Walker Crips' Market Commentary

Global uncertainty continues and the UK faces a deterioration in sentiment

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 14:52:25 GMT

UK markets faced a sharp deterioration in sentiment in the final week of the tax year, as escalating tensions around the Iran conflict weighed heavily on business confidence. The Institute of Directors (“IoD”) index fell to a record low, reinforced by survey evidence from the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (“ICAEW”), highlighting a rapid deterioration in corporate outlook. Inflation risks intensified, driven by surging energy prices, with analysts expecting the energy price cap to rise by 18% in July. Food inflation is also projected to accelerate to 9% by year-end from 3.3%, adding further pressure on households. Markets responded by pricing in renewed rate hikes, although Bank of England (“BoE”) Governor Andrew Bailey pushed back, cautioning that markets may be overreacting and signalling that policymakers remain focused on supporting growth through an energy-driven shock.

Stocks featured:

3i Group, Babcock International Group and Berkeley Group Holdings

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

This podcast is intended to be Walker Crips Investment Management’s own commentary on markets. It is not investment research and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation to buy, sell or trade in any of the investments, sectors or asset classes mentioned. The value of any investment and the income arising from it is not guaranteed and can fall as well as rise, so that you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Movements in exchange rates can have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of any non-sterling denominated investment. Nothing in this podcast constitutes advice to undertake a transaction, and if you require professional advice you should contact your financial adviser or your usual contact at Walker Crips. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FRN: 226344) and is a member of the London Stock Exchange

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK economy volatility after the Iran conflict disrupted global supply chains

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 12:32:02 GMT

Last week, the UK economy experienced high macroeconomic volatility as stagflation fears intensified after the Iran conflict disrupted global supply chains. March’s Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to a six-month low, while consumer expectations also dropped as households faced increases in energy prices. Initial panic over Bank of England (BoE) rate hikes, driven by the energy crisis, faded as BoE officials dampened inflation fears. They argued that the domestic economy lacks the momentum to sustain a 2022-style price spiral where costs drove wages and prices higher. Downing Street remains in active crisis management; Prime Minister Starmer is set to meet business leaders to navigate the fallout and discuss how the government and private sector can collaborate. Chancellor Reeves is attempting to avoid Truss-era panic by delaying unfunded universal bailouts, with broad energy support postponed until at least the autumn...

Stocks featured:

BP, Endeavour Mining and 3i Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK inflation fears and worrying employment figures are causing an economic storm

Tue, 24 Mar 2026 11:48:34 GMT

Last week, Bank of England ("BoE") Governor Andrew Bailey warned markets against getting excited on rate rises after the Monetary Policy Committee ("MPC") voted unanimously for a steady hand, keeping rates at 3.75%. A conflict-driven energy price surge has caused markets to factor in an interest rate hike by September, with up to three rises anticipated this year due to inflation fears. The UK labour market is concerning: jobless claims rose by 24,700 in February, and wage growth hit a five-year low of 3.9%. Rising energy costs could trigger a new price shock; Cornwall Insight forecasts the price cap will rise by £332 annually in July. Political uncertainty is high as PM Keir Starmer's government faces internal pressure, with former deputy PM Angela Rayner warning that time is running out before the May local elections...

Stocks featured:

Diploma, BP and Endeavour Mining

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Flatlining GDP and Oil hitting $100 a barrel has caused stagflationary shocks in the economy

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 12:21:00 GMT

The UK economy was hit by a stagflationary shock this week as Brent crude breached $100 a barrel. Even before the Strait of Hormuz crisis, official data showed Gross Domestoc Product (“GDP”) flatlined in January, missing the 0.2% growth forecast, leaving the country vulnerable to the energy supply squeeze. The Office for Budget Responsibility (“OBR”) warned the conflict could drive inflation up to 5% by year-end, wiping out recent progress. Consequently, the Bank of England (“BoE”) is effectively cornered as Money markets are now expecting a 70% chance of a 0.25% hike to 4% by late 2026, abandoning near-term cut hopes. With manufacturing orders collapsing under soaring costs, and households delaying purchases due to inflation fears, the Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) must now weigh the risk of cementing a recession against a spiralling, supply-driven price shock...

Stocks featured:

Centrica, Rentokil Initial and Smiths Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ongoing global uncertainty with the continuing conflict in the Middle East

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 13:54:41 GMT

Last week, Bank of England (“BoE”) policymaker Alan Taylor noted that the economic impact of the escalating Middle East conflict is uncertain, and that the UK faces downside growth risks if energy costs persist. A conflict-driven energy price surge has led markets to reduce expectations for a March rate cut to below 50%, with traders entirely pricing out a second rate reduction for 2026 due to spiralling inflation fears. The UK labour market presents a worrying picture, with youth unemployment spiking to 16.1% and the Office for Budget Responsibility (“OBR”) forecasting overall unemployment to peak at a 12-year high of 1.93 million. Rising energy costs have triggered fears of a new price shock, causing economic confidence to plummet, with the Institute of Directors (“IoD”) index dropping to -63 in February. Political uncertainty remains high as PM Keir Starmer's government faces backbench pressure after a by-election loss to the Green Party...

Stocks featured:

Rightmove, Entain and Intertek Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

By-election results cause political uncertainty and the US-Israel war in Iran spikes crude oil prices

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 13:20:12 GMT

Last week, Bank of England (“BoE”) Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) member Alan Taylor noted that inflation appears to be heading towards normalisation, paving the way for a potential dovish shift. Governor Bailey's belief that a fall in inflation is "baked in" has led markets to price in an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut on the 19th March. The UK labour market is weakening, with job advertisements at a five-year low and youth unemployment, although above the EU average, worsened by nearly a million young Britons not in education, employment or training. Businesses and consumers fear job losses, as shown by a dip in the GfK Consumer Confidence measure, exacerbated by rising payroll taxes and minimum wage increases. Political uncertainty persists after PM Starmer's Labour Party lost the Gorton and Denton by-election to the Green Party, with Reform UK in second place...

Stocks featured:

London Stock Exchnage Group, RELX PLC and Hikma Pharmaceuticals

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Monetary Policy Committee suggests there may be rate cuts and geopolitics drive markets

Tue, 24 Feb 2026 14:36:55 GMT

Last week, Bank of England (“BoE”) Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) member Catherine Mann signalled she is edging closer to backing an interest rate cut, with markets now fully pricing in two reductions by year-end as inflation eases to 3%. The UK labour market is cooling, with unemployment at a cycle high of 5.2%. Small businesses anticipate job cuts due to April's increases in minimum wage and National Insurance. Political uncertainty persists amidst speculation that Manchester mayor Andy Burnham may challenge Prime Minister (“PM”) Keir Starmer. Despite this, institutional investors such as Schroders are increasing UK debt exposure, buying longer-dated gilts, believing monetary policy will outweigh near-term political risks...

Stocks featured:

Compass Group, St. James's Place and 3i Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

AI and policy drive volatility in global markets

Tue, 17 Feb 2026 13:19:12 GMT

Last week, the Bank of England's (BoE) Deputy Governor, Sarah Breeden, signalled that interest rate cuts could arrive within the next couple of meetings as inflation eases, with markets currently pricing in two 25 basis point reductions this year. Elsewhere, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member, Catherine Mann, links US trade wars to UK inflation via higher Chinese export prices. The long-term labour market downturn is stabilising, with candidate availability up and the decline in permanent hiring slowing to an 18-month low. Political uncertainty, fuelled by speculation over Prime Minister Starmer’s leadership, has dampened sentiment, leading investors to cut UK asset and debt exposure. As a result, almost 80% of business leaders are prioritising resilience over investment due to political and international trade pressures....

Stocks featured:

Schroders, Coca-Cola HBC and St. James' Place

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Leadership instability pushes businesses to find stability

Tue, 10 Feb 2026 14:39:32 GMT

In the first week of February, the Bank of England held rates at 3.75% in a split 5-4 vote, with Governor, Andrew Bailey, stating a March cut was a “50-50 call”. Data shows actual business activity is healthy: the Services sector (54.0) and Manufacturing (51.8) are both well above the 50.0 neutral mark, indicating solid growth. The job market is also stabilising as hiring downturns ease. However, future confidence is low as surveys show CEOs prioritising "resilience over investment" due to political uncertainty, with 80% of firms pausing capital plans to weather the storm. The political instability is partly a consequence of the Peter Mandelson appointment controversy, which has put Prime Minister Keir Starmer's position in peril. Starmer ousted Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney over the weekend to suppress opposition, yet Cabinet ministers are reportedly urging him to stand aside as Angela Rayner and Wes Streeting are preparing leadership challenges. This volatility is forcing a repricing of UK assets, pushing 10-year gilt yields to 4.54% and weighing on sterling. To stimulate growth, Chancellor Rachel Reeves is shifting policy toward stronger EU economic relations...

Stocks featured:

GSK, Imperial Brands and RELX

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

City of London at a critical juncture

Tue, 03 Feb 2026 16:13:34 GMT

Last week, the Bank of England's (“BoE”) weekly short-term repo allotment hit a record high of over £100 billion, marking the shift to a repo-led system, while the BoE considers tokenised assets as eligible collateral. The UK labour market softening continued, with Adzuna reporting that December job vacancies fell 15% year-on-year to a 2020 low, as rising payroll costs slowed hiring. This supports the majority view of a March rate cut, despite BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stressing the need to boost market resilience. Globally, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Xi agreed on a "strategic partnership," resetting UK-China relations with progress on whiskey tariffs and visa waivers, alongside cooperation on equipment used for restricting small boat crossings. Chatham House noted Beijing views the UK as a stable partner amidst US policy "disruption," with low current investment, 0.7% of UK foreign direct investment, offering significant growth potential...

Stocks featured:

3i Group, Fresnillo and Lloyds Banking Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Inflation bites as growth holds firm

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 10:13:31 GMT

Last week, UK economic data revealed a mix of rising price pressures and surprising resilience in activity. Inflation surprised on the upside in December with the headline Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) rising to 3.4%, driven by higher airfares and tobacco duty, a development likely to instil policy caution at the Bank of England (“BoE”) next month. However, economic activity accelerated, as the January Purchasing Managers Index (“PMI”) recorded its strongest upturn since April 2024, hitting a 21-month high of 53.9, which S&P Global noted is indicative of a 0.4% quarterly growth rate. Retail sales also beat expectations with a 0.4% expansion in December, though a quarterly decline in goods purchased suggests underlying household consumption remains weak. In financial markets, gilts headed for their worst weekly performance since November amid political risk, while Vanguard announced plans to offload approximately £1.9 billion of UK shares to reduce "home bias" in its funds...

Stocks featured:

Admiral Group, Endeavour Mining and Rentokil Initial

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK growth beats expectations, but uncertainty remains

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 11:35:32 GMT

Last week the Bank of England ("BoE") released data showing unexpected resilience in November’s gross domestic product ("GDP"), which expanded by 0.3%, surpassing the 0.1% forecast and ending a two-month decline. The growth was driven by a rebound in both services and manufacturing, aided by Jaguar Land Rover’s recovery following a cyberattack, despite ongoing structural risks. At the same time, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey defended the importance of economic institutions and open trade, urging resistance to populist attacks and warning that undermining bodies such as the International Monetary Fund ("IMF") weakens their ability to highlight economic risks. Meanwhile, the Office for National Statistics ("ONS") may delay its new labour market survey by six months, potentially until May 2027, due to technical difficulties. Adding to concerns, the Institute for Public Policy Research ("IPPR") highlighted vulnerabilities in the UK economy, noting that supply chain disruptions linked to China could cost £1.5 billion annually for solar projects and jeopardise 90,000 electric vehicle jobs unless the government implements a 'securonomics' framework...

Stocks featured:

Pearson, Schroders and Whitbread

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Gilts rally as BoE rate cut bets grow

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 11:24:13 GMT

Last week UK markets rallied as investors flocked to gilts, putting them on track for their best week since October, with benchmark yields falling more than 0.1% to nearly 4.4%. This fixed income resurgence was underpinned by a government pivot away from long-term borrowing and intensifying bets on an April rate cut from the Bank of England (“BoE”). Economic data supported the dovish outlook as the labour market showed signs of significant strain; potential redundancies surged to over 33,000 in late 2025, the highest level in nearly three years, prompting strategists to forecast that deteriorating macro conditions will force policymakers to ease rates sooner than previously expected...

Stocks featured:

Associated British Foods, BAE Systems and Marks & Spencer

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets brace for slower growth

Tue, 06 Jan 2026 10:24:46 GMT

UK markets endured a cautious week as fresh data reinforced concerns about a softening economic backdrop and limited policy headroom. Surveys of economists pointed to a deteriorating labour market outlook, with unemployment expected to rise toward 5–5.5% by the end of 2026 amid weak growth and slowing wage momentum. Business sentiment also weakened, with a British Chambers of Commerce survey showing fewer firms expecting turnover growth and rising concern around tax and inflation pressures. Consumer behaviour remained subdued with KPMG and Barclaycard data highlighting reluctance to spend heading into 2026, with the first annual decline in card spending in five years. Manufacturing data offered some relief, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) revised slightly lower but still at a 15-month-high, though growth remained skewed toward larger firms and exports continued to contract...

Stocks featured:

Endeavour Mining, Melrose Industries and Rolls-Royce Holdings

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bank of England eases as fiscal strains bite

Tue, 23 Dec 2025 10:09:56 GMT

Last week the Bank of England (“BoE”) cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%, with Governor Andrew Bailey signalling optimism for hitting the inflation target by late spring and suggesting openness to further easing. This dovish shift, which also noted artificial intelligence-driven job displacement risks, contrasts with other policymakers' hawkish concern over "hot" wage growth. Analysts believe further cuts beyond 3.5% will require stronger evidence of cooling pay pressures. UK retail sales unexpectedly fell by 0.1% in November, driven by drops in food and online sales. However, the GfK Consumer Confidence index surprisingly rose to -17 in December on increased major purchase intentions, indicating moderating caution despite a subdued economic outlook...

Stocks featured:

Bunzl, Endeavour Mining and Fresnillo

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK GDP surprise shakes markets

Tue, 16 Dec 2025 09:58:51 GMT

The past week revealed unexpected weakness in the UK economy, with Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) contracting by 0.1% in October against expectations for modest expansion. The decline was driven by falls in both services and construction, alongside a steep 17.7% drop in motor vehicle production, as pre-Budget fiscal anxiety weighed heavily on output. Despite this immediate slowdown, the Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) upgraded its growth outlook, raising its 2026 GDP forecast to 1.3% and 2025 to 1.4%, citing a temporary boost from government spending while warning that deep-rooted structural problems remain. Meanwhile, the latest Bank of England (“BoE”) & Ipsos survey signalled a gradual easing in public inflation expectations for the year ahead to 3.5%, though hawkish policymakers continue to warn of persistent upward risks...

Stocks featured:

Informa, Unilever and WPP

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Private capital markets in spotlight

Tue, 09 Dec 2025 10:33:33 GMT

The past week saw increased regulatory focus and a cooling labour market. The Bank of England (“BoE”) launched a "system-wide exploratory exercise" to stress-test private equity and credit markets, which hold 15% of UK corporate debt. The exercise will be run over two rounds, allowing officials to examine the impact of a crisis on the private capital market as well as on the wider financial system. Regulators around the world are concerned about the build-up of risks in the rapidly expanding private credit market after the collapse of the US car parts supplier First Brands and subprime auto lender Tricolor. UK Employment data showed a slowdown, with the BDO Employment Index hitting a 14-year low, and KPMG reporting continued declines in permanent placements and vacancies due to high costs and budget uncertainty. Despite this, persistent wage pressure for skilled labour pushed permanent salary inflation to a five-month-high, offering a slight sign of stabilisation...

Stocks featured:

Antofagasta, Diageo and JD Sports

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Budget 2025: Markets exhale, business confidence sinks

Tue, 02 Dec 2025 12:22:55 GMT

The week was defined by Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ pivotal budget, which combined £26 billion in tax rises with increased spending commitments. Despite the Office for Budget Responsibility (“OBR”) upgrading 2025 growth to 1.5%, the reaction from the business community was negative. Following the tax rises, KPMG countered the OBR, warning growth will stall to 1% in 2026. Corporate sentiment crashed as the Institute of Directors (“IoD”) reported near-record low confidence, while the Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) saw service optimism fall at its fastest rate in three years. Although a £22 billion fiscal buffer calmed markets, the cost was a collapse in business investment intentions to pandemic lows. Furthermore, with the Bank of England (“BoE”) warning it may "look through" one-off price cuts, the rate path remains complicated despite markets pricing a near-certain December cut...

Stocks featured:

Lloyds Banking Group, St. James's Place and Whitbread

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Budget tension meets a stalling UK economy

Tue, 25 Nov 2025 12:22:27 GMT

UK markets faced a difficult week as incoming data highlighted a loss of economic momentum ahead of this week’s Budget. The UK flash Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) for November fell to a two-month low, with a slowdown in the services sector outweighing a modest recovery in manufacturing, signalling quarterly growth of just 0.1%. Retail sales fell 1.1% month-on-month, the first decline since May, while consumer confidence weakened sharply, with both GfK and British Retail Consortium (“BRC”) surveys showing significant deterioration. Inflation eased to 3.6% in October after three months at 3.8%, while core inflation softened to 3.4%, aligning with Bank of England (“BoE”) expectations. Pay settlements rose to 3.3%, the highest level this year, adding to cost pressures, while hawkish Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) members warned that policymakers cannot be complacent, highlighting ongoing upside risks...

Stocks featured:

Games Workshop, Halma and JD Sports Fashion

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Countdown to a December interest rate cut

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 12:54:52 GMT

The case for a December Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cut strengthened significantly last week, as a string of data pointed to a stalling economy and a rapidly cooling labour market. Third quarter gross domestic product (“GDP”) growth fell short of expectations at just 0.1%, with the lack of momentum reflecting continued weakness. Further to this, UK unemployment figures rose to 5%, the highest since 2021, prompting traders to price in an 80% chance of a BoE rate cut in December. In addition, UK wage growth is stalling, with a recent KPMG/Recruitment and Employment Confederation survey showing near 4-year lows, indicating to the BoE that wage pressures are easing. All eyes will now be on Wednesday's inflation data, forecast to ease to 3.6%, which would support the case for a more dovish BoE...

Stocks featured:

3i Group, SSE and Vodafone Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The waiting game: Rate cuts in sight as budget pressure builds

Tue, 11 Nov 2025 10:57:04 GMT

The Bank of England’s (“BoE”) Monetary Policy Committee delivered a narrow 5–4 vote to keep interest rates unchanged at 4%, marking one of the most finely balanced decisions in recent years. The split highlights the delicate equilibrium policymakers face amid uneven data. The BoE signalled that inflation, last recorded at 3.8% in September, has likely peaked and is now easing, keeping a December rate cut firmly on the table with markets pricing a 60–70% probability of a 0.25% reduction. Governor Andrew Bailey’s decisive vote, coupled with dovish comments acknowledging that a 3.5% terminal rate “fairly describes” his outlook, reinforced market conviction that the easing cycle could begin soon. Economic indicators were mixed with the UK Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) rising to 52.2, driven by services strength (52.3), while manufacturing stabilised (49.7) and construction contracted sharply (44.1)...

Stocks featured:

Airtel Africa, InterContinental Hotels Group and Rightmove

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets brace for the BoE’s next move

Tue, 04 Nov 2025 11:29:29 GMT

The Bank of England’s (“BoE”) Monetary Policy Committee meets this Thursday to determine the UK’s next interest rate decision, with markets broadly expecting rates to remain unchanged. However, a growing camp of analysts believes recent macroeconomic developments could tilt the balance towards a rate cut. Governor Andrew Bailey’s vote will likely prove decisive, though the contrasting stances of Deputy Governors Sarah Breeden (dovish) and Clare Lombardelli (hawkish) underscore the committee’s divisions. The meeting takes place against a backdrop of persistently weaker UK business sentiment, with the Institute of Directors’ (“IoD”) confidence index registering lower, close to September’s record low. On the inflation front, employers expect pay settlements to ease to 3%, and shop prices have fallen for the first time since March; both developments strengthen the case for a more dovish BoE stance...

Stocks featured:

Airtel Africa, GSK and WPP

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rate cut probability increases resulting in market rally

Tue, 28 Oct 2025 16:05:59 GMT

The UK economy presented a nuanced picture last week, with signs of stability tempered by persistent structural challenges. Inflation held steady at 3.8% year-on-year, below forecasts, fuelling speculation of a Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cut in December, with futures now pricing a 75% probability. However BoE officials remained cautious as Governor Andrew Bailey highlighted Brexit’s drag on growth, while Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene resisted quarterly cuts. Economic data were mixed, with the Purchasing Managers' Index rising to a two-month high (51.1) and retail sales surprising positively, while borrowing hit a five-year peak and construction activity reached an 11-year low. Consumer sentiment improved slightly, but UK public inflation expectations over the next 12 months climbed to 4.2%, underscoring the BoE’s delicate balancing act...

Stocks featured:

London Stock Exchange Group, Rentolkil Initial and Fresnillo

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Budget pressure builds as the UK economy stalls

Tue, 21 Oct 2025 10:43:22 GMT

The UK economy presents a mixed outlook as the Bank of England (“BoE”) remains cautious about inflation persistence. Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) member Catherine Mann warned of clear upside risks to inflation and advocated maintaining tight policy, while fellow MPC member Megan Greene argued closer EU ties could boost productivity and ease price pressures. Chief Economist Huw Pill signalled a slower pace of easing amid uncertain shocks, and Governor Andrew Bailey faced scrutiny over policy direction at global meetings. Economic data were uneven, with unemployment rising to 4.8% and wage growth easing slightly, while gross domestic product rose 0.1% in August. Retail sales and consumer sentiment softened as household costs remained high, and grocery inflation accelerated to 5.2%. Business confidence weakened amid rising costs and potential tax hikes...

Stocks featured:

Endeavour Mining, Pearson and Whitbread

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Strains show in the UK’s economic outlook

Tue, 14 Oct 2025 12:53:50 GMT

The UK economy continued to show signs of strain this week as growth indicators stayed subdued and business confidence weakened. The construction Purchasing Managers' Index rose slightly to 46.2, though activity remained weak amid soft residential and civil engineering output. Business sentiment fell to a three-year low, weighed by tax and inflation concerns, while footfall and retail demand declined. Labour market data revealed slowing wage growth and rising candidate availability, reinforcing softer employment conditions. The Bank of England (“BoE”) warned of risks from stretched artificial intelligence-related (“AI”) valuations, while policymakers Catherine Mann and Huw Pill stressed the need for restrictive policy to ensure inflation returns to target...

Stocks featured:

IAG, Imperial Brands and Unite Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US investors bet on rate cuts as government shutdown begins

Tue, 07 Oct 2025 09:58:10 GMT

This week US equities recovered their losses from the prior week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new record highs, with broad-based gains across the market. Small-cap stocks, as measured by the Russell 2000 Index, outperformed the broader market, signalling a renewed investor appetite for riskier assets. Headlines were dominated by the partial US government shutdown, which began after funding lapsed. Markets largely shrugged off concerns about the economic impact. However analysts noted that the current political gridlock could lead to a longer than average shutdown this time around...

Stocks featured:

AstraZeneca, JD Sports Fashion and Mondi

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hawkish US Federal Reserve dampens market optimism

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 10:27:25 GMT

Global markets were mixed last week, with the US equity market ending lower. Investor optimism regarding the pace of future interest rate cuts was dampened by hawkish comments from several Federal Reserve ("Fed") officials. The S&P 500 finished the week lower, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fared worse, falling 0.9%. The Russell 2000 Index also registered its first weekly loss since early August. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted on Tuesday that the economy is in a “challenging situation” due to near-term inflation risks and downside labour market risks. He also acknowledged that “equity prices are fairly highly valued.” Other regional Fed officials echoed these concerns, cautioning against further monetary policy easing amid persistently high inflation. Despite this, within the S&P 500, the energy sector rallied, advancing alongside oil prices in response to President Donald Trump’s call for European Union nations to cease purchases of Russian oil and gas. Most other sectors declined...

Stocks featured:

Antofagasta, Kingfisher and Metlen Energy & Metals

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Holding steady: Why the BoE is not cutting further

Tue, 23 Sep 2025 09:46:20 GMT

The UK economy continues to flash mixed signals, leaving the Bank of England (“BoE”) at the centre of investor attention. Governor Andrew Bailey stressed that interest rate cuts are “not yet over,” acknowledging softness in the labour market but remaining cautious over persistent inflation risks. The Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) voted 7–2 to hold the base rate at 4%, while slowing quantitative tightening (“QT”) to £70 billion annually from £100 billion to calm gilt market volatility. Economic data provided a similarly uneven picture. Retail sales surprised positively with a 0.5% month-on-month rise, driven by strong clothing demand, yet consumer confidence weakened as borrowing pressures and elevated prices weighed on households. Wage growth, now at its slowest pace in three years, underscores the fragile backdrop, while August government borrowing of £18 billion exceeded forecasts and highlighted fiscal strain...

Stocks featured:

Pets at Home, Spire Healthcare and Trustpilot

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jobs cool, spending stalls, but London IPOs look to rebound

Tue, 16 Sep 2025 14:15:49 GMT

The UK economy continues to show mixed signals, with labour market weakness increasingly evident. Data from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation and KPMG revealed starting salaries growing at their slowest pace since the Covid pandemic, while staff availability surged, reflecting cooling demand. Consumer trends remained fragile with Barclaycard reporting spending up just 0.5% year-on-year, well below inflation, and the British Retail Consortium’s shopper confidence index fell further as food price pressures persisted. Retail sales saw modest support from warm weather, but underlying volumes remained soft. July gross domestic product (“GDP”) was flat, dragged down by production, although services activity remained resilient. Infrastructure financing is surging, and fintech investment continues to perform strongly, providing pockets of growth even as inflation expectations rise and fiscal pressures mount...

Stocks featured:

Anglo American, Associated British Foods and BAE Systems

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Budget pressures and investor anxiety weigh on UK markets

Tue, 09 Sep 2025 11:28:42 GMT

UK economic signals painted a mixed picture last week. Retail sales beat expectations in July, though sharp backward revisions tempered optimism, while Halifax data showed house prices at record highs despite affordability concerns. Yet headwinds remain, as employment contracted at its fastest pace in four years following the payroll tax raid and borrowing costs climbed, heightening the risks of a housing slowdown. Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) growth offered resilience, but manufacturing and construction remained weak, with cement production at 1950s lows. Bank of England (“BoE”) officials struck a cautious tone, signalling slower rate cuts and bond sales, as inflation expectations ticked higher, underscoring persistent structural fragility...

Stocks featured:

Admiral Group, Babcock International and Fresnillo

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets react as UK faces fiscal and inflation pressures

Tue, 02 Sep 2025 11:20:15 GMT

The UK economy presented a mixed picture last week as inflationary pressures persisted alongside signs of a weakening labour market. Food price inflation accelerated to 4.2% year-on-year, driven by higher global supply costs and seasonal pressures, while energy bills are set to rise by more than expected this winter, adding to household strains. Labour market data showed vacancies at a five-year low and analysts warned unemployment could soon reach 5%. Retail sales volumes also weakened for an 11th consecutive month in August. Meanwhile, shops have raised prices by the most since the end of 2023, according to the Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) distributive trades survey. Meanwhile, Bank of England (“BoE”) officials struck contrasting tones: Governor Andrew Bailey flagged weak growth challenges, while Catherine Mann cautioned that inflation risks remain elevated, reinforcing the fragile balance the BoE faces between growth and inflation...

Stocks featured:

Bunzl, Fresnillo and Kingfisher

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tech turbulence hits Wall Street

Tue, 26 Aug 2025 10:33:53 GMT

The S&P 500 index rallied on Friday to close 0.29% higher, recovering some ground after four consecutive days of losses. The technology sector led the decline earlier in the week as the artificial intelligence (“AI”) sector came under pressure, with the so-called “Magnificent Seven” stocks suffering a three-day sell-off. Concerns over future profitability combined with stretched valuations acted as the trigger, following research from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology indicating that 95% of organisations are achieving no returns from AI. Sentiment was further weighed by comments from OpenAI chief executive Sam Altman, who cautioned that an AI bubble may be forming...

Stocks featured:

JD Sports Fashion, Rolls-Royce and WPP

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK Economy: Resilient or Fragile?

Tue, 19 Aug 2025 10:18:35 GMT

This week the UK economy continued to present a conflicting picture, marked by both resilience and fragility. London bore the brunt of tax-driven job losses, shedding 45,000 roles since October, as payroll tax hikes and a higher minimum wage hit private employers hardest. Meanwhile, artificial intelligence (“AI”) is beginning to reshape the labour market, with technology and finance job postings down 38% over the past two years. The Office for National Statistics (“ONS”) posted a gross domestic product (“GDP”) figure which surprised to the upside, expanding 0.3% over the previous quarter, with services, industry and construction delivering broad-based gains. However, exports to the US plunged to a three-year low under tariff pressure, underscoring trade vulnerabilities. Policymakers remain cautious as the Bank of England (“BoE”) warned inflation risks could limit scope for rate cuts, a view reinforced by wage growth holding at 5%...

Stocks featured:

Admiral Group, Beazley and Spirax-Sarco Engineering

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

BoE cuts interest rates but remains cautious

Tue, 12 Aug 2025 13:30:56 GMT

The UK ended last week with uncertainty surrounding the Bank of England’s (“BoE”) policy direction following a “hawkish” 0.25% cut to the interest rate, bringing it to 4%. The decision was narrowly split (5 votes to 4) and accompanied by higher near-term inflation forecasts and cautious guidance, leaving only a 50% chance of another rate cut this year. In September, the BoE may slow gilt sales, as quantitative tightening appears to have restricted conditions more than expected. Economic data pointed to underlying fragility, with Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) readings revised upward but still signalling a slowdown. Construction activity contracted sharply, retail footfall slipped and elevated borrowing costs continued to restrain investment. Economists expect multiple rate cuts in 2026 as the BoE balances growth support with inflation control...

Stocks featured:

Fresnillo, Hikma Pharmaceuticals and Smith & Nephew

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Gilt Trip: The UK’s Fiscal Tightrope

Tue, 05 Aug 2025 11:38:51 GMT

The Bank of England (“BoE”) is reportedly considering slowing the pace of quantitative tightening amid rising gilt yields, with Deutsche Bank suggesting this could save the Treasury up to £5 billion next year. Meanwhile, economic signals remain mixed. EY upgraded its UK 2025 growth forecast to 1%, though momentum is expected to remain subdued. Retail sales remain weak, and business distress is rising, with nearly 50,000 firms in critical condition. The International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) expects two more BoE rate cuts this year, supporting growth prospects, while Lloyds’ business confidence hit a 10-year-high. However, consumer caution persists, with savings surging and food inflation posing risks ahead of Christmas...

Stocks featured:

Mondi, Rolls-Royce and St James's Place

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK sentiment slides as data disappoints

Tue, 29 Jul 2025 15:12:31 GMT

UK economic sentiment remains subdued as Deloitte reported their UK consumer confidence index fell by 2.6 points to -10.4 by the end of last quarter and is now at its lowest level since the first quarter of 2024. The steepest declines were seen in perceptions of job security, which fell by 4.8%, and concerns over debt, down 3.7%. The Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) came in at 3.6% from 3.4% the month before. We see concerns of inflation acceleration as retailers warned that Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ proposed business rate hike from 2026 could push up food prices. Other economic indicators also pointed to weakness, with the July flash Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) signalling a loss of momentum as the composite reading declined. Retail sales posted a modest 0.9% month-on-month recovery in June, but underlying volumes remained weak. However, the job market showed tentative improvement, with London leading a modest rise in vacancies. The Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) also flagged softer industrial orders but improving optimism. Markets now expect two Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cuts by year-end, despite inflation likely remaining above target through the third quarter...

Stocks featured:

BT Group, Melrose Industries and Reckitt Benckiser Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Walking the tightrope of inflation versus growth

Tue, 22 Jul 2025 10:43:02 GMT

Last week UK economic data painted a mixed picture, with inflation and labour market dynamics pulling in opposite directions. Headline inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.6% in June, driven by higher food and wage costs, prompting criticism of Labour’s tax policy. However, unemployment climbed to a four-year high of 4.7%, while job hiring fell sharply and wage growth moderated - bolstering expectations for a potential Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cut in August. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey signalled a willingness to ease policy if labour weakness persists, although policymaker Catherine Mann warned inflation remains above target. Meanwhile, Bailey voiced concerns over Donald Trump’s tariff plans, citing risks to global economic stability, and stressed the International Monetary Fund’s (“IMF”) role in addressing imbalances...

Stocks featured:

Barrett Redrow, Experian and Intermediate Capital Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK growth falters, BoE August rate cut looms

Tue, 15 Jul 2025 11:05:31 GMT

UK economic data reinforced expectations for an August Bank of England ("BoE") rate cut despite near-term inflation risks. Gross domestic product (“GDP”) unexpectedly contracted 0.1% in May, marking a second consecutive monthly decline, while first-quarter growth was revised up to 0.4%. Services grew modestly but falls in production and construction dragged overall output. Updated Office for National Statistics (“ONS”) data revealed higher-than-reported producer inflation, with input prices rising 0.6% in January. Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) member Alan Taylor warned of downside risks and urged faster easing. Business sentiment remained fragile, with BDO’s hiring index at a 13-year low and Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (“ICAEW”) confidence at a three-year low. Yet, Royal Bank of Scotland reported a pick-up in services-driven private sector activity. Firms also flagged price hikes to offset payroll tax rises, highlighting persistent cost pressures...

Stocks featured:

BP, Glencore and WPP

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Welfare U-turns & fiscal tightropes

Tue, 08 Jul 2025 12:42:36 GMT

UK economic data last week painted a mixed picture. Retail sales remained subdued, with BDO’s High Street Sales Tracker rising just 0.6% year-on-year, marking six consecutive months of in-store sales growth trailing inflation. The construction sector continued to contract, although the Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) improved to 48.8, its highest level since January. Encouragingly, first-quarter gross domestic product (“GDP”) growth was confirmed at 0.7% quarter-on-quarter - the fastest in the Group of Seven (“G7”) - yet this momentum is unlikely to be sustained amid falling living standards. The services sector experienced its fastest expansion in 10 months, with a PMI of 52.8, but job losses persisted. The Bank of England (“BoE”) maintained a cautious stance, with Governor Andrew Bailey reinforcing hopes for rate cuts in light of a softening labour market and mixed inflation signals...

Stocks featured:

British American Tobacco, Berkeley Group Holdings and Pershing Square Holdings

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Fiscal pressures mount, but M&A drives market optimism

Tue, 01 Jul 2025 10:42:36 GMT

The UK economy presented a mixed picture last week. Retail sales fell for the ninth consecutive month, with the Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) survey revealing a sharper decline in June and pointing to further weakness in July. Although the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) rose slightly to 50.7, signalling marginal growth, manufacturing output remained subdued, and consumer sentiment held flat, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty. Long-term inflation expectations ticked higher, raising concerns over future price stability, while food inflation accelerated to 4.7%, underscoring persistent cost pressures. The Bank of England (“BoE”) maintained a cautious stance: Governor Andrew Bailey defended quantitative easing, while Monetary Policy Committee members Megan Greene and Dave Ramsden expressed diverging views on the direction of interest rates. Adding to the subdued outlook, the Resolution Foundation projected stagnant household incomes until 2030, highlighting sustained challenges to living standards. Overall, despite signs of resilience in certain areas, underlying pressures continue to weigh on the UK’s growth outlook...

Stocks featured:

Babcock International, JD Sports Fashion and Rolls-Royce Holdings

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From defence stocks to dividends: What’s driving the market?

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 14:16:12 GMT

The UK economy is showing mixed signals amid ongoing inflationary pressures and signs of slowing growth. Bank of England (“BoE”) Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene highlighted that inflation remains sticky, driven by persistent wage growth and weaker supply conditions that could keep prices elevated over the medium term. Despite a recent rise in the minimum wage, wage growth has eased slightly, and retail sales have slowed sharply to their weakest pace in over a year. Consumer confidence remained fragile amid ongoing cost-of-living concerns, while April’s gross domestic product (“GDP”) contracted by 0.3%, exceeding expectations for a mild decline. Employment indicators showed softer hiring activity and retail footfall fell despite seasonal factors, reflecting cautious household spending. The BoE also warned banks to prepare for tighter liquidity conditions as reserves approach lower thresholds and noted that households have increased cash hoarding amid global uncertainties...

Stocks featured:

BT Group, easyJet and Melrose Industries

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sticky inflation, soaring oil & soft sales: Can growth hold on?

Tue, 17 Jun 2025 12:58:32 GMT

Stocks featured:

BP, easyJet and Persimmon

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Disinflation signals and political calculations

Tue, 10 Jun 2025 12:21:07 GMT

UK economic indicators pointed to persistent disinflation trends last week, even as uncertainty remained elevated. Bank of England ("BoE") Deputy Governor, Sarah Breeden, reinforced the case for policy easing, noting inflationary pressures are fading and labour market risks warrant caution. Several Monetary Policy Committee members echoed this sentiment in parliamentary appearances, with Swati Dhingra flagging downside risks to growth and Catherine Mann warning of tensions between rate cuts and quantitative tightening. The final composite Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) in May improved to 50.3, led by a rebound in services, but backlogs declined and cost pressures persisted. The Confederation of British Industry’s (“CBI”) private sector growth indicator slipped to a two-year low, and BoE’s Decision Maker Panel survey saw little movement in inflation expectations...

Stocks featured:

Antofagasta, Fresnillo and WPP

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Investor confidence rises – But for how long?

Tue, 03 Jun 2025 12:27:12 GMT

UK economic data last week highlighted renewed inflation pressures and persistent uncertainty. Food inflation hit a one-year high in May, rising 2.8% year-on-year. Kantar reported that grocery prices surged 4.1%, the highest in 15 months, driven by higher payroll taxes and minimum wage hikes. Business confidence slumped, with Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) surveys showing sharp declines across services, as firms cited rising employment costs and tax burdens. The Bank of England (“BoE”) Governor, Andrew Bailey, urged caution on rate cuts, citing inflation uncertainty and trade risks, while Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) member Alan Taylor advocated for easing due to downside risks. Despite headwinds, Lloyds’ business barometer rebounded to 50%, buoyed by Donald Trump’s softened tariff stance and a US-UK trade deal. However, artificial intelligence (“AI”) disruption concerns mounted, with youth unemployment rising to 12.6%...

Stocks featured:

Auto Trader Group, GSK and M&G

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Brexit reboots, bonds react and Fresnillo shines

Tue, 27 May 2025 12:34:26 GMT

Last week, UK markets digested a slew of conflicting economic signals. April’s inflation unexpectedly rose to 3.5%, a 15-month high, driven by higher energy costs, tax changes and wage pressures, dampening expectations for further Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cuts. Gilt yields surged and the pound touched a two-year high. BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill warned against aggressive easing, citing persistent services inflation and weakening disinflation momentum, while policymaker Swati Dhingra defended her vote for a 0.5% cut, highlighting a long-term outlook. The Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) data showed the private sector contracted slightly in May, dragged by manufacturing weakness, despite services expansion. Retail sales jumped 1.2% in April, buoyed by sunny weather, supporting first-quarter growth of 0.7%. Consumer confidence improved, helped by better economic prospects and recent trade deals. The outlook remains uncertain as inflation risks challenge the case for monetary easing...

Stocks featured:

Diploma, Fresnillo and JD Sports Fashion

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From tariffs to take-off: Global markets rebound

Tue, 20 May 2025 13:21:08 GMT

Global equity markets delivered strong gains last week, with the United States leading the advance following encouraging developments in trade negotiations and solid earnings results. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq moved higher after the US and China reached an agreement to ease trade tensions during talks held in Switzerland. The agreement involves a 90-day suspension of most newly imposed tariffs. As part of the deal, US tariffs on Chinese goods will drop from 145% to 30%, while Chinese tariffs on US imports will fall from 125% to 10%. Markets responded positively to the prospect of a more constructive trade relationship between the world’s two largest economies. Additional optimism stemmed from corporate activity, including confirmation that Saudi Arabia will be permitted to purchase advanced semiconductor chips from major US technology firms. Meanwhile, Qatar Airways placed a record aircraft order worth $96 billion from Boeing. These announcements further boosted sentiment, helping major indices recover above their early April levels by the end of the week...

Stocks featured:

Airtel Africa, Entain and Imperial Brands

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tariff tensions ease, but uncertainty lingers

Tue, 13 May 2025 10:43:51 GMT

Global markets showed mixed results last week, with the US equity market ending lower after a strong performance in the previous week, when the S&P 500 rebounded above its early April decline following President Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement. The losses were partly offset this week by positive de-escalation developments with China. It was confirmed yesterday, following talks in Geneva, that the two countries would reduce tariffs on each other’s goods for at least the next 90 days. The additional levies imposed by the US on China earlier this year will be lowered to 30%, while China’s tariffs will decline to 10%...

Stocks featured:

Centrica, Endeavour Mining and International Airlines Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Tariffs, tech & turning points: markets rebound on trade optimism

Tue, 06 May 2025 13:28:03 GMT

Markets rebounded last week, led by the United States (“US”), as global risk sentiment improved amid signs of de-escalating trade tensions. China confirmed it is evaluating recent US overtures, while negotiations with Mexico progressed constructively. The S&P 500 recovered to levels above the early April decline following Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement...

Stocks featured:

Associated British Foods, Glencore and Smith & Nephew

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

From cyber hits to copper highs: This week in markets

Tue, 29 Apr 2025 13:04:33 GMT

UK economic sentiment weakened sharply last week as global trade tensions intensified. The International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) cut the UK’s 2025 growth outlook to 1.1%, the steepest downgrade among major European economies, but noted the UK may still outpace G7 peers. Economic activity slowed sharply, with the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) falling to a 29-month low of 48.2, signalling a contraction. Consumer confidence deteriorated amid rising cost pressures, though retail sales surprised to the upside. Business leaders voiced concern over red tape costs and the threat of tariffs, warning of imminent job losses unless a US trade deal is struck. However, KPMG’s survey found financial services leaders remain optimistic about London's prospects, planning significant investments despite global uncertainties. The Bank of England (“BoE”) indicated it would weigh the impact of trade shocks at its May meeting, with rate cuts still in play. Overall, markets faced mounting signs of economic stress alongside cautious policymaker rhetoric...

Stocks featured:

Antofagasta, Croda International and Marks & Spencer

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Trading tensions & tariff troubles: UK vs US

Tue, 22 Apr 2025 15:05:59 GMT

Last week, the UK economy grappled with escalating global trade tensions. UK inflation eased more than expected in March, with headline Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) falling to 2.6% from 2.8%, fuelling expectations of a Bank of England (“BoE”) interest rate cut in May. Core and services inflation also edged lower, reinforcing the view that monetary policy may soon shift. Economists noted tariffs might prove disinflationary, especially with weaker domestic growth. Markets are now almost fully pricing in three rate cuts this year. However, policymakers face uncertainty, with BoE policymaker Megan Greene highlighting the unpredictable impact of US tariffs and dollar weakness on UK inflation. Labour market signals remained mixed: claimant count rose and payrolled employment fell, but job postings climbed 3.3%, business sentiment weakened, CFOs grew defensive and the Institute of Chartered Accountants in England and Wales (“ICAEW”) confidence turned negative...

Stocks featured:

Bunzl, Endeavour Mining and J Sainsbury

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Interest rates, IPO woes & Trump’s tariff pause: What’s next?

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 12:49:40 GMT

Last week was marked by turmoil, as global trade tensions and market volatility drove a sharp shift in UK interest rate expectations. Investors are now pricing in up to four Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cuts this year, with a 0.25% move likely in May and nearly 0.9% of easing by year-end. Former BoE officials called for bold action, including a 0.5% cut or even an emergency meeting. The BoE flagged financial stability risks from global fragmentation, while deputy governors flagged growth headwinds from US tariffs. UK growth forecasts for 2025 were slashed to 0.8%, and confidence remained fragile despite February’s surprise 0.5% Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) rise. Labour market data showed a rise in candidate availability and soft wage pressures. Consumer sentiment flatlined, and retail footfall declined due to Easter timing and global uncertainty. Inflation implications remained unclear, further complicating the BoE’s policy outlook...

Stocks featured:

BP, Fresnillo and GSK

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Trump's tariffs cause global market mayhem

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 12:56:23 GMT

Donald Trump’s long-anticipated tariff plan was unveiled last week, marking a significant escalation in US trade policy. At its core is a universal 10% tariff on all imports, supplemented by steep country-specific duties including 34% on China, 32% on Taiwan, 46% on Vietnam and 20% on the European Union (“EU”). These rates were calculated using a deficit-to-export ratio methodology. The United Kingdom, which maintains a goods trade surplus with the US, was subject only to the baseline rate, and is expected to prioritise securing a bilateral trade agreement rather than pursuing immediate retaliation. Canada and Mexico retained their existing 25% tariffs, though USMCA (United States - Mexico - Canada Agreement) compliant goods remain exempt. In response, China imposed a blanket 34% tariff on all US imports, intensifying global trade tensions and catalysing a broad market sell-off...

Stocks featured:

Associated British Foods, Glencore and St. James’s Place

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets jittery ahead of Trump's trade tariff announcement

Tue, 01 Apr 2025 12:17:42 GMT

The UK economy continued to display mixed signals, with improved business activity but lingering weaknesses. The composite Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) hit a six-month high of 52 in March, led by a rebound in services (53.9), though manufacturing slumped to an 18-month low (44.6). Bank of England (“BoE”) Governor Andrew Bailey emphasised trade and artificial intelligence (“AI”) as key to future growth but warned of weak productivity. Inflation fell more than expected to 2.8% in February, though services inflation remained high at 5%. Consumers are cutting spending amid economic uncertainty, while small businesses plan to pass Chancellor Rachel Reeves' tax hikes onto customers. The Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) reported a sharp drop in retail sales, highlighting weak consumer demand. Fiscal and trade uncertainties continue to weigh on the UK’s economic outlook...

Stocks featured:

Ferrexpo, Ithaca Energy and Ocado Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Chancellor Reeves has to pull off difficult balancing act in tomorrow's Spring Statement

Tue, 25 Mar 2025 14:40:44 GMT

The Bank of England (“BoE”) maintained its base rate at 4.5% last week, prioritising a gradual approach amid persistent inflation and wage pressures. Markets are now assigning a 70% probability of a May rate cut, with only two reductions anticipated this year, fewer than economists forecasted. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (“OECD”) has downgraded UK growth projections for 2025 and 2026, citing global trade risks. Business sentiment remains cautious, with 57% of firms expecting a recession. Manufacturing output has weakened sharply, and insolvencies are rising. Consumer confidence is improving, but investment hesitancy persists due to fiscal uncertainty. Options traders are increasingly betting on more aggressive BoE rate cuts. However, the BoE is facing challenges, balancing weak growth with persistent inflation risks, particularly in the face of global trade tensions...

Stocks featured:

Compass Group, Kingfisher and Prudential

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK economy contracts 0.1% in January, adding pressure ahead of Spring Statement

Tue, 18 Mar 2025 13:06:49 GMT

The UK economy showed signs of strain last week, with a cooling jobs market, weak consumer spending and rising corporate distress. Hiring slowed in February, with the smallest increase in starting salaries in four years, while permanent job appointments declined for the 29th month. Consumer spending growth lagged behind inflation, signalling cautious sentiment amid economic uncertainty. Business distress hit a post-pandemic high, with 11.2% of firms struggling due to high debt costs. The economy contracted 0.1% in January, driven by a manufacturing downturn, adding pressure on Chancellor Rachel Reeves ahead of the Spring Statement. Meanwhile, the government faces economic challenges as growth remains sluggish, casting doubt on its ambitious targets...

Stocks featured:

IAG, Melrose Industries and Tesco

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

British Chamber of Commerce cuts its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 0.9%

Tue, 11 Mar 2025 13:41:23 GMT

The UK economy faced continued headwinds last week, with slowing growth and persistent inflation concerns. The British Chamber of Commerce cut its 2025 gross domestic product (“GDP”) growth forecast to 0.9% from 1.3%, citing rising cost pressures. The Bank of England (“BoE”) monthly survey of UK Chief Financial Officers (“CFOs”) showed inflation expectations ticking up, with year-ahead consumer price index (“CPI”) at 3.1% from 3.0%, whilst most economists expect gradual cuts, bringing rates to 3.75% by year-end. Investor sentiment remained fragile, with UK takeovers by foreign firms plunging to £4.5 billion in Q4 2024, the lowest since the Covid-19 pandemic. However, domestic mergers and acquisitions surged to £8.6 billion from £1.9 billion in Q3, reflecting a shift towards local consolidation. In fiscal policy, Chancellor Rachel Reeves hinted at further public spending cuts to remain within fiscal constraints, as higher borrowing costs, increased future defence spending and downgraded growth forecasts limit fiscal flexibility. The Treasury is now preparing deep budgetary reductions, with several billion pounds in spending cuts under review ahead of the Spring Budget, with the Institute of Fiscal Studies saying that the chancellor could even be forced to raise taxes to plug any gap in finance...

Stocks featured:

Fresnillo, Melrose Industries and Rentokil Initial

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Lloyd's business barometer hits highest level since August 2024

Tue, 04 Mar 2025 11:11:27 GMT

The UK economy showed further signs of strain last week, with job postings hitting a four-year low in January. Wages continued to rise, reaching a record average of £40,846, adding to the Bank of England’s (“BoE”) inflationary concerns. Retailers warned of price increases due to higher national insurance and minimum wage hikes, particularly in the food sector. Meanwhile, a Reuters poll suggested the BoE could cut rates to 3.75% this year, with housing prices expected to rise as borrowing costs fall. The net-zero economy remained a bright spot, growing three times faster than the overall economy and contributing £83 billion in Gross Value Added (“GVA”). However, higher energy bills and taxation concerns are weighing on businesses, with two-thirds of hospitality firms set to cut jobs. Despite economic pressures, Lloyd's business barometer showed optimism, rebounding to its highest level since August 2024...

Stocks featured:

BAE Systems, Rolls-Royce and WPP

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK Chancellor Reeves under pressure to adjust fiscal policy

Tue, 25 Feb 2025 12:55:29 GMT

Last week, Bank of England ("BoE") Governor Andrew Bailey reaffirmed a cautious policy stance, highlighting the UK economy’s stagnation despite a slightly stronger fourth quarter Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”). Inflation surprised on the upside, rising to 3% in January - its highest in 10 months - driven by transport and food costs. Wage growth showed mixed signals, with official data indicating resilience but private surveys pointing to a slowdown. The job market weakened, with rising redundancies ahead of April’s National Insurance hike. Retail sales unexpectedly surged in January, but consumer confidence hit its lowest level since Labour took office. Corporate insolvencies reached a five-year-high, particularly in construction and retail. Meanwhile, manufacturing volumes continued to decline, although future expectations improved...

Stocks featured:

Centrica, Glencore and Lloyds Banking Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Strong demand for bonds as Britons buy the most gilts in 4 years

Tue, 18 Feb 2025 11:59:35 GMT

The UK economy faced mixed signals last week, with the Bank of England ("BoE") rate cuts struggling to filter through to borrowing costs, partly due to US market influence. Chief Economist Huw Pill warned against assuming inflation is conquered, advocating for a cautious policy approach. Meanwhile, the labour market has weakened significantly, with job vacancies falling at their fastest pace since 2020. Consumer confidence remained shaky, with fears of unemployment dampening spending. However, retail sales surprised positively, driven by health and beauty trends. Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) data showed unexpected growth of 0.1% in the fourth quarter, defying recession expectations, while housing activity stalled. Despite economic uncertainty, chief executives remained optimistic about business prospects...

Stocks featured:

British American Tobacco, Coca-Cola HBC and Unilever

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sterling strengthens for eight consecutive days, buoyed by improved EU and US relations

Tue, 11 Feb 2025 11:38:15 GMT

Last week the Bank of England (“BoE”) cut interest rates by 0.25%, with Governor Andrew Bailey urging caution over the split vote. Markets are still priced in for two more cuts this year, despite inflation forecasts remaining above target until 2027. The UK manufacturing sector contracted for the fourth month, with rising input costs squeezing small firms. Meanwhile, the services Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) edged down, with job cuts accelerating. Grocery inflation slowed, but supermarkets warned of rising costs due to tax and wage increases. Budget retailers struggled, highlighting pressures on low-income consumers...

Stocks featured:

BBGI Global Infrastructure, WAG Payment Solutions and Wizz Air

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bank of England faces tough policy decision

Tue, 04 Feb 2025 12:58:15 GMT

The Bank of England (“BoE”) faces a tough policy decision ahead of its 6th February meeting, as economic pressures mount. Business activity has slumped to its weakest since the Covid-19 pandemic, with firms cutting jobs and raising prices in response to tax hikes. Consumer spending remained fragile, and corporate profit warnings are at a post-dot-com high. Market expectations point to an 80% chance of a 0.25% rate cut to 4.50%, though inflation risks may limit further easing. Employers have tightened wage growth, and firms have depleted pandemic-era cash reserves. While shop price deflation continues, food prices have risen at their fastest rate in nine months. Morgan Stanley has slashed the UK’s growth outlook to 0.9% for 2025, citing weak business confidence. Despite a slight improvement in employer sentiment, overall business confidence has dropped to a 13-month low...

Stocks featured:

Airtel Africa, Glencore and St. James’s Place

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

DeepSeek caused Nvidia to experience largest single-day loss in Wall Street history

Tue, 28 Jan 2025 13:08:12 GMT

The UK economy is grappling with significant challenges as consumer confidence slumped in January, which was reflected in weak survey data from the British Retail Consortium. Industrial sentiment is at a two-year low, with output volumes falling at their steepest rate in four years, signalling more contraction ahead. Bloomberg warned of more frequent recessions due to weak growth potential, while stagnant wages since 2008 compounded economic pressures. The labour market is softening, with rising unemployment and declining vacancies, although wage growth remains high, adding to inflationary risks. Despite these headwinds, the Guardian reported that the UK remains the second most attractive country for investment, indicating long-term resilience. The Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) data shows a slight improvement in activity, led by the services sector, but new work continues to decline...

Stocks featured:

Associated British Foods, Games Workshop and Intermediate Capital Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK inflation falls to lowest level since early 2021

Tue, 21 Jan 2025 14:19:39 GMT

The UK economy faced mixed signals this week as inflation slowed unexpectedly in December, dropping to 2.5%, the lowest since early 2021, driven by lower energy and food costs. This has heightened expectations for Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cuts, with the market pricing in three reductions this year. However, core inflation remained stable, and economic growth is stagnating, raising concerns about stagflation. Business confidence plunged to a two-year low amid higher taxes and weak demand, while large firms plan hiring cuts and scaled-back investments following the Chancellor’s £25 billion social security charge hike. UK trade growth prospects remain subdued, with Boston Consulting Group projecting just 0.7% annual growth until 2033, hindered by Brexit and global supply chain shifts. Retailers, facing rising taxes and wages, are hiking prices, adding to consumer pressures...

Stocks featured:

Genus, JD Sports and Trustpilot Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rising gilt yields threaten UK government's fiscal headroom

Tue, 14 Jan 2025 14:16:40 GMT

The UK economy faced significant headwinds in 2024, marked by stagnation and subdued growth. December’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) data revealed the weakest private sector performance since October 2023, with composite PMI at 50.4 and a sharp decline in new orders. Rising payroll costs and declining demand drove the steepest fall in employment since January 2021, while business confidence fell to a two-year low following tax increases in the Autumn Budget. Although KPMG raised its 2025 Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) forecast to 1.7% due to expansionary fiscal policy, 2024 growth remained modest at 0.7%, with inflation averaging persistently high levels. Despite signals of gradual rate cuts from the Bank of England, bond market volatility added uncertainty to the outlook.

Stocks featured:

Clarksons, Greggs and Just Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK ministers tasked with finding 5% budget savings

Tue, 17 Dec 2024 14:57:44 GMT

The Bank of England ("BoE") is expected to maintain a cautious approach to rate cuts in the coming months, with a Reuters survey showing a 10% chance of one happening this week. Investors also predict three rate reductions in 2025, totalling 0.75%, so a more measured path than the European Central Bank's ("ECB") anticipated 1.5%. However, the BoE faces challenges from sticky inflation and elevated neutral rate estimates, with policymakers signalling a lower bound near 3.5%. Meanwhile, UK economic indicators painted a mixed picture last week. GDP contracted by 0.1% in October, job vacancies sharply declined and insolvencies are rising amid cost pressures. Consumer confidence remains weak despite slight improvements. Public inflation expectations have also edged higher, complicating the BoE's policy outlook. With businesses cautious about growth and labour shortages hindering productivity, the UK economy could close 2024 in contraction, highlighting the fragile state of the recovery.

Stocks featured:

Currys, Raspberry Pi and SThree

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Starmer rejects notion that Britain must choose between the US and EU

Tue, 10 Dec 2024 12:16:26 GMT

The UK economy is grappling with challenges as business confidence falters and retail sales dip. The Lloyds Bank business barometer fell to a five-month low of 41%, highlighting economic uncertainty, though firms remain optimistic about their trading prospects. Surveys from the Confederation of British Industry and the Institute of Directors indicate shrinking private sector activity and the lowest business confidence since April 2020. Elevated borrowing costs and higher employment taxes are straining businesses, dampening hiring and investment. Despite these difficulties, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (“OECD”) forecasts stronger growth by 2025, driven by public spending, though inflation is expected to stay above target.

Stocks featured:

Frasers Group, International Consolidated Airlines Group and Legal & General Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bessent's selection as Trump's Treasury Secretary reassures markets

Tue, 03 Dec 2024 14:13:40 GMT

Last week, key economic updates highlighted mixed signals for the UK. Bank of England (“BoE”) Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli expressed caution over wage growth trends, warning that a slowdown in wage disinflation might necessitate careful rate cut strategies. BoE official Swati Dhingra noted the UK is no longer an inflation outlier but stressed the difficulty of accurate inflation forecasting due to unreliable data. The Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) painted a sombre picture, with surveys showing weakening sentiment in the retail and services sectors. Job cuts loom as firms grapple with tax hikes, while higher wages ahead of the holidays offer a short-term boost in hiring for sectors such as retail and hospitality. Consumer confidence waned slightly after the budget, reflecting concerns over economic stability. Despite reassurances about the financial system's resilience, the BoE’s financial stability report flagged heightened global risks, including geopolitical tensions and government debt vulnerabilities. This backdrop underscores challenges ahead for growth and inflation.

Stocks featured:

JD Sports, Kingfisher and Melrose Industries

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Business Secretary warns of potential £20bn hit from a US-EU trade war

Tue, 26 Nov 2024 13:22:25 GMT

Last week, the Bank of England (“BoE”) emphasised the labour market's critical role in shaping monetary policy. Policymakers stressed the importance of early 2024 labour market data amidst uncertainty of the budget's potential impacts on wages and employment. Inflation rose in October, with headline Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) at 2.3% and core inflation at 3.3%, driven by higher energy costs. Meanwhile, rental inflation rebounded, and retail sales slumped amid budget concerns. Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) indicated the first contraction in output since 2023, as cost pressures and weak business optimism weighed. Consumer confidence dipped slightly in November, reflecting ongoing concerns about economic prospects despite resilient pay growth and employment levels.

Stocks featured:

CMC Markets, Games Workshop and Ithaca Energy

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Burberry shares rise 12.6% despite weak first-half results

Tue, 19 Nov 2024 12:14:16 GMT

Last week, UK economic data pointed to continued challenges and mixed signals. Third quarter gross domestic product (“GDP”) growth was disappointing, expanding by only 0.1% versus 0.2% expected, with September’s monthly GDP contracting at 0.1% as production weakened. The Bank of England’s (“BoE”) Chief Economist Huw Pill warned that global shocks could derail the UK’s disinflation process. Inflation remained sticky, particularly in services, and wage growth remained robust, complicating inflation targets. Grocery inflation edged higher, reflecting pressure on household finances, while public sector pay rises are now expected to outpace private sector pay. Furthermore, business confidence hit a 12-month low, driven by concerns over manufacturing and services outlooks, highlighting the significant economic headwinds the UK is facing.

Stocks featured:

Burberry Group, John Wood Group and Keller Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US Election: S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit record highs

Tue, 12 Nov 2024 14:46:25 GMT

Due to geopolitical uncertainties and a cautious market response to changes in fiscal policy, UK economic indicators were mixed. Growth slowed in the services sector, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMI”) hitting 52.0, reflecting hesitation from the Autumn Budget and geopolitical influences. Inflation data showed some improvement, especially in goods prices, providing a case for the Bank of England (“BoE”) to consider reducing policy restrictions. Meanwhile, the Monetary Policy Committee (“MPC”) voted towards a BoE rate cut to 4.75% to support confidence. The BoE downplayed the impact of an expansionary fiscal policy, but hinted that budget decisions might lengthen the rate cycle.

Stocks featured:

John Wood Group, TP ICAP Group and Wizz Air

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What impact did Labour's first budget have on markets?

Tue, 05 Nov 2024 13:50:05 GMT

The UK economy showed mixed signals last week, with key developments impacting market expectations. The budget delivered by Rachel Reeves, which included a £70 billion spending boost, led to predictions of a shallower rate-cutting cycle by the Bank of England (“BoE”). A Reuters poll indicated economists largely expect a cautious BoE approach, with rates potentially reaching 3.5% by the end of 2025. Job vacancies in London continued to lag, sitting 25% below pre-pandemic levels, partly due to the rise in hybrid work and lower demand for retail roles. Shop prices declined by 0.8% year-on-year, hinting that inflation could stay below the BoE's 2% target. Meanwhile, full-time pay rose 6.9% annually, with the strongest gains in hospitality and customer service roles. The UK manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) slipped to a contractionary 49.9, reflecting slower growth and stretched supply chains.

Labour’s first budget in fourteen years focused on increasing public spending to address deficiencies in Britain’s public services, with measures like a £40 billion tax rise, mainly targeting businesses through increased employer national insurance contributions. Despite International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) backing for the Labour government's tax-based deficit reduction approach, the budget sparked market concerns, with gilts and sterling selling off. The Office for Budget Responsibility (“OBR”) projected little change in long-term growth, at around 1.5%. Moody’s also warned that frequent adjustments to the UK's fiscal rules could weaken policy credibility, highlighting limited fiscal buffers for future shocks. With state spending now at 44% of gross domestic product (“GDP”), Reeves faces pressure to balance economic stability and potential future tax hikes if growth remains stagnant...

Stocks featured:

Close Brothers Group, Kainos Group and Molten Ventures

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK Economy shows mixed signals amidst budget uncertainties

Tue, 29 Oct 2024 13:24:34 GMT

The construction and infrastructure services company Morgan Sindall Group saw a share price rise of 14.91% last week following a strong trading update. The update highlighted better-than-anticipated performance, prompting analysts to increase earnings per share (“EPS”) forecasts for 2024 and 2025 by 7%. The company’s Fit Out division showed robust growth, with an order book worth £1.3 billion, up 15% from the end of 2023. Additionally, the Partnership Housing division is expected to deliver slightly higher profits. Analysts noted Morgan Sindall’s strong management track record and lower one-off costs compared to peers, emphasising the company’s good value proposition.

Bloomsbury Publishing, publisher of books and reference databases, saw its shares jump 12.54% last week after the company reported stronger-than-expected trading performance for fiscal 2025. The publisher, known for the Harry Potter series, announced that profit attributable to owners rose to £16.6 million in the first half of fiscal 2025, up from £11.2 million a year earlier, with revenue increasing to £179.8 million from £136.7 million. EPS improved significantly, and the board proposed an increased interim dividend. Bloomsbury expects full-year results to exceed the market consensus of £319.3 million in revenue and £37.5 million in profit, boosting investor confidence...

Stocks featured:

Morgan Sindall Group, Bloomsbury Publishing and Close Brothers Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK inflation drops below 2% for first time since 2021

Tue, 22 Oct 2024 13:12:21 GMT

Last week's UK economic data painted a mixed picture ahead of the Bank of England's (“BoE”) November policy meeting. Inflation has dropped below the 2% target for the first time since 2021, reaching 1.7%, driven by lower energy costs and eased supply chain pressures. Meanwhile, a notable minimum wage hike has underpinned pay growth for low-wage workers, despite broader wage growth moderation. As the labour market is easing, economists increasingly expect a BoE interest rate cut, with markets pricing in a 90% chance of two 0.25% reductions by year-end. Retail sales defied expectations, rising 0.3% in September, driven by strong demand in electronics. While the BoE previously signalled potential rate cuts contingent on inflation trends, the cooling data has solidified expectations of a dovish policy shift in the coming weeks.

The upcoming 30th October UK budget is shaping up to be a pivotal moment, as Rachel Reeves navigates a challenging fiscal landscape with a £22 billion fiscal deficit. To address this deficit, proposals include raising employer national insurance contributions and increasing capital gains taxes on share sales, which could generate significant revenue. However, the proposals have faced pushback from business leaders and investors, with concerns over potential job losses and investment impacts being raised. The recent inflation decline below 2% has reinforced expectations for BoE rate cuts, potentially easing pressure on fiscal policy but also reducing tax revenue from inflation-related income. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund warned the UK of potential market backlash if debt stabilisation efforts fell short, adding urgency to Reeves’ fiscal plans...

Stocks featured:

Future, St. James's Place and XPS Pensions Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Budget dominates market conversations this week on how to plug the £22b fiscal shortfall

Tue, 15 Oct 2024 15:35:23 GMT

The UK economy returned to growth, expanding by 0.2% after two months of stagnation, according to reports from The Times, Reuters and Bloomberg. This growth was driven by strong rebounds in manufacturing and construction, despite weaker-than-expected growth in the services sector. Retail sales showed resilience, rising 2% in September, the fastest in six months, as retailers geared up for the Christmas season. However, concerns remain as the British Chambers of Commerce reported declining business confidence, driven by fears of tax hikes in the Labour government's upcoming autumn budget and geopolitical uncertainties. Meanwhile, Kantar data highlighted renewed pressure on consumer budgets, while prices fell for household and pet products. The economic outlook remains mixed as businesses and consumers navigate these challenges.

Stocks featured:

Carnival Group, Greencore Group and Senior Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Contrasting views on further rate cuts emitting from Bank of England

Tue, 08 Oct 2024 14:01:53 GMT

Lloyds' Business Barometer indicated a dip in UK business confidence in September, the lowest level in three months. The data suggests businesses are cautious about the broader economic outlook but still expect strong trading, highlighting concerns over inflation, investment, and potential fiscal policy changes ahead of the upcoming budget. Bank of England ("BoE") Chief Economist, Huw Pill, struck a cautious tone on the rate outlook, warning against cutting interest rates too quickly or too far. He stressed the need for a gradual withdrawal of monetary policy restriction, citing concerns over wage data and services price inflation. In contrast, Governor Andrew Bailey suggested that the BoE could cut rates more aggressively if inflation data continues to improve, leading economists to predict rate cuts at every meeting until May 2025....

Stocks featured:

BAE Systems, BP and JD Sports Fashion

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The UK economy is treading a cautious path whilst the Hang Seng surges

Tue, 01 Oct 2024 14:25:32 GMT

Last week saw the Bank of England (“BoE”) maintain a cautious tone on the future trajectory of interest rates. Governor Andrew Bailey noted that while inflation has made significant progress toward the BoE’s 2% target, a gradual approach to interest rate cuts is necessary to ensure sustainable price stability. His comments come after the BoE decided to keep rates unchanged last week, following a 0.25% cut in August. Expectations are now centred around a neutral rate of 3% to 3.5%, with Bailey indicating that near-zero rates are unlikely to reoccur barring a significant economic downturn.

Stocks featured:

Card Factory, Accesso Technology Group and Halma

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Economists predict BoE base rate could fall to as low as 3% next year

Tue, 24 Sep 2024 14:13:12 GMT

The Bank of England ("BoE") has left policy unchanged in the short term. Still, it may accelerate rate cuts in the final quarter of 2024 with weakening economic momentum, cracks in the labour market, and softening manufacturing outputs signalling a need for further easing. However, persistent inflationary pressures, especially in core and services prices, keep policymakers cautious. Market expectations of rate cuts are rising, with economists predicting the bank rate could fall as low as 3% next year. BoE's Catherine Mann remains cautious on a rapid rate cut cycle though, advocating for maintaining restrictive policy to curb inflationary behaviour. Meanwhile, fiscal concerns grow as the BoE's quantitative tightening programme will cost the UK Treasury billions. Despite these challenges, hiring across more sectors has picked up, reflecting some resilience in the economy...

Stocks featured:

Bytes Technology Group, Close Brothers Group and Wizz Air

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK housing market is showing signs of recovery and the Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates at 5.00%

Tue, 17 Sep 2024 15:36:04 GMT

The Bank of England (“BoE”) is texpected to hold interest rates at 5.00%his week, with economists forecasting further rate cuts in its November and December meeting, potentially bringing the year-end rate to 4.50%. Attention is also on the BoE’s quantitative tightening plans, as there are growing calls to increase the sale of short-dated gilts to boost market liquidity. Investors are watching whether the BoE will accelerate bond runoff next year, in response to a sharp rise in maturing bonds.

Stocks featured:

Kier Group, Renishaw and Trainline

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Boost for UK economy as August retail sales rise by 1%

Tue, 10 Sep 2024 14:28:40 GMT

Recent data from Reed Recruitment shows UK wage growth is no longer declining and is now stabilising, which may pose a challenge to the Bank of England (“BoE”) and Prime Minister Keir Starmer. As sectors like construction and hospitality face skill shortages, rising wages could force a rethink on easing policies. Despite this, analysts remain optimistic about the economic outlook, citing strong balance sheets, a rebound in business investment and stabilising inflation. A BoE survey also indicated that companies expect price increases to slow, even as wage growth holds steady at 4.1%, which has been unchanged since July. Business uncertainty has decreased post-election, and investors are anticipating a potential BoE interest rate cut in November, though further cuts may not come soon...

Stocks featured:

Ashtead Technology, Genus and Kainos Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK housing market is showing signs of recovery and the UK government faces a difficult task of balancing the budget.

Wed, 04 Sep 2024 10:17:31 GMT

Summary:

The UK experienced a combination of positive and negative economic indicators. The government faces the difficult task of balancing the budget, which could lead to tax increases and spending cuts. Various factors, including financial data, political developments, and corporate earnings impacted global markets. US equities experienced a mixed performance, while oil prices fluctuated. The UK housing market is showing signs of recovery, with increased listings, buyer demand and mortgage approvals...

Stocks featured:

Bunzl, EasyJet and JD Sports

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sterling reaches 12-month high versus the US dollar

Tue, 27 Aug 2024 12:21:09 GMT

Summary:

Last week UK stocks remained relatively flat, with the FTSE 100 index closing 0.3% lower. Sterling rose above $1.32, representing its highest level in over a year against the dollar. This increase was driven by rising expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve ("Fed") next month. However, a stronger sterling added pressure to the FTSE 100, as many companies within the index generate a significant portion of their revenue globally...

Stocks featured:

JD Sports Fashion, Melrose Industries and Rightmove

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK Economy is projecting mixed signals

Tue, 20 Aug 2024 12:53:27 GMT

The UK economic landscape is currently marked by mixed signals, particularly regarding inflation and labour market dynamics. The Bank of England's (“BoE”) more hawkish member, Catherine Mann, remains sceptical about the disinflation process, highlighting persistent wage pressures that could take years to subside. Despite recent inflation data showing a slight dip, with July's rate coming in at 2.2%, lower than expected, and a softening in services prices, Mann's concerns echo broader caution within the BoE. Market expectations have echoed the recent cooling of wage growth and inflation, which now fully price in two BoE rate cuts by year-end, although the timing of these cuts remains debated.

Stocks featured:

Just Group, Playtech and Crest Nicholson

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK economy shows resilience as the US jobs data sends a warning about a possible downturn

Tue, 13 Aug 2024 13:53:03 GMT

Last week saw various economic developments, including the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (“NIESR”) publishing its forecast, predicting a slower interest rate cut cycle by the Bank of England than the market expects. NIESR anticipates that economic recovery will accelerate, prompting the BoE to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period. The Bank of England's interest rate is expected to decrease gradually, reaching 4.6% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, before bottoming out at 3.1% in 2028. Additionally, economists are divided on the BoE's next rate cut, with mixed views on the timing and size of potential easing, though domestic inflationary pressures seem to be receding.

Stocks featured:

Beazley, Hikma Pharmaceuticals and Spirax Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bank of England cuts rates for the first time in four years

Tue, 06 Aug 2024 11:58:13 GMT

The Bank of England ("BoE") recently made its first rate cut in over four years, stirring cautious optimism about the UK's economic future. Although BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill acknowledged an improved outlook, he noted the growth rate remains modest at around 1% annually from 2024 to 2026. The narrow 5-4 vote for the rate cut underscores persistent inflation risks. Surveys show a slight decline in firms' expectations for wage growth and inflation. The BoE's survey revealed expected wage growth fell to 4.1% and the one-year-ahead consumer price index dropped to 2.5%. Similarly, the Citi/YouGov survey showed stability in one-year inflation outlooks and a minor rise in long-term expectations, reflecting the BoE's increased confidence in disinflation.

Stocks featured:

Melrose Industries, Haleon and Entain

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK Chancellor is preparing for a challenging Autumn Budget

Tue, 30 Jul 2024 11:39:54 GMT

A Reuters poll showed most economists are expecting a Bank of England ("BoE") interest rate cut, with mixed UK data causing some to push expectations from August to September. The absence of comments from BoE Governor, Andrew Bailey, due to the election, has deprived the market of crucial signals. Despite a two-month high in the UK's purchasing managers index ("PMI"), driven by new business growth, uncertainty remains over the BoE's decision, with market odds of a rate cut at approximately 40%. Former BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Sushil Wadhwani suggested Labour should allow the BoE to set its inflation target to boost credibility and reduce borrowing costs. Ernst & Young has upgraded its UK economic outlook, predicting 1.1% gross domestic product ("GDP") growth in 2024 and stable inflation near the BoE's 2% target. However, the International Monetary Fund warned that higher growth is needed to avoid a fiscal gap.

Stocks featured:

NatWest, Compass Group and Fresnillo

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Global IT outage disrupts businesses and services worldwide

Tue, 23 Jul 2024 15:22:24 GMT

On Friday, a global IT outage linked to issues with a CrowdStrike cybersecurity update affecting Microsoft software disrupted businesses and services worldwide. In the UK, train companies, major airlines, airports and GP surgeries experienced significant disruptions, with Edinburgh and Birmingham airports particularly affected. Financial sectors were hit as major oil and gas trading desks in London and Singapore faced outages, and the London Stock Exchange Group's Workspace platform experienced service interruptions. Even media outlets were impacted, with Sky News temporarily going “off-air”...

Stocks featured:

Burberry, Dunelm Group and Ocado Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Service sector bolsters strongest GDP growth since January

Tue, 16 Jul 2024 14:17:42 GMT

The latest UK gross domestic product (“GDP”) estimate showed a 0.4% expansion in May, surpassing expectations due to growth in industrial production, services and construction. Over the past three months, GDP grew by 0.9%, the strongest since January 2022, with services contributing significantly. This aligns with purchasing managers index data, highlighting the services sector's role in the economic recovery...

Stocks featured:

Jet2, Liontrust Asset Management and Hunting

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Labour's landslide brings political and economic stability

Tue, 09 Jul 2024 13:02:56 GMT

Recent updates indicate an optimistic shift in the UK economy. KPMG has revised its gross domestic product growth forecast for 2024 from 0.3% to 0.5% and projects 0.9% growth for 2025. This is supported by anticipated Bank of England (“BoE”) rate cuts, potentially reducing the bank rate to 3% next year. This economic boost is further aided by political certainty due to expected fiscal policy changes under a Labour government...

Stocks featured:

Ibstock, JD Sports Fashion and Ocado

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK Economy is showing mixed signals, the US market wobbles and first-time homeowners experience a mortgage squeeze

Tue, 02 Jul 2024 14:00:57 GMT

Last week, the UK's economic landscape presented a nuanced view. The Office for National Statistics revised first quarter gross domestic product ("GDP") growth up to 0.7%. Growth was driven by robust expansions in services and production, despite the construction sector experiencing a decline. Despite a 0.7% positive uptick in real household disposable income, April's GDP showed no growth for the month. The June Purchasing Managers Index fell to a seven-month low, indicating a quarterly growth rate of just 0.1%, suggesting cautious economic momentum.

Stocks featured:

DS Smith, Currys and Moonpig Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bank of England's quantitative tightening policy came under scrutiny

Tue, 25 Jun 2024 14:31:15 GMT

UK inflation continued to ease in May, with the headline rate at 2.0% year-on-year, down from 2.3% in the 12 months to April, marking the lowest rate since July 2021. Core inflation was 3.5%, while services prices remained high at 5.7%. The largest downward pressure came from food prices, while motor fuels and transport costs drove inflation up. The Bank of England (“BOE”) held interest rates at 5.25%, emphasising the need for restrictive monetary policy to control inflation. Market expectations for an August rate cut increased to more than a 50% chance after the news, up from 30%. By year-end, 0.50% of rate cuts are now priced in. Economists are divided on whether the BOE will reduce rates in August or later, with some expecting a delayed cut followed by faster easing. Tight fiscal policy under a new government could lead to a more rapid easing cycle next year. The biggest risk to early BOE easing is a stronger economy with rising price pressures and wages. The BOE forecasts headline inflation to rise above target from the autumn and will use updated macroeconomic projections at its next meeting...

Stocks featured:

Games Workshop, Ocado Group and Phoenix Holdings Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bank of England holds rates and wages outpace inflation

Tue, 18 Jun 2024 15:19:12 GMT

UK unemployment grew and wage growth stabilised last week after UK labour market data presented a mixed economic outlook. The May unemployment claimant count increased by 50,400, increasing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. Payrolled workers dropped by 3,000, and vacancies declined by 12,000 to 904,000. Despite these signs of a cooling job market, average weekly earnings remained strong at 5.9%, partly due to an April minimum wage increase. This wage growth complicates the Bank of England's ("BOE") efforts to balance economic cooling with inflation control.

Stocks featured:

Halma, Molten Ventures and FirstGroup

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

British Chamber of Commerce predicts UK Bank Rate to stand at 4.75% by the end of 2024

Tue, 11 Jun 2024 15:02:57 GMT

UK inflation expectations continue to ease with the Citi/YouGov inflation tracker for May showing a decline to 3.1%, ahead of expectations and the lowest since July 2021. The Bank of England’s ("BOE") Decision Maker Panel survey indicated steady short-term inflation expectations but noted a potential stall in the disinflationary process. Encouragingly, wage growth expectations fell, which could reduce inflationary pressures. The British Chamber of Commerce revised growth forecasts upward, but anticipates inflation to remain above the BOE's target in the medium term. The British Chamber of Commerce also projects modest BOE rate cuts with the key Bank Rate being at 4.75% by the end of 2024. Meanwhile, Purchasing Managers Index data showed the services sector continues to support economic expansion, and the manufacturing sector expanded at its quickest pace in over two years...

Stocks featured:

B&M European Value Retail, Hollywood Bowl Group and Ninety One

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK inflation surprise: lower but sticky, Bank of England holds steady

Tue, 04 Jun 2024 15:09:40 GMT

The Bank of England's ("BOE") outgoing Deputy Governor, Ben Broadbent, defended the bank’s policy-making process against accusations of groupthink, highlighting robust discussions at meetings. While acknowledging progress on inflation, Broadbent hinted at possible rate cuts ahead of the BOE's next meeting in the coming months. Meanwhile, there has been positive news on the consumer front; the British Retail Consortium reports UK shop price inflation has returned to normal levels, with May seeing the lowest annual shop prices since late 2021. This decline, likely due to subdued consumer demand, coincides with the fastest growth in UK retail sales since December 2022, as reported by the Confederation of British Industry Distributive Trade Survey, suggesting rising consumer confidence.

Stocks featured:

Auto Trader, Pets at Home Group and Wizz Air Holdings

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hopes of a Bank of England rate cut fades as UK Inflation Surprises and US markets power on

Wed, 29 May 2024 09:08:14 GMT

UK inflation eased sharply in April to 2.3% year-on-year, surpassing market consensus and Bank of England (“BOE”) forecasts of 2.1%, marking the lowest rate since summer 2021. While gas and electricity prices declined, motor fuel prices increased, slightly offsetting the downward pressure. However, core inflation remained sticky, recording a 3.9% figure against a consensus of 3.6%. The key services measure, closely monitored by the BOE for second-round effects, eased slightly to 5.9% from 6.0%, still above the 5.5% consensus.

Stocks featured:

National Grid, RS Group and Marks and Spencer

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sterling Slump Boosts Exports: Can the UK Stock Market Keep Surging?

Tue, 21 May 2024 14:13:44 GMT

There is a continued expectation that the Bank of England ("BOE") will be cautious in lowering interest rates, unlike during past rate-cutting cycles. Bloomberg and Reuters reported concerns about inflation reaccelerating if rates are lowered too quickly due to past downturns such as those in 1998, 2001 and 2008. Markets are currently pricing in the first interest rate cut in August of 0.25%, followed by another potential cut in November.

Stocks featured:

BT Group, Experian and Sage Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

John Wood Group shares surge 28.8% on takeover approach

Tue, 14 May 2024 13:51:13 GMT

Last week, the Bank of England ("BOE") decided to maintain interest rates at 5.25%. However, two out of nine officials from the Monetary Policy Committee ("MPC") voted in favour of an interest rate cut, demonstrating a more dovish view and increasing market expectations for a rate cut in June. This shift was predominantly driven by macroeconomic forecasts indicating inflation heading back towards its 2% target shortly. The market response was relatively subdued as investors awaited incoming economic data, with two sets of inflation and labour market updates scheduled before the BOE's June interest rate decision. Notably the BOE Governor, Andrew Bailey, also hinted at the possibility of deeper interest rate cuts, highlighting the institution’s commitment to addressing economic concerns...

Stocks featured:

Boohoo Group, IWG and John Wood Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A Tale of Two Cities: Contrasting Market Signals in the UK and the US

Wed, 08 May 2024 10:10:10 GMT

In anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s (“Fed”) upcoming policy decision, the FTSE 100 and gilt yields saw modest increases. This decision is expected to influence the Bank of England's (“BOE”) interest rate strategy. Currently, UK markets have dialled back interest rate expectations, predicting only 0.38% in cuts this year, with the first adjustment anticipated in the fourth quarter. This cautious stance comes despite the slowest rise in UK shop prices since December 2021, as reported by the British Retail Consortium. This reflects a notable deceleration in non-food price inflation and easing food costs.

Stocks featured:

Standard Chartered, Smurfit Kappa Group and Melrose Industries

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

London's global financial hub status under threat

Tue, 30 Apr 2024 12:52:23 GMT

Last week saw economists divided over the timing of the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Bank of England (“BOE”). A Reuters poll revealed a division between forecasts for a June cut and a delay until the third quarter. Despite inflation easing to 3.2% year-on-year in March, slightly above the expected 3.1%, persistent service prices and wage growth may delay the BOE’s monetary easing. The International Monetary Fund’s recent downward revision of the UK's growth outlook further complicates the BOE's decision-making, emphasising the need for a cautious approach amid prolonged weak growth...

Stocks featured:

Anglo American, Barclays and NatWest Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Bank of England is poised for potential interest rate cuts ahead of the Federal Reserve

Tue, 23 Apr 2024 16:34:30 GMT

As inflation dynamics diverge between the UK and the US, the Bank of England (“BOE”) is poised for potential interest rate cuts ahead of the Federal Reserve. Bloomberg reports that the momentum of lowering inflation in the UK, with further easing expected, bolsters the case for a summer rate cut. Despite warnings from BOE Monetary Policy Committee members Jonathan Haskel, Catherine Mann and Megan Greene about the likelihood of rate cuts, market dynamics suggest a shift in monetary policy could occur sooner due to the UK's distinct economic conditions.

Stocks featured:

Mondi, Dr Martens and Dunlem

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bank of England uses 'out-of-date' software to make economic forecasts

Tue, 16 Apr 2024 09:59:20 GMT

The former Chair of the US Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, has offered a candid assessment of the Bank of England's ("BOE") forecasting processes, highlighting shortcomings such as outdated modelling software and staff carrying out manual functions which could be automated. While providing recommendations for improvement, Bernanke stopped short of advocating major departures from the BOE's traditional approach to monetary policy, leaving such reforms for future consideration. As discussions within the central bank continue, the review marks a pivotal moment for reassessing the UK's monetary policy framework...

Stocks featured:

Centrica, Fresnillo and Rio Tinto

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bank of England suggests moderation in wage and inflation forecasts

Tue, 09 Apr 2024 15:36:40 GMT

Amidst evolving economic indicators and shifting market sentiments, the Bank of England's (“BOE”) latest Decision Maker Panel survey indicates a moderation in both inflation and wage forecasts. The survey highlights a decline in year-ahead own price inflation to 4.1% in the three months to March, down from 4.3% in February, suggesting a slight easing in price pressures. Similarly, one-year ahead Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) declined to 3.2% from 3.3%, while three-year ahead CPI stood at 2.7% versus the previous 2.8%, indicating a tempered inflation outlook. Moreover, the survey reports a year-ahead wage growth of 4.9% on a three-month moving average basis, coupled with an annual wage growth of 6.4% in March, reflecting a gradual slowdown in wage growth momentum.

While the UK economy continues its recovery trajectory, the pace appears to have eased slightly, particularly within the services sector. The final services sector Purchasing Managers' Index (“PMI”) for March came in at 53.1, slightly below the estimate of 53.4, indicating a modest upturn in activity. However, this moderation leaves the composite reading at 52.8, below February's nine-month high...

Stocks featured:

Fresnillo, Ocado and Future

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A surge in cash allocations towards UK stocks

Tue, 02 Apr 2024 13:44:18 GMT

Amidst recent economic data demonstrating a challenging landscape, the UK economy finds itself navigating through uncertain waters. Official figures released by Reuters last week confirmed that the UK economy slipped into a shallow recession last year, with gross domestic product ("GDP") contracting by 0.1% in the second quarter last year and 0.3% in the final quarter of 2023. Although unchanged from preliminary estimates, these numbers underscore the fragile state of the economy.

The weak starting point for GDP growth in 2024 suggests that the pace of recovery may be modest, with forecasts indicating growth limited to less than 1% for the calendar year. Structural headwinds are expected to constrain growth, prompting concerns that prolonged high-interest rates could exacerbate risks to the economy...

Stocks featured:

Big Technologies, James Halstead and YouGov

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Interest rates maintained at 5.25% signalling caution

Tue, 26 Mar 2024 14:57:31 GMT

The Bank of England (“BOE”) last week announced its decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 5.25%, signalling a cautious approach amidst evolving economic conditions. However, recent developments in the UK's economic landscape have sparked speculation about potential shifts in monetary policy. With headline inflation easing to 3.4% in February, slightly below the BOE's forecast, attention turns to the central bank's stance on interest rate cuts.

Stocks featured:

Next, Judges Scientific and Trustpilot Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The UK housing market exhibits signs of stabilising and cautious optimism

Tue, 19 Mar 2024 11:41:35 GMT

As the financial world braces for the Bank of England's (“BOE”) meeting on 21st March, analysts are closely scrutinising signals of potential policy shifts. Despite nearing the 2% inflation target, the consensus among experts, as indicated by Reuters polling, suggests that the BOE is likely to maintain a status quo on interest rates for the time being. However, a dovish tilt is emerging, with expectations leaning towards a cautious approach to rate adjustments. This sentiment reflects the BOE's desire for more concrete evidence of inflation control before contemplating any significant monetary policy changes.

Stocks featured:

Halma, 4Imprint Group and Persimmon

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Battle lines are drawn on tax and public services

Tue, 12 Mar 2024 14:42:00 GMT

UK Chancellor Jeremy Hunt unveiled a 2% reduction in the main rate of National Insurance contributions in the Spring Budget, in line with expectations. These adjustments were supported by upgraded forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility, with revised gross domestic product projections of 0.8% in 2024 and 1.9% in 2025. However, an article from Bloomberg noted concerns as fiscal headroom dropped to £8.9 billion from £13 billion in the November forecast, the second lowest level on record.

Stocks featured:

Legal & General, Kier Group and Greggs

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jeremy Hunt revealed plans to prioritise "smart tax cuts" in the upcoming Budget

Tue, 05 Mar 2024 15:09:22 GMT

Bank of England (“BOE”) Deputy Governor, Sir Dave Ramsden asserted this week that inflation pressures in the UK remain too high, emphasising the need for more evidence of easing before contemplating a cut in interest rates. Additionally, Ramsden suggested the possibility of the BOE selling all UK government bonds purchased under Quantitative Easing (“QE”) to be more prepared for future crises. The move aims to safeguard public finances, as the Treasury underwrites losses incurred on these asset sales. Ramsden clarified that other liquidity tools would replace QE.

Stocks featured:

Howden Joinery, Ocado and Reckitt Benckiser Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Exclusive: YO1 Radio Interview with Alan Kinnaird

Thu, 29 Feb 2024 14:45:23 GMT

Dale Bartleson of YO1 Radio in York sits down and chats with Alan Kinnaird of Walker Crips Investment Management.

📞 Get in touch

To find out more about the full range of services Walker Crips Investment Management has to offer please click here to request a call back from Alan Kinnaird, Chartered FCSI, or another member of the team based in our York office.

To find out more about YO1 Radio, please click here.

Capital at risk. Professional advice should be sought before engaging in investment activity. Walker Crips Investment Management Limited and Walker Crips Financial Planning Limited are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority.

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Surge in UK real wages seen as potential driver for economic recovery

Tue, 27 Feb 2024 14:33:59 GMT

Recent statements from Bank of England ("BOE") officials indicate a reluctance to ease their inflation-fighting stance, despite confirming a technical recession late last year. Chief economist, Huw Pill, emphasised the need for several more months of data before being convinced that inflation would fall and remain at the BOE’s 2% target. Monetary Policy Committee members, Megan Greene and Catherine Mann, acknowledged some easing in wage pressures but highlighted the ongoing tightness in the labour market. Governor Andrew Bailey, steering focus toward positive forward-looking data, such as purchasing managers’ indexes and sentiment indicators, remains cautious about easing. Former BOE chief economist, Andy Haldane, once hawkish, now warns of deepening the UK recession if interest rate cuts are not implemented soon...

Stocks featured:

Rio Tinto, HSBC Holdings and Mondi

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Economists forecast inflation falling below Bank of England's 2% target by April

Tue, 20 Feb 2024 15:18:13 GMT

UK inflation data released last week provided a surprise as headline inflation remained steady at 4% year-on-year, defying expectations for a slight increase. The core Consumer Price Index ("CPI") was also below forecast at 5.1%. Monthly CPI figures declined 0.6%, contrasting with the anticipated 0.3% drop. Despite services inflation persisting at 6.5%, slightly below projections, economists are optimistic, forecasting a dip in inflation to 3.4% in February and a return below the Bank of England's ("BOE") 2% target by April...

Stocks featured:

RELX, Centrica and NatWest Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK witnesses the strongest services sector performance since May 2023

Wed, 14 Feb 2024 09:52:26 GMT

In a week of diverse developments, the Bank of England ("BOE") conveyed a nuanced stance on interest rates. Deputy Chief Breeden's speech on Wednesday suggested waning concerns about the necessity of future rate hikes as inflationary pressures ease. This sentiment resonated with the BOE's recent policy statement, indicating a potential review of the duration at current rate levels. Despite acknowledging receding inflation pressures, Breeden remained cautiously optimistic, emphasising the need for sustained evidence of inflation returning to target levels.…

Stocks featured:

Vodafone, BP Plc and Unilever

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Monetary Policy Committee split three ways over interest rate change

Tue, 06 Feb 2024 14:42:41 GMT

Last week the Bank of England (“BOE”) voted to keep interest rates steady at 5.25%. The decision represented a rare divergence of opinion with the Monetary Policy Committee split three ways, for the first time since the 2008 financial crisis. Two committee members advocated for a 0.25% interest rate hike, another voted for a 0.25% interest rate cut, while the remaining six members opted for the status quo. The BOE affirmed the need for a restrictive monetary policy to address inflationary pressures, yet hinted at a forthcoming review on the duration of the current interest rate levels.…

Stocks featured:

Pets at Home, GlaxoSmithKline and Diageo

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bank of England risks undermining own inflation policy

Tue, 30 Jan 2024 14:41:29 GMT

Last week, Bloomberg published an article detailing that the Bank of England (“BOE”) should revise its inflation tightening bias or risk undermining the credibility of its own policy. Despite unchanged guidance since August, inflation has eased faster than expected, wage growth has softened and the economy has slowed. A delicate balancing act lies ahead for the BOE as it navigates through the Spring Budget and an impending general election later this year. With new economic forecasts expected in February, the BOE might recalibrate its policy communication to align with the evolving economic landscape…

Stocks featured:

EasyJet, Associated British Food and Crest Nicholson Holdings

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK CEOs most optimistic about growth in G7 nations

Wed, 24 Jan 2024 10:31:23 GMT

Last week, UK inflation figures surprised on the upside, with the headline Consumer Price Index showing 4%, surpassing the consensus estimate of 3.8%. Core inflation also exceeded expectations at 5.1%, deviating from the forecasted 4.9%. Despite the increase, economists caution against overinterpreting this data, as inflation is projected to reach the Bank of England's (“BOE”) 2% target by the spring. Nevertheless, this data counters market complacency, suggesting the BOE might delay the pivot towards interest rate cuts until later in the year. The market is now largely pricing in the first interest rate cut in May, with the expectation of overall rate cuts in 2024 decreasing from 1.25% to 1.10%...

Stocks featured:

Dunelm Group, Flutter Entertainment and Ocado

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A delicate balance between stagnation and contraction

Tue, 16 Jan 2024 13:19:48 GMT

According to the latest figures announced by the Office of National Statistics last week, the UK economy grew by 0.3% in November 2023, surpassing the expected 0.2% expansion by economists polled recently by Reuters, after contracting by 0.3% in the previous month. The services sector, buoyed by robust performances in retail, car leasing and computer games, played a pivotal role in this recovery. Strong Black Friday sales and a reduction in industrial action also contributed, alongside reduced fears of a technical recession. However, Bloomberg cautioned that the 0.3% rebound in November may not be sufficient to dispel concerns of a recession, highlighting the delicate balance between stagnation and contraction....

Stocks featured:

Greggs, Marks & Spencer and Whitbread

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Looming general election adds layer of uncertainty for the UK economy in 2024

Tue, 09 Jan 2024 11:41:27 GMT

The first week of the new year unveiled a mixed outlook for the UK economy as surveys of economists published in the Financial Times and The Times portrayed a consensus on sluggish growth in 2024, teetering on the edge of a technical recession. Analysts anticipate gross domestic product growth between 0% and 1%, with a looming general election adding a layer of uncertainty. The Bank of England (“BOE”), while expected to cut interest rates, is likely to tread cautiously as the battle against inflation continues. According to The Times survey, economists foresee at least two rate cuts in 2024. Concerns about business investment persist with hopes resting on pre-election giveaways and an increase in real disposable income...

Stocks featured:

Next, JD Sports and Clarkson

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK house prices fall 1.9% in December

Tue, 19 Dec 2023 13:54:03 GMT

Last week saw the Bank of England ("BOE") stand firm on its key rate, leaving interest rates unchanged at 5.25% and dismissing talks of imminent rate cuts, a day after the Federal Reserve signalled its intention to cut rates in 2024. BOE Governor Andrew Bailey emphasised the ongoing fight against inflation, challenging investors who had increasingly bet on rate cuts. Despite BOE warnings, traders remained unfazed, forecasting interest rates of 4% by the end of the next year, as reported by The Times.

Contrary to market expectations, The Times also reported that the Confederation of British Industry (“CBI”) predicts that the BOE will not cut interest rates until 2026 due to persistently high inflation. The CBI outlook suggests that the base rate will stay at 5.25% for at least two more years, impacting consumer spending and business investment. The CBI's growth forecast of 0.8% in the UK for the coming year underscores concerns about the prolonged impact of elevated interest rates on the economy...

Stocks featured:

Currys, Chemring Group and Entain

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bank of England expected to keep interest rates on hold this week

Tue, 12 Dec 2023 13:53:23 GMT

The UK economy shows promising signs of stabilising following the recent economic slowdown induced by soaring inflation and successive interest rate hikes. At the Bank of England’s (“BoE”) upcoming monetary policy committee meeting this week, the committee is expected to keep interest rates on hold as wage growth remains

relatively high and inflation levels remain elevated. The British Chamber of Commerce highlighted that the UK economy will continue growing until the end of 2025, albeit at extremely low levels. The report highlighted prolonged higher interest rates, trade barriers and limits on consumer spending as headwinds which present a low growth environment. A Reuters poll indicates a split among economists regarding the timing of the BoE's potential rate-cutting cycle, with opinions varying on both the initiation and eventual levels of rate cuts....

Stocks featured:

Moonpig Group, Paragon Banking Group and Ashtead Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bank of England underscores challenges ahead in taming inflation

Tue, 05 Dec 2023 16:45:57 GMT

Bank of England (“BoE”) Governor Andrew Bailey and Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden last week underscored the challenges ahead in taming inflation. Bailey, in an interview with The Chronicle, acknowledged the difficulty of the next stage in the fight against inflation. While welcoming recent data, Bailey was sceptical that the 2% target will be achieved any time soon, predicting inflation to stand at around 4% by the end of the first quarter of 2024. Deputy Governor Ramsden, interviewed on Bloomberg TV and at a conference in Hong Kong, emphasised the need for a prolonged restrictive policy to further reduce inflation, projecting no return to target before the end of 2025.....

Stocks featured:

Rolls-Royce, Dr Martens and Lloyds Banking Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

BoE Governor cautions against premature rate cut discussions

Tue, 28 Nov 2023 15:58:18 GMT

As per a City A.M. poll last week, economists project Bank of England (“BoE”) interest rate cuts between May and August next year, contrasting with market expectations of a move from March. BoE policymakers remain cautious about high wage growth and persistent inflation concerns and view the ongoing Gaza conflict as a significant risk to inflation targets. The potential for an earlier rate cut hinges on economic slowing, influenced by the impact of prior rate tightening....

Stocks featured:

Sage Group, Cranswick and Diploma

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bank of England balancing act: Control inflation and support the economy

Tue, 21 Nov 2023 18:00:21 GMT

Last week saw the UK October inflation figures witness a significant drop, with the headline Consumer Price Index (“CPI”) standing at 4.6% year-on-year, below the consensus expectations of 4.8% and a substantial decrease from

the prior month's 6.7%. Core inflation also moderated to 5.7% versus a consensus estimate of 5.8% and September’s 6.1% reading. The breakdown from the Office for National Statistics (“ONS”) attributed this decline primarily to housing and household services, where the annual rate for CPI was at its lowest level since records began in 1950. The Bank of England (“BOE”) has also been closely monitoring service prices and noted a decrease to 6.6% from 6.9% last month. This, combined with softer labour market data, reinforces expectations that the BOE's rate cycle has peaked, with the possibility of an interest rate cut coming as early as next May. However, The Times reported that money markets have been pricing in rate cuts from as early as March after the slowdown in inflation. BOE policymakers continue to signal caution over rate cut bets, maintaining the narrative that rates will remain higher for longer....

Stocks featured:

Experian, Ocado Group and Halma

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK economy faces a diverse set of challenges

Tue, 14 Nov 2023 12:06:42 GMT

Last week, Bloomberg Economics conducted an analysis revealing that the latest forecasts are indicative of turbulent times ahead for the UK economy, with key indicators suggesting that the country may already be in the midst of a recession. After a period of aggressive monetary tightening and rising unemployment, households are becoming more cautious about spending, posing a significant challenge for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who faces an upcoming election. The Autumn Budget statement on 22 November is under scrutiny, with scepticism from think tanks about the fiscal headroom for tax cuts. While Bank of England (“BoE”) Governor Andrew Bailey insists it is premature to discuss interest rate cuts, Chief Economist Huw Pill acknowledges investors are not being unreasonable in their prediction for rate cuts next summer. Traders are now anticipating interest rate decreases in the region of 0.75% next year, reflecting a notable shift from just 0.3% last month. The contrasting views within the BoE highlight the complexity of navigating economic uncertainties, especially with the threat of inflation and geopolitical tensions....

Stocks featured:

Marks & Spencer, Associated British Foods and Auto Trader

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bank of England keeps interest rates steady for second consecutive meeting

Tue, 07 Nov 2023 17:36:28 GMT

Last week saw the Bank of England (“BoE”) decide to keep interest rates steady at 5.25% for the second consecutive meeting, in line with expectations. The BoE's assessment notes that while there have been no significant changes in inflation since September, underlying inflation remains elevated, and the potential for secondary inflation effects to unwind is prolonged. The BoE also highlighted the risk of rising inflation due to Middle East events, despite the current mean projection for inflation to be at 2.2% in two years’ time and 1.9% in three years’ time. The gross domestic product growth forecast for the third quarter of 2023 is now expected to be flat, falling below previous estimates from August of 0.1% growth. The central bank also signalled a 50% chance of a recession by mid-2024. The BoE's forecasts are based on expectations of maintaining the 5.25% base rate until the third quarter 2024. Despite the BoE's recent hawkish stance, market sentiment remains slightly more dovish, with a 25% probability of one more interest rate rise by February 2024 and focus shifting to the timing of the first rate cut. The central bank may have to consider reducing the bank rate faster next year as the economy slows...

Stocks featured:

Ocado Group, BP and Next

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Borrowing costs surge to their highest point in 25 years

Tue, 31 Oct 2023 17:04:07 GMT

The UK's economic landscape experienced several developments last week. Borrowing costs surged to their highest point in 25 years as the 30-year UK gilt yield reached 5.209%. This increase mirrored global trends as investors worldwide anticipate interest rates will remain at elevated levels for a longer period than first expected. Despite this, a Reuters survey of economists indicated that the Bank of England's rate cycle might have peaked, with expectations of rates remaining on hold until the second quarter of 2024. Inflation risks were acknowledged, though the labour market seemed to stabilise. The majority foresaw the first rate cut, if needed, occurring no earlier than July, with a 0.25% reduction. In parallel, the UK labour market displayed challenges, with the benefit claimant count showing a substantial rise by 20,400, exceeding consensus estimates of a 2,300 increase. Notably, uncertainty around the Labour Force Survey prompted the introduction of a new data series for the unemployment rate by the Office for National Statistics, revealing a 4.2% unemployment rate, up by 0.2% from the previous quarter. Payrolled employment saw a decline and average weekly earnings eased....

Stocks featured:

Natwest Group, Barclays Initial and International Consolidated Airlines Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

BoE Deputy Governor: Interest rates will persist at higher levels

Tue, 24 Oct 2023 14:26:46 GMT

September brought an unexpected twist to the UK inflation narrative, with a surprising increase to 6.7% year-on-year, slightly surpassing consensus expectations of 6.6%. The service sector, which saw increasing prices, was noted as the primary driver. While this may encourage a more hawkish stance within the Bank of England (“BoE”), wage growth indicated signs of slowing, suggesting a potential easing in price pressures by the end of the year. The UK labour market also displayed signs of easing, with a decrease in payrolled employees and vacancies. The Times cited BoE Deputy Governor, Jon Cunliffe, who anticipates that interest rates will persist at higher levels for the foreseeable future. He noted mixed economic signals, with some indicators slowing, while others suggest that the labour market is beginning to cool. He acknowledged that the economy displayed more resilience in 2022 than previously thought...

Stocks featured:

Bellway, Rentokil Initial and Segro

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

IMF's World Economic Outlook: Challenges and consequences

Tue, 17 Oct 2023 15:32:34 GMT

The International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) released its World Economic Outlook last week, which provided a comprehensive perspective on the global economy. While the outlook has shown some balancing since earlier this year, downside risks persist. The report highlighted the limited room for policy errors and delved into the consequences of tightening policies on both inflation and economic activity. The IMF's updated gross domestic product growth forecasts for 2023 and 2024 include a weaker growth outlook for the UK compared to its G7 peers in 2024. It is also noteworthy that core inflation is expected to decline gradually, with many economies not returning to target inflation until 2025. This suggests that monetary policy must remain consistent to effectively tackle inflation, while fiscal consolidation is essential to address rising debt.

Stocks featured:

EasyJet, YouGov and Ashmore Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Halifax data shows signs of stabilisation in the UK housing market

Tue, 10 Oct 2023 11:48:23 GMT

Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party conference speech last week marked the beginning of his election campaign. He outlined a bold agenda, including tax cuts, education reform and a substantial £36 billion investment in northern and midlands transport infrastructure. This investment came as a result of the decision to cancel the northern leg of the HS2 railway project, which stirred mixed reactions and represented a significant shift in political consensus. Sunak also emphasised the Conservative Party's commitment to bold change, introducing a new qualification, the "Advanced British Standard," and promising tax cuts while highlighting the need to control inflation. Additionally, he proposed a phased increase in the legal smoking age....

Stocks featured:

Aviva, Pennon Group and Tesco

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Economists believe the Bank of England has finished raising rates

Wed, 04 Oct 2023 10:26:36 GMT

Last week saw mixed signals for the UK economy as the job market displayed signs of cooling. According to an update from the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (“REC”), job postings rose by 13.5% in the week ending 17th September but remained below earlier-year averages, with 175,000 new job adverts posted, down from over 200,000 on average earlier in the year. The REC Chief Executive, Neil Carberry, noted that recruiters

across the country have reported a market normalisation as job postings fell from pandemic highs. This cooling labour market was highlighted by the Bank of England (“BoE”) as one of the factors influencing its decision to keep interest rates on hold. Despite these concerns, the UK's economic performance since the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic has been stronger than previously thought. Data from the Office for National Statistics revealed that the UK's recovery has outpaced that of Germany and France, signalling a faster post-pandemic rebound. This unexpected resilience in the economy has raised questions about the accuracy of official economic forecasts. The Institute for Fiscal Studies cautioned that excessive government borrowing, driven by costly policies introduced by recent chancellors, has undermined faith in these forecasts....

Stocks featured:

Future, Card Factory and Learning Technologies Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Have UK interest rates peaked?

Tue, 26 Sep 2023 15:59:36 GMT

Last week saw inflation and interest rates take centre stage as the latest figures were released. Forecasts at the beginning of the week showed that August inflation was expected to accelerate to 7% from a prior reading of 6.8% in July, with economists attributing the acceleration to rising fuel prices. However, August inflation came in weaker than expected at 6.7% alongside a much softer core inflation figure of 6.2%, compared to a consensus

forecast of 6.8%. The Office for National Statistics (“ONS”) said that the largest downward contribution came from food prices and accommodation services, which offset fuel price increases. This inflation reading led to a shift in momentum from consensus expectations for an interest rate hike, as markets priced in less than a 50% probability of a 0.25% rate rise compared to previous forecasts which anticipated there would be a quarter percent increase....

Stocks featured:

JD Sports Fashion, Dunelm Group and Halma

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK grocery inflation falls to lowest level in a year

Tue, 19 Sep 2023 15:22:09 GMT

Last week saw UK equity markets in positive territory as the FTSE 100 closed the week 2.1% higher as markets continue to anticipate that the Bank of England (“BoE”) is approaching the end of its rate tightening cycle. An article published by Bloomberg discussed recent rhetoric from BoE policymakers and noticed that there is a change in tone alongside more clarity on the debate facing the Monetary Policy Committee as it nears the end of the cycle. It was noted that the change in tone may be a sign of the BoE laying the foundations for a pause in interest rate hikes. However, the BoE may find it difficult to justify a pause at this week’s upcoming meeting, due to accelerating wage growth as a result of one-off bonuses and basic pay increases stuck at high levels. This demonstrates the continued resilience within the UK labour market, although unemployment figures are showing gradual signs of increasing as a result of the slowing economy. The latest figures published last week show the UK unemployment rate was 4.3% during the period May to July 2023, compared to 4.2% in the previous quarter...

Stocks featured:

Renishaw, Kier Group and Associated British Foods

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

British Chamber of Commerce: UK economy will avoid technical recession

Tue, 12 Sep 2023 13:13:22 GMT

The British Chamber of Commerce (“BCC”) published updated economic outlook figures last week which highlighted an expectation that the UK economy will avoid a technical recession. However, growth is set to remain weak. Figures state that the UK is expected to have a growth rate of 0.4% for the whole of 2023, dropping to 0.3% in 2024 and rising to 0.7% in 2025. The BCC also revised inflation figures upwards for 2024 to 3% against a previous forecast of 1.5%. This shows that the BCC expects inflation to remain higher for longer, largely as a result of a resilient labour market. The report suggests that although the UK economy will avoid a recession, it will likely feel like one for a lot of households and businesses due to the low growth levels within the economy....

Stocks featured:

Hilton Food Group, Gamma Communications and Ashtead Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Hope that global economies are nearing end of monetary tightening

Tue, 05 Sep 2023 15:21:25 GMT

Last week saw the FTSE 100 rise 1.6% amid hopes that global economies are nearing the end of the monetary tightening cycle. Growth within the UK equity market has been relatively flat since the start of 2023, with the FTSE 100 increasing by approximately 0.5% over the year to date. Persistent high inflation and aggressive monetary tightening by the Bank of England (“BoE”) have been the main factors leading to minimal growth for UK equities. On a valuation basis, the FTSE 100 is trading on a price to earnings ratio of approximately 10.5x, which is at the lower end of statistics over the past two decades, indicating that current UK equity prices could be considered as cheap. This is of no real surprise given the consistent negative sentiment surrounding the outlook for global economies....

Stocks featured:

Johnson Matthey, Grafton Group and Bunzl

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

ONS data suggests inflation may be easing more quickly than expected

Tue, 29 Aug 2023 13:26:31 GMT

The UK market experienced a relatively quiet week last week as the FTSE 100 closed approximately 1% higher at 7,339. Inflation and interest rates continue to be the main influencing factors at present with the market continuing to forecast UK interest rates peaking at 6%. The Times reported on the most recent Office for National Statistics (“ONS”) inflation data published last week which suggested that inflation may be easing quicker than initially expected. The ONS calculations showed that core inflation fell to 6.8% in July from 6.9% in June and from a peak of 7.3% in May, compared with original data for July showing that core inflation had held steady at 6.9%. This update is a welcome development; however, services inflation is at multi-decade highs of 7.4% and wages continue to be at record levels, meaning that the updated ONS figures are unlikely to shift near term market or Bank of England (“BOE”) expectations. A Reuters poll of economists also showed that 61 of the 62 economists surveyed expect a 0.25% rate hike in September with a narrow majority thinking that this will be the end of the rate tightening cycle. Out of the 62 economists surveyed, 27 still said that rates could peak at 5.75% and two said 6%, with underlying inflation remaining too high and elevated wage growth continuing to be the most challenging aspect of BOE policy making...

Stocks featured:

BAE Systems, CRH and JD Sports Fashion

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

British wages on track to outpace inflation

Tue, 22 Aug 2023 14:28:51 GMT

BAE Systems, the defence, aerospace and security company, announced it has agreed to purchase Ball Corporation’s aerospace business for approximately $5.55 billion in cash. The company said that it entered into a definitive agreement to purchase the unit, which manufactures instruments and sensors for everything from space travel to weather forecasting. The acquisition is expected to add to BAE’s earnings per share and margins in the first year following completion. The unit is also expected to generate approximately $2.2 billion in revenue this year. BAE shares dropped by approximately 5.2% last week as a result of the news with investors viewing the deal as expensive....

Stocks featured:

BAE Systems, Admiral Group and Balfour Beatty

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bank of England forecasts inflation will decline to 5% by end of year

Tue, 15 Aug 2023 11:57:19 GMT

Bank of England (“BoE”) chief economist, Huw Pill, said last week that UK inflation remains too high and too persistent, especially as food prices may not decline in the short term. Pill stated that food price inflation may decline to 10% this year, but actual disinflation in food prices may not occur for some time after this. The BoE now forecasts that inflation will decline to 5% by the end of this year, but will not drop to the 2% target until the second quarter of 2025. Pill commented that higher and persistent inflation in the UK is mostly to do with higher imported goods prices and stressed that much of the monetary policy tightening has yet to impact the economy. However, there are signs that recent rate rises are working through the economy as inflation is falling and the labour market is cooling. The BoE remains committed to monitoring economic data and will continue with monetary tightening until it sees a further slowdown in inflation, but there is increasing optimism that we may be approaching the pivot point after fourteen consecutive rate rises...

Stocks featured:

Abrdn, Savills and TI Fluid Systems

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

BoE raise rates again and expect them stay higher for longer

Tue, 08 Aug 2023 12:18:21 GMT

BAE Systems, a defence, aerospace, and security company, saw its share price increase by approximately 8.7% last week after announcing first half results which beat market expectations. The company also raised its guidance for full year sales, underlying Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT), Earnings Per Share (EPS) and free cash flow. The dividend also increased by 11% when compared to last year alongside an approved further share buyback program of up to £1.5 billion. This program is expected to roll-on after completion of the current buyback program and conclude within three years of its commencement...

Stocks featured:

BAE Systems, ConvaTec Group Plc and Greggs Plc

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

BoE should slow the pace of rate increases after better than expected inflation data

Tue, 01 Aug 2023 14:27:23 GMT

Ocado Plc, the UK based technology-led software and robotics platform, features again in this week's market commentary as its share price surged approximately 42.1% last week. The company has received a wave of positive news recently including rumours of a potential bid from Amazon, better than expected earnings and a positive settlement hearing which have all contributed to the strong share price performance. The £200 million settlement appears to have reassured investors and prospective partners of the continued unique access to Ocado’s technology and patent protection...

Stocks featured:

Ocado Plc, Croda International Plc and Centrica Plc

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

FTSE 100 rallies on better-than-expected UK inflation figures for June

Tue, 25 Jul 2023 10:30:28 GMT

Ocado Group, the UK based technology-led software and robotics platform business, saw its share price soar by approximately 15% after announcing first half earnings. One of the main positive takeaways from the results was that Ocado has been delivering on its promise of reducing its cash burn. The company also announced that group revenue grew by 9% year on year, with its Technology Solutions division seeing revenue increase by 59% year on year. Investors viewed this announcement positively and believe that the company is well positioned to deliver on its long-term objectives...

Stocks featured:

Ocado Group, Wise and Persimmon

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

High inflation and rising interest rates remain at forefront of investors minds

Tue, 18 Jul 2023 13:58:44 GMT

Last week saw the shares of JD Wetherspoon, the owner and operator of pubs throughout the UK and Ireland, increase by approximately 8.7% after announcing a trading update. The update demonstrated that trading was in line with market expectations and in the last 10 weeks like-for-like sales were 11% higher than 2019 levels. The company also announced a small improvement in expected utility costs, resulting in a one-off uplift to the company’s estimates for 2024...

Stocks featured:

JD Wetherspoon, Experian and Ashmore Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

JP Morgan: BoE may hike rates to 7% in "worst-case scenario"

Tue, 11 Jul 2023 13:31:49 GMT

The UK’s FTSE 100 saw a decline of approximately 3.4% last week. The index closed Monday’s sessions at 7,274 as sticky inflation and rising interest rates continue to be an area for concern. Bank of England (“BoE”) Governor, Andrew Bailey, stated in an interview with the BBC his continued commitment to bringing inflation down. Bailey did not provide a timeframe for when rates might peak or begin to decrease as inflation continues to remain too high. This led to market expectations continuing to rise with markets now anticipating rates to reach 6.5% by March 2024. Last week also saw research published by JP Morgan highlighting that the BoE may need to hike rates to 7% in a worst-case scenario. However, their expectation is that rates will peak at 5.75% in November this year....

Stocks featured:

AstraZeneca, Currys and Jet2

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK mortgage lending falls for second consecutive month for first time since records began

Wed, 05 Jul 2023 08:19:45 GMT

Sage Group, the cloud-based business management solution company, saw JP Morgan analysts upgrade the stock to overweight from neutral. This resulted in its share price increasing by approximately 6% last week. The company is expected to deliver sustainable double-digit organic revenue growth until 2025. JP Morgan believes there is room for further revenue growth between 2026 and 2030 with the company having a strong track record and a high free cash flow conversion...

Stocks featured:

Sage Group, Aston Martin and Serco Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Unexpected inflation rise causes Bank of England to raise rates by 0.5%

Tue, 27 Jun 2023 11:37:27 GMT

The beginning of last week saw investors and some sell-side economists speculating that market estimates for the Bank of England (“BoE”) rate outlook may have been too aggressive. At the start of the week, markets were pricing a peak rate close to 5.75% based on forecasts for inflation figures on Wednesday to decelerate to 8.4% from 8.7% in May. However, when Wednesday arrived, inflation figures unexpectedly rose to 8.7%. Inflation has now registered 22 months above the 2% target with expectations for any meaningful slowdown in inflation unlikely to arrive before July. This led gilts to come under pressure as the yield on two-year gilts increased by approximately 0.2%, firmly above 5%. The ten-year benchmark was more than 0.1% higher, just short of 4.5%, close to its highest levels since last October. This has resulted in the spread between two-year and ten-year gilts to be the most inverted it has been since 2000. Markets therefore anticipated an increased likelihood of more aggressive rate tightening, increasing the risk of a recession...

Stocks featured:

Anglo American, Ocado and Persimmon

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

BoE Governor: Inflation taking longer than hoped to come down

Wed, 21 Jun 2023 08:29:05 GMT

Smith & Nephew, the British multinational medical equipment manufacturer, saw its share price increase by approximately 5% last week. The increase in share price was triggered as a result of Smith & Nephew receiving Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") clearance for its AETOS Shoulder System. This is the latest solution in Smith & Nephew’s expanding Upper Extremity portfolio and is designed to maximise stability, preserve bone and maintain patient anatomy. The company also noted that total shoulder arthroplasty is one of the fastest growing segments in Orthopaedics with an estimated 250,000 procedures in the US by 2025...

Stocks featured:

Smith & Nephew, Glencore and 888 Holdings

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK housing market slows with first annual decline since 2012

Tue, 13 Jun 2023 15:09:47 GMT

The UK housing market was one of the key areas of focus this week as UK Halifax house price data was announced. The data showed a flat reading in May, but on an annual basis prices fell 1% versus consensus for a 0.9% drop. This was the first annual decline in prices since December 2012. Halifax did highlight that given the flat monthly reading, the annual decline reflects strong house price growth this time last year. This has shown a shift from the brief upturn in prices seen at the beginning of the year as the impact of higher interest rates feeds through into the market. This is largely impacting those with expiring fixed rate mortgage deals as they need to refinance at higher rates...

Stocks featured:

Croda International, Boohoo and Indivior

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Rising interest rates impact UK M&A activity

Wed, 07 Jun 2023 08:22:44 GMT

Dechra Pharmaceuticals, a business involved in the development and marketing of veterinary products, saw its share price increase approximately 15% last week. This was after a cash offer made by Freya Bidco Limited for the entire issued, and to be issued, ordinary share capital of Dechra for 3,875p per share. This represented a 44% premium to the closing price of 2,690 pence on the 12th April, the last business day before the commencement of the Offer Period...

Stocks featured:

Dechra Pharmaceuticals, B&M and Greencore

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Implications of the US Debt Ceiling Agreement on the Economy

Wed, 31 May 2023 11:32:20 GMT

Nvidia, the American multinational technology company, announced first quarter results last week which beat expectations and sent the share price soaring approximately 24.6% last week. Nvidia issued guidance for substantial sequential revenue growth in the second quarter as demand for content-creating artificial intelligence bolsters its data centre platform. The company said that revenue has been largely flat at $11 billion, plus or minus 2%, for the July quarter. The consensus among analysts was for revenue of $7.13 billion before the outlook was given, and later raised to $11.09 billion. In the first quarter, revenue declined 13% year over year to $7.19 billion, but surpassed expectations for $6.52 billion. Generative artificial intelligence drove significant upside for Nvidia’s products, and has created significant opportunities for broad-based global growth which provides an exciting outlook for the company...

Stocks featured:

Nvidia, Marks and Spencer and Pets at Home

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK markets remain flat as labour market shows signs of easing

Wed, 24 May 2023 11:44:28 GMT

Informa shares increased approximately 4% last week as it was announced the company had reached an agreement to acquire Winsight for $380 million and that its acquisition of Tarsus completed ahead of schedule. The acquisition of Winsight is expected to accelerate Informa’s growth by offering expansion within the business-to-business foodservice market. Informa’s acquisition is also expected to deliver strong financial returns with earnings accretion from the outset and a post-tax return ahead of Informa’s long-term weighted average cost of capital in the first full year of ownership. The deal has been fully funded by in-year cash flow growth and Informa’s balance sheet, with the expectation to further grow revenues, margins, earnings and cash flow..

Stocks featured:

Informa, YouGov and BT Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bank of England raises rates as food prices remain high

Tue, 16 May 2023 17:42:43 GMT

Beazley is a UK-based global specialist risk insurance and reinsurance company. Last week the company issued a trading statement announcing its net income at $104 million for the quarter ended 31 March 2023, marking a recovery from a loss of $92 million in the prior-year period. Management also remained confident in its growth guidance of mid teens gross premium written and mid 20s net premium written for 2023 full year. The positive trading statement resulted in Beazley’s share price rising approximately 3.87% for the week...

Stocks featured:

Beazley, Vertu Motors and ASOS

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Fed chair warns shift to cutting rates may not happen quickly

Wed, 10 May 2023 08:12:23 GMT

HSBC reported strong first quarter results this week and announced record profits as the bank benefited from the new era of higher interest rates and the rapid reopening of China. HSBC reported profit before tax of $12.9 billion, up $9 billion compared to the first quarter of 2022, an increase of approximately 230%. HSBC also saw revenue increase by 64% to $20.2 billion which was largely driven by higher net interest income in all of HSBC’s global businesses due to interest rate rises. The strong results enabled HSBC to announce its first quarterly dividend since 2019 of $0.10 per share, as well as a share buy-back of up to $2 billion. Management announced that HSBC expects to be able to have substantial future distribution capacity for dividends and share buy-backs. Markets responded positively to this announcement, sending the share price up by approximately 4.53% last week...

Stocks featured:

HSBC, Shopify and Pearson

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Collapse of First Republic Bank renews stress in the banking sector

Wed, 03 May 2023 08:59:16 GMT

It was a big week for Microsoft with the announcement of third quarter results alongside the announcement that the proposed $68.7 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard had been blocked by the Competition and Markets Authority (“CMA”). The CMA expressed concern that Microsoft’s proposed acquisition of Activision Blizzard would harm competition in the fast-growing cloud gaming market. It appears that Activision Blizzard intends to work with Microsoft to appeal this decision. Microsoft’s third quarter results beat analyst expectations on both the top and bottom lines which led to the share price increasing approximately 7.52% last week. Microsoft’s announcement focused on the early feedback from the artificial intelligence demand that Microsoft have had so far. Microsoft explained that this will be an area of focus for investment with the expectation that this will help improve customer transformation and in time result in strong revenue growth...

Stocks featured:

Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft and Prudential

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK inflation remains stickier than forecasted as CPI remains above 10%

Wed, 26 Apr 2023 13:59:56 GMT

The UK is showing that inflation continues to remain stickier than forecasted as consumer price inflation for March slowed by less than expected to 10.1% from 10.4% in February. The largest downward contributions came from motor fuels and heating oil prices, alongside soaring food prices which weighed heavily. Notable rising food prices included olive oil prices rising 49% in the year to March, sugar up 32% with milk, cheese and other dairy products all up over 30%. Food price inflation remains a thorn in the side to the Bank of England (“BoE”) achieving its inflation target of 2%. The Office for National Statistics (“ONS”) stated that this is the strongest increase in food prices in more than four decades. Retailers said that food inflation is a delayed effect of energy and commodity price rises during the past year along with poor harvests and a period of sterling weakness. As we enter the UK growing season, we are more likely to see a slowdown in food inflation, which hopefully will provide some ease to consumers...

Stocks featured:

Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Anglo American, Glencore, Meta Platforms (Facebook) Microsoft, Teck Resources and Tesla

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

IMF predicts UK economy will decline by less than previously predicted in 2023

Wed, 19 Apr 2023 08:27:11 GMT

The UK stock market saw gains last week as the FTSE 100 index climbed by 1.8%. It was announced that the UK economy stagnated in February as Gross Domestic Product (“GDP”) showed zero growth, largely as a result of the widespread industrial action which led to a disruption in productivity. GDP was below expectations of a 0.1% increase and even further below January’s 0.4% growth figure. The largest contributor to negative growth in services came from teacher strikes and was partly offset by growth in the construction sector. There have been concerns over growth in the UK in recent months, but it appears to be slowly easing as the International Monetary Fund (“IMF”) predicted that the UK’s economy would decline by 0.3% in 2023, which is less than its previous forecasts. However, upward revisions in GDP and improving global economic conditions have given increased confidence that a recession in the UK is less likely, with the focus shifting towards identifying signals for an anticipated rebound...

Stocks featured:

Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & Co, LXi REIT, Superdry and Wells Fargo

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

OPEC+ cuts oil production by 1.65 million barrels per day

Tue, 11 Apr 2023 13:28:00 GMT

The Easter bank holiday saw many people enjoy a longer weekend as markets were on hold for a couple of days. Nonetheless, news was still plentiful as global markets continued to move in multiple different directions. One of the key news stories was that Saudi Arabia made a surprise decision to cut oil production by 500,000 barrels a day, alongside other OPEC+ nations joining them to result in a total production cut of 1.65 million barrels a day until the end of 2023. This saw the oil price surge by approximately 6% last week and it will be interesting to see what impact this will have on the price of oil for the remainder of the year...

Stocks featured:

Alphabet Inc (Google), AstraZeneca, Entain and RS Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bank of England Governor insists UK banking sector remains in good health despite "heightened tension"

Tue, 04 Apr 2023 14:30:10 GMT

Last week, revised official data revealed that the UK avoided a recession last year, helped by the energy bill subsidies provided by the government to ease pressures on households from the cost of living crisis. Notably UK GDP grew by 0.1% in the 4th quarter demonstrating the UK economy is still seeing some growth. However, there are signs the housing market remains weak as Nationwide said house prices fell in March at the fastest annual rate since the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Alongside this, Bank of England data demonstrated that there was a big drop in net mortgage lending in February. This was largely due to rising interest rates as a result of persistent high inflation, which is still weighing heavily on affordability for house buyers...

Stocks featured:

Intel Corporation, Ocado and Rio Tinto

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

March madness as renewed uncertainties are triggered by banking crisis

Tue, 28 Mar 2023 12:57:37 GMT

March madness had a different undertone this year as investors faced market volatility and renewed uncertainties brought upon by a regional banking crisis.

The Bank of England (“BoE”) raised interest rates to 4.25% from 4% in an eleventh consecutive monthly increase. Minutes from the meeting showed that the Financial Policy Committee told policymakers before the vote that the "UK banking system maintains robust capital and strong liquidity positions," and that "the UK banking system remains resilient." Financial markets appear to expect rates to increase again amid no signs of a let-up in inflation. On a year-on-year basis, consumer prices rose to 10.4% in February, well above the consensus expectation...

Stocks featured:

Crest Nicholson, Inchcape and JD Wetherspoon

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Can multiple financial rescues and a government budget keep a hibernating bear at bay?

Tue, 21 Mar 2023 16:14:28 GMT

As European and US indices turned lower last week, investors were left pondering: can multiple financial rescues and a government budget keep a hibernating bear at bay?

Last autumn, UK pension funds that use liability driven investing as a core investment strategy were the first to experience a mismatch in assets and liabilities, necessitating a liquidity backstop. The Bank of England had to step in with a short-term quantitative easing program to prevent a crash in the gilt market and stabilise the UK pension sector.

Fast forward from last year to the present day, and three US banks have failed, demonstrating that the banking sector is not immune to the harsh realities of quantitative tightening. The troubles these banks faced were not triggered by a disastrous mini budget but rather a fall in the value of crypto currency assets. Nonetheless, a mismatch in assets and liabilities has resulted once more albeit in a different sector. Each bank has had its own White Knight come along to the rescue in the form of a bid from a competitor or a ‘bailout’. Although the US Federal Reserve (“Fed”) has been careful not to use that word, all the while emphasising support is going directly to depositors - not to the banks...

Stocks featured:

Close Brothers, Credit Suisse, Direct Line, Prudential and UBS

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Central banks' race to reassure equity markets after collapse of Silicon Valley Bank

Tue, 14 Mar 2023 16:04:45 GMT

It was always going to take a big news story to divert the attention of equity markets away from hanging on every word that Jerome Powell (Chair of the US Federal Reserve, "Fed") utters about inflation and the likely path of interest rates. The sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank ("SVB") proved to be just the story. To put it simply, the Fed's policy of aggressively raising interest rates has had the effect of pushing borrowing costs to a level above where many cash-hungry start-up companies can sustainably raise finance. At the same time, those very same high interest rates feed into (and have a negative effect on) the discounted cash flow valuations which are commonly used to value unprofitable start-up companies - the result being to effectively starve them of the opportunity to raise equity finance. So, choked of all forms of finance, their only option had been to draw upon cash reserves held with the likes of SVB. As cash calls gathered pace, SVB had to liquidate some of its "low risk" capital (i.e. US Treasuries) much earlier than it had expected it would need to. Due to the rate hiking over the past year, those “low risk” Treasuries were not worth nearly as much as they had been 12 months prior - and so SVB faced a cash shortfall, which it tried to plug via a hastily arranged equity fund-raising. If there is one thing guaranteed to cause panic amongst investors and savers alike, it is a bank that admits it cannot meet customer redemption requests...

Stocks featured:

Direct Line, Legal & General and Robert Walters

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bank of England Governor warns interest rates may still have to increase further

Tue, 07 Mar 2023 16:35:38 GMT

In the US, the S&P 500 closed 1.9% higher for the week, regaining some of ground lost through February where it declined by 2.6%. There were a number of important economic reports in the week, however their mixed nature meant there was a lack of noteworthy catalysts for performance. The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in higher in February at 47.7 (previously 47.4) and was slightly ahead of median forecasts of 47.6. It does, however, remain in contraction territory, as levels below 50 indicate slowing activity. The ISM's services PMI fell slightly to 55.1 (previously 55.2), but came in above median forecasts of 54.3 and remains in modest expansion. The most surprising data point of the week was the 8.1% jump in pending home sales in January (previous month 1.1%), far ahead of median forecasts of 0.9%. Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors' attributed the jump to the dip in mortgage rates over the new year and indicated that "home sales activity looks to be bottoming out in the first quarter."

Stocks featured:

Aston Martin Lagonda, Persimmon and Rightmove

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Sterling rises on news of new Brexit deal over Northern Ireland

Wed, 01 Mar 2023 15:47:43 GMT

Global equity markets experienced slight declines over the week, with share prices stagnating from the market rally which began in October. In fixed income markets, yields broadly increased amid further anticipated interest rate rises and this put downward pressure on prices. This has also negatively impacted residential property with increased mortgage costs leading to price declines for the fifth consecutive month, according to Nationwide’s latest figures...

Stocks featured:

HSBC, Howden Joinery and Rolls-Royce

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

FTSE 100 breaks through the 8,000 barrier for the first time

Tue, 21 Feb 2023 15:05:19 GMT

The UK’s FTSE 100 index broke through the 8,000 barrier for the first time last week, carrying on its momentum since the start of 2023. However, we should not lose sight of the fact that the FTSE 100 does not really represent the overall UK economy, as it is, of course, heavily weighted towards BP, Shell, mining stock and banks. All of which are benefiting from the reopening of China and likely resource demand that will come from that. To put it in perspective, the FTSE 100 stood at 6,335 on 30 January 2001 and its capital return over this period has been 26%. It is very welcoming to see the FTSE 100 at this level, however it is by no means a reflection of either the UK or global economy...

Stocks featured:

Barclays, Centrica, Dunelm Group and Hargreaves Lansdown

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Disinflationary wave has room to run

Wed, 15 Feb 2023 16:32:18 GMT

Improving Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (“PMIs”) data and a much better-than-expected employment report have recently given investors new confidence that the economy can avert a near-term recession, boosting market sentiment and stock prices. Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve (“Fed”) has remained largely steadfast in its hawkish messaging, increasing the likelihood of additional 0.25% rate hikes in both March and May. However, the major benchmarks ended lower in a week with relatively few important economic releases or other concrete drivers of sentiment. Sector performance was relatively uniform within the S&P 500 Index, with energy stocks being the notable upside outlier and communication services shares the prominent laggard...

Stocks featured:

Adidas, Alphabet and Walt Disney Co.

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US Federal Reserve Chair Powell states "the disinflationary process has started"

Tue, 07 Feb 2023 17:53:29 GMT

Newsflow over the past week was dominated by Central Banks as they continued to tighten monetary policy in their ongoing fight against inflation. Perhaps most importantly for global markets, the US Federal Reserve ("Fed") increased its funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 4.5 - 4.75%, marking the 8th increase (albeit the smallest rate of increase) since March 2022. The Bank of England and the European Central Bank both read from the same script and followed suit, each raising their benchmark lending rates by 0.5% (to 4.0% and 2.5% respectively)...

Stocks featured:

Amazon, Apple and BT Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US GDP figures better than expected

Tue, 31 Jan 2023 16:49:38 GMT

Warren Buffet compared the stock market to a voting machine and a weighing machine in a letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders back in 1987. In the short term, it can be influenced by ever-changing public opinion. But like a weighing machine, over the long term, what truly matters is the concrete, measurable financial results that determine its true value. This idea is relevant to the current situation, where the market is off to a great start for the year; perhaps as a consequence of market participants placing too great a vote of confidence in better-than-expected GDP data and an over-sensitivity to the annual pace of inflation cooling...

Stocks featured:

Diageo, Intel and J Sainsbury

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

AI start-ups seeing a flood of investment

Tue, 24 Jan 2023 18:53:30 GMT

Equity markets delivered mild returns, despite an array of poor economic data announcements. Bond yields were also relatively flat leading to minor price changes with weakening conditions justifying potentially lower interest rate hikes across multiple developed economies.

Figures released from the Office for National Statistics revealed further falls in retail sales by 1% in December as struggling consumers cut back their spending. UK house prices also recorded a sharp decline over the same period according to the latest Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors survey. This was a reflection of a challenging environment for new buyers following increasing mortgage costs and heightened economic uncertainty...

Stocks featured:

Alphabet, Amazon, Dignity and Microsoft

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Equity markets experience another positive week

Tue, 17 Jan 2023 14:20:06 GMT

Equity markets broadly experienced another positive week with the FTSE 100 rising 1.7% over the period, to reach a near all-time high. Investors eagerly awaited the results from the latest US inflation figures which revealed a fall to 6.5% from 7.1% the previous month, in line with expectations. This was the sixth consecutive fall in CPI inflation driven largely by declining oil prices. This helped strengthen the trend that falling prices would persist and reduced the pressure on central banks to tighten monetary policy through interest rate hikes. The announcement helped drive bond yields lower which had a positive impact on prices...

Stocks featured:

Card Factory, Direct Line and ASOS

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets end 2022 on a high note

Tue, 10 Jan 2023 14:00:12 GMT

The markets ended 2022 on a high note, following what has been a very tough year for investors. The continued rise of inflation has ultimately led economies into a "once in generation" macro-economic cycle, of the kind last seen in the 1970s. There was a huge sell off in growth assets and fixed interest, to the extent that low risk investors generally performed worse than medium/high risk investors. Whilst we are far from out of the woods, inflation does now seem to be falling across most of the world and, although most central banks remain relatively hawkish on policy, there is an industry consensus that interest rates may not need to go as high as once predicted...

Stocks featured:

Anglo American, Antofagasta, B&M, Glencore, Greggs, Next, Rio Tinto Group and Shell

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Santa rally curtailed by one-two punch from Fed and ECB

Tue, 20 Dec 2022 10:16:39 GMT

The week started well enough, with the publication of American data showing that the pace of inflation had decelerated more than expected in November. US petrol prices had fallen during the month, while food and rent inflation both moderated. Investors were jubilant all over the world. This was the long-awaited evidence that inflation had peaked, and markets seemed set for an easy run-in to the end of the year. The “Santa rally” was on.

Not for the first time this year, however, central bankers sent markets into a tailspin, although this time it was a one-two punch from the US Federal Reserve and, the following day, the European Central Bank. The Fed raised interest rates by 0.5% as expected, but the tone of Chairman Powell in the press conference afterwards was particularly aggressive towards inflation and unsympathetic to markets. Powell focused on the labour market in his comments, which is still growing robustly, rather than other, weaker aspects of the American economy. Not only did the Fed raise its expectations for where interest rates will end up, but the strong degree of unanimity from the members of the governing committee surprised investors. Moreover, the committee raised its expectations for the trajectory of inflation, confounding economic forecasters who had just witnessed the rate of inflation begin to decline...

Stocks featured:

Babcock International, LVMH, Nucor Corp, Steel Dynamics, Tesla, Twitter and US Steel

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Chinese authorities accelerate their departure from "Covid-zero" policies

Tue, 13 Dec 2022 11:56:45 GMT

Lacking the kind of economic data or central bank decisions that have moved asset prices recently, markets mostly drifted sideways or slightly lower during the week. As a result, most asset classes have been able to hang onto their recent gains. This rally has now lasted for two months, having been initially triggered by the expectation, subsequently proved correct, that central banks would slow the rate of increases in interest rates. That presumed a peak in the rate of inflation - which duly occurred, giving the rally yet more impetus...

Stocks featured:

Apple, Chevron Corp, Exxon Mobil Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Twitter

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Are we heading for a "Santa rally" in equities?

Tue, 06 Dec 2022 10:37:17 GMT

The markets were again driven by hopes of an easing in interest rate policy at the US Federal Reserve, as Fed Chairman Powell appeared to soften his stance in a speech in Washington DC last week. US government bonds had another good week. Their yields have been on a declining trend now for almost two months and, globally, other government bonds have mostly moved in lockstep with the US. Global stock markets were also willing recipients of the news. The S&P 500 is now down 17% for the year to date, but most of that decline has been caused by the technology sector. The more old-economy constituents of the Dow Jones Industrial Average are down only 6% for the year, not far off their European equivalents...

Stocks featured:

Apple, DoorDash, Eli Lilly & Co, Tesla and Twitter

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets continued to demonstrate resilience despite problems in China

Tue, 29 Nov 2022 11:03:45 GMT

Markets continued to demonstrate resilience last week despite an accumulation of problems in China which threatened to undermine sentiment. Along the way, investors were cheered by European business activity surveys that were significantly better than expected, leading to comments by some optimistic investment strategists that any recession is likely to be relatively shallow. This view may be coloured by the 20% rebound in markets from their recent lows, however, and a cohort of dismal economists were quick to emphasise that business activity is still shrinking. Though inflation appears to have peaked in the US, and is expected to have already peaked in Europe, it’s too early to say that consumers will start to spend again. For a start, they may not have the financial resources: higher living expenses, even if they are rising at a less rapid rate, are still negative for economic growth. Given our meagre experience of inflation over the past few decades, it’s difficult to say how much consumers have already been impacted by inflation and how much of that impact is still to be reflected in their behaviour...

Stocks featured:

Ant Group, Apple, Manchester United and Walt Disney

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets broadly manage to hold onto momentous gains

Tue, 22 Nov 2022 11:07:06 GMT

In a relatively light week for economic data and company updates, markets broadly managed to hold onto the momentous gains of the previous week. Coming so soon after last week’s relatively benign US inflation data, the week got off to a good start with a deceleration in US producer price inflation, which should ultimately feed through into lower inflation in the prices of goods for consumers. What investors really want to know, however, is whether the more positive outlook for inflation will influence governors at the US Federal Reserve into slowing the pace of increases in interest rates. Despite an unusually large number of governors speaking at conferences and in interviews during the week, investors were left with the feeling that opinions are still divided between those who prioritise defeating inflation at any cost, and those who are becoming more cognisant of an economic slowdown...

Stocks featured:

Alibaba Group, Cisco Systems, Hasbro, Mattel, Siemens and Target Corp.

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Relatively benign American inflation data triggers global market rally

Tue, 15 Nov 2022 12:09:14 GMT

Nearly all the price action in markets last week came in a burst of euphoric demand following the publication of relatively benign American inflation data. US inflation fell from 8.2% in September to 7.7% in October, with the details revealing that inflationary pressures were easing across the board: the pace of inflation decelerated in the property and service sectors between September and October, and there were outright declines in the cost of used cars, rent, clothing and household furnishings. One data-point does not constitute definitive evidence and, more broadly, current economic data confirms that a slowdown is underway but, nevertheless, this was enough to send markets into an epic rally. Expectations for interest rate rises in the US dropped like a stone, along with the safe-haven US dollar. US government bonds surged across the board, and five-year bonds enjoyed their biggest one-day gain in a decade. The S&P 500 stock market index had one of its best days since the start of the pandemic, rising by 5.5%. The technology-heavy Nasdaq index, which had been beaten down by the fear of rate rises, rocketed by over 7%. European stock markets surged in sympathy: the Euro Stoxx 50 index had gained over 3% by the end of the day and the UK-orientated FTSE 250 gained nearly 4%...

Stocks featured:

ASML Holding, Burberry, Disney, Hermes International, LVMH, Richemont and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mixed interest rate messages from US Federal Reserve leave investors wondering

Tue, 08 Nov 2022 12:34:19 GMT

Monetary policy and economic data were in the driving seat last week, with both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England scheduled to announce monetary policy decisions. The Fed raised the possibility of a slowdown in the pace of interest rate rises, adding new language to its statement on monetary policy to the effect that it would consider the cumulative impact of rate rises on the economy when setting rates. This was hardly the “pivot” towards more dovish monetary policy that markets were hoping for, but it was enough to unleash a rally. Unfortunately, the rally lasted all of half an hour, by which time Fed Chairman Powell’s press conference had squelched any optimism, saying that rates were actually likely to go higher than expected, even if they went higher in smaller increments...

Stocks featured:

Airbnb, Apple, GSK and Tesla

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Could markets resilience to bad news signal the end of bear market?

Tue, 01 Nov 2022 11:54:04 GMT

Stock markets ran the gauntlet this week of some weak financial performance from the technology industry, as well as disappointing economic data, but without sustaining much damage. In fact, the resilience of markets to bad news raises the possibility that the recent bottom could mark the end of the current bear market.

This hope is dependent on central banks softening the tone of their comments on interest rate rises, examples of which were in evidence twice during the week. The Bank of Canada increased rates by 0.5% rather than the 0.75% that markets had expected, and noted that past rate rises were beginning to affect household spending and housing markets. More importantly, the European Central Bank met expectations with a 0.75% rate rise but hinted that a slowdown in the pace of tightening is imminent with the comment that "substantial progress" has already been made towards tighter monetary policy.

Stocks featured:

Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Caterpillar, Coca-Cola, Mastercard, McDonald’s, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Unilever and Visa

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stock markets continue to build on their rally

Tue, 25 Oct 2022 12:41:23 GMT

Stock markets managed to build on their rally of the previous week as the flow of news turned from unremittingly bad to merely “mixed”, and the steady drumbeat of company profit warnings was occasionally drowned out by some surprisingly upbeat reports. Stock markets were even able to shrug off another dismal performance by bond markets, helped by a relatively steady week for the US dollar.

Stocks featured:

Netflix
LVMH
American Express
Apple
Microsoft
Alphabet
Amazon
Meta Platforms

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

UK government's mini-budget reversal restores some calm to financial markets

Tue, 18 Oct 2022 16:15:15 GMT

It was a turbulent week for markets and British politics. On 14th October Kwasi Kwarteng was sacked as the Chancellor meaning he was the second shortest serving Chancellor in British history at 38 days. He was replaced by Jeremy Hunt who swiftly announced a reversal of the majority of the tax cuts previously outlined, helping to bring nominal yields down on government bonds and restore some calm to financial markets. Following the mini-budget on 23rd September, where the prospect of a large surge in government borrowing on the back of the announced spending increases and tax cuts, the UK markets had been extremely volatile. Nominal yields on government bonds surged with the 30 year gilt yield crossing 5%, the pound fell and equity markets had seen high volatility. After being down just over 2% during the past week markets rebounded on first the rumour and then confirmation of Kwarteng’s sacking to finish 17th October broadly flat.

Stocks featured:

ASML, Goldman Sachs, Hargreaves Lansdown, Johnson & Johnson and Moneysupermarket

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US imposes strictest regulations yet on sales of computer chips to China

Tue, 11 Oct 2022 10:43:08 GMT

Stock markets started the week brightly enough, with a two-day rally as good as any since the start of the pandemic. But it was not to last, as OPEC dealt a blow to investors outside the oil sector, and to consumers battling inflation, by opting to cut oil production by two million barrels a day. This was enough to trigger a rally of nearly 10% in the price of oil. The decision came despite frantic lobbying by US officials and a visit by President Biden to Saudi Arabia in July. Some commentators viewed this as a weaponisation of oil prices amidst an energy power struggle between America and Saudi Arabia, and the US government described Saudi Arabia as having chosen to align itself with Russian interests.

Stocks featured:

Advanced Micro Devices, Imperial Brands, Intel Corp, Levi Strauss & Co and Samsung Electronics

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Furore over government's mini-budget still rippling through markets

Tue, 04 Oct 2022 10:01:54 GMT

It was a week of unremittingly bad news that sent stock and bond markets to new lows for the year. The week opened with the furore over the government’s mini-budget still rippling through markets. British banks withdrew mortgage offers in response to the volatile environment for interest rates unleashed by the mini-budget and, in an unusual sign of international frustration, the mini-budget drew criticism from the International Monetary Fund, US central bank officials and the US government.

Events reached a climax when the Bank of England stepped in to prop up the market for British government bonds. Having approved a plan to relinquish £80 billion of gilts just a few days previously, the Bank dramatically reversed direction with a commitment to purchase another £60 billion. A £140 billion U-turn does not happen without good reason, and it subsequently turned out that the collapse in gilts threatened the stability of pension funds worth about £1 trillion, which were faced with the prospect of having to sell assets in order to remain solvent. These sales would have further depressed asset prices, prompting another loss of confidence in the gilt market and a potential downward spiral in British assets. The Bank’s intervention did the job, stabilising the gilt market and helping the pound to recover most of its lost ground. The fact remains, however, that the enormous UK pension industry has somehow managed to commit itself to strategies that could, under admittedly very unusual conditions, prompt a vicious circle of selling.

Stocks featured:

Apple, BHP Group, Boohoo Group, H&M, Next, Nike, Porsche and Tesla

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

British government drops "fiscal bomb" on already torrid markets

Tue, 27 Sep 2022 10:15:42 GMT

Markets were already enduring a torrid time when the British government dropped its fiscal bomb on Friday. Earlier in the week, the US Federal Reserve had raised rates by 0.75% as expected, but there was no let-up in the hawkish tone as the Fed simultaneously cut its growth forecast and lifted its own expectations for future interest rates. Once again, the Fed is signalling that it is ready to tolerate a recession in order to combat inflation. This has been the message for a while, but markets are now repricing how far the Fed will go, and how deep any recession might be.

Stocks featured:

Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse, Ford Motor Co., JD Sports Fashion and Unicredit

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bad US inflation data wipes out four-day rally

Tue, 20 Sep 2022 09:34:01 GMT

Bad inflation data from the US wiped out a promising, four-day rally with such violence that new lows for the year are looming for many assets. US inflation fell to 8.3% in August from 8.5% in July, a decline to be fair, but not the decline the market was looking for. In fact, aside from the expected moderation in food and fuel prices, there were hefty gains in goods and services as diverse as new cars and trucks, vehicle repair, dental charges and hospital services. Some optimists had been hoping for signs that inflation would soon roll over: the hope was margins would fall from their current, unsustainable levels as supply chains normalise; the strong dollar and lower inflation outside the US, especially in China, would wear down import prices; rent inflation would follow the sharp drop in house prices and rents downwards, and a gradual moderation in wage gains would reduce inflation across an array of services that are sensitive to labour costs. While few doubt the logic of this reasoning, which applies both in the US and elsewhere, the inflation figures pushed out the date that this normalisation will commence. In the short-term, meanwhile, any chance of a 0.5% hike at this week’s Federal Reserve meeting has gone.

Stocks featured:

Amazon, Apple, Fedex Corp, Starbucks and Uniper

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Global markets break losing streak with impressive rallies

Tue, 13 Sep 2022 09:07:58 GMT

Stock markets broke their losing streak with impressive rallies across-the-board globally, despite more tough talk by central bankers and the absence of a recovery in bond markets. European stock markets recovered all their losses caused by last week’s total suspension of natural gas supplies from Russia to Europe and, counterintuitively, European gas prices have actually declined by nearly 50% since then. American petrol prices, meanwhile, fell to their lowest levels of the past six months.

Stocks featured:

Alphabet (Google), Apple and Oracle

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Governments hooked on spending as central bankers try to reign it in

Tue, 06 Sep 2022 10:22:30 GMT

Capital markets continued their decline in the wake of the US Federal Reserve chairman’s speech of the previous week, with the pain spreading across a wide range of asset classes. US stockmarkets failed to muster any kind of rally but, at least, they are still well above the lows reached in June. European stockmarkets, on the other hand, are retesting their lows of the year, following news that Gazprom had ceased natural gas supplies to Germany entirely. This was not wholly unexpected, but it does add to the crisis in energy markets and to the threat of higher inflation for longer. The realisation that energy bills are going to spiral upwards yet again has governments in Europe rushing to abandon free markets and impose fixed price-regimes. The implied subsidies are enormous - £130 billion in the UK if Prime Minister Truss’ new plan gets the go-ahead, equivalent to about one third of total government spending on the pandemic. European governments meet at the end of the week to outline their latest thinking, but the current range of aid packages already amounts to EUR375 billion. With such large numbers at stake, windfall taxes on the utility sector are very much on the agenda.

Stocks featured:

Addentax Group Corp, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co, Dell Technologies, Pernod Ricard, Polestar Automotive Holdings, Seagate Technology Holdings and Volvo

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

S&P 500 falls 4% in reaction to Federal Reserve Chairman's speech

Tue, 30 Aug 2022 11:43:34 GMT

There was a lot to digest after a speech by the US Federal Reserve Chairman at a conference sent stock markets into a tailspin, but it was less the contents of the speech than the reaction of the markets that raised questions. For several months, now, central bankers in the western world have been explicit about prioritising inflation over economic growth. Chairman Powell’s speech made this same point, although perhaps with a tone of exasperation that had been missing before. Chairman Powell made it clear that the decision on whether to raise rates by a further 0.75% next month, or to drop to 0.5%, had not yet been made, but he also played down the idea that the softer recent inflation numbers would justify any change in course. This was exactly in line with comments he made in June that the Fed would need to see a clear run of lower monthly inflation data for it to change course.

Stocks featured:

Dell Technologies, Nvidia, Porsche and Salesforce

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Global markets hit the buffers after improbable two-month rally

Tue, 23 Aug 2022 10:29:20 GMT

Markets hit the buffers this week following two months in which they had mounted an improbable rally in the face of deteriorating economic data. It took only a few trading days for continental European stock markets to give back a third of the gains accumulated during the rally. American markets followed Europe down, with the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index leading the way, albeit after an impressive 23% rise from trough to peak. Once again, the FTSE 100 was the best performer, sustained by its unique mix of global pharmaceutical, mining, banking and energy companies. Unfortunately, the same did not apply to the more UK-focused FTSE 250, which suffered a 4.3% decline on the week. Bond markets resumed their downward spiral with US 10-year government bond yields back above 3% and 10-year gilt yields surging back towards their highs of the year. The US dollar resumed its safe-haven status, with the pound and euro dropping to new lows for the year. As you were, then.

Stocks featured:

Bed, Bath & Beyond, BHP Group, Home Depot and Walmart

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Analysts call end of bear market as US indices rally for second month

Tue, 16 Aug 2022 09:52:32 GMT

Stock markets managed another week of gains, extending the rally in American indices to two months. This has encouraged a hint of euphoria to develop, which has been reflected in the rise of cryptocurrencies, meme stocks and, of course, the technology sector favourites. Judged by the strength and breadth of the rally, and the fact that a lot of bad news has been absorbed on the way up, some analysts are calling this the end of the bear market. Their optimism was somewhat confirmed last week when investors witnessed a rare decline in US inflation data for the month of July. This was seized on as evidence that inflation has now peaked, enabling the rally in asset prices to continue. In another positive development, a survey of US consumer confidence showed a surprisingly strong uptick and bounced off its readings of the previous few months, which had been the lowest in the survey’s 70-year history. Bad news was shrugged off, such as the startlingly poor business activity surveys for the Mid-West and East Coast, as US stocks produced an especially strong week. The S&P 500 index has now recouped more than half its declines since the year began.

Stocks featured:

GlaxoSmithKline, Sanofi, Saudi Aramco, Six Flags Entertainment and Walt Disney Co.

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stock and bond markets rise, overcoming worrisome news about inflation

Tue, 02 Aug 2022 15:18:58 GMT

It was another week in which stock and bond markets rose, overcoming worrisome news about inflation’s impact on the economy. The case for bonds is straightforward: the robustness with which central bankers are hiking rates has persuaded bond investors that they can bring inflation under control, even if it means causing a recession. Recessions are not necessarily bad for bonds and, after a historically big sell-off, valuations are much more attractive. The case for stock markets is not so simple: higher bond valuations do make equities more attractive by comparison, but equities have still to run the gauntlet of further inflation and interest rate rises, their combined impact on consumer spending and, more importantly, on corporate profits. It was remarkable that equities managed to continue their rally of the past month because the week’s data failed to offer much support in these respects.

Stocks featured:

Apple
Amazon
Samsung Electronics
Meta Platforms
Shopify

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stock markets hold their ground against another week of bad news

Tue, 26 Jul 2022 10:15:47 GMT

Stock markets showed impressive, some would say heroic, resilience in the face of another week of largely bad news. Europe was again at the centre of a geopolitical maelstrom, as fears grew that the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, which had been closed for maintenance, might not re-open. Gazprom, the pipeline’s operator, certainly gave that impression when it invoked force majeure clauses in its contracts with European buyers. There were even rumours that European Union officials had begun to plan for voluntary rationing, with a 15% cut in natural gas usage being proposed to member states. As the week went on, Gazprom did eventually resume supplies, but at a much lower rate of flow, and public remarks by Russian President Putin made it clear that the pipeline will remain a geopolitical hot potato.

Stocks featured:

IBM
Netflix
Snapchat
Meta Platforms
Alphabet
Verizon Communications
AT&T
Walmart

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets buffeted by fears of inflation and recession

Tue, 19 Jul 2022 10:34:05 GMT

Stock markets managed to end the week roughly flat, despite the announcement of dreadful inflation data in the US that threatened to derail the current, month-long bounce. There was little to be positive about in the data: US inflation leapt to 9.1% in June from 8.6% in the previous month, far surpassing most expectations. Fuel and food did most of the damage but, excluding these more-volatile components, the so-called "core" rate of inflation also beat expectations as rent and second-hand car prices accelerated again. The only silver lining was that core inflation continued to fall from its peak in March.

Stocks featured:

Apple, Burberry Group, Citigroup, JP Morgan Chase and Volkswagen

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US tech sector leads equity markets bounce

Tue, 12 Jul 2022 09:41:27 GMT

A bounce in equity markets had been overdue, and was duly delivered, with the US technology sector leading the way. Investors were initially somewhat cheered by an American service industry survey that showed only a slight reduction in activity from the previous month, bucking the trend from other nations for much larger declines. More importantly, the minutes of the US Federal Reserve’s last meeting did not derail the rally, despite demonstrating plenty of determination to fight inflation combined with precious little concern for the weakening economy. Thanks to recent downward revisions to economic data, it’s possible that America is already in recession, but the Fed’s minutes seemed to emanate from a different dimension, stating that “overall economic activity appeared to have picked up”. The minutes referred to inflation as being “more persistent than they had previously anticipated”, ignoring the recent reduction in so-called “core” inflation, which strips out less-controllable items such as food and energy. In summary, there were suspicions that the Fed may have cherry-picked data to support its current, aggressively anti-inflation policy. But that stance seems to please equity markets, which continued their rally on the day the minutes were published, though bond markets reversed their recent strong run.

Stocks featured:

ASML, EDF, JPMorgan, Nikon, Tesla and Twitter

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Fear over interest rates shifts towards fear of recession

Tue, 05 Jul 2022 09:52:14 GMT

It was a week in which market behaviour began to shift away from fear of interest rates rises towards fear of recession. This was most evident in a recovery in government bond markets where, at the short maturities that most clearly reflect the expected path of interest rates, a dramatic shift could be seen. In the blink of an eye, seemingly, investors have shifted from being convinced that the US Federal Reserve will do multiple rate-rises, to being convinced that softening global growth will soon translate into weaker inflation, putting the Fed on hold. Markets are even now pricing in 0.75% in rate cuts in 2023. Bond values were driven upwards by a series of poor economic data, including more declines in consumer confidence around the developed world and an American survey of manufacturers that indicated a rapid decline in activity.

Stocks featured:

Airbus, Boeing, Carnival Corp and Micron Technology

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stock markets vulnerable to another correction

Tue, 28 Jun 2022 10:45:55 GMT

The previous week’s rally in US government bond markets, that may have heralded a change in sentiment towards the Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation, was repeated around the world. British government bonds followed their US brethren upwards after the release of UK inflation data that showed a surprising decline in so-called core inflation, which excludes more volatile components such as food and fuel. Eurozone sovereign bonds then had their own rally after the release of business activity surveys for the Eurozone that indicated a sharp slowdown in growth and, therefore, in inflationary pressures.

Stocks featured:

Asos, Boohoo Group, Deutsche Bank, Li Auto, Nio, Tesla, XPeng and Zalando

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Fed issues biggest rate hike in 30 years

Tue, 21 Jun 2022 12:26:48 GMT

The bad news is that stock markets slipped again last week. The good news is that things could have been much worse, with a fairly modest move down despite the US Federal Reserve raising rates by 0.75%, its biggest hike in 30 years. The Fed is following through on tough talk over the past few weeks, and Chairman Powell made it clear, repeatedly, that the Fed won’t stop hiking until it sees a clear run of lower monthly inflation data. The 0.75% move had been widely leaked in what appeared to be a choreographed media strategy. Nevertheless, it did the job, and the US government bond market actually had a good week, hinting that perhaps the US central bank has regained some of its lost credibility.

Stocks featured:

Apple, Halfords Group, Kroger, Starbucks Corporation and Tesla

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Inflation and interest rates drive capital markets lower

Tue, 14 Jun 2022 09:52:40 GMT

Movements in capital markets are increasingly being driven by two economic factors, inflation and interest rates, that are beyond the ability of individual investors to control. While a particular company’s prospects still matter, as evidenced by the impact of recent profits warnings in the retail sector, changes in portfolio values are more likely to reflect the latest news on rising prices, the reactions of central banks through interest rate policy, its likely effect on the economy and, ultimately, on corporate profits.

Stocks featured:

Exxon Mobil Corp, Intel Corporation, Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) and Target Corp

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stagflation fears intensify as US corporate chieftains issue grim forecasts

Tue, 07 Jun 2022 10:10:12 GMT

Skittish stock markets struggled to maintain the positive momentum of the previous week and, following a barrage of bad news, it’s beginning to look like the previous week may have been the aberration. The week started with an outsized jump in Eurozone inflation in May, to 8.1%, and the fact that the announcement of this data coincided with the announcement of the European Union’s embargo on Russian oil was not helpful. It also didn’t help that a bunch of American corporate chieftains ambushed markets with dire warnings about the state of the economy. Among them was the much-respected Chief Executive of JP Morgan Chase & Co, who warned of an impending economic "hurricane". Fears of stagflation intensified, stock markets struggled for a couple of days and investors fled to the safe haven of the US Dollar.

Stocks featured:

Didi Global, HP, JP Morgan Chase & Co, Salesforce, Target, Tesla, Twitter and Walmart

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Bonds across the globe stage impressive rally

Tue, 31 May 2022 11:28:07 GMT

Having been rocked by a profit warning from retailing giant Walmart in the previous week, stockmarkets shrugged off the fear of recession and managed an impressive rally. America led the way, with the major indices there bouncing nearly 10% off their recent lows. European markets had already been outperforming but, nevertheless, enjoyed the additional tailwind. Indeed, it was a week in which just about everything was up. Even bond markets staged a recovery: corporate bonds across the globe had their first positive month in nearly a year, and government bonds had their best month since the start of the year.

Stocks featured:

Apple
Dollar Tree
The Gap
Southwest
JetBlue
Tesla
Twitter

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US company profits warnings send stock markets into a tailspin

Tue, 24 May 2022 10:47:44 GMT

The week started promisingly enough, with the most hawkish comments yet from the US central bank failing to disrupt equity, bond or currency markets. In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, Federal Reserve chairman Powell said something that central bankers have not had to say for decades: that the Fed intends to raise rates until they slow economic growth, and that they are prepared to risk higher unemployment. He even raised the prospect of faster, more aggressive interest rate rises than the half-percent a month currently expected. That markets were unfazed by his comments was a rare moment of stability, but it was not to last...

Stocks featured:

Burberry Group, Cisco Systems, Richemont, Snap, Target Corp and Walmart

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US monthly inflation data inflicts further shock on markets

Tue, 17 May 2022 11:38:25 GMT

UK and continental European stockmarkets managed to bounce last week, but it was cold comfort after the declines of the last month or so. American markets could not follow suit, and weren’t helped by another shock from the monthly US inflation data. Nothing has yet appeared to alter the picture of persistent inflation and slowing economic growth. In recent weeks, economists have taken a hatchet to their US economic growth forecasts, having already done that for their European forecasts earlier in the year.

Stocks featured:

Apple, Goldman Sachs, Saudi Aramco, Sunac China Holdings, Tesla and Twitter

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

S&P 500 records fifth consecutive week of negative performance

Tue, 10 May 2022 11:13:20 GMT

Summary:

The past week saw the US Federal Reserve (Fed) do exactly as markets expected as it increased its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points (to a range of 0.75% - 1.0%), constituting the biggest single increase in US borrowing costs since the year 2000. The Fed also announced plans to reduce its gargantuan $9 trillion balance sheet. In June, July and August, The Central Bank plans to reduce its stock of Treasury Securities and Mortgage Backed Securities by a combined total of $47.5 billion per month, then from September onward by a combined total of $95 billion per month.

Stocks featured:

Airbnb, Lyft, Shopify, Uber and Under Armour

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stock market volatility back to its post-pandemic peak

Tue, 03 May 2022 10:46:49 GMT

Volatility in stock markets was back to its post-pandemic peak last week, with the mighty S&P 500, the world’s largest stockmarket index by value, falling by 2.8% on Tuesday, only to rise by 2.5% on Thursday, before selling off 3.6% on Friday. So much of the value of the S&P 500 is now concentrated in a few technology behemoths that their fate determines its fate. Thursday’s rebound had much to do with unexpectedly strong results from Meta Platforms (formerly Facebook) amongst others, and Friday’s sell-off appeared to have been triggered by disappointing results from Alphabet and Amazon, combined perhaps with the negative outlook expressed by Apple’s management. However, these problems were mainly related to the pandemic’s distortion of supply and demand. Alphabet reported a deterioration in demand from customers in Europe, but this should be seen in the context of a quarter in which Alphabet’s revenues still grew at a 20% rate.

Stocks featured:

Amazon.com, Apple, Alphabet, Chevron Corporation, Exxon Mobil Corp, Meta Plaforms, Robinhood Markets and Twitter

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Another wave of panic in bond markets

Tue, 26 Apr 2022 11:54:47 GMT

A lacklustre week for stock markets was dwarfed by another wave of panic in bond markets, as the US central bank turned up the volume on its inflation-fighting rhetoric. A two-year US government bond now yields about 2.7%, and yields have only been higher than that once since before the Credit Crunch. US government bonds have now had their worst start to a year since the early 1970s. Bond markets crumpled under the onslaught from federal reserve officials: one governor advocated for a rate rise of 0.75% at the next meeting, and several others were heard to endorse the idea of 0.5%. This was subsequently reiterated by the Federal Reserve's Chairman, who also upset markets by describing the American labour market as being "unsustainably hot".

Stocks featured:

Netflix, Tesla and Walt Disney Co

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Soaring fuel prices cause US inflation to hit highest rate for 40 years

Tue, 12 Apr 2022 10:36:37 GMT

Stock markets initially threatened to continue their advance, before retreating to end the week lower. The initial setback was the US Federal Reserve or, more specifically, the written minutes of a Federal Reserve meeting that took place four weeks ago. Such is the scrutiny being applied to the change in interest rates by the Fed that the market was falling even before the minutes were published, and continued to fall afterwards even though they merely confirmed what was telegraphed at the meeting itself. Perhaps investors needed to see it in writing, such is the poor state of the Fed’s credibility. The technology- heavy Nasdaq Composite Index managed to decline by 8% from peak to trough during the week, and most equity indexes around the world followed to different degrees. These market characteristics were reminiscent of the start of the year, when a violent rotation sent growth stocks tumbling and stodgy, value stocks in hitherto unfashionable sectors soaring. The latter description fits the FTSE 100 very nicely, and it managed a 1% gain for the week, supported by banks, oil companies and pharmaceuticals.

Stocks featured:

Berkshire Hathaway, Hewlett Packard, JD.com, Occidental Petroleum and Volkswagen

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

European markets face further volatility before inflation subsides

Tue, 05 Apr 2022 10:41:55 GMT

Stock markets largely completed their recovery from the Ukraine-war sell-off last week. However, not all markets are equal,

with the very large companies comprising the S&P 500 stock market index and the FTSE 100 comfortably beating the

performance of their continental European peers, and with smaller and mid-sized companies languishing everywhere. In the

Far East, Japan’s Nikkei index has fared relatively well, and joins the lucky group of blue-chip indices which are down only a few

percentage points for the year to date.

Stocks featured:

Apple, Tesla and Twitter

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

American technology stock splits greeted with extremely outsized responses

Tue, 29 Mar 2022 12:42:55 GMT

Stock markets continued to enjoy the post-Ukraine rally last week, with notable enthusiasm for all things American and, especially, American technology stocks. Also coming back into favour are some speculative favourites, including cryptocurrencies. Recent announcements of stock splits by American technology companies have been greeted with extremely outsized responses, despite the fact that they generate zero economic value to shareholders. Alphabet (Google) enjoyed a $130 billion boost to its market value on the day of the announcement, Amazon saw an $80 billion boost for its stock split and, most recently, Tesla an $84 billion boost. Perhaps this simply reflects the fact that American retail buyers still have plenty of firepower, as they have been a constant positive for markets since the start of the year, even continuing to pour money in throughout the Ukraine crisis. The other constant positive has been stock buybacks by American companies, which are running at all-time highs. Unfortunately for investors, while these factors may support valuations for a while, neither of them contributes to economic growth or the enlargement of corporate earnings. At least the earnings expectations for technology companies have ticked up recently while, for the broader US market, they have remained flat over the last six months.

Stocks featured:

Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Ford Motor Company, Nikola Corp, NVIDIA Corporation and Tesla

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US markets leap ahead as investors recovered appetite for growth stocks

Tue, 22 Mar 2022 11:38:05 GMT

Stock markets largely completed their recovery from the trauma induced by the conflict in Ukraine last week, and European markets are back to within 5-6% of their pre-war levels. This amount is approximately equal to a year’s return on an equity index, and seems reasonable given the war’s implications for energy consumption and inflation. US markets leapt ahead last week, especially the technology sector, as investors recovered some of their appetite for growth stocks. This also seems reasonable, given America’s distance from the conflict, its relative self-sufficiency in energy and the enormous increase in wealth its citizens have enjoyed during the pandemic. Private sector output in the US is 3.6% above its pre-pandemic level whereas, in the UK for example, it remains 3.5% below. That does not mean that the US is immune to economic wobbles, just that it will probably remain a relative safe haven when compared with other developed-world countries.

Stocks featured:

Alibaba and Saudi Aramco

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Chinese stock market suffers several disasters in rapid succession

Tue, 15 Mar 2022 11:54:32 GMT

European stock markets recovered some poise during the week, rallying off their Ukraine-war lows, and moving more into line with their American peers. As concerns surrounding the conflict receded, however, fear of inflation increased, prompting bond markets to plumb new lows for the year. This latest move can be attributed partly to the war, which has unleashed a spike in commodity prices, and partly to the latest wave of Covid cases in China, which has prompted the authorities to lock down cities and, in one case, an entire province. These lockdowns threaten to exacerbate supply-chain blockages, boosting production-line inflation in China just after it had begun to decline. Ultimately, this could feed through into more persistent consumer price inflation in the western world.

Stocks featured:

Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Merck & Co, Pfizer, Toyota, Tsingshan Holding Group and Wolkswagen

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stock markets in panic mode

Tue, 08 Mar 2022 11:00:42 GMT

Stock markets had their worst week since the depths of the pandemic, with European equity indices particularly hard hit. The blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 index fell over 10% during the week, and entered official bear-market territory (meaning that a decline of at least 20% from peak to trough has now taken place). It is also now below the levels reached during a brief rally in 2015. US equities have been relatively resilient and, despite declining by 3-4%, ended the week above their year-to-date lows. Being more geographically removed, it seems that US equities are less perturbed by the direct consequences of the invasion itself, but are nevertheless responding negatively to the threat of higher near-term inflation.

Stocks featured:

Grab Holdings, Shell and Volkswagen

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Russian assets in a Chernobyl-sized meltdown

Tue, 01 Mar 2022 11:54:40 GMT

Stock markets recovered some poise during the week, but only after having fallen to new lows for the year to date in most regions. The extent of poor performance was roughly proportional to the geographical proximity to Ukraine, with the Euro Stoxx 50 blue-chip index falling 5% early in the week, before recovering to end the week down only 1.5%. The FTSE 100, which had been largely immune to inflation, interest rates or war, suffered its worst day since the start of the pandemic, declining nearly 4%. But it subsequently rallied by nearly the same amount, to end the week down only half a percent. These rallies were all the more remarkable for occurring while the sanctions applied by the West grew to unheard-of proportions, even targeting Russia’s access to the payment system that holds all the world’s banks together. With Russian assets in a Chernobyl-sized meltdown, it’s no wonder Putin was tempted to play the nuclear card, but even this could not derail the rally.

Stocks featured:

Alibaba, Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, BlackRock, Blackstone and Vanguard Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ukraine standoff drives rush to safe havens

Tue, 22 Feb 2022 12:10:55 GMT

The stand-off in Ukraine produced a conventional rush for safe havens last week, with bond markets benefiting across the whole spectrum from the additional demand and stock markets wobbling. Precious metals were among the few positive sectors within equity markets and gold, in particular, is now back to its highs of the past year. Traders’ screens were mostly red, however, with travel and leisure, banks and, surprisingly, oil and gas companies among the biggest losers. It would seem that investor fear trumped the ability of banks and oil companies to escape the ravages of inflation, Covid and war, or that investors were taking profits on the most positive performers in their portfolios for the year to date.

Stocks featured:

Meta Platforms
Shopify
Paramount Global
AMC Networks

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The mood darkens as US inflation defies expectations and surges to 40 year-high

Tue, 15 Feb 2022 11:29:15 GMT

Things were looking up at the beginning of the week, with the previous week’s blockbuster US employment report having given stock markets a confidence boost. By mid-week, with a bounce well and truly underway, it looked like markets might even be making an attempt to reclaim their previous highs. The mood darkened, however, after the US inflation report on Thursday, which showed that inflation had once again outstripped most forecasters’ expectations and was running at its highest level for 40 years. Moreover, the report confirmed that inflation is now spreading from pandemic-affected goods to the broader service economy. Service sector prices had their biggest annual increase in 30 years. As expected, higher house prices are also now feeding into higher rental costs and, as housing is the biggest component of the inflation calculation, its impact is likely to be sustained.

Stocks featured:

Uber Technologies
Lyft
Under Armour
Walt Disney Co

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A one-two punch of central bank meetings

Tue, 08 Feb 2022 11:05:50 GMT

The action switched back from equity to bond markets last week, as a one-two punch of central bank meetings reinforced the hawkish change in monetary policies. This was then followed by a positive shock in key US employment data that sent bond yields spiralling upwards. First up was the Bank of England, which raised rates - as expected - but also tried to send a relatively dovish message, reinforced by the Governor’s plea to markets to “not get carried away”. This messaging strategy didn’t work, mainly because the composition of views and votes on the bank’s Monetary Policy Committee shifted massively towards faster and bigger rate rises. In fact, four of the committee’s nine members had voted for a half-percentage point rate-rise, arguing that it was justified by the acceleration in wages at the turn of the year, and by the recent rise in the public’s inflation expectations. The committee also agreed unanimously to reduce the bank’s holdings of bonds, signifying the change from quantitative easing to quantitative tightening.

Stocks featured:

Amazon
Meta Platforms
Paypal
Spotify Technology

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stock markets reclaim some lost ground

Tue, 01 Feb 2022 13:02:20 GMT

Enthusiasts for buying the dip were finally rewarded this week, as stock markets reclaimed some of their lost ground since the beginning of the year. The bounce was broad-based, with the technology sector, smaller-companies and cryptocurrencies all participating to varying degrees. Markets eventually overcame a wobble caused by the US Federal Reserve’s monthly press conference, at which Chairman Powell talked up the possibility of further interest rate rises and confirmed the central bank’s new-found focus on inflation.

Stocks featured:

Caterpillar, Chevron Corp, GlaxoSmithKline, Shell, Tesla, Unilever and Vodafone

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Extreme volatility returns to equity markets

Tue, 25 Jan 2022 12:19:19 GMT

Bond market investors were, no doubt, delighted to pass the baton of extreme volatility to equity markets last week, but the

theme continues to be the same: markets themselves are making the headlines, and not in a good way. The technology sector

has taken a pummelling, and the Nasdaq Composite index came within a hair’s breadth of closing below its level of a year ago.

All the sound and fury of the preceding 12 months now signifies nothing. The same is true of the Japanese stock market: a

volatile last 12 months saw, at one point, a rally in the Nikkei 225 index of 13.5%, which has now all been given back. Even the

more-stately Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen to a level last seen in April last year.

Stocks featured:

Ganfeng Lithium
Netflix

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

US government bond yields reach new pandemic-era highs

Tue, 18 Jan 2022 11:33:38 GMT

Once again, the excitement was in bond markets with US government bond yields making new pandemic-era highs. The action was most intense at shorter-term maturities, which are now pricing in four rate rises in the next 12 months. Coming alongside hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve governors, the moves anticipate that containing inflation will require more concerted action on rates, and sooner. The narrative that inflation would be temporary, spun by central bankers for much of the last year, now lies trampled in the dust.

Stocks featured:

EDF, JP Morgan, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Toyota Motor Corp and Volkswagen Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A festive roller coaster ride for stock and bond markets

Tue, 11 Jan 2022 11:05:19 GMT

Volatility was the name of the game over the festive season, with both stock and bond markets on roller coaster journeys. In truth, some drama is probably to be expected given the size of the upward moves in asset prices since the pandemic started. Stock markets in particular had been unexpectedly calm given a quadrupling of the rate of inflation, a crisis in the Chinese property market, and continued waves of the pandemic undermining the high hopes for vaccination programmes.

Stocks featured:

Amazon.com

Ford Motor Company

Rivian Automotive

Tesla

Toyota Motor Corp

Volkswagen Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Accumulation of negatives halt post-Omicron resurgence

Tue, 21 Dec 2021 09:25:21 GMT

Hopes for a quiet end to the year for equity markets were upended by an accumulation of negatives that put an end to the post-Omicron resurgence. The culprits included Omicron itself, central banks plus a senator from West Virginia. The week started on a sour note when Sinovac, the Chinese Covid vaccine, was found to be relatively ineffective against Omicron – a result that has been reinforced by subsequent tests. This makes it very unlikely that China would be able to alter its zero-tolerance approach to Covid even if it wanted to, and increases the likelihood of Chinese factory closures, further global supply chain blockages and persistent inflation. Only the previous day, producer-price inflation in the US had risen to a record high for the eighth month in a row.

Stocks featured:

Airbnb

BNP Paribas

Expedia Group

Nike

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Stock markets rebound solidly from initial Omicron sell-off

Tue, 14 Dec 2021 11:04:37 GMT

Stock markets completed a fairly solid rebound from the initial Omicron sell-off, but it’s hard to pay much attention to recent performance with so much uncertainty ahead. Omicron is so infectious that, by the end of the next week, its likely trajectory in some countries should be fairly well-established. Although Omicron cases may be milder than previous variants on average, hospitals may still be overwhelmed if Omicron spreads so quickly that even a low rate of hospitalisation generates large numbers of admissions.

Stocks featured:

Amazon, Daimler Truck Holding, Evergrande, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Twitter

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Are equity markets entering a new phase?

Tue, 07 Dec 2021 12:15:40 GMT

Markets were pulled from pillar to post as the forces of Covid and inflation gave battle to investor enthusiasm for buying the dips. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell tempted fate early in the week by announcing an acceleration in the Fed's plan to wind down its $120 billion-a-month asset purchases, when investors were expecting his tone to have softened in the face of the Omicron variant. In the space of a few weeks the Fed has gone from dismissing inflation as being "transitory" to inflation being its main concern. Powell even refused to admit that an Omicron-induced lockdown would reduce inflationary pressures, saying that it merely "increased uncertainty for inflation". As a result, investors now face a hitherto unanticipated scenario where new lockdowns depress growth but, unlike over the past fifteen years, monetary policy actually becomes more rigid.

Stocks featured:

AstraZeneca, Didi Global, Hermes International, Moderna, Pfizer and Universal Music Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Omicron variant sparks worst daily declines in over a year

Tue, 30 Nov 2021 10:44:25 GMT

Stock market volumes were already thin when news emerged of the Omicron variant, on account of the Thanksgiving holiday in America, exacerbating the sell-off and causing the worst daily decline in more than a year. The European blue-chip Euro Stoxx 50 index fell back to earth with a thud, falling 4% in a day, though the real wonder was how it had kept rising at all given recent European Covid statistics. Having enjoyed a 10% run-up in recent weeks, this index is now back at the levels seen in June. It was a similar story with most stock market indices globally, which gave up several months of gains in a day. The Nikkei continued on its remarkable roller coaster ride, dropping 6% to levels last seen in January. Over the past few months, it has enjoyed a 14% rally, followed by a 9% fall, followed by an 8% rally and now this latest decline, as hopes for the new government’s stimulus programme have fought it out with disappointing economic data. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite index again bucked the trend, and had made back most of its losses by the end of the week, as investors anticipated another pandemic bonanza for online businesses.

Stocks featured:

Bank of America Corp., DiDi Global Inc., Alphabet Inc., Moderna Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Uber Technologies Inc.

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Nasdaq Composite index reaches all-time high

Tue, 23 Nov 2021 10:12:34 GMT

Following hot on the heels of last week’s rampant inflation data, US Federal Reserve governors were queuing up to signal a faster withdrawal from the Fed’s $120 billion a month bond-buying programme. The constant drumbeat from one governor after another, including the Fed’s vice-chairman, took a little of the shine off US stocks but ensures that no investor will be surprised when the news is formally announced. The Dow Jones Industrial Average joined the FTSE 100 in being down on the week, and both have fallen about 2% from their recent highs. The technology heavy Nasdaq Composite index has been going in the opposite direction, however...

Stocks featured:

China Telecom Corporation

Cisco Systems

InPost

Macy's

Merck & Co.

Pfizer

Rivian Automotive

Walmart

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Is the age of the conglomerate over?

Tue, 16 Nov 2021 11:28:04 GMT

Bond markets remained in a feverish state last week, after inflation data again suggested that central bankers are wrong about the risk of rising inflation. US inflation rose to 6.2% in October, its highest level in 30 years. One has to go back to the inflationary era of the 1970s and early 1980s to find a period when inflation was consistently above its current levels. With the prices of cars, rent, furnishings, hospital services and recreation all rampant, it is likely to be at least several months before US inflation recedes. And that forecast relies on a resolution of the many issues dogging supply chains. All these factors increase the risk that consumers begin to anticipate higher inflation, bringing purchases forwards and demanding higher wages to compensate. Few economic forecasters have this as their most likely scenario yet, but several are highlighting the risk.

Stocks featured:

General Electric Company, Johnson & Johnson, Marks & Spencer Group, Rivian Automotive Inc, Tencent Holdings and Toshiba Corp

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Equities continue their amazing streak

Tue, 09 Nov 2021 10:56:04 GMT

It has become quite common this year for stock markets to reach new all-time highs, and to do so without significant corrections along the way. This pattern was very much in evidence last week, as equities continued their amazing streak following October’s blip. The S&P 500 index rose to an all-time high for the seventh day in a row, and has broken so many records for undiluted optimism this year that market commentators have mostly given up highlighting them. Continental European stock markets were just as bullish, with the benchmark Euro Stoxx 50 index reaching new post-credit crunch highs for seven straight days. While most equity indices in the developed world have fared well over the past month, some have been more equal than others: UK equities have risen, but still significantly lag their pre-pandemic levels. The US stock market is now close to its all-time high in relative performance against the UK, and is trading at a 40% valuation premium, while European stock markets are trading at a 20% premium to the UK, a new post-referendum high.

Stocks featured:

Airbnb, Berkeley Group, Moderna, Peloton Interactive, Taylor Wimpey and Tesla

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Credibility of central bankers teetering on the brink

Tue, 02 Nov 2021 11:16:54 GMT

Having been a seismic event in capital markets, we should not be surprised that the pandemic continues to deliver aftershocks. It was the turn of bond markets last week, with gut-wrenching rises in interest rate expectations all around the world. Such was the unstoppable momentum that, at one point, investors were able to observe - in real time - the President of the European Central Bank explaining at length why the ECB would not be raising rates anytime soon while, simultaneously, Eurozone bond yields rocketed into orbit. It was like a visit to the Hall of Mirrors.

Stocks featured:

Amazon, Apple, BBVA, BNP Paribas, Ford Motor Co, Nomura and Volvo Cars

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Persistent inflation becoming an inconvenient truth

Tue, 26 Oct 2021 11:05:25 GMT

Investors continued to look on the bright side last week but, with persistent inflation becoming an inconvenient truth, it's more the case that every silver lining is now accompanied by a cloud. A new all-time high for the US stock market was only momentarily punctured after the US central bank's Chairman Powell admitted he had been wrong about inflation. "The risks are clearly now to longer and more persistent bottlenecks, and thus to higher inflation" he said and, though he declined to change policy guidance, the change in tone is clear. Bond markets had already arrived at this conclusion, and have been bidding up the prospects for early rate rises for several weeks.

Stocks featured:

Alcoa, Apple, Facebook, Intel Corp and Trump Media & Technology Group

To find out more about the investment management services offered by Walker Crips, please visit our website:

https://www.walkercrips.co.uk/

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Cognitive dissonance very much in evidence

Tue, 19 Oct 2021 11:11:05 GMT

Holding two completely incompatible ideas in your mind at the same time has become essential for investors since the pandemic began. It can’t be a good thing that 4.5 million people have died of Covid worldwide but, at the same time, it’s hard to argue that it’s not good to see global stock market valuations up by $30 trillion over the same period. And while it’s been wonderful for investors to have been bailed out by the actions of governments and central banks, it cannot be good that this expenditure - also about $30 trillion as it happens - was entirely financed by government debt and central banks’ money-printing.

Stocks featured:

Alcoa, Bank of America, Citigroup, Deere & Co, Glencore, Goldman Sachs, Kellogg Co, Microsoft, Morgan Stanley and Virgin Galactic Holdings

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A hint of stagflation in the air

Tue, 12 Oct 2021 11:46:30 GMT

It was a dismal week for forecasts of economic growth as investors grappled with the new reality that, just as governments are reducing Covid-related support for households, their purchasing power is also being squeezed by the surge in inflation. There is a hint of stagflation in the air, and it doesn’t help that the post- lockdown rebound in consumer spending had already failed to meet expectations.

Stocks featured:

Abbott Laboratories, DiaSorin, Merck & Co, Moderna, Nike, Pfizer, Qiagen and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufaturing

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Surging costs in the energy sector

Tue, 05 Oct 2021 09:46:02 GMT

The credibility of central bankers took another knock last week, as surging costs in the energy sector not only increased estimates for peak inflation, but also prolonged the peaks themselves. It was always the case that the post-lockdown economic rebound would be accompanied by growing pains, but now the growth impetus is fading and the growing pains are taking centre stage.

Stocks featured:

Daimler, Facebook, Mercedes, Merck & Co, Sunac China Holdings and Tesla

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Equities climb a "wall of worry"

Wed, 29 Sep 2021 09:41:11 GMT

Having wobbled the previous week, equities climbed the proverbial “wall of worry”, shrugging off poor economic data, tighter monetary policy and further Chinese discomfort in order to recapture lost ground. European surveys of business activity disappointed expectations, confirming that the post-lockdown boom is over.

Stocks featured:

Evergrande, Google, Nike, Sunac China Holdings, Tesla, Universal Music Group, Vivendi and Warner Music Group

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.