We were fortunate to speak with an expert in this emerging trend, Andrew Hupert.  Andrew has a unique background, combining academic understanding of trade, investment and negotiation, with many years living in China and other parts of Asia along with his current focus on how to navigate Mexico's industrial opportunities.

He explains how the focus from Just in Time to Just in Case is shaping the the global logistics industry as well as China's involvement in Mexico.

Andrew Hupert is an accomplished entrepreneur, lecturer, and writer who has over 25 years of international experience. He has lectured and taught courses on cross-cultural negotiation at some of the world’s top business schools such as NYU’s Stern School, Strathclyde University, and Hult International Business School. Now he spends his time in Mexico working with international businesses to improve their North American supply chains, and writing on the future of globalism, cross-culture negotiation, and trends in international supply chains.

Andrew lived in Asia for over 20 years, with over 10 years of direct China experience. His first overseas experience was in the historical Japanese city of Kyoto, but he has also lived and worked in Taipei, Hong Kong, Chiang Mai, Hanoi, and Ho Chi Minh City. He returned to North America in 2021, when he moved to Mexico to assist international firms transition supply chains to Mexico and the US. He is a recognized leader in international negotiation and cross-cultural conflict management.

Andrew has published books, including The Fragile Bridge – Conflict Management in Chinese Business, and regularly writes for well-known sites like China Law Blog, in addition to maintaining his site about North American Strategy Planning.

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The current state of US-China relations is poor to say the least. In addition to concerns over a potential conflict in Taiwan and opposing policies towards the war in Ukraine, we have witnessed a general deterioration in trust and willingness to partner in virtually any sphere. We are seeing a tit-for-tat sanctioning of companies, deemed "unreliable" or a threat to national security and the banning of Chinese app Tik Tok in parts of the US. High level and military-to-military talks are absent as is dialogue on any global issue. How did we get to this point and what path is their forward? To find some answers, join me for an informative discussion with Dr Scott Moore focused on his book, China's Next Act - How Sustainability and Technology are Reshaping China's Rise and the World's Future. Moore does an excellent job of explaining the importance of Public Goods and the importance of US-China relations to the containment of potentially civilization threatening issues. His perspective comes from a career looking at US-China relations through the prism of emerging cross border themes of environmental, technology, and biomedical developments. Having lived in Hong Kong and mainland China, Moore currently leverages his knowledge at the University of Pennsylvania to provide insights and encourage collaboration between various departments. Moore views Authoritarianism, Nationalism, Protectionism in China as the key barriers to achieving cooperation on pressing issues. And he promotes the concept of competition, while not ideal, as a potential useful dynamic to continue to tackle shared challenges.

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Dr. Overholt holds a research position at Harvard's Kennedy School and is Principal of AsiaStrat LLC, a consulting firm. Previously he held the Asia Policy Distinguished Research Chair at RAND's California headquarters and was Director of RAND's Center for Asia Pacific Policy.

During 21 previous years in investment banking, he served as Head of Strategy and Economics at Nomura's regional headquarters in Hong Kong from 1998 to 2001, and as Managing Director and Head of Research at Bank Boston's regional headquarters in Singapore. At Bankers Trust, he ran a country risk team in New York and was regional strategist and Asia research head based in Hong Kong.

At Hudson Institute in the 1970s Overholt directed planning studies for the U.S. Department of Defense, Department of State, National Security Council, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and Council on International Economic Policy.

Dr. Overholt received his B.A. (magna, 1968) from Harvard and his Master of Philosophy (1970) and Ph.D. (1972) from Yale.

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Perkowski recorded many of his experiences working in China in his book, Managing the Dragon: How I’m Building a Billion Dollar Business In China, published by Crown Publishing, a division of Random House, in March 2008.  This is one of the best books I have read about doing business in China, full of insights into China's economic and political system, the challenges of Joint Ventures, and wisdom of succeeding in business. A former football player at Yale, Perkowski combines the grit of an athlete from Pittsburgh with the sophistication of an international financial and operational executive.  And to top it off, he is a genuinely warm, earnest and optimistic man.  I am sure you will enjoy this conversation.

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He is currently is a Managing Director at Stax , a global strategy consulting firm that advices 100+ Private Equity firms and their portfolio companies.  Prior to Stax, Dr. Gunasekera was a Principal Economist at Parsons Brinckerhoff (now rebranded as WSP), a leading global infrastructure group, in their Washington, D.C offices.  Dr. Gunasekera is also the co-founder of Sri Lanka@100 a private sector led initiative for value creation of mid sized firms in Sri Lanka. 

In 2019, Dr. Gunasekera was recognized as one of the top 100 business leaders in the Sri Lanka. He was also a Past President of the American Chamber of Commerce; and is currently serving on the Board of Directors of John Keells Hotels, the largest luxury hotel chain in Sri Lanka with resorts in Maldives.

Kumudu earned his Ph.D. in Economic Geography, and a joint M.A. in International Relations and Environmental Policy from Boston University. He has a B.A. in Economics from Hobart and William Smith Colleges.

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Bill Hayton is the prototypical guest on the Reorient! podcast -- accomplished, intelligent and possessing  deep expertise and a unique perspective.  I know of few authors with  comparable  breadth of experience reporting on geopolitical issues to a global audience and having a deep understanding of the history of Asia.   Mr. Hayton's accomplished  career as a journalist for the BBC began in the Middle East.  His first assignment took him to Iran in 1995 to interview Ayatollah Ali Akbar Mohtashemi to ask him if he organised the Lockerbie bombing.  In 1999, he shifted his coverage to European Affairs where he witnessed the struggle over the fate of the post-Soviet Republics, a focal point for Western audiences and policy makers.  

Mr Hayton arrived in Asia in 2006, where he reported from Vietnam, which had recently been re-engaged with the United States.  He published his first book 'Vietnam, Rising Dragon' and notes that, even today, Vietnam remains a poorly understood country , despite being the 15th most populous nation and subject of many Hollywood movies.   Hayton continues to offer insights into the nuances and rich history of countries in Asia with his soon to be released book 'A Brief History of Vietnam'. 

During our conversation Hayton helps to untangle and organise the concepts of peoples, nations, empires, cultures and civilisations.  He also explains how narratives, interpretations and definitions of history play into political objectives and become their own source of conflict. His informed realism provides a framework and pathways to enhance our mutual understanding of this fascinating and complicated region.

You can find more information on his website www.billhayton.com

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Financial Cold War: A View of Sino-US Relations from the Financial Markets

"James Fok’s book highlights the explosive risks in the relationship between the US and China today. It also offers insights into fundamental driving forces of international frictions and is a call to take urgently necessary steps to address the sources of conflict."

- Klaus Schwab, Founder and Executive Chairman of the World Economic Forum

Please click on the following link for more background on Mr. Fok:

https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-fok-24082237/

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As he worked to improve U.S.-Vietnam relations, Ambassador Osius came to know the heroes who sought to reconcile our nations, including John Kerry, John McCain, Pete Peterson and Le Van Bang. Under four Presidents and seven Secretaries of State, Ambassador Osius contributed to reconciliation not just between governments, but between former combatants, and the people of both nations. The first openly gay U.S. ambassador to serve in East Asia, he was only the second career diplomat in U.S. history to achieve that rank.

Ambassador Osius earned a Bachelor’s degree from Harvard University, a Master’s degree from Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, and an Honorary Doctorate from Ho Chi Minh City University of Technology and Education. A member of the Board of Governors of the American Chamber of Commerce Vietnam, Ambassador Osius loves all kinds of travel, biking, sailing, theater and photography. He is married to Clayton Alan Bond; the couple has a three-year-old daughter and four-year-old son.

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Josephine Wong is a co-founder and principal at Apogee and co-founder of Make Meaningful Work, as well as the co-founder of UX Hong Kong.

Jo grew up in multicultural Hong Kong, with a Chinese-Burmese father and Chinese-Indonesian mother. She collaborates with global teams conducting research in Cantonese, Mandarin and English.

Jo is passionate about the environment, political and economic systems and how we can live healthier and happier lives while not adversely impacting less fortunate people.

She co-authored Make Meaningful Work with Daniel Szuc.

Daniel Szuc is a co-founder and principal at Apogee and co-founder of Make Meaningful Work, as well as the co-founder of UX Hong Kong.

He has been involved in the UX field for over 20 years, and has been based in Hong Kong for over 20 years. Dan has lectured about user-centered design globally.

He has co-authored three books including Global UX with Whitney Quesenbery, The Usability Kit with Gerry Gaffney and Make Meaningful Work with Josephine Wong. Recorded February 5, 2022.

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Anthony Elson is an international economist, writer and university lecturer based in Washington, DC. For a number of years, he was a senior staff member of the IMF with responsibilities for organizing and supervising the Fund's macroeconomic surveillance and financial lending operations with countries in the Asia Pacific and Latin American regions. He also served for a time as the Deputy Director of the Fund's Statistics Department and was involved in the development of its Fund-wide Data Dissemination Standards and in the oversight of its data collection and technical assistance activities. He now teaches at the Duke University Center for International Development and the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies.

He is the author of five books: The global currency power of the US dollar: Problems and prospects (2021), The United States in the world economy: Making sense of globalization (2019), The global financial crisis in retrospect (2017), Globalization and development: Why East Asia surged ahead and Latin America fell behind (2013), Governing global finance: the evolution and reform of international financial architecture (2011).



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In 2012, Mandar Apte influenced Shell’s CEO to start Shell’s GameChanger social innovation program, which would invest in innovative solutions to sustainability challenges (SDG’s) and create both social impact and business returns. Through the portfolio of investments that he made through this impact investment fund, Mandar showcased how global brands, like Shell, can and must play a greater role (beyond just CSR & philanthropy) to enable and scale social impact.

In 2016, Mandar joined George Mason University as a visiting scholar at the Jimmy and Rosalynn Carter School for Peace and Conflict Resolution. He created the Business for Peace Innovation Lab, through which he provided innovation consulting to SDG16 (Peace & Security) and helped organizations to invest in peace.

While at Shell, in 2012, Mandar also won the League of Intrapreneurs award for his efforts to design and facilitate an innovation learning program to over 2000 colleagues at Shell using meditation techniques.

For nearly two decades, Mandar has taught leadership development programs using meditation techniques to thousands of people across the world, including corporate executives, Mayors, police officers, survivors of violence, returning veterans, inner city youth and educators. Mandar is the Founder & Executive Director of Cities4Peace – a not-for-profit consultancy that actively promotes peace in cities worldwide. The flagship program was held in Los Angeles, where so far over 250 community members including LAPD officers, former gang members and victims/survivors of violence have been trained by Mandar as Ambassadors of Peace. Similar programs are now being offered in many other cities and communities worldwide. – that showcases the transformational experience of victims of violence from across America who embarked on a journey to India. The film was inspired by Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., who had also visited India to study nonviolence in 1959.

In 2017, Mandar produced & directed a documentary film, From India with Love, that showcases the transformational experience of victims of violence from across America who embarked on a journey to India. The film was inspired by Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., who had also visited India to study nonviolence in 1959.

The film was premiered by the Los Angeles Police Department at Paramount Studios and is now available of Alarm Prime in the US and in the UK. 

In 2018, the film was converted into an educational module (Be The Change) in collaboration with the Association for School Superintendents (AASA). This module has been used as a resource by educators from across America to promote peace education in schools.

In 2018, Mandar hosted the inaugural World Summit on Countering Violence & Extremism that brought together law enforcement officers and peace activists from US and India to brainstorm novel solutions to promote peace. Recorded December 31 2021.

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Herald van der Linde is HSBC’s Chief Asia equity strategist, also known as “The Flying Dutchman” given his frequent travels around the region. He and his Indonesian wife are based in Hong Kong and Jakarta. He is trained as an economist and wrote his Master’s thesis in Jakarta, making this city his home. He later worked as a strategist in South Africa and Taiwan before he became HSBC's Chief equity strategist for Asia. Herald is a certified Financial Analyst (CFA), a member of the advisory board of the Chinese Studies program at Hong Kong’s Baptist University, speaks seven languages, including Bahasa Indonesia, and is a certified lecturer for the Wine & Spirit Education Trust. He has published a book on wine in 2012 titled “A Good Year To Learn About Wine” and one on Jakarta’s history in 2020, "Jakarta: History of a misunderstood city". His new book, published in October 2021, is "Asia's Stock Markets from the Ground Up."

Recorded December 20, 2021.

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Laszlo Montgomery is an LA-based businessman. He began studying Chinese at the University of Illinois in 1979. He moved to Hong Kong in 1989, and in the following decade worked at two different China manufacturers of light industrial consumer goods for the US mass market. In both companies he was the sole Westerner, gaining a unique appreciation and understanding of Chinese sensitivities and sensibilities. He then leveraged this experience into a successful career as a "bridge" between American and Chinese companies and corporate cultures.

In 2010, Laszlo, an amateur historian with a lifelong passion for Chinese history, took advantage of the emergent podcast medium to launch the China History Podcast. The podcast presents popular curated topics from China's antiquity to modern times. Three hundred episodes later, he has built an audience of Chinese history enthusiasts from Asia to Europe to Africa. He has also since expanded his offerings to include: The Tea History Podcast, The Chinese Sayings Podcast and The China Vintage Hour. Recorded 12 November 2021.

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Andrew Leung is a prominent international and independent China Strategist, a second career after thirty eight years as a top Hong Kong bureaucrat. During his illustrious public service career, he held wide-ranging positions, including Assistant Financial Secretary, Deputy Secretary for Transport, Deputy Director-General of Industry, Director-General of Social Welfare, and Director-General London.

Following his retirement, he has been a China Futures Fellow, Massachusetts Berkshire Publishing Group; Brain Trust Member, IMD Lausanne Evian Group; Gerson Lehrman Group Council Member; Thomas Reuters Expert; Senior Analyst with Wikistrat; Member, Royal Society for Asian Affairs; Former Governing Council Member, King's College London; Former Advisory Board Member, China Policy Institute, Nottingham University; Think-tank Research Fellow, Beijing Normal University, Zhuhai Campus; Advisory Board Member, The e-Centre, European Centre for e-Commerce and Internet Law; and Visiting Professor, London Metropolitan University Business School.

In 2003, he was invited by Prince Andrew for a private briefing leading to HRH’s first visit to China as UK’s Ambassador for Trade and Investment. He also advised on cross-cultural management in Lenovo's take-over of IBM Computers, and was invited as Editor-at-large by MEC International for a consultancy on China's energies. 

He is a regular speaker on China at overseas conferences and on many international TV channels. 

He holds graduate qualifications from the University of London, and postgraduate qualifications from Cambridge University, PMD, and Harvard BusinessSchool. He has been included in UK's Who's Who since 2002. He was awarded the Silver Bauhinia Star (SBS) in the July 2005 Hong Kong Honours List. Recorded December 22, 2021.

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Keiko Sydenham is CEO and co-founder at LUCA Ltd., a digital platform for alternative Investments, private equity, real estate, infra and private credit. Prior to founding LUCA, she was a managing director at Blackstone Japan, where she handled investor relations and business development. She has also held management positions at J. P. Morgan Japan (in their alternative investments division), Russell Investments, Orix Investments, and HC Asset management. She is a graduate of Tokyo University and the School of Advanced International Studies at the Johns Hopkins University. She is fluent in English, Russian and Japanese. Recorded April 22.

Jesse: Well, it's a beautiful day here in Hong Kong, and I'm very pleased to have Keiko Sydenham as our guest on today. Keiko, thanks very much for joining the Reorient! podcast. 

Keiko: Well, thank you very much for inviting me. It's very exciting.

Jesse: We're really thrilled. You're our first guest, uh, who's Japanese who, um, can discuss Japan. Um, so which is obviously an important part of the Asia Pacific region. So, uh, it's, it's, uh, very special for us to have you on. Um, so Keiko, I'd like to first ask just a little bit about your background. Um, can you share with us sort of where you grew up. 

Keiko: Yeah, sure. So I grew up a small city in Nagoya in Japan. Soand afterwards I went to, uh, college in Tokyo. And then afterwards, I actually, I spent a [00:01:00] little bit in multiple places, like in Russia, Moscow, and in Washington, DC, where I graduated, from SAIS Johns Hopkins and then New York afterwards. Uh, I worked there from 2001 to 2003. So now, then afterwards, I went back to Tokyo. 

Jesse: Um, so, um, so, uh, you know, uh, most recently, um, uh, Keiko, you were a very senior director of Blackstone group and Japan. Um, so tell us a little bit about what, what type of work you are doing at Blackstone and what, what was the firms, um, sort of main objectives in Japan. 

Keiko: Yeah, sure. So, uh, I was always responsible for capital raising. So basically, uh, my title was like, head of client institutional clients solutions, and which is, uh, I'm responsible for advising and supporting capital raising from, uh, institutional investors in Japan. So institutional investors, uh, are mainly like, you know, government, patient funds or like major banks and insurance companies and the corporate pensions.

And then. Blackston Japan actually started as a real estate investment location. So we have a heavy investment, uh, in real estate as Blackstone, Japan. And then, you know, um, afterwards, uh, we decided to do more marketing as a fundraising side, is that it was just like 2013. We kind of like put the resource in there.

And then more recently, uh, we started private equity investment in Japan. So we're pretty active in investment in Japan.

Jesse: So when you were raising funds capital, um, was it primarily for the global funds that are primarily United [00:04:00] States, but they could potentially invest in some of the Blackstone's Japan funds as well. 

Keiko: Yes, exactly. So, oh, we don't have actually a regional standalone fund. Blackstone doesn't have it. And so it's, everything is about a global fund, but as a part of, uh, a global, uh, we could invest in Japan.

Jesse: Understood now, um, obviously Japan as the world's or it certainly was the, world's second largest economy. I'm not sure if, if China has surpassed Japan yet, um, it probably depends on how you measure it, but, uh, you know, fair fair to say the world's second largest economy with a huge savings rate. Um, so it makes sense that, um, large institutions would want to tap into this, uh, enormous savings, um, pool of savings in Japan.

uh, as a source for capital for their investment funds.

Um, could you give us a sense for, um, you know, typical, large Japanese [00:05:00] institutional investors? Uh, what were they looking for as they thought about allocating to, uh, private equity or real estate? 

Keiko: Yeah. So this is very still like, you know, we call it like a private, a market investment is a very, um, beginning for Japanese institutional investors. So mainly main investment for long, long, long time has been like just sitting in JGB.

Jesse: Yes, which I should add for our audience has been actually a fantastic investment for many decades, surprisingly, because of the appreciation of the Japanese yen and also the decline in the rate on the JGB, which means a higher price. So it was surprisingly turned out to be a very wise investment for many decades. 

Keiko: Right, right. Yeah. But for Japan, Japanese investors, this is like, you know, basically no currency appreciation. [00:06:00] And actually this is, you know, we don't sell the, the, the bond. So basically it's a buy and hold…So it's kind of like now a negative interest rate is implemented. So there's no way that you could just put in the money in the JGB and then hoping  that this is going to grow the money. So, um, so that's, that's, you know, shifted a lot actually. And so basically most of the institutional clients, um, have been invested in a JGB or like Japanese stock and then, which, you know, Japan’s stock market has staggered for the last, I don't know, 20 years in a post, you know, bubble burst. So it's very hard to, uh, you know, uh, you know, put the money work, uh, if you just like invest in Japan. So, uh, and then, you know, started, uh, [00:07:00] investing in a foreign bond, foreign stock. And now it's because I think it's the long-dated, like negative rate, really pushed towards, uh, investing in the private market investment. It was just, you know, kind of a universal, uh, trend. Uh, but for Japan it is like, really like, otherwise you cannot put any money like in there.

So, um, big move was, uh, as, as to like institutional investors, big move was like, you know, uh, the government-related, um, uh, organization got to, it privatized, which is like, you know, like Japan Post bank or like others. So those, those are, uh, started actively allocating to, uh, alternative space, uh, to the various, uh, their portfolio.

6:43And also that, you know, world's biggest…you know, government pension fund, um [00:08:00] GPIF so they announced their alternative investment in 2015, try to target 5% allocation of their portfolio to be in private equity, real estate and infrastructure. So, but it's still like, it's, it's very, very, I think for their colleague’s portfolios, uh, just below like 1%, I think a 0.8% is in that area. So it's, it's potentially like, you know, it grows, I mean, it has to, grows to be like a growth, uh, more to, to, to investment.

Jesse: So, um, for the benefit of our audience, I make a couple of points. One is, um, the Japanese stock market actually still hasn't reached its the historic peak. Um, so if you look at the topics, it peaks somewhere around 2,880 back in [00:09:00] 1989. And today's sits at 1,920 or so, so, uh, we're still way off from the record peak.

Uh, and it's, as you said, it's sort of, it's kind of gone up and down, but really has been in a, in a, in a channel for, uh, effectively, um, uh, for twenty, gosh, I mean, I guess almost 30 years. Um, so, uh, I'm getting old because I remember some of it. Um, and the second thing I would mention is that the Japanese institutions seem to be a little bit late compared to certainly, um, uh, US and perhaps European institutions in allocating towards private investments.

And, uh, you know, my other Alma Alma mater, Yale university, uh, David Swenson, um, sort of created this foundation model or endowment model. And that was an investing, was going into a lot of private type investments. And he did this many decades ago. And I think today, [00:10:00] um, you know, um, Yale has maybe more than 50% in these types of private investments because it's viewed as a way to, um, to really have the best chance of reaching high, higher returns than certainly one could get investing in bonds or from the stock market. So it's interesting that Japan, um, I guess Japanese institutions have arrived at the same conclusion, but perhaps are still somewhat cautious and certainly much later than, uh, certainly United States and probably European peers. 

Keiko: Yeah, definitely. So, um, you know, they, they, they could have like, uh, put a little bit more ambitious targets, but you know, it's as Japan is very risk averse, you know, culture and nature. So, you know, they just let go slow by slow.

Jesse: So, what is the typical target or benchmark for a large Japanese institution? [00:11:00] 

Keiko: um, benchmark 

Jesse: Uh, I'm sorry. Return. What's the typical return target for these Japanese large institutions? 

Keiko: It's very different, actually. I, and if you see, uh, banks, of course, like they have a higher target. And then if they goes to like insurance companies really like, uh, depends on, on … policy, but in general, like, um, pension funds is like now is 2 to 3%. Uh, because that is the, uh, promised targets, right for, um, uh, patients, uh, and members. And so that was a full, at least like for last 10 years, it's around like that 2 to 3%... So if you, uh, want to invest in US and the US dollar basis, then, you know, hedging costs as you know, means [00:12:00] a lot. So sometimes like, you know, for the last, uh, few years, it was a really high and I mean around like 4% of the hedge fund kind of, it means that you need to earn 6% or, you know, uh, 8% on a US dollar basis. So that is the calculation.

Jesse: yes, that makes sense. Is it fair to say that the Japanese institutions would have a lower target return also because their sort of cost of capital is lower or some sort of …

Keiko: Yeah. Yes, definitely. And as you know, we are living in deflationary world for a long time, so we don't really put some in and, you know, expected inflation a lot. So that is another thing.

Jesse: Okay. Well, that's really a wonderful segue, um, perhaps to, uh, to Abenomics, uh, which is something, um, that I'm really keen [00:13:00] to talk to you about, I think is very important. So we have, um, prime minister, former prime minister Shinzo Abe. Um, who came back to serve as prime minister of Japan for the second time, I believe beginning in 2012. And he came back with a, with a very clear program to end, uh, deflation in Japan, which had been in place since, you know, the nineties. Um, so really over two decades and, um, and, uh, that he could… be very many Japanese issues, very destructive, uh, to Japan. So he came back with a clear program of, of, of sort of reigniting Japanese growth. And that was called Abenomics. So we'd love to hear from you, uh, first of all, like what is, what exactly, what is Abenomics and to what extent has it been successful. 

Keiko: Yep. Thank you. So Abenomics, um, you know, as it describes, basically, uh, really, [00:14:00] um, target to kill this deflationary situation and it made the economy grow again, so that Abenomics basically has three arrows. We call so first the arrow, as they say, uh, flexible, or they use the word “decisive monetary policy.” So, and to kill this, this issue. And then they've implemented actually like extraordinarily quantitative easing and in a bring in, uh, inflation target of 2%. And however this inflation target is sometimes like really hard to achieve, um, at the end. And, and then they also put, um, somehow like, you know, they have a tax hike as well, you know, hoping that, you know, this will bring up  somehow like an inflation target to [00:15:00] 2%, but you know, every time like some, you know, all market correction happens, uh, the, basically Japan couldn't really, um, exit this quantitative easing. So that was a little bit of trouble. And you know, of course, if the, uh, you know, if quantitative easing is continuous, then you know, stock market, you know, kinda like, you know, go up and then that goes up actually, uh, in short time, but eventually, uh, because of the, uh, actual GDP growth is, is staggered. And it has been like that for over like 10 years below 2% GDP for Japan.

So, um, it is very, um, economic policy… has a list of a contradictory, um, uh, argument actually. Um, and it experts, uh, feels that it [00:16:00] was like not succeeded and then many says that it's still like helped, you know, stock market a little bit. And it was good. And then also like the announcement of, uh, um, that the government was actually positively worked, uh, especially, uh, to, um, international audience, I believe so.

Jesse: Um, so I guess when, when thinking about, sorry to interrupt, um, when thinking about sort of the success of Abenomics, cause it's really aimed at growth, I believe. Um, what are sort of the key measures that, um, Japanese public or Japanese policy makers who are looking to, to, um, to evaluate how successful, when you look at the stock market, are they looking at consumer prices? Are they looking at unemployment? They're looking at GDP growth, something else?

15:15Keiko: uh, [00:17:00] yes, I think it ultimately is a, this, you know, um, CPI is, uh, is one of the key items and GDP growth. And GDP growth like it's all comes to actually, uh, other, uh, subset of policy. But, you know, we have a huge issue as like aging society. So our demographic, you know, um, uh, is really like, you know, over-65 year old population is now, uh, 30% of whole like Japanese population. So that is like really like, you know, uh, how to support this GDP growth with this like aging society as a huge issue. 

Jesse: Right, because you're going to have fewer, a smaller percentage of the population who's working, um, supporting a larger growing popular percentage of population that's not working who's, uh, elderly in, [00:18:00] on top of that. You have an overall population that's shrinking, so it's like a double effect. Isn't it? 

Keiko: Yup. Yup. Exactly.

Jesse: So, so, um, so when we think about, um, well let me ask you another question. So is to what extent was Abenomics the formula more or less what was being prescribed by, you know, Western particularly United States, you know, sort of policy types, you know, that, uh, worked in the Clinton administration or Bush administration, you know, those economists, you know, whether they were talking about Reaganomics or Clintonomics, but the idea was, you know, liberal, you know, liberalize markets, open up, you know, to competition, open up labor markets.

And that was sort of the, the key in addition to perhaps a lot of maybe [00:19:00] perhaps stimulus fiscal stimulus, monetary stimulus, but how much of these, this formula really is far out from, from what the, they were particularly the United States was really pushing Japan to do going back, you know, even in the 1980s. 

Keiko: Hmm. Yeah, I think, um, you know, the Abenomics are like, kind of like compared to like Reaganomics, uh, like they put like a physical policy in it, and then he wants, to increase the government spending, especially on the infrastructure or like, again, like we have, um, problem as, uh, our national debt as, you know, a high ratio of GDP, which is like two times of GDP, which is very high.

Uh, if you compare it to other developed country, so. [00:20:00] But, so this is, uh, you know, kind of like stimulus, uh, package and the government tried to put it forward. So, and I think, you know, in terms of the economics, um, um, main reason that it’s not, uh, successful as expected as, uh, once, uh, the government, uh, input the tax hike and consumption tax hike from 5% to 10% is still low. But, you know, then, you know, kind of like consumption killed, like it was killed, uh, pretty, um, severely. So, and then also the salary increase did not happen as expected. So, so that is like, you know, um, the real, uh, GDP itself, like, um, not really growing.

Jesse: I mean, [00:21:00] if we talk about, uh, the consumer price index or CPI, you know, when prime minister Abe assumed office in December of 2012, the CPI was at negative 1.1%. And today the most recent reading is negative 0.4%. So, um, and you could say, well, we're, you know, we're still, you know, there's a pandemic and a lot of economic closures, but even if we went back to say January of last year, um, so of 2020, it was at 0.7%, which you know, is positive, but not a very high level and very far from the 2% target.

And it looks like, you know, if we look at sort of, um, the history, uh, in terms of the CPI, um, the highest it got to was 1.5% in February of 2018. So it [00:22:00] pretty much has been in this range of, you know, negative 0.5% to, you know, more or less 1%. So it hasn't really broken out of that range except for a very short period of time. So it's hard to see that it's hard to say or see how in terms of CPI Abenomics has achieved its objective. 

Keiko: Yup. Yup. So. 

Jesse: So, do you think through other aspects of, sorry, please. 

Keiko: I, I think, um, one of the reason is, um, the Japan’s economy really, you know, um, developed by manufacturing, um, industry, you know, this like, um, electric. So like there's things like manufacturing. And then that was, you know, really, um, boost the economy, um, you know, in the eighties, [00:23:00] nineties, but then, you know, all the manufacturer or like, you know, this, um, preparatory issues, like, like from move to, you know, more Asia, other than Japan, like, you know, China.So, so that, that, that changed the dynamics. And, and then, so that's kind of, um, um, um, goes to third arrow that Abe wanted to do is like a growth strategy. So how, uh, actually like the economy could grow is like, you know, we need to have more like investment in innovation, um, to differentiate, you know, ourselves from just manufacturing because once a while, like manufacturer in Japan is a high quality and well respected and, but price is, you know, higher, but it's, you know, high quality, but nowadays, like, you know, this quality [00:24:00] old technology could have be replaced, uh, you know, by cheaper price and plus high quality goods from China.So kind of like, you know, uh, the government, uh, wanted to, um, uh, push more forward and innovation and it also, um, you know, this closeness of corporate culture has to be, uh, improved. So, uh, you put a lots of focus on corporate governance. And then, and also, as you mentioned from the beginning, is that private investment, um, how like 50% of the household has like, just like saving all cash. Um, so, so that has to go into investment. So that's kind of like a key concept of the growth strategy as well.

Jesse: Hmm. So maybe we could talk a little bit about, um, the corporate governance side. Cause that was, [00:25:00] that was one important piece for prime minister Abe in terms of, uh, you know, making Japan more vibrant, uh, economy. So what sort of, what changes, uh, were implemented in, in Japanese corporates, uh, under, uh, Abenomics? 

Keiko: So a major part is that, um, uh, so two pretty important things. Uh, a rule for the public listed companies, which is like, uh, one third of the board member of the listed company, uh, has to be independent, external, uh, member. 

Jesse: yes. 

Keiko: Yeah. So, so which, which kind of like, uh, give you, uh, more transparency, openness, uh, of a corporate decision.

So if you look at a number like, uh, only [00:26:00] 0.4% of listed company has one third of a member and number of the people from, uh, outside, uh, in 2014, and then that...

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Shanghai-based Bryce Whitwam is an adjunct instructor of integrated marketing and communications at New York University. Prior to that he was the China CEO of MRM/ McCann, a leading data science, technology innovation and creatively-driven relationship marketing agency, and before that still, the CEO of Wunderman Greater China. He is a fluent Mandarin speaker and a 25-year veteran of the marketing communications business.

Whitwam is one of Asia's pioneers of non-traditional advertising, specializing in digital and data-driven marketing, retail communications and brand activation. His experience spans key categories, including automotive and telecommunications, and he has held senior management roles at Nielsen, Lowe and Ogilvy.

A keyboardist when he's not working, he has recorded 2 records in China and Taiwan with the band, "Identity Crisis." Recorded September 1, 2021.

Transcript

Jesse: All right, everyone. Good day. Good evening, everyone. Today is the 1st of September, 2021. And today I'm very pleased to have a very interesting guest named Bryce to have a very interesting guest Bryce Whitman, uh, join us who is an expert in marketing and advertising and China.

Bryce. Welcome to the reorient podcast. 

Bryce W: Thanks, Jesse. I'm really happy to be here.

Jesse: Great. Well, um, so, uh, Bryce, I think people can tell from your name and your accent, that you're not originally Chinese, but your, uh, you spent a couple of decades, uh, even more in, in [00:01:00] China and the greater China region. Um, but you're originally from, I believe, South Dakota. Uh, so maybe share with us, uh, sort of briefly how a young man from South Dakota sort of unlikely journey to become a, uh, advertising and marketing guru in China. 

Bryce W: Okay, so thanks Jesse. Appreciate it. And I will try to answer your question in the briefest, most interesting way possible, because anytime you tell your life story, you always, uh, always this tendency to go on and on and on. And normally my wife is next to me and she'll kick me under the table and say that’s enough.

Um, so yeah, so I, I. It literally, uh, I was, I graduated, uh, from the university of Minnesota with a Russian area studies degree. I was a Russia guy. Uh, I was unable to find any opportunities, uh, to go to the then Soviet union. So a professor [00:02:00] recommended that I go to China instead and it turned out. I found a teaching job in Beijing, uh, and that was a really enlightening experience. Uh, it wasn't a, let's say a financially viable one, but it really essentially changed my life. And after that, I moved to Taiwan, uh, for about three years where I studied Chinese. And later after that, I went back to the US and got my master's degree.

And that kind of started out my whole career plans. It was in my master's degree program that I found a love for marketing. Or you could say, I found that I wasn't very good at finance. So usually at that time you usually have this choice to do marketing or you do finance. And surprisingly, I was really good at marketing.

So I immediately thought, well, that's what I'm going to do. Uh, so I went back to Taiwan after graduating and I got a job at Nielsen, the marketing research company. I was pretty much in [00:03:00] retail software. Uh, I thought it was a very interesting, uh, chance to, to really, to get into, uh, marketing and advertising.

And it was there for about three years before I joined a company in Hong Kong that primarily did retail displays and merchandising for big brands like Coca-Cola and Procter and. And then later I was in Thailand and that was my real first advertising advertising job. I was at Lowe in Bangkok for five years.

Uh, after that, uh, I was recruited to, to China for obviously at that time, my, my, my Chinese is easily better than my Thai. And I took a job, uh, with Ogilvy in, in, in Shanghai about 2005. And I've been in Shanghai now for almost 16 years, doing various jobs in advertising and marketing. I've always stayed on the non-traditional advertising side because like in 2005, it was very niche.

Most [00:04:00] people in advertising business were doing television and print ads and doing the more, you know, Mad Men, Don Draper stuff. I was much more into digital and retail. I saw that as the kind of the future and about 2010, 2012, the market flipped. And suddenly the guys that were doing the digital and retail parts of the presentations to the clients, they got bumped up to the, to the front seat and the other guys got kind of pushed back.

And in a sense that hasn't changed since then. It's still very much a part of the China market now, which is very much digital e-commerce social media retail.

Jesse: So Bryce, that was a great summary. And one of the reasons I'm so excited to talk to you is because you have a really great, um, historical perspective on, uh, advertising and marketing in China, which is the biggest, fastest, uh, consumer market in the world, uh, for the last, um, probably three decades. So, um, when you arrived in, in, in Asia, um, obviously the US has been the leader or had been the leader, I should say, in mass marketing, right?

Because the U S in a sense developed, um, the, the idea of a mass consumer who you targeted to, you know, on a very broad geographic basis. So the US was very innovative and very, uh, had a lot of leadership in leveraging, you know, mass communications and conducting mass marketing strategies. [00:06:00] So could you share with us a little bit about when you first arrived in China?

Uh, to what extent were you deploying um, proven marketing and advertising models, frameworks templates from the U S into China. And to what extent, even in the early days, that wasn't the case. And then I'm sure it's, as you just mentioned now, and we'll get into sort of the digital transformation, uh, and, and, and, and the more sophistication of the China market, but bring us back to the early days of, of marketing advertising in China, 

Bryce W: Sure. So upon arrival, uh, I worked, uh, in the department, uh, with Ogilvy.

Jesse: Just give us an idea of the arrival, like the timing the year 

Bryce W: Oh, sorry. It's 2005 end of 2005. And, uh, at that time, uh, our agency was specialized in retail activation, uh, which was more about [00:07:00] non-advertising type of activation, either retail and some digital experiences. That's where our core focus was. So at that time, though, uh, advertising in China followed pretty much the same global model where you initiated a big idea through a campaign based upon an insight of a consumer.

And then from there you created an advertising campaign. 75% of it was on television. The other 25% was on non-traditional media. And then, uh, magic happened, consumers saw the ads and they went to the stores and bought the product. At that time, it was clear that no matter what you did in China, you would achieve success.

In other words, any good or bad ad would largely be successful because at that time, not only was the market opening up, but the market was expanding. So in tier [00:08:00] one in the large cities, uh, which were initially always the core focus in the beginning for most foreign consumer brands, but it became obvious that as the market, as the market developed that they needed to move beyond tier one, to tier two and tier down to tier seven.

So as the result of a distribution increase brands saw increase in sales. In other words, parallel to the marketing efforts we were doing, the brands were increasing their sales through distribution channels. So it always looked like the advertising was doing fantastic because the sale, the marketing people would come back from the clients to say, oh my God, that ad achieved 30% increase in sales.

Well, the reality is that the ad wasn't probably the result of those success. It was the distribution. Nevertheless 

Jesse: In other words, [00:09:00] they were, um, attributing the entire, uh, amount of sales growth to a particular ad, while ignoring all of the physical infrastructure and distribution logistics, which would make products available to more consumers to buy, thereby increasing their sales. 

Bryce W: Yeah, exactly. So, um, I obviously, I can't discount to say that the ads were useless and it had no, no purpose. No, that's not true. Definitely at that time, brands were starting to, uh, to, to foreign brands, definitely had a huge impact. And at that impact started to, at that point in time, started to become evident that retail, uh, and digital started to have much more of an important part in the consumer buying process.

It wasn't just the TV and print ads, but it was also the other things as well. And in that context, China followed very much the global model, which is that you needed to have an [00:10:00] integrated marketing solution if you wanted to be successful in China. 

Jesse: So at what point did you see? Uh, sorry. Am I interrupting you? 

Bryce W: no, no, go ahead.

Jesse: Okay. So at what point did you see, um, short of China, uh, having, um, its own unique approach to marketing and advertising where a, um, sort of the Wester,n American, uh, template or framework was no longer effective in China. 

Bryce W: I think it was really when, I would estimate around 2015 was when you started to see the transformation. That was really at the growth and development of Weibo, WeChat and obviously Taobao, uh, those social media on one side and e-commerce on the other. And when you saw them completely take off, and at that point in time, you saw the power of [00:11:00] media being consolidated into the two players, Tencent and Alibaba and to a certain extent Baidu as well, uh, which is known as the BAT. And they started to really gain power around that time. And it's that time you started to see a flux fluctuation in media spend moving from traditional television, print radio. All those things started to quickly evolve into the non-traditional spaces, the e-commerce, the social, the digital, uh, and those things really started to flourish around 2015.

Jesse: So, um, I think most of our listeners will be familiar with, um, you know, Tencent and with Alibaba and WeChat and Alipay these and this concept of the walled garden, where you have a closed ecosystem that combines social media and payments, and a lot of other things, which is very [00:12:00] powerful, and in effect, China was the leader, uh, in developing those. But when we're looking specifically at the concept of marketing, and advertising, um, walk us through some of the, the key points of differentiation, uh, from a, let's say an advertising agency campaign when you're developing, uh, something for traditional media, television or prep, would you used to normally do and then moving into to the digital online? 

Bryce W: I think the biggest difference, uh, normally is if to start off with, is if you look at a market like the United States, just as an example, uh, it's still, still media spends about 75 to 85% traditional television media. So in that sense, that China is about 30, 35%, uh, 25% traditional [00:13:00] media. And, uh, as of like 2021.

So in order to plan for a particular campaign, you have to be less reliant on, on a visual video advertisement than you used to be before. And in addition to that, that social media and within not only in e-commerce spaces, but within the social media platforms themselves have been places where consumers become aware of products, they consider them. They find out information about them. And the key difference here is that they immediately can purchase them. So, uh, so therefore the role of marketing and advertising has become one that effects that type of particular process. And in order to do that, companies use a variety of different mediums and channels to be able to actually affect the target audience.

If [00:14:00] you sit through a global presentation, a global media presentation that features an American market and a China market, the China market one will be 50 pages long. Whilst the Western one will be 10 or 15 pages. Why? Because there are so many different points of contact that you have to connect in order to be successful.

I did a research project recently for a major computer company that makes  home printers. It turned out that the average Shanghai consumer will engage with 14 different channels, 14 in order to make that decision to buy that printer. That's completely insane. So from a planning perspective, you need to wait, I don't know, to be in 14, that's a bit of a stretch, but you need to be at least [00:15:00] in most of them in order to affect that consumer buying, uh, buying mindset. And 

Jesse: Just to maybe make the point, uh, sorry to interrupt, but to make the point clear, perhaps to our listeners. So, um, this contrasts, maybe with the idea of doing one big, uh, television ad and then being present, say in a big box retailer, like, uh, you know, Circuit City or Best Buy where they can find your product in China, the consumer is going to be looking, or at least in Shanghai, according to the survey, the Shanghainese consumer, just to buy a home printer, which is not a huge purchase is going to be referencing 14 different online channels. Is that where we're talking about 14 different online, online, offline. 14 different online and offline channels, and they will, in order to sort of increase your chances of making them, uh, leading to a [00:16:00] successful sale to that consumer, you need to be present in many, most, or if not, all of those 14 channels. 

Bryce W: The second, second factor is that that 75% of Chinese consumers don't trust social media ads. And by that what I mean is traditional advertisement. And as a result, uh, brands now are relying more on influencers either, either on, on celebrity influencers, the ones you read about, or, uh, now what's as popular is, uh, uh, key consumer influencers.

Jesse: I think it's called a key opinion, consumer KOC, key opinion consumers. 

Bryce W: KOCs now are being employed.

Jesse: Right. So a a if I'm correct, an influencer would be like a celebrity who might, you know, be in the arts and entertainment where so key opinion consumer is, is perhaps more of a [00:17:00] normal person who, uh, like is really familiar with the particular kind of product that they consume. 

Bryce W: Most, uh, brands, including the printer example that I just brought up, they will use about five or six levels of influencers. So the ones that you described are the very, very top. You probably use them on a shopping festival, like Double 11, uh, the Singles Day festival or a particular push to be able to create awareness. In the middle of that, here's a lot of other influencers, possibly people, uh, for example, people that are, are tech influencers, Chinese consumers buy printers because they want to print their children's homework directly from their WeChat on their phone to their printer. So obviously there could be educating educator influencers as well to say that this is the best printer to print, little Weiwei’s homework, and [00:18:00] then underneath it, you have these validated key opinion consumers who are the ones that say, “Oh my God, this is the best printer in the whole world. I love it.” Just more social validation.

Jesse: So it's a very complicated ecosystem as you're highlighting, uh, in this new, um, sort of social media, digital, um, uh, economy in China. Um, just to maybe take one step back and thinking about, um, sort of the theory of advertising, of the utility of advertising, um, it could serve multiple purposes. Um, and you've alluded to this because on the one hand, um, we want to generate sales, which can be measured, you know, on a daily basis, um, and perhaps linked to a campaign. But on the other hand, um, if you have a brand you want to build, um, a brand equity, longterm, [00:19:00] uh, awareness and a positive, um, impression in the minds of all stakeholders, right? That could be not just consumers, but maybe, you know, government officials, um, the employees themselves, you know, potential, um, recruits, you know, everyone to say, this is a great company, a great brand.

Do you, how would you sort of, um, when you look at the dual roles of advertising, marketing, how do, um, executives weigh those two and balance those two? Because clearly brand equity is a long-term proposition. And many people may not be around to enjoy the benefits of the brand equity. And it's, it's sort of intangible in a way, so it's difficult to measure.

So how do people approach that? 

Bryce W: That's a great question, Jesse. I think that people approach it in the context that building brand equity [00:20:00] is looking at the entire customer experience and how your consumer connects with your brand. So that, and people always in China, uh, my students I'm teaching currently at NYU, my students, when I always ask them the question, what's your favorite brand? And 9 times out of 10, Apple always comes up. And I think what Apple does very well is in that context of brand building, they don't really run lots of television ads. Yes. They have a, uh, Chinese New Year, uh, film that they've they're famous for, but their brand equity is built upon customer experience.

And that comes into different places within the customer journey. When you, for example, when you get, you have an old phone, you get a new phone, the transfer of your data from your old phone to the new phone is a pain point that most consumers would have in the past. In the past. [00:21:00] I don't know if you're old enough, but literally transferring your phone book into your new phone was literally a nightmare.

And often times you had to re type in all your old data. That point, pain point has been fundamentally eliminated by Apple because of the iCloud and the ability to transfer all your data to your new phone. That is a customer that builds brand equity. How you walk into the Apple store and how you interact with the Apple store. And the simple fact that even in China, when you walk in, I've seen people walk into the Apple store with problems with their Huawei phones and people in the store will help them with their Huawei phones because they know Chinese consumers know about the level of service that's provided is extraordinary.

And those kinds of experiences will in effect, build that brand equity. So it's not necessarily a yes, it's an emotional connection, but Chinese consumers [00:22:00] especially will emotionally connect with your brand, not only from, uh, from the heart, but also from the head. And they will see how they can experience that product through different levels of the journey.

And they will base your brand equity on that. It's interesting to know that, the according to the WPPs brand Z, the consistent number one winning brand in China is WeChat. That's the brand, a brand that doesn't advertise a brand that yes, it's ubiquitous with your life. 90% of consumers open their phones on a daily basis to use WeChat, but why is WeChat number one? It's because it provides an extraordinary...

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Noor Sweid is the founder of Global Ventures, a Dubai-based, growth-stage venture capital firm focusing on investing in emerging markets. Previously, Noor was the Chief Investment Officer at The Dubai Future Foundation, where she spent time developing the technology and innovation ecosystem in Dubai, and a Managing Partner at Leap Ventures, a growth-stage venture capital firm based out of Dubai and Beirut.

Noor moved back to Dubai in 2005 after spending time in the US as a biotechnology and pharmaceutical strategy consultant. Once in Dubai, Noor joined her family business, Depa. Implementing best-practice corporate governance and enabling the scaling of the business tenfold in three years to reach US$600 million in revenues, Noor then led the IPO for the company in 2008, on the NASDAQ Dubai and the London Stock Exchange.

During this time, Noor also founded ZenYoga, the first yoga and pilates studio in MENA, which grew to become the largest chain of wellness studios in the Middle East, and which she exited ZenYoga in early 2014 through sale to a private equity firm.

Noor is Chairperson of the Middle East Venture Capital Association, was on the Founding Board of Endeavor UAE, and serves as a Director for MIT Sloan, TechWadi, The Grooming Company, the Collegiate American School in Dubai, as well as the portfolio companies of Global Ventures.

In 2018, Noor was named as one of the World’s Top 50 Women in Tech by Forbes, and received the Arab Woman Award for Finance. Noor has also been named in the Arabian Business 100 Most Powerful Arab Women list three times, and has been profiled on the covers of Forbes Middle East, Entrepreneur Middle East, and Arabian Business magazines.

Noor holds bachelors’ degrees in Finance and Economics from Boston College as well as an MBA from MIT Sloan. Recorded September 2, 2021.

Transcript:

Noor Sweid

Jesse: Okay, here we go. All right. Hello? Hello everyone. Today is the 2nd of September, 2021. Time goes by quickly. And, uh, today I have the pleasure of a very interesting guest who I met many years ago and really excited to talk to. Uh, and I'm hopefully going to pronounce her name correctly.

Noor Sweid. 

Noor: That's perfect. Thanks Jesse.

Jesse: Uh, and Noor, are you joining us from Dubai? 

Noor: I'm in Dubai right now.

Jesse: Great, great. So Noor is, uh, joining us from Dubai, who is the founder of Global Ventures, um, which is I think where the most interesting venture capital firms I have come across. So Noor, welcome to the Reorient podcast. 

Noor: Thank you, Jesse, for having me and, um, and for giving us the opportunity to share what we're working on here out of Dubai.

Jesse: Well, you have a great story and I'm looking forward to delving into it. So before we go into what, um, sort of the Global Ventures. And what your work is there. Um, give us a little bit of sense. You have a very interesting personal story. So let us know a little bit about your journey of how you came to become a venture capitalist, uh, sitting in Dubai. What was your journey to this point? 

Noor: I grew up in a bunch of different countries. I was born in Boston, raised in London. We moved to Saudi Arabia when I was 12. We moved to Dubai when I was 15. I, I then went back to Boston for college. Um, I studied, I worked at Accenture for awhile as a consultant in biotech and pharma, and then I did my MBA and after a time staying in Boston, came back to Dubai in 2005 where my family had remained since I had gone off to do my studies and came back as a consultant with Booz Allen, and then between my first and second projects kind of had three weeks as consultants do, to, to relax or recover depending on how you see it and just kind of zone in on, on home turf rather than continuing to travel every week.

And then within that three weeks, I worked for a little bit with my father and his company, Depa. Three weeks in the trenches grew into three months. Over the subsequent three years, we grew the company, which was an interior contractor from about 16 million top line to 600 million, from a thousand people to 9,500 across 22 markets, becoming the largest in the world and other space.

And the learning there was, you can build the largest in the world and a vertical from anywhere, including Dubai. In April ‘08. Um, I ran the IPO for the business, which was fantastic. It was one of the first out of the region to list internationally. Um, we listed on the main board in London, um, and the NASDAQ Dubai as well.

And then I continued with the company for five more years until 2013. At the same time I had started a side project in early 2006. I had started a yoga studio in Dubai. So I had become a big avid yogi since the year 2000, when I was living in Boston, when there were one or two studios in Boston, by the time I left in ‘05, there were at least 20. Um, so coming to Dubai and yoga still hadn't really existed here,started a studio, brought two teachers over from the US, um, that were keen to, to explore. And they came for two years, um, which obviously then turned out to be much longer because then yoga went from being kind of my weekend project into a proper yoga chain and to a large wellness chain, and I sold that to a private equity firm. And my learning there was, it's so hard to be an entrepreneur. And so I went back to wait, I have this, I mean, we had 72 teachers, 6,000 students a month and so on, but, you know, and I would, I would look back on my day and I would say, wow, the hardest part of my day was dealing with these yoga studios, not running a billion dollar company.

And 12, 13 years ago, a billion dollar company was very large. It wasn't a unicorn, you know, um, like the, these days. And so that learning then took me to, how can I work more with these entrepreneurs? Because if it's that hard and I'm so blessed and fortunate that, um, that I also have experience running a large company and all these, all this expertise in other areas, um, let me help others figure it out as well.

And so I became an angel investor because that's all I could do at the time. And then these young angel investments, these companies started to scale. You know, they need to scale. I'm not that scalable and figured, you know, let me, let me think about this into this. Well, I had had these two exits done, um, and started just investing a little bit and then looking at venture.

And it just seemed to me that venture just didn't exist in the region. There was a few firms, like three or four, but nowhere near what we needed. I'm very data-driven. So once I started taking a look at the data, I realized that we invest as a region 0.02% of our GDP in venture. The U S is at 0.7, so 35 times more.

And so those numbers just were staggering to me. And then as I looked and I had this moment of what am I doing with my life? I want to do something that's meaningful. And so on. It really hit me that the most meaningful moment in my life was when we were writing the prospectus. And we were looking at the job growth.

And so I said, okay, wow, the job growth went from 1000 to 9,500 people in three years. It was amazing. How do we replicate that in a sustainable, scalable fashion? So then I started doing research around, well, you know, what, what stimulates job growth, and then America and in the US, VC backed companies create 2.8 times as many jobs as non-VC backed companies.

So I said, okay, well then the obvious solution is if you want to scale the concept of job growth, you don't go start one company, you enable many. And then in that learning, I said, okay. Um, for those who are familiar with emerging markets, in our market that’s 40% unemployment, that's four zero, not one four.

And, and that's particularly in the youth segment. So the under 30. And that's half our population. So you take a look at the one and a half billion people we have here, half of them are under 30 or 35. And 40% unemployment, if you have a job, your brother or sister doesn’t.

And so if you really want to start affecting unemployment and creating these jobs, then venture is probably the right way to do it. And given that there's no VC funding, and no access to capital for founders. I’m like, that's a problem I want to tackle. So I don't come to venture from, I want to be an investor.

I come to venture from, I'm an entrepreneur that wants to solve a problem that I believe is worth solving. And here I'll put a little dent in this massive unemployment problem, my being a VC, because I believe that given my experience and given my background, um, I can probably pick the companies that have mission driven founders, but at the same time, we'll create these incredible returns.

And so that's how I got into venture. 

I took a side step for two years into government and served as the CIO at Dubai Future Foundation. How do you go from a tourism hub to an innovation hub. And how do you invest in startups? 

And then, um, almost four years ago, I left that role to start my own firm, um, so started global ventures really, as I can, I have in the past, helped build a global company out of the region. And if you can do that for interior contracting, which is boots on the ground, and you're actually building out interiors of hotels and airports and infrastructure, then you can do it for tech, right?

Like it's actually, it should be much easier. Um, and so it really it's about global thinking, networks, scalability, um, and hence global ventures. It's not that we invest globally. We invest in the Middle East and Africa. It's that we want the invested ventures to become global. And so starting a little venture with this, you know, relatively crazy idea of we're going to build and we're going to help global companies in the region. At the same time, we're going to tackle unemployment and take a look at five UN SDGs. So on the impact of that we aligned with, um, but 

Jesse: SDG being what ?

Noor: Sustainable Development Goals. So the UN many years ago, all the countries got together and said, where does the world want to be by 2030 and 2025? And, um, and they built, they have 17 different goals.

Things like education, unemployment, access to water and so on, and environments and so on. And so the world, including like my children, will tell you exactly what those 17 SDGs are, because we're teaching young children these things these days, um, and most investment firms around the world in emerging markets will say there's one or two that we’re aligned to, um, and they're usually environment or governance. And in our part of the world we have decided this job growth, financial inclusion, healthcare inclusion, so things that are much more, you know, they're often seen as basic human rights, but in our part of the world, the vast majority of people don't have access.

And so we figured let's run a venture capital fund and create the great returns that, that we expect of VC funds. But at the same time, try to touch people's lives.

Jesse: Well, that's a phenomenal, uh, introduction. Uh, and I know, uh, each part that you mentioned, we could go in maybe levels deeper into the granularity, but that's a great overview, and I should add for our audience, I mean, Global Ventures now, I don't know if this is the latest data, but um, it has really grown since I think you established around five years ago, and you have a, I think over 20 employees and you're operating in six countries and at least 24 portfolio companies.

So you've really scaled into a very significantly sized venture capital firm in the region. Um, just, uh, you mentioned sort of mission driven and, and really trying to address the problem of unemployment and sort of basic needs. It makes me think of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. Does that, is that sort of a fair way to sort of look at it and say, listen, before we get into this highfalutin, you know, uh, touchy, feely stuff, let's, people's real day-to-day problems.

Is that, is that a fair way of describing it? 

Noor: You know? I think so. And for me, it's a chicken or egg problem, right? Well, what's the point in fixing healthcare and financial inclusion if the environment collapses and the planet doesn't exist. At the same time, what's the point in making the planet exist, and the environment is all great, if people don't have access to, like a piece of bread every day or a job, or, you know, our doctor when they're really sick.

So, you know, it's really, it depends where you sit in the world. We happen to sit in the middle of a market where four years ago we had 85% of the population's unbanked, now we're at 55%. And so you can prove that FinTech actually enables financial inclusion. Right? And so we're backing those companies that when they come in, they are tech companies through and through, but if they succeed, you're going to impact hundreds and millions of lives.

Jesse: I got it. So we're talking about real impact. So before we get into the sort of types of investing investments you make and that you look at and what's happening in venture capital, let's just first define the region. Um, so I think, uh, it's MENA: Middle East and North Africa, or is that not correct? You're looking at all of Africa. 

Noor: Yes. So 

Jesse: Africa. 

Noor: We've done a few investments in Nigeria. We've invested in Kenya. Um, for us Africa is, is very similar to North Africa. Imagine that, um, except some of the needs are more dire. 

Jesse: Okay. 

Noor: Regulators are more flexible and sort of technology is able to innovate more quickly.

Jesse: Okay. So we're talking about a very large, I mean, It's almost hard to call it a region, right? I mean, you have Middle East and this continent of Africa. I mean, that's a lot of geography, but do you view that as a cohesive region or would you more say, you're basically, you're looking at, you know, two continents or continent and a half. And so you're just, you know, however many countries are you talking about in population size? 

Noor: It's absolutely cohesive and we've seen it. So our portfolios grow from one to the other, I wouldn't say seamlessly, but very easily. Um, I'll give you a great example. So one of our companies in Nigeria is called Helium Health. It's an EMR, an electronic medical record system for hospitals. So 30% of hospital visits in Africa are documented.

Right. That’s sub-saharan Africa. Go slightly north, fantastic, now it's 45%. In Jordan and rural parts of Saudi Arabia, you might be at 60%. The problem still exists and still needs to be solved, but it's not as dire. Right. And so these solutions like M-Pesa, how that came out of Kenya. Right. So these solutions will come out of areas where there’s most dire need, where they are at 30%, but now Helium's expanded into the Gulf, because they're solving a real problem using up-to-date technology, cloud based solutions. It's an offline first solution because that's what works in emerging markets. It's a fully integrated with the regulator and patient and doctor. Right? So you take a look at Helium as just one example of yes, it's a solution.

Y Combinator founders, and when we syndicated the deal, we did it with  tencent and AIC out of Japan. So it's really the international community realizes that they're solving a real problem, that is global, it just happens caught of Africa because the need is so dire.

Jesse: Okay. So, um, when we're talking about, uh, sort of Middle East and Africa, you know, we're probably looking over 70 countries, uh, one and a half billion people, uh, just, you know, a lot of diversity. Clearly. Including the level of development, which you just touched on. So just sort of just before we get drill down, what's the sort of common factor in terms of how you're saying, where we're looking at these markets, what sort of tying them together? Is it basically that they all have basic needs that need to, that can be filled in net through the venture capital process? 

Noor: So they all have the same demographics where half their population is under 30. They all have super high mobile penetration. So you're north of 80, 90% mobile penetration, but yet low financial inclusion, low health care access. Right. As in, if you need to see a doctor, that is a very, very big problem. It's not about, oh, we're improving quality of care. No, there is no care. Right? So you're going from no doctor to tell a doctor, just like who went from cash and coin to digital. We fixed financial inclusion, not by building banks. We're going to fix healthcare inclusion, not by building hospitals. And I'll give you-- the numbers are the same. So in Sub-Saharan Africa, you have about 0.5 doctors per thousand people. And in North Africa, you're a 0.8. You go to the US, you are at four and a half, right? So again, it's incrementally different, but it's dire. So those are the commonality is the needs of these basic things, the population demographic, the mobile penetration and the unemployment.

Jesse: Okay. Fantastic. So, I mean, one of the things I think that makes what you're doing so interesting, and how venture capital in your, I don't want to call it region, I think it’s regions, anyway differs from say, the US, is the impact it has on people's day-to-day lives. Um, I mean, if we had to generalize, a lot of venture capital in sort of the developed world is aimed at sort of improving efficiencies, maybe making something, you know, more for a consumer to save time. A lot of it might be aimed at sort of business. And so it's hard to say that those, you know, in terms of impact really, uh, you know, enhance the quality of life for the people, whereas what you're doing, and you've mentioned um, telemedicine or, or doctors using tech, leveraging technology to improve healthcare, that's really, uh, impacting at a very deep and fundamental level, the lives of people in those markets. 

Noor: Yeah, and we, and it's, you know, not just the telemedicine, but one of the companies in our portfolio that's also done very well is an augmented reality for virtual surgery. So you can stream in a specialist surgeon from, for example, Cleveland clinic, which they've done into Afghanistan. So this was a female founder. She was a surgeon, living in Beirut, working with children and hospitals and realizing, I wish I could get to more places faster, fast forward, several years. She now has a contract with J and J, working with Teledoc, working with the NHS in the UK, because also the discrepancy between let's say, you know, rural America or rural UK and, uh, Boston or San Francisco or London in terms of quality of care, you know, the chance of fatality and complications from surgery is 3x.

So she went out to serve emerging markets, our part of the world, and that's where she started. That's where she's still serving, but because it's built for emerging markets with the low latency and the rest of it, it can then easily crack global markets, it’s regional founders solving regional problems that are much more dire, but they're actually global problems a little bit, but regionally she's saving...

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Dr. Kumudu Gunasekera is a Colombo, Sri Lanka-based management consultant and strategic advisor to private equity firms, public and privately held corporations, and Fortune 100 global organizations.

He is currently the Joint Managing Director of Stax Inc (APAC region), a global strategy consulting firm that advices 100+ Private Equity firms and their portfolio companies.  Prior to Stax Inc, Dr. Gunasekera was a Principal Economist at Parsons Brinckerhoff (now rebranded as WSP), a leading global infrastructure group, in their Washington, D.C offices.  Dr. Gunasekera is also the co-founder of Sri Lanka@100 a private sector led initiative for value creation of mid sized firms in Sri Lanka. His insights and perspectives have been published in multiple peer-reviewed journals and industry magazines.  He has also instructed numerous undergraduate, graduate and professional courses while being an adjunct Professor at Boston University. 

In 2019, Dr. Gunasekera was recognized as one of the top 100 business leaders in the Sri Lanka. He was also a Past President of the American Chamber of Commerce; and is currently serving on the Board of Directors of John Keells Hotels, the largest luxury hotel chain in Sri Lanka with resorts in Maldives. He is also on the Advisory Boards of Sri Lanka Institute of Information Technology, and the National Infrastructure Committee of the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce. 

Kumudu earned his Ph.D. in Economic Geography, and a joint M.A. in International Relations and Environmental Policy from Boston University. He has a B.A. in Economics from Hobart and William Smith Colleges. Recorded August 19, 2021.

Show Notes:

02:25 "If you've never experienced a bomb before, suddenly time stops and you see vibrations in slow motion."

03:20 "In Asia even the trishaw driver has a 20% growth mentality."

05:15 "Working on the Panama Canal expansion gave me an understanding of mega projects"

10:19 "The legacy of colonial divide and rule policies haunted post-independence Sri Lanka."

12:28 "The post-war growth spurt in Sri Lanka hit the dual hurdles of the Easter attacks in 2019 and now, COVID."

14:38 "Sri Lanka's economic growth strategy has never been purely tourism-centric."

15:30 "Not many people know about Sri Lanka's robust and growing knowledge services industry... It is becoming an innovation hub globally, boosted by the rise of remote work."

18:30 "Sri Lanka's comparative advantage is not just natural resources, but also its native capacity for innovation."

22:34 "Positioning Sri Lanka as a global hub is not a new thing--historically it has always been central to East-West trade routes."

23:16 "In the Sixties, Lee Kuan Yew came to Sri Lanka and said he wanted to model Singapore on Sri Lanka."

25:50 "Sri Lanka has the potential to be a hub for India/ South Asia, one of the fastest growing regions in the world."

27:10 "Sri Lanka has highly developed human capital."

29:36 "What Sri Lanka can learn from Singapore on balancing great power interests while maintaining its independence."

31:41 "Sri Lanka has arrived at a good understanding with all its regional neighbours."

33:20 "Sri Lanka's trade agreement with India includes the movement of people."

34:40 "Sri Lanka is very different from India."

35:40 "The solution to Sri Lanka's problems lie in economic development and delivering a good quality of life across the country."

40:47 "Sri Lanka will pay off its debt."

42:00 "Sri Lankan companies need to acquire a global mindset."

45:29 "Some recent success stories among Sri Lankan corporates."

48:40 "Advice to private equity and venture capitalists in Sri Lanka."

52:33 "Using Sri Lanka's considerable tourist attractions to entice investors to the country."

56:44 "It will be a tough ride, but it will be a good ride."

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Dev Roy's career has seen more twists and turns than a whodunnit. It took him from India to the United States in the early 1990s, one of many in that country's brain drain, and from there to London, where he became the head of derivatives trading at Barclays up until 2008. Seeing the writing on the wall for the financial industry, he decided to pack up and return to India to become an entrepreneur, following in the footsteps of his own father thirty years earlier. He started a government services company, followed by an edtech company, built a chain of dialysis clinics and then started yet another edtech company. Some of his ventures paid off, some didn't. In the process, he had to unlearn and relearn many lessons about innovation and commerce in the developed versus developing world. After selling his most recent company, he has now gone in house and possibly full circle, heading innovation at Byju's, the multi-billion dollar Indian edtech giant that has seemingly come out of nowhere in the past decade. He is based in London. Recorded June 4, 2021.

Show Notes:

05:47 "The flight to America: the great Indian Brain Drain of the eighties and nineties.”

13:12 "A banker sees the writing on the wall in 2008."

16:22 "BRIC -- a Bloody Ridiculous Investment Concept."

17:59 "Going back to India with three investment theses."

20:08 "The first venture: providing services to rural populations ancillary to government services."

23:13 "The second venture: the underserved dialysis market in Indian healthcare."

28:35 "Why the first venture failed."

30:34 "Lessons from the first venture which were then applied to the second venture."

33:31 "Cracking the nut: his first entrepreneurial success."

40:00 "Next up, the Indian education sector was ripe for disruption."

42:57 "Innovating for the local market."

45:30 "How the pandemic affected Indian entrepreneurs."

48:15 "Fundraising challenges faced by entrepreneurs in India."

51:53 "The financing difficulty faced by entrepreneurs innovating for the local market."

56:50 "What lessons can the Indian government learn from China in terms of creating a more business-friendly company?"

1:03:15 "What are some ways the Indian government can reduce entrepreneurial red tape in India?"

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Robert has had a varied career spanning health and fitness, consultancy, and academia. Currently he works in a regional director role for one of the largest fitness solutions providers in the world. He has a BSc in Sports Science and Management from Brunel University and an MBA from the University of Lincoln. He did his doctoral studies in marketing at a university in Hong Kong. 

He is the author of two books: Marketing Professional Services in Asia (Lexis Nexis, 2009), which was called one of the most indigenous books on Asian marketing by Professor Oliver Yau (Chair Professor of Marketing at City University HK) and Developing a Profitable Practice in Asia (Ark Group, 2010). He has also published over 50 articles in various newspapers and magazines on the topics of strategy, marketing, and leadership. He has spoken at numerous events as a keynote speaker or panelist around Asia. 

Robert is a keen sportsman having played professional football. He still hits the gym five times a week and plays rugby. Recorded June 11, 2021.

Show notes:

• 07:26 “24 hour fitness hits a wellness culture.”
• 08:18 “What happens when Tai Chi meets HIIT?”
• 10:04 “A largely rural population has no need for gyms.”
• 11:03 “COVID has accelerated the move from fitness to wellness worldwide.”
• 13:28 “Have the leisure classes moved on from the gym?”
• 14:58 “Who is the Asian gym bunny?”
• 15:49 “Grandma and Grandpa hit the gym.”
• 17:30 “How to keep gym goers motivated beyond the first six months.”
• 20:25 “Adapting gyms to local cultural environments in Asia.”
• 22:22 “Group classes are especially popular in a collectivist society.”
• 22:50 “There is unlikely to ever be an Asian Jane Fonda.”
• 27:30 “Catering to a tech-forward customer base, Asian gym equipment companies are ahead of their American counterparts when it comes to innovation.”
• 29:46 “A bodybuilder turned academic turned entrepreneur has a unique perspective on narcissism vs. collectivism within the fitness industry.”
• 30:32 “Switching out fantasy for realistic expectations is key to a wellness approach”
• 36:46 “Virtual fitness may not be here to stay.”
• 40:42 “Why all the international fitness operators failed in China.”
• 44:12 “Gym equipment companies can succeed in Asia where gym operators failed.”
• 55:29 “If wellness is becoming an ecosystem, does the fitness club just happened to be one of the spokes of that ecosystem? Or does it become the hub?”

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As a journalist in the 1990s based in Moscow, Jeffrey B. Lilley wrote about the collapse of the Soviet Union and the rise of 15 independent republics. He covered Russia's relations with Asia and reported from three Olympics Games. His first book, China Hands: Nine Decades of Adventure, Espionage and Diplomacy (Public Affairs, 2004) presents a fascinating portrait of an American family’s engagement with Asia in the 20th century. Lilley moved to Central Asia in 2004. During a three-year posting in Kyrgyzstan, he started reading the works of Chinghiz Aitmatov, slept in yurts, drank fermented mare’s milk and hiked in the country’s beautiful mountains. That led to his second book, completed over ten years as he worked in the field of democracy and governance support in Washington, DC and the Middle East. Have the Mountains Fallen? Two Journeys of Loss and Redemption in the Cold War was published by Indiana University Press in 2018. Jeff works as Director of Monitoring and Evaluation for American Councils for International Education, based in Washington, DC. Recorded July 2, 2021

Show Notes:

• 03:00 “I found out my dad was a CIA agent when I was 16.”
• 05:08 “I was a child of the Cold War.”
• 10:13 A privileged expatriate childhood in the German colony of Qingdao in prewar China
• 11:44 The desire to birth a modern China through an ideology that was completely alien and antagonistic to the American way.
• 13:55 A father who fought the spread of communism throughout Southeast Asia through a series of covert operations.
• 16:30 A front row seat to the US-China rapprochement and a belief that the best way to deal with China was to engage with China.
• 18:33 Why is it that democracy in China never followed the trajectory that it did in Korea during Amb. James R. Lilley’s tenure?
• 20:21 One of the best American accounts of the events in Tiananmen Square in 1989
• 24:19 On being a junior high school waiter at a Chevy Chase luncheon with senior Chinese leadership and George H. W. Bush
• 27:44 The classic Yale gentleman
• 35:30 There are more students of English in Russia than there are of Russian in the United States
• 39:00 Covering Kyrgyz acrobats for Ringling, Barnum and Bailey brothers
• 45:25 Chinghiz Aitmatov: one of the most prominent non-Russian authors in the Soviet Union
• 51:32 The Soviet Union wasn’t all bad
• 58:22 The Islamist threat in post-Soviet Central Asia
• 1:02:33 The borders of post-Soviet Central Asia are as random and problematic as the borders in the post-colonial Middle East
• 1:06:20 The bright, smart and plugged-in younger generation of Central Asia

In Notes from Utopia:

• the Tropicalist talks of Karl Wittfogel’s hydraulic civilization paradigm within the Central Asian context

In the Postscript:

• hosts Jesse and Madhavi discuss the changing paradigm of American diplomacy

Links:

• The old China hands
• Wan Chai’s famous Old China Hand pub cleared out
• The old Yale-CIA pipeline
• Must-read books by former US ambassadors
• Parting thoughts for American diplomats: Lessons from 33 years at the State Department
• James R. Lilley obituary
• Small state power in the digital era
• The new cyber normal
• The rise of Information Age statecraft
• Why can’t Central Asia reunite with the Islamic world?
• A brief history of conflict in Kyrgyzstan
• Who was Chingiz Aitmatov?

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Valerie Hansen teaches Chinese and world history at Yale, where she is professor of history. She is the author, most recently, of The Year 1000: When Explorers Connected the World and Globalization Began. In the course of writing The Year 1000, she traveled to some twenty different countries and was a visiting scholar at Xiamen University in China, University of Birmingham in the United Kingdom, and the Collège de France in Paris.

Having lived in China for six plus years, Valerie has visited at least 300 temples, climbed the Great Wall multiple times (once during a lightning storm), and posed next to the Terracotta Warriors eleven times. (All this in the company of her husband and three children)

Her other books include: The Silk Road: A New History, The Open Empire: A History of China to 1800, Negotiating Daily Life in Traditional China, Changing Gods in Medieval China, 1127-1279, and Voyages in World History (co-authored with Kenneth R. Curtis). Recorded April 8, 2021.

Show Notes

02:00 When the future feels especially unpredictable, the study of history can provide guidance

04:20 How to get a job with a PhD in history

05:40 Why is Chinese so difficult?

12:02 How to study Chinese history when your government won't let you go to China

16:29 If you want to study medieval Chinese history you need to speak Japanese

20:47 The true history of China according to the Japanese

22:54 Japan is to Tang China as America is to Tudor England

25:50 Why the dynastic paradigm may not be the most helpful to the historian of China

29:10 Maybe we should stop using the word China altogether

31:50 A language is a dialect with an army

34:48 The many different Chinas

37:57 The Chinese have always been selectively cosmopolitan

44:14 The farther back you go in the past, the less of the role of modern ideology and the more freedom accorded the historian

48:07 On being a non-Chinese historian of China

51:04 Does ancient Chinese history provide a framework for understanding China's great power ambitions today?

In Notes from Utopia, the Tropicalist discusses:

• the one time in Asia when history was written by its losers

In the Postscript, hosts Jesse and Madhavi discuss:

• the current movement underway in much of the world to “decolonize” history and what that means exactly

Links:

• Valerie Hansen's author website
• A Vietnamese history of the Vietnam War
• Chineseness as a nebulous concept
• Why it is important to study Chinese history
• How does history influence Chinese thought and culture today?
• More on Naito Torajiro
• A history of the Russian embassy to China
• The difference between a language and a dialect
• China worries about how study in Taiwan might affect its students

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Michael C. Horowitz is Director of the Perry World House and Richard Perry Professor at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of The Diffusion of Military Power: Causes and Consequences for International Politics (Princeton University Press, 2010) and Why Leaders Fight (Cambridge University Press, 2015). He won the 2017 Karl Deutsch Award given by the International Studies Association for early career contributions to the fields of international relations and peace research. He has published in a wide array of peer reviewed journals and popular outlets. His research interests include the intersection of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and robotics with global politics, military innovation, the role of leaders in international politics, and geopolitical forecasting methodology. Professor Horowitz previously worked for the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy in the Department of Defense. He is affiliated with the Center for a New American Security, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Professor Horowitz received his Ph.D. in Government from Harvard University and his B.A. in political science from Emory University.  Recorded 7 April, 2021.

Show Notes

01: 17 MCH on how the invasion of Iraq kicked off renewed academic interest in international relations

04:24 MCH on how invasion is easy compared to rebuilding a nation

08:02 MCH on the challenge in matching national interest to what the American people will support

10:39 MCH on weighing the need to pull out troops against the risk of a place like Afghanistan becoming a haven for terrorist groups.

12:24 MCH on the tension between the political administration and career civil servants in US foreign policy

14:36 MCH on how new administrations change their policy positions once they come into power because of access to better information

18:54 MCH on bipartisan agreement on the need for a pivot to the Indo-Pacific that was more than merely symbolic

26:05 MCH on the partisanship that characterized the debate around the JCPO/ Iran nuclear deal

38:20 MCH on the Abraham Accords

42:39 MCH on the need for free societies to work together

45:08 MCH on the role of advancements in technology in ensuring the United States’ continued dominance

48:31 MCH on the role of a space mission in military strategy

52:28 MCH on why he continues to be pro-democracy and pro- the United States

In Notes from Utopia, the Tropicalist discusses:

• possible historical reasons for why China seems to have understood how to play Afghanistan better than other superpowers

In the Postscript, hosts Jesse and Madhavi discuss:

• whether the debacle in Afghanistan marks the beginning of the end for a US-led world order

Links:

• Afghanistan crisis puts Blinken in the hot seat
• Kashmir police officer killed in militant attack
• How is the US to make sense of the Afghan adventure?
• '9/11 millionaires' and mass corruption: How American money helped break Afghanistan.
• A liberal world with a liberal China
• Afghan debacle cedes Eurasia to the dragon and bear
• Tajikistan summons US ambassador over Biden's remark
• BBC interview with Georgetown professor of security studies and South Asia expert Dr Christine Fair
• A subdued ashura under Taliban rule
• When Afghanistan was ruled by China
• The battle that changed the course of China's history in Central Asia
• Even Imran Khan is not a fan of US policy in Afghanistan (excerpt from CNN interview)
• Keeping score: a new approach to geopolitical forecasting (Perry World House white paper)
• Covid-19 and the future of the global order (Perry World House working group)
• US, UK and Australia forge military alliance to counter China

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Jonathan Medved is a serial entrepreneur and according to the Washington Post (2007) "one of Israel's leading high-tech venture capitalists". In the 2008 NY Times Supplement "Israel at 60," Medved was named one of the top 10 most influential Americans who have impacted Israel.

Medved is the founder and CEO of OurCrowd, the leading global equity crowdfunding platform for accredited investors and angels. OurCrowd has $1.7B in commitments and has made investments in more than 240 companies, in 25 funds and has seen 46 exits since its launch in February 2013. OurCrowd exits include: Jump Bikes sold to Uber, Briefcam sold to Canon, Argus sold to Continental, Crosswise sold to Oracle, and Replay sold to Intel. Bloomberg Businessweek said in the May 7, 2015 edition that "OurCrowd is hands down the most successful equity-crowdfunding platform in the world right now." The Street.com described OurCrowd as "Crowdfunding for Real Investors."

Prior to OurCrowd, Medved was the co-founder and CEO of Vringo (Nasdaq:VRNG) and the co-founder and General Partner of Israel Seed Partners, with $262M under management. Recorded April 2, 2021.

Show Notes

01:15 JM on his educational and career path and what attracted him to Israel

03:14 JM on the early days of VC in Israel

06:16 JM on how he started OurCrowd

08:55 JM on the role played by venture investments in a portfolio

11:45 JM on OurCrowd’s star performers, including Beyond Meat

16:14 JM on the role that Asian investment has played in the development of the Israeli startup ecosystem

23:36 JM on seeing Israel as part of Asia and the economic implications of the Abraham Accords

24:40 JM on an emerging perception of the Middle East beyond conflict and as an economic powerhouse in its own right

26:51 JM on how the Middle East is the bright spot on the economic horizon and OurCrowd’s moves to take advantage of this growth opportunity

28:51 JM on how the changes in the Middle East appear to be coming from the bottom up as well as top down

31:36 JM on the common heritage of Israelis and Arabs

34:04 JM on how the business culture of the Middle East differs from that in the West

37:50 JM on the small country advantage

41:33 JM on Israel as a leader in agricultural technology

In Notes from Utopia, The Tropicalist:

• discusses a truly surprising bit of Jewish history in Asia

In the Postscript, hosts Jesse and Madhavi discuss:

• the unique confluence of factors that have led to Israel being dubbed a start-up nation
• the possibility of conceiving of Israel as an Asian power

Links:

• Israeli show is a hit in Arab countries
• David Marshall, Singapore's Jewish first chief minister
• In its early years, the state of Israel, conceived similar grounds as Pakistan, faced many similar problems, yet 70 years later, Israel has succeeded where Pakistan has not.
• Afghanistan's last jew?
• Why Israel must win over its Arab population (maybe lessons here for India?)
• That's right, the ex-wife of the current Pakistani PM is Jewish
• And whither Iran in the ongoing reconciliation?
• Behold the rise and rise of the UAE
• Understanding Israel post-Netanyahu
• Traditions of Israeli descent among certain Muslim Groups in South Asia
• Afridi Pathans of Uttar Pradesh: another lost tribe of Israel?
• The Afghan Pashtuns and the the missing Israelite exiles
• The Israelite connections of the Taliban?

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Jeanne Lim is the Co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of beingAI, a transmedia AI company creating AI beings™ that build long-term engagement and trust with digital-native consumers anywhere, anytime, on any device and media platform. Jeanne is an angel investor and advisor of several startups, and a board member of Kami Intelligence, a conversational AI company.

Jeanne has over 25 years of experience in business management and technology marketing. She is the former CEO and CMO of Hanson Robotics, the creator of Sophia the robot, and held marketing leadership roles at Dell, Cisco, Danaher, and Apple, where she was the product and business manager responsible for launching Apple’s most groundbreaking products in the region. She started her career as a Group Management Trainee at John Swire & Sons.

Jeanne is a founder and director of Nama Institute, a not-for-profit organization creating solutions to gamify the learning of wisdom. She is also a Volunteer and Director of Himalayan Consensus Institute, an NGO involved in social enterprise development and climate protection.  

Jeanne has a Ph.D. in integrated and holistic health, an MBA degree from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and a BA degree in Psychology from the University of California, Berkeley. Recorded August 20, 2021

Show Notes:

03:02 JL on her first job and her subsequent move to Apple.

08:26 JL on how she came to appreciate the centrality of the user experience during her years at Apple

09:20 JL on Apple's most valuable asset, its loyal fanbase

11:26 JL on her introduction to yoga, the book that caused a life-changing epiphany and studying energy medicine in Sausalito

16:58 JL on how, upon her return to the corporate world, her colleagues were more open to the wisdom she gained from her time away because of her corporate background

20:10 JL on the process behind Sophia the robot's very human-like interface

23:59 JL on Sophia's ability to empathize

26:35 JL on Sophia's curated machine learning, leading to higher levels of empathy

27:25 JL on Sophia's first creative act as an artist

28:04 JL on her new company Being AI, a new generation of computer user interface and targeting the digital natives of Gen Z

31:36 JL on how to create morally interactive AI characters, such as ZD, with instructive backstories

43:03 JL on a more rational way to think about AI and its place in our lives

47:51 JL on the Chinese social credit system and whether there are lessons in there for the rest of us

54:19 JL on how we might measure the life of an AI Being: by productivity? by its ability to inspire? by its ability to entire into meaningful human relationships?

58:54 JL on where to draw the line on the inexorable march of technology

1:07:11 JL on the need for checks and balances on the power of big tech

Notes from Utopia

• the Tropicalist looks at Japanese robophilia through the lens of comics

In the Postscript

• hosts Jesse and Madhavi discuss why it is that Asians appear to have a greater level of comfort with the role of technology in society.

Links:

• Sophia the robot meets Jimmy Fallon
• The life and death of Shigeru Mizuki
• The philosophy of Studio Ghibli's Hayao Miyazaki
• An Asian perspective on the role of technology and robots in society
• A brief history of Japanese robophilia
• Joi Ito on why Westerners fear robots and the Japanese do not
• What is singularity?
• Yet again, America lags the rest of the world in tech regulation
• Understanding the Chinese view of their social credit system
• Buddhism's (or the American version of it) central role in the development of Silicon Valley
• Enlightenment in an app, the Silicon Valley way
• A short video summary of the key takeaways from The Diamond Cutter by Geshe Michael Roach
• A rather interesting paper contrasting the Protestant ethic with the Buddhist ethic in the realm of business

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David Zweig (Ph.D., University of Michigan, 1983) is Professor Emeritus, Division of Social Science, HKUST and Director, Transnational China Consulting Limited. He is an Adjunct Professor, School of Social Sciences and Humanities, National University of Defence Technology, Changsha, Hunan, and Vice-President of the Center on China’s Globalization (Beijing). He was a Postdoctoral Fellow at Harvard University in 1984-86. He has lived in Hong Kong since 1996 and was a fulltime faculty member at HKUST for 25 years. Dr. Zweig studied in Beijing in 1974-1976 and did field research in rural China in 1980-1981 and 1986. In 1991-92 and 1997, he did field research on China’s “opening to the outside world.” Since 1991, he has surveyed and interviewed academics, scientists, entrepreneurs, and employees who returned from studying abroad, and Mainland-born Chinese working overseas. In June 2012, he gave Li Yuanchao, then head of the Organization Department of the Chinese Communist Party, a critical evaluation of the CCP’s Thousand Talents Plan. He is the author or editor of ten books, including Internationalizing China: domestic interests and global linkages (2002) and Sino-U.S. Energy Triangles: Resource Diplomacy under Hegemony (2016). “’The best are yet to come’: State programs, domestic resistance and reverse migration of high-level talent to China,” appeared in the Journal of Contemporary China (Sept. 2020), and in May 2020, his report, America Challenges China’s National Talent Programs (with Kang Siqin), was published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC. He is a Contributing Writer to the South China Morning Post. Recorded 13 May, 2021.

Show Notes:

05:08 DZ on his days as an aspiring revolutionary at Beijing University during the 1970s

07:13 DZ on basketball and the Gang of Four

10:17 DZ on the first Tiananmen Square protest

16:05 DZ on the second Tiananmen Square protest

19:22 DZ on how the Chinese have always wanted to find a way to get back to their glory days

23:00 DZ on how China is now ready to share the "Chinese model" with the world

27:50 DZ on the different models of economic development that China experimented with during Mao

29:37 DZ on the different models of economic development that China experimented with during Deng

34:00 DZ on some of the key tensions in the Chinese model

36:30 DZ on the Xi Jinping model of development

41:06 DZ on why so many China observers got it wrong and whether things could have been done differently

46:45 DZ on China's undemocratic capitalism

51:54 DZ on the political and economic leanings of the real China

59:29 DZ on the difference between India's and China's treatment of reverse migrant entrepreneurs

1:07 DZ on what the West can learn from China

Notes from Utopia:

• The Tropicalist compares Confucius' junzi, or the moral exemplar for Chinese leadership, with Plato's philosopher king.

Postscript:

• Hosts Jesse and Madhavi discuss how the Chinese leadership conceives of good governance.

Links:

• China's anti-Confucian campaign of 1973-1974
• Why use an ox-cleaver to carve a chicken? The sociology of the junzi ideal
• Yu Keping and Chinese intellectual discourse on good governance
• The first Tiananmen Square incident
• Reverse entrepreneurial migration in China and India
• The West can learn from China
• The uniqueness of China's development model
• Well this is a fun read: a 1976 article on the "Chinese model" of development
• Two articles on Deng Xiaoping here and here
• And let's not forget Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao

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Author Dori Jones Yang is a former foreign correspondent in Asia. Dori grew up in Youngstown, Ohio, the daughter of a bookseller. At Princeton, she majored in history but spent most of her waking hours at the college newspaper, The Daily Princetonian. Eager to explore the world, she taught English in Singapore for two years, where she plunged into the study of Chinese. She traveled all over Asia on a shoestring and returned home through Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran, six months before the Shah fell. To deepen her understanding of Asia, she earned a master’s at Johns Hopkins in international studies, with a focus on China.

She began her career just as Washington and Beijing established diplomatic relations. BusinessWeek offered her dream job: foreign correspondent in Hong Kong. The youngest of the magazine’s foreign bureau chiefs, she covered the negotiations over Hong Kong’s future, the opening of China, and the Tiananmen Square crisis in Beijing. During eight years there, she met and married a Chinese man, Paul Yang, and they had a daughter, Emily. She tells the full story of those amazing years in her memoir, When the Red Gates Opened, publication date September 22, 2020. Disheartened by the Tiananmen crackdown, she moved to Seattle in 1990, where she covered Northwest companies for Business Week and later worked for U.S. News & World Report, covering Silicon Valley. Recorded May 14, 2021.

Shownotes:

03:05 DY on how her upbringing was very different from the life she later chose to lead.

03:42 DY on how a love for foreign languages led her to an international career.

05:33 DY on having to study Mandarin in Singapore as China was closed to Americans.

07:50 DY on witnessing Deng Xiaoping’s first visit to Washington D.C.

08:47 DY on the excitement in the American business community when the US began to normalize relations with China.

11:01 DY on just how communist life in China was in the 1980s.

13:34 DY on shopping for unmentionables in communist China when her Chinese still wasn’t that good.

16:56 DY on witnessing the birth of private enterprise in China.

20:24 DY on how every aspiring capitalist country needs a hyper-capitalist incubator city like Hong Kong.

22:12 DY on the difference between American and Chinese views on capitalism.

24:08 DY on how Reagan-era capitalism shaped her outlook.

26:41 DY on having repeated front row seats to history.

29:03 DY on how so many observers thought Tiananmen would put an end to the Chinese experiment with capitalism.

31:20 DY on the extremely difficult choices that Deng had to make at Tiananmen.

36:38 DY on what it was like to marry into a Chinese family.   

41:37 DY on assertive Chinese women playing against western stereotypes.

45:20 DY on the secret to making cross-cultural marriages work.

50:04 DY on how terrifying it was the break the news of her decision to her parents in Ohio.

54:30 DY on her other publishing projects, both past and upcoming.

1:04:22 DY and JF on the parallels between their lives.

Notes from Utopia

·      The Tropicalist recounts noteworthy Sino-European marriages of the past hundred and fifty years

Postscript

·      Hosts Jesse and Madhavi reminisce about their first experiences in China and discuss China’s amazing transformation over the past three decades.

Links:

·      Eurasian: Mixed identities in the United States, China and Hong Kong, 1842-1943 by Emma Jinhua Teng

·      Dori Jones Yang website and publications

·      Dori Yang gives a speech to the National Committee on US-China Relations

·      China’s economic transformation—and what exactly is socialism with Chinese characteristics

·      China’s breathtaking transformation into a scientific superpower 

·      Street photography reveals China in the 1980s

·      In China, 1980 marked a generational turning point

·      What it was like being an American journalist in China in the 1980s

·      A child of the 80s gives a first person account of growing up in an era of liberalization

·      US-China relations at 40

·      US-China Relations at 40: Reflections on the 40th anniversary of normalization

·      The Nixon-Mao summit: a week that changed the world

· Zhao Ziyang: Purged Chinese Communist reformer is buried

· What Would China Look Like Today Had Zhao Ziyang Survived?

· Zhao Ziyang a cautionary tale for Xi Jinping

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Dr. Tang brings to this position a wealth of medical and pharmaceutical experience. From 2017 to 2019, she held executive positions at Juno Therapeutics, an American biopharmaceutical company with a focus on CAR-T therapy and acquired by Celgene in 2018, and Dendreon, a Seattle-based company that develops personalized immunotherapy to fight cancer. Prior to that, she was the executive medical director for oncology medical affairs at Chicago-based Astellas Pharma. She has been the medical lead for Opdivo or Nivolumab (Anti-PD1), the blockbuster oncology drug from Bristol-Myers Squibb. She started her research career at the National Institutes of Health in Maryland.

She received her undergraduate degree in Traditional Chinese Medicine in Hefei, China, her graduate degree in Western medicine in Guangzhou, China, and her Phd. in pharmacology at the University of Texas in San Antonio. She is also board certified in internal medicine and practised as an internist in Indiana for almost 7 years. Recorded May 28, 2021.

Show Notes:

01:22 HT on her career journey from rural China to CEO of a leading edge biotech firm.

05:38 HT on how her foundational training in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) informed her philosophy of medicine.

07:21 HT on whether TCM can be translated to a Western scientific context.  

08:22 HT on the unregulated neutraceuticals sector and how it cannot be compared to the more rigorous oversight in TCM.

09:29 HT on how her parents’ experience with cancer drove her entrée into the field of immuno-oncology and her work on developing Opdivo, an immune-oncology drug at Bristol-Myers Squib.

11:48 HT on how she came to join her current company, OnQuality, of which she is the CMO, and why their approach to supportive cancer care resonated with her.

13:09 HT on the difference between working for a large pharmaceutical company and early-stage startup.

13:56 HT on the scale of OnQuality’s current operations.

15:15 HT on OnQuality’s approach to cancer supportive care, and what sort of side effects it aims to treat.

19:20 HT on the active ingredient in OnQuality’s treatment.

21:17 HT on the status of the clinical trials of this product.

22:43 HT on cancer rates in the West than in Asia and whether there are certain precautionary measures.

25:37 HT on her view of current status of the Chinese biotech industry.

27:30 HT on the extent to which biotech and pharmaceutical are viewed as a national strategic industry.

28:35 HT on the challenges of doing US China cross border research in general and with the current pandemic.

31:16 HT on trends in outsourced research and testing organizations, whether in China or other parts of the world.

34:29 HT on other Chinese-pioneered innovations in cancer therapy such as CAR-T, drawing upon her work at Juno Therapeutics.

37:21 HT on why OnQuality’s topical treatment is superior to systemic delivery when treating the side effects associated with cancer therapies.

39:24 HT on what she is hearing from her colleagues in China about that nation’s current public health strategies to manage the COVID-19 pandemic and how that compares to the approach in the United States.

Correction

In an earlier version of this episode, when talking about OnQuality’s approach to cancer supportive care, and what sort of side effects it aims to treat, Dr. Tang named “EGFR (Epidermal grow factor receptor)” instead of “VEGFR (vascular endothelia grow factor receptor).” The podcast has been updated to reflect this correction.

In Notes from Utopia:

• The Tropicalist discusses that time during the Black Death when Chinese entrepreneurs tapped into Western demand for Chinese pharmaceuticals.

In the Postscript:

• Hosts Jesse and Madhavi discuss the growing market for modern forms of traditional Asian medicines.

Links:

• Why does acupuncture work? Study finds it elevates nitric oxide, leading to pain reduction.
• An overview of China’s growing CRO (Contract Research Organization) industry.
• The role of VEGF and EGFR inhibition: implications for combining anti-VEGF and anti-EGFR agents.
• What is meant by “downregulation” and “upregulation” of receptors?
• How Indian biotech is driving innovation.
• Cancer immunotherapy and the PD-1/PD-L1 checkpoint pathway.
•  Bristol Myers on alert for potential immuno-oncology pricing war as 3rd launch draws near: exec.
• The next biotech superpower.
• Traditional Chinese medicine accounted for 40% of China’s pharmaceutical market in 2019.
• Chinese herbal medicine used with or without conventional Western therapy for covid-19: an evidence review of clinical studies.
• China has a biotech bubble, but money continues to pour in.
• China’s biotech boom.
• Budget 2021 Expectations: Why Ayurveda sector has high hopes from Modi govt’s Union Budget?
• Why the Coronovirus won’t shake biotechs from investing in China.
• Steps taken by the Indian government to promote the Indian system of medicines.
• Is the Indian government peddling pseudoscience?

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Professor Paranjape has been teaching undergraduate and postgraduate students for almost thirty years. His teaching career has spanned the better part of the globe. A large part of this has been spent in the United States and India, where he has lived and worked. He started his career in 1980, as Teaching Assistant at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. Since 1999, he has been a professor of English at Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi, Centre for English Studies. He has published over 120 academic papers in various refereed journals and edited books within the country and internationally. In addition, he is the author of several poems and short stories, over 200 essays, book reviews, and occasional pieces in academic and popular periodicals in India and abroad. He was a columnist in Sunday Observer, Business Standard, The Pioneer, and Life Positive. He has been twice the chairperson of the Centre for English Studies, JNU, and is a member of the Board of Studies, the Academic Council of JNU, and the Vision Committee of JNU; the Coordinator for UGC Special Assistance Programme, in the Centre for English Studies, JNU from 2003 to 2008; the principal investigator of the Project on Indian Perspectives on Science and Spirituality, from 2006 to 2009. He is the General Editor of a series of reprints of rare and out of print Indian English titles published by the Sahitya Akademi, New Delhi. He is the founding Trustee of Samvad India Foundation, a Delhi-based non-profit, public charitable trust, and also the founding editor of Evam: Forum on Indian Representations, an international bi-annual, multi-disciplinary journal on India. He was the chairperson for the Europe and South Asia region of Pan-Commonwealth panel of judges for the 2008 and 2009 Commonwealth Writers' Prize; he also served as the Indian host judge for the 2010 Prize awarded in New Delhi. Recorded June 8, 2021.

Show Notes

01:36 MP on the idea of Asia as a European creation.

03:30 MP on India as the crossroads of the world and its inherent pluralism.

05:27 MP on the oft ignored scientific and material aspect of Indian culture vs its spiritual aspect.

13:50 MP on how India’s salubrious climate influenced its culture.

14:25 MP on the fallacy of setting up Buddhism in opposition Hinduism.  

15:45 MP on the lens of dharma (rather than religion) to understand the faith traditions of the subcontinent.

18:04 MP on the meaning of the word Hindu.

21:35 MP on the Gandhian view of modernity and environmentalism.

27:35 MP on the problem with imposing external paradigms on the Indian polity and China envy in India.

31:30 MP on the Indian caste system.

38:00 MP on India’s role in the changing world order.

45:30 MP on the pressing need for India to balance its idealism with realpolitik in its foreign policy.

50:20 MP on Narendra Modi as a transformational leader in Indian history.

57:57 MP on why a Western or Chinese modernity may not work for India, and the need to evolve its own version of modernity.

01:04:31 MP on his experiences fostering better understanding between India and China.

01:06:02 MP on the challenges facing classical liberalism, from cultural revolutionaries to hyper-globalization.

In Notes from Utopia:

• the Tropicalist discusses the start of pan-Asianism

In the Postscript:

• hosts Jesse and Madhavi discuss the competing ideas of India, the failings of the Nehruvian idea of India and flesh out the meaning of Hindutva.

Links:

On Hindu, Hindustan, Hinduism and Hindutva

Sarvakar: Hindutva and critique of caste system

A misunderstood legacy: V. D. Sarvakar and the creation of Hindutva

Book review: Savarkar: echoes from a forgotten past, 1883-1924 by Vikram Sampath

Sarvakar had many faces — but Hindutva has only one

How the Supreme Court viewed words ‘Hindu’, ‘Hinduism’ & ‘Hindutva’ in rulings

India’s ruling National Democratic Alliance is no longer quite national

Hindutva is not the same as Hinduism said Savarkar

India's Modi says new citizenship law is not against Muslims

Essentials of Hindutva

A Pakistani perspective on the new India

In search of the real Savarkar

The shattering honesty of V. S. Naipaul

The idea of India: a historical corrective

The truth about Sardar Patel on Kashmir

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Links

• Asia’s Richest in 2021.
• How selling water can make you China’s richest man.
• Midea expands overseas production as it eyes 10 percent global market share.
• Midea expands production in India.
• Supply chains turns to India, Vietnam to diversify outsourcing.
• China’s home delivery services way ahead of the pack.
• The Hin Leong Collapse.
• Luckin’ Coffee fraud is a morality tale for investors.
• Demand for herbal remedies in Indonesia rises during COVID.
• Emtek bets heavily on streaming and Indonesia’s digital economy.
• India’s vaccine billionaires.
• India’s COVID billionaires in other sectors.
• Homegrown social media alternatives poised to take off post COVID.
• Malaysia’s rubber glove tycoons ride the skyrocketing demand for protective gear.
• Pakistan begs China for power debt forgiveness.

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Shownotes: 

• 01:44 NT on his cosmopolitan upbringing between Sri Lanka, India and England. 
• 03:30 NT on his start at the Asian investment bank Crosby during the go-go 90s. 
• 06:30 NT on his ringside seat during the Asian Financial Crisis and lessons learned from that crisis. 
• 15:43 NT on the common theme underlying investing in the COVID era. 
• 18:54 NT on the red flags investors should be on the look out for. 
• 21:42 NT on the place for precious metals in a COVID portfolio. 
• 24:07 NT on some problems facing the traditional Singapore Inc. 
• 25:17 NT on what went wrong at Hin Leong, a Singaporean oil trading company that recently declared bankruptcy. 
• 27:56 NT on comparing the e-commerce landscape in Southeast Asia versus China. 
• 33:33 NT on the next big opportunities in Southeast Asian e-commerce. 
• 39:00 NT on where to look for investment opportunities in post-pandemic life. 
• 44:30 NT on the prospects for greater economic integration within ASEAN. 
• 53:12 NT on Sri Lanka’s close economic partnership with China. 

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Links

• The Attack of the Civilization-State (an eloquent explanation by an EU diplomat on the Asian concept of statehood).
• In this podcast, one of India’s foremost defence commentators, Maroof Raza, explains India’s position in the new geopolitics. Go to 28:00.
• Wise words from Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohammed on the Quad.
• A Brookings scholar on the folly of thinking that Palestine could be sidelined.
• What is the UAE hoping to achieve between India and Pakistan?
• Shifting alliances? A deeper look at the recent China-Iran deal and the newly warm relationship between India and Israel.
• Also: should the US-Iran nuclear deal be revived?
• The Russian perspective: an engaging blog (in English) by the US-based Russian military analyst Andrei Martyanov.
• Old friends are new friends: China and Russia in joint space exploration.
• Why China takes the recent Suez Canal mishap very seriously.

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Recorded Mach 28, 2021. Eliot A. Cohen is the Robert E. Osgood Professor of Strategic Studies and Dean of Johns Hopkins SAIS. After receiving his BA and PhD degrees from Harvard, he taught there and at the US Naval War College before coming to Johns Hopkins SAIS in 1990. His books include, most recently, The Big Stick: The Limits of Soft Power and the Necessity of Military Force (2017) as well as Conquered into Liberty: Two Centuries of Battle along the Great Warpath that Made the American Way of War (2012) and Supreme Command: Soldiers, Statesmen, and Leadership in Wartime (2003), among others. He served in the US Army Reserve, was a director in the Defense Department’s policy planning staff, led the US Air Force’s multi-volume study of the first Gulf War, and has served in various official advisory positions. In 2007-2009 he was Counselor of the Department of State, serving as Senior Adviser to Secretary Condoleezza Rice, focusing on issues of war and peace, including Iraq and Afghanistan. He is a contributing editor at The Atlantic, and his commentary has also appeared in The Washington Post, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and on major television networks.

Shownotes

03:49 EC on the role of military and defense in the context of a global world order.  

05:47 EC on the role of non-US military in the international system.   

08:08 EC on the increasing role of cyber warfare as a tool of military conflict.  

09:22 EC on a paradigm for understanding China's new role within the international system.  

12:40 EC on whether different political systems can co-exist peacefully.  

14:45 EC on whether the West was overly optimistic about China's embrace of Western political norms.  

17:07 EC on the recent détente in the Middle East and whether it can provide a model for other interminable conflicts in the region.  

22:02 EC on the role of the Israeli military in Middle East relations.  

22:45 EC on the quadrilateral security dialogue between India, Australia, New Zealand and Japan (Quad).  

26:35 EC on the continued importance of national sovereignty in our era of hyper-globalization.  

29:09 EC on serving under former US Secretary of State, Condoleeza Rice.  

32:03 EC on why he is optimistic about the US in the long term.

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Links:

• Epidemics and society: from the Black Death to the present.
• How Will COVID-19 Change the World? Historian Frank Snowden on Epidemics From the Black Death to Now: Interview with Dr. Frank M. Snowden.
• COVID-19: Rethinking the lockdown groupthink.
• Did lockdowns work? An economist’s cross-country comparison.
• Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions on Covid-19 transmission in 190 countries from 23 January to 13 April 2020.
• Correcting misperceptions about the Swedish strategy.
• Opinion: Undocumented Chinese workers in underground factories producing goods for luxury fashion houses in Italy could have spread the virus from China to Italy.
• Russians reject vaccines as Kremlin fears new Covid-19 wave.
• Glacial pace of vaccines threatens Japan’s Olympic moment.
• One vaccine dose can nearly halve transmission risk.
• The next global depression is coming and optimism won’t slow it down.
• The destructive force and failure of QE.
• Population trends in China and India: demographic dividend or demographic drag? 
• The future of a demographic overachiever: long term implications of the demographic transition in China.
• Can China avoid a growth crisis?
• Triffin’s dilemma for global reserve currencies.
• Hugo Stinnes, the Weimar’s inflation king.

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Show Notes

• 07:48 JR on the difference between depressions and recessions 
• 15:40  JR on being raised with a depression mentality through the 50s and 60s, long after the last great depression.
• 20:20 JR on how the botched policy response to the pandemic caused the depression.
• 23:32 JR on how this was the greatest economic blunder in history.
• 27:30 JR on the disastrous politicization of the virus.
• 30:00 JR  tracks the initial spread of the virus. 
• 37:23 JR on the increasing impotence of central banks.
• 39:43 JR on "Chinese levels" of saving in the US economy.
• 43:18 JR on the multiple asset bubbles, whether in crypto, stock market or residential housing.
• 47:00 JR on how small businesses have borne the brunt of the pandemic.
• 49:00 JR on the looming risk of systemic failure.
• 52:00 JR on the structural problems and demographic time bomb in the Chinese economy. 
• 1:01 JR explains the Triffin dilemma.
• 1:02 JR on the viability of a yuan denominated bond.
• 1:03:44 JR on the winning strategies in his new book The New Great Depression.

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Links:

• Could Bitcoin and Other Cryptos Be Banned in the US?
• Trump’s Last-Minute Bitcoin Rule Hit the Wrong Mark
• Student Coin, the first wide-scale tokenization platform—think the early days of the Internet and social media
• Understanding the Hawala system
• Cryptos are gaining currency among respected brands
• Crypto Havens Lure Firms Fleeing South Africa Regulator Fear
• Beyond Tesla: Cpopular Chinese beauty app buys $40 million of Bitcoin and Ethereum
• A Millennial Crypto Victory Bigger than the Price of Bitcoin
• Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman clarifies the government’s position on cryptocurrency
• The Bitcoin Association of Hong Kong
• China Sets Sights on a Digital Currency to Challenge the US dollar
• Peter Theil wonders if the Chinese are backing Bitcoin to bring down the US dollar
• A summary of Japan’s progressive crypto regulations from my old law firm

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Show Notes

• 00:02:20 LAW on Austrian economics as a jumping off point to understand Bitcoin
• 00:06:50 LAW on how universities have had relatively little engagement with Bitcoin
• 00:08:40 LAW on the purity and energy of the early Bitcoin meetups
• 00:12:00 LAW on Bitcoin arbitrage between Hong Kong and China in the early days
• 00:14:50 LAW on the state of Bitcoin regulation in Hong Kong
• 00:19:30 Prominent HK investor David Webb on Bitcoin
• 00:21:19 LAW explains the nuts and bolts of Bitcoin
• 00:26:30 LAW explains the workings of blockchain technology
• 00:29:55 LAW on the Bitcoin halvening
• 00:33:10 LAW on how verification works in Bitcoin
• 00:37:32 LAW on the free rider problem in Bitcoin verification
• 00:39:37 LAW on Bitcoin’s most famous error
• 00:42:10 LAW on the cost of maintaining Bitcoin as a form of money
• 00:43:50 LAW on Bitcoin mining in China
• 00:48:16 LAW on Chinese government policy towards Bitcoin
• 00:49:42 LAW on how Chinese investors are using Bitcoin
• 00:53:03 LAW on how other cryptos like ETH stack up against Bitcoin
• 00:55:30 LAW answers critics who claim Bitcoin isn’t a real technological breakthrough but a speculative tool
• 00:58:08 LAW posits that Bitcoin is not a threat to governments
• 01:00:11 LAW on how it’s almost impossible for governments to enact effective bans on Bitcoin
• 01:01:41 LAW on how Japan is exceptionally progressive in Bitcoin regulation
• 01:02:38 LAW on the crypto scene in Southeast Asia
• 01:04:22 LAW on whether Bitcoin can overcome its innate volatility to become money
• 01:06:04 LAW on Bitcoin as part of an investment portfolio
• 01:07:57 LAW on why governments of small countries have incentives to get on the crypto train
• 01:11:38 LAW on what Bitcoin could offer financial centres like Singapore and Hong Kong in order to compete against digital economy vanguard nations like Estonia

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Links:

• The Legacies of Forced Freedom: China’s Treaty Ports
• Confucian Cosmopolitanism (Note: Start at p. 34)
• China’s Frontiers and the Encounter with the Sea through Early Imperial History
• Together They Might Make Trouble: Cross-Cultural Interactions in Tang Dynasty Guangzhou
• Medieval Tamil-Language Inscriptions in China
• Boundaries and Beyond: China’s Maritime Southeast in Late Imperial Times
• The Way of the Barbarians: Redrawing Ethnic Boundaries in Tang and Song China (draft thesis available here and refer to p.xx for an interesting discussion on how the Chinese viewed Indians)
• The Muslim Merchants of Pre-Modern China
• If you want to get a feel for the Hong Kong of Alan Zeman’s youth, there’s no better chronicle in the English language than Jan Morris’ Hong Kong (1997). Get a taste of her writing in her Guardian piece on post-handover Hong Kong, The View Downhill
• Return Migration from Canada to Hong Kong
• China’s Systemic Advantages for Tech-Enabled Innovations
• Is the Greater Bay Area China’s Future?
• China’s Greater Bay Area Initiative
• HSBC Doubles Down on China with New Greater Bay Area Office
• Making it in the Megacity: China’s GBA Is Increasingly the Career Destination of Choice for Ambitious Young Researchers

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Show Notes

• 01:30 AZ describes his youth as a newspaper boy and retail salesman in Montreal
• 06:38 AZ on how he made his first million
• 06:50 AZ on how the Canadian taxman prompted him to move to the other side of the world
• 11:46 AZ on the the secret to doing business across cultures
• 15:20 AZ on the beginning’s of Hong Kong’s storied nightlife district, Lan Kwai Fong
• 24:12 AZ on taking Ocean Park into battle with Disney and winning
• 31:39 AZ on how to take care of your money
• 35:40 AZ on being on the factory floors of the New Territories versus the clubby world of Hong Kong
• 40:08 AZ on his momentous decision to give up his Canadian passport and become a Chinese citizen
• 43:15 AZ on why China seems to be on track to overtake the American economy
• 54:36 AZ on the current situation in Hong Kong
• 57:25 AZ on the Greater Bay Area
• 01:03:18 AZ on the current wave of out-migration from Hong Kong

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Links:

• Eurocentrism and the Origins of Capitalism
• The Sogdians: Influencers on the Silk Road
• The Formation of Modern Turkic “Ethnic” Groups in Central and Inner Asia
• Steppe Nomads in the Eurasian Trade
• The Intricacies of Pre-Modern Asian Connections
• The Jews of Central Asia
• Siena on the Silk Roads: Ambrogio Lorenzetti and the Mongol Global Century, 1250-1350
• The Republic of Genoa and Its Maritime Empire
• The World’s First Modern, Public Bank
• Money Changes Everything: How Finance Made Civilization Possible
• Christopher Columbus and the Bank of St. George
• The Anarchy

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Prior to Fresco Capital, Furuzonfar built and scaled businesses in data analytics, wealth management and investment advisory. He started his career with Ernst & Young.

Furuzonfar graduated from the University of Hong Kong with a BA in economics and finance (with honours). He is a TEDx license holder, a mentor for the Laudato Si Challenge, a mentor for the Founder Institute, and is an active member of the Hong Kong University and St. John’s College Alumni Club. He is a fellow of the Shahidi Foundation and is passionate about initiatives that develop cultural diversity and economic empowerment. Recorded on January 12, 2021.

Show Notes

• 4:11 FZ on global seed investing
• 5:50 FZ on how his unique upbringing prepared him for this relatively young field
• 8:01 FZ on the cultural differences between the Middle East and Northern Europe
• 12:44 FZ on what prompted him to shift his focus to Asia and Hong Kong and first impressions
• 15:12 FZ on the Fresco approach to investing—what are the lenses they use
• 18:30 FZ on the nexus between culture and venture capital, with specific examples
• 21: 46 FZ on the cultural differences among their portfolio companies in various markets
• 28:00 FZ on the history of venture capital and whether there are equivalent forms of financing elsewhere
• 32:46 FZ on whether there is a regional identity in Central Asia
• 34:23 FZ on the ethnic diversity of Central Asia
• 37:30 FZ on the historical economic importance and unique socio-political organization of Central Asia
• 40:40 FZ on the golden age of Central Asia
• 48:13 FZ on how Central Asia can avoid the pitfalls of over reliance on natural resources
• 50:26 FZ on the modern day economies of Central Asia: strengths and weaknesses
• 54:07 FZ Central Asia’s relationship with its neighbouring superpowers.

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Links:

• The Singapore Way of Multiculturalism: Western Concepts/ Asian Cultures
• Educating Multicultural Citizens from a Confucian Heritage
• Singapore Plans to Revive Study of Confucianism
• The Elusive Goal of Nation Building: Asian/ Confucian Values and Citizenship Education in Singapore during the 1980s
• The Crisis of “Deculturalization” and the Invention of Asian Values
• Singapore: The World’s Richest City
• A Tale of Two Cities: A Comparison of Hong Kong and Singapore’s Early Strategies for the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)
• Innovation and Government Intervention: A Comparison of Singapore and Hong Kong
• Singapore Roars: Could Asia’s “Lion City” Be an Alternative Hong Kong?
• Singapore and Hong Kong: Comparative Perspectives on the 20th Anniversary of Hong Kong’s Handover to China
• Oei Hui Lan at the National Portrait Gallery
• The Counter-Imperialist: Reflections on Bogdanovich’s Saint Jack (1979) by a Singaporean

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Show Notes

• 4:03 KK talks about his path to success and how he would advise young Asians wanting to pursue a creative career
• 10:11 KK talks about his childhood and how to parent for creativity
• 13:53 KK on the cultural difference between Asians from Asia and Asian Americans
• 17: 21 KK on how the current wave of wealthy émigrés from China are influencing the Asian American zeitgeist
• 20: 30 KK on the phenomenon of “international Asians”
• 22:56 KK on the spirit of enterprise in the new Asia and what powers the drive to achieve characteristic of so many overseas Asian communities
• 26:51 KK on connoisseurship in Asia
• 30:57 KK on how Asia will define the new modern
• 36:23 KK on world cities across the globe, what drives their rise and fall, and life in LA vs. NY vs. Singapore vs. HK
• 42:21 KK on the process behind his new novel, Sex and Vanity
• 46:03 KK on his upcoming television and film projects and the process of taking his stories from print to film
• 48:03 KK on how he feels about the Crazy Rich Asians movie
• 52:45 KK on what inspires him
• 54:46 KK on how Asia fared so much better than the West in its response to COVID
• 57:47 KK on what he’s looking forward to doing post-COVID

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• The Tropicalist recounts the history of previous pivotal developments in information and communications technology and how civilizations that failed to grasp the importance of such developments eventually lost out

Jesse and Madhavi discuss:

• 5G: hype vs reality
• the rollout of 5G in economically developed parts of Asia versus less developed parts of Asia
• the possibility of 5G being “galapagosized”
• the wisdom in the Chinese approach to tech regulation

Links:

• Interview with Morris Chang of TSMC (podcast)
• Silicon Valley Rooted in Backing from US Military
• Cold War Armory: Military Contracting in Silicon Valley
• Japan Considers TSMC Tie-Up to Boost Chip Industry, Yomiuri Says
• China Set to Pass Its Own Law Protecting Vital Tech From U.S.
• UK Includes Huawei Ban in Telecoms Security Bill
• Chinese Hackers Have Pillaged Taiwan’s Semiconductor Industry
• Chinese Scientists Claim Breakthrough in Quantum Computing
• Semiconductor Industry Is the New Battleground in Great Power Conflict
• Galapagos Effect: How Can Japan Capture Global Value from Japan’s Technologies and New Business Models?
• Text of Huawei’s Meng Wanzhou’s Speech at the 2014 Huawei ICT Finance Forum
• Kondratieff Wave Theory
• Paper Before Print: The History and Impact of Paper in the Islamic World
• Sanctioned: The Arrest of a Telecom Giant (podcast)
• Xi Warns Against Tech Excess in Sign Crackdown Will Widen

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Bruck’s career spans nearly four decades in senior positions in technology companies, banks and investment funds, while based in Silicon Valley, New York, Beijing, Shanghai, and now Hong Kong. He started his career as a software engineer working on chip design for Intel before moving to marketing, business development and finance.  During his career at Intel, Bruck established the “Wintel” alliance between Intel and Microsoft while he was heading up Intel’s strategy in his role as Chief of Staff to the legendary CEO, Andy Grove. Bruck opened the China market as General Manager of Intel China. 

His expertise spans advanced semiconductors, video games, enterprise software and tech finance.  He is passionate about technology’s role in society and is committed to assisting the next generation of entrepreneurs and innovators. Recorded November 7, 2020.

Show Notes:

• 04:00 In layman terms, MB charts the evolution of the semiconductor industry from punch cards to vacuum tubes to transistors to silicon-based integrated circuits
• 06:08 MB on the the role played by the US government and military in the development of the commercial electronic computing industry
• 20:26 MB on how Japan drove the invention of the microprocessor and eventually got better at designing memories than the Americans and how Intel responded by turning to CPUs and the nascent personal computing industry
• 26:07 MB on the mercantilist approach taken by Japan’s METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) in fostering Japanese dominance in the memory business
• 28:39 MB on how domestic developments in the US drove the internationalization of semiconductor manufacturing
• 31:51 MB on how international students from Asia, such as Morris Chang of TSMC, eventually helped grow key technology industries in their home countries.
• 34:00 MB on how the horizontalisation of the PC industry contributed to the globalization of its component parts
• 40:12 MB on the transition to the mobile era
• 47:30 MB on who sets the industry standards and how this impacts the geography of innovation
• 54:03 MB on the China tech landscape and one internet for China and one for the rest of the world
• 59:30 MB on why the current 5G moment is so pivotal

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• The Tropicalist looks at examples from history to determine whether its possible to import foreign cultural values without localizing and thus transforming them

Jesse and Madhavi discuss:

• the historical context to China’s approach to its relationship with the US
• the applicability of Cold War paradigms to a fundamentally different era and great power conflict
• whether a clash of civilizations is inevitable between the US and China?
• the difference between the rhetoric on both sides and the reality

Links:

• Confucius and the Moral Basis for Bureaucracy
• One-page summary of key events in China’s relationship with the West  
• The Chinese Experience of Rapid Modernization: Sociocultural Changes, Psychological Consequences?
• Contrasting Visions: US, China and World Order
• Cultural Bias in the Perception of Foreign-Policy Events
• Understanding China’s new “wolf warrior” diplomacy
• EU-China Investment Deal: Has China Revived Its European Diplomacy?
• U.S. Doesn’t Need Europe’s Help in China Trade War
• Why Europe’s China Deal Will Poison Transatlantic Relations
• Arrest of 53 Activists: Hong Kong’s Tightening Grip
• Lessons on diplomacy from the British empire

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Show Notes:

• 2:25 RC on how cultural differences between the two civilizations have determined the course of the US-China relationship
• 11:32 RC on how the Chinese view the tradeoffs inherent in modernization and whether they see westernization as a prerequisite to becoming modern
• 16:11 RC on how very few policymakers in the West are actually familiar with China’s history nor have ever visited China, yet do not hesitate to make pronouncements on the relationship
• 19:26 RC on how American exceptionalism colours America’s approach to the US-China relationship and whether he thinks that is advisable
• 23:29 RC on how the changing tenor of the US-China relationship has impacted the EU’s relationship with China
• 29:00 RC on how European powers must navigate their transition from dominant players to client states
• 34:40 RC on the moral philosophy of the Chinese bureaucracy, which is based on extremely long-standing Confucian traditions
• 38:08 RC on the crisis in Hong Kong
• 47:31 RC on the future of the US-China relationship, whether it can be salvaged and whether China is really gunning for number one.
• 53:44 RC on what Americans could learn from the British on diplomacy.

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