AI and algorithms in today’s trading environment. And has President Trump been good or bad for traders? Tim talks us through how things went on Liberation Day.

A fascinating chat, even if Tim refuses to give away the contents of his secret sauce.

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Australian government bond yields have been surging to multi year highs as speculation mounts about a rate rise early in the new year. But yields fell a little yesterday and overnight after weaker jobs numbers. NAB’s Gavin Friend says yields have fallen more widely as a response to the FOMC meeting yesterday, with questions about whether we will only see one cut next year. The US trade deficit fell again - is this a sign President Trump’s policies are working? At zero percent, the Swiss Bank decided they can’t go any lower. And UK GDP is out today - will it be as gloomy as an English winter’s day?

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The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 basis points, its third consecutive cut this year, but there were several dissenters. Sally Auld talks through the decision, the statement and the dot plot, which now forecasts just one cut next year. Will that even be necessary? The Bank of Canada left rates on hold, whilst Christine Lagarde suggested that growth forecasts in Europe might be revised up. Sally suggests all three central banks could be reaching the end of their easing cycle, if they are not there already. Today, Australia’s employment numbers will be a focus, with trade data for Canada and the US still hopelessly out of date.

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The RBA’s worry about rising capacity utilisation has increased the possibility of a rate hike as soon as February. We dig into what the NAB business survey revealed and how traders are pricing the odds. Overseas the focus is on the Fed early tomorrow morning (expected to cut) and the Bank of Canada overnight (expected to hold). Polus, what are the latest JOLTs numbers telling us about the US labour market?

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The RBA meets today — no big moves expected, but markets are watching closely for hints about when rates might rise. Over in Europe, bond yields climbed after an ECB policymaker signalled that the era of easing is over and the next direction is up. Meanwhile in the U.S., policy rates are still falling — though the debate is how far they’ll go. Even Kevin Hassett, tipped as Trump’s likely pick for the Fed, is cautioning against too many cuts next year. And don’t forget today’s NAB business survey: it could reveal fresh insights on capacity utilization, the very metric that rattled the RBA last time.

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It’s the RBA and the Fed this week. We know what to expect- the Fed is likely to cut rates, the RBA its likely to be on hold. We’re also expecting hawkish commentary, particularly from the RBA. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through the impact on bond yields, with Aussies10 year yields up 1.37% over the last week. Bond yields in Japan have continued to rise on the expectation of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan, and in Canada after a sharp fall in the unemployment rate on Friday. 

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Australia has managed what many other economies haven’t. We have brought down inflation without driving the economy into recession. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a direct contrast to the RBNZ approach, which was to hit the economy hard, and slower demand would mean there was lots of spare capacity, making it easier for the economy to re-establish itself. The RBA approach has been much more softly-softly, which means jobs have been maintained and growth has continued. The problem is, there’s much less spare capacity. If we see too much growth, then prices could rise, forcing the RBA to lift rates to slow things down. Is that where we are now? Can you slow the economy with just one rate rise? Sally talks to Phil about what could happen next.

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Bond yields rose in Australia and Japan yesterday and overnight. In Japan 10-year JGBs reached 1.94%, the highest level since 2007. NAB’s Skye Masters says it relates to the continued expectation of a rate hike by the BoJ, and the higher yields have created a buying opportunity for investors. Yields have risen in Australia as household spending for October came in higher than expecting, suggesting the RBA might set a hawkish tone to their next meeting, indicating a rate hike is coming sooner than many have been expecting.

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US Treasury yields fell after the ADP jobs number came in weaker than expected. Normally, perhaps, people wouldn’t pay too much attention — they’re often wrong — but when it’s all you’ve got, it matters. It’s another reason for a rate cut by the Fed next week.

Meanwhile, Aussie GDP also came in weaker than expected… though maybe strong in the right places. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to look at the implications of that, and they decipher the latest global services PMIs and look ahead to the release of Australia’s trade balance this morning.

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Markets have a tiny bit more risk appetite today, which has helped push US equities higher and helped Bitcoin resume its rise to new horizons (perhaps). The Yen lost a large chunk of yesterday’s gains, but JGB yields remain high, alongside expectations for a BoJ rate hike. At home, NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the latest GDP partials will do little to change the expectation for a 2.2% rise, year on year, a little higher than the RBA is forecasting. And Michelle Bullock fronts up to the senate economics committee.

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Japan’s bond yields pushed much higher, to levels not seen since the GFC after Gov Ueda signalled that a rate hike for December really was on the cards. After many months with inflation above their target range Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril what’s changed? And how much global contagion have we seen from Japan’s bond sell off.

Cryptocurrencies took a particularly big hit overnight, and US equities ended their rally, with a weaker than expected ISM manufacturing read. Today GDP partials for Australia and NZ’s terms of trade are amongst the highlights.

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For all the volatility that we saw in November we actually finished the month with the Australian dollar and US equities back where they started from. There have been movements in precious metals however, with gold bouncing back and silver hitting an all-time high on Friday. NAB's Ray Attrill actual joins Phil to talk through the latest market moves and the latest data including German inflation, Canada's GDP, Tokyo CPI and China's PMIs. They also look ahead to Australia's inflation numbers this week.

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Australia is the third biggest exporter of cotton and has a reputation for quality. But Adam Key, CEO of Cotton Australia, says the differential might be changing as other producers lift their game. We do have the advantage, though, that we produce some of the highest yields in the world, but that is being challenged. Liz Stott is Chair of Cotton Australia and is a farmer from Leeton in the Riverina. She says there are years when there just isn’t enough water and production has to be cut back. It’s also has higher input costs than many other agricultural products which makes it harder to make a profit. But for the communities where cotton is grown the success of these farms is vital for local employment and supporting industries.

This week Phil talks to Liz and Adam about the challenges for Australia’s cotton industry, and how Trump’s America is adding to the problem. But the answer rests with Australia’s sustainability credentials. 

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Thanksgiving might be a US celebration, but it seems Australia and New Zealand both have a lot to be thankful for, unless you were hoping for lower interest rates. NZ’s retail sales yesterday were higher than expected, and business confidence was also strong. In Australia private new capital expenditure was high – reminiscent of the mining boom early this century, says NAB’s Sally Auld. Meanwhile, equity and bond markets in the US were closed for Thanksgiving, and with an early close today it might be another quiet session to end the week. 

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Three central banks close to the end of their easing cycle. A hawkish cut from the RBNZ yesterday could well be the last. The same could well apply to the RBA after yesterday’s monthly CPI came in higher than anticipated. But the Bank of England might well be ready to cut, as markets accepted more fiscal headroom and a reduction to the supply of 30-year gilts. The public response is less jubilant, particularly as the freeze on tax thresholds is not being extended to a 10-year run. NAB’s Gavin Friend talks through a busy day.

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US equities are on the rise, with AI behind a chunk of it, helped by enthusiasm for Alphabet’s new chip, which can do marvellous thing apparently. But in US consumer-land demand is slowing, if September’s retail sales are anything to go by. Of course that was a while ago now, so more up to date records, like the Fed’s Beige Book tonight, will be scrutinised more than normal perhaps. Markets also responded to further speculation that Kevin Hassett will become the Fed chair next year, which could see interest rates pushed lower. Today Australia’s first monthly CPI report is out, the RBNZ makes a decision, and the UK budget is bound to upset someone and create some market volatility, whatever they decide.

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It might be thanksgiving this week, but it seems tech investors have their eyes set closer to Christmas, with renewed hopes of a December rate cut. Words from Christopher Waller added to the hope. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the moves in shares is quite a remarkable sensitivity, which has not been reflected in bonds or currencies. The Aussie hasn’t seen its usual bounce as US sentiment picks up. Delayed (and out of date) data today includes US retail sales and PPIs

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Last week was a bad one for US equities and the Australian dollar. It was even worse for Bitcoin, but NAB’s Skye Masters says it recovered over the weekend, so if you believe it’s a bellwether for equities this week could get off to a better start. Equities had already climbed on Friday as the Fed’s John Williams talked up the chance of a rate cut in December. It’s a relatively quiet week, with the US off for Thanksgiving. Locally the RBNZ meets and Australian CPI is released.

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NAB’s biennial Super Insights Survey was published this week, co-authored by Morning Call regulars Ray Attrill and Rodrigo Catril. They join Phil on this week’s podcast to talk about it, alongside Mike Symonds, the director of NAB’s Currency Overlay Solutions Group.

One key takeout of the survey is that Australian super funds now invest more overseas than they do domestically and that ratio will increase over time. On the podcast we look at where that money is going, and the impact President Trump’s agenda has had. What are the key thematics that are influencing investment decisions? How much are funds hedging back to the Australian dollar, and how do they manage liquidity in these turbulent times?

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What do equity markets want? NVIDIA yesterday delivered strong earnings and talked up the opportunity. ‘We’ve entered the virtuous cycle of AI’, their CEO said yesterday. After some initial enthusiasm, US shares fell today, including a 1.5% drop in NVIDIA’s price. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the caution in equities as well as deciphering a mix of jobs data, including the not-so-monthly on-farm payrolls, and a dump of weekly jobless claims. However you decipher those numbers it seems markets are increasingly expecting no move form the Fed in December. Today is PMIs day - a chance to see the comparative strengths of the US, Europe and UK.

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 Nothing seems to be quite hitting the spot. Our podcast is too early today to bring you the NVIDIA earnings results, which have left equities in no man’s land this week. We did get a chance to glimpse the latest Fed minutes before we hit the stop button though.

The other news this morning is that the November non-farm payrolls number will be delayed, meaning there will be no other report beyond September’s delayed release tonight, ahead of the December meeting. The data is just too late, and the Fed continues to fly blind.

And oil prices have fallen over fears there’s too much oil.  A resolution to the Russia Ukraine conflict, which is again making headlines, could add to that downward pressure.   

NAB’s Gavin Friend in London joins Phil to talk through all of this, plus UK inflation and Australian wages data.

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Markets are nervous ahead of NVIDIA earnings around this time tomorrow. The only real moves have been in equities. NAB’s Ray Attrill says, for once, the Aussie dollar hasn’t felt the brunt of the risk-off sentiment.

We’ve also been seeing the first splattering of jobs data. The non-farm payrolls data tomorrow will be for September. ADP’s numbers for September were up, but overnight we saw their weekly numbers showing weekly falls through October. Weekly jobless claims were quietly added to a Bureau of Labour research database showing recent claims had not moved significantly since before the shutdown.

The RBA minutes yesterday reaffirmed concerns over capacity constraints, with the wage price index released today along with UK CPI numbers.

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There have been no major market moves overnight as investors wait for the non-farm payrolls data on Thursday and NVIDIA earnings middle of the week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk about how the potential reaction to each, as well as today’s fall in the Yen after Japan’s soft GDP read. Plus, Canada’s CPI, the better-than-expected NY Fed’s Empire State manufacturing index and an upgrade to the EU’s growth forecasts. It’s another relatively quiet session ahead before the big numbers start trickling in.

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President Trump announced a relaxing on beef tariffs, alongside other food produce, to tackle cost of living pressures for US shoppers. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s not necessarily good news for Australian farmers because it potentially reduces our tariff advantage, which has seen a sizeable increase in Australia beef exports to the US this year.

Meanwhile, the US data drought officially finishes on Thursday when September’s non-farm payrolls data is released. Fed speakers have been continuing to sound hawkish, opening the potential for no cut in December.

Phil and Taylor also discuss how markets are reacting to the UK’s  budget uncertainty, China’s activity data on Friday and what to look out for this week, including Australian wages data on Wednesday.

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Historically America’s big-tech firms have seemed like a safe bet for investors. They had strong revenue streams, and they were ploughing profits back into innovative ideas for future revenue growth. That’s changed since the pandemic with the rapid growth of AI, with firms embarking on debt-fuelled expansion in what Phil suggests is a good old-fashioned land-grab.

Lincoln Valentine is a senior analyst for international equities at JBWere. He agrees that there’s a land grab going on, and debts are rising, but he says their earnings continue to grow and their valuations reflect that. The question is, what happens next? When returns don’t match the level of investment made, or when one or two players start to cut their spending? 

Phil asks where are the risks, who has the edge and how long will it all last? It’s a high stakes game, that nobody dares to ignore.

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Sally suggested as much yesterday. Now the recovery in the unemployment rate in Australia yesterday has confirmed it. NAB is not expecting any further easing by the RBA in this cycle. Ken Crompton talks through the numbers that led to this decision – actually, the employment data probably had the least to do with NAB’s call.

Meanwhile, in the US, the Fed is still divided, although speakers are sounding increasing hawkish. Perhaps it’s the lack of data that’s getting to them. It remains uncertain what will be available and when, but CPI and the unemployment rate for October are already identified as casualties.

Ken and Phil also talk through data from New Zealand and the UK and prepare for a data dump from China. 

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It’s hard to imagine the RBA cutting rates anytime soon, after yesterday’s housing loan data showed a sharp rise, including a record for new investment loans. NAB’s Sally Auld says it’s a sign for the RBA that their policy is not as restrictive as they thought it was even a month ago. Today’s employment numbers are unlikely to shift that dial.

The good news from the US is that an end to the shutdown is likely to be voted for in the next few hours. The bad news is that some of the missed data that was expected to start coming out in the next week or so, could well not be published at all. Leaving the risk that the Fed will go to it’s next meeting still flying blind.

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It was reasonably constructive news from the latest NAB Business Survey according to Taylor Nugent. Confidence fell 2pts in October, but it remains above the long run  average and echoes concerns from Andrew Hauser about rising capacity utilisation. Aussie consumer confidence jumped yesterday, despite expectations that the RBA will cut rates later, or not at all. Meanwhile, it looks like the US shutdown could end as soon as today, and we can expect a swag of delayed data as soon as next week. The UK Chancellor probably didn’t want to see the data that landed on her desk yesterday morning – unemployment grew faster than expected. But it has added to the expectation of a BoE cut in December. 

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Equity markets have bounced back on the expectation that we are days away from an end to the US shutdown. Phil points out that Polymarket odds shifted from yesterday, when 56% saying it won’t be resolved by November 16th, to now 89% saying it will be! NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are behaving like it’s a done deal, although it could be an interim fix that has to be revisited in annuary. Meanwhile the Aussie is strong, and bond yield are higher after a hawkish talk from the RBA’s Andrew Bauser yesterday, which has many questioning whether the central bank’s easing cycle has already finished.

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Signs of a weakening global economy are mounting—though with limited US data this week, the picture remains incomplete. Still, the sharp drop in the Michigan consumer sentiment survey and a contraction in China’s October exports suggest more than just a slowdown. Even Canada’s falling unemployment rate comes with caveats.

Closer to home, all eyes are on Australia’s labour market data and the NAB business survey. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to unpack what’s shifting, what’s stalling, and what’s next for tariffs and the US shutdown.

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Australia has for a long time being criticised for being a dig up and ship out economy, and the need to diversify has been talked about for decades. With that in mind, and fresh from the recognition during the COVID emergency of how fragile global supply chains can be, the Australian government established the National Reconstruction Fund. $15 billion was set aside for investment in businesses in growth areas, that will boost the economy, create jobs and drive innovation. Their new CEO is former NAB executive David Gall, who joins Phil to talk through the work of the Fund. What sorts of companies do they work with? How do they measure success? And, importantly, how do they ensure that they are not simply crowding out investment that could be made by commercial investors?

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Normally all eyes would be on the release of the non-farm payrolls data today, but the shutdown has put paid to that. The Fed’s Goolsbee says the lack of data makes it hard to advocate rate cuts; ‘when its foggy, let’s just be a little careful and slow down’. The job is made harder when available data conflicts with each other. Yesterday we were talking about the positive ADP jobs numbers, today NAB’s Taylor Nugent highlights the Challenger jobs survey that reported 153kjob layoffs in October, alongside very low hiring rates. Market sentiment has shifted, with US shares down, the dollar lower, and bond yields falling, with an increased expectation for a December rate cut.

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Europe’s revised PMIs suggest a slow but steady recovery, while U.S. services data came in stronger than expected. There’s plenty to feel optimistic about — despite political turbulence. Donald Trump faces mounting challenges: New York has elected a young Muslim mayor in a historic shift, and the Supreme Court has begun reviewing his emergency tariff measures.

Meanwhile, markets are in a buoyant mood. Equities are climbing, treasuries are selling off, and sentiment is turning risk-on. 

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Those who believed we were on the final furlong in the race to stop inflation, will have to think again. Central banks are concerned, and cuts are being pushed back. NAB’s Ray Attrill points to yesterday’s RBA statement that there are uncertainties about whether their policy is too restrictive. In other words, could this mean we’ve already reached the end of the easing cycle? The Bank of Canada’s Tiff Macklem said they weren’t looking to cut soon; the real question was how long they will hold rates for.

Meanwhile, equities took a hit last night, not helped by the CEOs of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley adding to concerns about debt fuelled growth by the Mag Seven. And the revision to European and US PMIs should be worth watching, because there were some sharp moves in the provisional data that might be washed out today.

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The Australian housing sector is certainly picking up, with prices rising and a sharp increase in dwelling approvals last month, particularly for units. An interesting backdrop for today’s RBA meeting. NAB’s Sally Auld says house prices are not targeted by RBA policy, but the wealth effect does increase consumer spending, something which the central bank will be cognisant of. Does that mean the RBA’s next move could be up? That’s a question Phil puts to Sally and one that Michele Bullock is likely to face during the press conference this afternoon. We also look at the latest PMI and ISM manufacturing numbers for the US, showing the wide divide in the two-speed economy.

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Markets didn’t have a lot to respond to on Friday, with no big data releases and no major surprises in what reports there were. Earnings probably had the biggest influence at the end of the week, with Amazon reporting 20% growth in AWS, providing further evidence of the growth in demand for cloud and AI services. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to pick through the bones from the rest of Friday’s news, including Euro area inflation, Tokyo CPI, China PMIs, Canada’s GDP and another output increase from OPEC+. Plus, a look ahead to this week’s central banks, including the RBA, BoE,, Norges bank and Riksbank.

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There are clear differences between the Australian and New Zealand economies right now, and Phil explores them with BNZ’s Doug Steele and NAB’s Gareth Spence. Doug talks of New Zealand’s rolling recession, with three years of slow GDP per capita growth, weak domestic demand and rising unemployment. Gareth paints a rosier picture for Australia, where headline GDP has been driven by strong population growth which has helped to lift business confidence. But there are similarities - inflation risks, rising unemployment and no clear answer to stalled productivity. How much of the difference between the two economies can be blamed on the comparative approach by each central bank, and how much room do they have to manoeuvre if things turn south?

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Donald Trump and President Xi have done a deal that staves off the 100% tariff hike, and actually sees existing tariffs fall a little. Phil asks NAB’s Gavin Friend why markets aren’t more excited after what Trump called a ‘truly great’ meeting. Meanwhile uncertainty has kept rates on hold for the ECB and the Bank of Japan. The Yen was the outlier in currency moves overnight. Today’s Tokyo CPI might indicate whether they made the right call. There was a mixed picture from yesterday’s tech earnings (it’s not good news all the time), with Apple and Amazon reporting shortly.

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The FOMC cut rates, but the Fed was very divided, with one dissenter wanting a 50bpcut, the other wanting to keep rates on hold. NAB’s Sally Auld gives her take on the mood of Powell’s press conference, that pushed bond yields and the dollar higher.

At home yields and the Aussie dollar pushed higher after a surprise upside for the latest CPI read. NAB is still not expecting a ratee cut before May, and that may not happen if unemployment rises too quickly.

The BoJ and ECB meet today, and shortly earnings for Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta on the day that NVIDIA became a $5 trillion company!

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The S&P hit a new intraday high as markets prepare for the Fed’s assumed cut tomorrow, alongside a swag of tech earnings. NAB’s Ken Crompton talks through how, despite all that hope, consumer confidence slid in the latest Conference Board survey. Today’s CPE data for Australia will be uber-important in setting the direction and tone for the RBA, whilst the Bank of Canada makes their call overnight tonight.

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The market shift we highlighted yesterday morning continued through the session yesterday and overnight, with gold losing ground, US equities rising and the Aussie dollar the main beneficiary in currency markets. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the ussie was also helped by the PBoC fixing the Renminbi at his highest level since October. Tay says the Aussie was also influenced a little by the RBA’s Michelle Bullock’s Fireside Chat yesterday. 

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Things are about to get very busy. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil at the start of a week that should see off the threat of an extra 100%tariff on China. We will also see rate decisions from the Fed, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Japan. For the Fed, the assumption of a cut now seems even more likely after the slower than expected growth in US CPI on Friday. Australian CPI for Q3 is out this week and, to add to the excitement, earnings results for Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon. Are you ready?

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Earlier this week Donald Trump and Anthony Albanese announced a new rare earths deal and confirmation of the AUKUS defence agreement. The market response was fairly tame. Are we becoming desensitised to the plethora of unilateral deals the US has been doing lately, and sceptical that the promises will see the light of day?

James Carouso, who has spent 25 years with the US Department of State, suggests this deal is different. It’s key to the US aim of reducing its reliance on China for rare earths and critical minerals. For Australia it provides an opportunity to support onshore processing.

James is a senior foreign policy adviser for the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, and he’s spent a good few years in Canberra as a member of the team negotiating the free trade deal with Australia, ratified in 2005. He clearly thinks Australia should embrace the opportunity and this new partnership could provide the leverage to ask for a reduction in steel and aluminium tariffs.

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Donald Trump’s sanctions on two big Russian oil producers might be enough to stop India buying from them and could have a profound impact on Putin’s foreign earnings. That’s pushed oil prices higher, whilst equities have been boosted by news that Trump and Xi will meet next week to hammer out a deal.

NAB’s Skye Masters talks through the market response to the day’s news, plus a preview of the long-awaited CPI numbers, held back because of the government shutdown. There are concerns that it might not be as reliable as previous data. It’s certainly less timely.

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Markets were a lot more cautious this session. Some commentary suggests it’s down to Trump’s comments that there might not be a meeting with President Xi this month, but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, in the same breath the US President said he thinks a deal will be reached. The biggest move has been a sharp fall in oil and silver - a move you’d normally expect when sentiment was improving. It’s one of the many quandaries about how classes that would normally be inversely correlated seem to be moving together. On top of that, the BoE’s Andrew Bailey warned that private credit was rising too sharply, in a pattern not too dissimilar to the GFC. As Ray points out, he’s not the first central banker to suggest that. In short, a day low on data or news, but piled high with uncertainty.

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Markets were a lot more cautious this session. Some commentary suggests it’s down to Trump’s comments that there might not be a meeting with President Xi this month, but, as NAB’s Ray Attrill points out, in the same breath the US President said he thinks a deal will be reached. The biggest move has been a sharp fall in oil and silver - a move you’d normally expect when sentiment was improving. It’s one of the many quandaries about how classes that would normally be inversely correlated seem to be moving together. On top of that, the BoE’s Andrew Bailey warned that private credit was rising too sharply, in a pattern not too dissimilar to the GFC. As Ray points out, he’s not the first central banker to suggest that. In short, a day low on data or news, but piled high with uncertainty.

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Before you woke up this morning Anthony Albanese was at the White House announcing a  $8.5 billion trade deal with America, giving the US access to the rare earths and critical minerals that will reduce its reliance on China. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to discuss the deal which, in theory, will see the US investing in processing capabilities within Australia.

Meanwhile Chinese data yesterday showed strong GDP growth, but less progress with domestic consumption. Ken says it’s another sign of the involution that policy makers are fighting against. Could we see more on that out of the Plenum sessions this week?

And this should be the day that Japan gets its first female prime minister. But will it last long and what does it mean for the BoJ?

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Donald Trump said he was getting along with China, and he acknowledged his 100% tariff would not be sustainable. That suggests that a deal would be done at APEC, if not before. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says that provided some positive sentiment at the end of last week. Worries over regional US banks also eased on Friday.

The likelihood that the US dollar will not fall quite as far as initially expected has caused the NAB FX team to revise their forecasts. Taylor talks Phil through the changes, which will see the Aussie dollar climb mores slowly, and not as far into the seventies (in US cents).

This week Japan might finally vote in their Prime Minister and China starts their Fourth Plenum, working on the economic policy for the next five-year plan.

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Latest data from Cotality suggests that the value of Australian real estate could top $12 trillion by the end of the year. The growth isn’t uniform, of course and affordability is still a significant issue. And yet Sydney, the least affordable part of Australia, is continuing to grow faster than the average.

Eliza Owen, Cotality’s Australian Head of Research, joins Phil to talk about everyone’s favourite subject. Where is the highest price growth and is affordability slowing the growth. Phil also asks, if capital growth is becoming less pronounced, will investors need to look for areas where they can attract a higher rental yield?

Phil and Eliza talk through the latest trends, comparing Australia to other major economies, and make some predictions about what happens next.

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Australia’s unemployment rate was higher than expected yesterday. On the podcast today we drill down on the numbers and Phil asks Rodrigo Catril whether it changes NAB’s view on when the next rate cut will happen.

Normally today we’d be reporting on US CPI, but its been delayed because of the shutdown. Hence, markets are in the dark and cautious, but the Philly Fed manufacturing data adds to concerns about rising prices and weaker employment.

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US equities bounced back, despite ongoing uncertainty in US China relations. President Trump has described China’s avoidance of US soybeans as an economic hostile account, but Scott Bessent talked up the likelihood of a truce if China plays its part. NAB’s Sally Auld joins phil to talk through the market response to all this, plus the strong start to corporate earnings season. Although tech and banking might do well, Sally says we wait to see what earnings tell us about the real economy. Today, unemployment data for Australia is out, but it’s unlikely it will do anything to bring forward a cut from the RBA, with NAB still forecasting no moves until May next year.

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It’s been day 14 of the US shutdown, as both sides dig in. And are we being too optimistic about US China relations? NAB’s Gavin Friend says we shouldn’t assume the TACO trade will see the US backing down on such an important issue. He also discusses with Phil comments from Jerome Powell at the National Association of Business Economists in Philadelphia this morning. He was more dovish than expected, helping equities to recover from earlier losses.

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The release of hostages and prisoners in Israel and Gaza is the good news story of the year, but markets are still more concerned about the outcome of trade negotiations between the US and China. Equities have bounced back, and the Aussie dollar has regained some ground, but both sides are waiting for the other side to make the first move. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril joins Phil to talk through the market response, and looks ahead to a day light on data, but strong on central bank speakers and corporate earnings. Can the rebound in US equities hold?

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Markets threw a bit of a hissy fit on Friday over US threats of 100% tariffs on China, and the meeting between Xi and Trump supposedly cancelled. But how much of it is hot air? If you look at the latest gambling odds from Polymarket, there’s only an 11% chance of a 100% tariff on China by November 1st and a 67% chance the two presidents will meet before the end of the month. Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill if we are simply seeing another TACO moment, in which case, will the markets settle down today?

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Gold hit another watershed moment this week, moving beyond $4,000 an ounce. Investors seemingly can’t get enough of it. John Reade, senior market strategist for the World Gold Council, joins Phil to talk about why gold keeps rising in price, and whether $6,000 by this time next year is realistic? Or have we reached ‘peak worry’, and prices could start to retrace a little. John’s view is that gold is being used to hedge against US dollar exposure. Does that mean as long as the uncertainty of US policies and economic outlook remains, gold will continue to do well?

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The US shutdown continues and the data drought continues, hence, markets are a little more cautious and central bankers seem to be erring on the side of caution (RBNZ being the exception). NAB’s Skye Masters joins Phil to decipher some of the comments from central bank speakers and looks at a couple of interesting papers from the Boston and Dallas Fed. Plus, with Japan now under new management, how are markets responding to that? Michelle Bullocks testimony to the senate economics committee will be one highlight today, along with Canada’s employment data, which could determine the next move by the BoC.

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The Fed minutes are out, and NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to peruse the 40 pages to see what prompted the decision to cut rates, even though there were concerns over rising inflation. They also discuss RBNZ’s big cut yesterday, with more to come. And they look at gold, which pushed higher, even against a stronger US dollar. Ray puts it down to a lack of choices when it comes to stable currency investments. The Yen, for example, is getting weaker and Europe is being hit with more weak economic data.

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The US shutdown continues with no end in sight, just a threat from the President not to pay back salary to some furloughed workers, and the prospect of layoffs just days away. NAB’s Taylor Nugent joins Phil to talk through the latest news and data, including the NY Fed survey that shows consumer inflation expectations have lifted. At home, consumer sentiment fell for the second time in a row yesterday, and the NZ quarterly survey of business optimism didn’t help determine whether the RBNZ will lean to a 25bp or 50bp cut today. It’s still too close to call.

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It’s been a session light on data but heavy on geopolitics. Markets reacted firmly as expected, to the surprise win for Sane Takaichi as leader of Japan’s LDP. The resignation of the French Prime Minister yesterday was also a surprise, sending yields higher and a big fall in equities. US equities, meanwhile, continue to rise, including a surge in the price of OpenAI after a data-centre deal with AMD. It added $80 billion to the value of OpenAI and raised flags for those worried about the potential for a tech-bubble. And the US government shutdown moves into day seven. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through a session light on data and heavy on news.

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Sanae Takaichi won the LDP leadership vote in Japan on Saturday, so is set to become Japan’s first female prime minister. She’s a known supporter of Abenomics, so could its resurgence mean a rate hike by the Bank of Japan is less likely. ‘Yes!’ is the quick answer from NAB’s Taylor Nugent. So what does that mean for bond yields, equities and the Yen today? The other weekend surprise was OPEC+ decision to lift production. We knew it was coming but the size of the increase is well below what many were expecting. Phil and Taylor also discuss Friday’s ISM data from the US and look ahead to a very quiet week, politics aside. And the RBNZ, of course.

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NAB CEO Andrew Irvine returns to the Morning Call to answer your questions. Hear his views on Australia’s investment opportunity from Asia and what he’s doing to make NAB stand out for customers. ‘We have no God-given right to be here’, he says.

Phil also relays some pointed questions from listeners; the danger of job losses from AI, NAB’s involvement in a fraudulent loan scandal, pursuing an ESG agenda when the American President believes climate change is a scam, plus the risk of rising global debt, both private and public.

Listen in for some frank discussion on The Weekend Edition. 

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With no non-farm payrolls out in the US today, and no jobless claims numbers last night, attention turns to private data, of which the Challenger jobs survey is one of the more credible reports. NAB’s Ken Crompton says the overnight data supports the idea of a low hiring, low firing economy, although it did also highlight the extent of the DOGE cuts on government workers. There could be many more of those soon as the US President threatens to cut jobs in departments and agencies that do not support his agenda. The Australian economy looks in good shape with household spending rising, although the rate of growth has slowed. And the RBA financial stability review shows households are building up savings, with an increasing buffer for mortgage repayments.

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Markets will have to feel their way through the next few weeks, because the US shutdown means there’s an absence of key government data. No weekly jobless claims today, and no non-farms payrolls tomorrow. Betting suggests it will last longer than two weeks. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market reaction and the implications. They also examine the surprise fall in the ADP jobs report, the ISM manufacturing survey, Japan’s Tankan survey and European inflation numbers. Today Australia’s trade numbers and household spending data will be of most interest.

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Not only is it school holidays for a lot of Australia right now, there’s also a week-long national holiday in China. And the US government seems likely to shutdown later today unless there’s a last-minute reprieve. That’s a lot of people not going to work. Phil talks to NAB’s Taylor Nugent about the potential impact of the US shutdown and, assuming no payrolls data on Friday, what can we tell about the US labour market from the latest data overnight. They also talk about yesterday’s RBA statement and press conference. Did it support NAB’s case that the RBA won’t cut till May?

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There has been no breakthrough yet in avoiding a US government shutdown from tomorrow. President Trump's focus has been on negotiating a peace deal for Gaza. NAB’s Ray Attrill says markets are concerned the shutdown means non-farm payrolls are not published on Friday, leaving everyone guessing about whether the weakness in the labour market has continued. He also looks ahead to today’s RBA meeting. Phil wonders whether the press conference after the rate announcement will support NAB’s position that a cut is not likely now till May.

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Friday was a day of positivity in the US, with shares bouncing back and a higher than expected read on US personal spending. But NAB’s Sally Auld says inflation is still higher than where the Fed would like it. But we know Jerome Powell is also concerned about a weakening labour market, so that makes Friday’s non-farm payrolls particularly prescient. Sally and Phil also discuss Trump’s latest tariffs, the looming US government shutdown and a swag of data for Australia, along with tomorrow’s RBA meeting.

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Donald Trump came out heavy on tariffs against China, supposedly to crack down on fentanyl trafficking, but mostly to offset America’s big trade deficit. Last year that deficit with China was close to $300 billion, more than a third of the US’s total negative trade balance. Since then, tariffs have been reduced in two successive 90-day truces, the current one due to expire in early November. What then? Phil talks to Arthur Kroeber, head of research at Gavekal. He reckons the can will be kicked further down the road. |s that because the US needs China more than China needs them? Could China continue to grow if the US market dries up, particularly given the low levels of consumption in their domestic market? And what’s the role of the PBoC in all this? Monetary policy seems limited, and fiscal policy hasn't been that effective. Part of the solution is to rein in the subsidies of businesses by local authorities as part of a move against ‘involution’.

Next week Phil talks to NAB CEO Andrew Irvine. This is your chance to put a question to him directly on this podcast. Whether it’s on the economy, on banking, on management or on NAB itself, send your question (written or as a sound file attachment) to morningcall@nab.com.au. But be quick!

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Unexpectedly positive data out of the US, including an upward revision to GDP, has push ed equities lower, and adds to the question of when does the Fed need to cut. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to dissect the data and examine the (still very varied) views of Fed speakers. It depends on the inflation data, of course, out later today. But if growth is picking up, if the job market isn’t weakening as much as first thought, could inflation pick up faster?

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Aussie inflation numbers were a bit higher than expected yesterday. On the surface it didn’t seem to be too much of an upside surprise, but NAB’s Taylor Nugent tells Phil that the devil was in the detail, with worrying indicators around services inflation. Taylor says this will have a material impact on the quarterly inflation print. As a result, it is changing its forecasts for rate cuts. Whereas the expectation was for moves down in November and February, now it’ll be well into the new year before the first cut. Phil asks, can we be sure the next move will be down?

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Not a lot of movement in the markets today, and what there has been mostly comes from what’s not being said. Jerome Powell didn’t give any commitment to a path of cuts from the Fed, instead focusing on the rising challenges of inflation and employment. It was enough to drive bond yields lower and stop the forward momentum in the US share market, particularly for tech stocks. For now. Meanwhile, Donald Trump didn’t hold back at the UN, giving his forthright views on immigration and the climate ‘hoax’. Today the focus is on Australian CPI. NAB’s Sally Auld, on the road in Narrabri, tells us what to look out for in that set of numbers.

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It’s been light-on for data so far this week, so the focus has been on the words of central bankers, starting with Michelle Bullock’s testimony to the House Economics Committee, followed by Fed speakers overnight. NAB’s Skye Masters says the sentiment is slightly more hawkish, which is why bond yields are edging up slowly. Equity markets aren’t concerned though, particularly tech stocks where demand is high and deals are being done to pick up the pace of AI. Today the focus will be on the PMIs for Europe and the US.

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There’s one thing US equity markets seem to love – no news. If there’s no news they’ll assume everything is good. That was the case on Friday with the Dow, NASDAQ and S&P all reaching new highs. NAB’s Ray Attrill joins Phil to talk about what news was driving markets, including the fall in Sterling after news of a rising government deficit, a continued slump in retail sales for Canada. There was also quite a lively Bank of Japan meeting it seems. Phil asks, with the week starting light on data will US equities continue to break records.

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A couple of weeks ago we talked about how Stablecoin in the US was seen as a means to drive demand for the expanding supply of US treasuries. What we didn’t touch on  was why people would want to use Stablecoin.’ There are so many different use cases,’ says Drew Bradford, CEO of Catena Digital, currently Australia’s only stablecoin provider. Phil asks whether it will; move from the finance sector to cover more B2B payments, and beyond to B2C transactions.

There are clear benefits: it’s faster and cheaper than legacy systems. Drew adds that its more flexible, with the ability to program transactions. That’s useful for traders but could also apply to broader transactions where payment is made on delivery, for example?

So if it’s such a golden opportunity, what are the risks? How should it be regulated? And what’s the upside potential for Australian stablecoin providers.

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It’s been a busy week for central banks, with many staying on hold. The Bank of England was one of them, but they did announce a slowdown in their QT program. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the path for the BoE, the glacial rate of cuts from the Norge Bank and expectations for the Bank of Japan today. Meanwhile markets have responded well to the Fed’s more hawkish outlook, helped a little perhaps by a sharp rise in the Philly Fed manufacturing index. They also discuss yesterday’s Australian employment numbers and the softer GDP print for New Zealand.

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Jerome Powell called today’s rate cut, and the increased dots plot for the remainder of the year, part of their risk management approach. Although some might say increasing the expectation for cuts, whilst highlighting the potential for a weaker labour market and forecasting an increase in inflation was throwing caution to the wind. Certainly, bond markets have been on a journey in the last few hours. NAB’s Ken Crompton joins Phil to talk through the decision, what was said at the press conference, and how markets have reacted. They also discuss the cut from the Bank of Canada and look ahead to today’s employment data for Australia and the Bank of England decision later.

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Markets are a little more cautious today a day out from the Fed. Maybe it’s been compounded by stronger tbhan expected data out of the us, particularly retail sales. Maybe less cuts will be needed. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril whether we can expect some market repricing after the dots plot from the Fed tomorrow morning. And the Euro hit a 4 year high. And it’s not just the Fed in the next 24 hours; there’s also the Bank of Canada after a softer than expected CPI read overnight.

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Markets are positioning themselves for the Fed and the assumption seems to be that the cut this week will be the start of a broader easing cycle. But what if it isn’t? NAB’s Sally Auld says growth and unemployment are both tracking close to the Fed’s forecasts in June, so we are unlikely to see a mass revision to the dots at tomorrow’s Fed meeting. The activity data out of China was not a good news story, though. Sally talks Phil through the numbers, and they look ahead to a busy calendar for the next 24 hours, including US retail sales, Canadian and NZ CPI and UK unemployment.

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The Aussie dollar has broken free from the holding pattern that has kept it below 66 US cents all year. On today’s podcast Phil asks NAB’s Ray Attrill why now, for a risk-sensitive currency, when there is still so much global uncertainty. That uncertainty was reflected in the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey on Friday, which showed US inflation expectations were rising. This week is a big one for central banks, with decisions being made in the US, UK, Canada and Japan. Two cuts and two on hold?

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Maybe it’s not just the Fed that’s having its independence challenged. This week independent economist Paul Mortimer-Lee wonders whether the Bank of England is now more focused on preventing the economy from tanking that it is concerned about inflation. He provides a pessimistic outlook for the UK economy, which he says is suffering from successive high spending governments. He says it needs an IMF bailout – it doesn’t need the cash, but it needs a dose of the hard medicine that the IMF doles out. Assuming that doesn’t happen, then the Bank of England will follow in the footsteps of a less independent Fed, where rates are cut to boost growth, with less concern about the return of inflation. The upshot, he reckons, is much lower rates and inflation bouncing back.

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US inflation numbers overnight weren’t too far from market expectations, but NAB’s Sally Auld points out that the core rate for August was close to a rounding error that could have been uncomfortable (0.4% rather than 0.3%). That print, combined with continued growing labour weakness in the weekly jobless claims, was enough to push bond yields down (US 10-year yields got down to 3.99%) and drive equities to new record highs. The ECB kept rates on hold, with no further cuts on the horizon, particularly as they are forecasting economic growth of just 1% next year. Speaking of slow growth, UK GDP is out later today. For one man’s take on what’s going wrong with Britain, listen to Paul Mortimer-Lee on the weekend edition out later today.

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US bond yields pushed lower after the latest producer price index was weaker than expected. The core figure, year on year, has gone from 3.4% in July to 2.8% in August. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says a chunk of the fall has been margin squeeze to compensate for import tariffs. Obviously, we only have to wait for today for a measure of consumer CPI. China’s CPI was mixed, with a fall in the headline rate, but a 0.9% year on year lift in the core rate. Another move overnight was the Aussie dollar – in a session of limited currency moves the Aussie rose well beyond 66 US cents. Phil asks why.

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Although we said yesterday that revisions to the BLS jobs data for the year to March are a piece of history, the size of the downward revision does flag the issue about just how accurate these numbers are. The revision basically wipes out half the jobs growth for the year to March, following a big revision down the year before. The markets didn’t respond too much to the data, but it provided an opportunity for Scott Bessent to call for faster cuts and question the effectiveness of the Fed. Markets were also constrained in their reaction to the Israeli bombing of a building in central Doha - oil rose a little and gold reached another new high. Today, the inflation numbers start to flow through, with CPI and PPI for China and PPI for US (CPI tomorrow).

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Are we about to see a big downward revision in US jobs data? Today a recalibrated set of results for the year to March will be released. Last time it showed a downward revision of 818,000 jobs. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says its ancient history and he doesn’t expect the markets, or the Fed to pay too much attention. He also talks to Phil about the collapse of the French government – again - and the positive market reaction to the resignation of Japan’s PM Ishiba. Locally, the NAB Business Survey is the key release to keep an eye out for.

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