Unhedged

How an energy crisis unfolds

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 20:00:00 GMT

World energy supplies have been disrupted by the Iran war. But how long will they take to return to normal after the war is over? Today on the show, Katie Martin and the FT’s energy editor Malcolm Moore game out global energy outcomes. Also, they go long coal and short the wisdom of the markets.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Is this social media's tobacco moment?

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 20:00:00 GMT

A jury in a Los Angeles court has found Meta and Google liable for $6m in damages in a civil suit alleging their social media products are designed to be addictive to children. It could pave the way for thousands of similar suits. Today on the show, technology reporter Hannah Murphy joins Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin to discuss what the verdict means. Also, they go long cold brews and long a Netflix documentary about America's Next Top Model.

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For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The rout in UK and European bonds

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 20:00:00 GMT

The plunge in UK and European bonds has been expensive for hedge funds, whose bets have gone sideways. But it could be expensive for regular people too, at least according to Katie Martin and her guest, the FT’s senior markets correspondent Ian Smith. Today on the show, they unpack how a drop in the value of European debt will drive up costs for the average person. Also, they go long Harry Potter on television and short boy kibble.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Why are markets listening to Trump?

Tue, 24 Mar 2026 20:00:00 GMT

When President Donald Trump talks, markets listen. But why? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out if the markets really are chasing the news and if that makes any sense whatsoever. Then they discuss gold’s steep drop and an awfully suspicious trade in the oil markets. Also they go long Saturday Night Live in the UK and short being tall.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The Fed’s juggling act

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 20:00:00 GMT

The war has caused a spike in oil prices, which will pass costs through the economy. But if the economy is slowing, will there be enough inflation to send interest rates back up again? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong dissect Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell’s Wednesday comments about the conflicting signals in the economy. Also they go long clean air and long March Madness.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Are the markets right or wrong about Iran?

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 20:00:00 GMT

Oil is up, bombs are falling and investors are increasing their piles of cash. But the market isn’t far off its highs. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to square the dismal news with the sanguine market. Also they go short quarterly reporting and long introspection.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Uncomfortable moments in private credit

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 20:00:00 GMT

There has been a steady trickle of bad news in private credit, and investors have been having a hard time getting their money out of funds. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong are joined by the FT’s US private equity and deals editor Antoine Gara. The three of them try to figure out if a small financial crisis is brewing. Also they go long 10-year Treasuries, long Ukraine ETFs and long the New York Jets.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Wildest day for oil ever

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 20:00:00 GMT

Over the weekend, the price of oil had its biggest intraday swing on record, bouncing between $84 and $119 per barrel in just 23 hours. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin survey the wreckage, and try to figure out if the price of oil is driving policy in Washington. Also they go long neckties and Korean food crazes.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The case against stablecoins

Thu, 05 Mar 2026 21:00:00 GMT

The Genius Act allowed stablecoins to trade in the US as a legal form of currency. But can that really work? Today on the show, financial historian Brendan Greeley joins Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong to discuss if it makes sense to introduce a digital competitor to the dollar. Also they go long the Maidstone football team, short March and short tax trips to Dubai.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Energy prices up, markets down

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 21:00:00 GMT

The US attack on Iran has muddled expectations for the year, especially in energy markets. Today on the show, US energy editor Jamie Smyth joins Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong to talk about Tehran’s counterattacks on US allies including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Also, they go short private assets and long UK pastry chain Greggs.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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What the actual tariff?

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 21:00:00 GMT

The Supreme Court just overturned President Donald Trump’s use of the emergency powers provision to impose tariffs. Now importers are suing for refunds, and the president has scrambled to leverage another old law to find a legal way to slow imports. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong are joined by Alan Beattie, of the FT’s Trade Secrets newsletter, to sort the mess out. Also, they go short the “Halo” trade and long irony.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The report that rattled Wall Street

Tue, 24 Feb 2026 21:00:00 GMT

On Monday, a report by Citrini Research appeared to rattle traders on Wall Street. Its thesis was that massive efficiency increases would lead to widespread job losses and a disastrous fall in consumption. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong discuss the doomsday scenario. Also, they go short New York in the snow and short shrinkflation.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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How low can the dollar go?

Thu, 19 Feb 2026 21:00:00 GMT

World markets continue to be down on the dollar. Today on the show, Katie Martin and senior markets correspondent Ian Smith discuss how inflation, politics and trade are weighing on the once mighty greenback. Also, they go short curling and long wealth managers in the age of AI.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Introducing 'Behind the Money': Can Wells Fargo make it in investment banking?

Tue, 17 Feb 2026 21:00:00 GMT

For more than 170 years, Wells Fargo built a reputation as an all-American Main Street lender. Now, it is charting a new path and pushing into investment banking, something that many other banks have tried and failed to do. The FT’s US banking editor Joshua Franklin and US banking correspondent Akila Quinio discuss what Wells Fargo does — and doesn’t have — going for it as it pursues this strategy.

Clips from, CNN, CBS News, CNBC, CNN, HBO, KPIX, KRON4, NBC News, Wells Fargo

The FT does not use generative AI to voice its podcasts.

New episodes available on Acast, Apple Podcasts, Pocket Casts or Spotify.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Is AI creating jobs?

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 21:00:00 GMT

Buried deep in the heart of this week’s US jobs report is a hint that companies may be increasing hiring to build all those AI data centres we keep hearing about. Also on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin parse what the report says about the US consumer, and what it means for US interest rate policy. And they go long volatility and short sugar.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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What Takaichi's win means for global markets

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 21:00:00 GMT

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her Liberal Democratic Party dominated in a snap election on Sunday and the country’s stock market loved it. This week, the Nikkei 225 hit an all-time high. Today on the show, Hakyung Kim joins Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong to discuss what the election means for markets in Japan, the US and Europe. Also, they go short Alphabet’s 100-year bond, streaming services and the luge.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The triangle of confusion

Thu, 05 Feb 2026 21:00:00 GMT

Markets, data and sentiment are often looked to as indicators of the present and guides to the future. But these data points aren’t helping as much as they used to. Today on the show, Robert Armstrong, Hakyung Kim and John Foley try to understand why major numbers are in such constant conflict. Also, they go long Matcha and long data centres in space.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The next Fed chair

Tue, 03 Feb 2026 21:00:00 GMT

President Donald Trump announced his pick for the next Fed chair at the end of last week. It was Kevin Warsh, a former member of the Fed Board of Governors. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong dissect Warsh’s previous statements and try to figure out how being in charge will change his outlook. Also they go long theme parks and short grindcore.

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For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The incredible shrinking dollar

Thu, 29 Jan 2026 21:00:00 GMT

Since the second inauguration of US President Donald Trump, the dollar has been in a slow but persistent decline. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out what is happening and if it will continue. Also they make a bold prediction for the next chair of the Federal Reserve.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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How does a gold rush end?

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 21:00:00 GMT

Gold and silver are both racing to record highs. But can it last? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong talk about factors that might put the brakes on the frenzy. Also they go long the Melania Trump documentary and long the New England Patriots.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Taco FTW

Thu, 22 Jan 2026 21:00:00 GMT

The “Taco trade” proved profitable again this week as US President Donald Trump walked back his proposals for invading Greenland. ("Taco", of course, is the acronym for "Trump always chickens out".) Gone too are threatened tariffs on allies that stood up to defend the island. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Lex editor John Foley discuss the president’s retreat and the market’s joy. Also they go short Grønlandsbanken and long wintry days in New York.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Trade wars, real wars and the markets

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 21:00:00 GMT

As Donald Trump threatens a takeover of Greenland, Europe responds with military deployments, sending the markets into a low-key swivet. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Alphaville reporter Toby Nangle discuss what financial weapons the EU has to defend against an increasingly warlike US president. Also they go long Dutch tech company ASML and long a return to live television.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Introducing 'Business History': Young Warren Buffett

Fri, 16 Jan 2026 21:00:00 GMT

We’re sharing a preview of another podcast we think you’ll enjoy, Business History. Former Planet Money hosts Jacob Goldstein and Robert Smith examine the surprising stories of businesses big and small, bringing to life the greatest innovations, the boldest entrepreneurs and the craziest mavericks in the archives of commerce and finance.

Today’s episode: How Warren Buffett rose from obscurity to become one of the richest people in the world. To hear more, find Business History on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get podcasts.

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Stock picking champs 2025

Thu, 15 Jan 2026 21:00:00 GMT

The results of the FT’s 2025 stock picking contest are in! Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong and the FT’s asset management reporter Alan Livsey take a look at the winning and losing ideas of 2025. Also they go short prediction markets and short the dollar.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Showdown at the Federal Reserve

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 21:00:00 GMT

On Sunday night, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell took the extraordinary step of issuing a video saying he is being threatened with a criminal indictment because the Fed failed to follow "the preferences of the President." Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong ask if the Fed can survive a Soviet-style smear campaign and legal attack. Also they go long print and long Are You Dead?, an app for checking if you’re dead or not.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Outlook 2026

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 21:00:00 GMT

Markets continue their sunny cruise, whistling along as the world is upended by nationalistic meddling in both corporations and other countries. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong discuss the stunning resilience of the global economy. Also, they go short bank consolidation and short Grok nudifying people.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Imperialism and the markets

Tue, 06 Jan 2026 21:00:00 GMT

US President Donald Trump has attacked Venezuela and removed its leader. The markets remain nonchalant. Does that make sense? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin speak with US Energy Editor Jamie Smyth about regime change, oil and the global economy. Also they go long cricket in Australia and long US markets.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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From Behind the Money: Private equity’s push into Japan

Thu, 01 Jan 2026 21:00:00 GMT

Unhedged is on a break over the holidays, so we wanted to share an episode from our fellow FT podcast, Behind the Money. When international private equity groups first entered Japan at the turn of the 21st century, newspapers criticised them as vulture funds and politicians steered clear of public contact. Today, it’s a different story. Dozens of buyout groups have set up in the country and the establishment is courting them. The FT’s Tokyo correspondent David Keohane and Tokyo bureau chief Leo Lewis explain why there’s been a shift, and how private equity’s presence may rejuvenate Japanese corporates.

Subscribe to Behind the Money.

This is a repeat of an episode published on Behind the Money, a sister podcast of Unhedged, on Nov. 26, 2025.

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Quiz show!

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Katie Martin spent a restful 20 hours on a plane coming up with some devilishly hard questions for her colleagues, Rob Armstrong and John Foley. Today on the show, we find out who is the best at making wild guesses. Also, all three unveil their new year’s resolutions.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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From Against the Rules: Michael Burry Speaks

Thu, 25 Dec 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Here’s another podcast we think you’ll enjoy, The Big Short Companion from Against the Rules, hosted by bestselling author Michael Lewis. Lewis’ popular book The Big Short is 15 years old, and to mark the occasion, Lewis is looking back on how the 2008 financial crisis still affects the world today.

Investor Michael Burry was one of the first to see the subprime housing market crisis coming, and now, he’s back in the headlines, this time for betting against a very different kind of boom: he’s taken short positions in tech titans Nvidia and Palantir. In this episode, Michael Lewis sits down with Burry for a rare interview. Find The Big Short Companion from Against the Rules wherever you get podcasts and The Big Short audiobook wherever you get audiobooks.

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We take some questions

Tue, 23 Dec 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Why do companies care about their share price so much? Is Switzerland in danger of losing its banks? What would regime change in Venezuela do to global oil markets? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong answer listener questions. Or try to. Also, they go short gift cards and long crypto islands.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Three numbers that matter

Thu, 18 Dec 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong take a look at some revealing numbers about jobs, inflation and borrowing against the Treasuries market. Also they go short “funny” videos from private equity and short Wham!

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Gold, silver and crypto

Tue, 16 Dec 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Silver is on a tear this year, outperforming gold and even crypto. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin look at the markets for substitutes for fiat currency. Also they go long the Christmas goose, and long sweet pastry.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Can 2026 match 2025?

Thu, 11 Dec 2025 21:00:00 GMT

What went right in 2025? What could go wrong in 2026? Recorded last week for the FT’s digital conference The Global Boardroom, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong talk with Ian Smith, the FT’s senior markets correspondent, about the incredible resilience of the US stock market, and the challenges ahead. Also, they go long boring companies and short KPop Demon Hunters.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Who gets to buy Warner Bros Discovery?

Tue, 09 Dec 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Netflix and Paramount are in a bidding war to take over Warner Bros Discovery and its historic collections of movies and television series. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong talks to US deals correspondent Oliver Barnes and US finance editor James Fontanella-Khan about a battle that will have a lasting impact on entertainment and the news. Also they go long indie cinema and short Christmas.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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A satanic list of inflationary factors

Thu, 04 Dec 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong talk with special guest Adam Posen about the prospects for inflation and even a financial crisis. Posen has worked for both the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and the Bank of England, and is the current president of the non-profit Peterson Institute for International Economics. They talk about the options facing the next Fed chair, the conditions for serious inflation, and AI’s role in our economic future. Also they go short crypto and long the New England Patriots.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Bonds vs budgets

Tue, 02 Dec 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Mature economies such as France, the UK and the US are spending more than they take in. They make up the rest in borrowing. But how long can that last? Today on the show, Katie Martin speaks with Ian Smith, the FT’s senior markets correspondent, about the UK’s latest Budget and bond sales, and what it means for governments around the globe. Also they go long chocolate and short cats.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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What are the hedge funds shorting?

Tue, 25 Nov 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Short interest in the market is rising. But what are the big players betting against? And what can investors learn from it? Today on the show, Katie Martin joins the editor of the FT’s Alphaville newsletter Robin Wigglesworth to discuss high finance’s low expectations. Also they go short Bloom Energy and short the crypto bros.

To sign up for free to the new FT Alphaville newsletter on substack, go to ftav.substack.com.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Nvidia's crazy day

Thu, 20 Nov 2025 21:00:00 GMT

In the morning, Nvidia’s earnings report seemed to have cured the market of its jitters about an artificial intelligence bubble. And then it didn’t. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out if the chipmaker’s numbers are soothing or scary. Also they go long a proposed stimulus cheque and short handbag investment funds.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Big deals in Big Pharma

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 21:00:00 GMT

The battle between Novo Nordisk and Pfizer to acquire Metsera is over. But is this merger a sign of strength or weakness for the industry? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong talks with US finance editor James Fontanella-Khan about the pressures on drug companies from Washington and the market. Also they go long Nasdaq and short Nasdaq.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Is the K-shaped economy real?

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Companies such as Procter & Gamble and Chipotle say lower-income customers are spending less, while upper-income customers keep splurging. But data from the Federal Reserve and others suggests incomes – and the differences between them – have remained steady. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to understand why and if consumer behaviour is changing. Also, they go long passive investing and short banks checking their own employees’ bank balances.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Is the US an emerging market?

Tue, 11 Nov 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Today’s show is a live recording from the Kilkenomics Festival in Kilkenny, Ireland. Katie Martin hosts a panel with guests David McWilliams, founder of the festival, and Mark Blyth, professor of political economics at Brown University. From the Home Rule Club in Kilkenny, they ask if the US is starting to behave like an emerging market. Also, they go long sterling and short futuristic cities in the sand.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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DIY data

Thu, 06 Nov 2025 21:00:00 GMT

With the government shut down, US investors are looking for data in different places. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong discuss home brewed data, and try to figure out what’s really going on in the US economy. Also they go short flying taxis and the UK defaulting.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Is Big Tech spending too much money?

Tue, 04 Nov 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Tech companies are spending historic amounts of money on computing power and data centres.

Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin talk to Lex editor John Foley to try to understand the computing arms race. Also they go long M&A, short free buses, and long cleanfluencers.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Martin Wolf on the economics of populism

Thu, 30 Oct 2025 20:00:00 GMT

How does populism affect the long-term health of economies? And is there a difference in outcomes between the extreme politics of the left and the right? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and the FT’s chief economics commentator Martin Wolf discuss an extensive study on populism and economics. Also, they go long China and short tech companies with no profits.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The vigorous nods of Bessent

Tue, 28 Oct 2025 20:00:00 GMT

US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent has one of the hardest jobs in recent history. He has to implement bizarre economic strategies and keep rational market players calm. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin discuss Bessent’s balancing act. Also they go long depreciation expense and short predictions about gold.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Will the US bail out Argentina?

Thu, 23 Oct 2025 20:00:00 GMT

It won’t be easy, and you’ll think it’s strange, when we try to explain … why US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent is suddenly reversing all current US policy and proposing to send billions of dollars to Argentina. Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong and the FT’s Latin America editor Michael Stott discuss Javier Milei’s cry for help. Also they go long renaissance composer Palestrina and professional wrestling.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Japan’s next move

Tue, 21 Oct 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Sanae Takaichi is the first female prime minister of Japan. She also claims Margaret Thatcher as a role model. Today on the show, Katie Martin and the FT’s Tokyo bureau chief Leo Lewis discuss this historic election and what it might mean for markets in Japan and globally. Also, they go long shorts – for real this time.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Rare earth quake

Thu, 16 Oct 2025 20:00:00 GMT

China’s announcement that it would be restricting the export of rare earths put markets into a tailspin on Friday. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong, Katie Martin and new Unhedged reporter Hakyung Kim ask if this is the card that will make Donald Trump fold? Also they go long Strava, and short protein.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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UK Budget blues

Tue, 14 Oct 2025 20:00:00 GMT

On November 26, parliament will make the UK an offer it can’t refuse: The 2026 Budget. But the UK can complain about it! And likely will, as it will almost certainly include increased taxes on the middle class. Today on the show, Katie Martin and the FT’s economics commentator Chris Giles discuss Labour’s big problem: social services are expensive. Also they short the IMF and go long people who say they’re moving to Dubai actually moving to Dubai.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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AI peak is peak AI

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Is AI making everybody richer? Or just more entangled in each others’ business? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Lex editor John Foley try to untangle the growing web of companies investing in each other. Also they go long steak and long cocoa.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Introducing Untold: Toxic Legacy

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 15:11:49 GMT

Introducing Toxic Legacy, a new season of Untold from the Financial Times. Host Laura Hughes uncovers a lead poisoning epidemic across the UK. You might be living with lead and not know it: the toxin is often invisible to the human eye, but wreaks havoc on our bodies once we’re exposed. The first episode of Untold: Toxic Legacy launches October 22.

Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts or wherever you get your podcasts.

For information on how to live safely with lead, please visit the LEAPP Alliance website.

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Gold now! Gold forever! Only gold! Gold! Gold!

Tue, 07 Oct 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Gold keeps hitting all-time highs, and no sober talk about speculation or productivity has stopped it. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin take stock of the frenzy. Also they go short the yen and long Japanese stocks.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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AI, shutdowns and shadow banks

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin take on three things they’ve been thinking about: the markets' complete lack of worry about a government shutdown, the growing balance sheet problem with artificial intelligence spending, and the rise of shadow banking. Also they short cyber attacks and the fall wave of Covid-19.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The largest leveraged buyout in history?

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Electronic Arts, a publicly traded company, was just purchased for $55bn by a consortium of investors led by Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. The investors included the Saudis and Silver Lake Partners, one of the smartest players in private equity. Today on the show, Robert Armstrong speaks with US finance editor James Fontanella-Khan and US deals correspondent Oliver Barnes about the dollars behind the deal. Also, they go long and short a new wave of M&A.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Troubling signs in corporate debt

Thu, 25 Sep 2025 20:00:00 GMT

First Brands Group, a roll-up of car parts manufacturers, is preparing a bankruptcy filing after amassing as much as $10bn in debt. And last week, Tricolor, a subprime auto loan lender, ran into trouble. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin ask if we are at a turning point in credit markets. Also they go long collective nouns for groups of canaries.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Hedging the dollar

Tue, 23 Sep 2025 20:00:00 GMT

The dollar is down almost 10 per cent since the beginning of the year. Yes, it has fallen from a very strong position, but the drop might also reflect growing international unease about the direction of American institutions of government. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin discuss the weakening of the dollar, and how traders are betting on it. Also, they go short not having joined a hedge fund and short a cup of matcha.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Should companies report only twice a year?

Thu, 18 Sep 2025 20:00:00 GMT

This week, President Donald Trump suggested that companies only report earnings twice a year. This would be a significant change to how markets in the US operate. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin ask, is it a good idea? Also, they go short smart glasses and long empty nesting.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Private equity’s public reckoning

Tue, 16 Sep 2025 20:07:44 GMT

With interest rates high, private equity has had a harder time finding investors … and making money. To solve this problem, the industry has found novel ways to avoid closing their funds. But time may be running out. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong talk to the FT’s US private equity editor Antoine Gara about how private equity is going to have to turn its homework in eventually. Also they go long Robert Redford and long advisory firms that specialize in cleaning up messes made by private equity.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The mystery of the vanishing jobs

Thu, 11 Sep 2025 20:00:00 GMT

The annual jobs numbers are in. And they have been revised down by 911,000 positions. But in a quickly changing economy, with many laborers literally leaving the country, what does that mean? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter discuss the new landscape of employment in the US, and what it might mean for interest rates. Also they go long a new richest man in the world and long tweed.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Live from the FTWeekend Festival in London

Tue, 09 Sep 2025 20:00:00 GMT

2025 has been a chaotic year, with seemingly random tariffs, the reduction of the labour force, the partial nationalisation of major companies and a looming hostile takeover of the long independent Federal Reserve. Before a live audience at Kenwood House in London, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to understand which markets are responding to all this self-generated chaos, and why. Also they go long champagne and short gold.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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What’s a central bank supposed to do?

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Central banks have been around for hundreds of years. But they haven’t always done the same thing. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong talk to Brendan Greeley, a former FT reporter, about the changing role of the Federal Reserve. Greeley is the author of the forthcoming The Almighty Dollar. Also, they go long internships at XTX and short private credit.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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OK, Doomer

Tue, 02 Sep 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Valuations are high. Employment is down. The Federal Reserve is under attack. For many market watchers, this looks a lot like a recipe for disaster. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin discuss the case for a collapse. Also, they go long the UK and long September.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The people’s chip manufacturer

Thu, 28 Aug 2025 20:00:00 GMT

The Trump administration has again extended its control over the US economy, now taking a 10 per cent stake in the chip manufacturer Intel. Control of the means of production is a foundational tenet of socialism and Marxism, but the Republican party remains silent. Today on the show, Katie Martin and US managing editor Brooke Masters ask, “What the hell?”

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The Fed under attack

Tue, 26 Aug 2025 20:00:00 GMT

The annual meeting of central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is supposed to be an intellectual retreat. Instead, it was overshadowed by personal and political attacks on US Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook. Today on the show, Katie Martin talks to US economics editor Claire Jones about her reporting from Jackson Hole and what might happen if the central bank falls under the president’s control. Also, we attempt to go long and short but are interrupted by a fire alarm.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The new pump and dumps

Thu, 21 Aug 2025 20:00:00 GMT

US markets reporter George Steer has been tracking stocks that have soared, then crashed. Some of them might be “pump and dumps”, an old-fashioned style of scam where insiders generate excitement, along with sales of a stock, selling them when the price rises. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong grill Steer about the schemes. Also, they go long envy and Labubus, and short pepperoni grease.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Is the market too concentrated?

Tue, 19 Aug 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Eight of the 10 biggest stocks in the S&P 500 are technology stocks, and tech as a sector represents 40 per cent of the value of the index. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong ask if this is a warning sign of a structurally weak market. Also they go long defensive stocks and churches on wheels.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Will markets ever care about anything?

Thu, 14 Aug 2025 20:00:00 GMT

As the US president upends the global order, and consolidates power, markets keep climbing. Does it make any sense? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong speak with Gideon Rachman, the FT’s chief foreign affairs commentator. They try to understand where Trumpism sits between democracy and authoritarianism, and what that means for the US economy. Also, they go long bardcore, cheap watches and controversial fashion.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Lies, damn lies and statistics

Tue, 12 Aug 2025 20:00:00 GMT

President Donald Trump has just installed loyalists at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve. The idea is to ensure good news and low interest rates. Today on the show, Katie Martin and the FT’s Economics commentator, Chris Giles, ask what effect these personnel changes might have for the economy. Also they go long doctorates and long Mauritius.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Swamp Notes: Trump’s case against Fed chair Powell

Thu, 07 Aug 2025 19:00:00 GMT

Today, we're sharing an episode from our fellow FT podcast, Swamp Notes.

The US president is angry with the chair of the Federal Reserve over interest rates. He’s applying a lot of pressure on Jay Powell to lower them or leave his job. The FT’s Claire Jones and Adam Posen, president of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, break down what will happen if Trump succeeds in either of those goals.

This episode originally aired on July 26.

Subscribe to Swamp Notes on Acast, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts or wherever you get your podcasts.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The Economics Show: Trump is accelerating the dollar’s decline

Tue, 05 Aug 2025 19:00:00 GMT

Today, we're bringing you an episode from our fellow FT podcast, The Economics Show.

The US dollar has been in slow decline for around a decade – so says Kenneth Rogoff, Harvard professor, and former chief economist of the IMF. Donald Trump’s trade policies have raised a lot of questions about the future of the dollar – and how its decline could affect the rest of the world’s currencies. Rogoff joins Martin Wolf to discuss how the decline of the dollar could empower China, capital flight from the US, and why cryptocurrency is a bigger threat to dollar hegemony than most people realise.

Martin Wolf is chief economics commentator at the Financial Times. You can find his column here: https://www.ft.com/martin-wolf

Subscribe to The Economics Show on Apple, Spotify, Pocket Casts or wherever you listen.

Presented by Martin Wolf. Produced by Mischa Frankl-Duval. Manuela Saragosa is the executive producer. Original music and sound design by Breen Turner. The FT’s head of audio is Cheryl Brumley.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The Little Railroad Merger That Could

Thu, 31 Jul 2025 20:00:00 GMT

On Tuesday, the American railroad giant Union Pacific announced its intention to buy Norfolk Southern, promising to fulfill Abraham Lincoln’s dream of a transcontinental railroad. Today on the show, the FT’s deals correspondent Oliver Barnes joins Rob Armstrong to talk about whether President Donald Trump will make or break the deal. Also, we go short cafe cars and long shorts in the office.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The EU folds on tariffs

Tue, 29 Jul 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Experts agree: When it comes to tariffs, Europe just got trounced. So did the American consumer, who will pay these taxes. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Ben Hall, the FT’s Europe editor, discuss the terms of the deal, and why Europe didn’t retaliate. Also they go long US oil production and short the long-term health of American manufacturing.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Is M&A turning around?

Thu, 24 Jul 2025 20:00:00 GMT

When Republicans won the White House and both houses of Congress last fall, mergers and acquisitions bankers celebrated. But when President Donald Trump took office, M&A stagnated. Today on the show, the FT’s Wall Street editor Sujeet Indap tells Aiden Reiter why that may be changing, with big deals pending on everything from railroads to media conglomerates. Also, they go long Scottie Scheffler and short Japan.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Robotaxis, tech earnings and 24-hour trading

Tue, 22 Jul 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Today on the show, Aiden Reiter talks with Lex editor John Foley about three things to watch this summer: 24-hour trading, tech earnings and Tesla’s new approach to robotaxis. Also, they go short Bank Holidays, and long properly measuring GDP.

For more on 24-hour trading, check out Jennifer Hughes’ guest appearance on the FT’s Behind the Money podcast. Link here.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Is Nvidia really worth $4tn?

Thu, 17 Jul 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Nvidia is now the most valuable company in America, as AI seems to power an unstoppable market. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter ask if it reminds anyone of the dotcom bubble. Also they go long snow globes and long stone fruit.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Heinz, Kraft and Warren Buffett

Tue, 15 Jul 2025 20:00:00 GMT

The acquisition of Heinz and Kraft by 3G Capital and Warren Buffett seemed like a classic play from the world’s most famous investor: buy boring staples with long histories and hold them forever. But not this time. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Lex editor John Foley talk about Buffett’s exit from a merger on the verge of a spinoff. Also they go long crypto and long tariffs that might actually happen.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The secret giant of finance

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 00:13:14 GMT

Jane Street is one of the biggest traders in the world, and they have become embroiled in accusations of market manipulation in India. Today on the show, Katie Martin and special guest Robin Wigglesworth, from the FT’s Alphaville newsletter, try to explain how Jane Street got so big and why it matters. Also they go short bed bugs and short Strategy’s strategy.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Three surprises that might spook the markets

Tue, 08 Jul 2025 20:01:00 GMT

Despite looming economic problems, the stock market continues to climb. Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter ask what could finally end the party. Also they go short consultants and short hot yoga.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The dilapidated dollar

Thu, 03 Jul 2025 20:00:00 GMT

The US dollar is having its worst year since 1973. And 1973 was a really bad year. As the US takes a break to celebrate independence from the UK, Katie Martin and Ian Smith discuss the glow-down of the greenback. Also they go long forensic accountants and long aged hedge funders playing tennis.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Building a big beautiful Europe

Tue, 01 Jul 2025 20:00:00 GMT

The weakening dollar suggests international investors are looking for other places to put their money. This could be an opportunity for Europe to finally compete with the US as a safe haven and reserve currency. But Europe is still financially fragmented. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong discuss a new idea for creating a common regulatory and lending framework. Also they go short the “big, beautiful bill” and short lies from Big Tea.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Can anything stop the US economy?

Thu, 26 Jun 2025 20:00:00 GMT

A lot of people are worried about the Middle East, but markets are doing just fine. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter talk about why investors are buying US again — and whether that will end badly. Also, they go long exotic fruits and the perennial Citigroup buy note.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Who wants to be a Fed chair?

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 20:00:00 GMT

President Donald Trump has called US Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell “very dumb, hardheaded” and a “numbskull” for not lowering interest rates. But for some reason, people still want Powell’s job. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong look at the contenders. Also, they go long restaurant inflation and community gardening.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Behind the Money: Inside Moët Hennessy’s crisis

Thu, 19 Jun 2025 19:00:00 GMT

Unhedged is off today so instead we're bringing you an episode from our fellow FT podcast, Behind the Money.

In this episode, we look at how LVMH’s wine and spirits division, Moët Hennessy, has long been a source of success – and cash – for the luxury goods behemoth. But more recently, that’s changed. The FT’s Paris correspondent Adrienne Klasa, found that certain strategic decisions made under the company’s former CEO have contributed to a change in its fortunes. She examines the missteps and whether the division can make a comeback.

Listen to more episodes from Behind the Money here.

Clips from Olympics

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For further reading:

Moët Hennessy’s crisis: dubious deals, soaring prices and hubris

Alcohol groups face a sobering cultural shift

Moët Hennessy to cut 10% of workforce as luxury slowdown bites

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Follow Adrienne Klasa on X (@AdrienneKlasa). Michela Tindera is on X (@mtindera07) and Bluesky (@mtindera.ft.com), or follow her on LinkedIn for updates about the show and more.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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What the Israel-Iran war means for markets

Tue, 17 Jun 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Israel and Iran are at war, but markets have yet to freak out. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin dig into what’s happening with oil, the dollar and gold — and what Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell will say following this week’s FOMC meeting. Also, they go long New York pizza and golden telephones.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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What makes Tesla run?

Thu, 12 Jun 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Tesla stock feels like it runs on uncut animal spirits. But the company’s fortunes have been bound up with the US government since long before the Trump administration.Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter sort through the factors that drive the company’s stock. Also, they go long the price of copper and long short shorts.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welcome to the ‘Hotel Crypto’

Tue, 10 Jun 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continues its meteoric rise as new investors purchase a company whose basic business is to own bitcoin. Naturally, the firm has inspired copycats, such as the Japanese hotel developer that just started buying crypto and now trades for more than the value of all its assets. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin try to figure out if there’s any way it doesn’t all end in tears. Also, they go short tariffs on solar panels and short fecal transplants.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Walmart’s very good year

Thu, 05 Jun 2025 20:00:00 GMT

The last 12 months have been great for Walmart, with its stock price rising on growing sales. And it’s all happening despite impending tariffs, and without adding more employees. Today on the show, US consumer editor Gregory Meyer joins Rob Armstrong to discuss what Walmart’s success can tell us about the future of American retail. Also, they go short online sports gambling and short New Jersey transit.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Stock market party but why?

Tue, 03 Jun 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Equities are on a tear, led by the usual tech giants that make up the Magnificent Seven. But why? Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin go over the odd landscape of the current American economy, including scepticism about tariffs, inventory stockpiles, strong earnings and a budget that includes a tax on foreign investment in the US. Also they execute a complicated private equity pair trade and go long Nigerian weddings.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The nasty Taco question

Thu, 29 May 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Our co-host Rob Armstrong has been talking about the “Taco trade” (Trump Always Chickens Out) for a few weeks, and on Wednesday a journalist asked the US president about it. Trump did not like the question, not one bit. But the internet did. Now traders are worried Trump might not chicken out. Did Rob just crash the US economy? And, if so, would he like to apologise? Also, Katie goes long Elon Musk returning to his day job, and Rob goes short his 15 minutes of fame.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The ‘big beautiful’ budget vs the bond market

Tue, 27 May 2025 20:00:00 GMT

President Donald Trump’s ‘big beautiful’ bill was passed by the House of Representatives last week. It adds yet more deficit spending to the US budget. But can it survive the bond market? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin discuss how deficit spending affects the bond market and what can happen when yields rise dramatically. Also they go long the euro as a new international reserve currency and short drinking in bookstores.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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When Spacs attack

Thu, 22 May 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Special purpose acquisition companies are basically bags of money looking for businesses to acquire. They boomed in 2021 and then went into hiding. Now they’re back and booming. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter survey the frontiers of Spacs. Also they go short the dollar and long jewels.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The microcap explosion

Tue, 20 May 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Microcaps of every sort have been rushing to list on US exchanges. Many are from China and represent shares in tiny companies, such as a chain of hot pot stores. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter talk to correspondent George Steer about the boom and try to figure out what’s going on. Also, they go long the SEC’s Caroline Crenshaw and short DJs.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The UK’s trade deal

Thu, 15 May 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Recent announcements about trade deals with the UK and China have cheered markets. But what exactly did the UK agree, and why? Today on the show, the FT’s trade guru Alan Beattie joins Katie Martin to unpack the negotiations. Also they go short droughts and long globalisation.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Not-so-bad news is the new good news

Tue, 13 May 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Lower-than-expected inflation and the start of negotiations with China seemed to help stocks on Monday. But the dollar remained uncharacteristically weak. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter ask if America is feeling good, or just relieved to be alive. Also they short gold and go long pope memes.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Berkshire after Buffett

Thu, 08 May 2025 20:00:00 GMT

At the annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway, Warren Buffett announced his retirement from day-to-day management. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong look at his incredible career, and try to figure out what becomes of a somewhat random collection of businesses. Also they go short Google and long complacency.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Will the real money pivot to Europe?

Tue, 06 May 2025 20:00:00 GMT

There is fast money and there is real money. Fast money means day traders and hedge funds, who jump in and out on the day's news. But the real money — that of governments and insurance and pension funds — moves much more slowly, and with greater effect. Today on the show, Katie Martin speaks with Ian Smith on what may be a slow turn of allocation out of the US and into Europe. Also they go short consumer confidence and long lepidoptery.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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GDP goes negative

Thu, 01 May 2025 20:00:00 GMT

The GDP contracted this past quarter – a turnaround from two years of surprisingly steady growth. Baked into that negative number are imports, as sellers rush to bring in goods ahead of tariffs. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter dissect the GDP and what it tells us about the rapidly changing economy. Also they go long soyabeans and long blackouts.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Bad shipping news

Tue, 29 Apr 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Air and sea freight bookings for international cargo are plunging. As the reality of empty shelves starts to hit consumers, will Donald Trump blink? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out how long the US president can hold out, and wonder, if he does blink, how long it might take to get trade going again. Also they go long Greggs bakery chain and short the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Wall Street vs the White House

Thu, 24 Apr 2025 20:00:00 GMT

The current administration rode in on a wave of support from America’s traders, lenders and money managers. But that might be changing. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong talks to the FT’s US finance editor, James Fontanella-Khan, about what the titans of Wall Street really think about President Donald Trump. Also they go long AC Milan and short the market.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Sell America?

Tue, 22 Apr 2025 20:00:00 GMT

With the continuing decline in the price of US Treasuries, Katie, Rob and Aiden take up the debate about the future of America’s status as a truly exceptional safe haven. Today on the show, the trio discuss the damage President Donald Trump has already done and ask how long it will last. Afterwards, they take long and short bets on 10-year Treasuries, the S&P 500 and the euro/dollar trade.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Nvidia’s bad day

Thu, 17 Apr 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Nvidia shares, along with many others in the tech sector, plunged on Wednesday on news that the Trump administration will be blocking sales of certain technology to China. Particularly hard hit was the outlook for Nvidia’s H20 chip. The company expected the president’s decision to cost it $5.5bn in sales. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter are joined by Lex editor John Foley to discuss the clampdown on tech and the prospects for AI in general. Also they go long turbulence at the Federal Reserve, and short Dutch chip company ASML.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Will China back down?

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 20:00:00 GMT

The White House has announced dizzyingly high — and hard-to-follow — tariffs on goods from China. And Beijing has responded. But the real trade war may be between the US president and the American consumer. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter dig into the tariffs battle and discuss China’s options. Also, Aiden doubles down on donkey metaphors and Katie goes short performative space expeditions.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The real cost of a trade war

Thu, 10 Apr 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Trump folded on Wednesday, reducing his so-called “reciprocal” tariffs across the board, with the notable exception of massive taxes on goods from China. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin unpack the market gyrations that followed, and wonder if lasting damage has been done to America’s borrowing costs. Also, they go long global trade and long battered European stocks.

Join Unhedged for a subscriber webinar about the Trump effect on markets on April 23 at 13:00-14:00 UK time. Go to ft.com/trumpmarkets to register now and send your questions to the team.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Surveying the wreckage

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 20:00:00 GMT

As the markets try to absorb and value the announced US tariffs, China has responded with its own levies. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong sum up the old bad news, add it to the new bad news, and divide it by the good news. The result isn’t pretty. Also they go long patience and short buying the dip.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Tariffs up. Markets down

Thu, 03 Apr 2025 20:00:00 GMT

On April 2, in the Rose Garden of the White House, President Donald Trump announced taxes on almost every kind of imported finished goods. Markets plunged as traders fled equities, and even the dollar weakened. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter go over the tariffs and discuss how they will make it harder for American companies to make money. Also they go long TIPS, and short the fortunes of the American consumer, who will have to pay for all these new levies.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Vibes vs data

Tue, 01 Apr 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Markets, investors and companies are all feeling a little bit jumpy about the state of the economy. Surveys of managers, consumers and investors are all grim. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter take a look at those soft numbers and compare them to hard numbers such as the Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey and try to figure out what’s really going on. Also they go short Indonesia’s plan for a sovereign wealth fund and short the president’s plan for “liberation day”.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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What does CoreWeave’s IPO say about the market?

Thu, 27 Mar 2025 20:00:00 GMT

CoreWeave’s IPO is one of the odder tech plays to come along in a few years. It buys chips from Nvidia, and rents them out, mainly to Microsoft, but also to Nvidia. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong gets into the cloud computing company's business with Lex editor John Foley and the FT’s corporate finance editor Rob Smith. Also they go long Ferraris and short car tariffs.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Can Trump drive down bond yields?

Tue, 25 Mar 2025 20:00:00 GMT

President Donald Trump has been clear he wants lower interest rates. Cheaper money would goose the market and give the government room to spend. But interest rates haven’t exactly been co-operating. Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter discuss plans to move the needle on long-term bonds, from the stalled “Mar-a-Lago Accord” to Treasury secretary Scott Bessent’s embrace of shorter-duration bonds. Also they go long the price of oil and short the 10-year Treasury bond.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Dour Fed, cheery market

Thu, 20 Mar 2025 20:00:00 GMT

On Wednesday Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell announced that US interest rates would remain unchanged. But the monetary policy committee is clearly worried that tariffs might slow growth and increase inflation. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter try to figure out why markets weren't worried by what they heard from the Fed. Also they go long Twitter (X… whatever) and short Tesla.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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How will Europe pay for its new weapons?

Tue, 18 Mar 2025 20:00:00 GMT

As the US retreats from global commitments, Europe is re-arming. That will change the maths for companies and debt loads, in countries as different as Poland, Germany, Spain and Portugal. Today on the second part of Unhedged’s visit to the IE Business School in Madrid, hosts Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong talk with the FT’s Spain and Portugal correspondent Barney Jopson about the increase in military spending, and how it will all be paid for. Also they take questions from the audience.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Make America Gyrate Again

Thu, 13 Mar 2025 20:00:00 GMT

As Donald Trump continues to upend the US economy with a bizarre series of tariff announcements and reversals, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong head to Spain. Today on the show, they host a live forum at the IE Business School in Madrid, covering an administration zig-zagging like a squirrel at rush hour and a market cowering in fear. Also, they take some questions from the audience.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The case for China

Tue, 11 Mar 2025 20:00:00 GMT

Investors have long been wary of China, piling into US markets, no matter what the climate. But is that changing? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter talk to Ruchir Sharma, a columnist for the FT and investor at Rockefeller Capital Management, about the case for China now. Also they go long BYD, and long Vietnam.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Trump dump?

Thu, 06 Mar 2025 21:00:00 GMT

The president proposes and the markets dispose … of recent gains. Tariffs, deportations, budget cuts, political isolation and other “exciting” new plans seem to be unsettling investors, who are leaving US equities and heading for the safety of bonds. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and head of the Lex column John Foley look at some of the falling stocks and try to figure out how much risk investors will ultimately take off the table. Also they go long potash and long Tesla.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Can the Fed stay independent?

Tue, 04 Mar 2025 21:00:00 GMT

President Donald Trump has loudly proclaimed his desire for lower interest rates. Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, responding to persistent inflation, has kept rates higher. And keeps mentioning that he can’t be fired. But is this true? Today on the show, the FT’s economics commentator Chris Giles joins Katie Martin to discuss an upcoming legal case that might increase the president’s ability to fire the heads of agencies. Also we go short the Atlanta Fed and long vowels.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The beatings will continue until markets improve

Thu, 27 Feb 2025 21:00:00 GMT

President Donald Trump’s abandonment of Ukraine has been a great success … for European defence companies. Meanwhile, traders are selling American defence contractors, and the US market is sluggish. Now the president is threatening huge tariffs on Europe. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter struggle to understand what the Trump administration actually wants and how far the American exceptionalism trade can really go. Also we go long the dollar and long the Oscars.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Vibrational movements in the market

Tue, 25 Feb 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Have the vibes shifted? Slowing growth and stubborn inflation seem to be putting a chill on a once exuberant market. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter ask if this all adds up to “stagflation”, one of the scariest words in the economic lexicon. Also they go short US defence stocks.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Is the IPO market broken?

Thu, 20 Feb 2025 21:00:00 GMT

The markets are booming but there are fewer and fewer new entrants. And they don’t seem to be exciting to investors. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter talk with Jenn Hughes about her latest newsletter on the weak IPO market. Also they go long the 10-year treasury and short the Treasury secretary’s plans to “monetize” the federal balance sheet.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Pros and cons of a US sovereign wealth fund

Tue, 18 Feb 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Donald Trump and his Treasury secretary have signaled their support for a sovereign wealth fund. Joe Biden and Kamala Harris also discussed it. But is it a good idea? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter make the case for and against a radical new plan for American capital. Also, they go long the reappearance of Chinese billionaire Jack Ma, and long Diet Coke.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The other side of trade

Thu, 13 Feb 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Coverage of President Donald Trump’s tariffs tends to focus on their effect on American consumers. That’s important, but it’s only half the story, or less. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin welcome Alan Beattie to discuss how the rest of the world is responding to the Trump tariffs, and what leverage they might have. Also, they go long eggs, and the neutral interest rate, and short the giant panda.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Why is gold buggin’?

Tue, 11 Feb 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Gold is traditionally a hedge against instability. And it’s reaching record highs. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong look at the demand for gold and try to figure out if the market is trying to tell us something. They also short the penny and go long tech bro drama.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Will Trump’s tariffs make Europe great again?

Thu, 06 Feb 2025 21:00:00 GMT

European stock indices have outperformed the S&P 500 so far this year. The FT’s Aiden Reiter joins Katie Martin to discuss why investors are finally looking beyond US stocks and why Donald Trump’s policies could accidentally benefit global exporters. Also, we go short posthumous publishing and 24-hour stock trading.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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What’s next for Trump’s tariffs?

Tue, 04 Feb 2025 21:00:00 GMT

The tariffs have arrived. Canada and Mexico have negotiated delays, China is retaliating, and investors are trying to figure out what comes next. The FT’s Aiden Reiter joins Katie Martin to discuss what Donald Trump gains from following through on his campaign promises and whether there are limits to how much America can boss other countries around. Also, we go short London’s tea culture and long HBO’s ‘The Penguin’.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Picking stocks for 2025

Thu, 30 Jan 2025 21:00:00 GMT

It’s time for the FT’s annual stockpicking contest, where the money is fake but the glory is real. The FT’s Alan Livsey joins Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter to discuss what bets they think will pay off in a potentially volatile year. Now more than ever, this is not investing advice.

Enter the contest at ft.com/stockpick2025.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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DeepSeek, AI and the markets

Tue, 28 Jan 2025 21:00:00 GMT

DeepSeek’s announcement that it has built competitive AI using many fewer resources than big US rivals stunned the markets this week. Chipmakers and power companies plunged in value, and Sam Altman, boss of OpenAI, pronounced himself ‘legit’ invigorated. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out what China’s advances mean for US markets. Also, they organize a fight between their children.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Decoding Trumponomics

Thu, 23 Jan 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Donald Trump’s first week in office has produced a barrage of policies and power moves. But which of them will happen? Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong, and Aiden Reiter try to figure out which announcements are real, and which of those will move markets. Also they short the peso and go long the enjoyment of watching the president and Elon Musk in the weirdest buddy movie of all time.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Our 2024 stock picks

Tue, 21 Jan 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Each year the Financial Times hosts a stock-picking contest for its journalists and readers. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong explain the logic behind their absolute bombs. And then to find out how it’s done, they speak with their colleague Kadhim Shubber, who won the contest last year. Also they go long Gail’s Bakery and short strategic ambiguity.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Will US inflation ever go below 3%?

Thu, 16 Jan 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Reports of the demise of US inflation have been greatly exaggerated. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter discuss the continuing high numbers and what the Fed might do about it this year. Also they go long Ohio State and short New Year’s resolutions.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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What are UK bonds thinking?

Tue, 14 Jan 2025 21:00:00 GMT

US bonds and UK gilts are tracking each other, and heading down. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin try to figure out whether to blame chancellor Rachel Reeves, or the whole world. Also, Rob goes short pretentious editorials and Katie coins a new term, “Brovid”, to describe the mind virus causing a notable increase in edgelords.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Why so many bankruptcies?

Thu, 09 Jan 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Corporate bankruptcies are on the rise. In recent months, Party City, Big Lots, Spirit Airlines, and other discount providers have declared bankruptcy. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter try to figure out why, and what it means for the overall economy. Also they go long ceramics and long the Arctic.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The year ahead: tariffs, taxes and Trump

Tue, 07 Jan 2025 21:00:00 GMT

Tariffs. Tax cuts. Geopolitics. Artificial intelligence. Inflation. Mass deportations. Rate cuts or rises. The year ahead is filled with question marks. Meanwhile, markets are historically high. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out what could go right, wrong and straight down the middle. Also, they short air fryers and go long jewellery for men.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The listeners have questions

Thu, 02 Jan 2025 21:00:30 GMT

Happy new year, Unhedged listeners! Today on the show, Rob Armstrong, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter answer questions from the listeners on everything from the takeover of passive investing to favorite metrics. Also, we forgo long and short and announce our new year’s resolutions.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The Bitcoin National Strategic wha?

Thu, 26 Dec 2024 21:00:00 GMT

The US government owns many billions of dollars worth of bitcoin, confiscated from bad actors such as the Silk Road marketplace. Donald Trump said on the campaign trail that he would not be selling it. Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced a bill suggesting the government buy more and create a national strategic reserve of crypto currency. Today on the show, Katie Martin asks FT contributor Toby Nangle if any of this makes any sense at all. Also, we go long Christmas stuffing and long dinosaurs.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Rate drop, market drop

Thu, 19 Dec 2024 21:00:00 GMT

The Federal Reserve announced a small cut yesterday. Normally, that heartens markets. But we are not in normal times, and somewhat measured comments about the coming year seemed to have spooked traders. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter try to figure out what happened, and why. Also we go long holiday wish lists and short gift cards.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Will IPOs ever come back?

Tue, 17 Dec 2024 21:00:00 GMT

The road to riches used to be paved with juicy IPOs. But that does not seem to be the case anymore. Today on the show, Katie Martin is joined by Craig Coben, a former global head of equity capital markets at Bank of America, and now a contributing writer for FT Alphaville. They discuss regulation and demand, and the growing role of private equity in corporate ownership. Also, they go short France and long melodic house music.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Is M&A back?

Thu, 12 Dec 2024 21:00:00 GMT

There have been very few mergers and acquisitions in the past four years, but many dealmakers say that’s about to change. At least that’s according to reporting by James Fontanella-Khan, our guest on the show today. Fontanella-Khan is the FT’s US deals reporter, and he speaks with Rob Armstrong about the shape of deals to come, and how anti-trust policy might look over the next four years. Also, they go long vintage clothing and long the prospects of a merger between Giorgia Meloni and Elon Musk.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Geopolitics? What geopolitics?

Tue, 10 Dec 2024 21:00:00 GMT

Ukraine, Syria, Moldova, France, Israel, South Korea, the US…. Power is being challenged and redistributed around the world. But how are markets reacting, which changes truly matter to the global multinational corporations that power the markets, and why are markets so bad at predicting these upheavals? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter take stock of the rearrangements. Also they go long scarves and crappy Santas.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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What can Trump do about the price of oil?

Thu, 05 Dec 2024 21:00:00 GMT

Among his many promises, president-elect Donald Trump is promising to drive down the price of energy in the US. But how realistic a plan is that? What levers does he have to pull? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter talk about how oil is priced and what moves that price. Also they go long parliamentary democracy and short brunch.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer.

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Are US stocks too expensive?

Tue, 03 Dec 2024 21:00:00 GMT

Ruchir Sharma, an investor and frequent contributor to the FT, came out and said it the other day: The US stock market is in a bubble. But is it a bubble or just the rational behavior of investors who believe the US really is exceptional? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong discuss the outlandishly good performance of the US market, and ask how long it can last. Also they go long Elon Musk’s pay package and short the transatlantic bug.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Best of: the world’s greatest stocks

Thu, 28 Nov 2024 21:47:45 GMT

How would you like a 265,528,900 per cent return on your investment? Would you be interested in that? If so, join us as Rob Armstrong and FT Alphaville’s Robin Wigglesworth discuss the results of Professor Hendrik Bessembinder’s massive number-crunching project, which ranks the best stocks of the past century. The number one performer is pretty incendiary. Also we short break dancing and go triple reverse long on single-stock ETFs.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong and Katie Martin at unhedged@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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How inflationary are tariffs, really?

Tue, 26 Nov 2024 21:00:00 GMT

President-elect Donald Trump has just announced “Day 1” tariffs on Mexico and Canada, in addition to previously promised tariffs on China. Tariffs will definitely affect domestic prices, but how much, and will they truly cause catastrophic inflation? Today on the show, guest host Josh Oliver discusses the tariffs with the FT’s economics commentator Chris Giles. Also, they short the new Treasury secretary and the 900-year-old Smithfield meat market in the City of London.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Looking at 2025

Thu, 21 Nov 2024 21:00:00 GMT

It is the season for giving and banks are giving us a lot of year-ahead reports. Katie, Robert and Aiden actually read these things, and today on the show they discuss what they’ve learned. It all raises questions about very narrow corporate spreads, an AI bubble and what happens if things go right in the jobs market, or wrong in the Middle East. Also we go long hair products, short turkey and limit long Josh Kushner’s big bet against diversification.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Disinflation, demographics, Doge

Tue, 19 Nov 2024 21:00:00 GMT

Opinions are cheap so we’re making it up in volume, with three takes on the future of the economy. Today on the show, the entire staff of the Unhedged newsletter – Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter – gather to discuss looming inflation, the next 25 years of returns from the stock market and the challenges facing the so-called ‘department of government efficiency’. Also we go long Disney and long Turkey, the country.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Live from Kilkenomics: anger and economics

Thu, 14 Nov 2024 21:00:00 GMT

Angry eruptions in elections around the world are changing leaders. And many of those leaders are coming in with radical offers to the voters. But can anger change an economic outcome for the better? And will it? Today on the show, Katie Martin hosts a live forum at the Kilkenomics Festival in Kilkenny, Ireland and discusses the topic with Leah Downey, a political theorist, and Eric Lonergan, a money manager. Also, we go long turkeys and short orange politicians.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Live from Kilkenomics: financial mistakes

Tue, 12 Nov 2024 21:00:00 GMT

Each year economists gather in Kilkenny, Ireland for the annual Kilkenomics festival. The guests share stories in pubs and make dark jokes about economics. This year, we joined them, taping two episodes of our podcast in Cleere's Bar & Theatre. In our first instalment, we speak with financial historian Russell Napier and Martín Lousteau, a senator representing the city of Buenos Aires. The topic is financial mistakes. Also we go long anger in politics and short France.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The Trump economy. How big? How beautiful?

Thu, 07 Nov 2024 21:00:00 GMT

If Donald Trump’s campaign promises about things such as immigration, the dollar, trade and tax policy are realised, the US will start an economic experiment without recent precedent. Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter make their best guesses about a very confusing and unfamiliar future. Also, we short incumbents and tweed and go long the American project.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Do the markets even care about the US election?

Tue, 05 Nov 2024 21:00:00 GMT

It’s election day. Everyone is freaking out. But the prices of some major commodities and indices remain stoically calm. We investigate. Also, we go long nuclear power, long bees and limit long a squirrel named Peanut.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Magnificent 7 report

Thu, 31 Oct 2024 20:00:00 GMT

The Magnificent 7 make up seven of the eight largest stocks on the S&P 500 and they are reporting earnings this week and last. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and guest John Foley, who covers technology for the Lex column, take a look at all seven – with a nod to Berkshire Hathaway – and ask where they’re headed. Also we go long Reddit and long consumer sentiment.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Can Boeing come back?

Tue, 29 Oct 2024 20:00:00 GMT

It’s been a tough year for Boeing. It started with a door panel falling off of a plane in mid-flight. Then machinists at the company went on strike. This week, Boeing announced it would raise $19bn in an effort to keep its credit rating from being cut to junk. Today on the show, the FT’s Chicago correspondent Claire Bushey joins Rob Armstrong to discuss whether Boeing is too big to fail – and if it’s worth the wait for investors. Also, we go long Superstore and Halloween.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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What do bond markets know about the election?

Thu, 24 Oct 2024 20:00:00 GMT

As betting markets and polls begin tentatively to suggest a Donald Trump election win, yields in 10-year Treasuries have risen. Some on Wall Street think that is because traders believe Trump will win, bringing with him inflationary spending and policies. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong discusses what the bond market knows with Derek Brower, the FT’s US political news editor. Also we go long Coca-Cola, and short a decisive election result.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The titans of Wall Street

Tue, 22 Oct 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Citadel, XTX and Jane Street have come to dominate trading on Wall Street, and not just in equities. They now run a huge proportion of trading in currency and bonds, something the banks used to own. But where did they come from, why have so few people heard of them, and how did they get so big? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Robin Wigglesworth discuss the massive growth in the algorithmic trading firms. Also, they go long honesty, and long the upcoming FT Alphaville pub quiz in New York.

Read the FT’s series about the new titans of Wall Street here.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The $2tn man

Thu, 17 Oct 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Nicolai Tangen oversees Norges Bank Investment Management, also known as Norway’s oil fund. It contains about $2tn in assets, based on money earned from drilling for oil offseas. Today on the show, Tangen talks with Katie Martin about everything from the European economy to China and Taiwan to overconcentration in the American stock markets. Also, Tangen goes long learning and short red tape.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Unhedged has been nominated for a Signal Award! You can vote for us here: https://vote.signalaward.com/PublicVoting#/2024/shows/general/money-finance

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Are emerging markets back?

Tue, 15 Oct 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Grouping the majority of the world’s economies into a basket labelled “emerging markets” and trying to generalise about them is a fool’s errand. And we are perfect for the job. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Aiden Reiter discuss the EM landscape and pay particular attention to Brazil’s hot economy. Also we go long Poppy Gustafsson and short Netflix’s research department.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Unhedged has been nominated for a Signal Award! You can vote for us here: https://vote.signalaward.com/PublicVoting#/2024/shows/general/money-finance

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly and the GLP-1 economy

Thu, 10 Oct 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Eli Lilly’s shares have surged 750 per cent over five years. Novo Nordisk’s are up about 360 per cent in the same period. It's been an awesome run for these companies. But how much longer can it last? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter talk to the FT’s US pharmaceutical and biotech correspondent Oliver Barnes about the astonishing growth in weight-loss drugs, and their future. Also we short inflation and running clubs.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Unhedged has been nominated for a Signal Award! You can vote for us here: https://vote.signalaward.com/PublicVoting#/2024/shows/general/money-finance

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Markets send mixed signals

Tue, 08 Oct 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Stocks are flying, rates are plunging, jobs are surging, but everyone says they’re anxious. What is going on? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to understand the many strange and sometimes contradictory things happening in the US economy. Also, we go short Spirit Halloween and long monsters.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Unhedged has been nominated for a Signal Award! You can vote for us here: https://vote.signalaward.com/PublicVoting#/2024/shows/general/money-finance

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets and the Middle East

Thu, 03 Oct 2024 20:00:00 GMT

As the conflict in the Middle East expands to include Lebanon and Iran, markets are responding with surprising nonchalance. Why? And will that last? Today on the show, Katie Martin and capital markets correspondent Nick Megaw try to understand why so much can go wrong in one part of the world, without roiling markets in the rest of the world. Also, we go long the Vix, and short e-cycles.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Unhedged has been nominated for a Signal Award! You can vote for us here: https://vote.signalaward.com/PublicVoting#/2024/shows/general/money-finance

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Is the China stimulus package enough?

Tue, 01 Oct 2024 20:00:18 GMT

Last week China announced it would be providing low-cost funds to investors in both equities and the property market. The nominal effects were immediate, and the country’s stock market has recently risen as much as 20 per cent. Boosting stock prices is one thing, but there is a bigger problem: can Beijing encourage more domestic spending, and less saving? Today on the show, Katie Martin discusses all this with the Unhedged newsletter's newest writer, Aiden Reiter, who, it turns out, speaks Mandarin. Also we go long morning swims and long our own show.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com and Aiden Reiter at aiden.reiter@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Immigration and unemployment

Thu, 26 Sep 2024 20:00:00 GMT

When discussing the economy after the interest rate cuts last week, chair of the US Federal Reserve Jay Powell made an interesting comment about jobs numbers and immigration. “If you are having millions of people come into the labour force, and you are creating 100,000 jobs, you’re going to see unemployment go up,” he said. Well, mostly. Today on the show, the entire staff of the Unhedged newsletter – Rob Armstrong and Aiden Reiter – get together to discuss how immigration might be affecting unemployment. Also, they go long and short China’s new stimulus programmes.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The case for small and mid caps

Tue, 24 Sep 2024 20:00:00 GMT

As the Federal Reserve starts to lower interest rates, a perennial theory has returned: that small and mid caps will, for a time, grow more quickly than the S&P 500. Today on the show, Katie Martin, Rob Armstrong, and Aiden Reiter discuss whether that is good, or even true. Also, as the seasons change, we go long and short knitwear.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Federal Reserve puts on enormous party hat

Thu, 19 Sep 2024 20:00:00 GMT

In a massive surprise on Wednesday, one of Rob Armstrong’s predictions turned out to be right. The Fed did indeed cut interest rates by half a percentage point. A cut this big is deeply unusual, and normally happens in a crisis. But there are a lot of reasons to think we’re not in a crisis at all. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong talk about what the Fed just did, and where the central bank is headed. Also, we go long European merger drama and short well-being at big banks.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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What is Apollo, anyway?

Tue, 17 Sep 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Apollo Global Management is publicly traded and one of the largest alternative asset managers in the world. But what does it really do? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong asks reporters Sujeet Indap and Eric Platt to describe the parts that make up Apollo. Also they go long Boeing and long News Corp.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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How Ireland got too much money

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Forty years ago Ireland had a high number of emigrants and very few multinational corporations. Then it became a tax haven. Today, the country is the headquarters for the European arms of companies such as Apple, Google and Intel. The country also has an €8bn surplus, and is about to get €13bn more following a court ruling with the iPhone maker. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Irish economist David McWilliams try to figure out what Ireland should do with all this extra cash. Also they go short Trump Media and long the Netflix series, The Perfect Couple.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The Fed: will it be 25 or 50?

Tue, 10 Sep 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Will the US central bank lower interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points? Fed chair Jay Powell has hinted rates are coming down, but not by how much. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong take sides and argue the case for the expected 25 basis point cut, and a larger 50 basis point cut. Also we short Apple’s new phone, and go long the amazing technology of the veterinarian.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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How to fix the housing market

Thu, 05 Sep 2024 20:00:00 GMT

By many measures, the US housing market is broken. High demand is causing high prices, and yet, year after year, new supply fails to arrive. What’s behind the mismatch? And is there any way to solve it? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong and Aiden Reiter discuss proposals from the two US presidential candidates, and other ideas. Also, we go short Turkey and short the yield curve.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Boring but sexy (stocks)

Tue, 03 Sep 2024 20:00:00 GMT

The run-up in the markets over the past year or so has been largely driven by tech companies with outsized returns. But that seems to be changing. Names such as Walmart, Berkshire Hathaway and UnitedHealthCare have been performing strongly while the once-hot tech sector seems to lag. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong ask if this is a sign of an era shift in the market. Also we ask if Jerome Powell was lucky or good.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The ethics of investing for dictators

Thu, 29 Aug 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Toby Nangle is a regular contributor to the FT. Before he was a journalist, he was an asset manager for more than 25 years, and many of his clients were sovereign wealth funds. And some of the sovereigns of those wealth funds were doing things that made Nangle uncomfortable. So he quit. Today on the show, we discuss a massive problem faced by the investment industry: the ethical behaviour of its clients.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The gold rally

Tue, 27 Aug 2024 20:00:00 GMT

The price of gold reached a record high this week, passing $2,500 an ounce. Market watchers often ascribe a rise like this to inflation, fears about political instability or the endless insanity of the wild-eyed goldbug. But which is it? Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong unpack gold’s rise. Also we go long and short Nvidia.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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What will Jay Powell say at Jackson Hole?

Thu, 22 Aug 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Why do central bankers gather in the middle of nowhere every summer? And what will this week's meeting in the middle of nowhere mean for markets? Katie Martin and FT economics commentator Chris Giles explain everything you need to know about Jackson Hole. Also, we go long exclusive conferences and short exams.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

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Markets resume previously scheduled exuberance

Tue, 20 Aug 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Two weeks ago, investors seemed headed for the exits. Now they’re back in and cash is flooding the markets again. Today on the show, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong unpack the madness. Also, we go long gold and short social media.

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The world’s greatest stocks

Thu, 15 Aug 2024 20:00:00 GMT

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30 years of bond investment

Tue, 13 Aug 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Jim Leaviss started his career in fixed income at the Bank of England, and is ending it 30 years later as the outgoing chief investment officer for fixed income of M&G Investments, which manages more than £100bn in bonds. Today on the show, Katie Martin talks with Jim about what he learned over his long career. Also, the two throw down on the best albums of the 90s.

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What’s up with Bill Ackman?

Thu, 08 Aug 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Ackman is one of most well-known investors in the US, and one of the loudest. He has more than a million followers on X and isn’t afraid to argue with any of them. But his active social media feed and his fundraising seem to be at odds. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and James Fontanella-Khan dissect the remains of Ackman’s cancelled IPO. Also we go short Italy and long hypocrisy.

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Anatomy of a rout

Tue, 06 Aug 2024 20:00:00 GMT

On Monday, markets around the world agreed to go into a tailspin. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and guest Nick Megaw try to figure out what drove it all. They cover unemployment, manufacturing, the Japanese carry trade, the Magnificent Seven, and the foolishness of the retail investor. Also we go long Google, and long CNBC at midnight.

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The case for Tesla

Thu, 01 Aug 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Tesla’s earnings slightly disappointed last week, but its stock is still valued at nearly 100 times earnings. Does this make sense? And what exactly is Tesla anyway? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and reporter Aiden Reiter take apart Tesla and try to sort out an eclectic basket of electric cars, self-driving taxis, humanoid robots and other grand plans for the future. Also we go long the yen and long bitcoin, for complex reasons.

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You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

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Why Wall Street picked Kamala Harris

Tue, 30 Jul 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Wall Street withheld tens of millions of dollars in campaign financing to pressure US President Joe Biden to withdraw from November’s election and endorse Kamala Harris. And it worked. But how did Wall Street get so interested in a public prosecutor from San Francisco? And what do financiers hope she’ll bring to the table? Today on the show, deals reporter James Fontanella-Khan walks Robert Armstrong through the whirlwind courtship between Harris and big money. Also, we short Bill Ackman and go long McDonald's.

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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How to manipulate the US dollar

Thu, 25 Jul 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Presidential candidate Donald Trump has argued for a weaker dollar in recent interviews. That makes some sense. A weaker currency can increase exports and narrow a trade deficit. But how does one weaken a currency, and is it really a good idea? Today on the show, Rob Armstrong and new Unhedged newsletter reporter Aiden Reiter discuss the options. Also, we go long tomatoes and short Lamb Weston, notable manufacturer of french fries.

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The Trump trade

Tue, 23 Jul 2024 20:00:00 GMT

As the election nears, Wall Street is starting to talk more about what a bet on a second Trump presidency might look like. Today on the show, we cover possible outcomes for inflation, long-term bond yields, currency manipulation, corporate taxes, protectionism, isolationism, threats to the independence of the Federal Reserve and even the rally in small-cap stocks. Also we go long sterling and short the Russell 2000.

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You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

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Will a major revision of listing rules in the UK work?

Thu, 18 Jul 2024 20:00:39 GMT

The UK’s Financial Conduct Authority just released rule revisions that are meant to attract new listings on the country’s exchanges. These include legalising shares that move a lot of the power from investors to founders. Will this be enough to restart London as a hub for innovation? Today on the show Katie Martin and UK business correspondent Michael O’Dwyer talk about the new rules and whether they will help dynamic companies list in the UK. Also we go long professional services and shorts in the office.

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Investing in green tech

Tue, 16 Jul 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Last week the FT’s Moral Money writer Simon Mundy spoke with venture capitalist Vinod Khosla about 20 years of making big, long bets on renewable energy. Some have paid off, but most haven’t. Khosla is fine with that, and continues to look for big wins in the very long run on solutions such as fusion. Today on the show, Simon and Katie Martin discuss the future of green tech. Also, we short cars and electric bicycles.

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Paramount, Skydance and the streaming wars

Thu, 11 Jul 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Paramount and Skydance are merging. That’s a win for David Ellison, whose small studio will join a legendary one with a huge back catalogue and a nascent streaming platform. But is this merger of the old and new enough to compete in the new Hollywood? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong and deals reporter James Fontanella-Khan talk about the Paramount deal and the future of entertainment. Also, we take sides in the Euro soccer/football final this weekend.

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What elections in France and the UK mean for markets

Tue, 09 Jul 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Recent elections have changed politics in Europe, delivering a centre-left Labour government in the UK and shifting seats to a left alliance in the French parliament. Today on the show, Katie Martin discusses this new landscape, and what it means for global markets and finance, with the FT’s economics commentator Chris Giles. Also, we short political journalists and opinion polls.

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Can Morgan Stanley's CEO build a better bank?

Thu, 27 Jun 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Ted Pick became chief executive of Morgan Stanley earlier this year. In a recent letter to shareholders, he touted “the integrated firm” as a model for the bank's future. But it’s not a new idea, and it’s one that has proven very hard for banks to actually do. Today on the show, Rob Armstrong asks the FT’s US banking editor, Josh Franklin, if it’s even a good idea. Also we short the US housing market and summer in New York City.

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Are we all protectionists now?

Tue, 25 Jun 2024 20:00:00 GMT

On Thursday, two candidates for US president will debate each other. They are both protectionists. This is a huge change in US economic policy, and one that may have massive consequences in the decades to come. Today on the show, Robert Armstrong talks with the FT’s chief economics commentator, Martin Wolf, about the past and future of industrial policy. Also we go long ageing and long babies.

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You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Distressed IPOs

Fri, 21 Jun 2024 04:07:57 GMT

Golden Goose had a simple plan. Mass produce worn out sneakers, get stars to wear them, and sell them to the public. It was going great until the owner announced an IPO, and then pulled it. Today on the show, Katie Martin and James Fontenella-Khan discuss. Also, we go long German football and long sterling.

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You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Elon Musk’s big payday

Tue, 18 Jun 2024 20:00:00 GMT

On Thursday, shareholders of Tesla voted to re-approve a deal to reward Elon Musk with more than $50 billion worth of shares in Tesla, thus making one of the world’s richest men even richer. Also we go long teams without stars and short climate change.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Central bankers do nothing. Markets respond

Thu, 13 Jun 2024 20:00:00 GMT

The Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday, and markets went whooshing upwards, as if they thought no-move was a clear signal about the next move. For a bit anyway. Today on the show, Katie Martin is joined by Chris Giles, the FT’s economics commentator, to talk about the Fed and the crucial next few months before the US election in November. Also we short transatlantic rate arbitrage, exams and Nigel Farage.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Trade like a bot

Tue, 11 Jun 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Researchers at the University of Chicago took a fairly standard large language model of AI and fed it a bunch of balance sheets and income statements and asked it to make predictions about earnings. In backtests, AI beat human calls by a small margin, and outperformed the market generally. Have fund managers been dealt yet another kill shot? Katie Martin and Robert Armstrong discuss, and go long shareholder commitments, and the musical genius of Yuja Wang.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The gamma squeeze

Thu, 06 Jun 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Nvidia continues its rocket-like rise: Investors have piled in, as have day traders who play the stock with options. This is causing banks and market makers to load up on shares in order to cover trades. It's a feedback loop traders call the gamma squeeze, and some are concerned it’s distorting markets. Today on the show, Katie Martin talks about Nvidia and the gamma squeeze with correspondent George Steer. Also we go long the ECB and short proposals for a Texas stock exchange.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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What elections mean for markets this year

Tue, 04 Jun 2024 20:00:00 GMT

It’s a big year for democracy. Voters in Mexico and India just went to the polls. Elections in the UK and US are still to come. On today’s show, Rob Armstrong and Katie Martin talk through how markets are responding to the elections in Mexico and India. And they analyse how markets might react to the UK and US elections. Also, we go short slugs and stock-based compensation.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The billionaires’ tax

Thu, 30 May 2024 20:00:00 GMT

At a recent meeting of the G20, Brazil invited economist Gabriel Zucman to address the most powerful nations in the world, and argue for a global tax on the super-rich. Today on the show, European economics commentator Martin Sandbu joins Robert Armstrong to discuss whether a worldwide tax on the very richest could even happen, and how it might work. Also, we short the commercial real estate crisis and go long liberal democracy.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Robert Armstrong at robert.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Who killed Red Lobster?

Tue, 28 May 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Red Lobster used to be a respectable place to eat too much seafood. Now it’s bankrupt. Today on the show, host Rob Armstrong and the FT's Wall Street editor Sujeet Indap put on their bibs and pick apart the exoskeleton of a fast-casual icon. They talk about pasta water, real estate, and whether the real killer was the all-you-can-eat shrimp promotion. Also we go long Chili’s, and deliver the results of an informal art poll.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Rob Armstrong at rob.armstrong@ft.com and Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Where’s the commercial property meltdown?

Thu, 23 May 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Commercial property values in the UK and the US have been slow to adjust to the sharp increase in interest rates. Are sellers refusing to accept reality? Or has the property economy simply put itself on hold? Joshua Oliver covers real estate (and crypto) for the FT, and he walks us through it all. And talks about crypto.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The cocoa boom

Tue, 21 May 2024 20:00:00 GMT

The price of cocoa has exploded. Over the past year, it’s up about 300 percent. Today on the show, Katie Martin and commodities reporter Susannah Savage try to figure out what’s behind the run-up in cocoa, olive oil and other staples. Also we go long gardening and short AI copying our voices.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Bridgewater’s new boss

Thu, 16 May 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Bridgewater Associates is one of the largest hedge funds in the world, and one of the most unusual. Its founder, Ray Dalio, has retired and moved on to other things, such as deep sea submarines. Can the new chief executive keep the group’s legendary returns going? Today on the show, reporter Ortenca Aliaj joins Rob Armstrong to discuss. Also we go long Walmart and short the troubled merger of Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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GameStop again?

Tue, 14 May 2024 20:00:00 GMT

‘Roaring Kitty’, aka Keith Gill, aka the GameStop memelord, leaned in again this week, sparking a massive rally in the retailer and its sidekick, AMC. FT correspondents Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong take stock of the mayhem and ask if it's a sign that the animal spirits are back. Also we short gruelling exams and go long utilities.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The fight for Paramount

Fri, 10 May 2024 07:44:59 GMT

It's high noon for Paramount Studios, one of the most legendary names in Hollywood. In one corner, Wall Street and private equity. In the other corner, talented producer David Ellison, head of Skydance. OK, to be fair, he’s partnering with private equity, too. Today on the show, we break down the boss battle for Paramount with deals editor James Fontanella-Khan. Also we talk about sports.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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What’s next for Warren Buffett

Tue, 07 May 2024 20:00:00 GMT

The annual meeting of Berkshire Hathaway this past weekend was a celebration of Warren Buffett’s unparalleled record and his legendary charm. Today on the show, FT correspondents Katie Martin and Robert Armstrong talk about recent investments in energy stocks, Apple and the ultimate question: succession. Also, we invent a new festival – TrackerFest – and short climate credit shenanigans.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Listeners, a small correction: A Shell-operated plant in Canada was granted millions of carbon credits for CO₂ removal that never took place, for use by some of Canada’s largest oil sands companies, but Shell has clarified that Shell itself did not sell any of these particular credits.

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Is Fed policy working?

Thu, 02 May 2024 20:00:00 GMT

The Federal Reserve this week chose to hold interest rates unchanged. But inflation still continues to outpace its 2 per cent target. Today on the show, capital markets correspondent Kate Duguid joins us to ask if the US central bank is making the wrong decisions, and what options they have. Also, we short Starbucks and dissect Ray Dalio's bet on civil war.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Why the US dollar is the world’s problem

Tue, 30 Apr 2024 20:00:00 GMT

The American economy is strong — and the dollar is extremely expensive. Today on the show, we talk about how the strong dollar affects the rest of the world, pressuring importers, benefitting manufacturers, and causing capital to flow into the United States. Also we go long McDonald’s and long the British pub.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Bonus: The fraudster's guide to magic money with Tim Harford

Fri, 26 Apr 2024 04:00:39 GMT

The FT’s Rob Armstrong sits down with Tim Harford, host of the podcast Cautionary Tales, to discuss Ponzi schemes, how they spiral out of control and what differentiates them from bubbles — and from Amazon. Plus, we go long pyramid schemes and short, as usual, crypto.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Check out Tim’s podcast, Cautionary Tales, and the full story on Sam Israel’s Ponzi scheme here.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The diamond market disrupted

Thu, 25 Apr 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Diamond output by the mining giant De Beers is down 23% this quarter. Demand is slowing as a bounce from the coronavirus pandemic wears off and synthetic diamonds eat into market share. Today on the show, we try to understand the market for diamonds. Also, we go short Charles Dickens in the theatre and short UK weather.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Active changes to passive indices

Tue, 23 Apr 2024 20:00:00 GMT

When the S&P 500 finally let Tesla join the index a few years ago, its stock soared. Similarly, the fortunes of countries have changed when their debt and equities have been included on one index or another. Today on the show, we talk to FT contributor and former fund manager Toby Nangle about who runs these indexes, and if they should be regulated. Also we go long the FTSE 100 and short El Salvador’s debt cycle.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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How oil got to $90 a barrel

Thu, 18 Apr 2024 20:00:00 GMT

While we’ve been watching Nvidia and other sparkly tech stocks, oil has been sneaking up to touch $90 a barrel. Today on the show, we talk about oil supplies, demand and the role of geopolitics. Also, we go short Ark’s Cathie Wood and Unhedged’s Ethan Wu.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

You can email Katie Martin at katie.martin@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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High interest rate anxiety

Tue, 16 Apr 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Last year, Katie and Ethan made a bet about when the Fed would cut interest rates. Today, as the first quarter ends and markets flatten a bit, it’s time for one of them to eat crow. As for the other, he or she will gloat, but in a measured, slightly backpedalling way that won’t be too embarrassing in the future. Also, we go long Liz Truss’s PR manager and short cicadas.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Shopify vs Amazon

Thu, 11 Apr 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Shopify was an online darling during the pandemic but has faced challenges since then. However, it has still grown into an e-commerce site that handled more than $235 billion in transactions last year. Today on the show, FT reporter Anna Mutoh joins us to talk about Shopify, its failed attempt to start delivering packages, and where the company goes next. Also we go long Japan, and long the cherry blossoms of Brooklyn.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Should we worry about private credit?

Tue, 09 Apr 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Private credit is booming, nearing $2tn in assets globally. Most of that debt is being traded out of the public eye, a fact highlighted in the latest Global Financial Stability report from the IMF. Is the IMF right to be worried? We discuss. We also short media coverage of Jamie Dimon and go long vowels.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Rethinking Tesla and Apple

Thu, 04 Apr 2024 20:00:00 GMT

In the last months, the stock market has been a joyride, but not for two of the biggest names in tech: Tesla and Apple. Today on the show we look at how these two former high-flyers have come down in the last months, and even wonder what their role in the so-called Magnificent Seven tech stocks should be. Also we go long fundamental valuations, and long the Japanese family name Sato.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Navigating the next super cycle

Tue, 02 Apr 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Today on the show, we’re taking the long view, the very long view. Our guest is

Peter Oppenheimer, the head of macro research in Europe for Goldman Sachs, and the author of Any Happy Returns: Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets. We talk with him about how changes in technology and finance create cycles that shape markets, and investment returns, for decades. Also, we go long healthcare, short Tesla, and short private clubs.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Wall Street bets on Reddit

Thu, 28 Mar 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Reddit has never had a profitable year. And yet its IPO this week saw its shares skyrocket on the first day of trading. Today on the show, we ask if Reddit is a withering social network riding irrational exuberance, or a prescient play on AI’s growing need for user-generated answers. Also, we go long momentum and short illustrations.

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The great British bargain show

Tue, 26 Mar 2024 20:00:00 GMT

The major stock index in the UK, the FTSE 100, includes some of the biggest and most profitable multinational companies in the world. But in recent years the index has trailed the US markets and is now considerably cheaper. Today on the show, FT reporters Ethan Wu and Rob Armstrong ask if investors are overlooking a bargain. Also we go long cocoa and long the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company.

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Inside the crypto hype machine

Thu, 21 Mar 2024 20:00:00 GMT

FT correspondent Josh Oliver spent years covering crypto and the legal troubles of Sam Bankman-Fried. Last week, he published Hype Machine, a book about it all. Today he joins us to talk about SBF’s sentencing next week, FTX caretaker boss John Ray's new letter slamming SBF, and the many ways to fleece retail investors. Also we go long money laundering, and long pressing the recline button when flying coach, no matter who is sitting behind you.

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Listener Questions

Tue, 19 Mar 2024 20:00:00 GMT

You asked, we answered. Today on the show, we team up with our sibling podcast, Behind the Money, and answer questions from listeners. We’re tackling chips (both salty and silicon), market capitalizations, the future of India and more. And for even more, head over to Behind the Money, wherever you get your podcasts (Apple, Spotify, FT.com).

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Can the US stock market stand 3% US inflation?

Thu, 14 Mar 2024 20:00:00 GMT

This week's US inflation numbers came in and they’ve remained higher for longer than many expected, or wanted. How does this change the Federal Reserve’s outlook and will the US stock market respond or continue its jaunty ascent? Today on the show Katie Martin and Robert Armstrong unpack the numbers. Also, we go long UK pasty purveyor Greggs and short Tesla.

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Does factor investing still work?

Tue, 12 Mar 2024 20:00:00 GMT

Factor investing came out of academic work in the 1990s, and offered a way to pick stocks without relying on judgments about stories or sectors. It’s had good years and bad years, but has recently struggled to do more than match the market. Today on the show, Ethan Wu describes his visit to see AQR’s Cliff Asness, who has been using this style of investing for decades. Also we go long Big Tech AI spending, and short gold.

Link: Cliff Asness: AI is ‘still just statistics’

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Inside the traders’ black box

Thu, 07 Mar 2024 21:00:00 GMT

Market watchers have wondered for years about what really goes on inside trading firms like Citadel Securities, Susquehanna and Virtu. A recent ruling in a lawsuit brought by a medical company may provide some answers. Today on the show, host Ethan Wu asks FT reporter Joe Miller about the case, brought by Northwest Biotherapeutics. Also, we short Trader Joes and Temu.

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Learning to love the boom

Tue, 05 Mar 2024 21:00:00 GMT

Rates are up and so are the markets, baffling the bears. Today on the show, FT correspondents Ethan Wu and Katie Martin look at five reasons the market might be rationally booming, including investor sentiment numbers, the AI revolution, changing expectations about interest rates and several promising economic fundamentals. Also, we short the UK budget and go long our own show.

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Is ESG over?

Thu, 29 Feb 2024 21:00:00 GMT

ESG investing has been a dominant topic in finance for the past few years. But ESG seems to be taking a back seat. Today on the show, we talk about the future of mindful investing with Simon Mundy, who writes the Moral Money newsletter for the FT. Also, we go long legacy media and Sam Bankman-Fried’s chances for a short sentence.

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Three markets, three highs

Tue, 27 Feb 2024 21:00:00 GMT

In the last few weeks, markets have hit highs in the US, Europe, and Japan. Today on the show, we try to understand what has powered the results. We talk about chip company Nvidia, but also renewed optimism in Japan and the arrival of a new acronym describing the leaders in Europe: ‘Granolas’. Also we go long Berkshire Hathaway, and short gilets, or as Americans call them, “vests”.

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WeWork rework

Thu, 22 Feb 2024 21:00:00 GMT

WeWork, the co-working company founded by Adam Neumann, collapsed in bankruptcy last year. And since then, the commercial real estate market has only gotten worse. Which makes this a perfect time for value investors to swoop in. Today on the show, we try to figure out if WeWork will live to co-work another day. Also, we talk about Nvidia, because everybody else is talking about Nvidia.

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Active investors! Assemble

Tue, 20 Feb 2024 21:00:00 GMT

Of course we all know that passive investing delivers superior returns. But what if everyone is investing passively? Is there a case for active investing then? Recent research has shown that the explosion in index funds has made equities slower to respond to news. And also, it’s fun to be contrarian. So today on the show we explore cracks in the case against active investing. Also we go long RuneScape and cycling.

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The dilemma of the supercompany

Thu, 15 Feb 2024 21:00:00 GMT

We live in the age of supercompanies: massive, dominant players that seem to get better as they grow — for customers and investors. And they also make us uncomfortable about our rights and freedoms. Think Walmart, Apple, Meta and so many others. But how should investors view these new giants, and will the returns last forever? Also we short the world-ex-US trade and go long the gerontocracy.

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Are dividends back?

Tue, 13 Feb 2024 21:00:00 GMT

Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta just announced its first-ever dividend, which is something that rapidly growing tech companies rarely do. Dividends have been shunned in favour of corporate buybacks for decades. Is this a sign of change in the relationship between shareholders and corporations? Today on the show, we discuss the return of the dividend. Also we short internet tests, and go long frazzled-Englishwoman aesthetic.

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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How not to pick stocks

Thu, 08 Feb 2024 21:00:00 GMT

Each year the FT hosts a stockpicking contest. Today on the show, we go over our picks for 2023, which were brilliantly bad. We guessed wrong on housing, on streaming, and even on crypto. Of course, if listeners had bet against us, they would have done quite well. So naturally we’ve got five more stocks for 2024! Also, we go long Disney and short social media.

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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High-yield bond bonanza

Tue, 06 Feb 2024 21:00:00 GMT

Demand for riskier corporate bonds is intense. The spread between higher yielding (riskier) bonds and safer Treasuries is narrowing, and nearing long-term lows. Today on the show, we try to understand the hot market for these bonds, and ask what it might tell us about the rest of the year. Also, we go long Delaware and short the reinvention of WeWork.

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Will commercial real estate hurt regional banks?

Thu, 01 Feb 2024 21:00:00 GMT

New York Community Bancorp shares fell 38% on Wednesday, partly on worries about the bank’s exposure to commercial real estate. Today on the show, Ethan Wu is joined by Robert Armstrong and FT property correspondent Joshua Oliver, who explain what’s going on with NYCB, and what the bank’s troubles tell us about the commercial real estate market, regional banks and the broader economy. Also, we are both long and short workers returning to the office.

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Can China rebound in 2024?

Tue, 30 Jan 2024 21:00:00 GMT

While markets around the world took off last year, China continued to stumble. Will 2024 be any different? Today on the show, Ethan Wu and Katie Martin try to understand why the country is lagging, and if its leadership can do anything about it. Also, we go short snowball derivatives, and long God’s plan for crypto.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Boardroom games

Thu, 25 Jan 2024 21:00:00 GMT

New rules about how board members are elected could change how corporate America is governed. In March, the Starbucks shareholder meeting may be a first test for new powers long sought by unions and other activists. Today on the show, FT reporter Ortenca Aliaj joins host Ethan Wu to discuss a sea change in boardroom behaviour. Also we go long M&A and short the Oscars.

Link: How unions are fighting a boardroom battle at Starbucks

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Two stock markets, two takes

Tue, 23 Jan 2024 21:00:00 GMT

While the S&P 500 just hit a new high, the FTSE 100 is down about 3 per cent for the year. Today on the show, we talk about the two markets. First, we ask if antitrust cases might slow the tech companies powering the S&P 500, and second, we try to understand why the solid multinationals that make up the FTSE 100 can’t find any love. Also, we evaluate the mullet as a metaphor for a balanced portfolio. Our position: we are long and short.

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Is America overpriced?

Thu, 18 Jan 2024 21:00:00 GMT

There is an historically large premium on the S&P 500, when compared to markets in the rest of the world. That reflects strong outperformance in the past decade, but can that last? Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu and Robert Armstrong evaluate the emerging markets vs US trade. Also, we go long insurance, and short polyamory.

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Cash Rethink Energises Asset Markets

Tue, 16 Jan 2024 21:00:00 GMT

As interest rates jumped, cash ruled for a lot of investors. The payment for doing absolutely nothing – in the form of money market funds and other interest-bearing instruments – was the highest in decades. But that may be changing as equity markets outperform and the soft landing feels more like a reality. Today on the show, we re-evaluate sitting on the sidelines. Also we go long hairstyles in Taiwan and short the Big Tech stocks.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Introducing Untold: The Retreat

Mon, 15 Jan 2024 05:00:21 GMT

Introducing Untold, a new podcast from the special investigations team at the Financial Times. In its first series, The Retreat, host Madison Marriage examines the world of the Goenka network, which promotes a type of intensive meditation known as Vipassana. Thousands of people go on Goenka retreats every year. People rave about them. But some people go to these meditation retreats, and they suffer. They might feel a deep sense of terror, or a break with reality. And on the other side, they’re not themselves anymore. Untold: The Retreat launches Jan. 24.

Subscribe and listen on: Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

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Today's inflation numbers

Thu, 11 Jan 2024 21:00:00 GMT

Today on the show, we dig into the latest inflation numbers, examining the results for shelter, goods and energy, and think about what it all means for the 10-year Treasury yield. Also, we go long darts and short Tinder’s $499 monthly Select membership.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Tech stock winners

Tue, 09 Jan 2024 21:00:00 GMT

In July, the FT’s Rob Armstrong and Elaine Moore went head-to-head in a stock-picking competition, drafting their favourite stocks from the Magnificent Seven, the seven tech stocks dominating the markets. Today on the show, we announce the winner of our contest, and try to think about what’s in store for next year. Also we go long the rest of the S&P 500 and short AI chatbots.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Cool markets, hot takes

Thu, 04 Jan 2024 21:00:00 GMT

After a roaring December, the markets cooled a bit in the first days of 2024. Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu and Robert Armstrong think big thoughts about long yields in treasuries, the historical correlation of equities and debt, and the Big Tech stocks as an asset class. Also, we go long Alibaba and short commercial real estate.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The year ahead, according to AI, and humans

Tue, 02 Jan 2024 21:00:47 GMT

Today on the show, we’re looking at the year ahead, with AI by our side. Our colleague Bryce Elder at the FT built an online quiz that pits AI against analysts in writing prose about the future. We take the quiz, and make our own predictions. Also we go long and short.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The Unhedged Awards

Thu, 21 Dec 2023 21:00:00 GMT

Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu, Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong dole out the first-ever Unhedgies, awards for categories such as the best overall deal, scam, IPO, central banker – we do not choose Jay Powell, by the way — and a few others we came up with on the spot.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Markets gone wild

Tue, 19 Dec 2023 21:00:00 GMT

Last week’s Fed statements revealed that its Open Market Committee was thinking about the possibility of interest rate cuts at some point, and the markets responded with insane glee, unexpectedly sending the S&P 500 up to nearly an all-time high. Today on the show, hosts Katie Martin and Rob Armstrong try to figure out what exactly it all means, and what could derail the suddenly rosy future. Also, we go long fraud and short Christmas cards.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Thirty-seven years of wisdom

Thu, 14 Dec 2023 21:00:00 GMT

Jonathan Guthrie has been covering finance for 37 years. Today on the show, he talks with hosts Ethan Wu and Robert Armstrong about what he’s learnt, covering everything from market collapses to investing in banks. Also, we go long the return of the European otter.

Links:

What I have learnt in 37 years of financial journalism

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Central bank lookahead

Tue, 12 Dec 2023 21:00:07 GMT

Inflation has slowed in the US, the UK, and the EU. Will this mean interest rate cuts next year? Markets seem to think so, but comments from central bankers this week may temper that enthusiasm. Also, we go long the antitrust suit against Google, and long the UK’s campaign against greenwashing.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The return of crypto

Thu, 07 Dec 2023 21:00:00 GMT

Bitcoin just hit $40,000, Coinbase is up 300 per cent this year, and French bank Société Générale is rolling out a stablecoin. All this frothy news comes after a record penalty levied on Binance by the SEC and the guilty verdict against Sam Bankman-Fried. Today on the show, Ethan Wu asks Katie Martin why, and Katie asks Ethan why. Also we go short Kwasi Kwarteng and long central bank speak.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

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Introducing Hot Money: The New Narcos

Wed, 06 Dec 2023 21:00:00 GMT

The Financial Times’ award-winning podcast series Hot Money is back. In this series our reporter Miles Johnson investigates a mysterious murder in a small town that leads to a web of drugs, money laundering and state-sponsored assassinations stretching from Dublin to Dubai. At the centre is a cocaine super cartel that is revolutionising the global drugs market. This eight-part investigative podcast, published weekly, probes the links between criminals and legitimate businesses, and between governments and gangsters. Subscribe and listen on: Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Pocket Casts, Stitcher or wherever you listen to podcasts.

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Gold just set a record. Why?

Tue, 05 Dec 2023 21:00:00 GMT

The price of gold reached a record high last week. That’s surprising, because normally the price of gold goes down when interest rates go higher. Today on the show, we try to figure out what’s driving gold’s rise. Also, we go long Larry Fink and short the jobs report.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Down the liquidity hole

Thu, 30 Nov 2023 21:00:09 GMT

Market watchers cannot help but notice how the stock market and money supply often track one another. But does liquidity in the financial sector matter more to stock prices than the economy? In this show, we discuss the liquidity theory of markets and whether it holds water. Also, we go very long the late Charlie Munger, former number two at Berkshire Hathaway.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

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Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Have rates peaked?

Tue, 28 Nov 2023 21:00:00 GMT

Markets have rallied almost 11 percent in November, in part on expectations that the Fed is done raising rates. Today on the show, we look at the Fed’s likely pause and how investors are responding. Also we go long Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon as a DJ. And we make a daring neutral call on the future.

Links:

Can David Solomon DJ? An investigation

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What the London Stock Exchange really trades

Thu, 23 Nov 2023 21:00:11 GMT

The London Stock Exchange now makes most of its money selling data, and only a small percentage listing stocks. FT digital markets correspondent Nikou Asgari joins Katie Martin to ask what that tells us about global markets, data and the future of London as a finance hub. Also we go short the cryptocurrency BNB and long UK chancellors who don’t blow up the markets.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

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The zombie companies

Tue, 21 Nov 2023 21:00:00 GMT

As interest rates rise, funding for a lot of marginally profitable companies is drying up. These corporate “zombies” are wandering the markets, looking for the cheap credit they used to feast on. Today on the show, we take a look at companies on the edge of life and the private equity giants that own some of them. Also we short OpenAI and regrettably go long Covid.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

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What does Walmart know?

Thu, 16 Nov 2023 21:00:00 GMT

It’s earning season, and the first big news might be from Walmart, whose stock dropped 7 per cent after it reported concerns about the health of the consumer. This is a counter narrative to the strong gross domestic product and inflation numbers we’ve been talking about. Today on the show, we dig into Walmart’s view and see what it might tell us about the future of the economy. Also we go out on a limb with two contrarian longs: big box retail and the news judgement of the American people.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

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Big Tech roundup: Tesla, Nvidia, Apple and more

Tue, 14 Nov 2023 21:00:00 GMT

Four months ago, the FT’s Rob Armstrong and Elaine Moore placed their bets on two portfolios of three stocks each picked from the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks that have been dominating markets this year. Today on the show, we check in on their portfolios, and try to think about where they’re headed next. Also, we go long Chicago.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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A drastic solution to exploding US government debt

Thu, 09 Nov 2023 21:00:00 GMT

How many bears does it take to change a lightbulb? None, it will never happen. Join us today as we debrief reporter Jenn Hughes, recently back from a conference hosted by the biggest bear of them all, Jim Grant, longtime editor-in-chief of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. The cautious conferees had one thing on their minds: the explosion in government debt. One solution: yield curve control. Also, we go long cats, and short chewing tape.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Pub quiz showdown: Alphaville vs Unhedged

Tue, 07 Nov 2023 21:00:00 GMT

Today on the show, host Katie Martin pits two teams against one another in a historic finance trivia showdown, complete with trash talk, ridiculously hard questions, and strongly-worded protests. In one corner, the cerebral duo behind the FT’s Alphaville newsletter, Alexandra Scaggs and Robin Wigglesworth. In the other, the brains behind the FT’s Unhedged newsletter, our own Robert Armstrong and Ethan Wu. An epic clash like this will not be seen again in our lifetimes, or at least not until another slow news week.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Sam Bankman-Fried takes the stand

Thu, 02 Nov 2023 19:12:04 GMT

Reporter Joshua Oliver joins us just hours after the closing arguments of the fraud trial of Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the FTX crypto exchange. We talk about why it’s hard to find a smoking gun in a white-collar criminal trial, why Bankman-Fried testified and what it was like for Oliver to hear his own name in the testimony. Also we go long and short a hedge fund trying to build a news organisation.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Why so down, S&P 500?

Tue, 31 Oct 2023 20:00:00 GMT

GDP numbers are strong. Wages are strong. Household debt is relatively low. So why is the stock market so blue? Since July 31, it is down 10 percent – formally a “correction” – and that includes the strong performance of the seven Big Tech stocks. What gives? Today on the show, we look at three factors putting the brakes on a boom. We also go long our own listeners, a few of whom Katie bumped into at a wedding in Ireland.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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A massive GDP number

Thu, 26 Oct 2023 20:00:00 GMT

In the third quarter, the US economy, as measured by annualised GDP, grew 4.9%. In an environment of skyrocketing interest rates, that is an extraordinary number. And it’s being powered by an extraordinary force: the American consumer. Today on the show we try to understand why they have remained so resilient, and if there’s room for more growth. Also, we go long Morgan Stanley and short the avians of the Antarctic.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Is China a bargain right now?

Tue, 24 Oct 2023 20:00:00 GMT

The CSI 300, which tracks the largest publicly traded companies in China, just fell to pre-pandemic lows, despite aggressive attempts by President Xi Jinping to prop up the market. The drags on equities include slowing growth, a crisis in the property market and notable geopolitical tensions. Today on the show, we try to figure out if this is the beginning of a long-term crisis or a historic buying opportunity. Also, we go long trades by Bill Gross and Bill Ackman and short getting hit by vans.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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FTX trial update

Thu, 19 Oct 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Today on the show, FT correspondent Josh Oliver joins us in the New York studio just minutes after leaving the courtroom. Oliver has been covering the trial of Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange FTX, since it started on October 2. We talk about the procession of former friends testifying against him, the trading firm Alameda, the seven balance sheets and the possibility of SBF taking the stand.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Japan’s new direction

Tue, 17 Oct 2023 20:00:00 GMT

The Japanese stock market is on a tear, up 20% this year. Some of that may be due to a weakening yen, and maybe a flight to safety, but it is likely largely the result of a serious effort to rethink how Japan does business. The latest push: a “name and shame” campaign to call out companies that aren’t optimising returns for shareholders. Also, we go short fudging expense reports and long techno bros who are long-winded.

For a free 30-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Public problems for private equity

Thu, 12 Oct 2023 20:00:00 GMT

For years, low interest rates let private equity deliver huge returns to investors. But now rates are up, and private equity is struggling. Many PE firms are turning to financial engineering to boost results. Today on the show, we wonder how that’s going to turn out. Also we go long the dollar as reserve currency and short the Birkenstock IPO.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Three markets we’re watching

Tue, 10 Oct 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Conflict in the Middle East is dominating the news this week. Today on the show, we’re looking at three markets that traditionally respond to disruption: oil, the yen and gold. Also, we go long training for marathons and short the next 10 years for private equity.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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The Biden scorecard

Thu, 05 Oct 2023 20:00:00 GMT

We don’t really do politics, but with election season underway, candidates are arguing about the American economy. Incumbents say it’s terrific. Challengers say it’s awful. Which is it? Today on the show, we look at the economy from several viewpoints and try to figure out which is more accurate. Also we go long Q3 earnings and short coverage of Sam Bankman-Fried.

Links:

Today’s Unhedged newsletter

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The increasingly odd bond market

Tue, 03 Oct 2023 20:00:00 GMT

The 10- and 30- year Treasury yields just hit their highest levels since 2007, sending prices down. And at the same time, equities moved in the same direction. That’s not supposed to happen. Today on the show, we try to figure out what is happening and why. Also we short our previous long on Three Arrows Capital and go long the Japanese yen.

Links:

Please join the FT and Nikkei for a webinar on the revival of the Japanese stock market on Wednesday October 11 at 14:00 London time: japanesestockmarketrevival.live.ft.com

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

How high, and for how long?

Thu, 28 Sep 2023 20:00:00 GMT

The markets tried denying that the Federal Reserve really would keep rates “higher for longer”. But in the past week, equities and debt finally seemed to accept that high interest rates are here to stay. That means changes in the prices of assets, but it also has a lot of implications for everyone from tech start-ups to small countries with big loans. Today on the show, we try to think about the new world of high interest rates. Also, we go short small cap stocks and long London’s grocery stores.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The strong US dollar gets stronger

Tue, 26 Sep 2023 20:00:00 GMT

The US dollar has been on a tear, just reaching a six-month high. It might be a sign investors and traders are getting used to the idea that US interest rates will be “higher for longer.” Today on the show, we look at the greenback’s continuing strength and try to understand how it will affect global markets. Also, we go long London and long Jamie Dimon’s interest rate calls.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Well, actually: Our ‘Dumb Money’ movie review

Thu, 21 Sep 2023 20:01:05 GMT

Dumb Money, out this week, stars Seth Rogen, America Ferrera and several very tricky finance moves. We liked Seth and America, but we definitely have questions about the portrayal of clearing houses, order flow, and stock dilution. If you’ve watched Star Wars and wondered how the Millenium Falcon could carry enough fuel to travel at the speed of light, this episode is for you. Also we go long Jay Powell and long auto workers.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Basis trade freakout (low key)

Tue, 19 Sep 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Hedge funds are piling into the basis trade — a bet on the difference between the price of Treasuries and the price of Treasury futures — and they are levering up, too. Today on the show, we ask: Are we watching genius at work? And if not, how much is this all going to cost? Also, we go long all the other central banks and short comedians from Sacramento.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bonus Interview: Robyn Grew, Man Group CEO

Mon, 18 Sep 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Robyn Grew is the new CEO of the Man Group, which manages more than $150 billion over multiple hedge funds. On September 3, she joined Katie Martin, the FT’s Markets Editor, at the FT Weekend Festival at Kenwood House in north London. Perched on high stools behind a kitchen counter meant for a cooking demonstration, Grew and Martin discussed how the end of the low-inflation era has forced a rethink for everyone from retail investors to managers of sophisticated hedge funds.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Three IPOs test the market

Thu, 14 Sep 2023 20:00:00 GMT

As we recorded our show, Arm, the British chip designer, was finally going public in a much-watched IPO. Following in the next weeks are grocery picker Instacart and the strangely fashionable sandal maker Birkenstock. How they trade will tell us a lot about the markets. Also, we go short the euro and make a daring value play on the reputation of Elon Musk.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A Tale of Two Housing Markets

Tue, 12 Sep 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Inflation is hitting the US and the UK, but housing prices are going up in the US and down in the UK. Today on the show, we ask why, learn about two completely different ways of thinking about mortgages and try to figure out which one works better. Also we go long Turkey, finally, and short an FT reader who’s really annoyed by Canada’s economy.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Big win for Big Crypto

Thu, 07 Sep 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Grayscale Investments manages funds of digital assets – cryptocurrency – for investors. They just won a case against the US Securities and Exchange Commission, which could eventually let it, or another manager, offer an ETF that holds bitcoin. US Financial Editor Brooke Masters and podcast regular Rob Armstrong talk with Ethan about what a world of crypto for regular investors might look like. Also we go long the US Treasury, and short the administrative state.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on X, formerly Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Good job numbers and a bad attitude

Tue, 05 Sep 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Summer’s nearly over, autumn is approaching, and the jobs numbers came in just right. So what are we worried about? Besides the slowdown in China, there are also concerns about the sagging bond market and a drought affecting the Panama Canal. Also, we go long the education and medical sectors and short … fried cheese.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The central bankers’ rodeo

Tue, 29 Aug 2023 20:00:00 GMT

The central bankers of the world are just back from Jackson Hole, Wyoming, where they gathered to discuss the global economy. Two new papers dropped at the event, and together they say a lot about what worries policymakers: public debt and the Treasury markets. Also, we go long the SEC’s private fund regulations and short the neutral interest rate.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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It’s tough out there for Goldman Sachs

Thu, 24 Aug 2023 20:00:00 GMT

The press has been savaging Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon. And only the Unhedged Podcast is brave enough to defend him. A little bit. Well, we’re not saying he’s the greatest ever, but there are a lot of interesting reasons it is getting harder to be a secretive financial group and consistently make billions. Also, we go even longer on Japan and short our ability to make predictions about Nvidia.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hot new bad idea

Tue, 22 Aug 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Zero-day options are now almost 50 percent of the options market. But what are they? And why would anyone take these bets? Today on the show, host Ethan Wu and Alphaville’s Robin Wigglesworth discuss the latest way to gamble on the markets and address concerns that it all might blow up. Also we go short the Republican debate and long the Bloomberg terminal.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Disney’s Tragic Kingdom

Thu, 17 Aug 2023 20:00:00 GMT

In an alternate corner of the multiverse, Disney is a family-friendly company that reliably puts out iconic films and turns them into billions of dollars through licensing and theme park visits. In our universe, they are fighting a tough battle for streaming viewers, reeling from a messy public CEO swap, struggling to find a hit and trying to make things better by starting a gambling operation. Today on the show, Ortenca Aliaj joins host Ethan Wu to watch the fireworks. Also we go long British football and short our own wit.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Ortenca Aliaj (@OrtencaAI) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

China slows down

Tue, 15 Aug 2023 20:00:00 GMT

China’s economy has been growing faster than almost any other for a generation, so a slowdown is unfamiliar territory. Today on the show we look at three indicators — the CPI, exports and property sales — and try to understand why growth in China is finally slowing, and what it means for the rest of the world. Also, we go short cable news and long Argentina as a perpetual lesson in economics.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Icahn has problems?

Thu, 10 Aug 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Carl Icahn is one of the most successful investors of all time, but his bet against the US economy has cost him billions of dollars. Now Hindenburg Research, the short seller, has come after Icahn and his publicly-traded fund, Icahn Enterprises. Hindenburg claims Icahn’s generous dividends are unsustainable. Today on the show, we ask: Can Icahn rally? Also, we go short investment bankers, and long stowaways.

Links:

- Icahn Enterprises halves dividend after short seller attack

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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How bonds make — and break — nations

Tue, 08 Aug 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Bonds started as a tool of the state, but quickly came to determine its fortunes. Today on the show, FT Alphaville editor Robin Wigglesworth joins us to talk about how bonds have overtaken banking as the engine of the economy, and why that might be good and why that might be dangerous. Also, we go short the soft landing and long Nintendo.

Links:

How bonds ate the entire financial system

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Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Uber finally delivers

Thu, 03 Aug 2023 20:00:00 GMT

After a decade, billions of dollars and almost five years on the public markets, Uber has at last turned a profit. In the previous quarter, it made $326 million dollars. Today on the show, we ask: What took it so long? And why is it so hard to make money matching riders with drivers? Also, we go long the 10-year US Treasury, and short cultural criticism.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The case for a soft landing

Tue, 01 Aug 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Bringing down inflation can cause massive recessions. But three indicators suggest that this time it might be coming down without there being a crash. Today on the show, we look at how the latest CPI, real GDP, and consumer confidence numbers suggest the economy could be on the golden path to the mythical soft landing. Also, we go long robber barons and short broken glass.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The billionaire charged with insider trading

Thu, 27 Jul 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Joe Lewis, 86, is a billionaire. He made his money trading currency, among other things. And he likes to keep a low profile. That could change with his appearance in court this week in New York, responding to insider trading charges. His bail is set at $300mn. Legal correspondent Joe Miller joins Ethan Wu to discuss how not to break the law. Also, we go long medical innovations and short the UK’s most respectable bank.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Big week for central banks

Tue, 25 Jul 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Interest rates have driven the conversation about markets over the past year. And this week, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan will all be making announcements. Katie Martin and Ethan Wu discuss how potential rate changes will drive the market news. Also Katie is long UK stocks — finally! — and Ethan goes short . . . civilisation.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The private credit boom

Thu, 20 Jul 2023 20:00:00 GMT

As regulators continue to worry about big and small banks, a lot of midsized companies are turning to private credit for loans. These loans are issued at floating interest rates, can be hard to value, and are one of the fastest growing asset classes. Today on the show, we ask: What could go wrong? We also go long the soldier who crossed into North Korea, and short the Economics Job Market Rumors forum.

Links:

No, private credit markets aren’t really that big

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Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Getting inflation wrong

Tue, 18 Jul 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Last week’s US inflation numbers were surprisingly low, a very moderate 3 per cent. That could be due to an increasing supply of workers and goods. And it might *not* be due to the Federal Reserve’s tough talk over the past year. Today on the show, we reconsider everything we thought we knew about the past 18 months of inflation. Also, we go long corporate bond exchanges, and short… the dry martini.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The 2023 Unhedged stock draft

Thu, 13 Jul 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Seven stocks are powering the market: Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla. How will they do in the second half of this year? Ethan Wu hosts as Rob ‘Value This’ Armstrong takes on Elaine ‘The Lex Flex’ Moore. In three rounds they pick their winners for the second half of 2023, and tell us why they chose them.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Why the bond market matters now

Tue, 11 Jul 2023 20:00:00 GMT

The bond market dwarfs the stock market. But for more than a decade, equities have been the subject of conversation, and returns. Now that has flipped. Today on the show, hosts Ethan Wu and Katie Martin take apart the bond market, and explain why it matters more than ever. Also, we go long Mark Zuckerberg and short … FinTwit.

Links:

- Taxi test for bonds signals end of the ‘Tina’ era

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

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Harry Markowitz found a free lunch in finance

Thu, 06 Jul 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Markowitz, a titan of finance who won the 1990 Nobel prize in economics, died last month. He showed, in a mathematically rigorous way, that diversification could bring higher returns without higher risk.

Alex Scaggs joins Ethan to explain how Markowitz’s work led to a way of thinking that has become ubiquitous in modern finance (and that has spawned legions of haters).

Also, we go short economic forecasting and long Beyonce.

Links:

- Read Alex Scaggs’s Markowitz obit in the FT.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Will empty offices hurt the US economy?

Thu, 29 Jun 2023 20:00:00 GMT

The persistence of working from home, the rise in interest rates, and job cuts in finance and tech all spell trouble for the owners of office buildings. How bad will it get? And will the troubles in commercial real estate spill over to the broader economy?

Links:

- Read the Unhedged newsletter on commercial real estate and office REITs.

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Does Japan’s stock market rally have legs?

Tue, 27 Jun 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Japanese stocks have been on a tear this year. There are a few reasons for this: Japan looks better than lots of other places, Japanese monetary policy is giving stocks a boost, and its corporate governance is becoming more friendly to shareholders. But is the rally overextended? Also, we go long Greek bonds and short the liquidators trying to get $1.3bn from the founders of Three Arrows Capital.

Links:

Read the Unhedged newsletter on Japan

For a free 90-day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter. You can email Ethan at ethan.wu@ft.com.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What’s going on with car insurance?

Thu, 22 Jun 2023 20:00:00 GMT

Car insurance costs in the US have shot up by 23% in the past 18 months, dwarfing the overall rise in inflation. What exactly is happening? And what lessons can be learnt? We discuss how idiosyncratic factors like a new law in Florida and even Taylor Swift’s latest tour are showing up in US prices. Also, we go short US housing and long SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son and his quirky presentations.

Links:

What’s going on with US car insurance?

For a free 90- day trial to the Unhedged newsletter go to: https://www.ft.com/unhedgedoffer

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Why investors hate this bull market

Wed, 21 Jun 2023 07:28:18 GMT

On paper, it’s a strong market. The S&P 500 is up more than 14 per cent this year. But for professional investors, it’s confusing. Most of the gains are driven by just seven stocks, all big tech names such as Apple and Nvidia. Take those seven out and the market is essentially flat, leaving traders wondering if they’re sitting out an AI bubble, or missing a real rally. Also, we go long gilts, which are yielding 5 per cent, and long …lettuce.

Links:

Stock market scramble has left investors skittish despite rally

Subscribe to the Unhedged newsletter

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is crypto a security, bro?

Thu, 15 Jun 2023 20:00:37 GMT

Crypto is at a crossroads. As exchanges and currencies blow up, the US Securities and Exchange Commission is ready to step in. But is crypto a security, like a stock? Or a tradable item of speculation, like a Beanie Baby? Today on the show, Robert Armstrong and Ethan Wu argue about the benefits and risks of regulating crypto. Also, we go short home prices, and long … the bone trade.

Subscribe to the Unhedged newsletter

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Where’s the recession?

Tue, 13 Jun 2023 20:00:17 GMT

The US economy remains confusing. Markets continue to predict a slowdown but unemployment remains low. Today on the show, we try to figure out what job numbers, manufacturing and credit can tell us about a possible recession and an end to rate rises. Also, we are long the bros at Three Arrows Capital (sort of), and the US stock market.

Subscribe to the Unhedged newsletter.

Follow Ethan Wu (@ethanywu) and Katie Martin (@katie_martin_fx) on Twitter.

Read a transcript of this episode on FT.com

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Introducing Unhedged

Tue, 06 Jun 2023 10:50:16 GMT

Ethan Wu, Katie Martin and other markets nerds at the Financial Times explain the big ideas behind what’s happening in finance right now. Every Tuesday and Thursday.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.